Difference between revisions of "Delivering the Future (1994)"

From Viewpoints Intelligent Archive
Jump to: navigation, search
(Created page with "{{#evt: service=youtubeIA |id=W4Zir_5bZt0 |alignment=left |autoresize=false }}")
 
Line 3: Line 3:
 
|id=W4Zir_5bZt0
 
|id=W4Zir_5bZt0
 
|alignment=left
 
|alignment=left
|autoresize=false
+
|autoresize=true
 
}}
 
}}
 +
 +
1
 +
00:00:00,370 --> 00:00:04,750
 +
[Applause]
 +
 +
2
 +
00:00:05,990 --> 00:00:12,690
 +
well thank you for inviting me here I
 +
 +
3
 +
00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:16,230
 +
like the title of this session I think
 +
 +
4
 +
00:00:12,690 --> 00:00:19,500
 +
in the first year I was at Xerox PARC I
 +
 +
5
 +
00:00:16,230 --> 00:00:22,920
 +
had an argument with some of the Xerox
 +
 +
6
 +
00:00:19,500 --> 00:00:25,650
 +
executives who are worrying about what
 +
 +
7
 +
00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:27,900
 +
might happen and they wanted to defend
 +
 +
8
 +
00:00:25,650 --> 00:00:31,679
 +
themselves against the future it was so
 +
 +
9
 +
00:00:27,900 --> 00:00:33,000
 +
wimpy I finally got angry at them and I
 +
 +
10
 +
00:00:31,679 --> 00:00:35,190
 +
said look the best way to predict the
 +
 +
11
 +
00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:36,570
 +
future is to invent it don't worry about
 +
 +
12
 +
00:00:35,190 --> 00:00:39,270
 +
what all those other people are going to
 +
 +
13
 +
00:00:36,570 --> 00:00:41,280
 +
do this is the century in which if you
 +
 +
14
 +
00:00:39,270 --> 00:00:43,410
 +
have a vision and you don't violate too
 +
 +
15
 +
00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:45,289
 +
many of Newton's laws you can actually
 +
 +
16
 +
00:00:43,410 --> 00:00:48,270
 +
build the thing that you have in mind
 +
 +
17
 +
00:00:45,289 --> 00:00:50,910
 +
now delivering the future is a more
 +
 +
18
 +
00:00:48,270 --> 00:00:55,199
 +
subtle metaphor so it implies there's
 +
 +
19
 +
00:00:50,910 --> 00:00:56,760
 +
something to deliver like a baby and the
 +
 +
20
 +
00:00:55,199 --> 00:00:59,039
 +
reason I like it is that there's all
 +
 +
21
 +
00:00:56,760 --> 00:01:01,199
 +
this exciting stuff that has to happen a
 +
 +
22
 +
00:00:59,039 --> 00:01:06,750
 +
little earlier in the process in order
 +
 +
23
 +
00:01:01,199 --> 00:01:11,729
 +
to have a baby to deliver we scientists
 +
 +
24
 +
00:01:06,750 --> 00:01:16,439
 +
call that research so I'm going to talk
 +
 +
25
 +
00:01:11,729 --> 00:01:22,140
 +
to you a little bit about how the future
 +
 +
26
 +
00:01:16,439 --> 00:01:24,720
 +
gets invented I think some of the some
 +
 +
27
 +
00:01:22,140 --> 00:01:26,220
 +
of the stories and ideas I think may may
 +
 +
28
 +
00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:31,650
 +
help you now I'm not a professional
 +
 +
29
 +
00:01:26,220 --> 00:01:36,600
 +
speaker I'm still a scientist as my
 +
 +
30
 +
00:01:31,650 --> 00:01:39,869
 +
introducer said my title is a fellow we
 +
 +
31
 +
00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:43,350
 +
decided at Apple that the mass noun for
 +
 +
32
 +
00:01:39,869 --> 00:01:44,790
 +
know there's a pride of lions we decided
 +
 +
33
 +
00:01:43,350 --> 00:01:47,270
 +
that the mass now and for fellows should
 +
 +
34
 +
00:01:44,790 --> 00:01:47,270
 +
be jolly
 +
 +
35
 +
00:01:47,590 --> 00:01:57,850
 +
so we have a jolly of fellows at at
 +
 +
36
 +
00:01:50,140 --> 00:02:02,829
 +
Apple we have three of them now twenty
 +
 +
37
 +
00:01:57,850 --> 00:02:06,610
 +
years ago at Xerox PARC we invented six
 +
 +
38
 +
00:02:02,829 --> 00:02:10,330
 +
things and I would not be here talking
 +
 +
39
 +
00:02:06,610 --> 00:02:17,800
 +
to you if Xerox had accepted any one of
 +
 +
40
 +
00:02:10,330 --> 00:02:22,290
 +
these it was in fact what happened after
 +
 +
41
 +
00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:26,860
 +
we invented these six things that I got
 +
 +
42
 +
00:02:22,290 --> 00:02:29,380
 +
interested in talking to people outside
 +
 +
43
 +
00:02:26,860 --> 00:02:32,290
 +
of the computer field the six things
 +
 +
44
 +
00:02:29,380 --> 00:02:35,410
 +
were the first thing like a workstation
 +
 +
45
 +
00:02:32,290 --> 00:02:38,470
 +
or a modern PC really the first thing
 +
 +
46
 +
00:02:35,410 --> 00:02:40,840
 +
like a Macintosh originally started
 +
 +
47
 +
00:02:38,470 --> 00:02:44,380
 +
working in 1973 the first overlapping
 +
 +
48
 +
00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:52,380
 +
window user interface first modern OOP
 +
 +
49
 +
00:02:44,380 --> 00:02:55,269
 +
system first laser printer and the
 +
 +
50
 +
00:02:52,380 --> 00:02:56,260
 +
ethernet and then the the sixth thing I
 +
 +
51
 +
00:02:55,269 --> 00:02:58,870
 +
didn't have a really good picture
 +
 +
52
 +
00:02:56,260 --> 00:03:01,030
 +
because I just show another Alto there
 +
 +
53
 +
00:02:58,870 --> 00:03:04,959
 +
which was what we call client-server
 +
 +
54
 +
00:03:01,030 --> 00:03:07,510
 +
computing now in today's terms it's
 +
 +
55
 +
00:03:04,959 --> 00:03:11,260
 +
actually pierre-pierre computing because
 +
 +
56
 +
00:03:07,510 --> 00:03:12,730
 +
clients see terms get corrupted I made
 +
 +
57
 +
00:03:11,260 --> 00:03:15,190
 +
up the terms personal computer and I
 +
 +
58
 +
00:03:12,730 --> 00:03:16,720
 +
made up the term object-oriented and
 +
 +
59
 +
00:03:15,190 --> 00:03:19,510
 +
both of those have gotten corrupted into
 +
 +
60
 +
00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:22,239
 +
an almost meaningless terms
 +
 +
61
 +
00:03:19,510 --> 00:03:26,430
 +
client-server has gotten corrupted it's
 +
 +
62
 +
00:03:22,239 --> 00:03:26,430
 +
the new way of saying terminal mainframe
 +
 +
63
 +
00:03:27,630 --> 00:03:33,330
 +
I can assure you that was not what we
 +
 +
64
 +
00:03:30,090 --> 00:03:35,670
 +
had in mind any more than we thought
 +
 +
65
 +
00:03:33,330 --> 00:03:39,000
 +
that C++ would be called an
 +
 +
66
 +
00:03:35,670 --> 00:03:41,720
 +
object-oriented language or that the IBM
 +
 +
67
 +
00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:45,410
 +
PC would be called a personal computer I
 +
 +
68
 +
00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:48,090
 +
was more meanings originally or that
 +
 +
69
 +
00:03:45,410 --> 00:03:53,070
 +
windows 3.0 would be called a user
 +
 +
70
 +
00:03:48,090 --> 00:03:57,600
 +
interface as far as that goes but that's
 +
 +
71
 +
00:03:53,070 --> 00:04:03,870
 +
the way it goes now what happened is
 +
 +
72
 +
00:03:57,600 --> 00:04:07,740
 +
that around 1975 76 we had about 700 of
 +
 +
73
 +
00:04:03,870 --> 00:04:11,730
 +
these machines both at Palo Alto and in
 +
 +
74
 +
00:04:07,740 --> 00:04:14,580
 +
Rochester and we had I guess eight or
 +
 +
75
 +
00:04:11,730 --> 00:04:17,160
 +
nine Ethernet linked together and then
 +
 +
76
 +
00:04:14,580 --> 00:04:19,950
 +
linked by long lines from Rochester to
 +
 +
77
 +
00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:22,650
 +
Palo Alto and you could actually sit
 +
 +
78
 +
00:04:19,950 --> 00:04:25,020
 +
down and do something in Rochester that
 +
 +
79
 +
00:04:22,650 --> 00:04:27,090
 +
is very hard to do today you could go to
 +
 +
80
 +
00:04:25,020 --> 00:04:32,610
 +
Rochester and sit down at an alto and
 +
 +
81
 +
00:04:27,090 --> 00:04:34,920
 +
work as though that was your alto so
 +
 +
82
 +
00:04:32,610 --> 00:04:37,290
 +
this was a what you what today is called
 +
 +
83
 +
00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:39,720
 +
a natural network virtual address space
 +
 +
84
 +
00:04:37,290 --> 00:04:41,670
 +
the computations actually were able to
 +
 +
85
 +
00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:45,750
 +
float around the network they were not
 +
 +
86
 +
00:04:41,670 --> 00:04:49,290
 +
bound to specific machines and what
 +
 +
87
 +
00:04:45,750 --> 00:04:51,750
 +
happened was in August 1976 Xerox turned
 +
 +
88
 +
00:04:49,290 --> 00:04:54,540
 +
down all of this technology even though
 +
 +
89
 +
00:04:51,750 --> 00:04:56,520
 +
there were hundreds of machines working
 +
 +
90
 +
00:04:54,540 --> 00:04:59,760
 +
software the first desktop publishing
 +
 +
91
 +
00:04:56,520 --> 00:05:02,430
 +
system Microsoft Word which was
 +
 +
92
 +
00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:05,580
 +
originally called Bravo was done at Parc
 +
 +
93
 +
00:05:02,430 --> 00:05:07,860
 +
it was the word processing system that
 +
 +
94
 +
00:05:05,580 --> 00:05:10,580
 +
we used all of this stuff they turned it
 +
 +
95
 +
00:05:07,860 --> 00:05:15,090
 +
down of course that was a great shock
 +
 +
96
 +
00:05:10,580 --> 00:05:17,790
 +
but what did we know we kept on plugging
 +
 +
97
 +
00:05:15,090 --> 00:05:20,040
 +
away at at what we're doing in 1978 I
 +
 +
98
 +
00:05:17,790 --> 00:05:22,380
 +
met several of the executives who had
 +
 +
99
 +
00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:23,880
 +
made that decision and was really
 +
 +
100
 +
00:05:22,380 --> 00:05:27,240
 +
surprised to discover that they were
 +
 +
101
 +
00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:32,490
 +
actually somewhat intelligent even even
 +
 +
102
 +
00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:34,200
 +
for Xerox executives and then that was
 +
 +
103
 +
00:05:32,490 --> 00:05:35,490
 +
when I started worrying because you see
 +
 +
104
 +
00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:39,870
 +
when they turned it down we just thought
 +
 +
105
 +
00:05:35,490 --> 00:05:41,340
 +
well they're stupid they're dumb what do
 +
 +
106
 +
00:05:39,870 --> 00:05:44,290
 +
they know
 +
 +
107
 +
00:05:41,340 --> 00:05:45,670
 +
you know this is hopeless but when I
 +
 +
108
 +
00:05:44,290 --> 00:05:47,260
 +
found out they were intelligent and they
 +
 +
109
 +
00:05:45,670 --> 00:05:49,510
 +
still turned it down I realized that
 +
 +
110
 +
00:05:47,260 --> 00:05:52,060
 +
something much more serious was going on
 +
 +
111
 +
00:05:49,510 --> 00:05:54,220
 +
and one way of saying it as they were
 +
 +
112
 +
00:05:52,060 --> 00:05:56,320
 +
still doing Ptolemaic astronomy in
 +
 +
113
 +
00:05:54,220 --> 00:05:58,750
 +
Connecticut and we had started doing
 +
 +
114
 +
00:05:56,320 --> 00:06:01,990
 +
Copernican astronomy out in California
 +
 +
115
 +
00:05:58,750 --> 00:06:05,290
 +
when you get one of those where you get
 +
 +
116
 +
00:06:01,990 --> 00:06:07,300
 +
a complete miss between two ways of
 +
 +
117
 +
00:06:05,290 --> 00:06:08,950
 +
looking at the world you have something
 +
 +
118
 +
00:06:07,300 --> 00:06:11,440
 +
really serious because there aren't even
 +
 +
119
 +
00:06:08,950 --> 00:06:14,650
 +
grounds for conversation and what's
 +
 +
120
 +
00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:17,680
 +
worse the same words get used over again
 +
 +
121
 +
00:06:14,650 --> 00:06:20,650
 +
but in different ways in astronomy the
 +
 +
122
 +
00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:23,350
 +
word orbit comes from one of the initial
 +
 +
123
 +
00:06:20,650 --> 00:06:25,870
 +
beliefs by the Greeks that the planets
 +
 +
124
 +
00:06:23,350 --> 00:06:28,540
 +
are on transparent spheres you ever
 +
 +
125
 +
00:06:25,870 --> 00:06:30,610
 +
wonder why a planar orbit was called orb
 +
 +
126
 +
00:06:28,540 --> 00:06:33,100
 +
in orbit because they thought they were
 +
 +
127
 +
00:06:30,610 --> 00:06:37,450
 +
on glass spheres then it got taken over
 +
 +
128
 +
00:06:33,100 --> 00:06:39,190
 +
to mean planar orbits got reused by
 +
 +
129
 +
00:06:37,450 --> 00:06:41,770
 +
Copernicus to me and a heliocentric
 +
 +
130
 +
00:06:39,190 --> 00:06:44,530
 +
system got really used by Newton and
 +
 +
131
 +
00:06:41,770 --> 00:06:47,080
 +
Kepler and got reused by Einstein same
 +
 +
132
 +
00:06:44,530 --> 00:06:49,090
 +
word we use today the way people have
 +
 +
133
 +
00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:51,280
 +
trouble with science science
 +
 +
134
 +
00:06:49,090 --> 00:06:56,350
 +
unfortunately decided to reuse the word
 +
 +
135
 +
00:06:51,280 --> 00:06:57,820
 +
theory and people when they hear about
 +
 +
136
 +
00:06:56,350 --> 00:07:00,250
 +
the theory of relativity they say oh
 +
 +
137
 +
00:06:57,820 --> 00:07:03,370
 +
that's just a theory or the theory of
 +
 +
138
 +
00:07:00,250 --> 00:07:05,710
 +
evolution that's just a theory theory
 +
 +
139
 +
00:07:03,370 --> 00:07:09,790
 +
and science means something completely
 +
 +
140
 +
00:07:05,710 --> 00:07:12,280
 +
different we separate out the two words
 +
 +
141
 +
00:07:09,790 --> 00:07:14,530
 +
theory and conjecture it's a theory and
 +
 +
142
 +
00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:17,310
 +
science is something that has been set
 +
 +
143
 +
00:07:14,530 --> 00:07:19,960
 +
up in such a way and beaten on for years
 +
 +
144
 +
00:07:17,310 --> 00:07:22,120
 +
so it is a ball stirred set of arguments
 +
 +
145
 +
00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:23,500
 +
why don't we call it the truth the
 +
 +
146
 +
00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:27,250
 +
reason is is that science doesn't
 +
 +
147
 +
00:07:23,500 --> 00:07:31,090
 +
believe that you can find truth it's a
 +
 +
148
 +
00:07:27,250 --> 00:07:32,770
 +
cliche and a myth does science believes
 +
 +
149
 +
00:07:31,090 --> 00:07:35,050
 +
that what you can find are better and
 +
 +
150
 +
00:07:32,770 --> 00:07:36,070
 +
better mappings of the world so that's
 +
 +
151
 +
00:07:35,050 --> 00:07:39,040
 +
what I'm going to talk to you today
 +
 +
152
 +
00:07:36,070 --> 00:07:42,730
 +
about are because the way you get into
 +
 +
153
 +
00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:44,770
 +
the future is by realizing that the way
 +
 +
154
 +
00:07:42,730 --> 00:07:47,290
 +
we look at the world in any given time
 +
 +
155
 +
00:07:44,770 --> 00:07:49,630
 +
is always through our own mappings and
 +
 +
156
 +
00:07:47,290 --> 00:07:50,710
 +
we can come up with different mappings
 +
 +
157
 +
00:07:49,630 --> 00:07:52,240
 +
and when we come up with different
 +
 +
158
 +
00:07:50,710 --> 00:07:55,120
 +
mappings we can look at the world in a
 +
 +
159
 +
00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:56,680
 +
different way now
 +
 +
160
 +
00:07:55,120 --> 00:08:01,030
 +
the big problem with predicting the
 +
 +
161
 +
00:07:56,680 --> 00:08:04,960
 +
future is in large part because of the
 +
 +
162
 +
00:08:01,030 --> 00:08:07,150
 +
funny ways that human like to think so
 +
 +
163
 +
00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:10,810
 +
here are three ways of getting from A to
 +
 +
164
 +
00:08:07,150 --> 00:08:13,990
 +
B the first one is random walk you start
 +
 +
165
 +
00:08:10,810 --> 00:08:15,790
 +
off from place a there on the left and
 +
 +
166
 +
00:08:13,990 --> 00:08:17,560
 +
at every corner you take a random
 +
 +
167
 +
00:08:15,790 --> 00:08:20,290
 +
turning and eventually you can prove
 +
 +
168
 +
00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:22,780
 +
that you will get to B I always think of
 +
 +
169
 +
00:08:20,290 --> 00:08:27,389
 +
that as a perfect example of hire
 +
 +
170
 +
00:08:22,780 --> 00:08:32,950
 +
management's main way of doing things
 +
 +
171
 +
00:08:27,389 --> 00:08:34,779
 +
now lower in the organization you have a
 +
 +
172
 +
00:08:32,950 --> 00:08:37,539
 +
more rational way of looking at it which
 +
 +
173
 +
00:08:34,779 --> 00:08:39,610
 +
is reduce the differences this is what
 +
 +
174
 +
00:08:37,539 --> 00:08:43,089
 +
they teach in business school and in
 +
 +
175
 +
00:08:39,610 --> 00:08:46,140
 +
most elementary and high schools and
 +
 +
176
 +
00:08:43,089 --> 00:08:48,070
 +
colleges is problem-solving
 +
 +
177
 +
00:08:46,140 --> 00:08:50,680
 +
problem-solving the way you solve a
 +
 +
178
 +
00:08:48,070 --> 00:08:53,320
 +
problem here is that at each step of the
 +
 +
179
 +
00:08:50,680 --> 00:08:55,570
 +
way you see if you can get closer to the
 +
 +
180
 +
00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:57,130
 +
gold state and then when you have
 +
 +
181
 +
00:08:55,570 --> 00:08:59,830
 +
reduced that difference to zero you've
 +
 +
182
 +
00:08:57,130 --> 00:09:01,630
 +
achieved the goal now it turns out that
 +
 +
183
 +
00:08:59,830 --> 00:09:03,460
 +
both of these ways of doing things are
 +
 +
184
 +
00:09:01,630 --> 00:09:07,750
 +
completely have been obsolete for many
 +
 +
185
 +
00:09:03,460 --> 00:09:11,680
 +
many years the way really good things
 +
 +
186
 +
00:09:07,750 --> 00:09:14,100
 +
are done is at the bottom there and what
 +
 +
187
 +
00:09:11,680 --> 00:09:18,100
 +
you do is instead of going from A to B
 +
 +
188
 +
00:09:14,100 --> 00:09:21,310
 +
randomly or by reducing differences what
 +
 +
189
 +
00:09:18,100 --> 00:09:25,480
 +
you do is you go away from B for a while
 +
 +
190
 +
00:09:21,310 --> 00:09:26,980
 +
and find us find a superhighway because
 +
 +
191
 +
00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:29,500
 +
you can go away from B for a while and
 +
 +
192
 +
00:09:26,980 --> 00:09:32,290
 +
you find a superhighway you can get very
 +
 +
193
 +
00:09:29,500 --> 00:09:35,350
 +
very close to B be very very rapidly
 +
 +
194
 +
00:09:32,290 --> 00:09:37,930
 +
then get off find B now this is very
 +
 +
195
 +
00:09:35,350 --> 00:09:40,480
 +
hard for people to do companies have the
 +
 +
196
 +
00:09:37,930 --> 00:09:44,050
 +
hardest time going away from their short
 +
 +
197
 +
00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:48,040
 +
term goals in order to build structures
 +
 +
198
 +
00:09:44,050 --> 00:09:50,620
 +
that will allow them to deal with many
 +
 +
199
 +
00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:51,670
