Difference between revisions of "An interview with Alan Kay for at XT 20 Conference"

Latest revision as of 22:52, 3 November 2023

something you mentioned there was that the

park of the methodologies behind

Park came out of or was a descendant of the

methodologies around radar yeah the

in a radar happened because of

a developing very very critical situation where

the the

chips are down the evening that this is in

in the 1939 when no better

than how it worked at all okay now what

actually happened was that in 1933

when the UK

was very

isolationist and worse and

that was the baldwin

government but followed by the chamberlain government

so they were not interested

in doing anything it was actually a scientist Henry Tizard

who was alarmed by Hitler coming

to power in 1933 and on his

own hook started he

a physicist and he started talking to other physicists

and people in electronics first asking

for a death ray like in War

of the Worlds and they calculated

that would take too much power death ray

meaning could you boil some something organic

in a plane at a distance and

the answer is no there's too much power but on the other hand there

have been things in the 20s and we

are certain even

though the return is so faint that we should be able to bounce

microwaves off objects

and be able to detect how far away

they are and so forth and that's how it started it was

done completely on the hook had

nothing to do with politicians or anything

because they had a party line and everything but the

ahead because that's the job of science is

to look ahead and to take a deal with the Invisibles

and so

a remarkable series of events happen besides the

inventions that they did they

were able to convince below

the top levels of the government to start funding this thing

that became known as the chain home system which

is a ring of radar stations going

all the way from the north of Scotland all

the way down through the South of England I

think there may be as many as 180

or 190 of these and

so by the time the

Germans decided to try and fly over the channel

this system that had been done long

before anybody in power wanted it

was operational and detected

the planes and the RAF

Spitfires and hurricanes were scrambled and

a few days

later the Battle of Britain have been won

by the UK not by the Germans and of

course the big deal about radar was not even

you know the Germans shifted tonight flying and

the famous taffy Bo and

invented airborne radar

and so night fighters were

invented to deal with the night bombers and so forth but the

big deal about radar was that it was the

dominant technology that won World War two for the Allies

not just for planes but primarily

for submarines and the

goal of radar the radar research

all of this was going on was to be able to detect even

periscopes sticking up

and so it's a great story and

the one

of the key issues on it was

the British government once they had it wanted to negotiate

with the Americans who had the

manufacturing capacity where this stuff

and hairy-chested said no no let us not do that let us just give everything

we know including the atomic secrets we

have let's just give everything to the Americans and let's rely on their

goodwill and so that is what has

happened there was a famous plane flight with a famous briefcase

that had the most important technological

invention of World War two the cavity magnetron

which allowed practical high-power

small wavelength

radar to be done that was carried in

this briefcase it was just given to the Americans

and within a week Bell Labs had made

fifteen of them and

some of the Brits like taffy Bowen stayed

in the United States to set up to the grad lab at

MIT and the

rad lab at MIT did designed more

than 180 different radar

systems this is in three and a half years of of

the war and these were all manufactured

by the companies around Boston through

128 companies and distributed by the hundreds

of thousands all over the world

as small as fighter planes as large as coastal

installations and everything in between all done

by a group of about three or four thousand people

in building 20 at MIT in

three and a half years so this is one of the great stories

of all times and of

the people who worked in the rad lab nine of them became

Nobel Prize winners later and

none of them enduring the work at the rad

lab we're working on the stuff that earned them the Nobel Prize they

were they put aside their physics hats to

do physical engineering on

behalf of this much larger cause this

is a great story and it's something

that everybody in government should

not only know

about it but have their nose rubbed in it and the

other part of it is to take a look at

the the

aftermath which

of a terrible war but

the aftermath of that war was that industrial

capacity and industrial wave

methodology the

level of inventions and every other kind of thing

had been boosted in a way that was

not happening incrementally and so

after World War two there was an

essentially a whole new engineering and a holding an industrial

revolution based on everything

was learned there and by the

way it was happening over here except

he combination of the government the bankers and

the academics could not cooperate

so this

country was leading in computing all the way

up to the early 60s both

in hardware and software was ahead

of the Americans by perhaps five years or

so and all of that got blown by

the different

priorities and different levels of understanding that existed

here and we were the benefit of it because I went to half

literally half the graduate students I went to

grad school within the 60s were from the UK

and from France which had had its own way of self-destruction

and so we got this

fabulous group of talented

PhD students who came over to the US because

ARPA was funding a

lot of important stuff and in

a way it never came back over here except as

goods to be sold

so I'd like to just ask

a question on the subject of cooperation

between let's call it politicians

community I mean if somebody's I've lived

in the UK most of my life and my

impression is that there has been quite a lot of

distrust between politicians and scientists here even

a kind of that politicians would hold

even the language that's used to describe

scientists as boffins and techie

artists exactly the problem is that

the you

know it's in a way it's worse here

we have our own problem with basically in

the US and here pretty much the

only elites that are allowed and admired

by a wide part of society are

sports heroes right

place where people can be better than ordinary and

people are happy about it but

over here we have the

two cultures and he was not talking about

working class culture at all he was talking about the

latter's culture and the science culture

in the high level universities here ya know and

that is a huge problem because

of sinking stone pointed out it

is far more likely for a scientist

to know quite a bit about Shakespeare he and it

is for Shakespeare specialists know anything of all about

silence yes and then it said certainly in

Europe politicians or certainly in the

UK politicians have generally been drawn from the

Arts side rather the science side so

the huge exception of course

recently was Andrea

Merkel who

has a PhD in physics and is

few heads of state who can actually understand the

dynamics of a contagion

like kovat 19

and she laid it into Germany

a couple of days ago of pointing out that

it could very well be 50 to 70 percent

infected which is actually

what the epidemiologists in the United States

think and this is incredibly

inconvenient for people

trying to make money and people trying to do that and

like Al Gore said

in his book an inconvenient truth about the climate problem

people who don't have the imagination understand

the consequences try to sweep it under the

rug like president Trempealeau poses

will go away he claims it will

go away but it's not going to go away so what's what's

in this paper I wrote for the Ellen

MacArthur Foundation one of the main

points was the only time when

regular people are willing to call on the

boffins and is when they're deathly afraid of

something and

often the boffins have been working away anyway

because part of the deal of being

of Zionists of looking ahead so they

are often already working on it but yeah so

you had in the 30s the

enough people got worried

about what was happening in Germany to get

the radar stuff going and to get

a Bletchley Park

going in the u.s. it's not

wasn't any better except Roosevelt president Roosevelt

was for

helping the the

UK but Congress wasn't Congress

was not interested in doing

anything that wasn't an investment

in a possibility of a war so

it happened in the u.s. maybe in typical US

fashion that a very smart guy who

had made the equivalent of billions today

by

understanding how the Depression was going to go

he converted everything into gold right

before the depression happened and then bought

at the bottom and

so but as a recovery happened he got richer

and richer he happened to be an excellent amateur

scientist to the point that he was eventually elected to

the National Academy of Sciences and on with

is own money he set up a huge insulation called Tuxedo

Park so this is the American

side also going on in the 30s he invented many

of the navigational aids that

are still in use today make more money

on those but he was especially interested in radar

and so when this thing started

happening the government was still allow yeah

eventually get around to funding something at MIT

and this guy Alfred Loomis said well the heck with

that I'll just fund it but he just stepped in

and funded the whole start of everything and

was great for any it was anyway

another part of this really interesting radar

story pretty much nobody whose

