Difference between revisions of "How to Invent the Future I - CS183F"

Revision as of 21:24, 20 November 2021

12:23:41.218 VM76169:53

We have Alan Kay with us this week, he's going to do both lectures.

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Alan Kay has forgotten more about how to invent the future than progressives

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>> That would make a very bad class, Sam,

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[LAUGH] >> [LAUGH] I think Alan is the genuine

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world expert on this.

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Invented with others, the Xerox Alto, which we recently restored at

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Y Combinator with a group of incredible computer scientists.

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And I think it's the person who has been most thoughtful, probably with anyone I've

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ver met, about how you build organizations to do real innovations.

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So thank you very much for coming, I am super excited to hear this.

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So, I'm thoughtful about it because I got to watch masters do it.

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I'm basically a research scientist, but

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I was interested in the process done by far better managers than me,

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who could deal with larger sets of ideas.

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And I'll try and give you a gist here.

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Basically, I think,

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people are here because they want to do startups and make money.

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I just want to point out that if you want to make money,

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don't bother with a startup.

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Create an industry, because then you get trillions instead of billions.

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So it's about a factor of a thousand between doing invention over innovation.

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In other words, not going incrementally from the present but

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carving out a whole new set of ideas that creates an entirely new context.

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And we'll see some of the ways to go about it and

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we'll also see some of the barriers.

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And see if this, no.

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This got a bad user interface,

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because it has the back button near to the front button.

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See if that works, so.

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A lot of what these two days are about are talking

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about the place that most people naturally live, which is the present.

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But the problem with the present, it is so glittery and distracting, there's so

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That it's hard to think about anything except the present.

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And if you're thinking about the present,

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your ideas are going to be derived from the present.

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And therefore, you wind up doing innovation,

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not that you can't make money that way, but.

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Today, I'm going to do the opposite of my usual order,

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I usually like to build a lot of context first.

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But I thought in the spirit of the Harvard Business School and the equivalent at

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Stanford, I'd start off with things like results and process and methods first.

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So you have a feeling that I'm actually [COUGH] saying something that you might

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But the important talk is really on Thursday,

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I'm still struggling with making it the right size.

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So today we're going to do that, and I urge you to copy my email address.

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A lot of you emails, we're not going to have time

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to have the discussion we should have here.

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I welcome any questions and by the way, while I'm talking,

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Okay and here's why school pisses me off.

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A great man in our field, Marvin Minsky observed that this is the best place ever

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to keep you from ever thinking about anything for long enough.

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So you don't want to try and learn in a classroom, it's terrible.

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In fact, I don't like to do classroom process,

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partly because of the time constraints.

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But also because it's oral,

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we might as well be sitting around a campfire, a hundred thousand years ago.

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And almost everything that's happened that's important in the last

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several thousand of years, has been basically, literary informed.

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Okay, so one of my favorite Picasso sayings,

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and he meant a lot of different things by this.

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Part of it is the best you can ever do with any kind of representation is make

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a kind of a map, even when you're trying to make a map of a map.

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You're making a lie compared to the thing you're trying to represent.

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But if you do it right,

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people can gain some intuition about what the map is about.

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That's what science is all about.

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This talk in 50 minutes has to be a lie, it really is.

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I'm leaving out a lot of important things.

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But I think the shadow of the talk or whatever is projected by the talk is

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pretty close to the way things actually are for doing this very different process.

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And I think Picasso didn't say, but he knew and

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he meant, is art is also the lie that tells the truth that wakes you up.

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So if something wakes you up in the next two days, I will have done my job.

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And then, the two days are really about another Picasso quote which is,

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learn the rules like a pro so you can break them like an artist.

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And not doing this is probably the greatest sin of Silicon Valley

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since the 80s.

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Almost never, nobody has bothered becoming a pro particularly in software and

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user interface design.

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So when they break the rules,

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they're breaking them like a dumb child does by throwing rocks through windows.

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And it's probably the most sickening thing to see about the field.

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So another way of thinking about the mantra is,

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you have to learn everything and then find a way of forgetting it.

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So you can have your own ideas, but

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what you forget is everything except the perfume.

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So when you have an idea then your nose will pick up the right scent.

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And you'll be able to make use of all of the stuff that you've learned after you've

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I was specifically asked to talk about Xerox PARC

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because that was an example of making trillions instead of billions.

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And, so I thought what I'll do here is just show

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you a couple of results, from Xerox PARC.

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And I'll then try to give you some of what it took to get those results.

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So, Xerox PARC is known for this machine that happened, I gave one to Sam.

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He got it working with the help of some really great people.

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So this machine happened in 1973 which is 11 years before the Mac, and

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its screen was more than twice the size of the Mac.

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It was more like a Mac of 1988 or 1989.

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So it was about maybe 15 or 16 years ahead of the commercial development.

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And the commercial development,

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actually, was based on the stuff that was done on this machine.

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So this is an example of the best way to predict the future is to invent it.

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There's nothing like this before.

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Once we did it, people could see, yeah,

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there could be something like this because here it is.

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In fact, we made 2000 of these, so there's a lot to look at.

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They have bit map screens, they had pointing device.

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The famous GUI, which you're still using today.

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WYSIWYG means what you see is what you get.

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Desktop publishing and the whole media gig.

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What does that say?

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That's not helping me, anybody read that?

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>> Symmetrical reading and writing.

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>> Yeah, symmetrical reading and writing.

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Meaning what you almost never get on the web, but that you did get in

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many of the apps of the 1980s, which is when you get a document,

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the thing that you read the document with also allows you to edit the document.

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So if you think about the web, it's actually much more made for

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consumption than it is made for authoring, they're completely decoupled.

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And most of the authoring facilities are typing in tiny little windows, and

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then pushing a button to see what you did.

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we just called it object oriented programming back then.

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I made up that term.

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But what's called object oriented programming today is

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And I don't think I'll have time to really talk about the profound difference.

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So if I have to say that what we did at PARC became popular, and

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Comparison is you can go out and buy a set of designer jeans with the label Harvard

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on them, and for all I know with Stanford on them.

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Laser printer, main difference between this and

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what you have today is the first one was a page a second.

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So most people have never printed with a page a second printer.

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Peer-peer and client server, and 50% of the Internet.

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PARC did an Internet before there was the Internet.

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And we're part of that community, so we participated in the official Internet.

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So we think of that as eight and a half inventions.

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How long did it take?

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Think about that.

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Two dozen people did all of these things in about five years.

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Cost about 10 million to 12 million bucks a year in today's money.

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Return is about 35 trillion, this is an old number,

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it's probably more like 40 now.

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So that's pretty good return on investment if you think about it.

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If you like to do little spreadsheets and stuff.

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15% is good, right Sam?

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Yeah, so, and it was an industry rather than an increment.

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People say, well, but Xerox didn't benefit from this.

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They didn't make any money for it, that's complete ****.

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It's made up by companies that don't want to invest in research.

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Xerox made about a factor of 250 over their entire

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investment in PARC, so that's 25,000% return right there.

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Xerox's bug was they didn't understand the rest of this stuff, but they

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certainly understood what a laser printer was, and they made billions from it.

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And in fact, if you look at it, it was better for

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the world that they stonewalled us,

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because no single company can handle an entire industry.

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So this is made it possible: the Japanese had to do printers slightly,

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And this, kind of heaven on Earth, lasted for about 12 years,

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Xerox finally fired the guy who made it all happen.

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You're thinking, he would have been rewarded,

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right, because he made all this stuff happen, but in fact, they hated him.

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And they hated him for

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the very reason that most companies hate people who are doing something different,

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because it makes middle management and upper management extremely uncomfortable.

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What they want to do is make a few millions in a comfortable way.

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And so this leads to an enormous problem that where

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the real job of upper management in the 20 and 21st century is to learn things,

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because change is the constant thing that's going on.

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What they tried to do is to maximize whatever they had when they got

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If you think about it, if large companies were actually rational,

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There'd be no startups, because large companies have vastly more resources for

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doing new things than any venture capitalist, right Sam?

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They've got gazillions of money, but because they refuse to get into

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new businesses and refuse to change their old businesses, you guys have a chance.

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So, just pray that they don't ever wake up.

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Now, the interesting thing is if you look at that collection of inventions,

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And what's interesting is if I were to enlarge this a bit, I would show that

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here's hardly been anything interesting invented since this funding stopped.

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So it's been a nuke, basically a nuclear winter of

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people cashing in on these inventions, and extracting the wealth from them, but

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hardly, any efforts of any interesting kind to go beyond them.

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And last point here is the lack of curiosity.

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I met Sam, because he wanted to know where'd all this stuff come from?

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I've hardly ever been asked that question.

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It's the most successful generation of wealth in computing history,

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and almost nobody wants to know, Sam did.

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And the difficult thing about today and Thursday is the world that you grew up in,

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because I don't see anybody, is anybody here older than 35?

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Okay, yeah, I see a little more reflectivity back there.

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>> [LAUGH] >> Yeah, so

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almost everybody in the room grew up in a world that was unlike the world I'm

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going to just tell you about now.

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So it's just many, many things were qualitatively different in ways that

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are sometimes difficult to explain.

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This is why lectures suck.

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This is a 500 page book done very carefully

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about the whole story of ARPA and Xerox PARC.

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Anybody who's really interested, read this book.

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And this is a tribute I wrote to this whole research

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community about I don't know 14, 15 years ago.

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And I'll hand it out at the end of the class, and

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the main thing that is interesting about it perhaps is the bibliography,

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which has a lot of references on more detailed things you can read

12:38:47.258 VM76169:53

about how this particular community operated, right?

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And the important thing about Xerox PARC, which is not emphasized enough,

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is that PARC was just another one of the ARPA research projects.

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So there's eight years of research before PARC happened.

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Nobody wanted to try to do this stuff inside of a company.

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everything else are really antithetical to long range thinking.

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So this stuff was all funded by Cold War funds in the public domain.

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So none of the IP was kept secret, but it was done in a better rhythm.

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So to get the 35 trillion, it actually required not five years,

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We were lucky researchers who got our PhDs in this process and

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we're the right age to go to park and finish it off.

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Right and as we'll see I'm not going to dwell on it much more but

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he circa of this way of doing things goes back,

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especially to the radar effort at MIT and

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the air defense effort and then upper and the park.

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So there is a long continuity here of kind of how do you,

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work on things that are, That are doable but where you have to

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invent several generations of technology to get to the thing that's doable.

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12:40:32.259 VM76169:53

So most of these things are not doable with the technology that's lying around.

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That is the problem with these hard problems.

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Okay, so the general world, the normal world.

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The present, for most of this period,

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was either punch card accounting machines, or their replacement.

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After IBM said famously they'll no, there's no room for more than five or

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six computers in the entire world,

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they wound up doing the first mass produced computer, the 1401.

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To replace their punch card machines before other computer companies did.

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So they did a sort of Trump like reversal, on their belief and

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the bound up owning the 60s and much of the 70s.

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And most important thing, this is a dumb sentence because,

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you don't know what these machines were like.

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So I realized after I put it in there that, why did I even put this in, right?

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But the way I look at what's going on at any given time,

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whether it's today, 30 or 40 years ago.

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Is whatever's going on right now is just crap, by definition.

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If we know about it, except in the 1/10 of 1% or

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1000 of 1%, it's gotten mundane.

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And part of it is just because of the bell curve of normality in humans.

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Whatever it is, it gets converted to something like normal.

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No matter how exciting it is.

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And so when things are widely successful they tend to bring up the mean

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of the bell curve a little bit, for everybody, raises all boats.

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But in fact, there's also this regression to the mean on almost all of these things.

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So living in the present, man,

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you're just out of it if you're trying to think about things from what we have now.

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There's the bomb project and the radar project at MIT,

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that had roughly the same process, roughly the same difficulty.

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You have to realize the US was in World War II for only about two and

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Pearl Harbour was December of 1941 and

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so we had 42, 43, 44, three and a half years.

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And a lot of things got done the Most interesting thing is for

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the first time in history, really, a lot of really good scientists and

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a lot of really good engineers started working together and cloning each other.

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So seven Nobel Prizes came out of the building 20.

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Because they were physicists who put on their engineering hats.

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12:43:38.261 VM76169:53

To make 185 different kinds of radar systems and

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install them in every size of building and plane and boat.

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And World War II was basically a war of supply.

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And it was the ability to a Stave

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off the German submarines that had actually won the war for us.

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Most people don't think of it that way.

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But that's what happened.

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So in the circa I'm talking about I came out of this group and

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there's a couple of good books about how these people went about doing things.

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Maybe the number one thing is what I have on right hand side is basically he said,

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It doesn't matter who you are, how smart you are,

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how smart you think you are, there's only one thing that counts here,

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is making progress and we make progress through synergy and

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12:44:32.261 VM76169:53

they learned how to do this and they passed it on generation, after generation.

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Well the next round of this, after World War II, was the cold war.

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And the air defense system that was done in the 50s.

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And again at MIT, the first displays that you could interact with.

12:44:53.263 VM76169:53

That is essentially a stylus in the guy's hand, it was called a light gun.

12:44:56.262 VM76169:53

So he's pointing at something on the screen and squeezing the trigger.

12:45:02.261 VM76169:53

Like you would put a Silas down and push it down and

12:45:05.263 VM76169:53

the light gun can tell, computer can tell what the light gun is working at.

12:45:11.263 VM76169:53

So you can do all of the stuff, that you're used to today.

12:45:14.262 VM76169:53

To give you an idea of what these guys did,

12:45:17.263 VM76169:53

I can't really see what this is right?

12:45:23.264 VM76169:53

It's just like it's obviously four floors of a building.

12:45:29.263 VM76169:53

And if you notice the second floor, it says computer A and computer B.

12:45:32.262 VM76169:53

Each one of those computers had 50,000 vacuum tubes.

12:45:35.263 VM76169:53

12:45:38.263 VM76169:53

Both running the same programs at the same time and many

12:45:41.264 VM76169:53

other interesting things I don't have time to talk about but, I'll just say that when

12:45:47.263 VM76169:53

one of these computers started crashing it took it three or four days to crash.

12:45:50.262 VM76169:53

And the reason is, it was running diagnostics on itself.

12:45:53.263 VM76169:53

And every time an instruction failed, it would patch

12:45:59.264 VM76169:53

in a simulated instruction based on what instructions were still working.

12:46:02.262 VM76169:53

So what would happen is the machine would just get slower and

12:46:05.263 VM76169:53

more software-like.

12:46:08.263 VM76169:53

More like a Turing machine and usually they could fix it before

12:46:11.262 VM76169:53

it came all the way down, meanwhile the other one was still working.

12:46:14.262 VM76169:53

But, even though I shouldn't be digressing,

12:46:17.263 VM76169:53

there's a fun thing here, there were 32 of these concrete bunkers made.

12:46:23.263 VM76169:53

So the two interesting things, what happened to this stuff, anybody know?

12:46:29.264 VM76169:53

Does this look like anything you've ever seen before?

12:46:35.264 VM76169:53

>> No, that's, but- >> Airline meter, sorry.

12:46:38.263 VM76169:53

>> Yeah, yeah, this actually was the invention of our,

12:46:44.264 VM76169:53

air traffic control system.