 +
many goals in the future rather than
 +
 +
200
 +
00:09:50,620 --> 00:09:55,180
 +
just the ones that they're working with
 +
 +
201
 +
00:09:51,670 --> 00:09:58,959
 +
now you could think of this third way of
 +
 +
202
 +
00:09:55,180 --> 00:10:00,130
 +
looking at things as a architecture if
 +
 +
203
 +
00:09:58,959 --> 00:10:05,700
 +
you want you could think of it as a
 +
 +
204
 +
00:10:00,130 --> 00:10:08,460
 +
paradigm that's going away from the goal
 +
 +
205
 +
00:10:05,700 --> 00:10:11,110
 +
sometimes called research
 +
 +
206
 +
00:10:08,460 --> 00:10:13,420
 +
it's the kind of investment that you
 +
 +
207
 +
00:10:11,110 --> 00:10:15,720
 +
make in order to find large-scale
 +
 +
208
 +
00:10:13,420 --> 00:10:18,700
 +
architectures that are going to help you
 +
 +
209
 +
00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:20,800
 +
so if we want to predict the future we
 +
 +
210
 +
00:10:18,700 --> 00:10:24,310
 +
have to find some way that is not
 +
 +
211
 +
00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:26,230
 +
extrapolate 'iv something that doesn't
 +
 +
212
 +
00:10:24,310 --> 00:10:27,970
 +
rely on the future being a lot like the
 +
 +
213
 +
00:10:26,230 --> 00:10:29,950
 +
present where else we're just going to
 +
 +
214
 +
00:10:27,970 --> 00:10:36,610
 +
come up with improved versions of the
 +
 +
215
 +
00:10:29,950 --> 00:10:38,890
 +
present so here is a dream called MMX is
 +
 +
216
 +
00:10:36,610 --> 00:10:42,220
 +
done by Vannevar Bush who is president
 +
 +
217
 +
00:10:38,890 --> 00:10:44,560
 +
roosevelt's science advisor who wrote an
 +
 +
218
 +
00:10:42,220 --> 00:10:46,990
 +
article in 1945 and in that article he
 +
 +
219
 +
00:10:44,560 --> 00:10:48,880
 +
said not too long from now everybody
 +
 +
220
 +
00:10:46,990 --> 00:10:52,540
 +
will be able to have in their house a
 +
 +
221
 +
00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:56,400
 +
device the size of a desk in that desk
 +
 +
222
 +
00:10:52,540 --> 00:11:00,730
 +
stored optically will be the contents of
 +
 +
223
 +
00:10:56,400 --> 00:11:03,700
 +
about a small town library about five to
 +
 +
224
 +
00:11:00,730 --> 00:11:04,990
 +
ten thousand volumes worth of materials
 +
 +
225
 +
00:11:03,700 --> 00:11:09,880
 +
and we'll be able to search that we'll
 +
 +
226
 +
00:11:04,990 --> 00:11:11,410
 +
be able to look on look at this material
 +
 +
227
 +
00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:14,950
 +
on various screens and we'll have
 +
 +
228
 +
00:11:11,410 --> 00:11:17,440
 +
pointing devices that we can put new
 +
 +
229
 +
00:11:14,950 --> 00:11:22,600
 +
information in and keyboards and etc etc
 +
 +
230
 +
00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:25,600
 +
so this is Memex written in 1945 by a
 +
 +
231
 +
00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:26,860
 +
pretty good scientist I had some good
 +
 +
232
 +
00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:28,840
 +
reasons to believe that this could
 +
 +
233
 +
00:11:26,860 --> 00:11:31,240
 +
happen because he was aware of things
 +
 +
234
 +
00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:33,610
 +
that were going on at the time including
 +
 +
235
 +
00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:35,850
 +
the development of computers and of
 +
 +
236
 +
00:11:33,610 --> 00:11:38,890
 +
various kinds of dry photography
 +
 +
237
 +
00:11:35,850 --> 00:11:41,500
 +
microfilm microfiche and so forth we're
 +
 +
238
 +
00:11:38,890 --> 00:11:44,620
 +
all being developed then the critical
 +
 +
239
 +
00:11:41,500 --> 00:11:46,660
 +
thing about this for the story today is
 +
 +
240
 +
00:11:44,620 --> 00:11:49,000
 +
that a number of the people who invented
 +
 +
241
 +
00:11:46,660 --> 00:11:53,350
 +
the technologies that you're using today
 +
 +
242
 +
00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:54,790
 +
saw this Engelbart who was a towering
 +
 +
243
 +
00:11:53,350 --> 00:11:57,880
 +
figure we'll meet him in a minute
 +
 +
244
 +
00:11:54,790 --> 00:12:00,340
 +
saw this in 1945 he was in the Navy and
 +
 +
245
 +
00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:05,440
 +
he read it read this version in Life
 +
 +
246
 +
00:12:00,340 --> 00:12:08,890
 +
magazine had pictures on it I saw it
 +
 +
247
 +
00:12:05,440 --> 00:12:11,550
 +
when I was 14 years old as a result of
 +
 +
248
 +
00:12:08,890 --> 00:12:15,280
 +
reading a science fiction book in 1954
 +
 +
249
 +
00:12:11,550 --> 00:12:16,900
 +
so and other people saw it and when it
 +
 +
250
 +
00:12:15,280 --> 00:12:20,260
 +
came time to actually do it there was
 +
 +
251
 +
00:12:16,900 --> 00:12:21,580
 +
already an image of what it would be
 +
 +
252
 +
00:12:20,260 --> 00:12:25,720
 +
really nice to have
 +
 +
253
 +
00:12:21,580 --> 00:12:28,030
 +
it didn't look at all like ENIAC a huge
 +
 +
254
 +
00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:31,570
 +
mainframe computer for solving ballistic
 +
 +
255
 +
00:12:28,030 --> 00:12:35,290
 +
problems it didn't look like a univac it
 +
 +
256
 +
00:12:31,570 --> 00:12:37,720
 +
didn't look like a any kind of mainframe
 +
 +
257
 +
00:12:35,290 --> 00:12:40,000
 +
computer in IBM 650 this looked like
 +
 +
258
 +
00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:41,520
 +
something that a person could use and
 +
 +
259
 +
00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:46,450
 +
actually this became the rallying cry
 +
 +
260
 +
00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:49,110
 +
starting around 1960 ok so there are
 +
 +
261
 +
00:12:46,450 --> 00:12:51,910
 +
several different ways of thinking about
 +
 +
262
 +
00:12:49,110 --> 00:12:53,380
 +
computing back then one was that the
 +
 +
263
 +
00:12:51,910 --> 00:12:56,320
 +
mainframe was gone of a universal
 +
 +
264
 +
00:12:53,380 --> 00:13:00,370
 +
factory that was IBM's way of thinking
 +
 +
265
 +
00:12:56,320 --> 00:13:04,530
 +
about it Engelbert thought of computing
 +
 +
266
 +
00:13:00,370 --> 00:13:07,930
 +
as a kind of a vehicle now Engle Bart
 +
 +
267
 +
00:13:04,530 --> 00:13:11,080
 +
was the guy who invented the mouse and
 +
 +
268
 +
00:13:07,930 --> 00:13:12,910
 +
that looks like a fairly modern picture
 +
 +
269
 +
00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:14,980
 +
because let me ask the crowd here how
 +
 +
270
 +
00:13:12,910 --> 00:13:19,240
 +
many people have in their office right
 +
 +
271
 +
00:13:14,980 --> 00:13:20,770
 +
now a two-page display right not one of
 +
 +
272
 +
00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:22,510
 +
these little guys but one of these guys
 +
 +
273
 +
00:13:20,770 --> 00:13:25,510
 +
you can put two two full pages of
 +
 +
274
 +
00:13:22,510 --> 00:13:27,460
 +
display okay couple people so there's
 +
 +
275
 +
00:13:25,510 --> 00:13:29,830
 +
one right there that was the first one
 +
 +
276
 +
00:13:27,460 --> 00:13:36,390
 +
anybody ever used that picture was taken
 +
 +
277
 +
00:13:29,830 --> 00:13:38,740
 +
in 1966 okay so in 1966 Engelbart had
 +
 +
278
 +
00:13:36,390 --> 00:13:41,080
 +
thought through that computers were not
 +
 +
279
 +
00:13:38,740 --> 00:13:44,620
 +
about processing numbers they were
 +
 +
280
 +
00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:45,790
 +
actually there to relate information now
 +
 +
281
 +
00:13:44,620 --> 00:13:47,980
 +
he was one of the people who invented
 +
 +
282
 +
00:13:45,790 --> 00:13:49,210
 +
one of the first word processors but he
 +
 +
283
 +
00:13:47,980 --> 00:13:50,280
 +
didn't think computers were for word
 +
 +
284
 +
00:13:49,210 --> 00:13:52,600
 +
processing
 +
 +
285
 +
00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:54,820
 +
he didn't think they were for outlying
 +
 +
286
 +
00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:57,040
 +
processing he thought that they were for
 +
 +
287
 +
00:13:54,820 --> 00:14:00,340
 +
relating information and he realized
 +
 +
288
 +
00:13:57,040 --> 00:14:09,550
 +
something very very profound about
 +
 +
289
 +
00:14:00,340 --> 00:14:12,790
 +
computing that is an ordinary physical
 +
 +
290
 +
00:14:09,550 --> 00:14:16,720
 +
space that we live in if we have point a
 +
 +
291
 +
00:14:12,790 --> 00:14:19,560
 +
here and we have a point B down here it
 +
 +
292
 +
00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:19,560
 +
isn't the same place
 +
 +
293
 +
00:14:21,100 --> 00:14:27,420
 +
what's been generated in between them is
 +
 +
294
 +
00:14:23,730 --> 00:14:30,910
 +
that horrible thing called distance an
 +
 +
295
 +
00:14:27,420 --> 00:14:32,320
 +
angle Bart realized something very
 +
 +
296
 +
00:14:30,910 --> 00:14:34,890
 +
interesting about distance and that is
 +
 +
297
 +
00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:38,140
 +
if here's that this is a two dimensional
 +
 +
298
 +
00:14:34,890 --> 00:14:41,680
 +
space we have a two dimensional distance
 +
 +
299
 +
00:14:38,140 --> 00:14:44,200
 +
but what's incredible about distance is
 +
 +
300
 +
00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:48,520
 +
if you give me one more dimension I can
 +
 +
301
 +
00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:49,990
 +
get rid of the distance right just one
 +
 +
302
 +
00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:51,700
 +
more dimension than the dimension of my
 +
 +
303
 +
00:14:49,990 --> 00:14:53,500
 +
information and I can get all of the
 +
 +
304
 +
00:14:51,700 --> 00:14:57,160
 +
intervention interesting information in
 +
 +
305
 +
00:14:53,500 --> 00:15:01,110
 +
the same place in hyperspace and I can
 +
 +
306
 +
00:14:57,160 --> 00:15:01,110
 +
do it for any number of them
 +
 +
307
 +
00:15:01,230 --> 00:15:05,650
 +
that's what Engelbart did so he was the
 +
 +
308
 +
00:15:04,390 --> 00:15:08,470
 +
guy who invented what we now call
 +
 +
309
 +
00:15:05,650 --> 00:15:10,780
 +
hypertext or hyper media he realized
 +
 +
310
 +
00:15:08,470 --> 00:15:13,360
 +
that what people really want is not an
 +
 +
311
 +
00:15:10,780 --> 00:15:16,510
 +
imitation of paper they want something
 +
 +
312
 +
00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:18,610
 +
better they don't want to automate old
 +
 +
313
 +
00:15:16,510 --> 00:15:21,370
 +
things what they need is to take all the
 +
 +
314
 +
00:15:18,610 --> 00:15:23,260
 +
interesting information about a wide
 +
 +
315
 +
00:15:21,370 --> 00:15:25,830
 +
number of things and exits so that all
 +
 +
316
 +
00:15:23,260 --> 00:15:30,600
 +
of those things are in the same place
 +
 +
317
 +
00:15:25,830 --> 00:15:32,890
 +
and Ivan Sutherland around the same time
 +
 +
318
 +
00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:34,480
 +
did something wonderful he was the guy
 +
 +
319
 +
00:15:32,890 --> 00:15:37,720
 +
who invented computer graphics it was
 +
 +
320
 +
00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:39,790
 +
invented around 1962 and again he just
 +
 +
321
 +
00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:42,970
 +
didn't do it to imitate paper to imitate
 +
 +
322
 +
00:15:39,790 --> 00:15:44,800
 +
drafting he looked at and said what else
 +
 +
323
 +
00:15:42,970 --> 00:15:47,440
 +
can it do this is what we should always
 +
 +
324
 +
00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:50,050
 +
ask most important question what else
 +
 +
325
 +
00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:52,450
 +
can it do and what it could do is it
 +
 +
326
 +
00:15:50,050 --> 00:15:55,450
 +
could simulate things so on this thing
 +
 +
327
 +
00:15:52,450 --> 00:15:57,010
 +
this picture taken in 1962 Sutherland is
 +
 +
328
 +
00:15:55,450 --> 00:15:59,490
 +
sitting in front of a bridge that he's
 +
 +
329
 +
00:15:57,010 --> 00:16:02,500
 +
drawn and sketchpad and that bridge is
 +
 +
330
 +
00:15:59,490 --> 00:16:04,270
 +
dynamically sustaining a weight and
 +
 +
331
 +
00:16:02,500 --> 00:16:06,940
 +
showing him what the stresses and
 +
 +
332
 +
00:16:04,270 --> 00:16:09,850
 +
strains on the bridge are so here are
 +
 +
333
 +
00:16:06,940 --> 00:16:13,690
 +
three completely different metaphors for
 +
 +
334
 +
00:16:09,850 --> 00:16:15,970
 +
computing I think you'll agree that the
 +
 +
335
 +
00:16:13,690 --> 00:16:17,640
 +
dominant metaphor today is still the
 +
 +
336
 +
00:16:15,970 --> 00:16:21,430
 +
Universal Factory
 +
 +
337
 +
00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:23,640
 +
American business by and large uses
 +
 +
338
 +
00:16:21,430 --> 00:16:28,660
 +
computers to automate accounting I'm
 +
 +
339
 +
00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:30,390
 +
sure that Wells Fargo does really do
 +
 +
340
 +
00:16:28,660 --> 00:16:34,360
 +
they think of it as a vehicle for
 +
 +
341
 +
00:16:30,390 --> 00:16:34,810
 +
traversing hyperspace where all of the
 +
 +
342
 +
00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:36,580
 +
stuff
 +
 +
343
 +
00:16:34,810 --> 00:16:38,830
 +
of interest to you should be available
 +
 +
344
 +
00:16:36,580 --> 00:16:41,380
 +
dynamically and rarely do they think of
 +
 +
345
 +
00:16:38,830 --> 00:16:44,050
 +
it as a simulator for being able to deal
 +
 +
346
 +
00:16:41,380 --> 00:16:45,580
 +
with very complex problems and try and
 +
 +
347
 +
00:16:44,050 --> 00:16:49,810
 +
understand what happens next
 +
 +
348
 +
00:16:45,580 --> 00:16:51,310
 +
now individuals do about 70% of the use
 +
 +
349
 +
00:16:49,810 --> 00:16:56,860
 +
of spreadsheets on personal computers
 +
 +
350
 +
00:16:51,310 --> 00:16:59,850
 +
our what-ifs but IT organizations almost
 +
 +
351
 +
00:16:56,860 --> 00:17:05,650
 +
never do IT organizations run
 +
 +
352
 +
00:16:59,850 --> 00:17:07,030
 +
post-mortems on already in bomb de right
 +
 +
353
 +
00:17:05,650 --> 00:17:09,760
 +
by the time they get around to writing
 +
 +
354
 +
00:17:07,030 --> 00:17:12,430
 +
an application which is usually 18
 +
 +
355
 +
00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:14,939
 +
months after it was requested the
 +
 +
356
 +
00:17:12,430 --> 00:17:18,310
 +
information is not of interest anymore
 +
 +
357
 +
00:17:14,939 --> 00:17:20,050
 +
so the metaphor that we pick for
 +
 +
358
 +
00:17:18,310 --> 00:17:24,730
 +
thinking about what computing is is very
 +
 +
359
 +
00:17:20,050 --> 00:17:27,610
 +
very critical now I started thinking
 +
 +
360
 +
00:17:24,730 --> 00:17:29,440
 +
about I started in 1961 and I started
 +
 +
361
 +
00:17:27,610 --> 00:17:31,720
 +
thinking about this stuff and it I was
 +
 +
362
 +
00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:36,790
 +
very intrigued with angle Bart's stuff
 +
 +
363
 +
00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:39,490
 +
and in 1967 I built this machine in the
 +
 +
364
 +
00:17:36,790 --> 00:17:41,679
 +
center the top Center there it was
 +
 +
365
 +
00:17:39,490 --> 00:17:43,570
 +
called the Flex machine so it looks like
 +
 +
366
 +
00:17:41,679 --> 00:17:46,150
 +
a personal computer of today it was a
 +
 +
367
 +
00:17:43,570 --> 00:17:48,670
 +
personal computer was a desktop computer
 +
 +
368
 +
00:17:46,150 --> 00:17:52,090
 +
for very special deaths namely those
 +
 +
369
 +
00:17:48,670 --> 00:17:53,940
 +
made out of steel so weighed about 400
 +
 +
370
 +
00:17:52,090 --> 00:17:57,060
 +
pounds
 +
 +
371
 +
00:17:53,940 --> 00:18:01,470
 +
and had a had a fan that was likened to
 +
 +
372
 +
00:17:57,060 --> 00:18:04,110
 +
a 747 taking off C in those days the
 +
 +
373
 +
00:18:01,470 --> 00:18:05,520
 +
integrated circuit packages integrated
 +
 +
374
 +
00:18:04,110 --> 00:18:08,760
 +
circuits were very very small they only
 +
 +
375
 +
00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:10,920
 +
had about 16 or 32 gates on them and so
 +
 +
376
 +
00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:13,290
 +
this machine which was quite weak by
 +
 +
377
 +
00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:16,650
 +
today's standards had more than 700 of
 +
 +
378
 +
00:18:13,290 --> 00:18:20,100
 +
those little black boxes in it and so it
 +
 +
379
 +
00:18:16,650 --> 00:18:22,050
 +
generated a lot of heat and then I
 +
 +
380
 +
00:18:20,100 --> 00:18:25,710
 +
happened to see some of seymour papert's
 +
 +
381
 +
00:18:22,050 --> 00:18:27,510
 +
early work with logo and it got me
 +
 +
382
 +
00:18:25,710 --> 00:18:29,600
 +
thinking all of a sudden that computers
 +
 +
383
 +
00:18:27,510 --> 00:18:32,910
 +
were not Veals
 +
 +
384
 +
00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:34,560
 +
computers were like media they were like
 +
 +
385
 +
00:18:32,910 --> 00:18:40,890
 +
media and I suddenly remembered
 +
 +
386
 +
00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:42,270
 +
something quite striking I don't know
 +
 +
387
 +
00:18:40,890 --> 00:18:45,270
 +
how many people here have ever been in a
 +
 +
388
 +
00:18:42,270 --> 00:18:48,450
 +
medieval library there's one still set
 +
 +
389
 +
00:18:45,270 --> 00:18:50,430
 +
up in Florence and what they look like
 +
 +
390
 +
00:18:48,450 --> 00:18:54,210
 +
is there a room about four times this
 +
 +
391
 +
00:18:50,430 --> 00:18:55,770
 +
size there are no shelves why because
 +
 +
392
 +
00:18:54,210 --> 00:18:58,380
 +
most libraries had less than a hundred
 +
 +
393
 +
00:18:55,770 --> 00:19:02,370
 +
books one of the largest libraries in
 +
 +
394
 +
00:18:58,380 --> 00:19:06,570
 +
Europe the Vatican Library in the year
 +
 +
395
 +
00:19:02,370 --> 00:19:09,720
 +
1400 only had 392 books each Brook took
 +
 +
396
 +
00:19:06,570 --> 00:19:13,140
 +
about 10 to 15 years to copy by a group
 +
 +
397
 +
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:14,910
 +
of group of monks so when he went into a
 +
 +
398
 +