job it was to to do

something reasonable did their job

reasonably was done by

people who weren't in a better

imagine what was going to have and

some of them had means to start making things

happen so so the ARPA Park thing

Xerox was

one of the ARPA projects it

was just that by the time Matt was set up

for another set of reasons the

DoD had been shut down from doing

kind of research funding that they were doing and ARPA

got changed to DARPA the Charter

got changed the kind of projects they could fund got changed

and so finding Xerox

as a funder was the goal of one

of the original orbit Arbor funders who was afraid that the work

wasn't going to get done and it needed about half

of it had been done at eight years of it have been done and he

thought another five to six years

could finish off the whole deal that

turned out to be the case and a lot of that remaining

five years was funded by Xerox you

were about

in your in your preprint

about the imagination required that

imagination of catastrophe and one of the problems with

climate changes the human blindness to actually seeing and

imagining was that know it

so again the climate thing

no we again there's a sallied

ISM thing but what most most people

don't get about science it is actually qualitatively different than

normal human reasoning and normal

human ways of looking at the world is qualitatively different

it's not like a better version of what

Kay people used to do yeah it's a whole new

deal but it almost anybody can learn how to do

it the problem is most people don't learn how to do

it and the educational institutions

have not taken it seriously as

something that young children should learn how to do it's

an epistemological thing it's a world view kind of

thing so it is most easily learned

by most people when they're children if you

don't learn them when you're a child you are faced with something

much more difficult than learning a foreign language when

you're older but what the way the

true about climate is this that

Caltech scientists

in the early late 50s invented

the apparatus needed to really

accurately measure the co2 in the atmosphere

that was started in 57

by 1962

enough careful measurements

have been taken to show that not only was it increasing

but it was increasing exponentially the National Science

Foundation of the u.s. issued a

warning saying we are

going to be in complete trouble in about 50

years if this isn't taken

care of immediately so

the way I counted that was like 57

or 58 years ago and

no sciences job

is to make the Invisibles more visible

people we are all going scientists

are blind but we can make instruments and we

can make measurement ways of

modeling things that extend what

we can't do without them that's the

whole point here so the things they're starting to talk

now like carbon tax well it's way too late what

people don't realize is respect to the climate we are right

in the middle of a war we have been

invaded it's not a question of the enemy

being over here or being small it's

invisible to most people they can't see it and

nobody is taking it seriously yet

same thing and you probably

are aware that among various degrees I

picked up in my misspent youth besides one

in in math and the computing ones there's one

in molecular biology so if we switch over

to biology

every and I think every every

scientist in the physical sciences and certainly

the biologists have been warning for

decades about

the

certainties of Panda

make deadly pandemics

there is nothing new here there's nothing surprising

about coronavirus in any way to

any scientist nothing it's

just the details but

that it's even a respiratory disease

is not surprising because we've had SARS and

MERS already we were lucky

with SARS because even though it was really deadly

and MERS also they're

not very contagious so

but the whole point of

doing this stuff ahead of time is to get is

to take the imagination that science

is able to do pretty darn accurately for instance with

regard to the climate there was just a recent

study that looked at the 30 main supercomputer

simulations starting back

right before the 70s so

a supercomputer back then was about

200,000 times less capable

in an iPhone 6 but

supercomputers compared to the other computers but every

single one of the climate simulations starting

back then run and

looking at what they predicted back then to what has happened

today the worst one was only off by a couple of couple

of percent the

ones we can do today are much more

accurate and much more detailed but

there's never been a time

once the detection

of the greenhouse gas increases that

scientists haven't been able to imagine this

disaster never so

you could imagine you know I'm sounding frustrated

right but yeah the inmates are running the

asylum here and they're going

to suffer that that faith I think there's a good

chance that major parts of

the ecosystems on the planet are going to be toppled

and one of the one

of the things I do in Cox often is I bring in a coke

bottle and set

up the normal way I pointed well you can poke at it a little bit

and it'll come back but if you turn the coke bottle

and stand it up on its neck just a little

poke will topple it over and now imagine the difference

in the amount of work that has to be done between what

it took the top lit and to put it right-side up and

what if the toppling rolls it off the table now think

of how much work has to be done so these are the

kinds of things and the same thing is true with covin

the big problem with these viruses

is what most people can't see

so they are reacting to the tip of an iceberg

the scientists were reacting to the fact that

there were going to be icebergs so these

are these warnings 20 years ago people are reacting

to the tip of the iceberg but science knows

estimate the mass of the part of the iceberg you can't see

and similarly there are models that can take what

you can see and find

good estimates of what's actually going on which

is usually about a factor of 15 or 20 more

infections than have actually been shown up

both the US and the UK have

essentially been I would

call it scandalous at not testing

like in the whole US there have only

been five thousand tests administered so far and

maybe proportionately only that in the UK

I don't know I haven't been tracking it every day but this

is like crazy because how else are they going to be able to

estimate what kinds of emergency

measures have to happen the other thing in the UK

is that UK for instance

compared to the US the UK has 1/7

the available hospital beds per capita

1/7 and I

believe the UK is almost the worst country

in Europe as far as hospital beds

available per capita

don't we go to Washington the state of Washington

they're taking care of people out in the hallways

because they got swamped anyway

so the Chinese got started a

little bit slow but then they they have man to

shut the thing down now it

may not happen here reason there's a thing

called the pandemic is because

other countries didn't act as

soon as the chosen up in China anybody

with half a brain would shut

everything down because of course

it's going to spread and especially if it's viable

for days on surfaces like the

corona virus is that means

you don't have to be sneezed on to get

it means people can carry it around for days and their hands and transfer

it and so that's that's

the recipe and there are plenty of models that will tell you exactly

what's going to happen and those models are being

right but you know it's a Pyrrhic victory isn't it

yeah of course the models are right so

so these things are very frustrating

to scientists and they awry

they are one of the causes

of the friction between scientists and politicians

because they in general

you know except for somebody like Al Gore

who was a perfect guy

he was really interested in the stuff he did his homework

he liked scientists he

interested in what science was saying about the climate he was concerned

so he was a big exception

to that but you know most politicians find

you know treat scientists

as Cassandra was treated and

you would think that the letters people over

here would actually know that story wouldn't you

I

mean it's the it's in

the Iliad right there Cassandra was telling

them what was going to happen and they didn't like what she was saying

so they just ignored her even warned them

about the Trojan horse so so

that is one of those stories from antiquity that shows where

roughly the same species we always work which

is that we project our own beliefs onto the world rather

trying to find out what the world actually is so

this is a huge problem and of course business is

its

main problem is its goals are too small

like living in the twentieth century and if

your goal is just to make money you're

in real trouble and you're likely to mess

things up for other people as well that's

way off being

century like in American businesses

basically like hunters and gatherers a hundred thousand

years ago there's a lush Valley

we have instincts to go exploit

the things in the lush Valley and when we deplete the value

there's another Valley the valleys right now we're

created by all of these scientists that nobody wants to fund anymore

and the

businesses don't even think about where this stuff comes

from they're just trying to make money off it and

none of the billionaire's I know

happen putting

out big funding even in their own companies

for the kinds of research that

gave them the technologies in

place so I find that the

level of blindness and blindness

has a kind of arrogance that goes along with it

because it's a kind of a blundering

arrogance oh yeah

so you

know if you turn it around look at the plus side

of the thing the people

who did these eight and a half inventions just at

counting the one the other ones that are padded