12:46:47.263 VM76169:53

That's what it was designed to do, except that it was designed to control

12:46:50.264 VM76169:53

traffic of both American and Russian bombers and

12:46:56.263 VM76169:53

in fact, if many of the displays before they replace them with flat screen.

12:47:02.263 VM76169:53

Displays is basically the same big round.

12:47:05.263 VM76169:53

So this whole system last until 1982.

12:47:11.264 VM76169:53

When the last one was finally decommissioned and 50,000 vacuum tubes.

12:47:17.263 VM76169:53

They're like incandescent light bulbs.

12:47:20.264 VM76169:53

They blow out, so they're always blowing out.

12:47:23.265 VM76169:53

So, of course, there are redundant ones there.

12:47:26.263 VM76169:53

Where did we get the vacuum tubes from?

12:47:32.263 VM76169:53

Think about it, all the way through the 70s.

12:47:35.265 VM76169:53

>> [INAUDIBLE] >> [INAUDIBLE]

12:47:38.263 VM76169:53

no transistors in these machines.

12:47:41.264 VM76169:53

No transistors, these are- >> Russia.

12:47:47.265 VM76169:53

I heard it before.

12:47:50.264 VM76169:53

>> Yeah.

12:47:53.264 VM76169:53

>> [LAUGH] >> That's good, and you remember it.

12:47:56.263 VM76169:53

>> For the last 12 or 18 years of this defense system,

12:48:02.263 VM76169:53

which was never used against the Russians ever, because they never tried to bomb us.

12:48:05.265 VM76169:53

And was actually obsolete very soon because of ICBMs, it couldn't track them.

12:48:11.265 VM76169:53

There's a whole other system for doing that, yeah.

12:48:14.263 VM76169:53

But we kept it going and there are reasons why it was kept going.

12:48:20.265 VM76169:53

We bought while we're still contending in the Russia for

12:48:23.265 VM76169:53

the cold war, we buying vacuum tubes from them too.

12:48:26.264 VM76169:53

By the way, people still keep buying vacuum tubes from the Russians for

12:48:29.265 VM76169:53

12:48:32.265 VM76169:53

Getting old 50s guitar amp sounds.

12:48:35.265 VM76169:53

Those overdriven sounds.

12:48:38.264 VM76169:53

And this guy, who was one of the inventors of artificial intelligence, and

12:48:44.264 VM76169:53

the inventor of the programming language LISP, John McCarthy, looked at one

12:48:47.266 VM76169:53

of these in the 50s and said, Everybody is going to have one in their home someday.

12:48:53.265 VM76169:53

Because he didn't give a **** about

12:48:59.265 VM76169:53

Because what he thought was, yeah, this is like a electric power generating station.

12:49:08.265 VM76169:53

Nobody ever sees them but they're out there.

12:49:11.265 VM76169:53

We have wires going to the home for,

12:49:14.264 VM76169:53

it's like where we get our water from, it's where we get our gas from.

12:49:17.265 VM76169:53

The utilities, so he thought there would be an information utility, and

12:49:23.265 VM76169:53

it will actually be a human right, like the telephone, to have

12:49:29.265 VM76169:53

one of these things In your home that is connected to all the worlds information.

12:49:32.264 VM76169:53

12:49:35.264 VM76169:53

So that was one of the earliest and most influential ideas.

12:49:41.265 VM76169:53

1962, I'm going to show you a system done on one of these super computers.

12:49:47.265 VM76169:53

This is done on the test computer at Lincoln Labs for this whole SAGE system so

12:49:53.266 VM76169:53

this computer was close to the size of this entire building.

12:49:59.266 VM76169:53

With one guy on it, yeah at 3 o'clock in the morning.

12:50:02.264 VM76169:53

So, take a look at this.

12:50:05.266 VM76169:53

This is Ivan Sutherland.

12:50:11.266 VM76169:53

So, it doesn't really even have a display.

12:50:14.265 VM76169:53

It's actually simulating a computer display here.

12:50:20.266 VM76169:53

So, what Ivan wants to do, is to draw a flange and so he says,

12:50:26.265 VM76169:53

Now take these guys and make them all mutually perpendicular and

12:50:29.266 VM76169:53

12:50:32.265 VM76169:53

wow, sketch pad just solved that problem.

12:50:35.266 VM76169:53

So it's a dynamic problem solver in there.

12:50:38.266 VM76169:53

First window then clipped.

12:50:41.266 VM76169:53

Now it wants to put a hole in the flange.

12:50:44.266 VM76169:53

So these are guidelines.

12:50:47.266 VM76169:53

and the first thing he does is said, okay, I want to make this parallel.

12:50:50.266 VM76169:53

And you see, sketch pad keeps them on the line there and lines them up.

12:50:56.266 VM76169:53

And now, he's using them as guidelines to draw a dash lines.

12:51:08.266 VM76169:53

You see here, he misses Whoop, okay.

12:51:14.269 VM76169:53

They're still there.

12:51:17.266 VM76169:53

The constraint was co-linearity there.

12:51:23.266 VM76169:53

And he has a knob to continuously zoom.

12:51:26.286 VM76169:53

So this is the first computer graphics ever.

12:51:32.265 VM76169:53

And he wants some rivets to go along with that flange, and so again he,

12:51:35.266 VM76169:53

12:51:38.265 VM76169:53

this is why this system is called a sketch pad because you just casually draw.

12:51:41.266 VM76169:53

Just going to use that as the center for the ark here.

12:51:50.266 VM76169:53

And again he's going to say, take these guys and

12:51:53.267 VM76169:53

make them mutually perpendicular and here sketch pad solves that problem.

12:51:56.266 VM76169:53

So you wind up with a symmetric object.

12:51:59.266 VM76169:53

And he can change things and

12:52:05.267 VM76169:53

he'll get another solution.

12:52:11.266 VM76169:53

He could have constrained the side links to be ratios of each other.

12:52:20.266 VM76169:53

And the kind of problem solving this system could do,

12:52:23.266 VM76169:53

well included non linear problems.

12:52:29.267 VM76169:53

And what's cool about this, that is a master rivet,

12:52:32.267 VM76169:53

what we'd call a class in object oriented programming.

12:52:38.267 VM76169:53

So this is not that rivet, but an instance of that master rivet.

12:52:47.266 VM76169:53

>> Well it's putting up every dot individually,

12:52:50.266 VM76169:53

at about half the power of this super computer is being used to just do that.

12:52:56.266 VM76169:53

So here another instance, another rivet.

12:52:59.267 VM76169:53

Here is another one, here's another one.

12:53:05.267 VM76169:53

And he says whoops I didn't want to have those crossbars there, so

12:53:08.266 VM76169:53

I'll go back to the master rivet and make the crossbars invisible.

12:53:11.266 VM76169:53

They're still there but invisible, and we see the instances.

12:53:17.267 VM76169:53

Maybe nicer than you've seen it.

12:53:23.266 VM76169:53

Get rid of those guys and now,

12:53:26.268 VM76169:53

that construction that he made, he's made it into a master.

12:53:29.268 VM76169:53

12:53:32.268 VM76169:53

So he can make instances of it.

12:53:35.266 VM76169:53

Okay, get the idea?

12:53:38.266 VM76169:53

>> I had a question.

12:53:41.268 VM76169:53

>> Yes. >> [INAUDIBLE] Sort of regressed

12:53:44.268 VM76169:53

from here >> Well anybody in this class ever seen

12:53:53.268 VM76169:53

Okay, so that's part of the answer.

12:53:59.268 VM76169:53

Yeah we'll go along, it's sort of the larger question that we have.

12:54:02.267 VM76169:53

It's worthwhile bringing up the question He's rotating three of them.

12:54:11.268 VM76169:53

So, this is the most shocking thing I;d ever seen when I went to graduate

12:54:14.268 VM76169:53

This was, the system was only three years old at that time.

12:54:23.267 VM76169:53

And I've been programming for five years and just for

12:54:26.268 VM76169:53

conventional programming and seeing this, it blew my mind.

12:54:29.268 VM76169:53

Because it was exactly different than everything I thought about computing.

12:54:32.268 VM76169:53

12:54:35.269 VM76169:53

As soon as I saw I, I realized yeah, of course you can do that.

12:54:41.268 VM76169:53

But I didn't think about that.

12:54:50.267 VM76169:53

Okay so Sketchpad, interactive computer graphics in a way we recognize today.

12:54:56.269 VM76169:53

For the first time, objects, masters and instances.

12:55:02.268 VM76169:53

The programming was not done by the kind of programming today, but

12:55:05.269 VM76169:53

by problem solving, which I think you can imagine is much nicer.

12:55:08.269 VM76169:53

Like it will find the solution.

12:55:11.267 VM76169:53

And it creates automatic dynamics simulations,

12:55:17.267 VM76169:53

When you draw the bridge in, it knows how to simulate the bridge and

12:55:26.268 VM76169:53

So I said to Ivan, Ivan you did all of this and what is this PhD thesis?

12:55:29.269 VM76169:53

12:55:32.264 VM76169:53

Said, you did all this in one year by yourself, how could you possibly do it?

12:55:35.261 VM76169:53

And he said, well, I didn't know it was hard.

12:55:38.256 VM76169:53

>> [LAUGH] >> He just went after what the problem is.

12:55:44.252 VM76169:53

because you can see there are things that are of absolute goodness still today.

12:55:47.249 VM76169:53

It's not just relatively good for being done more than 50 years,

12:55:53.247 VM76169:53

And his thesis is, every other page is an apology because it doesn't do more.

12:55:59.244 VM76169:53

He wasn't working out what you could do, he was working on the problem.

12:56:05.243 VM76169:53

Yeah, so sketch pad was a bombshell in

12:56:11.243 VM76169:53

because right away, you were looking at the future.

12:56:17.242 VM76169:53

You just had to believe that a building sized computer was going to

12:56:23.241 VM76169:53

wind up on a laptop, or even something in a desk.

12:56:29.241 VM76169:53

So the main player here back then was a guy by the name of Lick.

12:56:32.240 VM76169:53

12:56:35.241 VM76169:53

Licklider, he got given some money in 1962 by ARPA before the day,

12:56:41.241 VM76169:53

and when anybody asked him what are you going to do, this is what he would say.

12:56:47.240 VM76169:53

Computers are destined to become interactive intellectual amplifiers for

12:56:53.241 VM76169:53

everyone in the world, universally networked worldwide.

12:56:59.241 VM76169:53

Simply gave out money.

12:57:05.240 VM76169:53

but this is a perfect class I think to put bullet points in.

12:57:11.240 VM76169:53

And I found 16, that will tell you just what you have to do.

12:57:20.241 VM76169:53

So the first thing, was just picking an idea that's worth dedicating your life,

12:57:23.240 VM76169:53

if necessary to.

12:57:29.240 VM76169:53

So, this stuff was human destiny,

12:57:32.241 VM76169:53

fixing big human problems, like we can't think very well.

12:57:35.240 VM76169:53

We need to make things to help us to think,

12:57:38.239 VM76169:53

we need to make things to help us cooperate.

12:57:41.241 VM76169:53

So these were save the world kind of ideas and they were done when the Russians where

12:57:47.240 VM76169:53

starting to test hydrogen bombs and things did not look so good.

12:57:56.241 VM76169:53

the problem is that goals tend to be much more idiosyncratic to individual humans.

12:58:02.239 VM76169:53

So research wants to be a vision.

12:58:05.241 VM76169:53

So notice there aren't any goals in the ARPA dream.

12:58:08.241 VM76169:53

And that allowed Licklider to fund 15 or 20 super

12:58:14.239 VM76169:53

smart people who thought they had ways of approaching the dream.

12:58:17.241 VM76169:53

And some of these people didn't [BLANK AUDIO] agree, and

12:59:05.241 VM76169:53

some of them hated each other.

12:59:08.241 VM76169:53

And Lick didn't give a ****, he just wanted smart people working on this dream.

12:59:14.239 VM76169:53

So fund people, not projects.

12:59:17.241 VM76169:53

ARPA never decided.

12:59:20.240 VM76169:53

And we'll see a slight modification of this.

12:59:23.241 VM76169:53

But basically, fund people, not projects.

12:59:32.241 VM76169:53

So, if you know, MacArthur grants are for individuals.

12:59:35.241 VM76169:53

But this funding was funding groups.

12:59:38.240 VM76169:53

Like you fund in MacArthur, just five years, forget it.

12:59:44.241 VM76169:53

Nobody at MacArthur asks, you don't get a second MacArthur grant.

12:59:47.239 VM76169:53

Here, they would get another grant if they'd done something good in five years,

12:59:50.241 VM76169:53

but basically the idea of MacArthur is throw away.

12:59:56.241 VM76169:53

We've identified this person of extreme potential, let's just give him five years

12:59:59.240 VM76169:53

of funding and we won't cry if they don't do anything.

13:00:02.239 VM76169:53

It turns out most MacArthur people do something because the people that

13:00:08.239 VM76169:53

tract attention are people who are not working for money.

13:00:14.240 VM76169:53

they are people like artists are people who do their art because they must.

13:00:17.241 VM76169:53

13:00:23.240 VM76169:53

Community not a project, have to fund problem finding,

13:00:32.241 VM76169:53

Most of the time, when you are working on hard problems,

13:00:35.240 VM76169:53

you don't know what the right problem is.

13:00:41.240 VM76169:53

If you pick a problem too early you might be picking it out of the current context.

13:00:47.239 VM76169:53

And therefore, you're going to be hampered unless you are incredibly lucky.

13:00:50.240 VM76169:53

So ARPA put a lot of money into just people thinking around with stuff.

13:00:56.241 VM76169:53

Milestones not deadlines.

13:01:02.239 VM76169:53

Meaning, when you lose a stroke in golf, you cry.

13:01:08.241 VM76169:53

When, you strike out in baseball, you better not cry, because you're going to do

13:01:11.241 VM76169:53

it a lot, and this is what Licklider said to them.

13:01:14.240 VM76169:53

13:01:17.241 VM76169:53

He said look, if you're batting 3.50 in baseball, you're really doing well.

13:01:23.241 VM76169:53

And if you look at what we're funding if we bat 3.50,

13:01:26.240 VM76169:53

That's what happened.

13:01:29.239 VM76169:53

Nobody cares about all the stuff that didn't work.

13:01:32.239 VM76169:53

And people said, well what about the 65% failure?

13:01:35.239 VM76169:53

And they said, well it's not failure in baseball, it's overhead.

13:01:41.241 VM76169:53

Hitting a ball is hard, when you're doing something really, really hard, the times

13:01:47.241 VM76169:53

you don't do it well is just overhead for doing it the times you do well.

13:01:50.240 VM76169:53

And this is probably the biggest distinction that business people do

13:01:53.241 VM76169:53

not understand.

13:01:56.241 VM76169:53

because what they want is actually teeny,

13:01:59.241 VM76169:53

little uninteresting projects that are guaranteed for your success.

13:02:05.241 VM76169:53

Sports is really hard, and most sports people are not succeeding all the time.

13:02:11.240 VM76169:53

13:02:14.239 VM76169:53

What's the thing in baseball, it's called an error?

13:02:17.240 VM76169:53

Like what?

13:02:20.241 VM76169:53

>> [INAUDIBLE] >> No, just fielding.

13:02:23.241 VM76169:53

>> Yeah, what's an error in baseball?