00:19:13,140 --> 00:19:19,800
 +
medieval library what you saw were
 +
 +
399
 +
00:19:14,910 --> 00:19:25,110
 +
tables reading areas each book was
 +
 +
400
 +
00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:27,050
 +
chained to the table table after table
 +
 +
401
 +
00:19:25,110 --> 00:19:29,370
 +
after table about a hundred of them and
 +
 +
402
 +
00:19:27,050 --> 00:19:32,480
 +
so they it flashed into my mind that
 +
 +
403
 +
00:19:29,370 --> 00:19:35,340
 +
looks just like a time-sharing bullpen
 +
 +
404
 +
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:38,790
 +
right time sharing terminals using
 +
 +
405
 +
00:19:35,340 --> 00:19:40,730
 +
something so expensive only an
 +
 +
406
 +
00:19:38,790 --> 00:19:42,720
 +
institution could own it
 +
 +
407
 +
00:19:40,730 --> 00:19:47,730
 +
individuals accept that unless they were
 +
 +
408
 +
00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:51,630
 +
kings couldn't own this stuff and then I
 +
 +
409
 +
00:19:47,730 --> 00:19:54,870
 +
flashed to Gutenberg's Bible which was
 +
 +
410
 +
00:19:51,630 --> 00:19:57,660
 +
printed but it was printed in imitation
 +
 +
411
 +
00:19:54,870 --> 00:19:59,400
 +
of this stuff and I suddenly looked at
 +
 +
412
 +
00:19:57,660 --> 00:20:00,780
 +
the Flex machine and said you know that
 +
 +
413
 +
00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:05,700
 +
thing looks just like a time-sharing
 +
 +
414
 +
00:20:00,780 --> 00:20:06,809
 +
terminal is this am I just imitating the
 +
 +
415
 +
00:20:05,700 --> 00:20:09,929
 +
past
 +
 +
416
 +
00:20:06,809 --> 00:20:11,789
 +
what is this thing by the way Guttenberg
 +
 +
417
 +
00:20:09,929 --> 00:20:15,990
 +
buy it the first Gutenberg Bibles were
 +
 +
418
 +
00:20:11,789 --> 00:20:19,200
 +
incredibly cheap costs only two years of
 +
 +
419
 +
00:20:15,990 --> 00:20:21,210
 +
a clerks wages to buy one it was about
 +
 +
420
 +
00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:24,960
 +
sixty thousand dollars today and if you
 +
 +
421
 +
00:20:21,210 --> 00:20:28,559
 +
think of that if you think of that as
 +
 +
422
 +
00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:30,179
 +
about what a workstation costs expensive
 +
 +
423
 +
00:20:28,559 --> 00:20:31,499
 +
workstation costs compared to the
 +
 +
424
 +
00:20:30,179 --> 00:20:33,960
 +
millions of dollars from one of these
 +
 +
425
 +
00:20:31,499 --> 00:20:37,200
 +
things it is rather cheap but what
 +
 +
426
 +
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:38,610
 +
flashes of my mind then was the turning
 +
 +
427
 +
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:41,700
 +
point in the development of the book
 +
 +
428
 +
00:20:38,610 --> 00:20:44,669
 +
which was this third stage and that was
 +
 +
429
 +
00:20:41,700 --> 00:20:48,749
 +
done by a guy by the name of Aldous not
 +
 +
430
 +
00:20:44,669 --> 00:20:50,519
 +
Elvis PageMaker that could have been his
 +
 +
431
 +
00:20:48,749 --> 00:20:53,129
 +
name because he was a printer in Venice
 +
 +
432
 +
00:20:50,519 --> 00:20:58,019
 +
that's where the company got their name
 +
 +
433
 +
00:20:53,129 --> 00:20:59,929
 +
Aldus Manutius around 1495 decided books
 +
 +
434
 +
00:20:58,019 --> 00:21:02,580
 +
should not be like this
 +
 +
435
 +
00:20:59,929 --> 00:21:07,200
 +
so the Gutenberg galaxy I mean the
 +
 +
436
 +
00:21:02,580 --> 00:21:08,970
 +
Gutenberg Bible and manuscripts but he
 +
 +
437
 +
00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:13,470
 +
decided that book should be the size
 +
 +
438
 +
00:21:08,970 --> 00:21:16,350
 +
they are today you've ever wondered why
 +
 +
439
 +
00:21:13,470 --> 00:21:18,389
 +
books are the size they are today it
 +
 +
440
 +
00:21:16,350 --> 00:21:22,799
 +
could be any size it could be really
 +
 +
441
 +
00:21:18,389 --> 00:21:24,720
 +
small it could be big this size I'll
 +
 +
442
 +
00:21:22,799 --> 00:21:29,070
 +
tell you why because that is the size
 +
 +
443
 +
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:31,080
 +
that saddlebags were in Venice Aldous
 +
 +
444
 +
00:21:29,070 --> 00:21:33,049
 +
went out and measured saddlebags and
 +
 +
445
 +
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:35,399
 +
took the average saddlebag size and
 +
 +
446
 +
00:21:33,049 --> 00:21:39,389
 +
decided to print a library or she called
 +
 +
447
 +
00:21:35,399 --> 00:21:40,950
 +
the portable library in 1495 so that
 +
 +
448
 +
00:21:39,389 --> 00:21:43,889
 +
people could take them with now this is
 +
 +
449
 +
00:21:40,950 --> 00:21:45,840
 +
a profound idea because Elvis was the
 +
 +
450
 +
00:21:43,889 --> 00:21:48,720
 +
first person who really realized that
 +
 +
451
 +
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:52,559
 +
books were now something that could be
 +
 +
452
 +
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:54,149
 +
lost it was not a crime against humanity
 +
 +
453
 +
00:21:52,559 --> 00:21:58,940
 +
to lose a book because he could go buy
 +
 +
454
 +
00:21:54,149 --> 00:22:01,919
 +
another one okay so that happened around
 +
 +
455
 +
00:21:58,940 --> 00:22:05,179
 +
1495 and suddenly I suddenly realized
 +
 +
456
 +
00:22:01,919 --> 00:22:08,299
 +
that a computer should look like this
 +
 +
457
 +
00:22:05,179 --> 00:22:10,470
 +
should be something the size of a book
 +
 +
458
 +
00:22:08,299 --> 00:22:14,970
 +
should be something that you always have
 +
 +
459
 +
00:22:10,470 --> 00:22:18,450
 +
with you and I made that cardboard model
 +
 +
460
 +
00:22:14,970 --> 00:22:20,770
 +
in 1968 that's what a computer should
 +
 +
461
 +
00:22:18,450 --> 00:22:23,200
 +
look like now just to give you an idea
 +
 +
462
 +
00:22:20,770 --> 00:22:26,710
 +
to try and understand why the the
 +
 +
463
 +
00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:31,090
 +
situation we're in today here is a
 +
 +
464
 +
00:22:26,710 --> 00:22:36,370
 +
completely transitional one this is a
 +
 +
465
 +
00:22:31,090 --> 00:22:39,850
 +
much Stabler form than this one you have
 +
 +
466
 +
00:22:36,370 --> 00:22:44,710
 +
to realize that remember printing was
 +
 +
467
 +
00:22:39,850 --> 00:22:51,460
 +
invented around 1450 to 1450 for Aldous
 +
 +
468
 +
00:22:44,710 --> 00:22:52,660
 +
was 1495 wasn't until 1516 more than 60
 +
 +
469
 +
00:22:51,460 --> 00:22:54,700
 +
years after the printing press was
 +
 +
470
 +
00:22:52,660 --> 00:23:00,030
 +
invented that anybody thought to put
 +
 +
471
 +
00:22:54,700 --> 00:23:02,740
 +
page numbers on a book think about that
 +
 +
472
 +
00:23:00,030 --> 00:23:06,640
 +
how could they have meant notice Elvises
 +
 +
473
 +
00:23:02,740 --> 00:23:08,680
 +
Brooke here has no page numbers how
 +
 +
474
 +
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,940
 +
could they possibly not have done the
 +
 +
475
 +
00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:12,310
 +
reason was is that when you only have
 +
 +
476
 +
00:23:09,940 --> 00:23:14,200
 +
392 books in the world's largest library
 +
 +
477
 +
00:23:12,310 --> 00:23:18,370
 +
and it if you're really rich and you may
 +
 +
478
 +
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:20,080
 +
have at home five or ten books why have
 +
 +
479
 +
00:23:18,370 --> 00:23:21,760
 +
page numbers you know where everything
 +
 +
480
 +
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:25,240
 +
is books are a celebration of what you
 +
 +
481
 +
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:27,640
 +
already know so when we think about
 +
 +
482
 +
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:29,740
 +
computers today one of the things we
 +
 +
483
 +
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:32,560
 +
have to really understand is that we are
 +
 +
484
 +
00:23:29,740 --> 00:23:35,800
 +
in a transitional phase and that the use
 +
 +
485
 +
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:38,230
 +
of computers by humans is going to be
 +
 +
486
 +
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:40,300
 +
completely different than it is today
 +
 +
487
 +
00:23:38,230 --> 00:23:42,510
 +
just as the use today is completely
 +
 +
488
 +
00:23:40,300 --> 00:23:45,310
 +
different from what it was 20 years ago
 +
 +
489
 +
00:23:42,510 --> 00:23:47,860
 +
that's the importance of making sharp
 +
 +
490
 +
00:23:45,310 --> 00:23:51,670
 +
boundaries between these different ways
 +
 +
491
 +
00:23:47,860 --> 00:23:53,140
 +
of thinking about things now this all
 +
 +
492
 +
00:23:51,670 --> 00:23:57,310
 +
would have been fantasy and science
 +
 +
493
 +
00:23:53,140 --> 00:24:00,630
 +
fiction except for people like Gordon
 +
 +
494
 +
00:23:57,310 --> 00:24:06,730
 +
Moore Gordon Moore was a physicist in
 +
 +
495
 +
00:24:00,630 --> 00:24:11,110
 +
1965 he published the white part of this
 +
 +
496
 +
00:24:06,730 --> 00:24:12,670
 +
diagram which said you know from 1959
 +
 +
497
 +
00:24:11,110 --> 00:24:18,910
 +
whoops sorry
 +
 +
498
 +
00:24:12,670 --> 00:24:20,260
 +
from 1959 up to about 1965 things have
 +
 +
499
 +
00:24:18,910 --> 00:24:22,750
 +
been improving at about the rate of
 +
 +
500
 +
00:24:20,260 --> 00:24:25,840
 +
factor of two every year in integrated
 +
 +
501
 +
00:24:22,750 --> 00:24:27,460
 +
circuits he said I wonder if that can
 +
 +
502
 +
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:30,460
 +
continue so he started looking at the
 +
 +
503
 +
00:24:27,460 --> 00:24:32,060
 +
physics of integrated circuits that gave
 +
 +
504
 +
00:24:30,460 --> 00:24:34,220
 +
him this line
 +
 +
505
 +
00:24:32,060 --> 00:24:36,710
 +
a few years later he said this line is
 +
 +
506
 +
00:24:34,220 --> 00:24:38,900
 +
too ambitious I'll predict that it will
 +
 +
507
 +
00:24:36,710 --> 00:24:41,930
 +
grow by a factor of two every two years
 +
 +
508
 +
00:24:38,900 --> 00:24:45,560
 +
which gave him this line and just for
 +
 +
509
 +
00:24:41,930 --> 00:24:48,470
 +
your enjoyment here the purple line is
 +
 +
510
 +
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:50,210
 +
what actually happened right so it's
 +
 +
511
 +
00:24:48,470 --> 00:24:52,660
 +
grown slightly better it's grown about a
 +
 +
512
 +
00:24:50,210 --> 00:24:56,300
 +
factor of two every eighteen months
 +
 +
513
 +
00:24:52,660 --> 00:25:02,570
 +
since 1965 and Gordon Moore's prediction
 +
 +
514
 +
00:24:56,300 --> 00:25:04,520
 +
was a 30-year prediction now in order to
 +
 +
515
 +
00:25:02,570 --> 00:25:06,860
 +
make this prediction he had to back away
 +
 +
516
 +
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:11,860
 +
he had to do remember my diagram he had
 +
 +
517
 +
00:25:06,860 --> 00:25:14,090
 +
to go away from B because the silicon
 +
 +
518
 +
00:25:11,860 --> 00:25:18,050
 +
that people were using was not a
 +
 +
519
 +
00:25:14,090 --> 00:25:19,400
 +
predictable silicon it was not easy to
 +
 +
520
 +
00:25:18,050 --> 00:25:20,930
 +
make predictions about it so he picked a
 +
 +
521
 +
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:23,600
 +
simpler way of doing things which is
 +
 +
522
 +
00:25:20,930 --> 00:25:25,910
 +
thought to be too slow and made his
 +
 +
523
 +
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:27,980
 +
predictions based on that that slow
 +
 +
524
 +
00:25:25,910 --> 00:25:36,920
 +
silicon happens to be a silicon we used
 +
 +
525
 +
00:25:27,980 --> 00:25:39,920
 +
today MOS silicon this single chart if
 +
 +
526
 +
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:42,860
 +
well understood explains why IBM and Dec
 +
 +
527
 +
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:44,750
 +
are in such trouble today explains why
 +
 +
528
 +
00:25:42,860 --> 00:25:47,360
 +
we have millions and millions of
 +
 +
529
 +
00:25:44,750 --> 00:25:49,160
 +
personal computers today it explains why
 +
 +
530
 +
00:25:47,360 --> 00:25:51,500
 +
people were not able to predict the
 +
 +
531
 +
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:53,180
 +
future in a reasonable way because this
 +
 +
532
 +
00:25:51,500 --> 00:25:56,920
 +
is an exponential curve this is talking
 +
 +
533
 +
00:25:53,180 --> 00:26:01,550
 +
about a factor of 10 million change in
 +
 +
534
 +
00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:06,020
 +
20 years so almost everything that we're
 +
 +
535
 +
00:26:01,550 --> 00:26:07,490
 +
doing today is based on this now the
 +
 +
536
 +
00:26:06,020 --> 00:26:10,760
 +
thing is you have to realize about the
 +
 +
537
 +
00:26:07,490 --> 00:26:13,840
 +
human nervous system is that factors of
 +
 +
538
 +
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:17,260
 +
10 and factors of a hundred change our
 +
 +
539
 +
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:20,780
 +
qualitative to us they may look on paper
 +
 +
540
 +
00:26:17,260 --> 00:26:23,900
 +
quantitative but a factor of 10 change
 +
 +
541
 +
00:26:20,780 --> 00:26:26,180
 +
in speed is qualitative to us what
 +
 +
542
 +
00:26:23,900 --> 00:26:29,360
 +
happened to IBM because they were aware
 +
 +
543
 +
00:26:26,180 --> 00:26:32,210
 +
of this is they couldn't believe that
 +
 +
544
 +
00:26:29,360 --> 00:26:33,890
 +
this meant anything other than they
 +
 +
545
 +
00:26:32,210 --> 00:26:36,350
 +
would be able to make cheaper mainframes
 +
 +
546
 +
00:26:33,890 --> 00:26:39,620
 +
and make more profit on them they could
 +
 +
547
 +
00:26:36,350 --> 00:26:41,660
 +
not imagine the actual implications of
 +
 +
548
 +
00:26:39,620 --> 00:26:44,150
 +
being able to put an entire computer on
 +
 +
549
 +
00:26:41,660 --> 00:26:45,470
 +
a chip and that there would have to be
 +
 +
550
 +
00:26:44,150 --> 00:26:49,940
 +
millions of them
 +
 +
551
 +
00:26:45,470 --> 00:26:51,470
 +
so they lost they missed so these three
 +
 +
552
 +
00:26:49,940 --> 00:26:53,990
 +
ways of looking at things
 +
 +
553
 +
00:26:51,470 --> 00:26:55,850
 +
I gave names to I called the mainframe
 +
 +
554
 +
00:26:53,990 --> 00:26:58,159
 +
thing institutional computing I called
 +
 +
555
 +
00:26:55,850 --> 00:27:01,460
 +
the desktop machine personal computing
 +
 +
556
 +
00:26:58,159 --> 00:27:06,740
 +
and I called this handheld Aldus type
 +
 +
557
 +
00:27:01,460 --> 00:27:09,470
 +
computer an intimate computer and in the
 +
 +
558
 +
00:27:06,740 --> 00:27:12,679
 +
late 60s I sat down and tried to write
 +
 +
559
 +
00:27:09,470 --> 00:27:15,649
 +
down some of the conclusions that a
 +
 +
560
 +
00:27:12,679 --> 00:27:18,049
 +
person would reach for in each of these
 +
 +
561
 +
00:27:15,649 --> 00:27:19,909
 +
belief structures now another word
 +
 +
562
 +
00:27:18,049 --> 00:27:25,580
 +
that's been devalued almost beyond
 +
 +
563
 +
00:27:19,909 --> 00:27:28,220
 +
repair is paradigm right paradigm is a
 +
 +
564
 +
00:27:25,580 --> 00:27:30,230
 +
belief structure so you could just as
 +
 +
565
 +
00:27:28,220 --> 00:27:31,929
 +
easily say this is the institutional
 +
 +
566
 +
00:27:30,230 --> 00:27:35,830
 +
paradigm the personal computing paradigm
 +
 +
567
 +
00:27:31,929 --> 00:27:39,919
 +
or the intimate paradigm doesn't matter
 +
 +
568
 +
00:27:35,830 --> 00:27:41,600
 +
scientists like paradigms because it is
 +
 +
569
 +
00:27:39,919 --> 00:27:44,330
 +
so hard to think about things that
 +
 +
570
 +
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:46,519
 +
aren't already around so we play all
 +
 +
571
 +
00:27:44,330 --> 00:27:47,779
 +
kinds of tricks and mind games and one
 +
 +
572
 +
00:27:46,519 --> 00:27:50,029
 +
of the ones that we do is to drive
 +
 +
573
 +
00:27:47,779 --> 00:27:52,639
 +
artificial boundaries between things to
 +
 +
574
 +
00:27:50,029 --> 00:27:55,100
 +
see if we can find differentiation so
 +
 +
575
 +
00:27:52,639 --> 00:27:56,360
 +
this is one of those things saying these
 +
 +
576
 +
00:27:55,100 --> 00:27:57,590
 +
are three different ways of thinking
 +
 +
577
 +
00:27:56,360 --> 00:28:03,340
 +
about the world and what are the
 +
 +
578
 +
00:27:57,590 --> 00:28:06,340
 +
implications whoops sorry about that
 +
 +
579
 +
00:28:03,340 --> 00:28:06,340
 +
the
 +
 +
580
 +
00:28:08,559 --> 00:28:12,919
 +
now what types one of the ways of
 +
 +
581
 +
00:28:11,270 --> 00:28:15,950
 +
thinking about it is what types of data
 +
 +
582
 +
00:28:12,919 --> 00:28:18,200
 +
do you use institutional uses letters
 +
 +
583
 +
00:28:15,950 --> 00:28:20,000
 +
and numbers I discovered just a few
 +
 +
584
 +
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:21,940
 +
years ago that my Dennis still had those
 +
 +
585
 +
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:26,090
 +
green and white print out sheets
 +
 +
586
 +
00:28:21,940 --> 00:28:27,710
 +
needless to say I changed Dennis so I
 +
 +
587
 +
00:28:26,090 --> 00:28:33,770
 +
was wondering what other old technology
 +
 +
588
 +
00:28:27,710 --> 00:28:35,150
 +
he might be using there's law by the way
 +
 +
589
 +
00:28:33,770 --> 00:28:39,679
 +
does anybody know who toward more is
 +
 +
590
 +
00:28:35,150 --> 00:28:40,660
 +
here who is Gordon Moore who did Moore's
 +
 +
591
 +
00:28:39,679 --> 00:28:45,799
 +
law
 +
 +
592
 +
00:28:40,660 --> 00:28:49,040
 +
yeah so Moore got a lot of criticism for
 +
 +
593
 +
00:28:45,799 --> 00:28:50,360
 +
that curve and so he decided to do this
 +
 +
594
 +
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,400
 +
thing well the best way to predict the
 +
 +
595
 +
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:54,620
 +
future is to invent it so he said let's
 +
 +
596
 +
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:56,780
 +
found a company to work on MOS silicon
 +
 +
597
 +
00:28:54,620 --> 00:28:59,390
 +
happened to be Intel he's one of the
 +
 +
598
 +
00:28:56,780 --> 00:29:01,090
 +
richest guys in California right now
 +
 +
599
 +
