Difference between revisions of "Alan Kay Keynote at NATF 2013 Part 2"

Latest revision as of 22:49, 6 December 2017

okay so here's another idea we love news

and we are very troubled by new I

can think about it

news is completely incremental to

what we already know it

deals entirely in categories that we already have

so news is oh there's

been a shooting over here a car crash over

here somebody did a good deed over here etc

etc so you can

get through a whole bunch of news items in 20 minutes or so

new has the problem that if it's really

new it's like those flies

or something that your

your dream and your

ghost haven't seen before so

it might be truly invisible might be right in front of you

but you might not even be able to see it

or you might convert it into something you've seen before and

miss what it was and so forth and news

is about campfires and new

is about learning

because we have to learn some of the things

we've learned genetically there's a lot known about what babies

know when they were born there's a bunch of things that

we learn very readily as we'll see in a second and

then there's some new stuff that's appeared in the

hundred years that is actually rather difficult to learn and

it was only discovered recently in

large part because it is not at all obvious to

our nervous system and those kind of things

were the things that caused schools to be invented

and

so I'm trying

to talk about new here but I can't this

is a campfire right this

is why Nicholas told a bunch of wonderful

stories because that is how you communicate in a

campfire and the problem

with campfires is we had them for two hundred thousand years

and didn't accomplish a goddamn thing is

when we got out of the campfires and started

trying to deal maybe getting

around what our senses are even trying to tell

us that we started making progress so I have to

talk about the new in terms of something

that always has to be manifested

in a news forum and

our built-in learning

is essentially

remembering we're actually not very good at

learning for a variety of reasons and

most of learning throughout most of human

history is rather like erosion

anybody have any erosion gullies in there

we don't have them that

much in California because in theory it never rains here

of course outside it's a heavy

dude today but

basically what happens is you don't know where

the rain is going it disturbs something

there's maybe a pebble that doesn't get

disturbed and something else does get disturb you get a little gully then

the cool thing about gullies is because

they have this slope once you

get the thing started it starts running a lot of water

into that random thing

and all of a sudden you get one of these guys this

is our memory system it's

basically always building on what's there it's very hard

for us to forget one of the things people

who do talks are told

by talk advisors is

the chances that they'll remember anything

you say are low but they'll absolutely

remember how you made them feel

because that is

what is actually going on here I'm just trying

to get past that a little bit

yeah so almost all learning and throughout

history and even a lot of it's still in the United

States and other countries to do is by rote

thinking that remembering some pattern

is good enough for 21st

century learning turns out that could not

be farther from the case

but we even test for it and

when we have we love explanations

the problem is we're not very critical of the explanations

so we get one of these guys I'm

really miss them out here in California

but the most popular idea

in history has been there's some guy up there

with superpowers throwing lightning bolts around

and would you like to be

that guy

and we just hate

it's things that are better explanations

if they don't have any punch

and sizzle to them and now

Maxwell's equations has beauty but

it doesn't have a plot it

doesn't have a hero except Maxwell and

he's not there and so we love

stories and we're quite

indifferent as a species to science it's

actually developed taste and

so vastly more people in the world

still believe in stories and this is the problem with

kids kids are incredibly curious as Nicholas

pointed out the problem is

is that we humans when we're curious

and we want an explanation for

something our brains are satisfied with a story

so every time we express

curiosity as a child unless we're that one child

in a thousand we will accept the

story and okay that's the that's the reason for

this and this is the reason for that and so forth this produces

adults that have the same thing and they tell their children stories

get nowhere

so we love religion and relief and

thinking is painful

another thing we are

social social means a lot

of things notice I'm using here

some alliteration here because

it's our brains are so bad that

alliterations actually are easier

to learn everybody

remember if the glove doesn't fit then you must acquit

how dumb was Johnny Cochran no

no I know I'm changing

the subject that's

an alliteration but

the reason he did that is because our

brains happen to think things that rhyme are more true and

Johnny Cochran is not a dumb guy

and he was dealing with jurors who weren't

sophisticated so

one of the exit interviews in that trial

was to a juror who was asked well what about the DNA evidence

and she said well that's just science

literally I saw that review my that

interview myself

so important

thing here is is there's a trade-off

between competition and cooperation and there's

a lot of cheating and

the study cheating has been studied very

very closely because it's the

most interesting thing why do we

do it even when it's against our better long-term

interests we cheat ourselves we cheat other

people in various ways just

something to think about and we're tribal

and the tribes radiate out

from us we're tribal

they say in the Middle East

me against my brother my brother and I against

family our family against the neighbors our

neighborhood against the city and

spheres going out

and it's very easy to convert

people who've never met each other before into

a tribe done

all the time touch football

something that everybody kind of knows how to

do put one group against another and amazing

things happen

so here's some esas here

social stories status and subterfuge

are characterized us

as a as a species and in fact anthropologists

have been studying this for about a hundred years

and here's a partial list

because they're about 300

these are traits

that when looking

at 3,000 different societies these

are traits that are never absent

okay this is why

they're called universals most

of these traits are

thought to be in born

these are things

that so we aren't born with a particular

language but we're born with the

propensity to pick up the local language

why do they think that's special

well we're not born with

propensity to learn how to read and write

so

they've never found a society that didn't have a language but

societies they looked at didn't have a writing system

in spite of the fact that a writing system

is really the simplest distance if

you think of it in one sphere from

I'm it's just writing down the very things

that you're saying what

could be a simpler idea than that but in fact it's not occurred

to most human societies on the planet it's

actually an invention and a relatively recent one

and it takes a

while to learn a lot of these so it takes years

before you're allowed for instance

to take communion in the Catholic Church in

spite of the fact that we're made for religion

so it's interesting to

look at all of these things

that characterize human beings and

you female

mitochondrial DNA says

we've been on the

planet for about under ninety three thousand

years and hunting and gathering

has been a

mode that has lasted that entire time and

agriculture came in as an invention

most likely by women one

of the most important inventions of all time about

11,000 years ago so

there's a lot of the same and then

a major invention that started transforming

things this is on a scale

of 1 pixel every 200 years

okay it's hard these long

time I hate showing log scale

things because most people cannot interpret

the powers of 10 change its

right so it's nice to

say pixels 200 years that's

sort of within our range well

let's take something like saving

for the future which is certainly

part of any kind of sustainable theory in fact

it's one

of the big deals in agriculture

don't eat

your seed corn and yet

interesting enough in the United States the

on the average we

are eating our seed corn

we are actually removing the

margins that we need in order to change our

mind or to deal with unexpected events so

that is a really interesting thing and it really

from the time that they've been looking at this the first

time it actually went negative

was just a few years ago

so this is I think quite significant

and the reason I'm putting it up here

is to ask you to think about what is the psychological shift

that could have happened that

would cause people to actually go back

and do what is essentially a hunting and gathering mode what

kind of assumption because I'm getting honey hunters

and gatherers don't

worry about that

because what happens when they

out gather and out hunt the place they are

they just move on because if you're

only a tribe of a couple of 100 and there's less

a few hundred thousand of you on the entire planet no

problem you just keep on moving there's

just nothing in our genetic makeup

that makes us want

so

once the anthropologists looked at universals they

got very interested in well what are some of the things

that we can find in different

societies that are not in all societies that are actually important

so the first one of course is writing

some societies have formed

all societies do something with arithmetic but

only a few have done something with

deductive mathematics science

is only a few hundred years old most

societies you die in

the same society you were born into

some societies have the idea of new in progress

but what's built into us is coping

we are great copers this by the way

this is one of the reasons why computing is in such difficulties

today how many people here are programmers

okay here's

my experience when I started 50 years ago actually on

one of the machines downstairs they

got it working again too that's pretty funny

the 1401 but basically

it was somebody else's machine somebody else's programming

language somebody else's problem somebody else's

theory of how to write the program and

it was in order to

survive in that environment you had to deal with an

enormous amount of stuff a lot of it was crap even

then 50 years ago nothing like the pile of

crap today that you have to deal with but if you're

not basically a koper

you're not going to stay a programmer for long you're

going to go into something to go into management push

other people around

so thought

has changed from remembering

to

actually understanding things one

of the toughest inventions that we know of

in the human panoply is equal

rights it's one of the hardest to learn we're

struggling with it still and

so on

so learning curves on these guys

and they're all so principled they

are not generally picked up on the job there

are things that actually require quite

a bit of prep and they're

more or less at odds with the general

human way of learning by doing

traditional societies don't have schools because

the kids watch what the adults are doing they

hunt squirrels the adults are hunting

antelope and so it's just a continuity

what you do as a child is where as Maria Montessori pointed

out that well that doesn't obtained

at all in the

20 20th century because a young girl

dressed in a nurse's uniform playing

with a stethoscope is only imitating

of what an adult does but not the content in fact

most adult activities in the 21st century are

actually formal

rather than content 'full as they are in

traditional societies so that is a pretty

important big deal so

go

back to the timeline here

so writing is about 5,500 years ago

we thought printing

press 500 science

US Constitution I put it up there not

as a governance thing but as one of the first times

human beings in history that we know

of actually thought in systems terms that

is actually a design

of an operating system for a machine

full of millions of somewhat uncooperative and

noisy parts namely us and so

it's a very interesting to read about how they thought about what

it was that they're trying to do because they were trying to put in error

correction mechanisms into this thing that they wanted

to be as freewheeling as possible that was one of the