13:02:26.240 VM76169:53

Not catching a fly ball.

13:02:29.242 VM76169:53

How good are the average fielders?

13:02:32.239 VM76169:53

They're 98.5% effective.

13:02:38.240 VM76169:53

So, really good ones are like one percent error and so an error and

13:02:41.239 VM76169:53

technical stuff is designed to build a computer system and failing to build it.

13:02:47.241 VM76169:53

Like anybody should be, decide to build a software and failing to build it.

13:02:53.240 VM76169:53

But you're in this other range when you're trying to do design.

13:02:59.240 VM76169:53

So, here's a memo Lick wrote in 63,

13:03:05.241 VM76169:53

shortly after he got this initial money from ARPA to members and

13:03:11.240 VM76169:53

affiliates of the Intergalactic Computing Network.

13:03:17.240 VM76169:53

He said, well engineers always give you the minimum, and I want a network that

13:03:23.240 VM76169:53

spans the entire planet, so I'm asking for an intergalactic one.

13:03:26.239 VM76169:53

And when they scale it down, we'll still get, so

13:03:29.241 VM76169:53

that's where the internet came from, literally.

13:03:32.239 VM76169:53

The original name of the Internet was the intergalactic computing,

13:03:35.241 VM76169:53

nobody knew how to do it back then.

13:03:38.240 VM76169:53

For instance, packet switching had not been invented in 63.

13:03:44.240 VM76169:53

And here's a nice line in that memo, if we succeed in making an intergalactic

13:03:47.239 VM76169:53

network, then our our main problem will be learning to communicate with aliens.

13:03:50.241 VM76169:53

And he meant this in the biggest possible way, and

13:03:53.241 VM76169:53

I don't have time to really explain it, it's really interesting.

13:03:56.241 VM76169:53

People who are interested in this should write me an email.

13:04:02.240 VM76169:53

He meant other software, other computers.

13:04:05.242 VM76169:53

He meant what does it mean to communicate when you scale things up?

13:04:11.242 VM76169:53

So this guy was a big thinker.

13:04:14.241 VM76169:53

That's of course referring to Washington, DC.

13:04:17.241 VM76169:53

But this is a general principle.

13:04:20.241 VM76169:53

They asked him why, and he said, well, because there's too much noise.

13:04:23.240 VM76169:53

There's just too much politics.

13:04:26.242 VM76169:53

And nobody does research in Washington, DC.

13:04:32.241 VM76169:53

So the last thing we want to do, as our profounders, is to try and

13:04:35.241 VM76169:53

Our job is to get money out of the government and pass it along.

13:04:38.242 VM76169:53

And so a solution to that would say, hey let's not be here for

13:04:44.240 VM76169:53

And so every two years, so Lick set up the process to get his successor,

13:04:50.240 VM76169:53

happened that Ivan Sutherland got drafted into the army at just the right time.

13:04:56.241 VM76169:53

at age 26 Ivan ran this whole show and man was he good.

13:05:05.240 VM76169:53

He was a second lieutenant sharing meetings with generals and

13:05:11.241 VM76169:53

one of the most famous things recalled of that.

13:05:14.240 VM76169:53

Some general was going on and on at some point Ivan said,

13:05:17.241 VM76169:53

general you have just two minutes to make your point if you have one.

13:05:23.241 VM76169:53

That's about the simplest way of describing Ivan.

13:05:26.241 VM76169:53

Bob Taylor and Larry Roberts.

13:05:32.241 VM76169:53

Taylor is special because he is also the guy who set up park.

13:05:38.239 VM76169:53

Licklider was intuitively wonderful,

13:05:41.241 VM76169:53

Taylor was a student of what was wonderful about Licklider.

13:05:44.241 VM76169:53

And he could explain everything that Licklider could do and why it worked.

13:05:50.239 VM76169:53

So here's a couple things, I'm not going to go about, but

13:05:56.241 VM76169:53

basically the idea here is it isn't like lets look around and

13:05:59.241 VM76169:53

see what is available and what we can do with it.

13:06:02.239 VM76169:53

The idea was stick with the vision and

13:06:05.241 VM76169:53

just make every frigging thing that's necessary.

13:06:11.241 VM76169:53

If we have to make a new kind of integrated circuit, we'll do it.

13:06:14.239 VM76169:53

All of these things were done.

13:06:17.241 VM76169:53

So it's very much like these other cultures where nobody worried about

13:06:23.241 VM76169:53

whether you had half centimeter radar in building 20 at MIT, they just did it.

13:06:29.240 VM76169:53

And here's one that is really a bug today.

13:06:32.241 VM76169:53

And if you don't have the chops, yeah you shouldn't make your tools,

13:06:35.241 VM76169:53

you shouldn't make your own operating system.

13:06:38.239 VM76169:53

You shouldn't make your own programming language because that's not what you're

13:06:41.241 VM76169:53

If you do have the chops, and you better not do his unless you have the chops,

13:06:47.240 VM76169:53

then you have to make your own hardware and software and

13:06:50.240 VM76169:53

operating system in the programming languages.

13:06:53.241 VM76169:53

Otherwise you're working in the past on some vendor's bad idea of what

13:06:59.241 VM76169:53

So part of this deal, remember what Picasso said.

13:07:02.239 VM76169:53

You have to get really much, much better than

13:07:05.241 VM76169:53

what most people want to today, and here's another reversal.

13:07:11.240 VM76169:53

Today people buy hardware and

13:07:14.239 VM76169:53

put software on it basically to make the hardware look good.

13:07:17.241 VM76169:53

The ARPA community in part did exactly the opposite.

13:07:23.241 VM76169:53

Using super computers to simulate the thing.

13:07:29.241 VM76169:53

then you'd design the computer that would optimize and

13:07:35.241 VM76169:53

That is what Sketchpad was.

13:07:38.241 VM76169:53

Nobody thought that the next graphic systems were going to be done on

13:07:47.241 VM76169:53

Okay, and then make a bunch of them.

13:07:50.239 VM76169:53

So almost every project in the ARPA project,

13:07:53.241 VM76169:53

they actually made enough of them so they could be used as tools.

13:07:56.241 VM76169:53

They weren't just demos.

13:07:59.241 VM76169:53

And so part of this invention process had to require a kind of limited engineering.

13:08:05.241 VM76169:53

instance, had a thing where whatever you did you had to make 100 of them.

13:08:08.240 VM76169:53

Made an Ethernet, it had to run 100 machines.

13:08:11.241 VM76169:53

If you made a time sharing system, it had run 100 users.

13:08:14.239 VM76169:53

If you made a personal computer, you had to be able to build 100 of them.

13:08:20.241 VM76169:53

Learn how to argue.

13:08:26.239 VM76169:53

Argue for clarity, not to win.

13:08:29.240 VM76169:53

People are always contending with each other, trying to be winners and losers,

13:08:35.240 VM76169:53

and that's one of the problems with Washington,

13:08:41.241 VM76169:53

Now what you have to do is understand these complicated things.

13:08:44.241 VM76169:53

Here's a biggie, every researcher at Park was a second or

13:08:50.241 VM76169:53

third generation PhD that ARPA had created.

13:08:53.241 VM76169:53

Right, eight years.

13:08:56.241 VM76169:53

It wasn't just the stuff in the past.

13:08:59.240 VM76169:53

I'll show you a couple more of those, wow we're getting closed to, but

13:09:02.239 VM76169:53

it was creating the next generation.

13:09:08.240 VM76169:53

Baseball you have to develop talent going all the way the down to little league.

13:09:11.241 VM76169:53

13:09:14.239 VM76169:53

And they did and the other thing is a little difficult to,

13:09:17.240 VM76169:53

13:09:20.241 VM76169:53

some of you will understand this readily.

13:09:23.241 VM76169:53

That the reward of doing this stuff wasn't the reward of making it happen

13:09:26.239 VM76169:53

because a lot of times it didn't happen.

13:09:29.241 VM76169:53

It was a reward of actually being funded to work on what the actual problems were.

13:09:38.241 VM76169:53

I can't emphasize this too much.

13:09:41.246 VM76169:53

Working on what the problems actually are rather than something that's going to get

13:09:47.240 VM76169:53

a paper, something that's going to make you money, but taking big human problems.

13:09:53.241 VM76169:53

Could be something like drinkable water.

13:09:56.241 VM76169:53

For the 70% of the planet that doesn't have it.

13:09:59.241 VM76169:53

If you pick one of those things that's a great one, worth putting your life into.

13:10:05.241 VM76169:53

Okay, so background was partly tinkering.

13:10:14.239 VM76169:53

A lot of people came from New York, down where the world trade center was.

13:10:17.240 VM76169:53

Before the world trade center, there was about a mile across Manhattan Island that

13:10:23.241 VM76169:53

was nothing but electronic surplus stores.

13:10:26.239 VM76169:53

Mow a few lawns, put a dime into the subway and

13:10:29.241 VM76169:53

you could go down there and buy almost anything to mess around with.

13:10:35.241 VM76169:53

And that group got used to, everybody was broke.

13:10:41.241 VM76169:53

There was a kit to build your own oscilloscope.

13:10:47.241 VM76169:53

And if you wanted an oscilloscope and you were broke,

13:10:50.239 VM76169:53

you could get one of these on time for $30 or $40 bucks and build it.

13:10:56.241 VM76169:53

And I'm going to just

13:10:59.241 VM76169:53

put, these are just washed out anyway so I'm just going to go past.

13:11:08.241 VM76169:53

Okay, so Moore's Law, this was the original thing in Moore's paper.

13:11:11.241 VM76169:53

13:11:14.239 VM76169:53

Doubling every year.

13:11:17.240 VM76169:53

He picked MOS silicon which is too slow to make things out of, but

13:11:23.241 VM76169:53

Here's doubling every two years, and what happened.

13:11:29.241 VM76169:53

The prediction was 30 years and so what happened was, very in line

13:11:32.240 VM76169:53

with doubling every two years to every 18 months, and there is physics behind this.

13:11:41.240 VM76169:53

This wasn't just an engineering aspiration, and so

13:11:44.241 VM76169:53

if you believe this you had something really worthwhile.

13:11:47.241 VM76169:53

>> Set it up so I see it like that, that leaves a corner.

13:11:53.239 VM76169:53

>> I think you should see a little of this though,

13:11:56.241 VM76169:53

because the same time the mouse was invented this was done at Rand.

13:12:02.240 VM76169:53

well at midnight they will go through people's waste paper baskets.

13:12:08.240 VM76169:53

To see how they worked, what were they throwing away?

13:12:11.264 VM76169:53

And what people were doing when they were working was making all

13:12:14.241 VM76169:53

kinds of diagrams and little flowcharts and all this stuff.

13:12:17.241 VM76169:53

So they said, okay, well let's invent the first tablet,

13:12:20.240 VM76169:53

As good as most of the tablets you've ever used today.

13:12:26.240 VM76169:53

It's the hallmark of these people is they generally did it good enough and here's-

13:12:29.241 VM76169:53

>> You may start to edit the flow diagram.

13:12:35.241 VM76169:53

First we erase the flow arrow, then move the connector out of the way, so

13:12:38.239 VM76169:53

that we may draw a box in it's place.

13:12:44.241 VM76169:53

The printing in the box is being used as commentary only in this case.

13:12:50.239 VM76169:53

The box is slightly too large, so we may change its size.

13:12:56.241 VM76169:53

Then, draw a flow from the connector to the box.

13:13:02.240 VM76169:53

Attach a decision element to the box, and draw a flow from it to scan.

13:13:08.241 VM76169:53

We then erase the flow- >> Okay so this is about 1968 or so.

13:13:14.240 VM76169:53

Again on a big room sized mainframe, with one guy.

13:13:17.241 VM76169:53

13:13:20.241 VM76169:53

But, this system really, you could ask your question even more about this.

13:13:23.242 VM76169:53

This system was [LAUGH] one of the best systems I've ever used in every.

13:13:29.241 VM76169:53

It felt so intimate, it was so different from the mouse.

13:13:32.241 VM76169:53

It was one of the things that we actually looked at.

13:13:38.240 VM76169:53

I guess I do have to show the next thing here.

13:13:44.240 VM76169:53

Just so you think that VR wasn't something done recently.

13:13:47.240 VM76169:53

But the second thing Ivan did after he came back,

13:13:50.241 VM76169:53

the thing that when it came back from Arpo was to do these.

13:13:53.241 VM76169:53

I worked on this one when I was a graduate student.

13:13:56.241 VM76169:53

You could grab things and have the thing in your hand, grab things and

13:13:59.240 VM76169:53

move them around it.

13:14:02.239 VM76169:53

It's a little exciting because instead of the thing that you used to today.

13:14:05.241 VM76169:53

In the art had two CRTs with 15,000 volts right above your ears crackling away.

13:14:11.239 VM76169:53

So it was a very exciting thing to do and, of course,

13:14:14.239 VM76169:53

one of the hardest things was to do good head positioning back then.

13:14:17.241 VM76169:53

There are many ways of doing it.

13:14:20.240 VM76169:53

One of the things they did here, I won't explain what it is, but

13:14:23.241 VM76169:53

it was hooked to a crane.

13:14:26.241 VM76169:53

So as you walked around this big room at MIT,

13:14:29.240 VM76169:53

a crane would automatically follow you with the positioning thing over your head.

13:14:32.241 VM76169:53

To find out what this was about.

13:14:38.241 VM76169:53

And, man, I'm getting killed because I should stop right now.

13:14:44.240 VM76169:53

But I really have two more things to do, if you could give me two more minutes,

13:14:47.241 VM76169:53

First one here is, this is something you have to think about.

13:14:53.241 VM76169:53

Let time go one way, and progress go the other way.

13:14:59.241 VM76169:53

Yay boo, yay boo, it goes up it goes down.

13:15:02.240 VM76169:53

This is the way people tend to measure things.

13:15:05.241 VM76169:53

If you put in a threshold, then the only things above the threshold count.

13:15:11.241 VM76169:53

Like if these are reading scores, Nothing counts.

13:15:14.240 VM76169:53

13:15:17.241 VM76169:53

We, of course, never get above the threshold.

13:15:23.241 VM76169:53

And, what is actually needed changes over in time.

13:15:26.241 VM76169:53

You need more, and if you're measuring to a baseline, which people usually do.

13:15:32.241 VM76169:53

One of the ways of improving things, or

13:15:35.241 VM76169:53

making it look like you're not doing such a bad job is to lower the base line.

13:15:38.241 VM76169:53

For example, Apple completely lowered the base line on what

13:15:41.241 VM76169:53

constitutes reasonable user interface for iPhones and iPads.

13:15:47.239 VM76169:53

Interfaces on the system beforehand had an undo, and these don't.

13:15:50.240 VM76169:53

And I can name 15 more things.

13:15:56.241 VM76169:53

So what they did is they decided,

13:15:59.241 VM76169:53

well we're just not going to work on all of those problems anymore.

13:16:02.240 VM76169:53

We're going to condition the unsophisticated public

13:16:05.241 VM76169:53

to do work at the level of a two year old, or a 92 year old.

13:16:11.241 VM76169:53

And we're just going to eliminate everything in between.

13:16:14.239 VM76169:53

And the public has bought it,

13:16:17.241 VM76169:53

because you don't want to count noses when you're looking for quality.