00:28:59,390 --> 00:29:04,400
 +
he's worth more than a billion dollars
 +
 +
600
 +
00:29:01,090 --> 00:29:05,870
 +
from that because of course see when the
 +
 +
601
 +
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:06,980
 +
astronauts got out in space and they
 +
 +
602
 +
00:29:05,870 --> 00:29:09,200
 +
look back at the earth you know what
 +
 +
603
 +
00:29:06,980 --> 00:29:11,720
 +
they saw they saw something that looked
 +
 +
604
 +
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:14,900
 +
just like a globe that had been done in
 +
 +
605
 +
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:16,030
 +
the 19th century that's what science is
 +
 +
606
 +
00:29:14,900 --> 00:29:20,299
 +
all about
 +
 +
607
 +
00:29:16,030 --> 00:29:21,740
 +
no surprises you get out there and if
 +
 +
608
 +
00:29:20,299 --> 00:29:25,400
 +
you've done your work properly you
 +
 +
609
 +
00:29:21,740 --> 00:29:27,470
 +
should see what you expect to see so
 +
 +
610
 +
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:30,380
 +
Gordon Moore was right and he was able
 +
 +
611
 +
00:29:27,470 --> 00:29:32,290
 +
to get profit from it and if you think
 +
 +
612
 +
00:29:30,380 --> 00:29:34,940
 +
about the implications of Moore's law
 +
 +
613
 +
00:29:32,290 --> 00:29:37,309
 +
you're going to start using bitmap
 +
 +
614
 +
00:29:34,940 --> 00:29:38,510
 +
screens it's one of the first things we
 +
 +
615
 +
00:29:37,309 --> 00:29:41,690
 +
invented at Xerox PARC
 +
 +
616
 +
00:29:38,510 --> 00:29:44,390
 +
because now we could have bits bits
 +
 +
617
 +
00:29:41,690 --> 00:29:47,600
 +
weren't just for computation anymore and
 +
 +
618
 +
00:29:44,390 --> 00:29:51,530
 +
then later on all other media was going
 +
 +
619
 +
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:53,240
 +
to have to come along and one of the
 +
 +
620
 +
00:29:51,530 --> 00:29:56,660
 +
implications of this is that when you
 +
 +
621
 +
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:59,870
 +
get into this third stage you're not
 +
 +
622
 +
00:29:56,660 --> 00:30:01,100
 +
going to print printing will go away now
 +
 +
623
 +
00:29:59,870 --> 00:30:03,679
 +
people have been saying that for years
 +
 +
624
 +
00:30:01,100 --> 00:30:07,820
 +
and we have more paper than yes yes I
 +
 +
625
 +
00:30:03,679 --> 00:30:10,910
 +
know but think of it this way when your
 +
 +
626
 +
00:30:07,820 --> 00:30:12,530
 +
information is related in such a way
 +
 +
627
 +
00:30:10,910 --> 00:30:16,640
 +
that all important things are together
 +
 +
628
 +
00:30:12,530 --> 00:30:18,290
 +
you're not going to print it out how
 +
 +
629
 +
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:20,230
 +
many people here do forecasting by
 +
 +
630
 +
00:30:18,290 --> 00:30:22,820
 +
spreadsheets
 +
 +
631
 +
00:30:20,230 --> 00:30:27,010
 +
okay who does anybody print out the
 +
 +
632
 +
00:30:22,820 --> 00:30:29,750
 +
spreadsheet template no you know why
 +
 +
633
 +
00:30:27,010 --> 00:30:30,890
 +
because what ones you're going to print
 +
 +
634
 +
00:30:29,750 --> 00:30:34,100
 +
out you're going to print out a hundred
 +
 +
635
 +
00:30:30,890 --> 00:30:35,510
 +
of them every one of those things you've
 +
 +
636
 +
00:30:34,100 --> 00:30:38,690
 +
done you change a number and the whole
 +
 +
637
 +
00:30:35,510 --> 00:30:41,410
 +
spreadsheet changes so the multi is to
 +
 +
638
 +
00:30:38,690 --> 00:30:45,170
 +
think about in multimedia are not
 +
 +
639
 +
00:30:41,410 --> 00:30:48,790
 +
combining voice and images the multi is
 +
 +
640
 +
00:30:45,170 --> 00:30:52,730
 +
to think about our multi-dimensional and
 +
 +
641
 +
00:30:48,790 --> 00:30:54,500
 +
multi process so as we go more and more
 +
 +
642
 +
00:30:52,730 --> 00:30:59,510
 +
towards multiply multi dimensional
 +
 +
643
 +
00:30:54,500 --> 00:31:04,310
 +
representations and simulations printing
 +
 +
644
 +
00:30:59,510 --> 00:31:07,970
 +
will kill both of those things and what
 +
 +
645
 +
00:31:04,310 --> 00:31:10,280
 +
we have now is synthetic paper that
 +
 +
646
 +
00:31:07,970 --> 00:31:11,720
 +
comes along just in the nick of time to
 +
 +
647
 +
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:14,120
 +
save us we can now have all of our
 +
 +
648
 +
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:17,510
 +
dynamic information structures with us
 +
 +
649
 +
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:22,460
 +
at all times so printing is finally
 +
 +
650
 +
00:31:17,510 --> 00:31:25,430
 +
going to go away by my friend Nicolas
 +
 +
651
 +
00:31:22,460 --> 00:31:27,320
 +
Monte thought of it this way thought of
 +
 +
652
 +
00:31:25,430 --> 00:31:30,620
 +
the worlds of publishing entertainment
 +
 +
653
 +
00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:32,540
 +
and computing imploding on each other
 +
 +
654
 +
00:31:30,620 --> 00:31:33,650
 +
because now every single one of them
 +
 +
655
 +
00:31:32,540 --> 00:31:35,030
 +
could have everything that they do
 +
 +
656
 +
00:31:33,650 --> 00:31:36,950
 +
represent it digitally
 +
 +
657
 +
00:31:35,030 --> 00:31:38,960
 +
when you have everything represented in
 +
 +
658
 +
00:31:36,950 --> 00:31:42,230
 +
the same form you basically have the
 +
 +
659
 +
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:45,950
 +
same business they use the same
 +
 +
660
 +
00:31:42,230 --> 00:31:49,310
 +
transmission everybody who has access to
 +
 +
661
 +
00:31:45,950 --> 00:31:52,030
 +
the Internet is a publisher you can
 +
 +
662
 +
00:31:49,310 --> 00:31:55,160
 +
publish just as well as mcgraw-hill can
 +
 +
663
 +
00:31:52,030 --> 00:31:56,870
 +
in fact your if you have access to the
 +
 +
664
 +
00:31:55,160 --> 00:32:00,770
 +
Internet you are actually a miniature
 +
 +
665
 +
00:31:56,870 --> 00:32:02,720
 +
FCC I don't know whether you know it but
 +
 +
666
 +
00:32:00,770 --> 00:32:05,360
 +
people send television programs back and
 +
 +
667
 +
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:08,030
 +
forth on the on the internet and radio
 +
 +
668
 +
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:12,140
 +
there's a constant internet radio
 +
 +
669
 +
00:32:08,030 --> 00:32:14,360
 +
between scientists and stuff and there
 +
 +
670
 +
00:32:12,140 --> 00:32:17,480
 +
are no channels were requested from the
 +
 +
671
 +
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:19,220
 +
FCC because the internet does not care
 +
 +
672
 +
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:21,830
 +
it's just sending bits back and forth
 +
 +
673
 +
00:32:19,220 --> 00:32:24,950
 +
and the bits can be anything so this is
 +
 +
674
 +
00:32:21,830 --> 00:32:27,740
 +
one again that the publishers in the
 +
 +
675
 +
00:32:24,950 --> 00:32:30,050
 +
entertainment industry only discovered a
 +
 +
676
 +
00:32:27,740 --> 00:32:32,320
 +
couple of years ago and yet it's been
 +
 +
677
 +
00:32:30,050 --> 00:32:35,139
 +
true once more
 +
 +
678
 +
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:36,759
 +
Wrote is liya this is why this stuff is
 +
 +
679
 +
00:32:35,139 --> 00:32:38,740
 +
scary to people because it seems like
 +
 +
680
 +
00:32:36,759 --> 00:32:40,870
 +
all this stuff is suddenly happening
 +
 +
681
 +
00:32:38,740 --> 00:32:42,909
 +
the reason it's suddenly happening is
 +
 +
682
 +
00:32:40,870 --> 00:32:45,539
 +
people will not believe a disaster until
 +
 +
683
 +
00:32:42,909 --> 00:32:49,870
 +
it's actually in front of their eyes
 +
 +
684
 +
00:32:45,539 --> 00:32:51,580
 +
the whole reason we have eyes is so we
 +
 +
685
 +
00:32:49,870 --> 00:32:54,340
 +
don't have to jump off the cliff to see
 +
 +
686
 +
00:32:51,580 --> 00:32:57,159
 +
if it's dangerous right
 +
 +
687
 +
00:32:54,340 --> 00:32:58,480
 +
we have long distance sensors and we
 +
 +
688
 +
00:32:57,159 --> 00:33:00,279
 +
need the equivalent of long distance
 +
 +
689
 +
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:04,570
 +
sensors when we're dealing with the
 +
 +
690
 +
00:33:00,279 --> 00:33:10,389
 +
future user interface probably the
 +
 +
691
 +
00:33:04,570 --> 00:33:12,490
 +
biggest change when you're over here you
 +
 +
692
 +
00:33:10,389 --> 00:33:14,200
 +
have a few thousand users perhaps using
 +
 +
693
 +
00:33:12,490 --> 00:33:16,240
 +
an airlines reservation system or a
 +
 +
694
 +
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:20,230
 +
banking system you can train a few
 +
 +
695
 +
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:23,860
 +
thousand people there's a factor of a
 +
 +
696
 +
00:33:20,230 --> 00:33:27,990
 +
thousand between these two panels so
 +
 +
697
 +
00:33:23,860 --> 00:33:30,250
 +
millions can't train millions of people
 +
 +
698
 +
00:33:27,990 --> 00:33:32,889
 +
over here there's another factor of a
 +
 +
699
 +
00:33:30,250 --> 00:33:34,960
 +
thousand because this intimate computer
 +
 +
700
 +
00:33:32,889 --> 00:33:37,629
 +
is a lot like a phone in fact it will
 +
 +
701
 +
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:40,570
 +
have a phone in it so these are billions
 +
 +
702
 +
00:33:37,629 --> 00:33:42,639
 +
of people millions of people it put an
 +
 +
703
 +
00:33:40,570 --> 00:33:46,960
 +
enormous pressure on trying to
 +
 +
704
 +
00:33:42,639 --> 00:33:49,600
 +
understand what it would be like to
 +
 +
705
 +
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:51,309
 +
actually get computers to do things and
 +
 +
706
 +
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:53,470
 +
we realized that the big transition
 +
 +
707
 +
00:33:51,309 --> 00:33:56,110
 +
would have to go from being a command
 +
 +
708
 +
00:33:53,470 --> 00:33:57,549
 +
environment like a control panel of a
 +
 +
709
 +
00:33:56,110 --> 00:34:01,389
 +
nuclear reactor that's sort of what a
 +
 +
710
 +
00:33:57,549 --> 00:34:04,360
 +
3270 terminal is like to a learning
 +
 +
711
 +
00:34:01,389 --> 00:34:06,070
 +
environment that's what forced us to
 +
 +
712
 +
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:09,909
 +
invent what is now called the the
 +
 +
713
 +
00:34:06,070 --> 00:34:14,980
 +
Macintosh style interface now what
 +
 +
714
 +
00:34:09,909 --> 00:34:17,079
 +
happens in the future here is something
 +
 +
715
 +
00:34:14,980 --> 00:34:20,230
 +
even more cataclysmic because this third
 +
 +
716
 +
00:34:17,079 --> 00:34:23,619
 +
panel is energized by pervasive
 +
 +
717
 +
00:34:20,230 --> 00:34:27,010
 +
networking think of the driving forces
 +
 +
718
 +
00:34:23,619 --> 00:34:29,950
 +
driving force for mainframe computers
 +
 +
719
 +
00:34:27,010 --> 00:34:31,089
 +
was actually business IBM didn't want to
 +
 +
720
 +
00:34:29,950 --> 00:34:35,109
 +
build them they wanted to stay in the
 +
 +
721
 +
00:34:31,089 --> 00:34:37,149
 +
punch card business was it was American
 +
 +
722
 +
00:34:35,109 --> 00:34:40,599
 +
business that forced IBM to become a big
 +
 +
723
 +
00:34:37,149 --> 00:34:42,490
 +
company driving force for the second
 +
 +
724
 +
00:34:40,599 --> 00:34:44,109
 +
frame was integrated circuits as we've
 +
 +
725
 +
00:34:42,490 --> 00:34:45,369
 +
been talking about in the driving force
 +
 +
726
 +
00:34:44,109 --> 00:34:47,230
 +
for this third
 +
 +
727
 +
00:34:45,369 --> 00:34:50,710
 +
frame is pervasive networking which is
 +
 +
728
 +
00:34:47,230 --> 00:34:52,329
 +
happening to us now this transition is
 +
 +
729
 +
00:34:50,710 --> 00:34:55,690
 +
going to be complete pretty much by the
 +
 +
730
 +
00:34:52,329 --> 00:34:57,160
 +
year 2000 billions of people are going
 +
 +
731
 +
00:34:55,690 --> 00:35:02,079
 +
to have to be there and so one way of
 +
 +
732
 +
00:34:57,160 --> 00:35:06,279
 +
thinking about this is here you have to
 +
 +
733
 +
00:35:02,079 --> 00:35:08,259
 +
train the user in this one the user
 +
 +
734
 +
00:35:06,279 --> 00:35:10,869
 +
interface teaches the user that's its
 +
 +
735
 +
00:35:08,259 --> 00:35:13,690
 +
main job and in this one the user
 +
 +
736
 +
00:35:10,869 --> 00:35:15,339
 +
interface learns from the user in other
 +
 +
737
 +
00:35:13,690 --> 00:35:17,529
 +
words it actively is trying to
 +
 +
738
 +
00:35:15,339 --> 00:35:21,519
 +
understand the user and what it's what
 +
 +
739
 +
00:35:17,529 --> 00:35:23,470
 +
it's trying to do so one way of thinking
 +
 +
740
 +
00:35:21,519 --> 00:35:25,539
 +
about this is the two ways that we've
 +
 +
741
 +
00:35:23,470 --> 00:35:29,170
 +
had of amplifying our reach have been
 +
 +
742
 +
00:35:25,539 --> 00:35:31,900
 +
tools Macintosh style interface is a
 +
 +
743
 +
00:35:29,170 --> 00:35:34,599
 +
tool based interface it's designed to
 +
 +
744
 +
00:35:31,900 --> 00:35:37,240
 +
work with hand and eye and the other way
 +
 +
745
 +
00:35:34,599 --> 00:35:41,319
 +
we're used to amplifying our reach is
 +
 +
746
 +
00:35:37,240 --> 00:35:44,410
 +
through agents agents are creatures that
 +
 +
747
 +
00:35:41,319 --> 00:35:47,980
 +
can take on our goal structure and carry
 +
 +
748
 +
00:35:44,410 --> 00:35:49,630
 +
out goals in our behalf and what's even
 +
 +
749
 +
00:35:47,980 --> 00:35:53,430
 +
stronger about agencies they can
 +
 +
750
 +
00:35:49,630 --> 00:35:56,980
 +
transmit your goals to other agents
 +
 +
751
 +
00:35:53,430 --> 00:35:59,200
 +
imagine how powerful that is some person
 +
 +
752
 +
00:35:56,980 --> 00:36:01,690
 +
has a few ideas in the middle-east 2000
 +
 +
753
 +
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:04,660
 +
years ago gets 12 agents to be
 +
 +
754
 +
00:36:01,690 --> 00:36:08,680
 +
interested in it and half the half the
 +
 +
755
 +
00:36:04,660 --> 00:36:12,460
 +
earth is now interested in those same
 +
 +
756
 +
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:15,999
 +
ideas that's the power of agents over
 +
 +
757
 +
00:36:12,460 --> 00:36:17,200
 +
tools so one of the big transitions
 +
 +
758
 +
00:36:15,999 --> 00:36:20,230
 +
that's going to happen in the next five
 +
 +
759
 +
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:21,989
 +
years will be the transition from tool
 +
 +
760
 +
00:36:20,230 --> 00:36:28,869
 +
based interfaces which we've just
 +
 +
761
 +
00:36:21,989 --> 00:36:31,599
 +
transitioned into to this softer more
 +
 +
762
 +
00:36:28,869 --> 00:36:34,289
 +
dynamic way of doing things that that
 +
 +
763
 +
00:36:31,599 --> 00:36:37,660
 +
networks are going to force us into
 +
 +
764
 +
00:36:34,289 --> 00:36:43,180
 +
integration of information it's usually
 +
 +
765
 +
00:36:37,660 --> 00:36:45,730
 +
done painfully with files using
 +
 +
766
 +
00:36:43,180 --> 00:36:48,549
 +
relational databases it's it's
 +
 +
767
 +
00:36:45,730 --> 00:36:53,079
 +
incredible to me that after more than 20
 +
 +
768
 +
00:36:48,549 --> 00:36:55,239
 +
years almost 25 years now the less than
 +
 +
769
 +
00:36:53,079 --> 00:36:57,910
 +
half of the databases in America's
 +
 +
770
 +
00:36:55,239 --> 00:37:01,049
 +
fortune 500 companies are relational
 +
 +
771
 +
00:36:57,910 --> 00:37:03,910
 +
I'm sure everybody is aware of that it's
 +
 +
772
 +
00:37:01,049 --> 00:37:08,770
 +
unbelievable most of them are still flat
 +
 +
773
 +
00:37:03,910 --> 00:37:11,319
 +
files and cut and paste in the Macintosh
 +
 +
774
 +
00:37:08,770 --> 00:37:12,789
 +
and then to active components and if we
 +
 +
775
 +
00:37:11,319 --> 00:37:14,890
 +
have time we can talk a little bit more
 +
 +
776
 +
00:37:12,789 --> 00:37:18,400
 +
about that as you go to more and more
 +
 +
777
 +
00:37:14,890 --> 00:37:19,930
 +
complex systems the parts of things have
 +
 +
778
 +
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:24,240
 +
to take more and more of the initiative
 +
 +
779
 +
00:37:19,930 --> 00:37:26,500
 +
for the linking what kind of software
 +
 +
780
 +
00:37:24,240 --> 00:37:28,869
 +
airline reservation system in
 +
 +
781
 +
00:37:26,500 --> 00:37:30,640
 +
institutional generic tool like a
 +
 +
782
 +
00:37:28,869 --> 00:37:33,369
 +
spreadsheet or a word processor or
 +
 +
783
 +
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:35,079
 +
desktop publishing system because you
 +
 +
784
 +
00:37:33,369 --> 00:37:36,970
 +
have millions of people buying them the
 +
 +
785
 +
00:37:35,079 --> 00:37:40,049
 +
users have to complete the application
 +
 +
786
 +
00:37:36,970 --> 00:37:45,539
 +
in order to use it and in the future
 +
 +
787
 +
00:37:40,049 --> 00:37:48,400
 +
most of the applications in business
 +
 +
788
 +
00:37:45,539 --> 00:37:50,890
 +
will be done by the end users now it
 +
 +
789
 +
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:52,480
 +
happens that today in the fortune 500
 +
 +
790
 +
00:37:50,890 --> 00:37:56,020
 +
companies more than half of the
 +
 +
791
 +
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:58,240
 +
applications that are used in Fortune
 +
 +
792
 +
00:37:56,020 --> 00:38:00,690
 +
500 companies today are done by the end
 +
 +
793
 +
00:37:58,240 --> 00:38:04,089
 +
users not by the IT organization
 +
 +
794
 +
00:38:00,690 --> 00:38:07,329
 +
spreadsheets are the big culprit IT
 +
 +
795
 +
00:38:04,089 --> 00:38:09,400
 +
organizations hate them because they are
 +
 +
796
 +
00:38:07,329 --> 00:38:12,309
 +
and personal computers because they have
 +
 +
797
 +
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:14,710
 +
to give up control but in fact there is
 +
 +
798
 +
00:38:12,309 --> 00:38:17,049
 +
a way of leveraging the productivity of
 +
 +
799
 +
00:38:14,710 --> 00:38:21,490
 +
users and we'll talk about that a little
 +
 +
800
 +
00:38:17,049 --> 00:38:23,410
 +
bit later each of these 3 belief systems
 +
 +
801
 +
00:38:21,490 --> 00:38:26,920
 +
has a different way of wanting to be
 +
 +
802
 +
00:38:23,410 --> 00:38:30,039
 +
programmed data structures and
 +
 +
803
 +
00:38:26,920 --> 00:38:30,730
 +