newest ideas in human history germ

theory of disease modern medicine if you look

at these in terms of modern human lifetimes

of about 80 years can see that

printing press is only seven modern human lifetimes

ago

and our world is not like the world

the Middle Ages that the printing press was born

into our world started happening in the 17th

century so it's really only

a few hundred years old as far as what we

take for granted here

and not everybody takes it for granted because

most of the world doesn't actually have that

as a framework for thinking about what normal

could be I'm not saying ours is better i'm just

saying what happened in

Europe a few hundred years ago was

cataclysmically different from standard

human development

so sustainability Carl

Sagan oh boy do we miss him

we treat

his planet as though we had someplace to go after agreement well yeah

what the way hunters and gatherers deal with anything

they do have some place to go after

they ruin it the natural tendency

of humans to strip-mine Einstein

had a good one we can't solve our problems with the same level

thinking that created them that's scary if you aren't scared

by that one you you're missing something and

tony hoare a great

computer scientist who's in the Hall

of fellows outside the door here

he pointed out debugging is harder than programming

so don't use your maximum cleverness when programming this

is one of them this is one of the biggest bugs

in computing is people unleash

every ounce of cleverness they have on making

the buggy thing and they they they

have the perspective to deal with all of the interactions that

their cleverness wasn't so this is so

these two I think are quite complementary don't

you they actually fit together very

very nicely two different ways of showing

it this is a maximal human thinking bug

here so here this is what we are here

we are basically cave people with briefcases

we

like to think we're something better but

in fact this is what we're what we're dealing

with and the big problem

is that briefcase can hold nuclear weapons

the old days it only held

rocks and

we still get

the same old pachinko machine up there

and so this is a scaling problem

we weren't that dangerous even

when we wanted to be a hundred thousand years ago

because we just didn't yeah

we could whack somebody with a stick and but

you could actually rush somebody who's

gone nuts and whacking people with a stick

somebody's got an assault weapon or a nuclear weapon

you can own Russia

so this puts a qualitative

disaster on every horizon you

combine the two you get a yikes and

there's some really great cartoons here I'll read the captions

for you the one at the top is mr. Oompa

has simply worked here for ages

so I'm hoping now your minds are

thinking about whom business that is a lot

like hunting and gathering isn't it it's

not at all like the United States Constitution which

is all about cooperating it's actually all

about competition is all about wiping things

out it's

about short-term goals rather than long-term planning

but one on the bottom is even

better the guys saying AHA for

precisely how long were you a hunter and gather it

I'm

trying to make this entertaining but I'm hoping

you seeing that this is dead serious stuff

and so Carl

again he says we live in a society exquisitely dependent

on science and technology in which

knows anything about science and technology

and so

here's some RS words

and in spite of the fact that we

do a little science as far as the general population is

concerned on the entire planet including the u.s. we

really haven't gotten science into normal thinking

we haven't gotten scaling into normal thinking we haven't

gotten systems into normal thinking and we haven't gotten sustainability

and normal thinking these things are not actually

on anybody's top 10 list or

top 100 list most

people have not built up the background

for even thinking about these things and so

another way of looking at this is here

are four exquisite

systems that are all part

of one system that we actually deal with so

we have basically the system of the natural world

science we have behind the figure

there we have a crowd our

culture social systems this

is a picture of self portrait of the internet

representing technology all the technology

the logical systems we're doing and then we

have hundreds of systems that make us ourselves

up we are a system of systems

all of these systems are nonlinear

all of them are actually interacting with each other and

so if we don't actually get some systems consciousness

we aren't going to be able to

talk about sustainability is why I haven't said anything about technological

solutions to sustainability because

for

most people technology is a

perverse form of inverse vandalism

any but everybody

what i mean by in what does van vandalism is destroying

something because you can saying

i'm here to inverse vandalism is what

we engineers do we make things

because we can just because we can

this museum i went

through the exhibit hadn't been back

here for a while and i was struck by how

much crap there was

it's actually very confusing because it

is actually like a flea market where

there are a hundred thousand different items each one of which

one or two people thought

important that they went to the probably difficulty of actually

manufacturing these and yet

most of them are just complete crap

because I ideas are cheap

good ideas are hard the

regular ideas are a dime a dozen most of

them are mediocre down to bed and so

in order

things including what's wrong with our technology

we

can't we have to heat Einstein and tony hoare

is anybody here see the movie spy

game one of my favorites

and there's a line in here went

Robert Redford access his secretary

she's wondering why is he doing this now and he said when

did Noah build the ark before the flood Gladys before

the flood and so if you think about

what that means well our biggest problem

sustainability and all of these things is

we can't imagine nearly as well as we

can experience that

makes sense to

f the most amazing things and I've documented this and

I'm not going to burden you with them but it's

collected cases of

people who have

like dived into

a raging flood river to save a child

they've never seen before

some of these people were

asked whether they had

supported building higher

dams most of them hadn't

so one of the most interesting

things about it is how heroic we can be and on

each other's behalf when there's a disaster but

how blank we are when it comes to thinking

about the disaster that hasn't happened yet this

is why this new kind of imagination

is needed

another way looking at is because

we're talking everybody loves change how

many people here work for a business

o over I don't know 45 years or so

I've done most of my research at businesses and

every six

months or so there are meetings about

hey we have to re-engineer the system they there's

some phrase about and

everybody's enthusiastic about it because yes of course

we do you know we're fucking up all over the place of

course we have to fix it the school American

school system desperately needs to be fixed

no kidding so everybody

loves it except

he change part oh

no

so we can deal with something intellectually just

we can talk about sustainability but when it comes to actually

do it these other parts of the pachinko machine

kick in because almost all

changes are impugning our own reality

this is why especially religious

wars are so terrible because

once you've identified with a religion you

can't have a real discussion about it with somebody else

because at some point either you or they

are actually attacking your own identity

because you've tied us so closely to

this so this is why things rarely happen

it's sort of the low-pass filter

that takes every idea down to a dial tone

and we wind up coping

and way we cope is by

making things quote-unquote better

so here's a we

can put anything over here I've got 75

years there put anything could be learning

could be change anything anything

we need to get better at

and here's what we do in America we make this

graph every time that guy goes up

there's an article in the paper and people cheer

and every time it goes down there's an article

in the paper and people moan let's

say it's reading these are reading scores

that look familiar is it may be there

too going up reading is probably trending

yeah turns out it's completely irrelevant

because if you don't read that well you

aren't reading and the real

problem in America is almost no children are fluent in reading

enough to read for purpose

this whole system has been

game down to the point where these

things are deemed to be significant

where we're produced the nation that cannot do

anymore and the

conflict is usually between

this idea of better

well at least we're improving

least we're getting better then

there the other con the other extreme is but it's

not perfect never been

in a meeting between the betters and the perfect just

drives you crazy because they're both

completely wrong the

better guys are dealing in the news range they're

never going to get there if something new is needed the

guys are dealing in a place where the probability of getting

it at that level is zero

they're just too idealistic and

so what's what you need is a

sense of this above

threshold region which starts

the category called what is actually needed they

don't care whether it's better and we aren't going to get perfect

so we have to aim for what is needed

and

so this is what we did at Xerox

PARC so Nicholas gave you a little history

I'm not going to do that but

basically Xerox PARC hit the ball out of

the park maybe

15 times in a period of about five years

so included not just the

alto that the GUI object-oriented

programming the ethernet the whole laser

printer a whole bunch of other things each one of these things

were trillion dollar industries and the net

return from Xerox PARC today has been around

31 or 32 trillion dollars that

was done over a period of about five years by about two

dozen of us and if we

of those things it would have been actually we had luck

we were very lucky in

our manager you let us do what needed

to be done but when

you do it 15 times there's some process involved

there and part of the process is you have to

pick that little sweet spot there we actually

call it the McCready speed sweet spot McCready

is the guy who did man-powered flight so he is

one of the most amazing problem finders

and problem solvers to the point that he was in

the 20th century the

mechanical engineers of the world awarded him the

honor of being considered

to be the mechanical engineer of the 20th century

if you think about what things were

done in mechanical engineering of the 20th century this is an

almost unimaginable honor but this

guy deserved it and we

got a lot out of here's a great guy to to

talk to and work with and the

neat thing is once you hit that little

sweet spot you actually widen

up this area because you've learned something that

is like the things that you need to do and in

that range is usually where almost all of

good stuff is going to happen you're still not going to get up to perfection

but it doesn't matter because now you've got this incredibly

new fertile area and

a new way of dealing with this with this area

okay last slide

so it's not that adults are hopeless

by incredible

effort for

most of us we can learn a language starting at

age 40 we can

learn to play classical music starting at age 40

most of us don't have the

time I learned from silent in the classical

pipe organ starting at age 40 I had been a musician

before on other instruments

and I had one of those 40's crises

and I just

hated myself for not following this

felt need for

learning to play this music I love myself and

so finally when I was 40 my thought

well in five years i'm going to be 45 and i can either be an

organist or not and so I just grounded

out got up two and a half

hours earlier every day for

six years and

started getting to

be able to play these big pieces in a nice nice

way so it can be done but

it's really unreasonable for instance

to ask most teachers to learn

something in the midst of the incredible busy

same with parents parents are already busy so

I believe that the sweet spot for the

problems we've been talking about is not just education but

it's actually taking early childhood

education seriously because this is where you

can introduce new epistemological frameworks that are

not like the ones that we're born with you

can't get rid of the ones that we're born with like you don't want to get rid of stories