13:16:20.239 VM76169:53

People can be talked into anything.

13:16:23.241 VM76169:53

So what you have to do on this stuff is you have to pick

13:16:26.239 VM76169:53

something that is absolutely above that line.

13:16:29.241 VM76169:53

We call that MacCready "Sweet Spot", he's the guy who did manpowered flight.

13:16:35.241 VM76169:53

And once you have achieved that, it opens up a whole region

13:16:38.241 VM76169:53

that you can explore, and that's what we did at park.

13:16:44.241 VM76169:53

At Moon Shot, was set space travel back 50 years.

13:16:50.241 VM76169:53

No we don't need a moon shot.

13:16:53.241 VM76169:53

You just don't do space travel with chemical rocketry.

13:16:56.241 VM76169:53

And what’s interesting about the people who like Jeff Besolson.

13:17:05.241 VM76169:53

Yeah, Elan, [LAUGH] they don't get it.

13:17:11.241 VM76169:53

Every child who read science fiction in the 50s knew this.

13:17:14.241 VM76169:53

13:17:17.241 VM76169:53

What that means is, you either have to carry a shitload of reaction mass with

13:17:23.241 VM76169:53

you, if you're doing chemicals, because you can't get the velocity high enough.

13:17:26.240 VM76169:53

So you have to put out a lot of mass, and if you do that you have to lift that mass.

13:17:29.241 VM76169:53

So you wind up with 45 story building rockets just to get into orbit.

13:17:35.241 VM76169:53

That is nuts.

13:17:38.240 VM76169:53

Anyway, I will not go on that.

13:17:41.239 VM76169:53

So, but the thing that was a tragedy was that they were very good proposals for

13:17:47.241 VM76169:53

how to get that high exhaust velocity Using various forms of atomic power.

13:17:53.241 VM76169:53

And it was something that the public was not interested in,

13:17:56.241 VM76169:53

the moon shot was not about space travel.

13:17:59.241 VM76169:53

Okay, so, I'll skip past this.

13:18:05.241 VM76169:53

Because I want to end with, yeah, here's, so

13:18:08.240 VM76169:53

this tablet computer I thought up in 1968.

13:18:11.241 VM76169:53

13:18:14.240 VM76169:53

One was the familiar tablet, and

13:18:17.241 VM76169:53

the other one was what Ivan's had mount of display was inevitable with Moore's Law.

13:18:23.241 VM76169:53

And then, Nicholas Negroponte had this idea of wearing a watch and

13:18:26.240 VM76169:53

communicating with the rest of the world.

13:18:29.241 VM76169:53

Okay, so here's the last little segment, and then I'll let you go.

13:18:35.241 VM76169:53

Wayne Gretzky, you know who Wayne Gretzky, is I'll bet.

13:18:38.240 VM76169:53

Greatest hockey player who ever lived.

13:18:41.241 VM76169:53

And he was just a little guy, he tried to avoid fights.

13:18:47.241 VM76169:53

They asked him why he took so many shots on goal.

13:18:50.241 VM76169:53

And he says, well you miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

13:18:56.241 VM76169:53

He scored more goals than anybody in history by a thousand.

13:18:59.241 VM76169:53

So, the fact that his percentage of

13:19:05.241 VM76169:53

misses was also high was irrelevant.

13:19:08.241 VM76169:53

And they asked him, why he was better than anybody else?

13:19:11.240 VM76169:53

And he said, well, a good hockey player goes to where the puck is,

13:19:14.240 VM76169:53

a great one goes to where the puck is going to be.

13:19:17.241 VM76169:53

And he didn't mean tracking the puck.

13:19:20.241 VM76169:53

He meant getting into a place where somebody could pass him the puck where

13:19:26.240 VM76169:53

So what he did is he looked at the entire configuration,

13:19:29.241 VM76169:53

saw where the future was going to be, and went to that place in the.

13:19:32.240 VM76169:53

So you can make a game to invent the future out of this.

13:19:38.239 VM76169:53

And so you start off with a cosmic goodness intuition.

13:19:41.241 VM76169:53

Like for me that tablet one was good.

13:19:47.240 VM76169:53

You identify a favorable exponential, like Moore's Law.

13:19:50.240 VM76169:53

You take the cosmic intuition out 30 years,

13:19:53.241 VM76169:53

and you ask, can we say, wouldn't it be ridiculous if we didn't have this.

13:19:59.240 VM76169:53

And say 30 year out, or 30 years away, well of course, we'll have one.

13:20:02.241 VM76169:53

That's what that exponential means.

13:20:05.241 VM76169:53

And bring it back to the 10, 15 year point.

13:20:11.241 VM76169:53

And that point, you can just pay money because that's also what Moore's law and

13:20:14.241 VM76169:53

13:20:17.241 VM76169:53

Is, if you pay a lot of money now,

13:20:20.241 VM76169:53

you can make the commodity computer of 10, 15 years in the future.

13:20:26.241 VM76169:53

It was about 50 times faster than what you got out of the time sharing terminal.

13:20:32.241 VM76169:53

And make a bunch of them, And you intertwine it, so, run the software.

13:20:38.240 VM76169:53

And then you can do two kinds of computing in the future.

13:20:41.241 VM76169:53

One kind of computing is zillions of experiments to get a user interface

13:20:47.241 VM76169:53

that would be universal for.

13:20:50.240 VM76169:53

Right now, 5 billion people, and deal with

13:20:53.241 VM76169:53

millions of people who were doing applications you've never seen before.

13:20:59.241 VM76169:53

the thing on the right there is Microsoft Word as it was at Xerox Park in 1974.

13:21:05.241 VM76169:53

If you optimize the code,

13:21:08.241 VM76169:53

you can get what the applications are going to be ten years out.

13:21:11.241 VM76169:53

So those are the two things you can do by doing this super computer thing.

13:21:14.240 VM76169:53

And it cost money.

13:21:17.241 VM76169:53

In today's dollars those altas cost about 125K a piece,

13:21:20.241 VM76169:53

and we made two thousand of them.

13:21:23.241 VM76169:53

Got to be a funder who's serious.

13:21:29.241 VM76169:53

Xerox went bat **** when we did it.

13:21:32.241 VM76169:53

They really went bat **** when we wanted to cash them in.

13:21:35.240 VM76169:53

But I'll just leave you this since I'm over time now.

13:21:38.244 VM76169:53

I'll leave you this as one of the ways of escaping the present.

13:21:44.241 VM76169:53

Have a glimmer of an idea, take it so far out that you don't have to worry about how

13:21:50.240 VM76169:53

you're going to get there, and then you just bring it back.

13:21:53.241 VM76169:53

So instead of innovating out from the present,

13:21:56.241 VM76169:53

what you want to do is to invent the future from the future.

13:21:59.239 VM76169:53

You are living the future, and bring the future back.

13:22:02.240 VM76169:53

Thank you. >> [APPLAUSE]

Difference between revisions of "How to Invent the Future I - CS183F"

