Difference between revisions of "Alan Kay at World Economic Forum, Davos, Switzerland (1994)"

Latest revision as of 22:10, 5 December 2017

good morning

welcome to the morning session my name

is Richard Saul Wurman and I will

introduce the panelists as they speak I

have three premises I would like to share with you and then I will ask the

panel on my right to respond to them or

a rift away from them or say what they would like to say hopefully inspired or

to counter a kind of dict what I'm saying premise number one it goes

without saying that we are sending

vastly we have the ability to send vastly vast quantities of information

faster and cheaper they were sending

them in many ways through the air through wires through the ground that

we're storing more things in smaller spaces and that the hardware that is

being developed is getting smaller and smaller and hopefully cheaper and

cheaper doing more and more things and it's going to interact with each other

on demand we're going to be able to carry it in our hands and our pockets

maybe even in our glasses that goes

without saying we we are in the middle of that it will continue on for the next

few years it's not a point of discussion we have all read infinite number of

articles on hardware software of multimedia storage speed information

highways back roads side rows dirt roads all kinds of things the second premise

as a result of getting all this stuff all this data faster being able to store

more of it there will be created even

though it doesn't exist now a viable

group people and companies which I call the

information architects they will take this information and make it

understandable this doesn't exist now except in isolated situations but this

group of people these corporations these people who will be in the instruction

business and the understanding business these information architects will occur

because there's money in it and they have to it has to happen so in the next 10 years there's going to be a new

business the third premise is really what I am

addressing to these four gentlemen on my right and that is if information is

accessible and understandable if indeed

we can with no anxiety with great ease

find the answers to our questions push

buttons that just tell us a couple it tells some machine two or three things

about ourselves and get the car we should really buy or find out

information about law or about medicine or about politics if we can uncover and

understand things about government and bills that are going to be passed if we

can vote shop

bypass travel agents is this the Chinese

curse I curse you I curse you may you get everything you want do we indeed

make such changes to our economy to

existing groups in our economy do we bypass advertising do we bypass many

parts of many professional life do we get anarchy because of understanding of

government do we reveal the secrets that

have been that have people have held you know like shamans the power of

information what is the result of one

getting more and more information - having it understandable

what is the result of this kind of public information being made public now

this is what we've always wanted this is what people talk about this is the the

dream that I've had for a long part of my life I've talked about public

information should be made public and the second public means available

accessible and understandable but then what happens those are the three

premises this morning I think this is a serious and interesting issue into

communications today and the four gentlemen on my right eye it's easy

you're supposed to say this upfront that they're remarkable and special but they really are remarkable and special I'm

going to lead off because he seemed more

awake than the others with our token

Welshman the president of Neddie and

most people probably haven't heard an eddy but it's it's this division of News

Corporation that is taking news

corporation happily quick kicking and screaming into the electronic age he's a

strategist strategist and an evangelist

I think of sorts and he will say something disrespectful after he starts

about me mr. Evans good morning I don't

know how awake I am and I'm not sure how much I can cover of that long agenda in

the time let's take a shot at this

clearly the idea of people getting more

information is problematic because most

of the problems today is that there's too much advice and too much information and the result is stagnation or people

ending up as couch potatoes and and the proposal that there will be

information architects who groom and select and bring all of this vast

information into a usable and useful size and format is it's clear because

that's what we call editing the difference between myself and many of

the people speaking at these conferences is that I'm a publisher and I'm somebody

who's worked on the creative side of trying to write stories and trying to edit them and then trying to run

magazines and find the money to do it with and so the difficulty for me as I'm

developing software to do exactly what Richard was proposing is that unlike a

company that is operating in Silicon Valley in California building utopia I

have to be careful that I don't destroy what we have at News Corporation before

I start because our money is made here and now and I'm working in there and

then and it's how to get from here to there and certain things appear to be

fundamental the first thing that appears to be fundamental is that products to

survive in this information age have to have three criteria they have to be

digital they have to be narrowcast or they personalized and they have to be

interactive and so the first way of

reducing this vast amount excuse me this vast amount of information into a

meaningful size is through the process of agent Rhee which is in simple terms

devising a piece of software that understands the user the understanding

is based upon criteria that you the user

put into the software a profile what you

liked and disliked about very simple things now the work I'm doing is

initially in the travel area because that's a safe area because it's a

business we're not in so if I mess it up we don't hurt ourselves but secondly

more importantly it's an area full of commissions and royalty payments because

you can't deliver things today with $30 a delivery costs that are worth a dollar

The Wall Street Journal delivered by Wireless in the United States they would cost about $80 to deliver you might

charge 75 cents for it but the delivery cost would kill it and so one has to

have small amounts of information which are highly valuable for which other people are willing to pay you for the

transaction either hotels or Airlines or car rental people and so that you can

deliver the product in a subsidized way which is the way we've always delivered

information in the traditional analog sense those of us will crush trees and

smearing kana to make newspapers do so in a very highly subsidized way with

advertising it would seem to me that in a an electronic Information Age sense

the idea of imposition the idea of forcing people to watch advertisements

when I the publisher wants you to watch them is now over the remote control that

allows you to misuse television would

allow you to avoid commercials on television very easily and any form of

electronic device that receives information will have a hard time

imposing advertising and so the future is going to be made up of pure

advertising and transactional processing and by that I mean people use that

remote control on television to avoid advertisements but they use the same

device to go and watch an hour-long advertisement on some product like car

polish or hair dryers or or beauty

treatments and so advertising when we want it is compelling and when we want

it we want it and when it's forced on us at a time that we may not want it is a

thing of the past and so I think that

one at one of the areas we ought to look at is how do we change the economic

model along this process how does that slowly take place home shopping netwerk

some television today are very early examples of this and once you start to

put Home Shopping Network behind soap operas so that in the future you'll be

able to see a product demonstrated in a more natural setting

if you're a woman and you see somebody wearing a dress in the soap opera you like you should be able to see it in all

its colors maybe see yourself wearing it if you've digitized yourself with your

home video camera into the set and then purchase it by some wireless or or long

line transaction and have it delivered the next day and and those sort of

things you can see coming quite clearly the biggest problem facing the future

and I'll try to give my friends equal time here is that there's a lot of talk

in the United States and in Europe about cyber highways and information highways

which frankly I think is nonsense because I think it's already here it's

called AT&T in the United States and then that was copied by Sprint and then

by MCI so we have three fairly super highways out there with a lot of

bandwidth on them so we've got the communications we have vast cable

systems the problem is access the problems not the infrastructure the

problem is access who are the gatekeepers how are they placed there and what are the regulations that

control them because clearly the more personalized information that we have

through editing or narrowcasting the more when you require privacy and to be

protected in the way this information travels and so we need virtually common

carriers who are prohibited from

interfering with the free passage of our information right now as publishers the

truck that drives the newspaper to the newsstand or the book to the bookstore

or the movie to the movie house is not violated by the transportation a truck

driver can't change the newspaper a bookstore can't change the book it may

decide not to sell it but the editing process remains hours and somehow that

has to remain in the process at the other end the difference between today

where we as bit radiators where we as publishers issue one too many the future

is where people who have high technology

in their hands the power transfers from us at the center to the user at the

peripheral and that the user will reach into the center for what they want and

that the transportation back and forth to the user

must be sacred as it is currently between us and the distribution networks

thank you John our next speaker is yet

another legend it's Alan K Apple fellow thank you and

he has an arm that is broken and he won't tell us why too boring a story one

of the ways that I've tried to think about what's going to happen in the next

few years is partly in the context of a

dream that many people started having about 30 years ago

in the u.s. it was sponsored by an organization called ARPA the Advanced

Research Projects Agency and the idea

was that somehow computers were likely

to become symbiotic partners some complementary aid for thinking and

doing and that that partnership would be

affected through networks so this is a very old idea in fact I think actually

dr. pinzhi has probably remembers better but I think the first time a computer

and telecommunications were used together was in 1938 with stibitz as

complex was basically a pocket calculator the size of a room made out

of relays and you could dial in from home and get it to calculate things for

you so there's the whole notion of combining these technologies have been

around for a very long time the thing that has haunted me for many

years was 25 years ago or so I visited

one of the great libraries in New York City it was in the middle of a

burned-out slum and nobody was in that library although I was fully functional

and free and open to the public so when

we talk about access being the problem I don't exactly agree I think there's

already access in many countries to a

wealth of in nation held in old media and what is

lacking is a value system that

understands that the great powers are to be had by availing oneself of that kind

of information and putting all of that information into digital form and

broadcasting it on fiber-optic networks and even making it interactive is not

going to help that much because there is another part a social part that has to

be thought through my friend Neil postman likes to make the distinction

between a technology and a medium there's a for instance television as a

technology and American television is a medium as you will find the more you

imported into to Europe it's a particularly of using a technology

computer is a technology and one of the things the visionaries at ARPA wanted to

find out is what kind of medium should we make it so that it could be a partner

for humans that implied that it should be made interactive and we should learn

about how to make friendly user interfaces we should learn something

about how people learn when they deal with interactive media and so forth and

this problem is still not solved another

problem I have when I think about this is the what you might call the junk

media phenomena now this is much older than electronic media flow bear in

Madame Bovary

characterized Madame bovary's problem as

reading too many romance novels she thought of as the junk media of the day

and I'm sure his term might have been couched pomme de la terre for what her

condition was so that the idea is that

any of these media can be made into sugar water and people will find ways to

do it and to spread them around so you can think of the tendency

in all technological efforts sort of two

things go on side by side with people trying to do good one is one is what I

call inverse vandalism which is the opposite of destroying something it's

making something just because you can and a lot of the products that people

are sold today are things that were made just because they could be made and then