those are neat but you have to help the kids take

on a framework for thinking about things that's not story

like that has the character of scientific

explanations and so forth and so I'll

just leave you with that thought that the if we've

discovered the enemy and he is us from

Pogo then we also discovered

the solution and that's teaching

children in a much different way than we do now

very much should

I go over no you're perfect on time you had 32

seconds left Oh Sarek and that's time for one question

okay how about a good one

or comment if

you're in Italy you never get a question you always get whatever

they're feeling about that day

so if ya if our mush

is not good enough we built the web and we can collaborate

but collaboration doesn't work so how

do we think together and make it so well yeah

so the web to be so

there's some history and if you go down stairs you'll

there's a guy by the name of Douglas Engelbart you may

have heard of he's mostly famous for inventing the mouse which is

the least of his contributions but

his 1962 proposal

to ARPA who was his funder

was a basically

said most of the

important things in the world are done by adults cooperating

together and if computers are good for anything

they should be able to help coordinate

large-scale things in

the in the human in human good and so

the big problem with the web is its what

some of us old-timers call reinventing

the flat tire and if

you want to see that you can just look at the hour

and a half demo that angle Bart did in 1968

in San Francisco showing

his system working back then

and for that for us that was the embodiment of

one important part of personal

computing and you'll see things in there that are not

even done on the web today so

it's not a question that the that this is a

quaint old thing from the past and

the mistake that

Darwinian processes optimize they don't

Darwinian processings find fits to

the environment that they're in and

the fifth to the environment is a fit to a pop culture

which basically developed the web the

internet on the other hand is one of the greatest pieces of technology

ever design it was designed by experts and

there

could not be a larger contrast between the internet and this

web system that runs on top

of it so

so the question of

cooperation is

when once once you have trouble with a word

it's always good to ditch it right

so so real question is

not about can we cooperate when we're inclined

to do so but is there any way on the

internet to build up trust because

trust is the actual basis of

cooperation it's the basis

of so when I put groups together

going to i have my current group is spread out all

over the world but we

spend a lot of time together early on in

order to use all the different

kinds of communication including things that are quasi

face-to-face like skype

but even if you have a high res

cisco system you don't get

eye contact so as well so

way is that negroponte action is one of the one of the pioneers

of this so he did a big program that actually

got a golden police award from

Proxmire but it was a great program which is called

transmission of presence so the question

was what do you have to do to

be able to talk about this

talk about this argue about this argue about this would argue

about this but can you have a marital

argument over this technology

and get to the place where at

some point the key to the thing is whether they

feel you're sincere just from

the presents part of it and hardly

anybody has done this so this is an example what I think the

modern era to me is working on easy

problems and mostly doing inverse vandalism so

if you think of the real problems it really does have

to do with not just communicating about things we're

already more or less an agreement that's news but communicating

and collaborating about things where we have to establish

common ground hardly anything has been

done and so once again

you know looking into the anthropology books is the Axelrod book

about the evolution of collaboration which

is a very important one there's a recent

one by graber that is a fantastic i

fantastic graber he's written a number of books but

when I'm thinking of is called 5,000 years

of debt because the idea

of debt goes back as far as we've

been able to track any kind of society and

if you think about it that is one of the greatest ideas of all

time if you don't game it right

because debt allows you to

borrow from the future in a sensible way and

to make various kinds of contracts about

larger plans and you could ever do when

you're trying to do the balance sheets

every day and so the real question is

how can you take this incredible slightly invention of money

it's one of the great inventions of all time if you

don't game it because it's actually part of the meta system

gaming meta systems gets people in trouble so

the gray book if

you're interested GRA EV er is an american

anthropologist really

a very thoughtful book there's conman's

book some of you might have seen called

fast thinking and slow thinking Kahneman

by the way was the guy who first used

measure measurements of pupil dilation to

indicate in interest and I would have thought that

have been mentioned this morning because that's one of the things you'd

gauge is suppose you're trying to do online learning

we want not just eye

tracking but you need to be able to pick up psychological

signals that indicate with the student

is interested still and

maybe change things if the student you can sense the student

he kinds of things as a teacher would do face

reading a student so one

ways of looking at it this is great because hardly

anything has been done in the last 30 years except

exploiting Moore's law most of the ideas

we have today are roughly the ones that the 80 started

with like we're using the same user interface

we did it Park we're using the same blah blah blah

blah blah right using the ethernet the internet

all of those things so very little of of

import has happened there but it's been spread widely because

the costs and the

reliabilities have changed so drastically

so I think we're

place where it's time to go back to some of these fundamental

issues in large

part because of that nuclear weapon in in the

Cape guys briefcase thank

you thanks Alan

Difference between revisions of "Alan Kay Keynote at NATF 2013 Part 2"