the most

of those eight and a half inventions were done by

a grand total of 25 PhDs or PhD

equivalents was cheap cost

hardly anything well

I did a calculation

recently of

let's see what it wasn't it was

companies

tend

to you know tend to allocate maybe 5

to 10% for Rd 10% of their

revenue and so

if you take that and

investments theory says you should invest a small amount

of what you're investing in high-risk

high-return things so that's kind

of the kind of research that we did so

let's say one to five percent of the

five to ten percent and

so I took those figures

for what would it take to do a Xerox PARC and

I took the low ones I took five percent for

Rd and 1% of that for Mad Money and

that level and

multiplied back out gave the

top 63 fortune 500 companies

so they could afford it in a shot and if

you took the larger percentages of investment

it went to the top 600

fortune 500 companies so we're

talking about Stanford as far as government's go we're talking about nothing

here you're talking about fingernail clippings

money that is wasted so

the coming up with the money is really

easy why don't people want to spend it and the answer

is because they're more

than always more than one reason one good one is

the

people who are responsible for this money feel

like they should have some control of the process

right because we're used to top-down processes

about it people who spent their lives making money

or winding up controlling money have not spent their

lives doing science so they are

the last people who should ever be put in charge of deciding

goals and there

is a famous effort

over here to match up to our club before and to

the Japanese fifth generation in the 80s called Alvey

you guys are all too young to remember that but

you can read the documents of what happened

in the end they could not bring themselves to

fund fund the way ARPA funded

instead they democratized it

and spread it around and that is not

the way you get David Beckham

on was it Manchester United

now if you want to put together a championship

team don't spread the money around

at the same time Europe

did a

similar effort called Alvie

that was called a spree Alvie

over here is pretty over-the-air both of these were

complete busts and the current EU

version which is

money monetarily wise is

it was a really good idea which is they have have had matching

funds for R&D for companies

in Europe for years almost nothing has

come of these things because the EU

has retained the prerogative

of deciding what the projects are and the

important thing there is in this far out research

is problem finding and part

of the funding Arco spent probably 40% of its entire

budget funding problem finding

for which there is no result at all

except people would occasionally say

oh now I know what I want to work on right

and that doesn't trickle out except in

wartime or a cold war time to something that

especially the public they don't understand any

of this stuff right what they understand

is somebody being given a task and their job is to do that this

the way it works so we're talking about this crazy thing

where there's almost infinities of money available

ironically a lot

of it from these inventions that we did in the 60s and 70s but

nobody will put it back out

because they don't want to move from hunting and gathering to even

in bending agriculture in agriculture

has this idea that you have to renew the land

because you're more or less permanently settled

right and even the Bible

loud has a famous

thing in there where you should leave your fields fallow one

year and seven so they can recover so

14 percent and that's a very good R&D budget

it's that 14% you're not

using for day-to-day stuff

that is going to allow you to be around and prosper

a hundred years from now yes today

about are you positive about the future Allen

I mean one thing I looked up with the current

situation it was there that there

was one little thing that was heard on the news that the politicians

were saying we're doing everything the scientists are

telling us to do which was remarkable

you've never heard yeah yes that's

a just at least on the US that's completely wrong

yeah yeah well they're not doing

they may be saying that but yeah

yeah you again but there was an it was

an interesting thing to hear nonetheless

and I was wondering whether because there's not an election

coming up in the UK and this thing is developing so quick

so that there isn't that that kind of concern for politicians

about losing their seats or doing something that is

politically unpalatable whether that was or all maybe

weather coded itself would would be a

demonstration of a meeting if it's

successfully contained which is probably not gonna

happen now but the showcase of what happens when you do listen

scientists I mean I'm trying to search for very few

positives in a sea of negatives yeah

but nobody who

you know nobody who's a research

scientist is other than

an optimist you know

we like to work on hard problems and

we don't expect to

you

working on the fringe I forget what

what's a good batting average in cricket

it's like

50 similar

to baseball I think so

what that means is 65% of the the

time something not

desired happens so it looks

like terrible failure but in baseball certainly

and I'm sure in cricket that

is considered to be overhead for trying

to do something really difficult though

an error in baseball is not catching a fly ball that's

technique you should be able to you

know in baseball you're supposed to catch 98 or 99 percent of

the time successfully because it's mirror

technique it's something you can get good at but

nobody can get good at being

so SEC's successful create creatively

because

the good thing is much less probable

than the millions of bad things right

it's a special or it's like life compared to

all of the organizations of exactly the same chemicals

that are not alive there are trillions and trillions of

ways of not having in a live thing from exactly

the same chemicals in exactly the same proportions

so so the way this thing

works is yeah people are very optimistic about

their process

what they usually measure themselves on is

not percentage of results

so if you get 0 you

need to think about a different field but

what they measure themselves is on the quality of the effort and

the way the thing works out with the amount

of method that's available now a

very high quality of effort by high quality people

is going to generate trillions

of dollars or pounds of

additional wealth and can

also deal with some of the problems created

by people who lack imagination and have

been polluting the planet for

the last 150 years or so yeah

so you know if you ask me whether I'm optimistic

about the human race

I never have been but

I've spent most of my life trying to move

education into a place where it can do much more with

children than the imaginations of most parents

and governments children can do

a lot more along these lines than

parents and governments and/or their teachers really

want them to because all of these things are different

from what the parents teachers and governments

are comfortable with so they're

these comfort zone issues and these issues of convenience

and inconvenience are the ones that

wind up taking small problems

into enormous problems maybe intractable problems

and that is a that is one of the

many tragedies that is inherent to our species

it's like irony you know Americans

don't really get irony but

my father was an Australian and he loved British

culture so I was schooled in irony early on but

the thing he pointed out to me about irony

he is a little bit of it as humorous

but deep ironies are usually tragic

right and so

one of the ones were just seeing

now is for instance Biogen

which is a company in Cambridge Mass of

full of biologists

physicians they do neuro physiological

stuff but still they know all of this

stuff nevertheless they decided to have their

yearly conference they

are in-game 'bridge massed and they were

the center of the outbreak in Boston right now

you know and another one

of these tragic ironies is you may not be aware of

it but somewhere between 200,000

and 300,000 people each year in the

u.s. die is the result of diseases

transmitted by physicians

not being careful about sepsis

probably over here too

but they have the gloves on

they say oh I we don't I don't worry

getting infected but what they're doing is carrying

stuff on their gloves all over the place and

like I say as many people now in the US

has died from smoking died because the physicians

in the hospitals have infected them so

this is irony but it's it's the tragedy

of the human race that

we can't educate

the children to

more aware of these things that are invisible

and to be able to think

about them without being fearful so

it's just like teaching a child about a big dog

teaching a child about automobiles in the

street you want to be afraid of an automobile

but you don't want to think you're

impervious right so that this kind of elementary

training of what you might call epistemological perspectives

that are demanded in the 21st century is

not being done

so all of the worries are about vocational

things in the US and

maybe over here also and that's completely missing the point because

the learning to program a computer

is not going to invent you the Internet

not even close the internet

was invented as part of a large project to

help people learn to think better

and to cooperate better

as part of his lofty goal it was humanistic

that was such a grand vision

that people who are scientists and technologists

just loved the idea of working on this

thing and we were able to pull it off after about 14 years of

you

Difference between revisions of "An interview with Alan Kay for at XT 20 Conference"