marketing people figure out how to make them attractive and sort of the partner

of that I called narco engineering narco engineering is making something that is

addictive and habit-forming by catering

to tendencies that human beings like for instance fat sugar salt we like

flickering images and people will home in on that as well and so the there is a

vast potential for creating an entirely

new set of junk media transmitted at the speed of light and in fact a couple of

weeks ago I was at vice president Gore's information Highway summit I was on a

panel there and I would characterize the majority the participants there who are

all CEOs of large corporations as trying

to find out what the next sugar water would be what electronics sugar water

would be and being very anxious to be the first ones to be able to manufacture

and dispense it now I think we can do better than that

and I don't believe that you should try and legislate junk out of existence

because one person's junk is another person's content I don't think you can

define that but I think the people who are designing the media of the future

should also think about what serious discourse is and wonder whether the

medium can handle it for example in

December of 1775 Thomas Paine wrote a

pamphlet called common sense and it was a 50 page argument contrasting

monarchies and the possibility of demo

democratic governments and in January

they started printing this 1776 and over

the next five or six months they printed about 600,000 copies which is a large

press run even by today's standards there are only one and a half million

colonists in the thirteen colonies back then and so the press run actually

covered about half of the colonists or almost all of the families and a large

percentage of those colonists could read and understand an extended argument done

without any pictures and most historians believe that that document was the

pivotal document in the acceptance of

the Declaration of Independence and then the federal system of the Constitution a

few years later so this now we think about trying to do that today in the

United States you'd have to have a press run of about 120 million copies which is

almost unfeasible unless you published

it in a newspaper less people in the United States percentage from a

percentage standpoint can understand a 50 page argument now and if you tried to

put it on television which is our mass medium today it won't work because

television can't carry a 50 page argument television is not about

arguments it's about presentations and so the bug in inventing television was

not that television can be filled with junk the bug in inventing television was

that television is not good for serious discourse involved in being a mass

medium for a Democratic Society I think

that is going to happen again in the next five or six years again it's not

that it's impossible to make good media

but what is

okay once you say that I was good tell

Alan listening to his 50 pages I would think that if someone of our public one

of our leaders today attempted to put 50 alphanumeric characters on a bumper

sticker his advisers would say that would be too difficult for people to

read right we're down to fortune cookies now in the US and you can expect that to

happen in Europe as American television invades I think the French are quite

right to try and keep it out so so in

conclusion what we're going to what we're setting ourselves up for is

another technology but we haven't taken

that which is much easier to do than inventing the media that is going to be

the purpose of the technology in the direction of the technology we can't

stop technology I don't want to stop technology I love it I'm a musician and

I use technology all the time to express art through and what I'm saying is that

in the next five years we should pay a special attention to making sure that

the media that goes on this technology is capable of serious discourse thank

you know I decided not to decided not to

third participant this morning is Craig fields who is currently the chairman and

CEO of MCC I can't quickly pronounce the name of a

company but it's in your booklet and he was the former director of DARPA the

Advanced Research of the Defense Department the United States government

even though I got the words out of order anyway Craig the first time I've

regretted that our name has multisyllabic words in it but thank you for the introduction

I find the analogy between the information infrastructure and the

transportation infrastructure to be a fairly poor analogy but an instructive one in some ways if you think about the

transportation infrastructure it is much more than a road system for example

if we only had a road system and did not have gas stations and fast-food chains

and trucks and automobiles and highway

police and maps and drivers education and social conventions for rules of the

road and much more we wouldn't have a transportation infrastructure and that's

not even mentioning the air and the water transportation as well in the same

way information infrastructure is much more than telecommunications certainly

for the telecommunications we can believe that getting bits from here to

there will become a commodity like buying MIPS is today in computing that

in the telecommunications part of the information infrastructure it's possible

to warp space and time distances shrink and you can be real time or not real

time that you can connect people and computer programs and information of

course it's multimedia that's not even noteworthy who would want mono media of

course it's secure who would want unsecure but to me the interesting parts

of information infrastructure are not at the telecommunications level as Ricky

suggested earlier but in fact are the things above it the directories the

libraries the brokerage services the expert commentators the pundits the

training courses all of those additional things without which you don't actually

have an information infrastructure one of the consequences of the growth of

information infrastructure is the growth of information commerce buying and

selling information which is the topic of our discussion this morning and I

expect there are new functions that are going to grow up we see the seeds of

each of these functions today but they will sprout what do I mean I mean

critics and reviewers I mean advertisers I agree with your

comments that advertisement will not be the involuntary experience it is today

but will be more personalized and directed by the receiver of the

advertisement I see brokers and brokerage services perhaps people

perhaps computer programs to help connect buyers and sellers to help

negotiate prices it's helped get group deals some of these brokers exist today

some of you perhaps use either the Moses service or the fast service that operate

in the United States both are automated brokerage services in one case for

connecting buyers of integrated circuits to producers of integrated circuits in

another case buyers of electronic components to suppliers of electronic

components and everyone gets a better deal I see locators to help you find things

because in fact it'll all be there but finding it will be quite challenging and

in fact there should be a wide range of finding things from the very directed

search to the opportunity for browsing this is somewhat similar to the personal

shopper that some of us employ at Christmastime to help us get our gifts

browsing is something in information infrastructure that I think is

underappreciated one of my hobbies is cooking and baking and a few years ago I

invested my own time to put all of my recipes into a computer it was the worst

experience of my life not only putting it in but then later precisely finding

what I wanted losing the opportunity to browse was a big mistake

and that has to be part of this location service and then lastly going to Ricky

your point about understanding the sort of super concept of the editor to try to

make things understandable as always there'll be a tension between the

originating producer of somewhere between data and information and the

editors I know journalists today who are convinced their editors do nothing but

destroy their stories and editors who are convinced that their writers give

them a random series of consonants and vowels and then they have to produce the

information in this world of information commerce competition will be the same I

believe or along the same lines as competition for products namely time to

market price quality and variety and my

own excitement is focused on that last word variety namely being able to

produce a wide range of forms of information and of information because

in the end people really want answers and the ultimate is a one on one

transaction between a supplier of information and a consumer and that

consumer gets something that no one else has ever gotten now you suggested that we focus Ricky on

two areas this information commerce it affects government as it and as it

affects what I'll call normal Commerce and in goods and services

let me speak of government for a moment or two then go on to commerce and then

I'll be done as you indicated I I did work in government federal government in

the United States for 17 years and the speculation that you raised was that if

the public was better aware of loopholes and tax breaks and lobbying and some of

our laws that in fact there might or might not be some fundamental change I actually am of the view that there

wouldn't be fundamental change the fucked the federal government in the

United States particularly the political part is one of the most efficient information processing mechanisms I've

ever seen all aimed at public officials getting reelected and so one person's loophole

is another person's entitlement and one person's tax break is another person's

benefit and lobbying is just free expression so that I think that the

system wouldn't change very much in these circumstances but time will tell

on the other side of the coin of Commerce buying goods and services there

I think there are fundamental changes that are here now and are coming at an

accelerating rate based on information infrastructure and information Commerce

we're seeing a revolution in the whole fabric of Industry actually around the

world certainly not just in the United States going from single companies to

multi companies where people are outsourcing and depending on suppliers

entering of entering a very sort of fragile nonlinear system where very

small advantages lead to very big changes in market share and where more

and more Commerce is in services rather than goods in fact in the manufacturing

companies I know 9 out of 10 people don't manufacture but in fact do

services and we're seeing a growth in a global free trade in such services

that's what supported by the infant by the information infrastructure and by

information Commerce it means much greater efficiency it means the

opportunity to avoid waste in making things people might or might not want

and lastly it means something that's important to me it goes back to the

comment about variety then leaving opportunity for people getting custom

products there's no reason why every should get the same thing as everyone else you should be able to get exactly

what you want and at a low cost and that's what's happening I would leave

you with just one heuristic for thinking about technology and information

technology in particular namely in areas like this the opportunity to produce

custom products it really means that everybody can get the privileges that

previously it only be enjoyed by royalty or by wealthy people and to me that's a

means a major step forward thank you

Craig just gave a one-hour speech in about seven minutes we have yet one more

Nobel Prize laureate aren't opens at Penn's iist Penzias NZ Penzias right

right okay did it who runs Bell Labs in

Murray Hill New Jersey - okay if we

start about say a couple of words perhaps about the information market I'm

struck by the fact that people regard this as a new phenomenon if we think

about what most people still do today most of us certainly our children or

college students everyone feels entitled at least until recently to spend the

time between graduation from the University until retirement sitting

behind a desk now what else do those people do other than this editing of

information we say it's creative but surely every time someone writes a

report for one's boss justifying a budget over and is creative information

creativity and editing as well simple numbers 200,000 milli and I dare not use

the word billion here because different countries have different meanings of that word but 200,000 million sheets of

paper put into filing cabinets in United States every year so enormous amounts of

resource is already going into information and this information

shortfall the fact that the large majority of our labor force is now

already engaged in making this minority

of people actually make things productive by getting them from from the

one place to another by overcoming all

these terrible problems we have moving information around well until recently

of course that seemed to be it seemed to be a problem and computers by themselves

didn't do much with it the telephone even come from that part of the world

didn't help all that much but about

three or four years ago telecommunications and data processing

came together we see it in productivity

figures that non manufacturing productivity United States for example

was flat essentially zero for a generation and has now been climbing steadily for three or four years we see

direct access to information not yet

here but coming soon now the notion of

drowning in fire hoses of information is still a transmission model if we really

understand that control will ultimately come to the person seeking information

the size of the information out there is no longer threatening the machine which

we used to call a computer because this was a name given to human beings about 50 years ago people computers were

people who sat behind desk calculators and push buttons and that term was

finally given to the first of the string manipulation machines that that Alan

talked about but that data process then became their processing and other things

but today the computer is really an information interface and as people

begin to have access to other people access to machines and access to data

the information that they need and able

to extract it from this not information superhighway because of connectivity is

not important but the information supermarket that exists out there and collect the item they want at the price

they want or the service they want at the terms they want I think the world is going to change