Latest revision as of 22:49, 6 December 2017

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+<subtitle id="0:0:7">okay so here's another idea we love news</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:10">  and we are very troubled by new I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:13"> can  think about it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:16"> news is completely  incremental to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:19"> what we already know it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:22">deals entirely in categories that we  already have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:25"> so news is oh there's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:28"> been  a shooting over here a car crash over</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:31">  here somebody did a good deed over here  etc</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:34"> etc so you can</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:37"> get through a whole  bunch of news items in 20 minutes or so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:40">  new has the problem that if it's really</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:43">  new it's like those flies</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:46"> or something  that your</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:49"> your dream and your</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:52"> ghost  haven't seen before so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:55"> it might be truly  invisible might be right in front of you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:58">  but you might not even be able to see it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:1">or you might convert it into something  you've seen before and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:4"> miss what it was  and so forth and news</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:7"> is about campfires  and new</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:10"> is about learning</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:16">because we have to learn some of the  things</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:19"> we've learned genetically there's  a lot known about what babies</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:22"> know when  they were born there's a bunch of things  that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:25"> we learn very readily as we'll see  in a second and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:28"> then there's some new  stuff that's appeared in the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:31">hundred years that is actually rather  difficult to learn and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:34"> it was only  discovered recently in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:37"> large part  because it is not at all obvious to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:40"> our  nervous system and those kind of things</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:43">  were the things that caused schools to  be invented</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:46"> and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:49"> so I'm trying</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:52"> to talk  about new here but I can't this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:55"> is a  campfire right this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:58"> is why Nicholas told  a bunch of wonderful</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:1"> stories because  that is how you communicate in a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:4">  campfire and the problem</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:7"> with campfires  is we had them for two hundred thousand  years</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:10"> and didn't accomplish a goddamn  thing is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:13"> when we got out of the  campfires and started</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:16"> trying to deal  maybe getting</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:19"> around what our senses are  even trying to tell</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:22"> us that we started  making progress so I have to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:25"> talk about  the new in terms of something</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:28"> that  always has to be manifested</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:31"> in a news  forum and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:34"> our built-in learning</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:37"> is  essentially</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:40"> remembering we're actually  not very good at</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:43"> learning for a variety  of reasons and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:46"> most of learning  throughout most of human</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:49"> history is  rather like erosion</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:52"> anybody have any  erosion gullies in there</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:55"> we don't have  them that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:58"> much in California because in  theory it never rains here</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:1"> of course  outside it's a heavy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:4"> dude today  but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:7"> basically what happens is you don't  know where</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:10"> the rain is going it disturbs  something</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:13"> there's maybe a pebble that  doesn't get</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:16"> disturbed and something else  does get disturb you get a little gully  then</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:19"> the cool thing about gullies is  because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:22"> they have this slope once you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:25">get the thing started it starts running  a lot of water</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:28"> into that random thing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:31">and all of a sudden you get one of these  guys this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:34"> is our memory system it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:37">basically always building on what's  there it's very hard</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:40"> for us to forget  one of the things people</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:43"> who do talks  are told</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:46"> by talk advisors is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:49"> the chances  that they'll remember anything</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:52"> you say  are low but they'll absolutely</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:55"> remember  how you made them feel</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:58">because that is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:1"> what is actually going  on here I'm just trying</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:4"> to get past that  a little bit</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:7"> yeah so almost all learning  and throughout</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:10"> history and even a lot of  it's still in the United</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:13"> States and  other countries to do is by rote</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:16">  thinking that remembering some pattern</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:19">  is good enough for 21st</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:22"> century learning  turns out that could not</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:25"> be farther from  the case</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:28"> but we even test for it and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:31">  when we have we love explanations</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:34"> the  problem is we're not very critical of  the explanations</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:37"> so we get one of these  guys I'm</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:40"> really miss them out here in  California</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:43"> but the most popular idea</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:46"> in  history has been there's some guy up  there</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:49"> with superpowers throwing  lightning bolts around</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:52"> and would you  like to be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:55"> that guy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:58"> and we just hate</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:1">  it's things that are better explanations</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:4">  if they don't have any punch</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:7"> and sizzle  to them and now</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:10"> Maxwell's equations has  beauty but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:13"> it doesn't have a plot it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:16">  doesn't have a hero except Maxwell and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:19">  he's not there and so we love</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:22"> stories  and we're quite</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:25"> indifferent as a species  to science it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:28"> actually developed taste  and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:31"> so vastly more people in the world</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:34">  still believe in stories and this is the  problem with</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:37"> kids kids are incredibly  curious as Nicholas</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:40"> pointed out the  problem is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:43"> is that we humans when we're  curious</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:46"> and we want an explanation for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:49">something our brains are satisfied with  a story</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:52"> so every time we express</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:55">curiosity as a child unless we're that  one child</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:58"> in a thousand we will accept  the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:1"> story and okay that's the that's the  reason for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:4"> this and this is the reason  for that and so forth this produces</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:7">adults that have the same thing and they  tell their children stories</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:10">  get nowhere</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:13"> so we love religion and  relief and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:16"> thinking is painful</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:19"> another  thing we are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:22"> social social means a lot</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:25">  of things notice I'm using here</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:28"> some  alliteration here because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:31"> it's our  brains are so bad that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:34"> alliterations  actually are easier</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:37"> to learn everybody</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:40">remember if the glove doesn't fit then  you must acquit</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:46">how dumb was Johnny Cochran no</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:49"> no I know  I'm changing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:52"> the subject that's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:55"> an  alliteration but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:58"> the reason he did that  is because our</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:1"> brains happen to think  things that rhyme are more true and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:4">  Johnny Cochran is not a dumb guy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:7"> and he  was dealing with jurors who weren't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:10">  sophisticated so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:13"> one of the exit  interviews in that trial</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:16"> was to a juror  who was asked well what about the DNA  evidence</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:19"> and she said well that's just  science</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:22"> literally I saw that review my  that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:25"> interview myself</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:28"> so important</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:31"> thing  here is is there's a trade-off</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:34"> between  competition and cooperation and there's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:37">  a lot of cheating and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:40"> the study cheating  has been studied very</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:43"> very closely  because it's the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:46"> most interesting thing  why do we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:49"> do it even when it's against  our better long-term</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:52"> interests we cheat  ourselves we cheat other</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:55"> people in  various ways just</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:58"> something to think  about and we're tribal</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:1"> and the tribes  radiate out</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:4"> from us we're tribal</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:7"> they  say in the Middle East</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:10"> me against my  brother my brother and I against</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:13">family our family against the neighbors  our</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:16"> neighborhood against the city and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:19">  spheres going out</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:22"> and it's very easy to  convert</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:25"> people who've never met each  other before into</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:28"> a tribe done</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:31"> all the  time touch football</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:34"> something that  everybody kind of knows how to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:37"> do put  one group against another and amazing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:40">  things happen</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:43">so here's some esas here</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:46"> social