procedures are an extremely weak way of
 +
 +
804
 +
00:38:30,039 --> 00:38:33,910
 +
doing things
 +
 +
805
 +
00:38:30,730 --> 00:38:35,470
 +
this is COBOL and see one of the
 +
 +
806
 +
00:38:33,910 --> 00:38:37,569
 +
problems is if you send a data structure
 +
 +
807
 +
00:38:35,470 --> 00:38:39,760
 +
a thousand miles between point a and
 +
 +
808
 +
00:38:37,569 --> 00:38:42,670
 +
point B you pretty much have to matter
 +
 +
809
 +
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:46,059
 +
transmit a programmer along with it in
 +
 +
810
 +
00:38:42,670 --> 00:38:47,260
 +
order for people to use it the reason is
 +
 +
811
 +
00:38:46,059 --> 00:38:52,029
 +
is that the data structures themselves
 +
 +
812
 +
00:38:47,260 --> 00:38:54,690
 +
are dumb dead things that don't know how
 +
 +
813
 +
00:38:52,029 --> 00:38:57,279
 +
they should be used so objects
 +
 +
814
 +
00:38:54,690 --> 00:38:59,109
 +
particularly at Xerox PARC were invented
 +
 +
815
 +
00:38:57,279 --> 00:39:01,359
 +
so that when you transmit something from
 +
 +
816
 +
00:38:59,109 --> 00:39:03,880
 +
A to B you're also transmitting the
 +
 +
817
 +
00:39:01,359 --> 00:39:06,010
 +
knowledge of how to have how to use it
 +
 +
818
 +
00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:08,430
 +
so the amount of code you have to write
 +
 +
819
 +
00:39:06,010 --> 00:39:10,569
 +
at the other end is very minimal and
 +
 +
820
 +
00:39:08,430 --> 00:39:11,440
 +
networks are going to force a completely
 +
 +
821
 +
00:39:10,569 --> 00:39:12,940
 +
different kind of
 +
 +
822
 +
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:16,650
 +
jamming paradigm that we call agent
 +
 +
823
 +
00:39:12,940 --> 00:39:22,900
 +
oriented just to give you an idea of
 +
 +
824
 +
00:39:16,650 --> 00:39:25,800
 +
this is about maybe 50 years old to go
 +
 +
825
 +
00:39:22,900 --> 00:39:31,720
 +
back to Von Neumanns original design
 +
 +
826
 +
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:37,540
 +
this is about 25 plus years old I did my
 +
 +
827
 +
00:39:31,720 --> 00:39:39,790
 +
first language in 67 this one is more
 +
 +
828
 +
00:39:37,540 --> 00:39:41,980
 +
than ten years old they've never heard
 +
 +
829
 +
00:39:39,790 --> 00:39:44,619
 +
of this stuff but in fact people have
 +
 +
830
 +
00:39:41,980 --> 00:39:46,990
 +
been working away in research labs
 +
 +
831
 +
00:39:44,619 --> 00:39:49,180
 +
because looking ahead we could see that
 +
 +
832
 +
00:39:46,990 --> 00:39:50,980
 +
pervasive network was coming and we
 +
 +
833
 +
00:39:49,180 --> 00:39:52,750
 +
realized that classical objects could
 +
 +
834
 +
00:39:50,980 --> 00:39:55,420
 +
not be transmitted willy-nilly around
 +
 +
835
 +
00:39:52,750 --> 00:39:57,819
 +
the world and be able to be components
 +
 +
836
 +
00:39:55,420 --> 00:39:59,530
 +
of things without a lot of work that
 +
 +
837
 +
00:39:57,819 --> 00:40:01,780
 +
calls for a new way of thinking about
 +
 +
838
 +
00:39:59,530 --> 00:40:05,609
 +
programming and this agent oriented way
 +
 +
839
 +
00:40:01,780 --> 00:40:05,609
 +
is the way we think it will work
 +
 +
840
 +
00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:09,730
 +
analogy to architectures the Greeks were
 +
 +
841
 +
00:40:08,109 --> 00:40:14,740
 +
really smart but they never invented the
 +
 +
842
 +
00:40:09,730 --> 00:40:18,609
 +
arch so they were constrained to build
 +
 +
843
 +
00:40:14,740 --> 00:40:19,750
 +
rather small but beautiful temples if
 +
 +
844
 +
00:40:18,609 --> 00:40:21,460
 +
you want to build something bigger you
 +
 +
845
 +
00:40:19,750 --> 00:40:24,490
 +
have to have a different architectural
 +
 +
846
 +
00:40:21,460 --> 00:40:26,440
 +
principle the Gothic arch allowed
 +
 +
847
 +
00:40:24,490 --> 00:40:28,770
 +
cathedrals to be built that were 10
 +
 +
848
 +
00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:31,030
 +
times the size of the Greek temples
 +
 +
849
 +
00:40:28,770 --> 00:40:33,940
 +
interestingly enough there's only
 +
 +
850
 +
00:40:31,030 --> 00:40:35,140
 +
slightly more material in Chartres
 +
 +
851
 +
00:40:33,940 --> 00:40:36,359
 +
Cathedral than there was in the
 +
 +
852
 +
00:40:35,140 --> 00:40:38,560
 +
Parthenon
 +
 +
853
 +
00:40:36,359 --> 00:40:42,760
 +
all right because Gothic cathedrals are
 +
 +
854
 +
00:40:38,560 --> 00:40:44,770
 +
mostly air and windows and then geodesic
 +
 +
855
 +
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:47,619
 +
domes using a completely different
 +
 +
856
 +
00:40:44,770 --> 00:40:49,180
 +
theory can you can make a geodesic dome
 +
 +
857
 +
00:40:47,619 --> 00:40:51,490
 +
that will go over all of the Gothic
 +
 +
858
 +
00:40:49,180 --> 00:40:53,589
 +
cathedrals made on earth using a
 +
 +
859
 +
00:40:51,490 --> 00:40:55,329
 +
different architecture the way we
 +
 +
860
 +
00:40:53,589 --> 00:40:58,390
 +
improve ourselves is by changing
 +
 +
861
 +
00:40:55,329 --> 00:41:02,980
 +
architectures we have the same IQ we had
 +
 +
862
 +
00:40:58,390 --> 00:41:07,000
 +
ten thousand years ago imagine having an
 +
 +
863
 +
00:41:02,980 --> 00:41:10,070
 +
IQ of 250 in the year 10,000 BC what
 +
 +
864
 +
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:13,880
 +
could you do not a lot
 +
 +
865
 +
00:41:10,070 --> 00:41:17,060
 +
all right Leonardo probably had an IQ of
 +
 +
866
 +
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:19,310
 +
250 he did a lot of drawings but he
 +
 +
867
 +
00:41:17,060 --> 00:41:21,530
 +
could hardly build anything because he
 +
 +
868
 +
00:41:19,310 --> 00:41:23,810
 +
wasn't in a place where he could
 +
 +
869
 +
00:41:21,530 --> 00:41:26,360
 +
leverage his IQ you leverage IQ with
 +
 +
870
 +
00:41:23,810 --> 00:41:27,680
 +
knowledge and architectures these are
 +
 +
871
 +
00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:29,870
 +
the thing most important things the
 +
 +
872
 +
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:32,510
 +
human race comes up with our different
 +
 +
873
 +
00:41:29,870 --> 00:41:34,310
 +
ways of thinking about things that allow
 +
 +
874
 +
00:41:32,510 --> 00:41:38,120
 +
us to appear much smarter than we did
 +
 +
875
 +
00:41:34,310 --> 00:41:39,650
 +
years ago so here's a my favorite
 +
 +
876
 +
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:43,520
 +
metaphor for the future Nicholas
 +
 +
877
 +
00:41:39,650 --> 00:41:45,040
 +
Negroponte II said once we'll know it's
 +
 +
878
 +
00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:47,870
 +
the future when my left cufflink
 +
 +
879
 +
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:53,090
 +
communicates with my right cuff link via
 +
 +
880
 +
00:41:47,870 --> 00:41:56,840
 +
satellite this sort of sums it all up
 +
 +
881
 +
00:41:53,090 --> 00:42:02,060
 +
now let me ask you do you think Nicholas
 +
 +
882
 +
00:41:56,840 --> 00:42:04,430
 +
was being facetious no in fact by the
 +
 +
883
 +
00:42:02,060 --> 00:42:06,710
 +
year 2000 you will be able to have a
 +
 +
884
 +
00:42:04,430 --> 00:42:10,310
 +
cuff link size thing that can go up to a
 +
 +
885
 +
00:42:06,710 --> 00:42:12,320
 +
satellite and come down you ever called
 +
 +
886
 +
00:42:10,310 --> 00:42:15,290
 +
at dinner if you have a cellular phone
 +
 +
887
 +
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:16,730
 +
and your friend has one and you've
 +
 +
888
 +
00:42:15,290 --> 00:42:19,520
 +
talked to each other across the dinner
 +
 +
889
 +
00:42:16,730 --> 00:42:20,960
 +
table with your cellular phones do you
 +
 +
890
 +
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:27,130
 +
have any idea of where the information
 +
 +
891
 +
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:31,400
 +
is going in order to come back okay so
 +
 +
892
 +
00:42:27,130 --> 00:42:33,470
 +
this is a way of thinking about I like
 +
 +
893
 +
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:37,400
 +
this one because it's so so you tray
 +
 +
894
 +
00:42:33,470 --> 00:42:39,440
 +
it's very Nicolas like it's so tray that
 +
 +
895
 +
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:41,840
 +
it gets people thinking about wow this
 +
 +
896
 +
00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:46,910
 +
is not the computing I thought we were
 +
 +
897
 +
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:49,730
 +
doing so particularly the future is easy
 +
 +
898
 +
00:42:46,910 --> 00:42:51,380
 +
it hasn't changed in 20 years that's the
 +
 +
899
 +
00:42:49,730 --> 00:42:53,630
 +
number one thing you have to understand
 +
 +
900
 +
00:42:51,380 --> 00:42:56,000
 +
it takes so long to get this stuff out
 +
 +
901
 +
00:42:53,630 --> 00:42:58,280
 +
of labs it takes even longer to convince
 +
 +
902
 +
00:42:56,000 --> 00:43:00,860
 +
venture capitalists and other people to
 +
 +
903
 +
00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:02,570
 +
support it every technology that's going
 +
 +
904
 +
00:43:00,860 --> 00:43:06,140
 +
to affect you in the next 10 years is
 +
 +
905
 +
00:43:02,570 --> 00:43:07,790
 +
already in somebody's lap so one of
 +
 +
906
 +
00:43:06,140 --> 00:43:10,280
 +
things you have to ask yourself do you
 +
 +
907
 +
00:43:07,790 --> 00:43:12,920
 +
pay somebody even half time to go around
 +
 +
908
 +
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:16,370
 +
and visit the 40 or so labs in the world
 +
 +
909
 +
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:17,060
 +
that count probably not so how do you
 +
 +
910
 +
00:43:16,370 --> 00:43:19,579
 +
know you're gonna wait until
 +
 +
911
 +
00:43:17,060 --> 00:43:21,229
 +
Businessweek discovers it
 +
 +
912
 +
00:43:19,579 --> 00:43:24,079
 +
they don't understand half of these
 +
 +
913
 +
00:43:21,229 --> 00:43:26,630
 +
technologies most scientists like myself
 +
 +
914
 +
00:43:24,079 --> 00:43:28,910
 +
spend part of our time just visiting
 +
 +
915
 +
00:43:26,630 --> 00:43:30,529
 +
other people's research labs because we
 +
 +
916
 +
00:43:28,910 --> 00:43:34,039
 +
can't wait for journals to come out
 +
 +
917
 +
00:43:30,529 --> 00:43:35,930
 +
journals are always two years behind and
 +
 +
918
 +
00:43:34,039 --> 00:43:38,209
 +
so most of the stuff virtually
 +
 +
919
 +
00:43:35,930 --> 00:43:40,609
 +
everything that is going to affect you
 +
 +
920
 +
00:43:38,209 --> 00:43:42,369
 +
already exists in some demonstratable
 +
 +
921
 +
00:43:40,609 --> 00:43:45,739
 +
form and you should know about it
 +
 +
922
 +
00:43:42,369 --> 00:43:47,599
 +
because those are the actual tools that
 +
 +
923
 +
00:43:45,739 --> 00:43:49,869
 +
we are going to make it possible for you
 +
 +
924
 +
00:43:47,599 --> 00:43:52,759
 +
to build the future that you want okay
 +
 +
925
 +
00:43:49,869 --> 00:43:57,650
 +
now here comes so that was the uplifting
 +
 +
926
 +
00:43:52,759 --> 00:43:59,900
 +
part now the problem with this picture
 +
 +
927
 +
00:43:57,650 --> 00:44:02,359
 +
is that every time a technological
 +
 +
928
 +
00:43:59,900 --> 00:44:03,859
 +
advance comes along almost everybody
 +
 +
929
 +
00:44:02,359 --> 00:44:05,630
 +
tries to automate all of their old
 +
 +
930
 +
00:44:03,859 --> 00:44:06,430
 +
processes we've already talked about
 +
 +
931
 +
00:44:05,630 --> 00:44:08,719
 +
that
 +
 +
932
 +
00:44:06,430 --> 00:44:11,209
 +
that is not the way to do it because
 +
 +
933
 +
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:13,700
 +
often the technology is not even as good
 +
 +
934
 +
00:44:11,209 --> 00:44:15,739
 +
as the old technology when it starts
 +
 +
935
 +
00:44:13,700 --> 00:44:19,759
 +
automating ever tried to read a couple
 +
 +
936
 +
00:44:15,739 --> 00:44:22,069
 +
of paragraphs off of CRT I think CRTs
 +
 +
937
 +
00:44:19,759 --> 00:44:25,670
 +
are good at automating what books do
 +
 +
938
 +
00:44:22,069 --> 00:44:27,559
 +
they're terrible so what you have to do
 +
 +
939
 +
00:44:25,670 --> 00:44:30,499
 +
is ask Ivan Sutherlands question which
 +
 +
940
 +
00:44:27,559 --> 00:44:32,239
 +
is what else can it do you have to
 +
 +
941
 +
00:44:30,499 --> 00:44:34,729
 +
understand how to leverage the new
 +
 +
942
 +
00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:36,469
 +
properties of this technology that will
 +
 +
943
 +
00:44:34,729 --> 00:44:40,190
 +
lead to new processes in your business
 +
 +
944
 +
00:44:36,469 --> 00:44:42,079
 +
and unfortunately for everybody it's
 +
 +
945
 +
00:44:40,190 --> 00:44:44,599
 +
also going to have to require some
 +
 +
946
 +
00:44:42,079 --> 00:44:47,019
 +
learning on your part this is the thing
 +
 +
947
 +
00:44:44,599 --> 00:44:50,059
 +
that humans hate especially Americans
 +
 +
948
 +
00:44:47,019 --> 00:44:52,930
 +
schools teach us to treat classes as
 +
 +
949
 +
00:44:50,059 --> 00:44:56,420
 +
vaccinations against dread diseases
 +
 +
950
 +
00:44:52,930 --> 00:44:58,130
 +
right remember saying thank God I'm done
 +
 +
951
 +
00:44:56,420 --> 00:45:00,349
 +
with that class I never have to take it
 +
 +
952
 +
00:44:58,130 --> 00:45:03,019
 +
again this is like getting a smallpox
 +
 +
953
 +
00:45:00,349 --> 00:45:06,079
 +
shot thank God I'm done with that
 +
 +
954
 +
00:45:03,019 --> 00:45:07,670
 +
vaccination now I'm safe I never have to
 +
 +
955
 +
00:45:06,079 --> 00:45:09,049
 +
learn anything yet the problem is it
 +
 +
956
 +
00:45:07,670 --> 00:45:11,150
 +
doesn't work like that anymore
 +
 +
957
 +
00:45:09,049 --> 00:45:13,219
 +
in order to leverage the new we have to
 +
 +
958
 +
00:45:11,150 --> 00:45:14,449
 +
learn what the new is in order to do
 +
 +
959
 +
00:45:13,219 --> 00:45:15,430
 +
that we have to understand how the mind
 +
 +
960
 +
00:45:14,449 --> 00:45:18,049
 +
works
 +
 +
961
 +
00:45:15,430 --> 00:45:19,489
 +
my favorite saying in McLuhan's is I
 +
 +
962
 +
00:45:18,049 --> 00:45:22,880
 +
don't know who discovered water but it
 +
 +
963
 +
00:45:19,489 --> 00:45:26,690
 +
wasn't a fish this is our number one
 +
 +
964
 +
00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:29,509
 +
problem what he meant is that we exist
 +
 +
965
 +
00:45:26,690 --> 00:45:31,219
 +
in a goldfish bowl filled with water
 +
 +
966
 +
00:45:29,509 --> 00:45:33,320
 +
that we don't know exists and that water
 +
 +
967
 +
00:45:31,219 --> 00:45:38,130
 +
is called our beliefs
 +
 +
968
 +
00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:40,350
 +
to us we are in reality those people
 +
 +
969
 +
00:45:38,130 --> 00:45:41,970
 +
halfway across the world that think
 +
 +
970
 +
00:45:40,350 --> 00:45:45,120
 +
differently than we do have to be wrong
 +
 +
971
 +
00:45:41,970 --> 00:45:47,310
 +
and therefore we should kill them this
 +
 +
972
 +
00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:49,950
 +
is the way human beings work because
 +
 +
973
 +
00:45:47,310 --> 00:45:53,370
 +
we're not conscious that we don't live
 +
 +
974
 +
00:45:49,950 --> 00:45:57,390
 +
in reality we live in beliefs in fact we
 +
 +
975
 +
00:45:53,370 --> 00:45:59,760
 +
can't ever get to reality can't ever get
 +
 +
976
 +
00:45:57,390 --> 00:46:02,610
 +
to reality there is no reality that we
 +
 +
977
 +
00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:06,060
 +
can get to yeah beliefs and the beliefs
 +
 +
978
 +
00:46:02,610 --> 00:46:08,250
 +
can be good or bad Maps so this this
 +
 +
979
 +
00:46:06,060 --> 00:46:09,990
 +
image I think is perfect if you always
 +
 +
980
 +
00:46:08,250 --> 00:46:12,030
 +
think of yourself as being in a goldfish
 +
 +
981
 +
00:46:09,990 --> 00:46:16,740
 +
bowl you have to ask yourself what color
 +
 +
982
 +
00:46:12,030 --> 00:46:18,590
 +
water am i swimming in right now so one
 +
 +
983
 +
00:46:16,740 --> 00:46:22,860
 +
of the things that we do culturally is
 +
 +
984
 +
00:46:18,590 --> 00:46:24,720
 +
that we teach people are special
 +
 +
985
 +
00:46:22,860 --> 00:46:26,370
 +
goldfish bowls so we have like a
 +
 +
986
 +
00:46:24,720 --> 00:46:31,070
 +
different goldfish bowl and people in
 +
 +
987
 +
00:46:26,370 --> 00:46:31,070
 +
India do or people in Lebanon
 +
 +
988
 +
00:46:34,120 --> 00:46:38,380
 +
okay now take a look at this face upside
 +
 +
989
 +
00:46:36,400 --> 00:46:41,070
 +
down face and see if you can see ting
 +
 +
990
 +
00:46:38,380 --> 00:46:45,130
 +
interesting about it
 +
 +
991
 +
00:46:41,070 --> 00:46:49,720
 +
who's got what do you think the mouth is
 +
 +
992
 +
00:46:45,130 --> 00:46:56,080
 +
what mouth is upside down see anything
 +
 +
993
 +
00:46:49,720 --> 00:46:57,520
 +
else about the picture okay let's let's
 +
 +
994
 +
00:46:56,080 --> 00:46:59,620
 +
pretend we're in a typical American
 +
 +
995
 +
00:46:57,520 --> 00:47:02,640
 +
school or let's say a Wells Fargo
 +
 +
996
 +
00:46:59,620 --> 00:47:06,010
 +
training center
 +
 +
997
 +
00:47:02,640 --> 00:47:10,950
 +
okay the dominant belief in school is
 +
 +
998
 +
00:47:06,010 --> 00:47:14,140
 +
that knowledge is a fluid and the way we
 +
 +
999
 +
00:47:10,950 --> 00:47:16,240
 +
teach it is we transfer drop by drop
 +
 +
1000
 +
00:47:14,140 --> 00:47:19,740
 +
from the full student full teacher
 +
 +
1001
 +
00:47:16,240 --> 00:47:22,780
 +
vessel to the empty student vessel okay
 +
 +
1002
 +
00:47:19,740 --> 00:47:24,160
 +
that fluid is in terms of a language
 +
 +
1003
 +
00:47:22,780 --> 00:47:26,530
 +
like English so let me give you a
 +
 +
1004
 +
00:47:24,160 --> 00:47:27,940
 +
sentence about this picture what we've
 +
 +
1005
 +
00:47:26,530 --> 00:47:31,690
 +
done here is we've taken a picture of a
 +
 +
1006
 +
00:47:27,940 --> 00:47:35,470
 +
young girl extracted her mouth and her
 +
 +
1007
 +
00:47:31,690 --> 00:47:36,790
 +
eyes turn both of them upside down put
 +
 +
1008
 +
00:47:35,470 --> 00:47:39,240
 +
them back into the picture and then
 +
 +
1009
 +
00:47:36,790 --> 00:47:43,030
