Difference between revisions of "Alan Kay: Normal Considered Harmful (2009)"

Latest revision as of 06:11, 6 December 2017

this is a kind of a fortress set

kind of the professor against the students

but the cable is short so

I have to duck back there periodically

thank

you all for coming out I believe I'm the second prize

in the raffle

this

this talk is

is about some of the ways I

think about our field it's not particularly technical

it asks a lot of questions

it's an attempt to be critical

without being a rant and

it won't

be successful unless I can get you

to interact periodically there'll

be a couple of opportunities early in the

talk and the title of the talk

deals with two

properties of frogs

one of them is

that their nervous systems like all nervous systems

are mainly interested in differences

but unlike

us they are able

to habituate very rapidly and

so it is amazingly true

that if you put a frog in a pot of water and heat

it up very slowly they will not get out

because the the difference

is that their nervous system are detecting are

too small over the unit of time that their nervous systems work

on and they

will just stay there until they cook and

of course we aren't like that

and the

other interesting property of flies which i think is

one of the most amazing

properties and it was first

discovered in a landmark

paper called what the frog's eye tells the frog's brain

and you may or may not know that the

retina in your eye is acts

part of your brain is actually extended

out from your brain and your eye actually

does a little bit of thinking right

in the eye for efficiency reasons

for frogs their eyes

do a lot of thinking thinking

that actually triggers behavior and

so

one of the most interesting things about a frog

this if you take its natural food which your flies

paralyze them with a little chloroform

but peep them alive and put them

in front of a frog it will starve itself to death

because its conception of a fly is

not that if you

take oblong shaped pieces of cardboard

and throw them at the Frog it

will eat them until it's stuffed because

it's built

in pattern for food is an

oblong thing that's moving and

there's no limit to the amount of cardboards

that a frog will try to try to eat

so one of the ways of

looking at this is that the frogs both

of these conceptions of normal that the frog

has are quite harmful for it

under certain conditions so it considers

normal food to be oblong things that move

and it considers a

non change in temperature as

far as it can detect it to be quite safe for itself

so this is the famous Pogo cartoon

this

true of so many things about us humans

trace back some problem

and very often the

trace is back not to physical nature but to human nature

and I think this is the

problem in many fields a little

bit later we'll talk about how the biologists have

dealt with some of the same problems that we have in computing

so

first so here's our first opportunity for interaction

who's that first guy Newton

who's the second guy

Darwin and

the third guy the most famous face

on the planet

who's that first guy

who's the second guy

nope who's

the third guy

who's the fourth guy

and who's

the fifth guy pardon

nope so first

guys John McCarthy

never heard of him

so

these guys are all magic

people in our field so

John did many of the most seminal things to

this day in the

field of reasoning and programming

languages second guy is Ivan Sutherland

he only invented computer graphics and

in a way more interesting than most computer graphics

today probably if

you had to pick the most powerful

groundbreaking distance

from zero thesis

that has ever been done in our field it's his thesis and if

you don't know what he looks like then

I'm sure you don't haven't read that thesis and

Engelbart so

what did angle Bart do okay

what else did he do

kay so when

I was giving talks in 2004 this is the question

I asked every audience at every University

everybody had heard of angle Bart in the mouse but

most people don't realize that

Engelbart was the prime

conceived of what we call personal computing today and

the prime conceived er of what

we think of as hyper

linking ideas together over a network with

collaboration between people and the prime conceived

ER of what collaborative work would be like and

by the way he built all of this with his research group in the

60s and it was demo to 3000

people in 1968 41

years ago so an interesting thing here

is to just ponder the

fact that even though you've heard of

Engelbart's name if you

had taken the trouble to type e ngle ba

RT into google within the first three

hits some of them you will be doing it right now you'll

find the bootstrap Institute which have the

75 seminal papers that he and his group wrote

and you'll also find the videos

of that what

mother of all demo in 1968

and yet in fact

the internet and personal computing were invented just so you could

do that and so now ponder

fact that you do know the name of a famous person in

our field from the past and yet you didn't have the curiosity

or the energy to do that simple little typing

job so if this were physics you

would all be dismissed from the field

because physicists would not tolerate

somebody being in physics and not knowing

quite intimately what the pioneers

and developers of physics including Newton

and Einstein and so forth actually did it's

not an optional idea but in computing

seems to think that it is so part

of my thing to get you

to ponder is I don't think computing is a real field

it acts like a pop culture it

deals in fads and it

doesn't even know its own roots and worse

than that it does not know about the really good things that

done in the past for instance Engelbart's conception

if you were to look at it you would see far exceeds what

Tim berners-lee was thinking about and

his demo far exceeds what you

can even do on the Met and the web today and

why can't we do it today because the

people who set up the web did not know

about Engelbert and did not take the trouble to see if

anybody had been thinking about this so this is the mark

of a pop culture this guy is the world's

greatest computer designer

designer among other things of the Burroughs be 5,000

and that machine implemented in

hardware what we would call a byte coded

interpreter for a higher-level language today today

we can only do it in software because Intel and Motorola don't

know this is a good idea the bharden

knew it was a good idea in 1961 and designed

and built with borrows a computer that

could do that and a lot more so

you can't be in computing and not know what Barton did and

not know who he was and this guy

was part

of the for funders

at ARPA that funded the fundamental

research in the 60s and he was also the

guy who set up Xerox PARC his name is Bob Taylor and

as they used to say in the old days

no bucks no Buck Rogers so

part of the reason the past

actually was quite a bit more successful

in the present is because the funding was done

better and people who knew how to run research

groups like Bob Taylor you

had to do it so I knew you

were going to give that response because

okay how about this picture

parted

yeah so both of you

were right so iliac one

was a johniac

the von neumann princeton

computer and was built here at the university

of illinois and they actually got done before

the Princeton people did so there are several of these

machines built all of the same plans and the Princeton