stories  status and subterfuge</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:49"> are characterized  us</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:52"> as a as a species and in fact  anthropologists</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:55"> have been studying this  for about a hundred years</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:58"> and here's a  partial list</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:1"> because they're about 300</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:4">  these are traits</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:7"> that when looking</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:10"> at  3,000 different societies these</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:13"> are  traits that are never absent</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:16"> okay this  is why</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:19"> they're called universals most</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:22"> of  these traits are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:25"> thought to be in born</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:28">  these are things</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:31"> that so we aren't born  with a particular</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:34"> language but we're  born with the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:37"> propensity to pick up the  local language</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:40"> why do they think that's  special</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:43"> well we're not born with</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:46">propensity to learn how to read and  write</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:49">so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:52"> they've never found a society that  didn't have a language but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:55">societies they looked at didn't have a  writing system</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:58"> in spite of the fact that  a writing system</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:1"> is really the simplest  distance if</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:4"> you think of it in one  sphere from</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:7"> I'm it's just writing down  the very things</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:10"> that you're saying what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:13">could be a simpler idea than that but in  fact it's not occurred</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:16"> to most human  societies on the planet it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:19"> actually an  invention and a relatively recent one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:22">  and it takes a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:25"> while to learn a lot of  these so it takes years</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:28"> before you're  allowed for instance</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:31"> to take communion  in the Catholic Church in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:34"> spite of the  fact that we're made for religion</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:37"> so  it's interesting to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:40"> look at all of these  things</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:43"> that characterize human beings  and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:46"> you female</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:49"> mitochondrial DNA says</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:52">  we've been on the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:55"> planet for about under  ninety three thousand</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:58"> years and hunting  and gathering</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:1"> has been a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:4"> mode that has  lasted that entire time and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:7"></subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:10"> agriculture  came in as an invention</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:13"> most likely by  women one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:16"> of the most important  inventions of all time about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:19"> 11,000  years ago so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:22"> there's a lot of the same  and then</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:25"> a major invention that started  transforming</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:28"> things this is on a scale</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:31">  of 1 pixel every 200 years</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:34">  okay it's hard these long</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:37"> time I hate  showing log scale</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:40"> things because most  people cannot interpret</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:43"> the powers of 10  change its</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:46"> right so it's nice to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:49"> say  pixels 200 years that's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:52"> sort of within  our range well</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:55"> let's take something like  saving</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:58"> for the future which is certainly</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:1">part of any kind of sustainable theory  in fact</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:4"> it's one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:7"> of the big deals in  agriculture</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:10"> don't eat</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:13"> your seed corn and  yet</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:16"> interesting enough in the United  States the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:19"> on the average we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:22"> are eating  our seed corn</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:25"> we are actually removing  the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:28"> margins that we need in order to  change our</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:31"> mind or to deal with  unexpected events so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:34"> that is a really  interesting thing and it really</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:37"> from the  time that they've been looking at this  the first</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:40"> time it actually went negative</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:43">  was just a few years ago</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:46"> so this is I  think quite significant</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:49"> and the reason  I'm putting it up here</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:52"> is to ask you to  think about what is the psychological  shift</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:55"> that could have happened that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:58">  would cause people to actually go back</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:1">and do what is essentially a hunting and  gathering mode what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:4"> kind of assumption  because I'm getting honey hunters</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:7"> and  gatherers don't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:10"> worry about that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:13"> because  what happens when they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:16"> out gather and  out hunt the place they are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:19"> they just  move on because if you're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:22"> only a tribe  of a couple of 100 and there's less</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:25">a few hundred thousand of you on the  entire planet no</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:28"> problem you just keep  on moving there's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:31"> just nothing in our  genetic makeup</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:34">that makes us want</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:40">so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:43"> once the anthropologists looked at  universals they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:46"> got very interested in  well what are some of the things</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:49"> that we  can find in different</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:52"> societies that are  not in all societies that are actually  important</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:55"> so the first one of course is  writing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:58"></subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:1"> some societies have formed</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:4"> all  societies do something with arithmetic  but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:7"> only a few have done something with</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:10">  deductive mathematics science</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:13"> is only a  few hundred years old most</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:16"> societies you  die in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:19"> the same society you were born  into</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:22"> some societies have the idea of new  in progress</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:25"> but what's built into us is  coping</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:28"> we are great copers this by the  way</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:31"> this is one of the reasons why  computing is in such difficulties</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:34"> today  how many people here are programmers</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:37">  okay here's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:40"> my experience when I started  50 years ago actually on</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:43"> one of the  machines downstairs they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:46"> got it working  again too that's pretty funny</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:49"> the 1401  but basically</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:52"> it was somebody else's  machine somebody else's programming</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:55">language somebody else's problem  somebody else's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:58"> theory of how to write  the program and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:1"> it was in order to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:4">  survive in that environment you had to  deal with an</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:7"> enormous amount of stuff a  lot of it was crap even</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:10"> then 50 years  ago nothing like the pile of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:13"> crap today  that you have to deal with but if you're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:16">  not basically a koper</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:19"> you're not going  to stay a programmer for long you're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:22">going to go into something to go into  management push</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:25"> other people around</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:28">  so thought</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:31"> has changed from remembering</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:34">  to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:37"> actually understanding things one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:40"> of  the toughest inventions that we know of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:43">  in the human panoply is equal</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:46"> rights  it's one of the hardest to learn we're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:49">  struggling with it still and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:52"> so on</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:55"> so  learning curves on these guys</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:1">and they're all so principled they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:4"> are  not generally picked up on the job there</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:7">  are things that actually require quite</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:10"> a  bit of prep and they're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:13"> more or less at  odds with the general</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:16"> human way of  learning by doing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:19"> traditional societies  don't have schools because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:22"> the kids  watch what the adults are doing they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:25">  hunt squirrels the adults are hunting</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:28">  antelope and so it's just a continuity</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:31">  what you do as a child is where as Maria  Montessori pointed</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:34"> out that well that  doesn't obtained</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:37"> at all in the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:40"> 20 20th  century because a young girl</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:43"></subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:46"> dressed in  a nurse's uniform playing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:49"> with a  stethoscope is only imitating</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:52">of what an adult does but not the  content in fact</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:55"> most adult activities in  the 21st century are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:58"> actually formal</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:1">  rather than content 'full as they are in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:4">  traditional societies so that is a  pretty</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:7"> important big deal so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:10"> go</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:13"> back to  the timeline here</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:16"> so writing is about  5,500 years ago</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:19"> we thought printing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:22">  press 500 science</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:25"> US Constitution I put  it up there not</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:28"> as a governance thing  but as one of the first times</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:31"> human  beings in history that we know</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:34"> of  actually thought in systems terms that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:37">  is actually a