tremendously now there are some problems

perhaps but I think I don't see that there's really will be a difficulty in

the when when the information shortfalls disappear in the what we call the lot

size of one that the terms design are the terms and conditions of the whatever

the sale or transaction is are customized to the individual the time

all the all the things that go that we now do on that the kind of investment

one makes in buying an automobile in terms of selection and others could go

down to something as small as a book of matches or a wristwatch we just will

have so much more technology be so much more customized they don't think we have

to worry about the information coming to us mean drowned in it because we just will be able to look for it wherever we

wanted now the other side of that story

however is that not only will we be able we as individuals be able to look

wherever we want in the world everyone in the world will also I think be able

to look at us whether we like it or not I can imagine something Saul said which

is important glass thinking about glasses as a

computer I can imagine if I'm a decade

from now coming to such a conference with perhaps a pair of video cameras on

my glasses connected to my cellular telephone and earphone people I don't

recognize can be matched up either through their voice and and perhaps a

database like the one that we get here with the pictures so I know who you are but this information will automatically

go to my home computer and so just as

the person in the small village grocery store knew that you had gotten watch

your milk today or something of this sort every every other trend every

transaction that you make in a much larger world will become public as well

simply by people observing it's not just the question of someone taking your

credit card and comparing it to the the barcode in the supermarket and then

deciding that you bought a in a box of chocolate today or something

so this personalization I think will change our world dramatically and in

doing so the term revolution which we've thrown about will really be hitting us

in a few years and at that point people

businesses and countries as in all revolutions will have the opportunities

for changes in their position and ladders so economic and social echelons

will change not for everybody not always

up but they will change let me ask a

couple questions of the panel let me

start with you are know the do you think advertising and the whole advertising

industry as we know it is going to have

vast vast changes anybody else can pipe in there too actually I thought that

question was answered right at the beginning which is in some sense

advertising will be disappear because everything the the distinction between

advertising and entertainment will disappear I mean we see this already in

paper catalogs don't we some of the catalogs I get already beginning to have

text in them they become infamous infomercials I mean a magazine that I

buy or the the catalog I get from Land's End are beginning to look more and more

alike and as those you know as those to

merge the the creative or attractive packaging of information the kinds of

things people do in movie studios I think will just be so much part of

everyday life the reason we will tolerate it I suppose is again what was

already spoken about is customization because the only advertising you'll ever

be looking at is is something you might be interested in so I think advertising

will be an enormous part of our life but it will merge with all these other information part and entities and I'm

not sure really will even recognize it as different Sony now does a catalogue

which is which they sell as a magazine yeah John space talking in front of

engineers and scientists or was no better but the the fact is that when I

first came to the United States I worked on Madison Avenue and of the dollar spent on products in those days 75 cents

was spent on advertising and 25 cents were spent on promotion and today 75

cents is spent on promotion and 25 cents on advertising so there's been a tremendous rift a shift in in

expenditures if you just stop for a second and think about automobile racing

now carries 10 billion dollars worth of advertising worldwide from Grand Prix

racing down to sponsored Club events so that's money that used to go into much

more traditional venues so I think that advertising per se is always changing

and I think that it's going to be just as important a lubricant to industry as

always but it's going to be more in the control of the recipients and it was in

the past yes I misspoke there's my your viewing

of mine of what advertising is somewhat different ultimately I see ad may have a

different word for it what would you call something which is narrowcast to one person is that that may not be

advertising me promotion or sales or something I see that what dependent if

mercedes-benz wanted to send me a message because they knew that the

mileage on my BMW was such I would be making a change that would be an intrusive advertisement said to the

world through my device I'm interested in buying a car than it would be a useful information okay but the point is

they see my point would be that if you think if somehow you indicated you were

just your action will signal Mercedes

theirs without you having to say anything that's a is that is that

transparency in the other direction which I think reduces the distinction for me anyway well all of the things

that I'm working on and the companies like general magic that I'm working with

have all decided that the only way to save our souls is to have mail

boxes in in the cloud above our heads so that one can be labeled private one can

be labeled junk and that one can filter out most of the things that one doesn't

want to get like messages during

breakfast about hygiene products while

I'm eating my corn flakes I'd like to avoid if I could both now and in the

electronic future business transaction

of advertising will become explicit where now it's implicit right now an advertiser surreptitiously gets

information about my preferences or past behavior and then in a none connect

being from New York that's difficult that's a very important point I hope

you'll repeat it he's known for this I

was saying that the current advertising economy is one that is uncontrolled

information about your behavior your preferences your past consumption is

surreptitiously obtained by those interested in advertisement or promotion

and then the advertisement and promotion received by you is also an uncontrolled

commercial event in the future you should be able to control and sell

information about yourself and enter into an explicit arrangement where you

get the advertising that you want and in fact you might choose to get unpleasant

advertising at inconvenient times if you're well rewarded for getting it and

that's where that explicit nature of the transaction is what I think is coming

why let's be quickly and then there's some really excellent questions and I'd

like to move it along - we only have 15 minutes interesting that once they asked

McLuhan why don't you read psychology

books and use psychological terms he was a in English literary critic and he made

up his own terms for many of his ideas and very difficult to understand and he

said well psychologists are studying rats

I look at advertisers they are the ones who are studying human beings

and if you think about whenever embedded

in a culture were embedded in advertising the and the dominant forces

in the culture have always been able to afford the best artists to do it so the

the advertising in the Middle Ages and the Renaissance were stained glass

windows and frescoes which we think of as art today but in fact they were

advertising for the dominant belief system of the time if you think of it

from that standpoint you can see the rich that's a stretch it's not a stretch

okay that's not a stretch think of what

they're selling and think of the context in which it was was given and so we're

always embedded in in the systems of communication trying to convince us of

one thing or another one of the interesting things that happened with the printing press was that people could

take books away with them out of the

larger scale social context and think thoughts that were outside of the social

context that led to an enormous difference in the number of different

pathways that human thought took in the Renaissance and the age of enlightenment

and I think the most important thing

here since we're television and this global network McLuhan called it a

global village it's back to a kind of a glow village culture when you're

embedded in somebody else's advertising the most important thing to be able to

do is to be able to take information that you're interested in away so you

can think about it as much as possible outside of this dominating set of highly

funded ideas there's quite a number of

questions as you can see piling up here so let's try to rapidly go through at

least a few before we come to a close of this meeting I'm going to pick up the

last one because it seems to touch on a point that Alan was just making

tribalism seems essential to humans what will the new revolution do to tribalism

anybody want to tell you already tribes forming around the online services that

exist in the United States if you are a subscriber to CompuServe or one of the

internet forums there are some very

compact and solid groups of people who

all gather around specific issues there are groups formed on the internet of

people whose parents have Alzheimer's and they respond to one another in a

very intense way very narrow focused and that's a new form of tribalism in some

way places like the well on the internet I think are places where tribes gather

they're like watering holes okay one more simple answer I would think is that

tribalism was limited geographically in

the past and I think one simple thing is in the future tribes can extend through

time and space more conveniently so the formation of tribes be less limited so

be probably less imagination societies

in non tribal societies is that in tribal societies the point of view of

everyone is the point of view of the tribe that's the major difference Middle

Ages was much more of a tribal society than we have now so I think the special

interest groups may not be the same thing as tribes but I think that if you

go to South Central Los Angeles or certain areas in New York you will find

modern tribalism as people try to find a

franchise in a world that they feel

completely cut off from that's much more tribalism than just being interested in

the same topic could the panel comment

on the French mini tale experience or would the panel comment on you have the

right to say no the mini mini tell many

tell dangerous dangerous question nobody

wants to comment okay I think there we go ask west comment

it's Buddhist or something it is it is

it was a good first step onto something which is going to come very much larger

and and much more much more useful as

more media abroad in it is after all confined to a relatively simple

alphanumeric format one one gets information in many media at the same

time the system become far richer often

first in one respect that it proves as

my colleague on the Left said that sex sells and that most of the new

technologies are driven by pureeing interest and we never like to talk about

that but v8 VHS is a standard in the

United States because pornographers use that rather than beta which is a better

technology there are examples in every place you can imagine so minitel allowed

people to reach out and touch each other in very naughty ways quite successfully

thank you John

okay what equipment and communication

facilities will the household on average

income unless in other words I guess

well average income or less I guess it says have to participate that to have to

have to participate in the Information Age okay well it could be almost any I'm

sorry Craig first well I think it's the wrong question let me comment in the

question and then what I hope would be the right question because the equipment is the least of it my home at the moment

has so many computers there in my refrigerator and my air conditioner and

my toaster and my television and my automobile and so the equipment is the

least of it and will get cheaper and cheaper to me the the major expenses and

to be concerned about Lisa V lower income families is the information in

the services it's the royalties how much is it going to really cost to use a an

extremely effective education program that someone may have invested in that's

going to be the big cost that limits whether everyone gets it or not this is

an important point and we talked about the role of government this is not being terribly important the if the

information access is going to be charged for if it's going to be very

hard to use then the system may fail on a social basis but I see no reason why

to use a New York example a homebound

mother who was just sent her children

off to school should be able to walk up to her television set which would cost

no more than today's machine and be able to say is there any are there any

cleaning or childcare jobs along the

number 25 bus starting at 10 o'clock today and be interviewed within five or

ten minutes by a prospective employer with no more training than that and with

no more per capita investment now that is the that is a question of entitlement

in the United States we have Universal telephone service as a public policy

now that was this is a 1500 year old

instrument to just go one more step that

access to that kind of information becomes a public policy government can

do this at relatively modest cost sixty-year-old the point I was trying to

make earlier about newspaper delivery along the Kings Highway is exactly this

newspapers have a right there protected by copyright and they're protected by

the First Amendment rights to some degree in the United States when you transfer that information to a telephone