Latest revision as of 22:52, 3 November 2023

Navigation menu

Personal tools

Namespaces

Variants

Views

More

Search

Tool box

Tools

@@ Line 6: / Line 6: @@
 |autoresize=true
 }}
+<subtitle id="0:0:6">something you mentioned there was that the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:9"> park of the methodologies behind</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:12"> Park came out of or was a descendant of the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:15"> methodologies around radar yeah the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:18"> in a radar happened because of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:21"> a developing very very critical situation where</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:24"> the the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:27"> chips are down the evening that this is in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:30"> in the 1939 when no better</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:33"> than how it worked at all okay now what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:36"> actually happened was that in 1933</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:39"> when the UK</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:42"> was very</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:45"> isolationist and worse and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:48"> that was the baldwin</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:51">government but followed by the chamberlain government</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:54"> so they were not interested</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:57"> in doing anything it was actually a scientist Henry Tizard</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:0"> who was alarmed by Hitler coming</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:3"> to power in 1933 and on his</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:6"> own hook started he</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:9">a physicist and he started talking to other physicists</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:12"> and people in electronics first asking</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:15"> for a death ray like in War</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:18"> of the Worlds and they calculated</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:21"> that would take too much power death ray</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:24"> meaning could you boil some something organic</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:27"> in a plane at a distance and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:30"> the answer is no there's too much power but on the other hand there</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:33"> have been things in the 20s and we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:36"> are certain even</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:39"> though the return is so faint that we should be able to bounce</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:42"> microwaves off objects</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:45"> and be able to detect how far away</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:48"> they are and so forth and that's how it started it was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:51"> done completely on the hook had</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:54"> nothing to do with politicians or anything</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:57">because they had a party line and everything but the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:0">ahead because that's the job of science is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:3"> to look ahead and to take a deal with the Invisibles</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:6"> and so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:9"> a remarkable series of events happen besides the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:12"> inventions that they did they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:15"> were able to convince below</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:18"> the top levels of the government to start funding this thing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:21"> that became known as the chain home system which</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:24"> is a ring of radar stations going</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:27"> all the way from the north of Scotland all</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:30"> the way down through the South of England I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:33"> think there may be as many as 180</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:36"> or 190 of these and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:39"> so by the time the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:42"> Germans decided to try and fly over the channel</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:45"> this system that had been done long</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:48"> before anybody in power wanted it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:51"> was operational and detected</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:54"> the planes and the RAF</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:57"> Spitfires and hurricanes were scrambled and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:0"> a few days</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:3"> later the Battle of Britain have been won</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:6"> by the UK not by the Germans and of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:9"> course the big deal about radar was not even</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:12">you know the Germans shifted tonight flying and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:15"> the famous taffy Bo and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:18"> invented airborne radar</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:21"> and so night fighters were</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:24"> invented to deal with the night bombers and so forth but the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:27"> big deal about radar was that it was the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:30">dominant technology that won World War two for the Allies</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:33"> not just for planes but primarily</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:36"> for submarines and the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:39"> goal of radar the radar research</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:42">all of this was going on was to be able to detect even</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:45"> periscopes sticking up</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:48"> and so it's a great story and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:51"> the one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:54"> of the key issues on it was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:57"> the British government once they had it wanted to negotiate</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:0"> with the Americans who had the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:3"> manufacturing capacity where this stuff</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:6">and hairy-chested said no no let us not do that let us just give everything</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:9"> we know including the atomic secrets we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:12">have let's just give everything to the Americans and let's rely on their</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:15"> goodwill and so that is what has</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:18">happened there was a famous plane flight with a famous briefcase</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:21"> that had the most important technological</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:24"> invention of World War two the cavity magnetron</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:27"> which allowed practical high-power</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:30"> small wavelength</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:33"> radar to be done that was carried in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:36"> this briefcase it was just given to the Americans</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:39"> and within a week Bell Labs had made</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:42"> fifteen of them and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:45"> some of the Brits like taffy Bowen stayed</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:48"> in the United States to set up to the grad lab at</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:51"> MIT and the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:54"> rad lab at MIT did designed more</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:57"> than 180 different radar</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:0"> systems this is in three and a half years of of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:3"> the war and these were all manufactured</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:6"> by the companies around Boston through</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:9"> 128 companies and distributed by the hundreds</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:12"> of thousands all over the world</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:15"> as small as fighter planes as large as coastal</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:18"> installations and everything in between all done</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:21"> by a group of about three or four thousand people</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:24"> in building 20 at MIT in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:27"> three and a half years so this is one of the great stories</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:30"> of all times and of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:33"> the people who worked in the rad lab nine of them became</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:36"> Nobel Prize winners later and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:39"> none of them enduring the work at the rad</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:42"> lab we're working on the stuff that earned them the Nobel Prize they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:45"> were they put aside their physics hats to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:48"> do physical engineering on</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:51"> behalf of this much larger cause this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:54"> is a great story and it's something</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:57"> that everybody in government should</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:0"> not only know</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:3"> about it but have their nose rubbed in it and the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:6"> other part of it is to take a look at</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:9"> the the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:12"> aftermath which</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:15"> of a terrible war but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:18"> the aftermath of that war was that industrial</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:21"> capacity and industrial wave</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:24"> methodology the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:27"> level of inventions and every other kind of thing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:30"> had been boosted in a way that was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:33"> not happening incrementally and so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:36"> after World War two there was an</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:39"> essentially a whole new engineering and a holding an industrial</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:42"> revolution based on everything</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:45"> was learned there and by the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:48"> way it was happening over here except</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:51">he combination of the government the bankers and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:54"> the academics could not cooperate</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:57"> so this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:0"> country was leading in computing all the way</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:3"> up to the early 60s both</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:6"> in hardware and software was ahead</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:9"> of the Americans by perhaps five years or</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:12"> so and all of that got blown by</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:15"> the different</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:18"> priorities and different levels of understanding that existed</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:21">here and we were the benefit of it because I went to half</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:24"> literally half the graduate students I went to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:27"> grad school within the 60s were from the UK</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:30">and from France which had had its own way of self-destruction</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:33"> and so we got this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:36"> fabulous group of talented</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:39"> PhD students who came over to the US because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:42"> ARPA was funding a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:45"> lot of important stuff and in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:48"> a way it never came back over here except