design</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:40"> of an operating  system for a machine</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:43"> full of millions of  somewhat uncooperative and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:46"> noisy parts  namely us and so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:49"> it's a very interesting  to read about how they thought about  what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:52"> it was that they're trying to do  because they were trying to put in error</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:55">  correction mechanisms into this thing  that they wanted</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:58"> to be as freewheeling  as possible that was one of the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:1"> newest  ideas in human history germ</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:4"> theory of  disease modern medicine if you look</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:7"> at  these in terms of modern human lifetimes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:10">  of about 80 years can see that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:13">printing press is only  seven modern human lifetimes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:16"> ago</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:19"> and our  world is not like the world</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:22"> the Middle  Ages that the printing press was born</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:25">  into our world started happening in the  17th</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:28"> century so it's really only</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:31"> a few  hundred years old as far as what we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:34"> take  for granted here</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:37"> and not everybody takes  it for granted because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:40"> most of the world  doesn't actually have that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:43"> as a  framework for thinking about what normal</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:46">  could be I'm not saying ours is better  i'm just</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:49"> saying what happened in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:52"> Europe  a few hundred years ago was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:55">  cataclysmically different from standard</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:58">  human development</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:1"> so sustainability Carl</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:4">  Sagan oh boy do we miss him</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:7"> we treat</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:10">his planet as though we had someplace  to go after agreement well yeah</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:13">what the way hunters and gatherers deal  with anything</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:16"> they do have some place to  go after</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:19"> they ruin it the natural  tendency</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:22"> of humans to strip-mine  Einstein</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:25"> had a good one we can't solve  our problems with the same level</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:28">thinking that created them that's scary  if you aren't scared</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:31"> by that one you  you're missing something and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:34"> tony hoare  a great</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:37"> computer scientist who's in the  Hall</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:40"> of fellows outside the door here</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:43"> he  pointed out debugging is harder than  programming</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:46"> so don't use your maximum  cleverness when programming this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:49"> is one  of them this is one of the biggest bugs</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:52">  in computing is people unleash</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:55"> every  ounce of cleverness they have on making</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:58">  the buggy thing and they they they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:1">have the perspective to deal with all of  the interactions that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:4"> their cleverness  wasn't so this is so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:7"> these two I think  are quite complementary don't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:10"> you they  actually fit together very</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:13"> very nicely  two different ways of showing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:16"> it this is  a maximal human thinking bug</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:19"> here so  here this is what we are here</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:22"> we are  basically cave people with briefcases</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:28">we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:31"> like to think we're something better  but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:34"> in fact this is what we're what  we're dealing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:37"> with and the big problem</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:40">is that briefcase can hold nuclear  weapons</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:43"> the old days it only held</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:46"> rocks  and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:49"> we still get</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:52"> the same old pachinko  machine up there</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:55"> and so this is a  scaling problem</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:58"> we weren't that  dangerous even</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:1"> when we wanted to be a  hundred thousand years ago</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:4"> because we  just didn't yeah</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:7"> we could whack somebody  with a stick and but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:10"> you could actually  rush somebody who's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:13"> gone nuts and  whacking people with a stick</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:16">somebody's got an assault weapon or a  nuclear weapon</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:19"> you can own Russia</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:22"> so  this puts a qualitative</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:25"> disaster on  every horizon you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:28"> combine the two you  get a yikes and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:31"> there's some really  great cartoons here I'll read the  captions</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:34"> for you the one at the top is  mr. Oompa</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:37"> has simply worked here for  ages</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:40"> so I'm hoping now your minds are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:43">  thinking about whom business that is a  lot</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:46"> like hunting and gathering isn't it  it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:49"> not at all like the United States  Constitution which</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:52"> is all about  cooperating it's actually all</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:55"> about  competition is all about wiping things</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:58">  out it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:1"> about short-term goals rather  than long-term planning</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:4"> but one on the  bottom is even</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:7"> better the guys saying  AHA for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:10"> precisely how long were you a  hunter and gather it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:16">I'm</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:19"> trying to make this entertaining but  I'm hoping</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:22"> you seeing that this is dead  serious stuff</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:28">and so Carl</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:31"> again he says we live in a  society exquisitely dependent</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:34"> on science  and technology in which</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:37">knows anything about science and  technology</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:43">and so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:46"> here's some RS words</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:49"> and in spite  of the fact that we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:52"> do a little science  as far as the general population is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:55">concerned on the entire planet including  the u.s. we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:58"> really haven't gotten  science into normal thinking</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:1"> we haven't  gotten scaling into normal thinking we  haven't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:4"> gotten systems into normal  thinking and we haven't gotten  sustainability</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:7"> and normal thinking these  things are not actually</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:10"> on anybody's top  10 list or</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:13"> top 100 list most</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:16"> people have  not built up the background</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:19"> for even  thinking about these things and so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:25">another way of looking at this is here</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:28">  are four exquisite</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:31"> systems that are all  part</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:34"> of one system that we actually deal  with so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:37"> we have basically the system of  the natural world</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:43">science we have behind the figure</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:46"> there  we have a crowd our</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:49"> culture social  systems this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:52"> is a picture of self  portrait of the internet</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:55"> representing  technology all the technology</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:58"> the  logical systems we're doing and then we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:1">have hundreds of systems that make us  ourselves</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:4"> up we are a system of systems</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:7">  all of these systems are nonlinear</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:10">all of them are actually interacting  with each other and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:13"> so if we don't  actually get some systems consciousness</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:16">  we aren't going to be able to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:19">talk about sustainability is why I  haven't said anything about  technological</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:22"> solutions to  sustainability because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:25"> for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:28"> most people  technology is a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:31"> perverse form of inverse  vandalism</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:34"> any but everybody</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:37">what i mean by in what does van  vandalism is destroying</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:40"> something  because you can saying</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:43"> i'm here to  inverse vandalism is what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:46"> we engineers  do we make things</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:49"> because we can just  because we can</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:52"> this museum i went</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:55">  through the exhibit hadn't been back</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:58">  here for a while and i was struck by how</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:1">  much crap there was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:4"> it's actually very  confusing because it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:7"> is actually like a  flea market where</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:10"> there are a hundred  thousand different items each one of  which</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:13"> one or two people thought</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:16">important that they went to the probably  difficulty of actually</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:19"> manufacturing  these and yet</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:22"> most of them are just  complete crap</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:25"> because I ideas are cheap</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:28">  good ideas are hard the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:31"> regular ideas  are a dime a dozen most of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:34"> them are  mediocre down to bed and so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:40">in order</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:43">things including what's wrong with our  technology</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:46"> we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:49"> can't we have to heat  Einstein and tony hoare</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:52"> is anybody here  see the movie spy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:55"> game one of my  favorites</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:58"> and there's a line in here  went</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:1"> Robert Redford access his secretary</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:4">she's wondering why is he doing this now  and he said when</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:7"> did Noah build the ark  before the flood Gladys before</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:10"> the flood  and so if you think about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:13"> what that  means well our biggest problem</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:16">sustainability and all of these things  is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:19"> we can't imagine nearly as well as we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:22">  can experience that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:25"> makes