system it is a private road not a public highway and the the fact of the matter

is that private roads can edit and filter for their own purposes the

information that runs along them the rights of the publisher and the rights of the reader are not exactly the same

in the electronic Highway in the States today as they are on the on the roads

I'm gonna ask two more okay do it quickly those we get two more

quick one that I can't ask him to do oh I'm sorry right because in there there's

a major debate going on in the United States at the moment about what is

universal service for the next 50 years and it's fairly clear that it is not

just telecommunications the point I was making I think is the same as yours in

focusing on the information the information services you were assuming that government would pay and provide

some minimum the example you raised I'm not making that assumption

it's really quite unclear governments everywhere are strapped for cash and the

public seems quite unwilling to pay the extra bill so the question is who will

pay so that lower-income people can get the services not the telecommunications

and that's an open question well but the government comes out because

using information to make the economically deprived portions of

society more economically productive is a win for the government that is not in

that cost that is much cheaper to provide information which allows this

woman to get a job during the day than to continue to pay welfare cost welfare

in the United States is enormous and she's taking a small amount of money and using that a little more efficiently the

biggest employer of in New York City today is welfare inspectors as the

biggest single source of employment so

its influence an information job that could be replaced by a machine let me go

back to an issue that in a sense Craig dismissed and that's in this question

here will direct democracy as opposed to representative democracy be possible

thanks to a new interactive information system actually I hope not

because I I can just imagine through the

medium of television getting people all excited and somebody says let's go bomb

X yes or no and everybody in the heat of

the moment votes yes and that is a mandate of the people I think that in

one of the things that one of the basis

of democracy was cool thought rather than just hot-blooded oratory and the

cool thought was done through essays and longer deliberations and I think

building in any in any system where you want to find out what the will of the

people is and try and make policy based on it it can't be a direct route it

should not be a direct route it should be one in which there's both hot

thinking and cool thinking to come up with a policy in the end you know to

come up as a very very controversial issue in the next half it sounds like a

great idea for about it's going to be a second issue one quick last question what does

the panel see is the future of reading books and newspapers well I think the

I think there are two answers to that I'll take the book one the the book has

existed in lots of different forms in history I think the most important thing about the book is has been the distance

between the way information is represented in a book and the world of

the census I think that's been extremely important in a lot of different areas

and has fostered new kinds of thinking just in the last few hundred years that

have never existed on the earth before so I think that in any new medium that

we design we have to understand that that kind of thought which we could

calls symbolic thought thought that is detached cool thought has to be provided

for just as an example anybody who has a

computer today with a CRT on it probably notices that to read anything longer

than our nose bumper sticker you print

it out and the reason is that the CRT was designed to be looked at all the way

across the room with a very narrow viewing angle when you look at it up

close it causes your eyes to jump all over the periphery of the screen and it

causes discomfort and in about 10% of the people that actually calls causes

vertigo so the CRT is antagonistic to

text which it has been the major instrument of our civilization of the

last three or four hundred years so when we for instance when we put computers

into schools willy-nilly and think that we're going to substitute for books by

simply putting text on the screens we're in for a big shock because those screens

are not even close to being as readable a flat screen like a liquid crystal

display the new ones don't have that problem and I think that reading in the

sense of being making symbolic renderings of things that do not involve

iconic images associated with them will

carry on for a long time even as it gets translated to this new

this new technology John how about answering newspapers newspaper and book

publisher and of course as a very minor stockholder I hope that they continue to

be profitable and successful I think the

books will succeed and in the future as will newspapers it's just that the

proportion of people getting that information and from electronic means

will continue to increase today newspapers are flourishing in some

societies but if you see where the television channels increase and

newspaper readership usually declines and so most people today in America get

their news from television not from newspapers although many people buy and

scan them I think that I like to drive

old cars that's just a quaint thing and I would like to have books around

because of that activity and the very product themselves are appealing to me

as well as the information that's in them so books will always be around it's

just that when you have 90 million people in the United States judged to be

unable to read the future looks pretty grim for the text and written word okay

I think paper is an excellent flat panel display the cost is low the resolution

is high the power consumption is zero and it will be around for a very long

time the places where we will see some inroads is where you want

personalization hence more at the news and then at the book end because it's

still not economical to print a newspaper in quantities of one or a book

in quantities of one you also see where you in nonfiction work where you have

directories where you need information and you need other kinds of access and

slices through it it's certainly going to be better to have it electronically

than in print I want to

look at the clock resistor yes if we look at the progress in technology we

have gone from the four kilobyte memory

4000 bit to four million bits without any further change in physical science

we will go to four gigabits that is another factor of 1000 that is to say

technology progress from the beginning of integrated circuits to now is halfway

there in a geometric sense so I do not believe that the width of my successors

will somehow be baffled by building a printer a cheap enough printer to give

every person in the world a customized piece of paper the question is whether I

think Allen was the one that pointed out the question is whether the audience and

there will be an elite audience for it whether that audience will be large or vitiate 'add by the mindless programming

that will grind other people that other

people's intellect downward so there's a social danger that I can't really

address as a technologist but for those who will want to read and I hope I

certainly hope my children will be among those that will be books I'm sure I

would like to thank the audience I would like to thank them for their questions

and I want to thank a truly remarkable panel thank you very very much

[Applause]

yes

[Music]

Difference between revisions of "Alan Kay at World Economic Forum, Davos, Switzerland (1994)"