 +
turned the entire picture upside down
 +
 +
1010
 +
00:47:39,240 --> 00:47:46,350
 +
okay so now you should be quite prepared
 +
 +
1011
 +
00:47:43,030 --> 00:47:46,350
 +
for what it looks like right side up
 +
 +
1012
 +
00:47:49,660 --> 00:47:53,720
 +
now I'm going to turn this back because
 +
 +
1013
 +
00:47:52,190 --> 00:48:00,440
 +
I've discovered nobody will listen to me
 +
 +
1014
 +
00:47:53,720 --> 00:48:02,240
 +
when it's on the other way now you have
 +
 +
1015
 +
00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:05,690
 +
to realize I didn't give you any more
 +
 +
1016
 +
00:48:02,240 --> 00:48:07,430
 +
information the second time right what I
 +
 +
1017
 +
00:48:05,690 --> 00:48:09,200
 +
described in that sentence was exactly
 +
 +
1018
 +
00:48:07,430 --> 00:48:11,329
 +
what you saw and yet you had a reaction
 +
 +
1019
 +
00:48:09,200 --> 00:48:13,490
 +
on the second picture you didn't have
 +
 +
1020
 +
00:48:11,329 --> 00:48:21,099
 +
one on the first who knows what that
 +
 +
1021
 +
00:48:13,490 --> 00:48:21,099
 +
means who's got a theory don't be shy
 +
 +
1022
 +
00:48:21,339 --> 00:48:32,930
 +
why is it worth it why is it worth a
 +
 +
1023
 +
00:48:23,569 --> 00:48:35,230
 +
thousand words because but why yeah but
 +
 +
1024
 +
00:48:32,930 --> 00:48:37,460
 +
why why couldn't you
 +
 +
1025
 +
00:48:35,230 --> 00:48:43,000
 +
why couldn't you picture what it was
 +
 +
1026
 +
00:48:37,460 --> 00:48:47,119
 +
going to look like from my words okay so
 +
 +
1027
 +
00:48:43,000 --> 00:48:49,490
 +
lots of different theory the real what
 +
 +
1028
 +
00:48:47,119 --> 00:48:50,780
 +
what is actually going on here and it's
 +
 +
1029
 +
00:48:49,490 --> 00:48:52,339
 +
been confirmed in a particularly
 +
 +
1030
 +
00:48:50,780 --> 00:48:54,559
 +
striking way as the last four or five
 +
 +
1031
 +
00:48:52,339 --> 00:48:57,500
 +
years is that when you're listening to
 +
 +
1032
 +
00:48:54,559 --> 00:48:59,420
 +
English sentences a part of your brain
 +
 +
1033
 +
00:48:57,500 --> 00:49:04,460
 +
over here and a part of your brain over
 +
 +
1034
 +
00:48:59,420 --> 00:49:05,930
 +
here is active okay and when you're
 +
 +
1035
 +
00:49:04,460 --> 00:49:07,760
 +
looking at pictures a part of your brain
 +
 +
1036
 +
00:49:05,930 --> 00:49:12,619
 +
back here and a part of your brain down
 +
 +
1037
 +
00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:15,589
 +
here particularly for faces is active so
 +
 +
1038
 +
00:49:12,619 --> 00:49:17,059
 +
you're thinking about words completely
 +
 +
1039
 +
00:49:15,589 --> 00:49:18,950
 +
differently and with a different set of
 +
 +
1040
 +
00:49:17,059 --> 00:49:23,089
 +
mechanisms than you're thinking about
 +
 +
1041
 +
00:49:18,950 --> 00:49:24,920
 +
pictures think about that this is why
 +
 +
1042
 +
00:49:23,089 --> 00:49:26,930
 +
McDonald's will never run a print ad
 +
 +
1043
 +
00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:29,260
 +
saying if you eat a McDonald's hamburger
 +
 +
1044
 +
00:49:26,930 --> 00:49:32,779
 +
you'll become a better-looking person
 +
 +
1045
 +
00:49:29,260 --> 00:49:35,750
 +
right because it's absurd in English but
 +
 +
1046
 +
00:49:32,779 --> 00:49:40,069
 +
what do they do they run ads with
 +
 +
1047
 +
00:49:35,750 --> 00:49:42,680
 +
gorgeous people holding hamburgers and a
 +
 +
1048
 +
00:49:40,069 --> 00:49:44,690
 +
different part of your brain a part of
 +
 +
1049
 +
00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:46,490
 +
your brain that remembers very well but
 +
 +
1050
 +
00:49:44,690 --> 00:49:48,799
 +
isn't so good at thinking makes the
 +
 +
1051
 +
00:49:46,490 --> 00:49:51,230
 +
inference the advertisers want them what
 +
 +
1052
 +
00:49:48,799 --> 00:49:53,029
 +
you want you to McLuhan was once asked
 +
 +
1053
 +
00:49:51,230 --> 00:49:54,349
 +
why don't you read psychology books and
 +
 +
1054
 +
00:49:53,029 --> 00:49:56,750
 +
he said well psychologists study white
 +
 +
1055
 +
00:49:54,349 --> 00:49:58,279
 +
rats he says I look to see what
 +
 +
1056
 +
00:49:56,750 --> 00:50:01,299
 +
advertisers are doing they're the ones
 +
 +
1057
 +
00:49:58,279 --> 00:50:01,299
 +
who are studying humans
 +
 +
1058
 +
00:50:04,509 --> 00:50:09,769
 +
this is why the Presidential Debates
 +
 +
1059
 +
00:50:07,160 --> 00:50:12,529
 +
which were three hours long a hundred
 +
 +
1060
 +
00:50:09,769 --> 00:50:16,759
 +
years ago are now two minutes on each
 +
 +
1061
 +
00:50:12,529 --> 00:50:17,809
 +
point on television right because there
 +
 +
1062
 +
00:50:16,759 --> 00:50:21,529
 +
is nothing to think about
 +
 +
1063
 +
00:50:17,809 --> 00:50:23,059
 +
from what television shows you and none
 +
 +
1064
 +
00:50:21,529 --> 00:50:26,119
 +
of the politicians want you to think
 +
 +
1065
 +
00:50:23,059 --> 00:50:28,489
 +
about any of the issues that's why they
 +
 +
1066
 +
00:50:26,119 --> 00:50:29,989
 +
come on television and you don't want to
 +
 +
1067
 +
00:50:28,489 --> 00:50:34,900
 +
think about the issues which is why you
 +
 +
1068
 +
00:50:29,989 --> 00:50:39,859
 +
watch them on television itself and I
 +
 +
1069
 +
00:50:34,900 --> 00:50:43,309
 +
there's an ni there's no one of us there
 +
 +
1070
 +
00:50:39,859 --> 00:50:45,589
 +
are actually lots of us in here thinking
 +
 +
1071
 +
00:50:43,309 --> 00:50:47,679
 +
different ways and most of the time
 +
 +
1072
 +
00:50:45,589 --> 00:50:50,630
 +
we're not aware of it at all
 +
 +
1073
 +
00:50:47,679 --> 00:50:52,579
 +
so Brenner was American psychologist who
 +
 +
1074
 +
00:50:50,630 --> 00:50:55,339
 +
studied this stuff he took a six year
 +
 +
1075
 +
00:50:52,579 --> 00:50:57,529
 +
old kid six year old kids when you pour
 +
 +
1076
 +
00:50:55,339 --> 00:50:59,630
 +
from a squat glass into a tall thin one
 +
 +
1077
 +
00:50:57,529 --> 00:51:02,269
 +
we'll say there's more water in the tall
 +
 +
1078
 +
00:50:59,630 --> 00:51:04,309
 +
thin glass because they're there in
 +
 +
1079
 +
00:51:02,269 --> 00:51:07,640
 +
what's called an iconic reasoning stage
 +
 +
1080
 +
00:51:04,309 --> 00:51:11,029
 +
and this is pretty constant from kid to
 +
 +
1081
 +
00:51:07,640 --> 00:51:13,069
 +
kid around age five or six then Brenner
 +
 +
1082
 +
00:51:11,029 --> 00:51:14,359
 +
did something interesting he's got a kid
 +
 +
1083
 +
00:51:13,069 --> 00:51:16,189
 +
who would say there's more water in the
 +
 +
1084
 +
00:51:14,359 --> 00:51:18,739
 +
tall glass and he covered up the tall
 +
 +
1085
 +
00:51:16,189 --> 00:51:20,119
 +
glass with cardboard and asked the
 +
 +
1086
 +
00:51:18,739 --> 00:51:22,069
 +
question again the kids say oh wait a
 +
 +
1087
 +
00:51:20,119 --> 00:51:24,199
 +
minute there can't be more water where
 +
 +
1088
 +
00:51:22,069 --> 00:51:25,699
 +
were to go where would it come from and
 +
 +
1089
 +
00:51:24,199 --> 00:51:27,799
 +
Brenner took the cardboard away and the
 +
 +
1090
 +
00:51:25,699 --> 00:51:29,839
 +
kid said no look there's more water and
 +
 +
1091
 +
00:51:27,799 --> 00:51:31,819
 +
Brenda put the cardboard back and the
 +
 +
1092
 +
00:51:29,839 --> 00:51:33,079
 +
kid changed his mind again so if you
 +
 +
1093
 +
00:51:31,819 --> 00:51:35,529
 +
have any six-year-olds you'd like to
 +
 +
1094
 +
00:51:33,079 --> 00:51:35,529
 +
torment
 +
 +
1095
 +
00:51:39,470 --> 00:51:47,910
 +
okay what was Brenner exploring who's
 +
 +
1096
 +
00:51:42,809 --> 00:51:50,819
 +
got a theory yeah
 +
 +
1097
 +
00:51:47,910 --> 00:51:56,039
 +
visual versus language visual versus
 +
 +
1098
 +
00:51:50,819 --> 00:51:59,700
 +
symbolic so he said you know there are
 +
 +
1099
 +
00:51:56,039 --> 00:52:01,249
 +
at least three ways we have of knowing
 +
 +
1100
 +
00:51:59,700 --> 00:52:03,539
 +
about the world and probably a lot more
 +
 +
1101
 +
00:52:01,249 --> 00:52:05,460
 +
how many people here have ever
 +
 +
1102
 +
00:52:03,539 --> 00:52:07,109
 +
remembered a route better when they were
 +
 +
1103
 +
00:52:05,460 --> 00:52:17,940
 +
driving the car versus when they were a
 +
 +
1104
 +
00:52:07,109 --> 00:52:21,299
 +
passenger why huh yeah we have a
 +
 +
1105
 +
00:52:17,940 --> 00:52:22,829
 +
kinesthetic mentality this is the one if
 +
 +
1106
 +
00:52:21,299 --> 00:52:24,150
 +
you're a musician you know much a lot
 +
 +
1107
 +
00:52:22,829 --> 00:52:25,739
 +
about this one this is the one that you
 +
 +
1108
 +
00:52:24,150 --> 00:52:29,460
 +
have to get it this is the one that
 +
 +
1109
 +
00:52:25,739 --> 00:52:31,470
 +
learns how to ride the bike so we have
 +
 +
1110
 +
00:52:29,460 --> 00:52:32,940
 +
that's a completely separate one that's
 +
 +
1111
 +
00:52:31,470 --> 00:52:35,180
 +
why you can't just watch somebody
 +
 +
1112
 +
00:52:32,940 --> 00:52:37,019
 +
playing a sport and go out and do it
 +
 +
1113
 +
00:52:35,180 --> 00:52:40,470
 +
it's in a different part of the brain
 +
 +
1114
 +
00:52:37,019 --> 00:52:44,160
 +
it's in a different set of symbols we
 +
 +
1115
 +
00:52:40,470 --> 00:52:46,170
 +
have a visual mentality one of its great
 +
 +
1116
 +
00:52:44,160 --> 00:52:48,299
 +
tricks is how many people here now admit
 +
 +
1117
 +
00:52:46,170 --> 00:52:51,079
 +
it I'll admit it how many people click
 +
 +
1118
 +
00:52:48,299 --> 00:52:51,079
 +
through channels
 +
 +
1119
 +
00:52:51,570 --> 00:52:55,720
 +
how many people here have ever clicked
 +
 +
1120
 +
00:52:53,980 --> 00:52:58,990
 +
into the middle of a movie they haven't
 +
 +
1121
 +
00:52:55,720 --> 00:53:03,490
 +
seen for 20 years how long did it take
 +
 +
1122
 +
00:52:58,990 --> 00:53:07,570
 +
you to recognize that movie a couple of
 +
 +
1123
 +
00:53:03,490 --> 00:53:14,080
 +
seconds think about that now compared to
 +
 +
1124
 +
00:53:07,570 --> 00:53:16,690
 +
school twenty years ago you were with a
 +
 +
1125
 +
00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:18,130
 +
significant other most likely you did
 +
 +
1126
 +
00:53:16,690 --> 00:53:20,920
 +
not have your mind on the movie
 +
 +
1127
 +
00:53:18,130 --> 00:53:24,640
 +
particularly didn't know you're going to
 +
 +
1128
 +
00:53:20,920 --> 00:53:26,820
 +
be tested 20 years later the test was
 +
 +
1129
 +
00:53:24,640 --> 00:53:30,570
 +
random into the center of the thing and
 +
 +
1130
 +
00:53:26,820 --> 00:53:32,740
 +
yet within about 50 frames your visual
 +
 +
1131
 +
00:53:30,570 --> 00:53:34,900
 +
mentality had retrieved that you'd seen
 +
 +
1132
 +
00:53:32,740 --> 00:53:36,130
 +
it before and about half of the time in
 +
 +
1133
 +
00:53:34,900 --> 00:53:37,950
 +
tests that have been done people
 +
 +
1134
 +
00:53:36,130 --> 00:53:40,270
 +
remember what's going to happen next
 +
 +
1135
 +
00:53:37,950 --> 00:53:42,730
 +
think about this in the context of your
 +
 +
1136
 +
00:53:40,270 --> 00:53:47,619
 +
entire life and think of why there are
 +
 +
1137
 +
00:53:42,730 --> 00:53:50,080
 +
icons on a user interface if you put
 +
 +
1138
 +
00:53:47,619 --> 00:53:52,030
 +
pictures of animals up on the wall you
 +
 +
1139
 +
00:53:50,080 --> 00:53:55,990
 +
can find the elephant four times faster
 +
 +
1140
 +
00:53:52,030 --> 00:53:58,990
 +
than pic then words for the animals and
 +
 +
1141
 +
00:53:55,990 --> 00:54:01,540
 +
here's a beautiful one if you put boxes
 +
 +
1142
 +
00:53:58,990 --> 00:54:05,020
 +
around the words you can find the word
 +
 +
1143
 +
00:54:01,540 --> 00:54:09,480
 +
elephant twice as fast then if there
 +
 +
1144
 +
00:54:05,020 --> 00:54:09,480
 +
isn't a box there why
 +
 +
1145
 +
00:54:15,710 --> 00:54:22,309
 +
yeah but basically what happens is the
 +
 +
1146
 +
00:54:17,780 --> 00:54:23,930
 +
Box icon eise's the word the words are
 +
 +
1147
 +
00:54:22,309 --> 00:54:26,059
 +
actually perceived in a different place
 +
 +
1148
 +
00:54:23,930 --> 00:54:30,380
 +
in your brain then then images that
 +
 +
1149
 +
00:54:26,059 --> 00:54:33,770
 +
aren't words see why am I am I telling
 +
 +
1150
 +
00:54:30,380 --> 00:54:37,250
 +
you this stuff because the world is not
 +
 +
1151
 +
00:54:33,770 --> 00:54:39,619
 +
as it seems right we go from day to day
 +
 +
1152
 +
00:54:37,250 --> 00:54:43,910
 +
from moment to moment thinking that
 +
 +
1153
 +
00:54:39,619 --> 00:54:46,099
 +
what's out there is reality it isn't all
 +
 +
1154
 +
00:54:43,910 --> 00:54:48,260
 +
it is is interpretations by that three
 +
 +
1155
 +
00:54:46,099 --> 00:54:52,160
 +
pounds of oatmeal we've got between our
 +
 +
1156
 +
00:54:48,260 --> 00:54:55,300
 +
ears and that three pounds of oatmeal
 +
 +
1157
 +
00:54:52,160 --> 00:54:58,849
 +
can be taught to perceive things any way
 +
 +
1158
 +
00:54:55,300 --> 00:55:01,790
 +
the culture chooses let's look at
 +
 +
1159
 +
00:54:58,849 --> 00:55:05,630
 +
creativity for a second here we are
 +
 +
1160
 +
00:55:01,790 --> 00:55:06,940
 +
plotting along in the pink context you
 +
 +
1161
 +
00:55:05,630 --> 00:55:10,579
 +
can think of this is a goldfish bowl
 +
 +
1162
 +
00:55:06,940 --> 00:55:11,930
 +
we're in a goldfish bowl and when
 +
 +
1163
 +
00:55:10,579 --> 00:55:13,119
 +
somebody wants us to do something the
 +
 +
1164
 +
00:55:11,930 --> 00:55:15,349
 +
best thing we can think of is
 +
 +
1165
 +
00:55:13,119 --> 00:55:18,380
 +
extrapolation or if going from A to B
 +
 +
1166
 +
00:55:15,349 --> 00:55:20,660
 +
problem solving so it's very hard to be
 +
 +
1167
 +
00:55:18,380 --> 00:55:23,540
 +
creative when you stay inside the
 +
 +
1168
 +
00:55:20,660 --> 00:55:26,059
 +
goldfish bowl moments of creativity
 +
 +
1169
 +
00:55:23,540 --> 00:55:29,270
 +
happen when something happens oh yeah
 +
 +
1170
 +
00:55:26,059 --> 00:55:33,290
 +
here's a good example is if you take
 +
 +
1171
 +
00:55:29,270 --> 00:55:37,160
 +
frogs and paralyze their food with a
 +
 +
1172
 +
00:55:33,290 --> 00:55:41,240
 +
little chloroform flies the frog will
 +
 +
1173
 +
00:55:37,160 --> 00:55:44,329
 +
not eat them the Frog cannot see flies
 +
 +
1174
 +
00:55:41,240 --> 00:55:46,430
 +
that aren't moving that's incredible
 +
 +
1175
 +
00:55:44,329 --> 00:55:51,140
 +
but it will try and eat little oblong
 +
 +
1176
 +
00:55:46,430 --> 00:55:52,819
 +
shapes of cardboard that are moving this
 +
 +
1177
 +
00:55:51,140 --> 00:55:54,859
 +
cyan't we scientists love this one
 +
 +
1178
 +
00:55:52,819 --> 00:55:56,630
 +
because we we think of the you know the
 +
 +
1179
 +
00:55:54,859 --> 00:55:58,250
 +
ideas they're all around us if you think
 +
 +
1180
 +
00:55:56,630 --> 00:56:02,240
 +
of the Flies as I did we just can't see
 +
 +
1181
 +
00:55:58,250 --> 00:56:03,799
 +
them they're just there all the time we
 +
 +
1182
 +
00:56:02,240 --> 00:56:06,170
 +
can't see my nervous system won't let us
 +
 +
1183
 +
00:56:03,799 --> 00:56:10,970
 +
do it we're keep on snapping at pieces
 +
 +
1184
 +
00:56:06,170 --> 00:56:13,130
 +
of cardboard but then something great
 +
 +
1185
 +
00:56:10,970 --> 00:56:16,700
 +
happens something makes us look at the
 +
 +
1186
 +
00:56:13,130 --> 00:56:19,460
 +
idea in a different way and bingo we
 +
 +
1187
 +
00:56:16,700 --> 00:56:22,490
 +
have an idea this is why I say terrific
 +
 +
1188
 +
00:56:19,460 --> 00:56:24,650
 +
ideas usually hide behind good ones good
 +
 +
1189
 +
00:56:22,490 --> 00:56:26,420
 +
ones are the ones that you get by logic
 +
 +
1190
 +
00:56:24,650 --> 00:56:28,460
 +
in the same context you're improving
 +
 +
1191
 +
00:56:26,420 --> 00:56:29,000
 +
something this is what engineers like to
 +
 +
1192
 +
00:56:28,460 --> 00:56:30,560
 +
do
 +
 +
1193
 +
00:56:29,000 --> 00:56:34,760
 +
take something it already exists and
 +
 +
1194
 +
00:56:30,560 --> 00:56:36,470
 +
make it better okay you want to get a
 +
 +
1195
 +
00:56:34,760 --> 00:56:39,050
 +
completely new idea you have to have a
 +
 +
1196
 +
00:56:36,470 --> 00:56:41,990
 +
bingo and this bingo operates in
 +
 +
1197
 +
00:56:39,050 --> 00:56:44,060
 +
different areas so Arthur Kessler said
 +
 +
1198
 +
00:56:41,990 --> 00:56:46,460
 +
you know if you're telling a joke this
 +
 +
1199
 +
00:56:44,060 --> 00:56:48,410
 +
is a joke isn't it the joke takes you
 +
 +
1200
 +
00:56:46,460 --> 00:56:50,720
 +
down one path and suddenly reveals
 +
 +
1201
 +
00:56:48,410 --> 00:56:52,460
 +
you're in another context so if it's a
 +
 +
1202
 +
00:56:50,720 --> 00:56:56,840
 +
joke you laugh out loud and sometimes
 +
 +
1203
 +
00:56:52,460 --> 00:56:59,210
 +
you do in science as well science it's
 +
 +
1204
 +
00:56:56,840 --> 00:57:02,390
 +
in humorous ha-ha and science it's a ha
 +
 +
1205
 +
00:56:59,210 --> 00:57:05,450
 +
and an art it's aa because each one of
 +
 +
1206
 +
00:57:02,390 --> 00:57:07,130
 +
these things is designed and is set up
 +
 +
1207
 +
00:57:05,450 --> 00:57:10,280
 +
to take you from the context you're in
 +
 +
1208
 +
00:57:07,130 --> 00:57:14,330
 +
to another context you ever thought of
 +
 +
1209
 +
00:57:10,280 --> 00:57:16,070
 +
having art classes at Wells Fargo ever
 +
 +
1210
 +
00:57:14,330 --> 00:57:20,210
 +
thought of having art classes for your
 +
 +
1211
 +
00:57:16,070 --> 00:57:24,190
 +
kids in school after prop 13 ever wonder
 +
 +
1212
 +
00:57:20,210 --> 00:57:24,190
 +
why people are dull and boring
 +
 +
1213
 +
00:57:32,350 --> 00:57:39,800
 +
yeah aha
 +
 +
1214
 +
00:57:35,530 --> 00:57:41,210
 +
that's the whole point of this talk so
 +
 +
1215
 +
00:57:39,800 --> 00:57:42,620
 +
if we look at Kessler's way of looking
 +
 +
1216
 +
00:57:41,210 --> 00:57:45,170
 +
at things general education is
 +
 +
1217
 +
00:57:42,620 --> 00:57:47,810
 +
incredibly important all that stuff that
 +
 +
1218
 +
00:57:45,170 --> 00:57:50,630
 +
is non pragmatic is actually what we
 +
 +
1219
 +
00:57:47,810 --> 00:57:53,630
 +
need to be creative the reason is that
 +
 +
1220
 +
00:57:50,630 --> 00:57:56,120
 +