sense to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:28">f the most amazing things and I've  documented this and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:31"> I'm not going to  burden you with them but it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:34"> collected  cases of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:37"> people who have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:40"> like dived into</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:43">  a raging flood river to save a child</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:46">  they've never seen before</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:49"> some of these  people were</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:52"> asked whether they had</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:55">  supported building higher</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:58"> dams most of  them hadn't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:1"> so one of the most  interesting</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:4"> things about it is how  heroic we can be and on</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:7"> each other's  behalf when there's a disaster but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:10"> how  blank we are when it comes to thinking</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:13">about the disaster that hasn't happened  yet this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:16"> is why this new kind of  imagination</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:19"> is needed</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:22"> another way  looking at is because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:25"> we're talking  everybody loves change how</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:28"> many people  here work for a business</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:34">o over I don't know 45 years or so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:37"> I've  done most of my research at businesses  and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:40"> every six</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:43"> months or so there are  meetings about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:46"> hey we have to  re-engineer the system they there's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:49"> some  phrase about and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:52"> everybody's  enthusiastic about it because yes of  course</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:55"> we do you know we're fucking up  all over the place of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:58"> course we have to  fix it the school American</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:1"> school system  desperately needs to be fixed</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:4"> no kidding  so everybody</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:7"> loves it except</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:10">he change part oh</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:13"> no</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:16"> so we can deal  with something intellectually just</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:19">we can talk about sustainability but  when it comes to actually</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:22"> do it these  other parts of the pachinko machine</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:25"> kick  in because almost all</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:28"> changes are  impugning our own reality</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:31"> this is why  especially religious</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:34"> wars are so  terrible because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:37"> once you've identified  with a religion you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:40"> can't have a real  discussion about it with somebody else</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:43">  because at some point either you or they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:46">  are actually attacking your own identity</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:49">  because you've tied us so closely to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:52">  this so this is why things rarely happen</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:55">  it's sort of the low-pass filter</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:58"> that  takes every idea down to a dial tone</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:1"> and  we wind up coping</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:4"> and way we cope is by</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:7">  making things quote-unquote better</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:10"> so  here's a we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:13"> can put anything over here  I've got 75</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:16"> years there put anything  could be learning</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:19"> could be change  anything anything</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:22"> we need to get better  at</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:25"> and here's what we do in America we  make this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:28"> graph every time that guy goes  up</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:31"> there's an article in the paper and  people cheer</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:34"> and every time it goes down  there's an article</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:37"> in the paper and  people moan let's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:40"> say it's reading these  are reading scores</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:43"> that look familiar is  it may be there</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:46"> too going up reading is  probably trending</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:49"> yeah turns out it's  completely irrelevant</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:52"> because if you  don't read that well you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:55"> aren't reading  and the real</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:58"> problem in America is  almost no children are fluent in reading</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:1">  enough to read for purpose</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:4"> this whole  system has been</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:7"> game down to the point  where these</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:10"> things are deemed to be  significant</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:13"> where we're produced the  nation that cannot do</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:16">anymore  and the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:19"> conflict is usually between</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:22"> this  idea of better</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:25"> well at least we're  improving</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:28"> least we're getting better  then</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:31"> there the other con the other  extreme is but it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:34"> not perfect never  been</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:37"> in a meeting between the betters  and the perfect just</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:40"> drives you crazy  because they're both</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:43"> completely wrong  the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:46"> better guys are dealing in the news  range they're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:49"> never going to get there  if something new is needed the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:52">guys are dealing in a place where the  probability of getting</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:55"> it at that level  is zero</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:58"> they're just too idealistic and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:1">  so what's what you need is a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:4"> sense of  this above</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:7"> threshold region which starts</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:10">the category called what is actually  needed they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:13"> don't care whether it's  better and we aren't going to get  perfect</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:16"> so we have to aim for what is  needed</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:19"> and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:22"> so this is what we did at  Xerox</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:25"> PARC so Nicholas gave you a little  history</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:28"> I'm not going to do that but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:31">  basically Xerox PARC hit the ball out of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:34">  the park maybe</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:37"> 15 times in a period of  about five years</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:40"> so included not just  the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:43"> alto that the GUI object-oriented</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:46">  programming the ethernet the whole laser</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:49">printer a whole bunch of other things  each one of these things</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:52"> were trillion  dollar industries and the net</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:55"> return  from Xerox PARC today has been around</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:58"> 31  or 32 trillion dollars that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:1"> was done  over a period of about five years by  about two</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:4"> dozen of us and if we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:7">of those things it would have been  actually we had luck</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:10"> we were very lucky  in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:13"> our manager you let us do what needed</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:16">  to be done but when</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:19"> you do it 15 times  there's some process involved</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:22"> there and  part of the process is you have to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:25">  pick that little sweet spot there we  actually</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:28"> call it the McCready speed  sweet spot McCready</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:31"> is the guy who did  man-powered flight so he is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:34"> one of the  most amazing problem finders</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:37"> and problem  solvers to the point that he was in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:40"> the  20th century the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:43"> mechanical engineers of  the world awarded him the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:46"> honor of being  considered</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:49"> to be the mechanical engineer  of the 20th century</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:52"> if you think about  what things were</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:55"> done in mechanical  engineering of the 20th century this is  an</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:58"> almost unimaginable honor but this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:1">  guy deserved it and we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:4"> got a lot out of  here's a great guy to to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:7"> talk to and  work with and the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:10"> neat thing is once you  hit that little</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:13"> sweet spot you actually  widen</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:16"> up this area because you've  learned something that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:19"> is like the  things that you need to do and in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:22"> that  range is usually where almost all of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:25">good stuff is going to happen you're  still not going to get up to perfection</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:28">but it doesn't matter because now you've  got this incredibly</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:31"> new fertile area and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:34">a new way of dealing with this with this  area</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:40">okay last slide</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:46">so it's not that adults are hopeless</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:49"> by  incredible</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:52"> effort for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:55"> most of us we can  learn a language starting at</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:58"> age 40 we  can</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:1"> learn to play classical music  starting at age 40</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:4"> most of us don't have  the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:7"> time I learned from silent in the  classical</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:10"> pipe organ starting at age 40  I had been a musician</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:12"> before on other  instruments</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:15"> and I had one of those 40's  crises</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:18"> and I just</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:22"> hated myself for not  following this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:25"> felt need for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:28"> learning to  play this music I love myself and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:31"> so  finally when I was 40 my thought</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:33">well in five years i'm going to be 45  and i can either be an</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:36"> organist or not  and so I just grounded</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:39"> out got up two  and a half</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:42"> hours earlier every day for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:45">  six years and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:49"> started getting to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:52"> be able  to play these big pieces in a nice nice</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:55">  way so it can be done but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:57"> it's really  unreasonable for instance</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:0"> to ask most  teachers to learn</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:3"> something in the midst  of the incredible busy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:6">same with parents parents are already  busy