as</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:51"> goods to be sold</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:54"> so I'd like to just ask</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:57"> a question on the subject of cooperation</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:0"> between let's call it politicians</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:3">community I mean if somebody's I've lived</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:6"> in the UK most of my life and my</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:9"> impression is that there has been quite a lot of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:12">distrust between politicians and scientists here even</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:15"> a kind of that politicians would hold</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:18"> even the language that's used to describe</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:21"> scientists as boffins and techie</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:24"> artists exactly the problem is that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:27"> the you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:30"> know it's in a way it's worse here</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:33"> we have our own problem with basically in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:36"> the US and here pretty much the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:39"> only elites that are allowed and admired</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:42"> by a wide part of society are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:45"> sports heroes right</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:48">place where people can be better than ordinary and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:51"> people are happy about it but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:54"> over here we have the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:57"> two cultures and he was not talking about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:0"> working class culture at all he was talking about the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:3"> latter's culture and the science culture</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:6"> in the high level universities here ya know and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:9"> that is a huge problem because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:12"> of sinking stone pointed out it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:15"> is far more likely for a scientist</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:18"> to know quite a bit about Shakespeare he and it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:21"> is for Shakespeare specialists know anything of all about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:24"> silence yes and then it said certainly in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:27"> Europe politicians or certainly in the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:30"> UK politicians have generally been drawn from the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:33"> Arts side rather the science side so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:36"> the huge exception of course</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:39"> recently was Andrea</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:42"> Merkel who</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:45"> has a PhD in physics and is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:48">few heads of state who can actually understand the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:51"> dynamics of a contagion</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:54"> like kovat 19</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:57"> and she laid it into Germany</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:0"> a couple of days ago of pointing out that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:3"> it could very well be 50 to 70 percent</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:6"> infected which is actually</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:9"> what the epidemiologists in the United States</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:12"> think and this is incredibly</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:15"> inconvenient for people</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:18"> trying to make money and people trying to do that and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:21"> like Al Gore said</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:24"> in his book an inconvenient truth about the climate problem</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:27"> people who don't have the imagination understand</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:30"> the consequences try to sweep it under the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:33"> rug like president Trempealeau poses</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:36"> will go away he claims it will</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:39"> go away but it's not going to go away so what's what's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:42"> in this paper I wrote for the Ellen</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:45"> MacArthur Foundation one of the main</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:48"> points was the only time when</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:51"> regular people are willing to call on the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:54">boffins and is when they're deathly afraid of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:57"> something and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:0"> often the boffins have been working away anyway</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:3"> because part of the deal of being</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:6"> of Zionists of looking ahead so they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:9"> are often already working on it but yeah so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:12">you had in the 30s the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:15"> enough people got worried</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:18">about what was happening in Germany to get</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:21"> the radar stuff going and to get</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:24"> a Bletchley Park</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:27"> going in the u.s. it's not</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:30"> wasn't any better except Roosevelt president Roosevelt</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:33"> was for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:36"> helping the the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:39"> UK but Congress wasn't Congress</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:42"> was not interested in doing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:45"> anything that wasn't an investment</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:48"> in a possibility of a war so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:51"> it happened in the u.s. maybe in typical US</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:54"> fashion that a very smart guy who</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:57"> had made the equivalent of billions today</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:0"> by</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:3"> understanding how the Depression was going to go</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:6"> he converted everything into gold right</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:9"> before the depression happened and then bought</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:12"> at the bottom and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:15"> so but as a recovery happened he got richer</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:18"> and richer he happened to be an excellent amateur</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:21"> scientist to the point that he was eventually elected to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:24"> the National Academy of Sciences and on with</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:27">is own money he set up a huge insulation called Tuxedo</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:30"> Park so this is the American</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:33"> side also going on in the 30s he invented many</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:36"> of the navigational aids that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:39"> are still in use today make more money</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:42"> on those but he was especially interested in radar</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:45"> and so when this thing started</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:48"> happening the government was still allow yeah</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:51">eventually get around to funding something at MIT</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:54"> and this guy Alfred Loomis said well the heck with</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:57"> that I'll just fund it but he just stepped in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:0"> and funded the whole start of everything and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:3"> was great for any it was anyway</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:6">another part of this really interesting radar</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:9"> story pretty much nobody whose</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:12"> job it was to to do</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:15"> something reasonable did their job</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:18"> reasonably was done by</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:21"> people who weren't in a better</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:24">imagine what was going to have and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:27"> some of them had means to start making things</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:30"> happen so so the ARPA Park thing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:33"> Xerox was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:36"> one of the ARPA projects it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:39"> was just that by the time Matt was set up</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:42"> for another set of reasons the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:45"> DoD had been shut down from doing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:48">kind of research funding that they were doing and ARPA</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:51"> got changed to DARPA the Charter</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:54"> got changed the kind of projects they could fund got changed</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:57"> and so finding Xerox</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:0"> as a funder was the goal of one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:3"> of the original orbit Arbor funders who was afraid that the work</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:6"> wasn't going to get done and it needed about half</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:9"> of it had been done at eight years of it have been done and he</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:12"> thought another five to six years</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:15"> could finish off the whole deal that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:18"> turned out to be the case and a lot of that remaining</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:21"> five years was funded by Xerox you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:24"> were about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:27"> in your in your preprint</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:30">about the imagination required that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:33"> imagination of catastrophe and one of the problems with</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:36"> climate changes the human blindness to actually seeing and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:39"> imagining was that know it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:42"> so again the climate thing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:45"> no we again there's a sallied</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:48"> ISM thing but what most most people</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:51"> don't get about science it is actually qualitatively different than</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:54"> normal human reasoning and normal</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:57">human ways of looking at the world is qualitatively different</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:0"> it's not like a better version of what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:3"> Kay people used to do yeah it's a whole new</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:6"> deal but it almost anybody can learn how to do</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:9"> it the problem is most people don't learn how to do</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:12"> it and the educational institutions</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:15"> have not taken it seriously as</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:18"> something that young children should learn how to do it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:21"> an epistemological thing it's a world view kind of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:24"> thing so it is most easily learned</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:27"> by most people when they're children if you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:30"> don't learn them when you're a child you are faced with something</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:33"> much more difficult than learning a foreign language when</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:36"> you're older but what the way