if we know lots of things and we're sort
 +
 +
1221
 +
00:57:53,630 --> 00:57:57,740
 +
of meandering our way in the pink
 +
 +
1222
 +
00:57:56,120 --> 00:58:01,040
 +
context where I can we usually are just
 +
 +
1223
 +
00:57:57,740 --> 00:58:03,080
 +
our subconscious mind makes little
 +
 +
1224
 +
00:58:01,040 --> 00:58:06,350
 +
ripples into these other things that we
 +
 +
1225
 +
00:58:03,080 --> 00:58:07,850
 +
know it's like a little ripple into the
 +
 +
1226
 +
00:58:06,350 --> 00:58:09,650
 +
blue context for a second and then
 +
 +
1227
 +
00:58:07,850 --> 00:58:11,300
 +
flashing back out because the the pink
 +
 +
1228
 +
00:58:09,650 --> 00:58:12,890
 +
context said oh no that's not what we're
 +
 +
1229
 +
00:58:11,300 --> 00:58:15,170
 +
talking about so these little
 +
 +
1230
 +
00:58:12,890 --> 00:58:17,240
 +
distractions that are going on people
 +
 +
1231
 +
00:58:15,170 --> 00:58:21,680
 +
who are good creative thinkers know how
 +
 +
1232
 +
00:58:17,240 --> 00:58:23,270
 +
to make those distractions appear they
 +
 +
1233
 +
00:58:21,680 --> 00:58:26,410
 +
get them out of their subconscious and
 +
 +
1234
 +
00:58:23,270 --> 00:58:29,810
 +
can make them explode into these ideas
 +
 +
1235
 +
00:58:26,410 --> 00:58:34,310
 +
the more you know the more context you
 +
 +
1236
 +
00:58:29,810 --> 00:58:38,120
 +
have to change from the way you're
 +
 +
1237
 +
00:58:34,310 --> 00:58:38,720
 +
thinking into some new way here's
 +
 +
1238
 +
00:58:38,120 --> 00:58:41,950
 +
another problem
 +
 +
1239
 +
00:58:38,720 --> 00:58:44,210
 +
I love frogs they're just the best
 +
 +
1240
 +
00:58:41,950 --> 00:58:47,990
 +
example we probably all of us had front
 +
 +
1241
 +
00:58:44,210 --> 00:58:50,240
 +
have frog blood in us there's another
 +
 +
1242
 +
00:58:47,990 --> 00:58:51,770
 +
thing you can do with a frog you can put
 +
 +
1243
 +
00:58:50,240 --> 00:58:55,430
 +
it in a pot of water and turn on the
 +
 +
1244
 +
00:58:51,770 --> 00:58:58,010
 +
heat really low and that frogs nervous
 +
 +
1245
 +
00:58:55,430 --> 00:59:00,560
 +
system is not set up to detect absolute
 +
 +
1246
 +
00:58:58,010 --> 00:59:04,070
 +
temperature so it will never climb out
 +
 +
1247
 +
00:59:00,560 --> 00:59:07,880
 +
of the pot you'll just sit there and
 +
 +
1248
 +
00:59:04,070 --> 00:59:09,290
 +
gradually boil now the Frog the previous
 +
 +
1249
 +
00:59:07,880 --> 00:59:12,840
 +
frog with the Flies I think of as
 +
 +
1250
 +
00:59:09,290 --> 00:59:16,869
 +
science this one I think of his business
 +
 +
1251
 +
00:59:12,840 --> 00:59:16,869
 +
[Laughter]
 +
 +
1252
 +
00:59:18,330 --> 00:59:24,610
 +
let's be really careful and deliberate
 +
 +
1253
 +
00:59:22,240 --> 00:59:33,580
 +
and we'll really think this out and
 +
 +
1254
 +
00:59:24,610 --> 00:59:35,830
 +
meanwhile okay here's for about a
 +
 +
1255
 +
00:59:33,580 --> 00:59:42,010
 +
hundred thousand years ago here are some
 +
 +
1256
 +
00:59:35,830 --> 00:59:44,770
 +
hand axes so here's here's one of the
 +
 +
1257
 +
00:59:42,010 --> 00:59:48,700
 +
earliest tools that humans used you
 +
 +
1258
 +
00:59:44,770 --> 00:59:51,250
 +
notice it has a flaw in the design when
 +
 +
1259
 +
00:59:48,700 --> 00:59:54,220
 +
you pound on it this goes into your palm
 +
 +
1260
 +
00:59:51,250 --> 00:59:57,100
 +
you pound on it it pounds back into your
 +
 +
1261
 +
00:59:54,220 --> 00:59:58,750
 +
palm and later on they made an
 +
 +
1262
 +
00:59:57,100 --> 01:00:00,790
 +
improvement is they flattened out this
 +
 +
1263
 +
00:59:58,750 --> 01:00:03,550
 +
part so when you pound on it it wouldn't
 +
 +
1264
 +
01:00:00,790 --> 01:00:05,380
 +
pound back into your palm and the thing
 +
 +
1265
 +
01:00:03,550 --> 01:00:07,570
 +
I like especially about this is that the
 +
 +
1266
 +
01:00:05,380 --> 01:00:08,890
 +
interval of time between the picture on
 +
 +
1267
 +
01:00:07,570 --> 01:00:13,930
 +
the left and the picture on the right is
 +
 +
1268
 +
01:00:08,890 --> 01:00:15,310
 +
about two hundred thousand years you can
 +
 +
1269
 +
01:00:13,930 --> 01:00:16,840
 +
imagine every once in a while somebody
 +
 +
1270
 +
01:00:15,310 --> 01:00:18,160
 +
in a village would say you know if we
 +
 +
1271
 +
01:00:16,840 --> 01:00:21,780
 +
just flattened this thing off and they
 +
 +
1272
 +
01:00:18,160 --> 01:00:21,780
 +
take this guy and burn him at the stake
 +
 +
1273
 +
01:00:21,980 --> 01:00:32,400
 +
going against tradition the way it's
 +
 +
1274
 +
01:00:26,849 --> 01:00:33,750
 +
always been done against reality because
 +
 +
1275
 +
01:00:32,400 --> 01:00:34,680
 +
the problem is that every time somebody
 +
 +
1276
 +
01:00:33,750 --> 01:00:36,119
 +
does something like this they're
 +
 +
1277
 +
01:00:34,680 --> 01:00:38,160
 +
actually violating somebody else's
 +
 +
1278
 +
01:00:36,119 --> 01:00:39,990
 +
notion of reality that is why people
 +
 +
1279
 +
01:00:38,160 --> 01:00:42,089
 +
hang on so much they're willing to do
 +
 +
1280
 +
01:00:39,990 --> 01:00:45,539
 +
almost anything rather than be pulled
 +
 +
1281
 +
01:00:42,089 --> 01:00:48,119
 +
out of what they're comfortable with so
 +
 +
1282
 +
01:00:45,539 --> 01:00:52,190
 +
basically what we are today are cave
 +
 +
1283
 +
01:00:48,119 --> 01:00:52,190
 +
people with briefcases
 +
 +
1284
 +
01:00:53,509 --> 01:00:59,400
 +
we're the same genetically as we were a
 +
 +
1285
 +
01:00:56,099 --> 01:01:01,559
 +
hundred thousand years ago but instead
 +
 +
1286
 +
01:00:59,400 --> 01:01:04,559
 +
of being able to learn our culture by
 +
 +
1287
 +
01:01:01,559 --> 01:01:06,059
 +
age 7 or 8 and then committing to it for
 +
 +
1288
 +
01:01:04,559 --> 01:01:08,039
 +
the rest of our life we actually have
 +
 +
1289
 +
01:01:06,059 --> 01:01:12,569
 +
major changes every three or four years
 +
 +
1290
 +
01:01:08,039 --> 01:01:14,609
 +
this is what is screwing us up and when
 +
 +
1291
 +
01:01:12,569 --> 01:01:18,950
 +
a crisis comes along how do we do it we
 +
 +
1292
 +
01:01:14,609 --> 01:01:21,269
 +
use our guts one of my favorite things
 +
 +
1293
 +
01:01:18,950 --> 01:01:22,559
 +
in the paper a couple of days ago in the
 +
 +
1294
 +
01:01:21,269 --> 01:01:27,990
 +
New York Times maybe you saw in the
 +
 +
1295
 +
01:01:22,559 --> 01:01:31,769
 +
business section it said the Fed uses
 +
 +
1296
 +
01:01:27,990 --> 01:01:35,339
 +
its instinct to set the the interest
 +
 +
1297
 +
01:01:31,769 --> 01:01:37,680
 +
rate they said we use our instinct to
 +
 +
1298
 +
01:01:35,339 --> 01:01:39,750
 +
set the ants they're talking about an
 +
 +
1299
 +
01:01:37,680 --> 01:01:40,920
 +
economy with millions and millions of
 +
 +
1300
 +
01:01:39,750 --> 01:01:45,359
 +
different parts and they're trying to
 +
 +
1301
 +
01:01:40,920 --> 01:01:47,730
 +
use their instinct yeah this is like
 +
 +
1302
 +
01:01:45,359 --> 01:01:50,220
 +
voodoo
 +
 +
1303
 +
01:01:47,730 --> 01:01:51,480
 +
another one I saw today and the USA
 +
 +
1304
 +
01:01:50,220 --> 01:01:54,930
 +
Today was good there was a spokesman
 +
 +
1305
 +
01:01:51,480 --> 01:01:57,150
 +
from the tobacco Institute saying they
 +
 +
1306
 +
01:01:54,930 --> 01:01:59,369
 +
did a survey that showed that many more
 +
 +
1307
 +
01:01:57,150 --> 01:02:01,049
 +
people in America knew that cigarette
 +
 +
1308
 +
01:01:59,369 --> 01:02:03,059
 +
smoking was dangerous to their health
 +
 +
1309
 +
01:02:01,049 --> 01:02:06,180
 +
than new who gave the Sermon on the
 +
 +
1310
 +
01:02:03,059 --> 01:02:07,680
 +
Mount it's only one in three knew it was
 +
 +
1311
 +
01:02:06,180 --> 01:02:10,410
 +
Jesus that gave the Sermon on the Mount
 +
 +
1312
 +
01:02:07,680 --> 01:02:12,450
 +
but 80 percent of the people in America
 +
 +
1313
 +
01:02:10,410 --> 01:02:16,859
 +
and almost everybody who smoked knew it
 +
 +
1314
 +
01:02:12,450 --> 01:02:18,900
 +
was dangerous so why don't they quit my
 +
 +
1315
 +
01:02:16,859 --> 01:02:21,690
 +
cardiologist I talked to a couple of
 +
 +
1316
 +
01:02:18,900 --> 01:02:26,369
 +
months ago said 300,000 Americans will
 +
 +
1317
 +
01:02:21,690 --> 01:02:28,589
 +
die this year from cardiovascular
 +
 +
1318
 +
01:02:26,369 --> 01:02:30,569
 +
disease that was easily preventable by
 +
 +
1319
 +
01:02:28,589 --> 01:02:31,980
 +
just changing that we're told by their
 +
 +
1320
 +
01:02:30,569 --> 01:02:34,680
 +
doctors that all I had to do is change
 +
 +
1321
 +
01:02:31,980 --> 01:02:37,319
 +
their diet and exercise patterns why not
 +
 +
1322
 +
01:02:34,680 --> 01:02:39,089
 +
they quit the reason is our nervous
 +
 +
1323
 +
01:02:37,319 --> 01:02:41,400
 +
system is not set up to be interested in
 +
 +
1324
 +
01:02:39,089 --> 01:02:44,490
 +
long-term events it's set up to be wary
 +
 +
1325
 +
01:02:41,400 --> 01:02:47,490
 +
of saber-tooth Tigers we love short
 +
 +
1326
 +
01:02:44,490 --> 01:02:51,390
 +
quick remember Jessica McClure little
 +
 +
1327
 +
01:02:47,490 --> 01:02:52,980
 +
girl in the well in Texas 58 hours she
 +
 +
1328
 +
01:02:51,390 --> 01:02:54,510
 +
was in there and many Americans watch
 +
 +
1329
 +
01:02:52,980 --> 01:02:56,940
 +
that almost continuously see what
 +
 +
1330
 +
01:02:54,510 --> 01:02:59,040
 +
happened during those 58 hours a hundred
 +
 +
1331
 +
01:02:56,940 --> 01:03:03,079
 +
and five thousand children in the world
 +
 +
1332
 +
01:02:59,040 --> 01:03:09,359
 +
died from preventable causes every year
 +
 +
1333
 +
01:03:03,079 --> 01:03:10,950
 +
in 94 in 93 there's a holocaust worth of
 +
 +
1334
 +
01:03:09,359 --> 01:03:14,970
 +
children dying from preventable causes
 +
 +
1335
 +
01:03:10,950 --> 01:03:17,160
 +
10 million dying from starvation and
 +
 +
1336
 +
01:03:14,970 --> 01:03:19,410
 +
dehydration and so forth we can't even
 +
 +
1337
 +
01:03:17,160 --> 01:03:21,299
 +
deal with it we can't imagine it and so
 +
 +
1338
 +
01:03:19,410 --> 01:03:24,270
 +
we fastened on to one little girl in a
 +
 +
1339
 +
01:03:21,299 --> 01:03:25,579
 +
well who wasn't even hurt right this is
 +
 +
1340
 +
01:03:24,270 --> 01:03:29,270
 +
nuts
 +
 +
1341
 +
01:03:25,579 --> 01:03:29,270
 +
this is not sane
 +
 +
1342
 +
01:03:33,000 --> 01:03:41,490
 +
our mind is tiny we look at an epidemic
 +
 +
1343
 +
01:03:37,470 --> 01:03:46,380
 +
when it's starting off through a little
 +
 +
1344
 +
01:03:41,490 --> 01:03:48,960
 +
keyhole you see nothing that's what
 +
 +
1345
 +
01:03:46,380 --> 01:03:52,530
 +
happened when aids was announced every
 +
 +
1346
 +
01:03:48,960 --> 01:03:56,520
 +
scientist in this country knew that if
 +
 +
1347
 +
01:03:52,530 --> 01:03:59,400
 +
you have a disease that is contagious
 +
 +
1348
 +
01:03:56,520 --> 01:04:02,970
 +
fatal and you don't have a cure you have
 +
 +
1349
 +
01:03:59,400 --> 01:04:05,730
 +
one of these guys but nobody could see
 +
 +
1350
 +
01:04:02,970 --> 01:04:06,840
 +
it and so nobody did anything you know
 +
 +
1351
 +
01:04:05,730 --> 01:04:10,440
 +
many people are going to die in Africa
 +
 +
1352
 +
01:04:06,840 --> 01:04:13,109
 +
in the next 12 years 35 million young
 +
 +
1353
 +
01:04:10,440 --> 01:04:14,130
 +
Vinney in the Pacific Rim 42 million
 +
 +
1354
 +
01:04:13,109 --> 01:04:16,619
 +
according to the World Health
 +
 +
1355
 +
01:04:14,130 --> 01:04:19,950
 +
Organization they're politicians still
 +
 +
1356
 +
01:04:16,619 --> 01:04:24,990
 +
don't get it because nobody is dying
 +
 +
1357
 +
01:04:19,950 --> 01:04:27,599
 +
like that now we can't use our common
 +
 +
1358
 +
01:04:24,990 --> 01:04:29,609
 +
sense to deal with the complexity of the
 +
 +
1359
 +
01:04:27,599 --> 01:04:31,349
 +
world that are in today we have to use
 +
 +
1360
 +
01:04:29,609 --> 01:04:35,340
 +
something beyond common sense we have to
 +
 +
1361
 +
01:04:31,349 --> 01:04:37,320
 +
use symbolic models of the world because
 +
 +
1362
 +
01:04:35,340 --> 01:04:40,950
 +
we have to do something before we just
 +
 +
1363
 +
01:04:37,320 --> 01:04:44,580
 +
walk off the cliff so the whole whole
 +
 +
1364
 +
01:04:40,950 --> 01:04:47,460
 +
problem that I'm talking about here has
 +
 +
1365
 +
01:04:44,580 --> 01:04:50,010
 +
to do with dealing with things that are
 +
 +
1366
 +
01:04:47,460 --> 01:04:53,280
 +
more complex than our common sense was
 +
 +
1367
 +
01:04:50,010 --> 01:04:55,710
 +
set up for problem solving which is what
 +
 +
1368
 +
01:04:53,280 --> 01:04:58,680
 +
these teach in school is a terrible way
 +
 +
1369
 +
01:04:55,710 --> 01:05:00,990
 +
of getting ahead mosquitoes
 +
 +
1370
 +
01:04:58,680 --> 01:05:02,940
 +
solve it with DDT wind up with more
 +
 +
1371
 +
01:05:00,990 --> 01:05:04,170
 +
mosquitoes because you're not just
 +
 +
1372
 +
01:05:02,940 --> 01:05:07,040
 +
working with mosquitoes you're working
 +
 +
1373
 +
01:05:04,170 --> 01:05:09,240
 +
with an ecology the DDT kills the fish
 +
 +
1374
 +
01:05:07,040 --> 01:05:11,130
 +
mosquitoes breed faster than the fish
 +
 +
1375
 +
01:05:09,240 --> 01:05:13,109
 +
the mosquitoes breed resistant strains
 +
 +
1376
 +
01:05:11,130 --> 01:05:15,119
 +
faster than the fish you wind up with
 +
 +
1377
 +
01:05:13,109 --> 01:05:17,339
 +
less fish and they were eating most of
 +
 +
1378
 +
01:05:15,119 --> 01:05:18,630
 +
the larvae of the mosquitoes and all of
 +
 +
1379
 +
01:05:17,339 --> 01:05:20,580
 +
a sudden you have more mosquitoes and
 +
 +
1380
 +
01:05:18,630 --> 01:05:23,220
 +
the DDT doesn't work anymore this is
 +
 +
1381
 +
01:05:20,580 --> 01:05:25,980
 +
what happens time after time because the
 +
 +
1382
 +
01:05:23,220 --> 01:05:27,359
 +
truth is is that we're involved in very
 +
 +
1383
 +
01:05:25,980 --> 01:05:29,250
 +
complex systems and you should be aware
 +
 +
1384
 +
01:05:27,359 --> 01:05:33,690
 +
of this I'm sure being in the banking
 +
 +
1385
 +
01:05:29,250 --> 01:05:34,920
 +
business it's nonlinear it's not
 +
 +
1386
 +
01:05:33,690 --> 01:05:36,510
 +
something that you can sit and turn a
 +
 +
1387
 +
01:05:34,920 --> 01:05:38,849
 +
couple of dots and know what's going to
 +
 +
1388
 +
01:05:36,510 --> 01:05:41,300
 +
happen like the Fed tries to do with the
 +
 +
1389
 +
01:05:38,849 --> 01:05:41,300
 +
economy
 +
 +
1390
 +
01:05:42,160 --> 01:05:47,960
 +
quality doesn't work three recent
 +
 +
1391
 +
01:05:45,830 --> 01:05:53,870
 +
winners of the Baldrige award General
 +
 +
1392
 +
01:05:47,960 --> 01:05:56,360
 +
Motors IBM and Dec why does equality
 +
 +
1393
 +
01:05:53,870 --> 01:05:58,460
 +
work because the only way you can get
 +
 +
1394
 +
01:05:56,360 --> 01:06:00,950
 +
Six Sigma good at something is to have
 +
 +
1395
 +
01:05:58,460 --> 01:06:02,510
 +
done it for a long time and in this
 +
 +
1396
 +
01:06:00,950 --> 01:06:05,570
 +
high-tech world that means you're
 +
 +
1397
 +
01:06:02,510 --> 01:06:07,640
 +
obsolete long before you ever get there
 +
 +
1398
 +
01:06:05,570 --> 01:06:09,850
 +
Bill Gates doesn't want Microsoft to
 +
 +
1399
 +
01:06:07,640 --> 01:06:12,230
 +
ever get Six Sigma good at what they do
 +
 +
1400
 +
01:06:09,850 --> 01:06:15,850
 +
that's not the thing what you have to be
 +
 +
1401
 +
01:06:12,230 --> 01:06:18,110
 +
is be fitted to the times as they are
 +
 +
1402
 +
01:06:15,850 --> 01:06:19,670
 +
not getting really you can only get
 +
 +
1403
 +
01:06:18,110 --> 01:06:20,860
 +
really great at something if it's not
 +
 +
1404
 +
01:06:19,670 --> 01:06:23,630
 +
going to change on you
 +
 +
1405
 +
01:06:20,860 --> 01:06:29,570
 +
so total quality management is a farce
 +
 +
1406
 +
01:06:23,630 --> 01:06:32,330
 +
in high tech arenas so coming back you
 +
 +
1407
 +
01:06:29,570 --> 01:06:33,860
 +
have to look at McLuhan again I don't
 +
 +
1408
 +
01:06:32,330 --> 01:06:36,200
 +
know who discovered water but it wasn't
 +
 +
1409
 +
01:06:33,860 --> 01:06:43,220
 +
a fish we have to try and make that work
 +
 +
1410
 +
01:06:36,200 --> 01:06:46,520
 +
for us this time I'm going to actually
 +
 +
1411
 +
01:06:43,220 --> 01:06:49,760
 +
going to skip over the video and just go
 +
 +
1412
 +
01:06:46,520 --> 01:06:52,730
 +
to this so the trick behind this stuff
 +
 +
1413
 +
01:06:49,760 --> 01:06:54,500
 +
is you can only learn to see when you
 +
 +
1414
 +
01:06:52,730 --> 01:06:58,730
 +
realize you're blind you have to admit
 +
 +
1415
 +
01:06:54,500 --> 01:07:00,370
 +
it this is what scientists do in order
 +
 +
1416
 +
01:06:58,730 --> 01:07:03,680
 +
to deal with science you have to ignore
 +
 +
1417
 +
01:07:00,370 --> 01:07:05,540
 +
what your hands tell you about touching
 +
 +
1418
 +
01:07:03,680 --> 01:07:08,420
 +
things what your eyes tell you about the
 +
 +
1419
 +
01:07:05,540 --> 01:07:10,820
 +
world and you have to try and dig deeper
 +
 +
1420
 +
01:07:08,420 --> 01:07:14,710
 +
than what your senses and common sense
 +
 +
1421
 +
01:07:10,820 --> 01:07:14,710
 +
are telling you it is really hard to do
 +
 +
1422
 +
01:07:15,220 --> 01:07:18,830
 +
so one of things you can do is you can
 +
 +
1423
 +
01:07:17,210 --> 01:07:23,660
 +
make a better goldfish ball this is what
 +
 +
1424
 +
01:07:18,830 --> 01:07:26,570
 +
Wells Fargo should do difference between
 +
 +
1425
 +
01:07:23,660 --> 01:07:28,100
 +
four hundred years ago coming out of the
 +
 +
1426
 +
01:07:26,570 --> 01:07:30,770
 +
Middle Ages and the Renaissance and now
 +
 +
1427
 +
01:07:28,100 --> 01:07:32,180
 +
is that we're now self-conscious about
 +
 +
1428
 +
01:07:30,770 --> 01:07:35,480
 +
these goldfish bowls and we can
 +
 +
1429
 +
01:07:32,180 --> 01:07:37,820
 +
structure them when you do something
 +
 +
1430
 +
01:07:35,480 --> 01:07:40,640
 +
like an programming language you're
 +
 +
1431
 +
01:07:37,820 --> 01:07:42,050
 +
making a goldfish bowl for people it's a
 +
 +
1432
 +
01:07:40,640 --> 01:07:45,140
 +
paradigm it's a collection of beliefs
 +
 +
1433
 +
01:07:42,050 --> 01:07:47,360
 +
it's a way of doing things these things