so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:9"> I believe that the sweet spot  for the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:12"> problems we've been talking  about is not just education but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:15"> it's  actually taking early childhood</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:18">education seriously because this is  where you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:21"> can introduce new  epistemological frameworks that are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:24"> not  like the ones that we're born with you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:27">can't get rid of the ones that we're  born with like you don't want to get rid  of stories</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:30"> those are neat but you have  to help the kids take</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:33"> on a framework for  thinking about things that's not story</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:36">like that has the character of  scientific</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:39"> explanations and so forth and  so I'll</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:42"> just leave you with that thought  that the if we've</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:45"> discovered the enemy  and he is us from</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:48"> Pogo then we also  discovered</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:51"> the solution and that's  teaching</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:54"> children in a much different  way than we do now</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:3">very much should</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:6"> I go over no you're  perfect on time you had 32</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:9"> seconds left  Oh Sarek and that's time for one  question</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:12"> okay how about a good one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:15"> or  comment if</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:18"> you're in Italy you never get  a question you always get whatever</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:21">  they're feeling about that day</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:24"> so if ya  if our mush</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:27"> is not good enough we built  the web and we can collaborate</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:30"> but  collaboration doesn't work so how</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:33"> do we  think together and make it so well yeah</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:36">  so the web to be so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:39"> there's some history  and if you go down stairs you'll</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:42">there's a guy by the name of Douglas  Engelbart you may</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:45"> have heard of he's  mostly famous for inventing the mouse  which is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:48"> the least of his contributions  but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:51"> his 1962 proposal</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:54"> to ARPA who was  his funder</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:57"> was a basically</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:0"> said most of  the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:3"> important things in the world are  done by adults cooperating</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:6"> together and  if computers are good for anything</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:9"> they  should be able to help coordinate</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:12">  large-scale things in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:15"> the in the human  in human good and so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:18"> the big problem  with the web is its what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:21"> some of us  old-timers call reinventing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:24"> the flat  tire and if</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:27"> you want to see that you can  just look at the hour</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:30"> and a half demo  that angle Bart did in 1968</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:33"> in San  Francisco showing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:36"> his system working  back then</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:39"> and for that for us that was  the embodiment of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:42"> one important part of  personal</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:45"> computing and you'll see things  in there that are not</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:48"> even done on the  web today so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:51"> it's not a question that  the that this is a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:54"> quaint old thing from  the past and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:57">  the mistake that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:0"> Darwinian processes  optimize they don't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:3"> Darwinian  processings find fits to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:6"> the environment  that they're in and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:9"> the fifth to the  environment is a fit to a pop culture</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:12">  which basically developed the web the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:15">internet on the other hand is one of the  greatest pieces of technology</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:18"> ever  design it was designed by experts and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:21">  there</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:24"> could not be a larger contrast  between the internet and this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:27"> web system  that runs on top</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:30"> of it so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:33"> so the  question of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:36"> cooperation is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:39"> when once  once you have trouble with a word</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:42"> it's  always good to ditch it right</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:45"> so so real  question is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:48"> not about can we cooperate  when we're inclined</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:51"> to do so but is  there any way on the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:54"> internet to build  up trust because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:57"> trust is the actual  basis of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:0"> cooperation it's the basis</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:3"> of  so when I put groups together</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:6">going to i have my current group is  spread out all</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:9"> over the world but we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:12">  spend a lot of time together early on in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:15">  order to use all the different</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:18"> kinds of  communication including things that are  quasi</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:21"> face-to-face like skype</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:24"> but even  if you have a high res</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:27"> cisco system you  don't get</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:30"> eye contact so as well so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:33">way is that negroponte action is one of  the one of the pioneers</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:36"> of this so he  did a big program that actually</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:39"> got a  golden police award from</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:42"> Proxmire but it  was a great program which is called</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:45">  transmission of presence so the question</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:48">  was what do you have to do to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:51"> be able to  talk about this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:54"> talk about this argue  about this argue about this would argue</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:57">  about this but can you have a marital</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:0">  argument over this technology</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:3">  and get to the place where at</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:6"> some point  the key to the thing is whether they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:9">  feel you're sincere just from</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:12"> the  presents part of it and hardly</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:15"> anybody  has done this so this is an example what  I think the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:18"> modern era to me is working  on easy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:21"> problems and mostly doing  inverse vandalism so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:24"> if you think of the  real problems it really does have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:27"> to do  with not just communicating about things  we're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:30"> already more or less an agreement  that's news but communicating</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:33"> and  collaborating about things where we have  to establish</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:36"> common ground hardly  anything has been</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:39"> done and so once again</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:42">you know looking into the anthropology  books is the Axelrod book</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:45"> about the  evolution of collaboration which</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:48"> is a  very important one there's a recent</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:51"> one  by graber that is a fantastic i</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:54">fantastic graber he's written a number  of books but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:57"> when I'm thinking of is  called 5,000 years</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:0"> of debt because the  idea</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:3"> of debt goes back as far as we've</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:6">  been able to track any kind of society  and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:9"> if you think about it that is one of  the greatest ideas of all</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:12"> time if you  don't game it right</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:15"> because debt allows  you to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:18"> borrow from the future in a  sensible way and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:21"> to make various kinds  of contracts about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:24"> larger plans and you  could ever do when</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:27"> you're trying to do  the balance sheets</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:30"> every day and so the  real question is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:33"> how can you take this  incredible slightly invention of money</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:36">it's one of the great inventions of all  time if you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:39"> don't game it because it's  actually part of the meta system</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:42"> gaming  meta systems gets people in trouble so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:45">  the gray book if</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:48"> you're interested GRA  EV er is an american</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:51"> anthropologist  really</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:54"> a very thoughtful book there's  conman's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:57"> book some of you might have  seen called</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:0"> fast thinking and slow  thinking Kahneman</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:3"> by the way was the guy  who first used</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:6"> measure measurements of  pupil dilation to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:9"> indicate in interest  and I would have thought that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:12">have been mentioned this morning because  that's one of the things you'd</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:15">gauge is suppose you're trying to do  online learning</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:18"> we want not just eye</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:21">tracking but you need to be able to pick  up psychological</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:24"> signals that indicate  with the student</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:27"> is interested still and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:30">maybe change things if the student you  can sense the student</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:33">he kinds of things as a teacher would  do face</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:36"> reading a student so one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:39">ways of looking at it this is great  because hardly</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:42"> anything has been done in  the last 30 years except</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:45"> exploiting  Moore's law most of the ideas</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:48"> we have  today are roughly the ones that the 80  started</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:51"> with like we're using the same  user interface</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:54"> we did it Park we're  using the same blah blah blah</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:57"> blah blah  right using the ethernet the internet</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:0">  all of those things so very little of of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:3">import has happened there but it's been  spread widely because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:6"> the costs and the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:9">  reliabilities have changed so  drastically</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:12"> so I think we're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:15">place where it's time to go back to some  of these fundamental</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:18"> issues in large</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:21">  part because of that nuclear weapon in  in the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:24"> Cape guys briefcase thank</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:27"> you  thanks Alan</subtitle>