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 }}
+:23:41.218 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:0:13">We have Alan Kay with us this week, he's going to do both lectures.</subtitle>
+:23:44.217 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:0:16">Alan Kay has forgotten more about how to invent the future than progressives</subtitle>
+:23:50.217 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:0:22">>> That would make a very bad class, Sam,</subtitle>
+:23:53.218 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:0:25">[LAUGH] >> [LAUGH] I think Alan is the genuine</subtitle>
+:23:56.217 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:0:28">world expert on this.</subtitle>
+:23:59.217 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:0:31">Invented with others, the Xerox Alto, which we recently restored at</subtitle>
+:24:02.217 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:0:34">Y Combinator with a group of incredible computer scientists.</subtitle>
+:24:08.217 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:0:40">And I think it's the person who has been most thoughtful, probably with anyone I've</subtitle>
+:24:11.218 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:0:43">ver met, about how you build organizations to do real innovations.</subtitle>
+:24:17.218 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:0:49">So thank you very much for coming, I am super excited to hear this.</subtitle>
+:24:20.217 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:0:52">So, I'm thoughtful about it because I got to watch masters do it.</subtitle>
+:24:26.217 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:0:58">I'm basically a research scientist, but</subtitle>
+:24:29.219 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:1:1">I was interested in the process done by far better managers than me,</subtitle>
+:24:32.218 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:1:4">who could deal with larger sets of ideas.</subtitle>
+:24:35.219 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:1:7"></subtitle>
+:24:38.217 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:1:10">And I'll try and give you a gist here.</subtitle>
+:24:41.218 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:1:13">Basically, I think,</subtitle>
+:24:44.217 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:1:16">people are here because they want to do startups and make money.</subtitle>
+:24:47.217 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:1:19">I just want to point out that if you want to make money,</subtitle>
+:24:50.218 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:1:22">don't bother with a startup.</subtitle>
+:24:53.219 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:1:25">Create an industry, because then you get trillions instead of billions.</subtitle>
+:24:59.219 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:1:31">So it's about a factor of a thousand between doing invention over innovation.</subtitle>
+:25:05.219 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:1:37">In other words, not going incrementally from the present but</subtitle>
+:25:08.217 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:1:40">carving out a whole new set of ideas that creates an entirely new context.</subtitle>
+:25:14.217 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:1:46">And we'll see some of the ways to go about it and</subtitle>
+:25:17.221 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:1:49">we'll also see some of the barriers.</subtitle>
+:25:20.226 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:1:52">And see if this, no.</subtitle>
+:25:23.231 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:1:55">This got a bad user interface,</subtitle>
+:25:26.233 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:1:58">because it has the back button near to the front button.</subtitle>
+:25:29.238 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:2:1">See if that works, so.</subtitle>
+:25:32.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:2:4">A lot of what these two days are about are talking</subtitle>
+:25:35.242 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:2:7"></subtitle>
+:25:38.243 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:2:10">about the place that most people naturally live, which is the present.</subtitle>
+:25:44.245 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:2:16">But the problem with the present, it is so glittery and distracting, there's so</subtitle>
+:25:47.248 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:2:19">That it's hard to think about anything except the present.</subtitle>
+:25:50.247 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:2:22">And if you're thinking about the present,</subtitle>
+:25:53.249 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:2:25">your ideas are going to be derived from the present.</subtitle>
+:25:56.248 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:2:28">And therefore, you wind up doing innovation,</subtitle>
+:25:59.250 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:2:31">not that you can't make money that way, but.</subtitle>
+:26:02.249 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:2:34">Today, I'm going to do the opposite of my usual order,</subtitle>
+:26:08.250 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:2:40">I usually like to build a lot of context first.</subtitle>
+:26:11.250 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:2:43">But I thought in the spirit of the Harvard Business School and the equivalent at</subtitle>
+:26:17.252 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:2:49">Stanford, I'd start off with things like results and process and methods first.</subtitle>
+:26:20.251 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:2:52">So you have a feeling that I'm actually [COUGH] saying something that you might</subtitle>
+:26:26.251 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:2:58">But the important talk is really on Thursday,</subtitle>
+:26:29.253 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:3:1">I'm still struggling with making it the right size.</subtitle>
+:26:32.251 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:3:4"></subtitle>
+:26:35.253 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:3:7">So today we're going to do that, and I urge you to copy my email address.</subtitle>
+:26:38.252 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:3:10">A lot of you emails, we're not going to have time</subtitle>
+:26:44.253 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:3:16">to have the discussion we should have here.</subtitle>
+:26:47.253 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:3:19">I welcome any questions and by the way, while I'm talking,</subtitle>
+:26:56.251 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:3:28">Okay and here's why school pisses me off.</subtitle>
+:27:02.251 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:3:34">A great man in our field, Marvin Minsky observed that this is the best place ever</subtitle>
+:27:08.251 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:3:40">to keep you from ever thinking about anything for long enough.</subtitle>
+:27:14.252 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:3:46">So you don't want to try and learn in a classroom, it's terrible.</subtitle>
+:27:17.253 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:3:49">In fact, I don't like to do classroom process,</subtitle>
+:27:20.253 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:3:52">partly because of the time constraints.</subtitle>
+:27:23.252 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:3:55">But also because it's oral,</subtitle>
+:27:26.252 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:3:58">we might as well be sitting around a campfire, a hundred thousand years ago.</subtitle>
+:27:29.253 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:4:1">And almost everything that's happened that's important in the last</subtitle>
+:27:32.252 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:4:4"></subtitle>
+:27:35.253 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:4:7">several thousand of years, has been basically, literary informed.</subtitle>
+:27:38.252 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:4:10">Okay, so one of my favorite Picasso sayings,</subtitle>
+:27:44.252 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:4:16">and he meant a lot of different things by this.</subtitle>
+:27:47.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:4:19">Part of it is the best you can ever do with any kind of representation is make</subtitle>
+:27:53.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:4:25">a kind of a map, even when you're trying to make a map of a map.</subtitle>
+:27:59.253 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:4:31">You're making a lie compared to the thing you're trying to represent.</subtitle>
+:28:02.252 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:4:34">But if you do it right,</subtitle>
+:28:05.253 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:4:37">people can gain some intuition about what the map is about.</subtitle>
+:28:08.252 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:4:40">That's what science is all about.</subtitle>
+:28:11.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:4:43">This talk in 50 minutes has to be a lie, it really is.</subtitle>
+:28:17.253 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:4:49">I'm leaving out a lot of important things.</subtitle>
+:28:23.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:4:55">But I think the shadow of the talk or whatever is projected by the talk is</subtitle>
+:28:26.253 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:4:58">pretty close to the way things actually are for doing this very different process.</subtitle>
+:28:29.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:5:1"></subtitle>
+:28:32.252 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:5:4">And I think Picasso didn't say, but he knew and</subtitle>
+:28:35.252 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:5:7"></subtitle>
+:28:38.252 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:5:10">he meant, is art is also the lie that tells the truth that wakes you up.</subtitle>
+:28:44.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:5:16">So if something wakes you up in the next two days, I will have done my job.</subtitle>
+:28:50.253 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:5:22">And then, the two days are really about another Picasso quote which is,</subtitle>
+:28:53.253 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:5:25">learn the rules like a pro so you can break them like an artist.</subtitle>
+:28:59.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:5:31">And not doing this is probably the greatest sin of Silicon Valley</subtitle>
+:29:02.252 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:5:34">since the 80s.</subtitle>
+:29:05.253 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:5:37">Almost never, nobody has bothered becoming a pro particularly in software and</subtitle>
+:29:11.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:5:43">user interface design.</subtitle>
+:29:14.253 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:5:46">So when they break the rules,</subtitle>
+:29:17.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:5:49">they're breaking them like a dumb child does by throwing rocks through windows.</subtitle>
+:29:20.253 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:5:52">And it's probably the most sickening thing to see about the field.</subtitle>
+:29:26.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:5:58">So another way of thinking about the mantra is,</subtitle>
+:29:29.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:6:1">you have to learn everything and then find a way of forgetting it.</subtitle>
+:29:32.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:6:4">So you can have your own ideas, but</subtitle>
+:29:35.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:6:7">what you forget is everything except the perfume.</subtitle>
+:29:41.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:6:13">So when you have an idea then your nose will pick up the right scent.</subtitle>
+:29:44.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:6:16">And you'll be able to make use of all of the stuff that you've learned after you've</subtitle>
+:29:53.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:6:25">I was specifically asked to talk about Xerox PARC</subtitle>
+:29:56.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:6:28">because that was an example of making trillions instead of billions.</subtitle>
+:30:02.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:6:34">And, so I thought what I'll do here is just show</subtitle>
+:30:08.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:6:40">you a couple of results, from Xerox PARC.</subtitle>
+:30:11.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:6:43">And I'll then try to give you some of what it took to get those results.</subtitle>
+:30:17.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:6:49">So, Xerox PARC is known for this machine that happened, I gave one to Sam.</subtitle>
+:30:23.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:6:55">He got it working with the help of some really great people.</subtitle>
+:30:29.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:7:1">So this machine happened in 1973 which is 11 years before the Mac, and</subtitle>
+:30:32.253 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:7:4">its screen was more than twice the size of the Mac.</subtitle>
+:30:35.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:7:7">It was more like a Mac of 1988 or 1989.</subtitle>
+:30:41.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:7:13">So it was about maybe 15 or 16 years ahead of the commercial development.</subtitle>
+:30:44.253 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:7:16">And the commercial development,</subtitle>
+:30:47.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:7:19">actually, was based on the stuff that was done on this machine.</subtitle>
+:30:53.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:7:25">So this is an example of the best way to predict the future is to invent it.</subtitle>
+:30:56.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:7:28">There's nothing like this before.</subtitle>
+:30:59.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:7:31">Once we did it, people could see, yeah,</subtitle>
+:31:02.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:7:34">there could be something like this because here it is.</subtitle>
+:31:05.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:7:37">In fact, we made 2000 of these, so there's a lot to look at.</subtitle>
+:31:08.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:7:40">They have bit map screens, they had pointing device.</subtitle>
+:31:11.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:7:43">The famous GUI, which you're still using today.</subtitle>
+:31:17.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:7:49">WYSIWYG means what you see is what you get.</subtitle>
+:31:20.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:7:52">Desktop publishing and the whole media gig.</subtitle>
+:31:26.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:7:58">What does that say?</subtitle>
+:31:29.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:8:1">That's not helping me, anybody read that?</subtitle>
+:31:32.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:8:4">>> Symmetrical reading and writing.</subtitle>
+:31:35.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:8:7">>> Yeah, symmetrical reading and writing.</subtitle>
+:31:38.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:8:10">Meaning what you almost never get on the web, but that you did get in</subtitle>
+:31:41.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:8:13">many of the apps of the 1980s, which is when you get a document,</subtitle>
+:31:47.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:8:19">the thing that you read the document with also allows you to edit the document.</subtitle>
+:31:56.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:8:28">So if you think about the web, it's actually much more made for</subtitle>
+:31:59.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:8:31">consumption than it is made for authoring, they're completely decoupled.</subtitle>
+:32:02.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:8:34">And most of the authoring facilities are typing in tiny little windows, and</subtitle>
+:32:05.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:8:37">then pushing a button to see what you did.</subtitle>
+:32:14.254 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:8:46">we just called it object oriented programming back then.</subtitle>
+:32:17.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:8:49">I made up that term.</subtitle>
+:32:20.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:8:52">But what's called object oriented programming today is</subtitle>
+:32:23.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:8:55">And I don't think I'll have time to really talk about the profound difference.</subtitle>
+:32:29.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:9:1">So if I have to say that what we did at PARC became popular, and</subtitle>
+:32:32.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:9:4"></subtitle>
+:32:38.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:9:10">Comparison is you can go out and buy a set of designer jeans with the label Harvard</subtitle>
+:32:44.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:9:16">on them, and for all I know with Stanford on them.</subtitle>
+:32:50.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:9:22">Laser printer, main difference between this and</subtitle>
+:32:53.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:9:25">what you have today is the first one was a page a second.</subtitle>
+:32:59.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:9:31">So most people have never printed with a page a second printer.</subtitle>
+:33:08.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:9:40">Peer-peer and client server, and 50% of the Internet.</subtitle>
+:33:14.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:9:46">PARC did an Internet before there was the Internet.</subtitle>
+:33:17.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:9:49">And we're part of that community, so we participated in the official Internet.</subtitle>
+:33:23.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:9:55">So we think of that as eight and a half inventions.</subtitle>
+:33:26.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:9:58">How long did it take?</subtitle>
+:33:29.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:10:1">Think about that.</subtitle>
+:33:32.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:10:4">Two dozen people did all of these things in about five years.</subtitle>
+:33:35.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:10:7"></subtitle>
+:33:38.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:10:10">Cost about 10 million to 12 million bucks a year in today's money.</subtitle>
+:33:44.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:10:16">Return is about 35 trillion, this is an old number,</subtitle>
+:33:47.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:10:19">it's probably more like 40 now.</subtitle>
+:33:50.257 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:10:22">So that's pretty good return on investment if you think about it.</subtitle>
+:33:53.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:10:25">If you like to do little spreadsheets and stuff.</subtitle>
+:33:56.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:10:28">15% is good, right Sam?</subtitle>
+:33:59.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:10:31">Yeah, so, and it was an industry rather than an increment.</subtitle>
+:34:05.255 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:10:37">People say, well, but Xerox didn't benefit from this.</subtitle>
+:34:11.257 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:10:43">They didn't make any money for it, that's complete ****.</subtitle>
+:34:14.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:10:46">It's made up by companies that don't want to invest in research.</subtitle>
+:34:17.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:10:49">Xerox made about a factor of 250 over their entire</subtitle>
+:34:23.257 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:10:55">investment in PARC, so that's 25,000% return right there.</subtitle>
+:34:26.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:10:58">Xerox's bug was they didn't understand the rest of this stuff, but they</subtitle>
+:34:29.257 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:11:1">certainly understood what a laser printer was, and they made billions from it.</subtitle>
+:34:32.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:11:4"></subtitle>
+:34:35.257 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:11:7">And in fact, if you look at it, it was better for</subtitle>
+:34:38.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:11:10">the world that they stonewalled us,</subtitle>
+:34:41.257 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:11:13">because no single company can handle an entire industry.</subtitle>
+:34:50.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:11:22">So this is made it possible: the Japanese had to do printers slightly,</subtitle>
+:34:53.257 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:11:25">And this, kind of heaven on Earth, lasted for about 12 years,</subtitle>
+:35:02.257 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:11:34">Xerox finally fired the guy who made it all happen.</subtitle>
+:35:08.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:11:40">You're thinking, he would have been rewarded,</subtitle>
+:35:14.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:11:46">right, because he made all this stuff happen, but in fact, they hated him.</subtitle>
+:35:17.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:11:49">And they hated him for</subtitle>
+:35:20.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:11:52">the very reason that most companies hate people who are doing something different,</subtitle>
+:35:23.257 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:11:55">because it makes middle management and upper management extremely uncomfortable.</subtitle>
+:35:29.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:12:1">What they want to do is make a few millions in a comfortable way.</subtitle>
+:35:35.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:12:7">And so this leads to an enormous problem that where</subtitle>
+:35:38.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:12:10">the real job of upper management in the 20 and 21st century is to learn things,</subtitle>
+:35:47.257 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:12:19">because change is the constant thing that's going on.</subtitle>
+:35:50.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:12:22">What they tried to do is to maximize whatever they had when they got</subtitle>
+:35:56.257 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:12:28">If you think about it, if large companies were actually rational,</subtitle>
+:36:02.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:12:34">There'd be no startups, because large companies have vastly more resources for</subtitle>
+:36:08.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:12:40">doing new things than any venture capitalist, right Sam?</subtitle>
+:36:14.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:12:46">They've got gazillions of money, but because they refuse to get into</subtitle>
+:36:17.257 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:12:49">new businesses and refuse to change their old businesses, you guys have a chance.</subtitle>
+:36:26.257 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:12:58">So, just pray that they don't ever wake up.</subtitle>
+:36:32.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:13:4">Now, the interesting thing is if you look at that collection of inventions,</subtitle>
+:36:38.257 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:13:10">And what's interesting is if I were to enlarge this a bit, I would show that</subtitle>
+:36:44.259 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:13:16">here's hardly been anything interesting invented since this funding stopped.</subtitle>
+:36:50.257 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:13:22">So it's been a nuke, basically a nuclear winter of</subtitle>
+:36:56.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:13:28">people cashing in on these inventions, and extracting the wealth from them, but</subtitle>
+:37:02.257 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:13:34">hardly, any efforts of any interesting kind to go beyond them.</subtitle>
+:37:08.257 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:13:40">And last point here is the lack of curiosity.</subtitle>
+:37:11.259 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:13:43">I met Sam, because he wanted to know where'd all this stuff come from?</subtitle>
+:37:17.257 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:13:49">I've hardly ever been asked that question.</subtitle>
+:37:20.257 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:13:52">It's the most successful generation of wealth in computing history,</subtitle>
+:37:26.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:13:58">and almost nobody wants to know, Sam did.</subtitle>
+:37:29.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:14:1"></subtitle>
+:37:35.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:14:7">And the difficult thing about today and Thursday is the world that you grew up in,</subtitle>
+:37:41.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:14:13">because I don't see anybody, is anybody here older than 35?</subtitle>