 +
 +
1434
 +
01:07:45,140 --> 01:07:48,980
 +
are incredibly powerful because of the
 +
 +
1435
 +
01:07:47,360 --> 01:07:51,350
 +
way our minds work we can't change the
 +
 +
1436
 +
01:07:48,980 --> 01:07:53,690
 +
way our minds work in any direct way but
 +
 +
1437
 +
01:07:51,350 --> 01:07:55,819
 +
we can change the context in which they
 +
 +
1438
 +
01:07:53,690 --> 01:07:59,970
 +
do work
 +
 +
1439
 +
01:07:55,819 --> 01:08:02,240
 +
we see what we know if you take most
 +
 +
1440
 +
01:07:59,970 --> 01:08:04,799
 +
people who did it drawing like this
 +
 +
1441
 +
01:08:02,240 --> 01:08:07,440
 +
would be thrown out of art class in fact
 +
 +
1442
 +
01:08:04,799 --> 01:08:09,299
 +
this person was this is what they did
 +
 +
1443
 +
01:08:07,440 --> 01:08:12,359
 +
after just a couple of months later a
 +
 +
1444
 +
01:08:09,299 --> 01:08:16,889
 +
self-portrait of themselves and this is
 +
 +
1445
 +
01:08:12,359 --> 01:08:19,859
 +
another portrait done by the person who
 +
 +
1446
 +
01:08:16,889 --> 01:08:23,159
 +
did this picture on the top after about
 +
 +
1447
 +
01:08:19,859 --> 01:08:26,790
 +
three months in fact you can become an
 +
 +
1448
 +
01:08:23,159 --> 01:08:30,659
 +
incredibly good artist in almost any
 +
 +
1449
 +
01:08:26,790 --> 01:08:32,370
 +
area in just a few months our ability to
 +
 +
1450
 +
01:08:30,659 --> 01:08:33,920
 +
learn things is much much greater than
 +
 +
1451
 +
01:08:32,370 --> 01:08:38,690
 +
we think
 +
 +
1452
 +
01:08:33,920 --> 01:08:40,679
 +
in fact most people are more ignorant
 +
 +
1453
 +
01:08:38,690 --> 01:08:42,359
 +
most people think of themselves as
 +
 +
1454
 +
01:08:40,679 --> 01:08:44,850
 +
stupid but they're actually smarter than
 +
 +
1455
 +
01:08:42,359 --> 01:08:46,199
 +
they think they are the problem is that
 +
 +
1456
 +
01:08:44,850 --> 01:08:49,500
 +
most people know less than they think
 +
 +
1457
 +
01:08:46,199 --> 01:08:51,210
 +
they do all right so we're constrained
 +
 +
1458
 +
01:08:49,500 --> 01:08:53,790
 +
much more by what we know about the
 +
 +
1459
 +
01:08:51,210 --> 01:08:56,310
 +
world than what our latent abilities are
 +
 +
1460
 +
01:08:53,790 --> 01:08:57,480
 +
we can make these multiple mentalities
 +
 +
1461
 +
01:08:56,310 --> 01:09:01,529
 +
which are always fighting each other
 +
 +
1462
 +
01:08:57,480 --> 01:09:04,259
 +
work for us for instance this is this is
 +
 +
1463
 +
01:09:01,529 --> 01:09:10,500
 +
sorry this is almost illegible but this
 +
 +
1464
 +
01:09:04,259 --> 01:09:11,969
 +
is a coherent essay a page long done by
 +
 +
1465
 +
01:09:10,500 --> 01:09:17,040
 +
a five-year-old and she'd only been
 +
 +
1466
 +
01:09:11,969 --> 01:09:20,730
 +
writing for about three months three or
 +
 +
1467
 +
01:09:17,040 --> 01:09:23,069
 +
four months of course second and third
 +
 +
1468
 +
01:09:20,730 --> 01:09:25,949
 +
graders often don't write very coherent
 +
 +
1469
 +
01:09:23,069 --> 01:09:27,779
 +
essays so how do how did the teacher get
 +
 +
1470
 +
01:09:25,949 --> 01:09:30,179
 +
her to write this coherent essays well
 +
 +
1471
 +
01:09:27,779 --> 01:09:32,969
 +
it happens that children especially
 +
 +
1472
 +
01:09:30,179 --> 01:09:35,370
 +
can't sequence symbolically the symbolic
 +
 +
1473
 +
01:09:32,969 --> 01:09:37,080
 +
part of their mind isn't set up for
 +
 +
1474
 +
01:09:35,370 --> 01:09:39,449
 +
sequencing but they can do really good
 +
 +
1475
 +
01:09:37,080 --> 01:09:41,699
 +
sequencing iconically so what the
 +
 +
1476
 +
01:09:39,449 --> 01:09:44,609
 +
teacher had the child do is to draw a
 +
 +
1477
 +
01:09:41,699 --> 01:09:47,190
 +
movie of the story she had in mind all
 +
 +
1478
 +
01:09:44,609 --> 01:09:48,839
 +
children even we've tested children down
 +
 +
1479
 +
01:09:47,190 --> 01:09:53,310
 +
to the age of even three and a half and
 +
 +
1480
 +
01:09:48,839 --> 01:09:54,860
 +
four can draw a coherent storyboards try
 +
 +
1481
 +
01:09:53,310 --> 01:09:57,060
 +
this with your children
 +
 +
1482
 +
01:09:54,860 --> 01:09:58,830
 +
you'll also notice something really
 +
 +
1483
 +
01:09:57,060 --> 01:10:00,300
 +
strange and wonderful when they're
 +
 +
1484
 +
01:09:58,830 --> 01:10:03,120
 +
drawing the storyboard they can draw
 +
 +
1485
 +
01:10:00,300 --> 01:10:05,489
 +
better than when they draw a regular
 +
 +
1486
 +
01:10:03,120 --> 01:10:07,840
 +
drawing there's something about the
 +
 +
1487
 +
01:10:05,489 --> 01:10:11,180
 +
focusing of it we still don't understand
 +
 +
1488
 +
01:10:07,840 --> 01:10:12,740
 +
then having done a coherent story board
 +
 +
1489
 +
01:10:11,180 --> 01:10:15,140
 +
over there the teacher then says write
 +
 +
1490
 +
01:10:12,740 --> 01:10:17,480
 +
one or two sentences about each of the
 +
 +
1491
 +
01:10:15,140 --> 01:10:19,100
 +
panels and when the child does that they
 +
 +
1492
 +
01:10:17,480 --> 01:10:21,080
 +
get a coherent essay that has a
 +
 +
1493
 +
01:10:19,100 --> 01:10:27,200
 +
beginning middle and end now is that
 +
 +
1494
 +
01:10:21,080 --> 01:10:29,380
 +
cheating is it I don't think so I mean
 +
 +
1495
 +
01:10:27,200 --> 01:10:32,840
 +
if that's cheating calculus is cheating
 +
 +
1496
 +
01:10:29,380 --> 01:10:36,230
 +
right the whole idea is we have to cheat
 +
 +
1497
 +
01:10:32,840 --> 01:10:40,130
 +
we're not smart enough not to get by
 +
 +
1498
 +
01:10:36,230 --> 01:10:47,260
 +
without finding these scaffolds we can
 +
 +
1499
 +
01:10:40,130 --> 01:10:47,260
 +
work our buns off in the wrong context
 +
 +
1500
 +
01:10:48,370 --> 01:10:55,280
 +
well three mentalities how about a way
 +
 +
1501
 +
01:10:51,770 --> 01:10:58,280
 +
of grabbing things for user-interface
 +
 +
1502
 +
01:10:55,280 --> 01:11:00,860
 +
how about a way of using our ability to
 +
 +
1503
 +
01:10:58,280 --> 01:11:03,770
 +
remember things in terms of images and
 +
 +
1504
 +
01:11:00,860 --> 01:11:05,690
 +
how about a way of dealing with symbolic
 +
 +
1505
 +
01:11:03,770 --> 01:11:06,850
 +
renderings of those things and if you
 +
 +
1506
 +
01:11:05,690 --> 01:11:10,670
 +
put those together
 +
 +
1507
 +
01:11:06,850 --> 01:11:12,140
 +
you get this machine in this interface
 +
 +
1508
 +
01:11:10,670 --> 01:11:14,540
 +
that's how it came about
 +
 +
1509
 +
01:11:12,140 --> 01:11:17,180
 +
we took a psychological model about the
 +
 +
1510
 +
01:11:14,540 --> 01:11:18,650
 +
way people actually seem to think spend
 +
 +
1511
 +
01:11:17,180 --> 01:11:21,020
 +
a couple of years trying to understand
 +
 +
1512
 +
01:11:18,650 --> 01:11:23,870
 +
it in the terms of communication between
 +
 +
1513
 +
01:11:21,020 --> 01:11:26,360
 +
human and machine and came up with a
 +
 +
1514
 +
01:11:23,870 --> 01:11:29,540
 +
much better way of doing a user
 +
 +
1515
 +
01:11:26,360 --> 01:11:35,270
 +
interface so the whole point here is
 +
 +
1516
 +
01:11:29,540 --> 01:11:36,710
 +
that by changing the context in which
 +
 +
1517
 +
01:11:35,270 --> 01:11:40,190
 +
you're in which you're thinking about
 +
 +
1518
 +
01:11:36,710 --> 01:11:41,810
 +
things you can change the results not in
 +
 +
1519
 +
01:11:40,190 --> 01:11:44,990
 +
quantitative ways but in qualitative
 +
 +
1520
 +
01:11:41,810 --> 01:11:48,020
 +
ways so the strongest weapon that you
 +
 +
1521
 +
01:11:44,990 --> 01:11:51,280
 +
have for exploring the future is the one
 +
 +
1522
 +
01:11:48,020 --> 01:11:54,400
 +
between your ears providing it's loaded
 +
 +
1523
 +
01:11:51,280 --> 01:11:54,400
 +
thank you
 +
 +
1524
 +
01:12:05,710 --> 01:12:11,260
 +
okay
 +
 +
1525
 +
01:12:07,960 --> 01:12:18,140
 +
now we have time for some some questions
 +
 +
1526
 +
01:12:11,260 --> 01:12:24,130
 +
and I love to answer questions so please
 +
 +
1527
 +
01:12:18,140 --> 01:12:24,130
 +
don't be shy yes
 +
 +
1528
 +
01:12:36,459 --> 01:12:42,519
 +
well I think I think everybody heard
 +
 +
1529
 +
01:12:39,159 --> 01:12:47,349
 +
that didn't they basically is saying
 +
 +
1530
 +
01:12:42,519 --> 01:12:49,570
 +
from experiences that I've had being on
 +
 +
1531
 +
01:12:47,349 --> 01:12:52,539
 +
advisory boards and so forth and talking
 +
 +
1532
 +
01:12:49,570 --> 01:12:53,320
 +
to large companies what mistakes do
 +
 +
1533
 +
01:12:52,539 --> 01:12:56,159
 +
people make
 +
 +
1534
 +
01:12:53,320 --> 01:12:59,880
 +
well mistake is the wrong word because
 +
 +
1535
 +
01:12:56,159 --> 01:13:05,170
 +
the it's very it's quite rare for
 +
 +
1536
 +
01:12:59,880 --> 01:13:07,059
 +
companies to actually make mistakes what
 +
 +
1537
 +
01:13:05,170 --> 01:13:10,599
 +
they do is to do things perfectly
 +
 +
1538
 +
01:13:07,059 --> 01:13:12,130
 +
logically in the wrong place right and
 +
 +
1539
 +
01:13:10,599 --> 01:13:15,939
 +
those aren't really mistakes they're
 +
 +
1540
 +
01:13:12,130 --> 01:13:18,570
 +
ill-chosen paths so the one of the major
 +
 +
1541
 +
01:13:15,939 --> 01:13:22,449
 +
things that companies don't do is to
 +
 +
1542
 +
01:13:18,570 --> 01:13:23,979
 +
even look at this country as a model
 +
 +
1543
 +
01:13:22,449 --> 01:13:28,780
 +
this country doesn't have zillions of
 +
 +
1544
 +
01:13:23,979 --> 01:13:31,300
 +
rules compared to say Germany it has a
 +
 +
1545
 +
01:13:28,780 --> 01:13:35,199
 +
constitution the constitution is kind of
 +
 +
1546
 +
01:13:31,300 --> 01:13:41,469
 +
the DNA and it's designed to provide
 +
 +
1547
 +
01:13:35,199 --> 01:13:44,769
 +
maximum diversity and still allow us to
 +
 +
1548
 +
01:13:41,469 --> 01:13:46,590
 +
argue with each other right science what
 +
 +
1549
 +
01:13:44,769 --> 01:13:50,709
 +
happened when science was invented is
 +
 +
1550
 +
01:13:46,590 --> 01:13:52,900
 +
people basically started saying this is
 +
 +
1551
 +
01:13:50,709 --> 01:13:56,650
 +
coming out of the 15th and 16th
 +
 +
1552
 +
01:13:52,900 --> 01:13:59,289
 +
centuries was saying when Galileo's
 +
 +
1553
 +
01:13:56,650 --> 01:14:02,439
 +
telescope showed the four moons of
 +
 +
1554
 +
01:13:59,289 --> 01:14:05,559
 +
Jupiter orbiting around a center in the
 +
 +
1555
 +
01:14:02,439 --> 01:14:09,969
 +
heavens that wasn't the earth it toppled
 +
 +
1556
 +
01:14:05,559 --> 01:14:12,939
 +
the church's cosmology because this was
 +
 +
1557
 +
01:14:09,969 --> 01:14:18,219
 +
dogma right this was actually the Word
 +
 +
1558
 +
01:14:12,939 --> 01:14:19,689
 +
of God that there was only one Center of
 +
 +
1559
 +
01:14:18,219 --> 01:14:22,119
 +
motion in the universe and that was the
 +
 +
1560
 +
01:14:19,689 --> 01:14:23,889
 +
earth so that was devastating basically
 +
 +
1561
 +
01:14:22,119 --> 01:14:26,139
 +
the the conclusion that people came from
 +
 +
1562
 +
01:14:23,889 --> 01:14:28,689
 +
that is we can't get involved in dogma
 +
 +
1563
 +
01:14:26,139 --> 01:14:30,550
 +
if we're going to get ahead the problem
 +
 +
1564
 +
01:14:28,689 --> 01:14:32,349
 +
is if you don't get involved in dogma
 +
 +
1565
 +
01:14:30,550 --> 01:14:35,229
 +
how can you do anything all right isn't
 +
 +
1566
 +
01:14:32,349 --> 01:14:37,989
 +
everybody's opinion the same right so
 +
 +
1567
 +
01:14:35,229 --> 01:14:39,459
 +
this is misplaced democracy everybody's
 +
 +
1568
 +
01:14:37,989 --> 01:14:41,110
 +
opinion is say no everybody's opinion
 +
 +
1569
 +
01:14:39,459 --> 01:14:42,939
 +
isn't the same so how do you resolve
 +
 +
1570
 +
01:14:41,110 --> 01:14:45,729
 +
that the way he resolved it is setting
 +
 +
1571
 +
01:14:42,939 --> 01:14:48,070
 +
up a system for argument science is a
 +
 +
1572
 +
01:14:45,729 --> 01:14:49,809
 +
system for argument as Richard Feynman
 +
 +
1573
 +
01:14:48,070 --> 01:14:50,230
 +
likes to say science means you don't
 +
 +
1574
 +
01:14:49,809 --> 01:14:53,320
 +
have to
 +
 +
1575
 +
01:14:50,230 --> 01:14:56,310
 +
trust the experts right because there's
 +
 +
1576
 +
01:14:53,320 --> 01:15:00,370
 +
no scientific claim that you can't test
 +
 +
1577
 +
01:14:56,310 --> 01:15:02,680
 +
you don't have to believe anybody but if
 +
 +
1578
 +
01:15:00,370 --> 01:15:05,380
 +
you want to play in science you have to
 +
 +
1579
 +
01:15:02,680 --> 01:15:07,630
 +
be tough on the argument so what most
 +
 +
1580
 +
01:15:05,380 --> 01:15:10,750
 +
companies don't do is to set up a
 +
 +
1581
 +
01:15:07,630 --> 01:15:12,130
 +
situation where they can argue well most
 +
 +
1582
 +
01:15:10,750 --> 01:15:15,600
 +
companies are terrible at arguing
 +
 +
1583
 +
01:15:12,130 --> 01:15:18,100
 +
because they take arguing personally
 +
 +
1584
 +
01:15:15,600 --> 01:15:20,110
 +
right and that is no case and so what
 +
 +
1585
 +
01:15:18,100 --> 01:15:23,350
 +
you get is party lines and dogma and all
 +
 +
1586
 +
01:15:20,110 --> 01:15:24,610
 +
that the paraphernalia of the past what
 +
 +
1587
 +
01:15:23,350 --> 01:15:28,660
 +
you need to do is to have a way of
 +
 +
1588
 +
01:15:24,610 --> 01:15:30,130
 +
separating out personalities from the
 +
 +
1589
 +
01:15:28,660 --> 01:15:32,020
 +
fact that there are very difficult
 +
 +
1590
 +
01:15:30,130 --> 01:15:34,720
 +
issues that need to be feared long and
 +
 +
1591
 +
01:15:32,020 --> 01:15:36,790
 +
hard and they have to be taken down to
 +
 +
1592
 +
01:15:34,720 --> 01:15:38,890
 +
the essence or else you're just going to
 +
 +
1593
 +
01:15:36,790 --> 01:15:41,500
 +
get another wave another five year plan
 +
 +
1594
 +
01:15:38,890 --> 01:15:43,630
 +
like the Russians used to do yielding
 +
 +
1595
 +
01:15:41,500 --> 01:15:45,850
 +
nothing because they refuse to look at
 +
 +
1596
 +
01:15:43,630 --> 01:15:48,640
 +
the basis of Marxism and ask whether
 +
 +
1597
 +
01:15:45,850 --> 01:15:49,930
 +
there was anything there or not right so
 +
 +
1598
 +
01:15:48,640 --> 01:15:52,630
 +
I think the thing is is to try and
 +
 +
1599
 +
01:15:49,930 --> 01:15:54,850
 +
convert from a dogmatic hierarchical
 +
 +
1600
 +
01:15:52,630 --> 01:15:56,940
 +
system because if you think about
 +
 +
1601
 +
01:15:54,850 --> 01:16:00,610
 +
American businesses are distressingly
 +
 +
1602
 +
01:15:56,940 --> 01:16:02,050
 +
undemocratic fact I think of them as
 +
 +
1603
 +
01:16:00,610 --> 01:16:07,600
 +
being like hunting and gathering
 +
 +
1604
 +
01:16:02,050 --> 01:16:09,130
 +
societies as compared to agriculture my
 +
 +
1605
 +
01:16:07,600 --> 01:16:11,100
 +
American businesses try to put their
 +
 +
1606
 +
01:16:09,130 --> 01:16:15,489
 +
competitors out of business
 +
 +
1607
 +
01:16:11,100 --> 01:16:17,170
 +
whereas farmers never do why because a
 +
 +
1608
 +
01:16:15,489 --> 01:16:19,780
 +
farmer needs all the other farmers to
 +
 +
1609
 +
01:16:17,170 --> 01:16:22,060
 +
come help him build his barn so farmers
 +
 +
1610
 +
01:16:19,780 --> 01:16:24,370
 +
do limited competition on Saturdays they
 +
 +
1611
 +
01:16:22,060 --> 01:16:25,510
 +
go out and help each other on Tuesdays
 +
 +
1612
 +
01:16:24,370 --> 01:16:27,940
 +
and they spend the rest of the time
 +
 +
1613
 +
01:16:25,510 --> 01:16:29,560
 +
trying to get their farm going a lot so
 +
 +
1614
 +
01:16:27,940 --> 01:16:31,150
 +
a lot of agricultural metaphors have
 +
 +
1615
 +
01:16:29,560 --> 01:16:33,610
 +
never come into business in any strong
 +
 +
1616
 +
01:16:31,150 --> 01:16:35,200
 +
way one of the ones I used at lunch is
 +
 +
1617
 +
01:16:33,610 --> 01:16:37,120
 +
an agriculture you need to let your
 +
 +
1618
 +
01:16:35,200 --> 01:16:39,130
 +
fields even in the Bible it says let
 +
 +
1619
 +
01:16:37,120 --> 01:16:42,580
 +
your fields lie fallow one year and
 +
 +
1620
 +
01:16:39,130 --> 01:16:45,280
 +
seven that means you're giving up 14
 +
 +
1621
 +
01:16:42,580 --> 01:16:47,920
 +
percent of your return in order to be
 +
 +
1622
 +
01:16:45,280 --> 01:16:50,890
 +
there 20 years from now right that's a
 +
 +
1623
 +
01:16:47,920 --> 01:16:53,500
 +
research budget 14 percent that's what
 +
 +
1624
 +
01:16:50,890 --> 01:16:54,910
 +
it means American businesses can't
 +
 +
1625
 +
01:16:53,500 --> 01:16:57,460
 +
understand they're always top soil
 +
 +
1626
 +
01:16:54,910 --> 01:16:59,440
 +
stripping and what do you get when you
 +
 +
1627
 +
01:16:57,460 --> 01:17:01,770
 +
topsoil strip you get a Dust Bowl and
 +
 +
1628
 +
01:16:59,440 --> 01:17:04,480
 +
that is what we have got
 +
 +
1629
 +
01:17:01,770 --> 01:17:06,880
 +
so the only way these changes can happen
 +
 +
1630
 +
01:17:04,480 --> 01:17:11,110
 +
is if the reward system has to be
 +
 +
1631
 +
01:17:06,880 --> 01:17:14,410
 +
changed by the top-most management to
 +
 +
1632
 +
01:17:11,110 --> 01:17:18,180
 +
investing some part in the future in a
 +
 +
1633
 +
01:17:14,410 --> 01:17:21,719
 +
serious way not in a token nice way and
 +
 +
1634
 +
01:17:18,180 --> 01:17:25,680
 +
to I believe that people will not change
 +
 +
1635
 +
01:17:21,719 --> 01:17:29,199
 +
unless there is some reward for failure
 +
 +
1636
 +
01:17:25,680 --> 01:17:32,920
 +
tell you a funny story I was I gave a
 +
 +
1637
 +
01:17:29,199 --> 01:17:35,590
 +
talk at the Stanford 25th anniversary of
 +
 +
1638
 +
01:17:32,920 --> 01:17:38,980
 +
computer science and there 75 Silicon
 +
 +
1639
 +
01:17:35,590 --> 01:17:43,120
 +
Valley companies in the room and I was
 +
 +
1640
 +
01:17:38,980 --> 01:17:44,350
 +
talking about told the story at Xerox
 +
 +
1641
 +
01:17:43,120 --> 01:17:46,510
 +
PARC when I when I first did the
 +
 +
1642
 +
01:17:44,350 --> 01:17:49,260
 +
overlapping window interface I use a
 +
 +
1643
 +
01:17:46,510 --> 01:17:52,690
 +
demo up to various Xerox executives and
 +
 +
1644
 +
01:17:49,260 --> 01:17:54,219
 +
one guy I went shoe and showed how the
 +
 +
1645
 +
01:17:52,690 --> 01:17:57,340
 +
windows came up and this is so much
 +
 +
1646
 +
01:17:54,219 --> 01:18:00,219
 +
easier and expands the effective area of
 +
 +
1647
 +
01:17:57,340 --> 01:18:01,960
 +
the display and this and that blah blah
 +