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@@ Line 3: / Line 3: @@
 |id=3YMFIeLkXv0
 |alignment=left
-|autoresize=false
+|autoresize=true
 }}
+<subtitle id='00:00:00'></subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:00:27'>good morning</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:00:38'>welcome to the morning session my name</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:00:45'>is Richard Saul Wurman and I will</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:00:50'>introduce the panelists as they speak I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:00:58'>have three premises I would like to share with you and then I will ask the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:01:05'>panel on my right to respond to them or</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:01:10'>a rift away from them or say what they would like to say hopefully inspired or</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:01:17'>to counter a kind of dict what I'm saying premise number one it goes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:01:26'>without saying that we are sending</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:01:31'>vastly we have the ability to send vastly vast quantities of information</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:01:37'>faster and cheaper they were sending</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:01:41'>them in many ways through the air through wires through the ground that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:01:47'>we're storing more things in smaller spaces and that the hardware that is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:01:53'>being developed is getting smaller and smaller and hopefully cheaper and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:01:57'>cheaper doing more and more things and it's going to interact with each other</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:01'>on demand we're going to be able to carry it in our hands and our pockets</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:06'>maybe even in our glasses that goes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:10'>without saying we we are in the middle of that it will continue on for the next</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:16'>few years it's not a point of discussion we have all read infinite number of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:20'>articles on hardware software of multimedia storage speed information</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:25'>highways back roads side rows dirt roads all kinds of things the second premise</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:32'>as a result of getting all this stuff all this data faster being able to store</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:39'>more of it there will be created even</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:43'>though it doesn't exist now a viable</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:47'>group people and companies which I call the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:52'>information architects they will take this information and make it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:56'>understandable this doesn't exist now except in isolated situations but this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:03:03'>group of people these corporations these people who will be in the instruction</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:03:07'>business and the understanding business these information architects will occur</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:03:13'>because there's money in it and they have to it has to happen so in the next 10 years there's going to be a new</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:03:18'>business the third premise is really what I am</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:03:24'>addressing to these four gentlemen on my right and that is if information is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:03:31'>accessible and understandable if indeed</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:03:37'>we can with no anxiety with great ease</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:03:43'>find the answers to our questions push</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:03:51'>buttons that just tell us a couple it tells some machine two or three things</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:03:56'>about ourselves and get the car we should really buy or find out</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:01'>information about law or about medicine or about politics if we can uncover and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:09'>understand things about government and bills that are going to be passed if we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:15'>can vote shop</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:19'>bypass travel agents is this the Chinese</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:23'>curse I curse you I curse you may you get everything you want do we indeed</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:30'>make such changes to our economy to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:34'>existing groups in our economy do we bypass advertising do we bypass many</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:41'>parts of many professional life do we get anarchy because of understanding of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:45'>government do we reveal the secrets that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:49'>have been that have people have held you know like shamans the power of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:53'>information what is the result of one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:57'>getting more and more information - having it understandable</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:05:03'>what is the result of this kind of public information being made public now</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:05:08'>this is what we've always wanted this is what people talk about this is the the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:05:13'>dream that I've had for a long part of my life I've talked about public</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:05:17'>information should be made public and the second public means available</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:05:21'>accessible and understandable but then what happens those are the three</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:05:28'>premises this morning I think this is a serious and interesting issue into</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:05:34'>communications today and the four gentlemen on my right eye it's easy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:05:43'>you're supposed to say this upfront that they're remarkable and special but they really are remarkable and special I'm</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:05:51'>going to lead off because he seemed more</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:05:55'>awake than the others with our token</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:05:59'>Welshman the president of Neddie and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:06:05'>most people probably haven't heard an eddy but it's it's this division of News</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:06:10'>Corporation that is taking news</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:06:15'>corporation happily quick kicking and screaming into the electronic age he's a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:06:22'>strategist strategist and an evangelist</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:06:26'>I think of sorts and he will say something disrespectful after he starts</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:06:31'>about me mr. Evans good morning I don't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:06:37'>know how awake I am and I'm not sure how much I can cover of that long agenda in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:06:44'>the time let's take a shot at this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:06:50'>clearly the idea of people getting more</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:06:56'>information is problematic because most</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:01'>of the problems today is that there's too much advice and too much information and the result is stagnation or people</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:08'>ending up as couch potatoes and and the proposal that there will be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:16'>information architects who groom and select and bring all of this vast</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:22'>information into a usable and useful size and format is it's clear because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:30'>that's what we call editing the difference between myself and many of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:34'>the people speaking at these conferences is that I'm a publisher and I'm somebody</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:38'>who's worked on the creative side of trying to write stories and trying to edit them and then trying to run</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:43'>magazines and find the money to do it with and so the difficulty for me as I'm</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:49'>developing software to do exactly what Richard was proposing is that unlike a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:54'>company that is operating in Silicon Valley in California building utopia I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:00'>have to be careful that I don't destroy what we have at News Corporation before</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:04'>I start because our money is made here and now and I'm working in there and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:09'>then and it's how to get from here to there and certain things appear to be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:14'>fundamental the first thing that appears to be fundamental is that products to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:18'>survive in this information age have to have three criteria they have to be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:23'>digital they have to be narrowcast or they personalized and they have to be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:28'>interactive and so the first way of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:34'>reducing this vast amount excuse me this vast amount of information into a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:39'>meaningful size is through the process of agent Rhee which is in simple terms</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:46'>devising a piece of software that understands the user the understanding</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:51'>is based upon criteria that you the user</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:55'>put into the software a profile what you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:59'>liked and disliked about very simple things now the work I'm doing is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:09:03'>initially in the travel area because that's a safe area because it's a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:09:07'>business we're not in so if I mess it up we don't hurt ourselves but secondly</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:09:12'>more importantly it's an area full of commissions and royalty payments because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:09:18'>you can't deliver things today with $30 a delivery costs that are worth a dollar</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:09:24'>The Wall Street Journal delivered by Wireless in the United States they would cost about $80 to deliver you might</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:09:30'>charge 75 cents for it but the delivery cost would kill it and so one has to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:09:37'>have small amounts of information which are highly valuable for which other people are willing to pay you for the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:09:43'>transaction either hotels or Airlines or car rental people and so that you can</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:09:47'>deliver the product in a subsidized way which is the way we've always delivered</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:09:51'>information in the traditional analog sense those of us will crush trees and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:09:56'>smearing kana to make newspapers do so in a very highly subsidized way with</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:00'>advertising it would seem to me that in a an electronic Information Age sense</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:06'>the idea of imposition the idea of forcing people to watch advertisements</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:11'>when I the publisher wants you to watch them is now over the remote control that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:17'>allows you to misuse television would</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:22'>allow you to avoid commercials on television very easily and any form of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:27'>electronic device that receives information will have a hard time</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:32'>imposing advertising and so the future is going to be made up of pure</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:37'>advertising and transactional processing and by that I mean people use that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:43'>remote control on television to avoid advertisements but they use the same</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:47'>device to go and watch an hour-long advertisement on some product like car</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:52'>polish or hair dryers or or beauty</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:56'>treatments and so advertising when we want it is compelling and when we want</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:01'>it we want it and when it's forced on us at a time that we may not want it is a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:07'>thing of the past and so I think that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:11'>one at one of the areas we ought to look at is how do we change the economic</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:17'>model along this process how does that slowly take place home shopping netwerk</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:22'>some television today are very early examples of this and once you start to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:28'>put Home Shopping Network behind soap operas so that in the future you'll be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:33'>able to see a product demonstrated in a more natural setting</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:37'>if you're a woman and you see somebody wearing a dress in the soap opera you like you should be able to see it in all</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:42'>its colors maybe see yourself wearing it if you've digitized yourself with your</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:46'>home video camera into the set and then purchase it by some wireless or or long</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:52'>line transaction and have it delivered the next day and and those sort of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:56'>things you can see coming quite clearly the biggest problem facing the future</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:02'>and I'll try to give my friends equal time here is that there's a lot of talk</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:08'>in the United States and in Europe about cyber highways and information highways</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:12'>which frankly I think is nonsense because I think it's already here it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:16'>called AT&T in the United States and then that was copied by Sprint and then</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:20'>by MCI so we have three fairly super highways out there with a lot of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:24'>bandwidth on them so we've got the communications we have vast cable</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:28'>systems the problem is access the problems not the infrastructure the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:33'>problem is access who are the gatekeepers how are they placed there and what are the regulations that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:38'>control them because clearly the more personalized information that we have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:43'>through editing or narrowcasting the more when you require privacy and to be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:49'>protected in the way this information travels and so we need virtually common</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:54'>carriers who are prohibited from</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:58'>interfering with the free passage of our information right now as publishers the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:02'>truck that drives the newspaper to the newsstand or the book to the bookstore</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:06'>or the movie to the movie house is not violated by the transportation a truck</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:12'>driver can't change the newspaper a bookstore can't change the book it may</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:16'>decide not to sell it but the editing process remains hours and somehow that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:22'>has to remain in the process at the other end the difference between today</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:28'>where we as bit radiators where we as publishers issue one too many the future</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:33'>is where people who have high technology</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:37'>in their hands the power transfers from us at the center to the user at the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:42'>peripheral and that the user will reach into the center for what they want and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:46'>that the transportation back and forth to the user</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:50'>must be sacred as it is currently between us and the distribution networks</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:58'>thank you John our next speaker is yet</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:14:02'>another legend it's Alan K Apple fellow thank you and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:14:10'>he has an arm that is broken and he won't tell us why too boring a story one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:14:18'>of the ways that I've tried to think about what's going to happen in the next</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:14:23'>few years is partly in the context of a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:14:28'>dream that many people started having about 30 years ago</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:14:32'>in the u.s. it was sponsored by an organization called ARPA the Advanced</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:14:37'>Research Projects Agency and the idea</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:14:41'>was that somehow computers were likely</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:14:46'>to become symbiotic partners some complementary aid for thinking and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:14:54'>doing and that that partnership would be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:14:58'>affected through networks so this is a very old idea in fact I think actually</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:03'>dr. pinzhi has probably remembers better but I think the first time a computer</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:07'>and telecommunications were used together was in 1938 with stibitz as</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:13'>complex was basically a pocket calculator the size of a room made out</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:18'>of relays and you could dial in from home and get it to calculate things for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:23'>you so there's the whole notion of combining these technologies have been</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:27'>around for a very long time the thing that has haunted me for many</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:33'>years was 25 years ago or so I visited</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:37'>one of the great libraries in New York City it was in the middle of a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:41'>burned-out slum and nobody was in that library although I was fully functional</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:46'>and free and open to the public so when</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:51'>we talk about access being the problem I don't exactly agree I think there's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:55'>already access in many countries to a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:00'>wealth of in nation held in old media and what is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:06'>lacking is a value system that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:10'>understands that the great powers are to be had by availing oneself of that kind</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:16'>of information and putting all of that information into digital form and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:22'>broadcasting it on fiber-optic networks and even making it interactive is not</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:27'>going to help that much because there is another part a social part that has to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:33'>be thought through my friend Neil postman likes to make the