+:37:44.257 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:14:16">Okay, yeah, I see a little more reflectivity back there.</subtitle>
+:37:47.259 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:14:19">>> [LAUGH] >> Yeah, so</subtitle>
+:37:53.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:14:25">almost everybody in the room grew up in a world that was unlike the world I'm</subtitle>
+:37:56.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:14:28">going to just tell you about now.</subtitle>
+:37:59.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:14:31">So it's just many, many things were qualitatively different in ways that</subtitle>
+:38:02.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:14:34">are sometimes difficult to explain.</subtitle>
+:38:08.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:14:40">This is why lectures suck.</subtitle>
+:38:11.259 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:14:43">This is a 500 page book done very carefully</subtitle>
+:38:17.259 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:14:49">about the whole story of ARPA and Xerox PARC.</subtitle>
+:38:20.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:14:52">Anybody who's really interested, read this book.</subtitle>
+:38:23.259 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:14:55">And this is a tribute I wrote to this whole research</subtitle>
+:38:29.259 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:15:1">community about I don't know 14, 15 years ago.</subtitle>
+:38:32.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:15:4"></subtitle>
+:38:35.259 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:15:7">And I'll hand it out at the end of the class, and</subtitle>
+:38:38.259 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:15:10">the main thing that is interesting about it perhaps is the bibliography,</subtitle>
+:38:44.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:15:16">which has a lot of references on more detailed things you can read</subtitle>
+:38:47.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:15:19">about how this particular community operated, right?</subtitle>
+:38:53.259 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:15:25">And the important thing about Xerox PARC, which is not emphasized enough,</subtitle>
+:38:56.260 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:15:28">is that PARC was just another one of the ARPA research projects.</subtitle>
+:39:02.260 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:15:34">So there's eight years of research before PARC happened.</subtitle>
+:39:11.260 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:15:43">Nobody wanted to try to do this stuff inside of a company.</subtitle>
+:39:17.259 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:15:49">everything else are really antithetical to long range thinking.</subtitle>
+:39:23.259 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:15:55">So this stuff was all funded by Cold War funds in the public domain.</subtitle>
+:39:29.334 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:16:1"></subtitle>
+:39:32.258 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:16:4">So none of the IP was kept secret, but it was done in a better rhythm.</subtitle>
+:39:35.260 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:16:7">So to get the 35 trillion, it actually required not five years,</subtitle>
+:39:41.260 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:16:13">We were lucky researchers who got our PhDs in this process and</subtitle>
+:39:47.260 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:16:19">we're the right age to go to park and finish it off.</subtitle>
+:39:56.259 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:16:28">Right and as we'll see I'm not going to dwell on it much more but</subtitle>
+:39:59.260 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:16:31">he circa of this way of doing things goes back,</subtitle>
+:40:05.259 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:16:37">especially to the radar effort at MIT and</subtitle>
+:40:08.262 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:16:40">the air defense effort and then upper and the park.</subtitle>
+:40:11.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:16:43">So there is a long continuity here of kind of how do you,</subtitle>
+:40:17.274 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:16:49">work on things that are, That are doable but where you have to</subtitle>
+:40:26.259 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:16:58">invent several generations of technology to get to the thing that's doable.</subtitle>
+:40:29.259 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:17:1"></subtitle>
+:40:32.259 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:17:4">So most of these things are not doable with the technology that's lying around.</subtitle>
+:40:35.259 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:17:7">That is the problem with these hard problems.</subtitle>
+:40:41.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:17:13">Okay, so the general world, the normal world.</subtitle>
+:40:44.259 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:17:16">The present, for most of this period,</subtitle>
+:40:47.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:17:19">was either punch card accounting machines, or their replacement.</subtitle>
+:40:53.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:17:25">After IBM said famously they'll no, there's no room for more than five or</subtitle>
+:40:56.259 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:17:28">six computers in the entire world,</subtitle>
+:40:59.259 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:17:31">they wound up doing the first mass produced computer, the 1401.</subtitle>
+:41:08.259 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:17:40">To replace their punch card machines before other computer companies did.</subtitle>
+:41:14.260 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:17:46">So they did a sort of Trump like reversal, on their belief and</subtitle>
+:41:17.260 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:17:49">the bound up owning the 60s and much of the 70s.</subtitle>
+:41:23.260 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:17:55">And most important thing, this is a dumb sentence because,</subtitle>
+:41:29.260 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:18:1">you don't know what these machines were like.</subtitle>
+:41:32.260 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:18:4"></subtitle>
+:41:35.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:18:7">So I realized after I put it in there that, why did I even put this in, right?</subtitle>
+:41:41.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:18:13">But the way I look at what's going on at any given time,</subtitle>
+:41:47.262 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:18:19">whether it's today, 30 or 40 years ago.</subtitle>
+:41:50.260 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:18:22">Is whatever's going on right now is just crap, by definition.</subtitle>
+:41:56.260 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:18:28">If we know about it, except in the 1/10 of 1% or</subtitle>
+:42:02.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:18:34">1000 of 1%, it's gotten mundane.</subtitle>
+:42:08.260 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:18:40">And part of it is just because of the bell curve of normality in humans.</subtitle>
+:42:17.262 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:18:49">Whatever it is, it gets converted to something like normal.</subtitle>
+:42:20.260 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:18:52">No matter how exciting it is.</subtitle>
+:42:23.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:18:55">And so when things are widely successful they tend to bring up the mean</subtitle>
+:42:29.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:19:1">of the bell curve a little bit, for everybody, raises all boats.</subtitle>
+:42:32.260 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:19:4"></subtitle>
+:42:35.262 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:19:7">But in fact, there's also this regression to the mean on almost all of these things.</subtitle>
+:42:38.260 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:19:10">So living in the present, man,</subtitle>
+:42:41.262 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:19:13">you're just out of it if you're trying to think about things from what we have now.</subtitle>
+:42:47.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:19:19">There's the bomb project and the radar project at MIT,</subtitle>
+:42:53.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:19:25">that had roughly the same process, roughly the same difficulty.</subtitle>
+:42:59.262 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:19:31">You have to realize the US was in World War II for only about two and</subtitle>
+:43:05.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:19:37">Pearl Harbour was December of 1941 and</subtitle>
+:43:08.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:19:40">so we had 42, 43, 44, three and a half years.</subtitle>
+:43:11.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:19:43">And a lot of things got done the Most interesting thing is for</subtitle>
+:43:20.262 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:19:52">the first time in history, really, a lot of really good scientists and</subtitle>
+:43:23.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:19:55">a lot of really good engineers started working together and cloning each other.</subtitle>
+:43:29.262 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:20:1">So seven Nobel Prizes came out of the building 20.</subtitle>
+:43:32.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:20:4">Because they were physicists who put on their engineering hats.</subtitle>
+:43:35.262 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:20:7"></subtitle>
+:43:38.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:20:10">To make 185 different kinds of radar systems and</subtitle>
+:43:41.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:20:13">install them in every size of building and plane and boat.</subtitle>
+:43:47.262 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:20:19">And World War II was basically a war of supply.</subtitle>
+:43:50.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:20:22">And it was the ability to a Stave</subtitle>
+:43:56.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:20:28">off the German submarines that had actually won the war for us.</subtitle>
+:43:59.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:20:31">Most people don't think of it that way.</subtitle>
+:44:02.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:20:34">But that's what happened.</subtitle>
+:44:05.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:20:37">So in the circa I'm talking about I came out of this group and</subtitle>
+:44:08.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:20:40">there's a couple of good books about how these people went about doing things.</subtitle>
+:44:14.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:20:46">Maybe the number one thing is what I have on right hand side is basically he said,</subtitle>
+:44:20.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:20:52">It doesn't matter who you are, how smart you are,</subtitle>
+:44:23.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:20:55">how smart you think you are, there's only one thing that counts here,</subtitle>
+:44:26.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:20:58">is making progress and we make progress through synergy and</subtitle>
+:44:29.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:21:1"></subtitle>
+:44:32.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:21:4">they learned how to do this and they passed it on generation, after generation.</subtitle>
+:44:35.262 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:21:7">Well the next round of this, after World War II, was the cold war.</subtitle>
+:44:41.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:21:13">And the air defense system that was done in the 50s.</subtitle>
+:44:44.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:21:16">And again at MIT, the first displays that you could interact with.</subtitle>
+:44:53.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:21:25">That is essentially a stylus in the guy's hand, it was called a light gun.</subtitle>
+:44:56.262 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:21:28">So he's pointing at something on the screen and squeezing the trigger.</subtitle>
+:45:02.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:21:34">Like you would put a Silas down and push it down and</subtitle>
+:45:05.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:21:37">the light gun can tell, computer can tell what the light gun is working at.</subtitle>
+:45:11.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:21:43">So you can do all of the stuff, that you're used to today.</subtitle>
+:45:14.262 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:21:46">To give you an idea of what these guys did,</subtitle>
+:45:17.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:21:49">I can't really see what this is right?</subtitle>
+:45:23.264 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:21:55">It's just like it's obviously four floors of a building.</subtitle>
+:45:29.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:22:1">And if you notice the second floor, it says computer A and computer B.</subtitle>
+:45:32.262 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:22:4">Each one of those computers had 50,000 vacuum tubes.</subtitle>
+:45:35.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:22:7"></subtitle>
+:45:38.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:22:10">Both running the same programs at the same time and many</subtitle>
+:45:41.264 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:22:13">other interesting things I don't have time to talk about but, I'll just say that when</subtitle>
+:45:47.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:22:19">one of these computers started crashing it took it three or four days to crash.</subtitle>
+:45:50.262 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:22:22">And the reason is, it was running diagnostics on itself.</subtitle>
+:45:53.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:22:25">And every time an instruction failed, it would patch</subtitle>
+:45:59.264 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:22:31">in a simulated instruction based on what instructions were still working.</subtitle>
+:46:02.262 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:22:34">So what would happen is the machine would just get slower and</subtitle>
+:46:05.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:22:37"> more software-like.</subtitle>
+:46:08.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:22:40">More like a Turing machine and usually they could fix it before</subtitle>
+:46:11.262 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:22:43">it came all the way down, meanwhile the other one was still working.</subtitle>
+:46:14.262 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:22:46">But, even though I shouldn't be digressing,</subtitle>
+:46:17.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:22:49">there's a fun thing here, there were 32 of these concrete bunkers made.</subtitle>
+:46:23.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:22:55">So the two interesting things, what happened to this stuff, anybody know?</subtitle>
+:46:29.264 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:23:1">Does this look like anything you've ever seen before?</subtitle>
+:46:35.264 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:23:7">>> No, that's, but- >> Airline meter, sorry.</subtitle>
+:46:38.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:23:10">>> Yeah, yeah, this actually was the invention of our,</subtitle>
+:46:44.264 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:23:16">air traffic control system.</subtitle>
+:46:47.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:23:19">That's what it was designed to do, except that it was designed to control</subtitle>
+:46:50.264 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:23:22">traffic of both American and Russian bombers and</subtitle>
+:46:56.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:23:28">in fact, if many of the displays before they replace them with flat screen.</subtitle>
+:47:02.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:23:34">Displays is basically the same big round.</subtitle>
+:47:05.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:23:37">So this whole system last until 1982.</subtitle>
+:47:11.264 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:23:43">When the last one was finally decommissioned and 50,000 vacuum tubes.</subtitle>
+:47:17.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:23:49">They're like incandescent light bulbs.</subtitle>
+:47:20.264 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:23:52">They blow out, so they're always blowing out.</subtitle>
+:47:23.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:23:55">So, of course, there are redundant ones there.</subtitle>
+:47:26.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:23:58">Where did we get the vacuum tubes from?</subtitle>
+:47:32.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:24:4">Think about it, all the way through the 70s.</subtitle>
+:47:35.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:24:7">>> [INAUDIBLE] >> [INAUDIBLE]</subtitle>
+:47:38.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:24:10">no transistors in these machines.</subtitle>
+:47:41.264 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:24:13">No transistors, these are- >> Russia.</subtitle>
+:47:47.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:24:19">I heard it before.</subtitle>
+:47:50.264 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:24:22">>> Yeah.</subtitle>
+:47:53.264 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:24:25">>> [LAUGH] >> That's good, and you remember it.</subtitle>
+:47:56.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:24:28">>> For the last 12 or 18 years of this defense system,</subtitle>
+:48:02.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:24:34">which was never used against the Russians ever, because they never tried to bomb us.</subtitle>
+:48:05.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:24:37">And was actually obsolete very soon because of ICBMs, it couldn't track them.</subtitle>
+:48:11.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:24:43">There's a whole other system for doing that, yeah.</subtitle>
+:48:14.263 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:24:46">But we kept it going and there are reasons why it was kept going.</subtitle>
+:48:20.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:24:52">We bought while we're still contending in the Russia for</subtitle>
+:48:23.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:24:55">the cold war, we buying vacuum tubes from them too.</subtitle>
+:48:26.264 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:24:58">By the way, people still keep buying vacuum tubes from the Russians for</subtitle>
+:48:29.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:25:1"></subtitle>
+:48:32.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:25:4">Getting old 50s guitar amp sounds.</subtitle>
+:48:35.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:25:7">Those overdriven sounds.</subtitle>
+:48:38.264 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:25:10">And this guy, who was one of the inventors of artificial intelligence, and</subtitle>
+:48:44.264 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:25:16">the inventor of the programming language LISP, John McCarthy, looked at one</subtitle>
+:48:47.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:25:19">of these in the 50s and said, Everybody is going to have one in their home someday.</subtitle>
+:48:53.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:25:25">Because he didn't give a **** about</subtitle>
+:48:59.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:25:31">Because what he thought was, yeah, this is like a electric power generating station.</subtitle>
+:49:08.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:25:40">Nobody ever sees them but they're out there.</subtitle>
+:49:11.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:25:43">We have wires going to the home for,</subtitle>
+:49:14.264 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:25:46">it's like where we get our water from, it's where we get our gas from.</subtitle>
+:49:17.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:25:49">The utilities, so he thought there would be an information utility, and</subtitle>
+:49:23.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:25:55">it will actually be a human right, like the telephone, to have</subtitle>
+:49:29.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:26:1">one of these things In your home that is connected to all the worlds information.</subtitle>
+:49:32.264 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:26:4"></subtitle>
+:49:35.264 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:26:7">So that was one of the earliest and most influential ideas.</subtitle>
+:49:41.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:26:13">1962, I'm going to show you a system done on one of these super computers.</subtitle>
+:49:47.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:26:19">This is done on the test computer at Lincoln Labs for this whole SAGE system so</subtitle>
+:49:53.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:26:25">this computer was close to the size of this entire building.</subtitle>
+:49:59.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:26:31">With one guy on it, yeah at 3 o'clock in the morning.</subtitle>
+:50:02.264 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:26:34">So, take a look at this.</subtitle>
+:50:05.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:26:37">This is Ivan Sutherland.</subtitle>
+:50:11.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:26:43">So, it doesn't really even have a display.</subtitle>
+:50:14.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:26:46">It's actually simulating a computer display here.</subtitle>
+:50:20.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:26:52">So, what Ivan wants to do, is to draw a flange and so he says,</subtitle>
+:50:26.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:26:58">Now take these guys and make them all mutually perpendicular and</subtitle>
+:50:29.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:27:1"></subtitle>
+:50:32.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:27:4">wow, sketch pad just solved that problem.</subtitle>
+:50:35.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:27:7">So it's a dynamic problem solver in there.</subtitle>
+:50:38.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:27:10">First window then clipped.</subtitle>
+:50:41.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:27:13">Now it wants to put a hole in the flange.</subtitle>
+:50:44.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:27:16">So these are guidelines.</subtitle>
+:50:47.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:27:19">and the first thing he does is said, okay, I want to make this parallel.</subtitle>
+:50:50.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:27:22">And you see, sketch pad keeps them on the line there and lines them up.</subtitle>
+:50:56.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:27:28">And now, he's using them as guidelines to draw a dash lines.</subtitle>
+:51:08.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:27:40">You see here, he misses Whoop, okay.</subtitle>
+:51:14.269 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:27:46">They're still there.</subtitle>
+:51:17.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:27:49">The constraint was co-linearity there.</subtitle>
+:51:23.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:27:55">And he has a knob to continuously zoom.</subtitle>
+:51:26.286 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:27:58">So this is the first computer graphics ever.</subtitle>
+:51:32.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:28:4">And he wants some rivets to go along with that flange, and so again he,</subtitle>
+:51:35.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:28:7"></subtitle>
+:51:38.265 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:28:10">this is why this system is called a sketch pad because you just casually draw.</subtitle>
+:51:41.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:28:13">Just going to use that as the center for the ark here.</subtitle>
+:51:50.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:28:22">And again he's going to say, take these guys and</subtitle>
+:51:53.267 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:28:25">make them mutually perpendicular and here sketch pad solves that problem.</subtitle>
+:51:56.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:28:28">So you wind up with a symmetric object.</subtitle>
+:51:59.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:28:31">And he can change things and</subtitle>
+:52:05.267 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:28:37">he'll get another solution.</subtitle>
+:52:11.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:28:43">He could have constrained the side links to be ratios of each other.</subtitle>
+:52:20.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:28:52">And the kind of problem solving this system could do,</subtitle>
+:52:23.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:28:55">well included non linear problems.</subtitle>