the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:39"> true about climate is this that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:42"> Caltech scientists</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:45"> in the early late 50s invented</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:48"> the apparatus needed to really</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:51"> accurately measure the co2 in the atmosphere</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:54"> that was started in 57</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:57"> by 1962</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:0"> enough careful measurements</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:3"> have been taken to show that not only was it increasing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:6"> but it was increasing exponentially the National Science</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:9"> Foundation of the u.s. issued a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:12"> warning saying we are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:15"> going to be in complete trouble in about 50</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:18"> years if this isn't taken</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:21"> care of immediately so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:24"> the way I counted that was like 57</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:27"> or 58 years ago and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:30"> no sciences job</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:33"> is to make the Invisibles more visible</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:36"> people we are all going scientists</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:39"> are blind but we can make instruments and we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:42"> can make measurement ways of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:45"> modeling things that extend what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:48"> we can't do without them that's the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:51"> whole point here so the things they're starting to talk</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:54">now like carbon tax well it's way too late what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:57"> people don't realize is respect to the climate we are right</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:0"> in the middle of a war we have been</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:3"> invaded it's not a question of the enemy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:6"> being over here or being small it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:9">invisible to most people they can't see it and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:12"> nobody is taking it seriously yet</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:15"> same thing and you probably</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:18"> are aware that among various degrees I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:21"> picked up in my misspent youth besides one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:24"> in in math and the computing ones there's one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:27"> in molecular biology so if we switch over</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:30"> to biology</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:33"> every and I think every every</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:36"> scientist in the physical sciences and certainly</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:39"> the biologists have been warning for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:42"> decades about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:45"> the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:48"> certainties of Panda</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:51"> make deadly pandemics</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:54"> there is nothing new here there's nothing surprising</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:57"> about coronavirus in any way to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:0"> any scientist nothing it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:3"> just the details but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:6"> that it's even a respiratory disease</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:9"> is not surprising because we've had SARS and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:12"> MERS already we were lucky</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:15"> with SARS because even though it was really deadly</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:18"> and MERS also they're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:21"> not very contagious so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:24"> but the whole point of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:27"> doing this stuff ahead of time is to get is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:30"> to take the imagination that science</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:33"> is able to do pretty darn accurately for instance with</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:36"> regard to the climate there was just a recent</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:39"> study that looked at the 30 main supercomputer</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:42"> simulations starting back</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:45"> right before the 70s so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:48"> a supercomputer back then was about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:51"></subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:54"> 200,000 times less capable</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:57"> in an iPhone 6 but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:0">supercomputers compared to the other computers but every</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:3"> single one of the climate simulations starting</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:6"> back then run and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:9"> looking at what they predicted back then to what has happened</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:12"> today the worst one was only off by a couple of couple</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:15"> of percent the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:18"> ones we can do today are much more</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:21"> accurate and much more detailed but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:24"> there's never been a time</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:27"> once the detection</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:30"> of the greenhouse gas increases that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:33"> scientists haven't been able to imagine this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:36"> disaster never so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:39"> you could imagine you know I'm sounding frustrated</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:42"> right but yeah the inmates are running the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:45"> asylum here and they're going</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:48"> to suffer that that faith I think there's a good</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:51"> chance that major parts of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:54"> the ecosystems on the planet are going to be toppled</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:57"> and one of the one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:0"> of the things I do in Cox often is I bring in a coke</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:3"> bottle and set</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:6"> up the normal way I pointed well you can poke at it a little bit</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:9"> and it'll come back but if you turn the coke bottle</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:12"> and stand it up on its neck just a little</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:15"> poke will topple it over and now imagine the difference</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:18"> in the amount of work that has to be done between what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:21">it took the top lit and to put it right-side up and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:24"> what if the toppling rolls it off the table now think</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:27"> of how much work has to be done so these are the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:30"> kinds of things and the same thing is true with covin</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:33"> the big problem with these viruses</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:36"> is what most people can't see</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:39"> so they are reacting to the tip of an iceberg</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:42"> the scientists were reacting to the fact that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:45"> there were going to be icebergs so these</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:48"> are these warnings 20 years ago people are reacting</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:51"> to the tip of the iceberg but science knows</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:54">estimate the mass of the part of the iceberg you can't see</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:57"> and similarly there are models that can take what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:0"> you can see and find</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:3"> good estimates of what's actually going on which</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:6"> is usually about a factor of 15 or 20 more</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:9"> infections than have actually been shown up</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:12"> both the US and the UK have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:15"> essentially been I would</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:18"> call it scandalous at not testing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:21"> like in the whole US there have only</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:24"> been five thousand tests administered so far and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:27"> maybe proportionately only that in the UK</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:30"> I don't know I haven't been tracking it every day but this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:33"> is like crazy because how else are they going to be able to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:36"> estimate what kinds of emergency</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:39"> measures have to happen the other thing in the UK</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:42"> is that UK for instance</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:45"> compared to the US the UK has 1/7</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:48"> the available hospital beds per capita</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:51"> 1/7 and I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:54"> believe the UK is almost the worst country</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:57"> in Europe as far as hospital beds</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:0"> available per capita</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:3"> don't we go to Washington the state of Washington</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:6">they're taking care of people out in the hallways</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:9"> because they got swamped anyway</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:12"> so the Chinese got started a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:15"> little bit slow but then they they have man to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:18"> shut the thing down now it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:21"> may not happen here reason there's a thing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:24"> called the pandemic is because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:27"> other countries didn't act as</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:30"> soon as the chosen up in China anybody</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:33"> with half a brain would shut</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:36"> everything down because of course</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:39"> it's going to spread and especially if it's viable</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:42"> for days on surfaces like the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:45"> corona virus is that means</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:48"> you don't have to be sneezed on to get</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:51"> it means people can carry it around for days and their hands and transfer</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:54"> it and so that's that's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:57"> the recipe and there are plenty of models that will tell you exactly</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:0"> what's going to happen and those models are being</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:3">right but you know it's a Pyrrhic victory isn't it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:6"> yeah of course the models are right so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:9"> so these things are very frustrating</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:12"> to scientists and they awry</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:15"> they are one of the causes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:18">of the friction between scientists and politicians</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:21"> because they in general</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:24"> you know except for somebody like Al Gore</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:27"> who was a perfect