distinction</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:38'>between a technology and a medium there's a for instance television as a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:43'>technology and American television is a medium as you will find the more you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:48'>imported into to Europe it's a particularly of using a technology</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:53'>computer is a technology and one of the things the visionaries at ARPA wanted to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:59'>find out is what kind of medium should we make it so that it could be a partner</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:17:04'>for humans that implied that it should be made interactive and we should learn</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:17:08'>about how to make friendly user interfaces we should learn something</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:17:13'>about how people learn when they deal with interactive media and so forth and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:17:19'>this problem is still not solved another</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:17:25'>problem I have when I think about this is the what you might call the junk</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:17:31'>media phenomena now this is much older than electronic media flow bear in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:17:39'>Madame Bovary</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:17:43'>characterized Madame bovary's problem as</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:17:47'>reading too many romance novels she thought of as the junk media of the day</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:17:52'>and I'm sure his term might have been couched pomme de la terre for what her</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:17:57'>condition was so that the idea is that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:01'>any of these media can be made into sugar water and people will find ways to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:07'>do it and to spread them around so you can think of the tendency</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:13'>in all technological efforts sort of two</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:17'>things go on side by side with people trying to do good one is one is what I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:21'>call inverse vandalism which is the opposite of destroying something it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:25'>making something just because you can and a lot of the products that people</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:30'>are sold today are things that were made just because they could be made and then</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:35'>marketing people figure out how to make them attractive and sort of the partner</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:41'>of that I called narco engineering narco engineering is making something that is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:47'>addictive and habit-forming by catering</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:51'>to tendencies that human beings like for instance fat sugar salt we like</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:56'>flickering images and people will home in on that as well and so the there is a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:02'>vast potential for creating an entirely</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:06'>new set of junk media transmitted at the speed of light and in fact a couple of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:11'>weeks ago I was at vice president Gore's information Highway summit I was on a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:16'>panel there and I would characterize the majority the participants there who are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:22'>all CEOs of large corporations as trying</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:26'>to find out what the next sugar water would be what electronics sugar water</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:30'>would be and being very anxious to be the first ones to be able to manufacture</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:34'>and dispense it now I think we can do better than that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:38'>and I don't believe that you should try and legislate junk out of existence</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:43'>because one person's junk is another person's content I don't think you can</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:48'>define that but I think the people who are designing the media of the future</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:53'>should also think about what serious discourse is and wonder whether the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:58'>medium can handle it for example in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:04'>December of 1775 Thomas Paine wrote a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:08'>pamphlet called common sense and it was a 50 page argument contrasting</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:15'>monarchies and the possibility of demo</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:19'>democratic governments and in January</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:23'>they started printing this 1776 and over</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:27'>the next five or six months they printed about 600,000 copies which is a large</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:32'>press run even by today's standards there are only one and a half million</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:36'>colonists in the thirteen colonies back then and so the press run actually</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:41'>covered about half of the colonists or almost all of the families and a large</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:47'>percentage of those colonists could read and understand an extended argument done</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:54'>without any pictures and most historians believe that that document was the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:01'>pivotal document in the acceptance of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:05'>the Declaration of Independence and then the federal system of the Constitution a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:10'>few years later so this now we think about trying to do that today in the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:15'>United States you'd have to have a press run of about 120 million copies which is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:20'>almost unfeasible unless you published</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:24'>it in a newspaper less people in the United States percentage from a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:29'>percentage standpoint can understand a 50 page argument now and if you tried to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:34'>put it on television which is our mass medium today it won't work because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:38'>television can't carry a 50 page argument television is not about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:43'>arguments it's about presentations and so the bug in inventing television was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:49'>not that television can be filled with junk the bug in inventing television was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:55'>that television is not good for serious discourse involved in being a mass</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:22:01'>medium for a Democratic Society I think</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:22:05'>that is going to happen again in the next five or six years again it's not</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:22:10'>that it's impossible to make good media</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:22:15'>but what is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:22:21'>okay once you say that I was good tell</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:22:25'>Alan listening to his 50 pages I would think that if someone of our public one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:22:31'>of our leaders today attempted to put 50 alphanumeric characters on a bumper</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:22:36'>sticker his advisers would say that would be too difficult for people to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:22:40'>read right we're down to fortune cookies now in the US and you can expect that to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:22:45'>happen in Europe as American television invades I think the French are quite</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:22:49'>right to try and keep it out so so in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:22:55'>conclusion what we're going to what we're setting ourselves up for is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:23:00'>another technology but we haven't taken</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:23:05'>that which is much easier to do than inventing the media that is going to be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:23:09'>the purpose of the technology in the direction of the technology we can't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:23:14'>stop technology I don't want to stop technology I love it I'm a musician and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:23:18'>I use technology all the time to express art through and what I'm saying is that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:23:25'>in the next five years we should pay a special attention to making sure that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:23:29'>the media that goes on this technology is capable of serious discourse thank</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:23:35'>you know I decided not to decided not to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:23:44'>third participant this morning is Craig fields who is currently the chairman and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:23:51'>CEO of MCC I can't quickly pronounce the name of a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:23:56'>company but it's in your booklet and he was the former director of DARPA the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:04'>Advanced Research of the Defense Department the United States government</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:08'>even though I got the words out of order anyway Craig the first time I've</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:13'>regretted that our name has multisyllabic words in it but thank you for the introduction</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:18'>I find the analogy between the information infrastructure and the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:22'>transportation infrastructure to be a fairly poor analogy but an instructive one in some ways if you think about the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:28'>transportation infrastructure it is much more than a road system for example</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:33'>if we only had a road system and did not have gas stations and fast-food chains</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:38'>and trucks and automobiles and highway</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:42'>police and maps and drivers education and social conventions for rules of the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:49'>road and much more we wouldn't have a transportation infrastructure and that's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:53'>not even mentioning the air and the water transportation as well in the same</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:58'>way information infrastructure is much more than telecommunications certainly</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:03'>for the telecommunications we can believe that getting bits from here to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:07'>there will become a commodity like buying MIPS is today in computing that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:12'>in the telecommunications part of the information infrastructure it's possible</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:17'>to warp space and time distances shrink and you can be real time or not real</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:22'>time that you can connect people and computer programs and information of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:27'>course it's multimedia that's not even noteworthy who would want mono media of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:32'>course it's secure who would want unsecure but to me the interesting parts</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:38'>of information infrastructure are not at the telecommunications level as Ricky</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:42'>suggested earlier but in fact are the things above it the directories the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:47'>libraries the brokerage services the expert commentators the pundits the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:52'>training courses all of those additional things without which you don't actually</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:56'>have an information infrastructure one of the consequences of the growth of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:01'>information infrastructure is the growth of information commerce buying and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:05'>selling information which is the topic of our discussion this morning and I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:09'>expect there are new functions that are going to grow up we see the seeds of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:13'>each of these functions today but they will sprout what do I mean I mean</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:17'>critics and reviewers I mean advertisers I agree with your</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:22'>comments that advertisement will not be the involuntary experience it is today</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:26'>but will be more personalized and directed by the receiver of the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:30'>advertisement I see brokers and brokerage services perhaps people</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:35'>perhaps computer programs to help connect buyers and sellers to help</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:39'>negotiate prices it's helped get group deals some of these brokers exist today</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:45'>some of you perhaps use either the Moses service or the fast service that operate</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:50'>in the United States both are automated brokerage services in one case for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:54'>connecting buyers of integrated circuits to producers of integrated circuits in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:58'>another case buyers of electronic components to suppliers of electronic</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:02'>components and everyone gets a better deal I see locators to help you find things</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:08'>because in fact it'll all be there but finding it will be quite challenging and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:12'>in fact there should be a wide range of finding things from the very directed</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:16'>search to the opportunity for browsing this is somewhat similar to the personal</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:20'>shopper that some of us employ at Christmastime to help us get our gifts</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:24'>browsing is something in information infrastructure that I think is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:28'>underappreciated one of my hobbies is cooking and baking and a few years ago I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:34'>invested my own time to put all of my recipes into a computer it was the worst</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:38'>experience of my life not only putting it in but then later precisely finding</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:43'>what I wanted losing the opportunity to browse was a big mistake</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:47'>and that has to be part of this location service and then lastly going to Ricky</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:52'>your point about understanding the sort of super concept of the editor to try to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:57'>make things understandable as always there'll be a tension between the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:01'>originating producer of somewhere between data and information and the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:05'>editors I know journalists today who are convinced their editors do nothing but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:09'>destroy their stories and editors who are convinced that their writers give</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:13'>them a random series of consonants and vowels and then they have to produce the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:18'>information in this world of information commerce competition will be the same I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:24'>believe or along the same lines as competition for products namely time to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:28'>market price quality and variety and my</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:32'>own excitement is focused on that last word variety namely being able to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:37'>produce a wide range of forms of information and of information because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:42'>in the end people really want answers and the ultimate is a one on one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:46'>transaction between a supplier of information and a consumer and that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:50'>consumer gets something that no one else has ever gotten now you suggested that we focus Ricky on</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:55'>two areas this information commerce it affects government as it and as it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:00'>affects what I'll call normal Commerce and in goods and services</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:04'>let me speak of government for a moment or two then go on to commerce and then</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:08'>I'll be done as you indicated I I did work in government federal government in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:12'>the United States for 17 years and the speculation that you raised was that if</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:17'>the public was better aware of loopholes and tax breaks and lobbying and some of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:23'>our laws that in fact there might or might not be some fundamental change I actually am of the view that there</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:28'>wouldn't be fundamental change the fucked the federal government in the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:32'>United States particularly the political part is one of the most efficient information processing mechanisms I've</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:37'>ever seen all aimed at public officials getting reelected and so one person's loophole</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:44'>is another person's entitlement and one person's tax break is another person's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:48'>benefit and lobbying is just free expression so that I think that the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:53'>system wouldn't change very much in these circumstances but time will tell</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:57'>on the other side of the coin of Commerce buying goods and services there</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:03'>I think there are fundamental changes that are here now and are coming at an</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:07'>accelerating rate based on information infrastructure and information Commerce</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:11'>we're seeing a revolution in the whole fabric of Industry actually around the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:16'>world certainly not just in the United States going from single companies to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:20'>multi companies where people are outsourcing and depending on suppliers</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:24'>entering of entering a very sort of fragile nonlinear system where very</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:29'>small advantages lead to very big changes in market share and where more</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:35'>and more Commerce is in services rather than goods in fact in the manufacturing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:39'>companies I know 9 out of 10 people don't manufacture but in fact do</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:43'>services and we're seeing a growth in a global free trade in such services</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:48'>that's what supported by the infant by the information infrastructure and by</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:53'>information Commerce it means much greater efficiency it means the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:58'>opportunity to avoid waste in making things people might or might not want</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:31:02'>and lastly it means something that's important to me it goes back to the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:31:06'>comment about variety then leaving opportunity for people getting custom</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:31:10'>products