+:52:29.267 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:29:1">And what's cool about this, that is a master rivet,</subtitle>
+:52:32.267 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:29:4">what we'd call a class in object oriented programming.</subtitle>
+:52:38.267 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:29:10">So this is not that rivet, but an instance of that master rivet.</subtitle>
+:52:47.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:29:19">>> Well it's putting up every dot individually,</subtitle>
+:52:50.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:29:22">at about half the power of this super computer is being used to just do that.</subtitle>
+:52:56.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:29:28">So here another instance, another rivet.</subtitle>
+:52:59.267 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:29:31">Here is another one, here's another one.</subtitle>
+:53:05.267 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:29:37">And he says whoops I didn't want to have those crossbars there, so</subtitle>
+:53:08.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:29:40">I'll go back to the master rivet and make the crossbars invisible.</subtitle>
+:53:11.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:29:43">They're still there but invisible, and we see the instances.</subtitle>
+:53:17.267 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:29:49">Maybe nicer than you've seen it.</subtitle>
+:53:23.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:29:55">Get rid of those guys and now,</subtitle>
+:53:26.268 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:29:58">that construction that he made, he's made it into a master.</subtitle>
+:53:29.268 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:30:1"></subtitle>
+:53:32.268 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:30:4">So he can make instances of it.</subtitle>
+:53:35.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:30:7">Okay, get the idea?</subtitle>
+:53:38.266 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:30:10">>> I had a question.</subtitle>
+:53:41.268 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:30:13">>> Yes. >> [INAUDIBLE] Sort of regressed</subtitle>
+:53:44.268 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:30:16">from here >> Well anybody in this class ever seen</subtitle>
+:53:53.268 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:30:25">Okay, so that's part of the answer.</subtitle>
+:53:59.268 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:30:31">Yeah we'll go along, it's sort of the larger question that we have.</subtitle>
+:54:02.267 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:30:34">It's worthwhile bringing up the question He's rotating three of them.</subtitle>
+:54:11.268 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:30:43">So, this is the most shocking thing I;d ever seen when I went to graduate</subtitle>
+:54:14.268 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:30:46">This was, the system was only three years old at that time.</subtitle>
+:54:23.267 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:30:55">And I've been programming for five years and just for</subtitle>
+:54:26.268 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:30:58">conventional programming and seeing this, it blew my mind.</subtitle>
+:54:29.268 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:31:1">Because it was exactly different than everything I thought about computing.</subtitle>
+:54:32.268 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:31:4"></subtitle>
+:54:35.269 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:31:7">As soon as I saw I, I realized yeah, of course you can do that.</subtitle>
+:54:41.268 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:31:13">But I didn't think about that.</subtitle>
+:54:50.267 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:31:22">Okay so Sketchpad, interactive computer graphics in a way we recognize today.</subtitle>
+:54:56.269 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:31:28">For the first time, objects, masters and instances.</subtitle>
+:55:02.268 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:31:34">The programming was not done by the kind of programming today, but</subtitle>
+:55:05.269 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:31:37">by problem solving, which I think you can imagine is much nicer.</subtitle>
+:55:08.269 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:31:40">Like it will find the solution.</subtitle>
+:55:11.267 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:31:43">And it creates automatic dynamics simulations,</subtitle>
+:55:17.267 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:31:49">When you draw the bridge in, it knows how to simulate the bridge and</subtitle>
+:55:26.268 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:31:58">So I said to Ivan, Ivan you did all of this and what is this PhD thesis?</subtitle>
+:55:29.269 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:32:1"></subtitle>
+:55:32.264 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:32:4">Said, you did all this in one year by yourself, how could you possibly do it?</subtitle>
+:55:35.261 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:32:7">And he said, well, I didn't know it was hard.</subtitle>
+:55:38.256 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:32:10">>> [LAUGH] >> He just went after what the problem is.</subtitle>
+:55:44.252 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:32:16">because you can see there are things that are of absolute goodness still today.</subtitle>
+:55:47.249 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:32:19">It's not just relatively good for being done more than 50 years,</subtitle>
+:55:53.247 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:32:25">And his thesis is, every other page is an apology because it doesn't do more.</subtitle>
+:55:59.244 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:32:31">He wasn't working out what you could do, he was working on the problem.</subtitle>
+:56:05.243 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:32:37">Yeah, so sketch pad was a bombshell in</subtitle>
+:56:11.243 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:32:43">because right away, you were looking at the future.</subtitle>
+:56:17.242 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:32:49">You just had to believe that a building sized computer was going to</subtitle>
+:56:23.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:32:55">wind up on a laptop, or even something in a desk.</subtitle>
+:56:29.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:33:1">So the main player here back then was a guy by the name of Lick.</subtitle>
+:56:32.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:33:4"></subtitle>
+:56:35.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:33:7">Licklider, he got given some money in 1962 by ARPA before the day,</subtitle>
+:56:41.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:33:13">and when anybody asked him what are you going to do, this is what he would say.</subtitle>
+:56:47.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:33:19">Computers are destined to become interactive intellectual amplifiers for</subtitle>
+:56:53.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:33:25">everyone in the world, universally networked worldwide.</subtitle>
+:56:59.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:33:31">Simply gave out money.</subtitle>
+:57:05.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:33:37">but this is a perfect class I think to put bullet points in.</subtitle>
+:57:11.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:33:43">And I found 16, that will tell you just what you have to do.</subtitle>
+:57:20.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:33:52">So the first thing, was just picking an idea that's worth dedicating your life,</subtitle>
+:57:23.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:33:55">if necessary to.</subtitle>
+:57:29.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:34:1">So, this stuff was human destiny,</subtitle>
+:57:32.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:34:4">fixing big human problems, like we can't think very well.</subtitle>
+:57:35.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:34:7">We need to make things to help us to think,</subtitle>
+:57:38.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:34:10">we need to make things to help us cooperate.</subtitle>
+:57:41.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:34:13">So these were save the world kind of ideas and they were done when the Russians where</subtitle>
+:57:47.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:34:19">starting to test hydrogen bombs and things did not look so good.</subtitle>
+:57:56.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:34:28">the problem is that goals tend to be much more idiosyncratic to individual humans.</subtitle>
+:58:02.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:34:34">So research wants to be a vision.</subtitle>
+:58:05.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:34:37">So notice there aren't any goals in the ARPA dream.</subtitle>
+:58:08.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:34:40">And that allowed Licklider to fund 15 or 20 super</subtitle>
+:58:14.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:34:46">smart people who thought they had ways of approaching the dream.</subtitle>
+:58:17.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:34:49">And some of these people didn't [BLANK AUDIO] agree, and</subtitle>
+:59:05.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:34:55">some of them hated each other.</subtitle>
+:59:08.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:34:58">And Lick didn't give a ****, he just wanted smart people working on this dream.</subtitle>
+:59:14.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:35:4">So fund people, not projects.</subtitle>
+:59:17.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:35:7">ARPA never decided.</subtitle>
+:59:20.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:35:10">And we'll see a slight modification of this.</subtitle>
+:59:23.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:35:13">But basically, fund people, not projects.</subtitle>
+:59:32.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:35:22">So, if you know, MacArthur grants are for individuals.</subtitle>
+:59:35.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:35:25">But this funding was funding groups.</subtitle>
+:59:38.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:35:28">Like you fund in MacArthur, just five years, forget it.</subtitle>
+:59:44.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:35:34">Nobody at MacArthur asks, you don't get a second MacArthur grant.</subtitle>
+:59:47.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:35:37">Here, they would get another grant if they'd done something good in five years,</subtitle>
+:59:50.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:35:40">but basically the idea of MacArthur is throw away.</subtitle>
+:59:56.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:35:46">We've identified this person of extreme potential, let's just give him five years</subtitle>
+:59:59.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:35:49">of funding and we won't cry if they don't do anything.</subtitle>
+:00:02.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:35:52">It turns out most MacArthur people do something because the people that</subtitle>
+:00:08.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:35:58">tract attention are people who are not working for money.</subtitle>
+:00:14.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:36:4">they are people like artists are people who do their art because they must.</subtitle>
+:00:17.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:36:7"></subtitle>
+:00:23.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:36:13">Community not a project, have to fund problem finding,</subtitle>
+:00:32.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:36:22">Most of the time, when you are working on hard problems,</subtitle>
+:00:35.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:36:25">you don't know what the right problem is.</subtitle>
+:00:41.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:36:31">If you pick a problem too early you might be picking it out of the current context.</subtitle>
+:00:47.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:36:37">And therefore, you're going to be hampered unless you are incredibly lucky.</subtitle>
+:00:50.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:36:40">So ARPA put a lot of money into just people thinking around with stuff.</subtitle>
+:00:56.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:36:46">Milestones not deadlines.</subtitle>
+:01:02.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:36:52">Meaning, when you lose a stroke in golf, you cry.</subtitle>
+:01:08.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:36:58">When, you strike out in baseball, you better not cry, because you're going to do</subtitle>
+:01:11.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:37:1">it a lot, and this is what Licklider said to them.</subtitle>
+:01:14.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:37:4"></subtitle>
+:01:17.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:37:7">He said look, if you're batting 3.50 in baseball, you're really doing well.</subtitle>
+:01:23.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:37:13">And if you look at what we're funding if we bat 3.50,</subtitle>
+:01:26.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:37:16">That's what happened.</subtitle>
+:01:29.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:37:19">Nobody cares about all the stuff that didn't work.</subtitle>
+:01:32.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:37:22">And people said, well what about the 65% failure?</subtitle>
+:01:35.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:37:25">And they said, well it's not failure in baseball, it's overhead.</subtitle>
+:01:41.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:37:31">Hitting a ball is hard, when you're doing something really, really hard, the times</subtitle>
+:01:47.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:37:37">you don't do it well is just overhead for doing it the times you do well.</subtitle>
+:01:50.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:37:40">And this is probably the biggest distinction that business people do</subtitle>
+:01:53.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:37:43">not understand.</subtitle>
+:01:56.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:37:46">because what they want is actually teeny,</subtitle>
+:01:59.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:37:49">little uninteresting projects that are guaranteed for your success.</subtitle>
+:02:05.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:37:55">Sports is really hard, and most sports people are not succeeding all the time.</subtitle>
+:02:11.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:38:1"></subtitle>
+:02:14.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:38:4">What's the thing in baseball, it's called an error?</subtitle>
+:02:17.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:38:7">Like what?</subtitle>
+:02:20.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:38:10">>> [INAUDIBLE] >> No, just fielding.</subtitle>
+:02:23.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:38:13">>> Yeah, what's an error in baseball?</subtitle>
+:02:26.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:38:16">Not catching a fly ball.</subtitle>
+:02:29.242 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:38:19">How good are the average fielders?</subtitle>
+:02:32.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:38:22">They're 98.5% effective.</subtitle>
+:02:38.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:38:28">So, really good ones are like one percent error and so an error and</subtitle>
+:02:41.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:38:31">technical stuff is designed to build a computer system and failing to build it.</subtitle>
+:02:47.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:38:37">Like anybody should be, decide to build a software and failing to build it.</subtitle>
+:02:53.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:38:43">But you're in this other range when you're trying to do design.</subtitle>
+:02:59.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:38:49">So, here's a memo Lick wrote in 63,</subtitle>
+:03:05.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:38:55">shortly after he got this initial money from ARPA to members and</subtitle>
+:03:11.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:39:1">affiliates of the Intergalactic Computing Network.</subtitle>
+:03:17.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:39:7">He said, well engineers always give you the minimum, and I want a network that</subtitle>
+:03:23.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:39:13">spans the entire planet, so I'm asking for an intergalactic one.</subtitle>
+:03:26.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:39:16">And when they scale it down, we'll still get, so</subtitle>
+:03:29.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:39:19">that's where the internet came from, literally.</subtitle>
+:03:32.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:39:22">The original name of the Internet was the intergalactic computing,</subtitle>
+:03:35.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:39:25">nobody knew how to do it back then.</subtitle>
+:03:38.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:39:28">For instance, packet switching had not been invented in 63.</subtitle>
+:03:44.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:39:34">And here's a nice line in that memo, if we succeed in making an intergalactic</subtitle>
+:03:47.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:39:37">network, then our our main problem will be learning to communicate with aliens.</subtitle>
+:03:50.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:39:40">And he meant this in the biggest possible way, and</subtitle>
+:03:53.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:39:43">I don't have time to really explain it, it's really interesting.</subtitle>
+:03:56.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:39:46">People who are interested in this should write me an email.</subtitle>
+:04:02.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:39:52">He meant other software, other computers.</subtitle>
+:04:05.242 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:39:55">He meant what does it mean to communicate when you scale things up?</subtitle>
+:04:11.242 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:40:1">So this guy was a big thinker.</subtitle>
+:04:14.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:40:4">That's of course referring to Washington, DC.</subtitle>
+:04:17.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:40:7">But this is a general principle.</subtitle>
+:04:20.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:40:10">They asked him why, and he said, well, because there's too much noise.</subtitle>
+:04:23.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:40:13">There's just too much politics.</subtitle>
+:04:26.242 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:40:16">And nobody does research in Washington, DC.</subtitle>
+:04:32.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:40:22">So the last thing we want to do, as our profounders, is to try and</subtitle>
+:04:35.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:40:25">Our job is to get money out of the government and pass it along.</subtitle>
+:04:38.242 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:40:28">And so a solution to that would say, hey let's not be here for</subtitle>
+:04:44.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:40:34">And so every two years, so Lick set up the process to get his successor,</subtitle>
+:04:50.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:40:40">happened that Ivan Sutherland got drafted into the army at just the right time.</subtitle>
+:04:56.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:40:46">at age 26 Ivan ran this whole show and man was he good.</subtitle>
+:05:05.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:40:55">He was a second lieutenant sharing meetings with generals and</subtitle>
+:05:11.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:41:1">one of the most famous things recalled of that.</subtitle>
+:05:14.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:41:4">Some general was going on and on at some point Ivan said,</subtitle>
+:05:17.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:41:7">general you have just two minutes to make your point if you have one.</subtitle>
+:05:23.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:41:13">That's about the simplest way of describing Ivan.</subtitle>
+:05:26.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:41:16">Bob Taylor and Larry Roberts.</subtitle>
+:05:32.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:41:22">Taylor is special because he is also the guy who set up park.</subtitle>
+:05:38.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:41:28">Licklider was intuitively wonderful,</subtitle>
+:05:41.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:41:31">Taylor was a student of what was wonderful about Licklider.</subtitle>
+:05:44.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:41:34">And he could explain everything that Licklider could do and why it worked.</subtitle>
+:05:50.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:41:40">So here's a couple things, I'm not going to go about, but</subtitle>
+:05:56.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:41:46">basically the idea here is it isn't like lets look around and</subtitle>
+:05:59.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:41:49">see what is available and what we can do with it.</subtitle>
+:06:02.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:41:52">The idea was stick with the vision and</subtitle>
+:06:05.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:41:55">just make every frigging thing that's necessary.</subtitle>
+:06:11.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:42:1">If we have to make a new kind of integrated circuit, we'll do it.</subtitle>
+:06:14.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:42:4">All of these things were done.</subtitle>
+:06:17.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:42:7">So it's very much like these other cultures where nobody worried about</subtitle>
+:06:23.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:42:13">whether you had half centimeter radar in building 20 at MIT, they just did it.</subtitle>
+:06:29.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:42:19">And here's one that is really a bug today.</subtitle>
+:06:32.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:42:22">And if you don't have the chops, yeah you shouldn't make your tools,</subtitle>
+:06:35.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:42:25">you shouldn't make your own operating system.</subtitle>
+:06:38.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:42:28">You shouldn't make your own programming language because that's not what you're</subtitle>
+:06:41.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:42:31">If you do have the chops, and you better not do his unless you have the chops,</subtitle>
+:06:47.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:42:37">then you have to make your own hardware and software and</subtitle>
+:06:50.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:42:40">operating system in the programming languages.</subtitle>
+:06:53.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:42:43">Otherwise you're working in the past on some vendor's bad idea of what</subtitle>
+:06:59.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:42:49">So part of this deal, remember what Picasso said.</subtitle>
+:07:02.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:42:52">You have to get really much, much better than</subtitle>
+:07:05.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:42:55">what most people want to today, and here's another reversal.</subtitle>
+:07:11.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:43:1">Today people buy hardware and</subtitle>
+:07:14.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:43:4">put software on it basically to make the hardware look good.</subtitle>
+:07:17.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:43:7">The ARPA community in part did exactly the opposite.</subtitle>
+:07:23.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:43:13">Using super computers to simulate the thing.</subtitle>
+:07:29.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:43:19">then you'd design the computer that would optimize and</subtitle>
+:07:35.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:43:25">That is what Sketchpad was.</subtitle>
+:07:38.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:43:28">Nobody thought that the next graphic systems were going to be done on</subtitle>
+:07:47.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:43:37">Okay, and then make a bunch of them.</subtitle>
+:07:50.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:43:40">So almost every project in the ARPA project,</subtitle>
+:07:53.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:43:43">they actually made enough of them so they could be used as tools.</subtitle>
+:07:56.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:43:46">They weren't just demos.</subtitle>
+:07:59.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:43:49">And so part of this invention process had to require a kind of limited engineering.</subtitle>
+:08:05.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:43:55">instance, had a thing where whatever you did you had to make 100 of them.</subtitle>