guy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:30"> he was really interested in the stuff he did his homework</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:33"> he liked scientists he</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:36">interested in what science was saying about the climate he was concerned</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:39"> so he was a big exception</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:42"> to that but you know most politicians find</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:45"> you know treat scientists</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:48"> as Cassandra was treated and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:51"> you would think that the letters people over</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:54"> here would actually know that story wouldn't you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:57"> I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:0"> mean it's the it's in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:3"> the Iliad right there Cassandra was telling</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:6">them what was going to happen and they didn't like what she was saying</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:9"> so they just ignored her even warned them</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:12"> about the Trojan horse so so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:15"> that is one of those stories from antiquity that shows where</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:18"> roughly the same species we always work which</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:21"> is that we project our own beliefs onto the world rather</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:24">trying to find out what the world actually is so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:27"> this is a huge problem and of course business is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:30">its</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:33"> main problem is its goals are too small</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:36"> like living in the twentieth century and if</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:39"> your goal is just to make money you're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:42"> in real trouble and you're likely to mess</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:45"> things up for other people as well that's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:48"> way off being</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:51">century like in American businesses</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:54">basically like hunters and gatherers a hundred thousand</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:57"> years ago there's a lush Valley</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:0"> we have instincts to go exploit</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:3"> the things in the lush Valley and when we deplete the value</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:6"> there's another Valley the valleys right now we're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:9"> created by all of these scientists that nobody wants to fund anymore</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:12"> and the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:15"> businesses don't even think about where this stuff comes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:18"> from they're just trying to make money off it and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:21"> none of the billionaire's I know</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:24"> happen putting</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:27">out big funding even in their own companies</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:30"> for the kinds of research that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:33"> gave them the technologies in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:36">place so I find that the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:39"> level of blindness and blindness</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:42"> has a kind of arrogance that goes along with it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:45"> because it's a kind of a blundering</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:48"> arrogance oh yeah</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:51"> so you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:54"> know if you turn it around look at the plus side</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:57"> of the thing the people</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:0">who did these eight and a half inventions just at</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:3">counting the one the other ones that are padded</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:6"> the most</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:9"> of those eight and a half inventions were done by</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:12"> a grand total of 25 PhDs or PhD</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:15"> equivalents was cheap cost</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:18"> hardly anything well</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:21"> I did a calculation</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:24"> recently of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:27"> let's see what it wasn't it was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:30"> companies</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:33"> tend</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:36"> to you know tend to allocate maybe 5</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:39"> to 10% for Rd 10% of their</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:42"> revenue and so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:45"> if you take that and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:48"> investments theory says you should invest a small amount</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:51"> of what you're investing in high-risk</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:54"> high-return things so that's kind</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:57"> of the kind of research that we did so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:0"> let's say one to five percent of the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:3"> five to ten percent and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:6"> so I took those figures</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:9"> for what would it take to do a Xerox PARC and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:12"> I took the low ones I took five percent for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:15"> Rd and 1% of that for Mad Money and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:18"> that level and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:21"> multiplied back out gave the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:24"> top 63 fortune 500 companies</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:27"> so they could afford it in a shot and if</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:30"> you took the larger percentages of investment</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:33"> it went to the top 600</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:36"> fortune 500 companies so we're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:39"> talking about Stanford as far as government's go we're talking about nothing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:42"> here you're talking about fingernail clippings</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:45"> money that is wasted so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:48"> the coming up with the money is really</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:51"> easy why don't people want to spend it and the answer</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:54"> is because they're more</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:57"> than always more than one reason one good one is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:0"> the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:3"> people who are responsible for this money feel</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:6"> like they should have some control of the process</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:9"> right because we're used to top-down processes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:12">about it people who spent their lives making money</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:15"> or winding up controlling money have not spent their</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:18"> lives doing science so they are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:21"> the last people who should ever be put in charge of deciding</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:24"> goals and there</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:27"> is a famous effort</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:30"> over here to match up to our club before and to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:33"> the Japanese fifth generation in the 80s called Alvey</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:36"> you guys are all too young to remember that but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:39"> you can read the documents of what happened</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:42"> in the end they could not bring themselves to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:45"> fund fund the way ARPA funded</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:48"> instead they democratized it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:51"> and spread it around and that is not</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:54"> the way you get David Beckham</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:57"> on was it Manchester United</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:0"> now if you want to put together a championship</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:3"> team don't spread the money around</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:6"> at the same time Europe</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:9"> did a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:12"> similar effort called Alvie</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:15"> that was called a spree Alvie</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:18"> over here is pretty over-the-air both of these were</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:21"> complete busts and the current EU</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:24"> version which is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:27"> money monetarily wise is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:30"> it was a really good idea which is they have have had matching</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:33"> funds for R&D for companies</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:36"> in Europe for years almost nothing has</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:39"> come of these things because the EU</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:42"> has retained the prerogative</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:45"> of deciding what the projects are and the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:48">important thing there is in this far out research</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:51"> is problem finding and part</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:54"> of the funding Arco spent probably 40% of its entire</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:57"> budget funding problem finding</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:0"> for which there is no result at all</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:3"> except people would occasionally say</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:6"> oh now I know what I want to work on right</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:9"> and that doesn't trickle out except in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:12"> wartime or a cold war time to something that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:15">especially the public they don't understand any</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:18"> of this stuff right what they understand</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:21"> is somebody being given a task and their job is to do that this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:24"> the way it works so we're talking about this crazy thing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:27"> where there's almost infinities of money available</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:30"> ironically a lot</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:33"> of it from these inventions that we did in the 60s and 70s but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:36"> nobody will put it back out</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:39">because they don't want to move from hunting and gathering to even</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:42"> in bending agriculture in agriculture</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:45"> has this idea that you have to renew the land</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:48"> because you're more or less permanently settled</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:51"> right and even the Bible</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:54">loud has a famous</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:57"> thing in there where you should leave your fields fallow one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:0"> year and seven so they can recover so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:3">14 percent and that's a very good R&D budget</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:6"> it's that 14% you're not</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:9"> using for day-to-day stuff</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:12"> that is going to allow you to be around and prosper</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:15"> a hundred years from now yes today</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:18"> about