there's no reason why every should get the same thing as everyone else you should be able to get exactly</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:31:15'>what you want and at a low cost and that's what's happening I would leave</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:31:19'>you with just one heuristic for thinking about technology and information</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:31:23'>technology in particular namely in areas like this the opportunity to produce</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:31:28'>custom products it really means that everybody can get the privileges that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:31:32'>previously it only be enjoyed by royalty or by wealthy people and to me that's a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:31:37'>means a major step forward thank you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:31:42'>Craig just gave a one-hour speech in about seven minutes we have yet one more</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:31:51'>Nobel Prize laureate aren't opens at Penn's iist Penzias NZ Penzias right</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:31:59'>right okay did it who runs Bell Labs in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:04'>Murray Hill New Jersey - okay if we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:10'>start about say a couple of words perhaps about the information market I'm</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:15'>struck by the fact that people regard this as a new phenomenon if we think</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:21'>about what most people still do today most of us certainly our children or</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:28'>college students everyone feels entitled at least until recently to spend the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:33'>time between graduation from the University until retirement sitting</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:37'>behind a desk now what else do those people do other than this editing of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:43'>information we say it's creative but surely every time someone writes a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:47'>report for one's boss justifying a budget over and is creative information</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:52'>creativity and editing as well simple numbers 200,000 milli and I dare not use</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:58'>the word billion here because different countries have different meanings of that word but 200,000 million sheets of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:33:04'>paper put into filing cabinets in United States every year so enormous amounts of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:33:09'>resource is already going into information and this information</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:33:15'>shortfall the fact that the large majority of our labor force is now</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:33:21'>already engaged in making this minority</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:33:25'>of people actually make things productive by getting them from from the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:33:32'>one place to another by overcoming all</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:33:36'>these terrible problems we have moving information around well until recently</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:33:42'>of course that seemed to be it seemed to be a problem and computers by themselves</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:33:48'>didn't do much with it the telephone even come from that part of the world</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:33:52'>didn't help all that much but about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:33:56'>three or four years ago telecommunications and data processing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:34:00'>came together we see it in productivity</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:34:04'>figures that non manufacturing productivity United States for example</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:34:09'>was flat essentially zero for a generation and has now been climbing steadily for three or four years we see</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:34:16'>direct access to information not yet</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:34:20'>here but coming soon now the notion of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:34:26'>drowning in fire hoses of information is still a transmission model if we really</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:34:32'>understand that control will ultimately come to the person seeking information</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:34:36'>the size of the information out there is no longer threatening the machine which</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:34:44'>we used to call a computer because this was a name given to human beings about 50 years ago people computers were</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:34:50'>people who sat behind desk calculators and push buttons and that term was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:34:56'>finally given to the first of the string manipulation machines that that Alan</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:02'>talked about but that data process then became their processing and other things</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:07'>but today the computer is really an information interface and as people</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:12'>begin to have access to other people access to machines and access to data</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:19'>the information that they need and able</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:23'>to extract it from this not information superhighway because of connectivity is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:28'>not important but the information supermarket that exists out there and collect the item they want at the price</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:34'>they want or the service they want at the terms they want I think the world is going to change</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:39'>tremendously now there are some problems</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:45'>perhaps but I think I don't see that there's really will be a difficulty in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:50'>the when when the information shortfalls disappear in the what we call the lot</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:56'>size of one that the terms design are the terms and conditions of the whatever</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:01'>the sale or transaction is are customized to the individual the time</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:06'>all the all the things that go that we now do on that the kind of investment</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:11'>one makes in buying an automobile in terms of selection and others could go</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:17'>down to something as small as a book of matches or a wristwatch we just will</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:23'>have so much more technology be so much more customized they don't think we have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:28'>to worry about the information coming to us mean drowned in it because we just will be able to look for it wherever we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:33'>wanted now the other side of that story</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:37'>however is that not only will we be able we as individuals be able to look</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:42'>wherever we want in the world everyone in the world will also I think be able</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:48'>to look at us whether we like it or not I can imagine something Saul said which</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:53'>is important glass thinking about glasses as a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:58'>computer I can imagine if I'm a decade</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:02'>from now coming to such a conference with perhaps a pair of video cameras on</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:06'>my glasses connected to my cellular telephone and earphone people I don't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:11'>recognize can be matched up either through their voice and and perhaps a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:16'>database like the one that we get here with the pictures so I know who you are but this information will automatically</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:22'>go to my home computer and so just as</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:26'>the person in the small village grocery store knew that you had gotten watch</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:31'>your milk today or something of this sort every every other trend every</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:36'>transaction that you make in a much larger world will become public as well</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:41'>simply by people observing it's not just the question of someone taking your</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:45'>credit card and comparing it to the the barcode in the supermarket and then</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:50'>deciding that you bought a in a box of chocolate today or something</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:54'>so this personalization I think will change our world dramatically and in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:00'>doing so the term revolution which we've thrown about will really be hitting us</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:06'>in a few years and at that point people</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:10'>businesses and countries as in all revolutions will have the opportunities</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:16'>for changes in their position and ladders so economic and social echelons</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:20'>will change not for everybody not always</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:24'>up but they will change let me ask a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:32'>couple questions of the panel let me</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:38'>start with you are know the do you think advertising and the whole advertising</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:43'>industry as we know it is going to have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:47'>vast vast changes anybody else can pipe in there too actually I thought that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:52'>question was answered right at the beginning which is in some sense</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:57'>advertising will be disappear because everything the the distinction between</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:02'>advertising and entertainment will disappear I mean we see this already in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:07'>paper catalogs don't we some of the catalogs I get already beginning to have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:11'>text in them they become infamous infomercials I mean a magazine that I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:15'>buy or the the catalog I get from Land's End are beginning to look more and more</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:19'>alike and as those you know as those to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:23'>merge the the creative or attractive packaging of information the kinds of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:29'>things people do in movie studios I think will just be so much part of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:33'>everyday life the reason we will tolerate it I suppose is again what was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:37'>already spoken about is customization because the only advertising you'll ever</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:41'>be looking at is is something you might be interested in so I think advertising</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:47'>will be an enormous part of our life but it will merge with all these other information part and entities and I'm</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:52'>not sure really will even recognize it as different Sony now does a catalogue</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:59'>which is which they sell as a magazine yeah John space talking in front of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:40:09'>engineers and scientists or was no better but the the fact is that when I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:40:17'>first came to the United States I worked on Madison Avenue and of the dollar spent on products in those days 75 cents</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:40:25'>was spent on advertising and 25 cents were spent on promotion and today 75</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:40:30'>cents is spent on promotion and 25 cents on advertising so there's been a tremendous rift a shift in in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:40:36'>expenditures if you just stop for a second and think about automobile racing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:40:41'>now carries 10 billion dollars worth of advertising worldwide from Grand Prix</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:40:46'>racing down to sponsored Club events so that's money that used to go into much</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:40:51'>more traditional venues so I think that advertising per se is always changing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:40:56'>and I think that it's going to be just as important a lubricant to industry as</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:02'>always but it's going to be more in the control of the recipients and it was in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:07'>the past yes I misspoke there's my your viewing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:11'>of mine of what advertising is somewhat different ultimately I see ad may have a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:17'>different word for it what would you call something which is narrowcast to one person is that that may not be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:22'>advertising me promotion or sales or something I see that what dependent if</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:26'>mercedes-benz wanted to send me a message because they knew that the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:30'>mileage on my BMW was such I would be making a change that would be an intrusive advertisement said to the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:36'>world through my device I'm interested in buying a car than it would be a useful information okay but the point is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:42'>they see my point would be that if you think if somehow you indicated you were</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:48'>just your action will signal Mercedes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:52'>theirs without you having to say anything that's a is that is that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:56'>transparency in the other direction which I think reduces the distinction for me anyway well all of the things</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:01'>that I'm working on and the companies like general magic that I'm working with</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:05'>have all decided that the only way to save our souls is to have mail</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:10'>boxes in in the cloud above our heads so that one can be labeled private one can</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:15'>be labeled junk and that one can filter out most of the things that one doesn't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:19'>want to get like messages during</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:23'>breakfast about hygiene products while</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:27'>I'm eating my corn flakes I'd like to avoid if I could both now and in the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:31'>electronic future business transaction</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:39'>of advertising will become explicit where now it's implicit right now an advertiser surreptitiously gets</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:44'>information about my preferences or past behavior and then in a none connect</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:51'>being from New York that's difficult that's a very important point I hope</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:56'>you'll repeat it he's known for this I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:03'>was saying that the current advertising economy is one that is uncontrolled</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:09'>information about your behavior your preferences your past consumption is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:15'>surreptitiously obtained by those interested in advertisement or promotion</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:19'>and then the advertisement and promotion received by you is also an uncontrolled</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:24'>commercial event in the future you should be able to control and sell</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:28'>information about yourself and enter into an explicit arrangement where you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:33'>get the advertising that you want and in fact you might choose to get unpleasant</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:37'>advertising at inconvenient times if you're well rewarded for getting it and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:42'>that's where that explicit nature of the transaction is what I think is coming</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:47'>why let's be quickly and then there's some really excellent questions and I'd</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:51'>like to move it along - we only have 15 minutes interesting that once they asked</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:56'>McLuhan why don't you read psychology</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:00'>books and use psychological terms he was a in English literary critic and he made</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:08'>up his own terms for many of his ideas and very difficult to understand and he</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:12'>said well psychologists are studying rats</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:16'>I look at advertisers they are the ones who are studying human beings</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:20'>and if you think about whenever embedded</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:25'>in a culture were embedded in advertising the and the dominant forces</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:31'>in the culture have always been able to afford the best artists to do it so the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:35'>the advertising in the Middle Ages and the Renaissance were stained glass</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:39'>windows and frescoes which we think of as art today but in fact they were</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:44'>advertising for the dominant belief system of the time if you think of it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:49'>from that standpoint you can see the rich that's a stretch it's not a stretch</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:53'>okay that's not a stretch think of what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:57'>they're selling and think of the context in which it was was given and so we're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:02'>always embedded in in the systems of communication trying to convince us of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:07'>one thing or another one of the interesting things that happened with the printing press was that people could</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:12'>take books away with them out of the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:16'>larger scale social context and think thoughts that were outside of the social</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:22'>context that led to an enormous difference in the number of different</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:28'>pathways that human thought took in the Renaissance and the age of enlightenment</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:32'>and I think the most important thing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:36'>here since we're television and this global network McLuhan called it a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:40'>global village it's back to a kind of a glow village culture when you're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:44'>embedded in somebody else's advertising the most important thing to be able to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:49'>do is to be able to take information that you're interested in away so you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:54'>can think about it as much as possible outside of this dominating set of highly</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:46:04'>funded ideas there's quite a number of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:46:08'>questions as you can see piling up here so let's try to rapidly go through at</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:46:12'>least a few before we come to a close of this meeting I'm going to pick up the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:46:17'>last one because it seems to touch on a point that Alan was just making</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:46:22'>tribalism seems essential to humans