+:08:08.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:43:58">Made an Ethernet, it had to run 100 machines.</subtitle>
+:08:11.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:44:1">If you made a time sharing system, it had run 100 users.</subtitle>
+:08:14.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:44:4">If you made a personal computer, you had to be able to build 100 of them.</subtitle>
+:08:20.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:44:10">Learn how to argue.</subtitle>
+:08:26.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:44:16">Argue for clarity, not to win.</subtitle>
+:08:29.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:44:19">People are always contending with each other, trying to be winners and losers,</subtitle>
+:08:35.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:44:25">and that's one of the problems with Washington,</subtitle>
+:08:41.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:44:31">Now what you have to do is understand these complicated things.</subtitle>
+:08:44.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:44:34">Here's a biggie, every researcher at Park was a second or</subtitle>
+:08:50.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:44:40">third generation PhD that ARPA had created.</subtitle>
+:08:53.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:44:43">Right, eight years.</subtitle>
+:08:56.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:44:46">It wasn't just the stuff in the past.</subtitle>
+:08:59.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:44:49">I'll show you a couple more of those, wow we're getting closed to, but</subtitle>
+:09:02.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:44:52">it was creating the next generation.</subtitle>
+:09:08.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:44:58">Baseball you have to develop talent going all the way the down to little league.</subtitle>
+:09:11.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:45:1"></subtitle>
+:09:14.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:45:4">And they did and the other thing is a little difficult to,</subtitle>
+:09:17.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:45:7"></subtitle>
+:09:20.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:45:10">some of you will understand this readily.</subtitle>
+:09:23.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:45:13">That the reward of doing this stuff wasn't the reward of making it happen</subtitle>
+:09:26.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:45:16">because a lot of times it didn't happen.</subtitle>
+:09:29.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:45:19">It was a reward of actually being funded to work on what the actual problems were.</subtitle>
+:09:38.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:45:28">I can't emphasize this too much.</subtitle>
+:09:41.246 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:45:31">Working on what the problems actually are rather than something that's going to get</subtitle>
+:09:47.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:45:37">a paper, something that's going to make you money, but taking big human problems.</subtitle>
+:09:53.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:45:43">Could be something like drinkable water.</subtitle>
+:09:56.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:45:46">For the 70% of the planet that doesn't have it.</subtitle>
+:09:59.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:45:49">If you pick one of those things that's a great one, worth putting your life into.</subtitle>
+:10:05.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:45:55">Okay, so background was partly tinkering.</subtitle>
+:10:14.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:46:4">A lot of people came from New York, down where the world trade center was.</subtitle>
+:10:17.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:46:7">Before the world trade center, there was about a mile across Manhattan Island that</subtitle>
+:10:23.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:46:13">was nothing but electronic surplus stores.</subtitle>
+:10:26.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:46:16">Mow a few lawns, put a dime into the subway and</subtitle>
+:10:29.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:46:19">you could go down there and buy almost anything to mess around with.</subtitle>
+:10:35.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:46:25">And that group got used to, everybody was broke.</subtitle>
+:10:41.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:46:31">There was a kit to build your own oscilloscope.</subtitle>
+:10:47.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:46:37">And if you wanted an oscilloscope and you were broke,</subtitle>
+:10:50.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:46:40">you could get one of these on time for $30 or $40 bucks and build it.</subtitle>
+:10:56.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:46:46">And I'm going to just</subtitle>
+:10:59.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:46:49">put, these are just washed out anyway so I'm just going to go past.</subtitle>
+:11:08.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:46:58">Okay, so Moore's Law, this was the original thing in Moore's paper.</subtitle>
+:11:11.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:47:1"></subtitle>
+:11:14.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:47:4">Doubling every year.</subtitle>
+:11:17.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:47:7">He picked MOS silicon which is too slow to make things out of, but</subtitle>
+:11:23.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:47:13">Here's doubling every two years, and what happened.</subtitle>
+:11:29.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:47:19">The prediction was 30 years and so what happened was, very in line</subtitle>
+:11:32.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:47:22">with doubling every two years to every 18 months, and there is physics behind this.</subtitle>
+:11:41.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:47:31">This wasn't just an engineering aspiration, and so</subtitle>
+:11:44.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:47:34">if you believe this you had something really worthwhile.</subtitle>
+:11:47.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:47:37">>> Set it up so I see it like that, that leaves a corner.</subtitle>
+:11:53.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:47:43">>> I think you should see a little of this though,</subtitle>
+:11:56.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:47:46">because the same time the mouse was invented this was done at Rand.</subtitle>
+:12:02.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:47:52">well at midnight they will go through people's waste paper baskets.</subtitle>
+:12:08.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:47:58">To see how they worked, what were they throwing away?</subtitle>
+:12:11.264 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:48:1">And what people were doing when they were working was making all</subtitle>
+:12:14.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:48:4">kinds of diagrams and little flowcharts and all this stuff.</subtitle>
+:12:17.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:48:7">So they said, okay, well let's invent the first tablet,</subtitle>
+:12:20.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:48:10">As good as most of the tablets you've ever used today.</subtitle>
+:12:26.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:48:16">It's the hallmark of these people is they generally did it good enough and here's-</subtitle>
+:12:29.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:48:19">>> You may start to edit the flow diagram.</subtitle>
+:12:35.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:48:25">First we erase the flow arrow, then move the connector out of the way, so</subtitle>
+:12:38.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:48:28">that we may draw a box in it's place.</subtitle>
+:12:44.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:48:34">The printing in the box is being used as commentary only in this case.</subtitle>
+:12:50.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:48:40">The box is slightly too large, so we may change its size.</subtitle>
+:12:56.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:48:46">Then, draw a flow from the connector to the box.</subtitle>
+:13:02.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:48:52">Attach a decision element to the box, and draw a flow from it to scan.</subtitle>
+:13:08.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:48:58">We then erase the flow- >> Okay so this is about 1968 or so.</subtitle>
+:13:14.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:49:4">Again on a big room sized mainframe, with one guy.</subtitle>
+:13:17.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:49:7"></subtitle>
+:13:20.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:49:10">But, this system really, you could ask your question even more about this.</subtitle>
+:13:23.242 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:49:13">This system was [LAUGH] one of the best systems I've ever used in every.</subtitle>
+:13:29.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:49:19">It felt so intimate, it was so different from the mouse.</subtitle>
+:13:32.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:49:22">It was one of the things that we actually looked at.</subtitle>
+:13:38.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:49:28">I guess I do have to show the next thing here.</subtitle>
+:13:44.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:49:34">Just so you think that VR wasn't something done recently.</subtitle>
+:13:47.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:49:37">But the second thing Ivan did after he came back,</subtitle>
+:13:50.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:49:40">the thing that when it came back from Arpo was to do these.</subtitle>
+:13:53.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:49:43">I worked on this one when I was a graduate student.</subtitle>
+:13:56.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:49:46">You could grab things and have the thing in your hand, grab things and</subtitle>
+:13:59.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:49:49">move them around it.</subtitle>
+:14:02.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:49:52">It's a little exciting because instead of the thing that you used to today.</subtitle>
+:14:05.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:49:55">In the art had two CRTs with 15,000 volts right above your ears crackling away.</subtitle>
+:14:11.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:50:1">So it was a very exciting thing to do and, of course,</subtitle>
+:14:14.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:50:4">one of the hardest things was to do good head positioning back then.</subtitle>
+:14:17.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:50:7">There are many ways of doing it.</subtitle>
+:14:20.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:50:10">One of the things they did here, I won't explain what it is, but</subtitle>
+:14:23.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:50:13">it was hooked to a crane.</subtitle>
+:14:26.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:50:16">So as you walked around this big room at MIT,</subtitle>
+:14:29.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:50:19">a crane would automatically follow you with the positioning thing over your head.</subtitle>
+:14:32.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:50:22">To find out what this was about.</subtitle>
+:14:38.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:50:28">And, man, I'm getting killed because I should stop right now.</subtitle>
+:14:44.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:50:34">But I really have two more things to do, if you could give me two more minutes,</subtitle>
+:14:47.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:50:37">First one here is, this is something you have to think about.</subtitle>
+:14:53.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:50:43">Let time go one way, and progress go the other way.</subtitle>
+:14:59.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:50:49">Yay boo, yay boo, it goes up it goes down.</subtitle>
+:15:02.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:50:52">This is the way people tend to measure things.</subtitle>
+:15:05.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:50:55">If you put in a threshold, then the only things above the threshold count.</subtitle>
+:15:11.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:51:1">Like if these are reading scores, Nothing counts.</subtitle>
+:15:14.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:51:4"></subtitle>
+:15:17.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:51:7">We, of course, never get above the threshold.</subtitle>
+:15:23.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:51:13">And, what is actually needed changes over in time.</subtitle>
+:15:26.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:51:16">You need more, and if you're measuring to a baseline, which people usually do.</subtitle>
+:15:32.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:51:22">One of the ways of improving things, or</subtitle>
+:15:35.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:51:25">making it look like you're not doing such a bad job is to lower the base line.</subtitle>
+:15:38.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:51:28">For example, Apple completely lowered the base line on what</subtitle>
+:15:41.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:51:31">constitutes reasonable user interface for iPhones and iPads.</subtitle>
+:15:47.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:51:37">Interfaces on the system beforehand had an undo, and these don't.</subtitle>
+:15:50.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:51:40">And I can name 15 more things.</subtitle>
+:15:56.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:51:46">So what they did is they decided,</subtitle>
+:15:59.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:51:49">well we're just not going to work on all of those problems anymore.</subtitle>
+:16:02.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:51:52">We're going to condition the unsophisticated public</subtitle>
+:16:05.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:51:55">to do work at the level of a two year old, or a 92 year old.</subtitle>
+:16:11.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:52:1">And we're just going to eliminate everything in between.</subtitle>
+:16:14.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:52:4">And the public has bought it,</subtitle>
+:16:17.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:52:7">because you don't want to count noses when you're looking for quality.</subtitle>
+:16:20.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:52:10">People can be talked into anything.</subtitle>
+:16:23.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:52:13">So what you have to do on this stuff is you have to pick</subtitle>
+:16:26.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:52:16">something that is absolutely above that line.</subtitle>
+:16:29.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:52:19">We call that MacCready "Sweet Spot", he's the guy who did manpowered flight.</subtitle>
+:16:35.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:52:25">And once you have achieved that, it opens up a whole region</subtitle>
+:16:38.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:52:28">that you can explore, and that's what we did at park.</subtitle>
+:16:44.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:52:34">At Moon Shot, was set space travel back 50 years.</subtitle>
+:16:50.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:52:40">No we don't need a moon shot.</subtitle>
+:16:53.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:52:43">You just don't do space travel with chemical rocketry.</subtitle>
+:16:56.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:52:46">And what’s interesting about the people who like Jeff Besolson.</subtitle>
+:17:05.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:52:55">Yeah, Elan, [LAUGH] they don't get it.</subtitle>
+:17:11.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:53:1">Every child who read science fiction in the 50s knew this.</subtitle>
+:17:14.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:53:4"></subtitle>
+:17:17.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:53:7">What that means is, you either have to carry a shitload of reaction mass with</subtitle>
+:17:23.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:53:13">you, if you're doing chemicals, because you can't get the velocity high enough.</subtitle>
+:17:26.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:53:16">So you have to put out a lot of mass, and if you do that you have to lift that mass.</subtitle>
+:17:29.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:53:19">So you wind up with 45 story building rockets just to get into orbit.</subtitle>
+:17:35.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:53:25">That is nuts.</subtitle>
+:17:38.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:53:28">Anyway, I will not go on that.</subtitle>
+:17:41.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:53:31">So, but the thing that was a tragedy was that they were very good proposals for</subtitle>
+:17:47.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:53:37">how to get that high exhaust velocity Using various forms of atomic power.</subtitle>
+:17:53.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:53:43">And it was something that the public was not interested in,</subtitle>
+:17:56.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:53:46">the moon shot was not about space travel.</subtitle>
+:17:59.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:53:49">Okay, so, I'll skip past this.</subtitle>
+:18:05.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:53:55">Because I want to end with, yeah, here's, so</subtitle>
+:18:08.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:53:58">this tablet computer I thought up in 1968.</subtitle>
+:18:11.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:54:1"></subtitle>
+:18:14.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:54:4">One was the familiar tablet, and</subtitle>
+:18:17.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:54:7">the other one was what Ivan's had mount of display was inevitable with Moore's Law.</subtitle>
+:18:23.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:54:13">And then, Nicholas Negroponte had this idea of wearing a watch and</subtitle>
+:18:26.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:54:16">communicating with the rest of the world.</subtitle>
+:18:29.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:54:19">Okay, so here's the last little segment, and then I'll let you go.</subtitle>
+:18:35.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:54:25">Wayne Gretzky, you know who Wayne Gretzky, is I'll bet.</subtitle>
+:18:38.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:54:28">Greatest hockey player who ever lived.</subtitle>
+:18:41.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:54:31">And he was just a little guy, he tried to avoid fights.</subtitle>
+:18:47.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:54:37">They asked him why he took so many shots on goal.</subtitle>
+:18:50.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:54:40">And he says, well you miss 100% of the shots you don't take.</subtitle>
+:18:56.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:54:46">He scored more goals than anybody in history by a thousand.</subtitle>
+:18:59.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:54:49">So, the fact that his percentage of</subtitle>
+:19:05.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:54:55">misses was also high was irrelevant.</subtitle>
+:19:08.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:54:58">And they asked him, why he was better than anybody else?</subtitle>
+:19:11.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:55:1">And he said, well, a good hockey player goes to where the puck is,</subtitle>
+:19:14.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:55:4">a great one goes to where the puck is going to be.</subtitle>
+:19:17.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:55:7">And he didn't mean tracking the puck.</subtitle>
+:19:20.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:55:10">He meant getting into a place where somebody could pass him the puck where</subtitle>
+:19:26.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:55:16">So what he did is he looked at the entire configuration,</subtitle>
+:19:29.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:55:19">saw where the future was going to be, and went to that place in the.</subtitle>
+:19:32.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:55:22">So you can make a game to invent the future out of this.</subtitle>
+:19:38.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:55:28">And so you start off with a cosmic goodness intuition.</subtitle>
+:19:41.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:55:31">Like for me that tablet one was good.</subtitle>
+:19:47.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:55:37">You identify a favorable exponential, like Moore's Law.</subtitle>
+:19:50.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:55:40">You take the cosmic intuition out 30 years,</subtitle>
+:19:53.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:55:43">and you ask, can we say, wouldn't it be ridiculous if we didn't have this.</subtitle>
+:19:59.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:55:49">And say 30 year out, or 30 years away, well of course, we'll have one.</subtitle>
+:20:02.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:55:52">That's what that exponential means.</subtitle>
+:20:05.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:55:55">And bring it back to the 10, 15 year point.</subtitle>
+:20:11.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:56:1">And that point, you can just pay money because that's also what Moore's law and</subtitle>
+:20:14.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:56:4"></subtitle>
+:20:17.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:56:7">Is, if you pay a lot of money now,</subtitle>
+:20:20.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:56:10">you can make the commodity computer of 10, 15 years in the future.</subtitle>
+:20:26.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:56:16">It was about 50 times faster than what you got out of the time sharing terminal.</subtitle>
+:20:32.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:56:22">And make a bunch of them, And you intertwine it, so, run the software.</subtitle>
+:20:38.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:56:28">And then you can do two kinds of computing in the future.</subtitle>
+:20:41.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:56:31">One kind of computing is zillions of experiments to get a user interface</subtitle>
+:20:47.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:56:37">that would be universal for.</subtitle>
+:20:50.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:56:40">Right now, 5 billion people, and deal with</subtitle>
+:20:53.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:56:43">millions of people who were doing applications you've never seen before.</subtitle>
+:20:59.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:56:49">the thing on the right there is Microsoft Word as it was at Xerox Park in 1974.</subtitle>
+:21:05.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:56:55">If you optimize the code,</subtitle>
+:21:08.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:56:58">you can get what the applications are going to be ten years out.</subtitle>
+:21:11.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:57:1">So those are the two things you can do by doing this super computer thing.</subtitle>
+:21:14.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:57:4">And it cost money.</subtitle>
+:21:17.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:57:7">In today's dollars those altas cost about 125K a piece,</subtitle>
+:21:20.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:57:10">and we made two thousand of them.</subtitle>
+:21:23.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:57:13">Got to be a funder who's serious.</subtitle>
+:21:29.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:57:19">Xerox went bat **** when we did it.</subtitle>
+:21:32.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:57:22">They really went bat **** when we wanted to cash them in.</subtitle>
+:21:35.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:57:25">But I'll just leave you this since I'm over time now.</subtitle>
+:21:38.244 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:57:28">I'll leave you this as one of the ways of escaping the present.</subtitle>
+:21:44.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:57:34">Have a glimmer of an idea, take it so far out that you don't have to worry about how</subtitle>
+:21:50.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:57:40">you're going to get there, and then you just bring it back.</subtitle>
+:21:53.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:57:43">So instead of innovating out from the present,</subtitle>
+:21:56.241 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:57:46">what you want to do is to invent the future from the future.</subtitle>
+:21:59.239 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:57:49">You are living the future, and bring the future back.</subtitle>
+:22:02.240 VM76169:53 <subtitle id="0:57:52">Thank you. >> [APPLAUSE]</subtitle>