are you positive about the future Allen</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:21"> I mean one thing I looked up with the current</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:24"> situation it was there that there</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:27"> was one little thing that was heard on the news that the politicians</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:30">were saying we're doing everything the scientists are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:33"> telling us to do which was remarkable</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:36"> you've never heard yeah yes that's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:39"> a just at least on the US that's completely wrong</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:42"> yeah yeah well they're not doing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:45"> they may be saying that but yeah</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:48"> yeah you again but there was an it was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:51"> an interesting thing to hear nonetheless</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:54"> and I was wondering whether because there's not an election</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:57">coming up in the UK and this thing is developing so quick</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:0"> so that there isn't that that kind of concern for politicians</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:3"> about losing their seats or doing something that is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:6"> politically unpalatable whether that was or all maybe</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:9"> weather coded itself would would be a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:12"> demonstration of a meeting if it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:15"> successfully contained which is probably not gonna</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:18"> happen now but the showcase of what happens when you do listen</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:21">scientists I mean I'm trying to search for very few</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:24"> positives in a sea of negatives yeah</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:27"> but nobody who</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:30"> you know nobody who's a research</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:33"> scientist is other than</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:36"> an optimist you know</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:39"> we like to work on hard problems and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:42"> we don't expect to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:45"> you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:48">working on the fringe I forget what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:51"> what's a good batting average in cricket</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:54"> it's like</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:57"> 50 similar</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:0"> to baseball I think so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:3"> what that means is 65% of the the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:6"> time something not</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:9"> desired happens so it looks</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:12"> like terrible failure but in baseball certainly</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:15"> and I'm sure in cricket that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:18"> is considered to be overhead for trying</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:21"> to do something really difficult though</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:24"> an error in baseball is not catching a fly ball that's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:27"> technique you should be able to you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:30"> know in baseball you're supposed to catch 98 or 99 percent of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:33"> the time successfully because it's mirror</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:36">technique it's something you can get good at but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:39"> nobody can get good at being</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:42"> so SEC's successful create creatively</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:45"> because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:48"> the good thing is much less probable</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:51"> than the millions of bad things right</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:54"> it's a special or it's like life compared to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:57"> all of the organizations of exactly the same chemicals</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:0"> that are not alive there are trillions and trillions of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:3"> ways of not having in a live thing from exactly</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:6"> the same chemicals in exactly the same proportions</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:9"> so so the way this thing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:12"> works is yeah people are very optimistic about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:15"> their process</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:18"> what they usually measure themselves on is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:21"> not percentage of results</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:24"> so if you get 0 you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:27"> need to think about a different field but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:30"> what they measure themselves is on the quality of the effort and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:33"> the way the thing works out with the amount</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:36"> of method that's available now a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:39"> very high quality of effort by high quality people</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:42"> is going to generate trillions</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:45"> of dollars or pounds of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:48"> additional wealth and can</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:51"> also deal with some of the problems created</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:54"> by people who lack imagination and have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:57"> been polluting the planet for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:0"> the last 150 years or so yeah</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:3"> so you know if you ask me whether I'm optimistic</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:6"> about the human race</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:9">I never have been but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:12"> I've spent most of my life trying to move</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:15"> education into a place where it can do much more with</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:18"> children than the imaginations of most parents</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:21"> and governments children can do</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:24"> a lot more along these lines than</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:27">parents and governments and/or their teachers really</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:30"> want them to because all of these things are different</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:33"> from what the parents teachers and governments</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:36"> are comfortable with so they're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:39"> these comfort zone issues and these issues of convenience</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:42"> and inconvenience are the ones that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:45"> wind up taking small problems</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:48"> into enormous problems maybe intractable problems</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:51"> and that is a that is one of the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:54"> many tragedies that is inherent to our species</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:57"> it's like irony you know Americans</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:0"> don't really get irony but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:3"> my father was an Australian and he loved British</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:6"> culture so I was schooled in irony early on but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:9"> the thing he pointed out to me about irony</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:12"> he is a little bit of it as humorous</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:15"> but deep ironies are usually tragic</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:18"> right and so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:21"> one of the ones were just seeing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:24"> now is for instance Biogen</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:27"> which is a company in Cambridge Mass of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:30"> full of biologists</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:33"> physicians they do neuro physiological</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:36"> stuff but still they know all of this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:39"> stuff nevertheless they decided to have their</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:42"> yearly conference they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:45"> are in-game 'bridge massed and they were</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:48"> the center of the outbreak in Boston right now</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:51"> you know and another one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:54"> of these tragic ironies is you may not be aware of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:57"> it but somewhere between 200,000</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:0"> and 300,000 people each year in the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:3"> u.s. die is the result of diseases</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:6"> transmitted by physicians</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:9"> not being careful about sepsis</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:12"> probably over here too</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:15"> but they have the gloves on</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:18"> they say oh I we don't I don't worry</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:21">getting infected but what they're doing is carrying</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:24"> stuff on their gloves all over the place and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:27"> like I say as many people now in the US</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:30"> has died from smoking died because the physicians</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:33"> in the hospitals have infected them so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:36"> this is irony but it's it's the tragedy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:39"> of the human race that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:42"> we can't educate</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:45"> the children to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:48">more aware of these things that are invisible</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:51"> and to be able to think</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:54"> about them without being fearful so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:57"> it's just like teaching a child about a big dog</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:0"> teaching a child about automobiles in the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:3"> street you want to be afraid of an automobile</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:6"> but you don't want to think you're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:9"> impervious right so that this kind of elementary</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:12"> training of what you might call epistemological perspectives</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:15"> that are demanded in the 21st century is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:18"> not being done</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:21"> so all of the worries are about vocational</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:24"> things in the US and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:27">maybe over here also and that's completely missing the point because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:30"> the learning to program a computer</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:33"> is not going to invent you the Internet</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:36"> not even close the internet</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:39"> was invented as part of a large project to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:42"> help people learn to think better</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:45"> and to cooperate better</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:48"> as part of his lofty goal it was humanistic</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:51"> that was such a grand vision</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:54"> that people who are scientists and technologists</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:57"> just loved the idea of working on this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:0"> thing and we were able to pull it off after about 14 years of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:9">you</subtitle>