what will the new revolution do to tribalism</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:46:30'>anybody want to tell you already tribes forming around the online services that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:46:35'>exist in the United States if you are a subscriber to CompuServe or one of the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:46:41'>internet forums there are some very</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:46:45'>compact and solid groups of people who</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:46:50'>all gather around specific issues there are groups formed on the internet of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:46:56'>people whose parents have Alzheimer's and they respond to one another in a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:01'>very intense way very narrow focused and that's a new form of tribalism in some</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:06'>way places like the well on the internet I think are places where tribes gather</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:10'>they're like watering holes okay one more simple answer I would think is that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:15'>tribalism was limited geographically in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:19'>the past and I think one simple thing is in the future tribes can extend through</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:24'>time and space more conveniently so the formation of tribes be less limited so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:28'>be probably less imagination societies</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:33'>in non tribal societies is that in tribal societies the point of view of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:38'>everyone is the point of view of the tribe that's the major difference Middle</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:43'>Ages was much more of a tribal society than we have now so I think the special</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:48'>interest groups may not be the same thing as tribes but I think that if you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:52'>go to South Central Los Angeles or certain areas in New York you will find</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:57'>modern tribalism as people try to find a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:01'>franchise in a world that they feel</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:05'>completely cut off from that's much more tribalism than just being interested in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:10'>the same topic could the panel comment</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:14'>on the French mini tale experience or would the panel comment on you have the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:20'>right to say no the mini mini tell many</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:24'>tell dangerous dangerous question nobody</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:28'>wants to comment okay I think there we go ask west comment</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:32'>it's Buddhist or something it is it is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:36'>it was a good first step onto something which is going to come very much larger</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:41'>and and much more much more useful as</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:46'>more media abroad in it is after all confined to a relatively simple</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:51'>alphanumeric format one one gets information in many media at the same</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:56'>time the system become far richer often</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:02'>first in one respect that it proves as</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:07'>my colleague on the Left said that sex sells and that most of the new</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:12'>technologies are driven by pureeing interest and we never like to talk about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:16'>that but v8 VHS is a standard in the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:21'>United States because pornographers use that rather than beta which is a better</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:26'>technology there are examples in every place you can imagine so minitel allowed</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:32'>people to reach out and touch each other in very naughty ways quite successfully</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:36'>thank you John</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:42'>okay what equipment and communication</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:47'>facilities will the household on average</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:51'>income unless in other words I guess</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:55'>well average income or less I guess it says have to participate that to have to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:59'>have to participate in the Information Age okay well it could be almost any I'm</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:50:04'>sorry Craig first well I think it's the wrong question let me comment in the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:50:09'>question and then what I hope would be the right question because the equipment is the least of it my home at the moment</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:50:15'>has so many computers there in my refrigerator and my air conditioner and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:50:19'>my toaster and my television and my automobile and so the equipment is the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:50:25'>least of it and will get cheaper and cheaper to me the the major expenses and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:50:29'>to be concerned about Lisa V lower income families is the information in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:50:34'>the services it's the royalties how much is it going to really cost to use a an</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:50:40'>extremely effective education program that someone may have invested in that's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:50:45'>going to be the big cost that limits whether everyone gets it or not this is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:50:52'>an important point and we talked about the role of government this is not being terribly important the if the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:50:57'>information access is going to be charged for if it's going to be very</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:03'>hard to use then the system may fail on a social basis but I see no reason why</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:09'>to use a New York example a homebound</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:13'>mother who was just sent her children</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:17'>off to school should be able to walk up to her television set which would cost</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:21'>no more than today's machine and be able to say is there any are there any</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:26'>cleaning or childcare jobs along the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:30'>number 25 bus starting at 10 o'clock today and be interviewed within five or</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:36'>ten minutes by a prospective employer with no more training than that and with</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:40'>no more per capita investment now that is the that is a question of entitlement</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:45'>in the United States we have Universal telephone service as a public policy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:50'>now that was this is a 1500 year old</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:54'>instrument to just go one more step that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:58'>access to that kind of information becomes a public policy government can</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:02'>do this at relatively modest cost sixty-year-old the point I was trying to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:07'>make earlier about newspaper delivery along the Kings Highway is exactly this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:12'>newspapers have a right there protected by copyright and they're protected by</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:18'>the First Amendment rights to some degree in the United States when you transfer that information to a telephone</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:23'>system it is a private road not a public highway and the the fact of the matter</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:29'>is that private roads can edit and filter for their own purposes the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:35'>information that runs along them the rights of the publisher and the rights of the reader are not exactly the same</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:40'>in the electronic Highway in the States today as they are on the on the roads</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:45'>I'm gonna ask two more okay do it quickly those we get two more</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:50'>quick one that I can't ask him to do oh I'm sorry right because in there there's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:55'>a major debate going on in the United States at the moment about what is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:59'>universal service for the next 50 years and it's fairly clear that it is not</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:04'>just telecommunications the point I was making I think is the same as yours in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:10'>focusing on the information the information services you were assuming that government would pay and provide</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:16'>some minimum the example you raised I'm not making that assumption</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:20'>it's really quite unclear governments everywhere are strapped for cash and the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:24'>public seems quite unwilling to pay the extra bill so the question is who will</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:29'>pay so that lower-income people can get the services not the telecommunications</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:33'>and that's an open question well but the government comes out because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:38'>using information to make the economically deprived portions of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:43'>society more economically productive is a win for the government that is not in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:48'>that cost that is much cheaper to provide information which allows this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:52'>woman to get a job during the day than to continue to pay welfare cost welfare</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:57'>in the United States is enormous and she's taking a small amount of money and using that a little more efficiently the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:54:02'>biggest employer of in New York City today is welfare inspectors as the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:54:06'>biggest single source of employment so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:54:10'>its influence an information job that could be replaced by a machine let me go</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:54:15'>back to an issue that in a sense Craig dismissed and that's in this question</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:54:19'>here will direct democracy as opposed to representative democracy be possible</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:54:24'>thanks to a new interactive information system actually I hope not</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:54:30'>because I I can just imagine through the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:54:34'>medium of television getting people all excited and somebody says let's go bomb</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:54:39'>X yes or no and everybody in the heat of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:54:44'>the moment votes yes and that is a mandate of the people I think that in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:54:50'>one of the things that one of the basis</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:54:54'>of democracy was cool thought rather than just hot-blooded oratory and the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:55:00'>cool thought was done through essays and longer deliberations and I think</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:55:05'>building in any in any system where you want to find out what the will of the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:55:10'>people is and try and make policy based on it it can't be a direct route it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:55:14'>should not be a direct route it should be one in which there's both hot</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:55:19'>thinking and cool thinking to come up with a policy in the end you know to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:55:24'>come up as a very very controversial issue in the next half it sounds like a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:55:29'>great idea for about it's going to be a second issue one quick last question what does</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:55:35'>the panel see is the future of reading books and newspapers well I think the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:55:43'>I think there are two answers to that I'll take the book one the the book has</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:55:52'>existed in lots of different forms in history I think the most important thing about the book is has been the distance</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:02'>between the way information is represented in a book and the world of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:07'>the census I think that's been extremely important in a lot of different areas</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:11'>and has fostered new kinds of thinking just in the last few hundred years that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:16'>have never existed on the earth before so I think that in any new medium that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:21'>we design we have to understand that that kind of thought which we could</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:26'>calls symbolic thought thought that is detached cool thought has to be provided</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:32'>for just as an example anybody who has a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:36'>computer today with a CRT on it probably notices that to read anything longer</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:41'>than our nose bumper sticker you print</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:45'>it out and the reason is that the CRT was designed to be looked at all the way</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:50'>across the room with a very narrow viewing angle when you look at it up</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:54'>close it causes your eyes to jump all over the periphery of the screen and it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:57:00'>causes discomfort and in about 10% of the people that actually calls causes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:57:04'>vertigo so the CRT is antagonistic to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:57:08'>text which it has been the major instrument of our civilization of the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:57:13'>last three or four hundred years so when we for instance when we put computers</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:57:17'>into schools willy-nilly and think that we're going to substitute for books by</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:57:23'>simply putting text on the screens we're in for a big shock because those screens</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:57:28'>are not even close to being as readable a flat screen like a liquid crystal</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:57:32'>display the new ones don't have that problem and I think that reading in the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:57:38'>sense of being making symbolic renderings of things that do not involve</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:57:43'>iconic images associated with them will</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:57:47'>carry on for a long time even as it gets translated to this new</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:57:52'>this new technology John how about answering newspapers newspaper and book</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:01'>publisher and of course as a very minor stockholder I hope that they continue to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:06'>be profitable and successful I think the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:10'>books will succeed and in the future as will newspapers it's just that the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:14'>proportion of people getting that information and from electronic means</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:18'>will continue to increase today newspapers are flourishing in some</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:23'>societies but if you see where the television channels increase and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:27'>newspaper readership usually declines and so most people today in America get</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:32'>their news from television not from newspapers although many people buy and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:37'>scan them I think that I like to drive</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:42'>old cars that's just a quaint thing and I would like to have books around</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:47'>because of that activity and the very product themselves are appealing to me</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:51'>as well as the information that's in them so books will always be around it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:55'>just that when you have 90 million people in the United States judged to be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:59'>unable to read the future looks pretty grim for the text and written word okay</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:59:05'>I think paper is an excellent flat panel display the cost is low the resolution</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:59:11'>is high the power consumption is zero and it will be around for a very long</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:59:16'>time the places where we will see some inroads is where you want</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:59:20'>personalization hence more at the news and then at the book end because it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:59:24'>still not economical to print a newspaper in quantities of one or a book</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:59:28'>in quantities of one you also see where you in nonfiction work where you have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:59:33'>directories where you need information and you need other kinds of access and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:59:37'>slices through it it's certainly going to be better to have it electronically</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:59:41'>than in print I want to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:59:45'>look at the clock resistor yes if we look at the progress in technology we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:59:50'>have gone from the four kilobyte memory</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:59:54'>4000 bit to four million bits without any further change in physical science</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:00'>we will go to four gigabits that is another factor of 1000 that is to say</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:05'>technology progress from the beginning of integrated circuits to now is halfway</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:09'>there in a geometric sense so I do not believe that the width of my successors</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:15'>will somehow be baffled by building a printer a cheap enough printer to give</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:21'>every person in the world a customized piece of paper the question is whether I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:26'>think Allen was the one that pointed out the question is whether the audience and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:31'>there will be an elite audience for it whether that audience will be large or vitiate 'add by the mindless programming</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:37'>that will grind other people that other</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:41'>people's intellect downward so there's a social danger that I can't really</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:45'>address as a technologist but for those who will want to read and I hope I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:49'>certainly hope my children will be among those that will be books I'm sure I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:53'>would like to thank the audience I would like to thank them for their questions</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:57'>and I want to thank a truly remarkable panel thank you very very much</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:01:02'>[Applause]</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:01:08'>yes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:01:15'>[Music]</subtitle>