people are a little bit late

about that I

just love this computer

so

this is one of the first supercomputers to ever be done happen

to be done right on this campus called iliac 2

and it had the

register pipelining

idea even before the IBM stretch did

so this was a really serious computing

machine done on this campus by the professors and

the students kick ass

how about

this

play-doh what was played up

yeah

then

it wasn't exactly the first graphical interface

but so this is a system that was built

by dom Bitzer and colleagues

here at the university of illinois is one of the largest

funded computer-aided

education projects in history

there are a lot of people worked on this and

give you the scope of it 2000 terminals

connected to large control

data mainframes and

the

flatscreen displays on these terminals

were actually invented here at the universe of Illinois so they could

make flat screen display terminals and why did dom

Bitzer want to do it because he wanted to back project colored

slides they wanted to have something that could

do multimedia education so when you use one

of these terminals in the top of these things

was a Kodak slide carousel and

so when you went to learn something you get a slide

carousel that would have the high resolution images that were going to be part

of it put it in there and then you had a 512 by 512

plasma panel display this

is the first flat panel display in the world

that was actually practical done right here at

he University of Illinois and with cooperation from Owens

Corning

shouldn't this makes you proud to be in

University of Illinois computer science department right you

should be because this

place is one of the leaders of the world but

guess what you

guys haven't done a supercomputer for a long time

you haven't done a project like this for a long time

you're using vendors computers

and vendors software and guess what you can't

invent the future by using vendor stuff it's all

looks back in the past the best of it and most

of it is exactly the wrong way of looking at the

future so Illinois like

most places like UCLA where I'm on the faculty

most of the major universities

country have given up the future in favor

of something else most places in

this country when it was really hard to design and

build computers built around yes

well no I don't

think so because this assumes that there's something good

about what you can buy from vendors and

I think

when that's the case it's worthwhile buying

from them but in fact the

vendors are struggling like mad themselves because

Moore's law marches on and they

don't know the first thing about doing parallel computing for

example somebody needed to be doing that a university

is the right place to do it so not

enough has been done and

most of the great inventions come out of a kind of a

something as more like a university culture and by

the way there is a technology called fuel programmable

gate arrays in which regular students like

you and me can sit down and make

a thousand processor

supercomputer by

writing not a lot of pages of code because

the state of FPGA is of in the last year

and a half or so has gone through a knee of

the curve and is now a serious contender for

allowing people to do huge multi processing

projects by themselves if you're interested

we can talk about that a little bit later

so

me years ago my wife who's a writer and an

actress and an artist and so

she had one of these huge Mac cinema

displays on her desk and she showed me this

display and

was kind of

odd over here

she had all the applications

that she used that were WYSIWYG she

really liked them and here all the app the

stuff that she does on the web and none of it was WYSIWYG

at that time and

so

she said in these apps I can see and

do full WYSIWYG opera authoring and

the web browser has all these modes and

I have to type through a keyhole and I have to

wait to see whether what I did was ok and all these

stuff and and why is that she

asked me and I said well it's

because the stuff you like was invented in

the 70s and the stuff you don't like was invented 20 years later

what do you think

about that how

could that happen it's not that

people don't make mistakes

but you like mistakes to go away

yes

yes and it's

quite interesting

of course where was this

invented

web browser was done

by University of Illinois students a little bit after

that age of people that made playdough terminals

and supercomputers

o in 1993

here's mosaic and

one of the interesting things about mosaic

was was it remotely is nice at what angle

Bart had done in 68 and it was full

course they didn't know anything about it Tim

berners-lee who did do the web

at CERN was quite chagrined

when it was pointed out to him just

the sweep of Engelbart's ideas he was very

upset that they did what they

did the way they did it and even

more interesting

five years six years before the web

was HyperCard at Apple which

is the perfect model if you think those of you are familiar with HyperCard

it's the perfect model for what a web browser should actually

be it had full WYSIWYG editing

right in the thing

and anybody who understand this at

all would have realized oh yeah this is the perfect thing

it already has hyperlinking in it there's an editing model

it's been tested on four million users we know it works

nope a bunch of hackers

got together and

one of the ways to think about

this is Engle Bart invented the wheel and Bill

Atkinson with HyperCard invented a better wheel

that's really great and

and unfortunately

I can't even give the web browser

the flat tire award and

or even the square wheel

because you can imagine improving both of those to

good but you know when you invent a broken wheel

there is it isn't

obvious what the wheel is or

it doesn't even work at all flat tire you can you

can run it at the expense of the tire

figure out what the tire should be in a square wheel you

can run it and figure out it should be rounder but a broken

wheel won't work and so attempts to

fix a broken wheel produce more variations

of a broken wheel and we've

had 16 years of them

ok so

let's a man here you are today

let's suppose you're at a computer

science those you had an undergraduate degree in computing

from back then and

you're faced with this idea

that yeah there's this internet that's going all

over the world and

it's going to be not just

consumption mechanism for stuff that's already there but

everybody is going to be an author and a publisher and

so how would you solve that problem

an idea what

would your approach be to it knowing what you know today or

even what you would have known back

this

is a complicated problem right there six billion

people in the world there now a couple

of billion nodes in the internet there

is zillion everybody wants to do something yes

the

is how much work do you want it you want to solve this problem really

well but how

much work do you want how much do you think your browser should actually

know in order to solve this problem really

well because

think of everybody has a different interest in the

web there's many

kinds of media you don't even know what kind

of media is going to be invented and for any given kind of media

there like video there are dozens of different

codecs and just think of the what

problem is so how would you approach this problem

yes

well but

suppose they want to write machine code because they know how

to do something really really fast

like

suppose somebody wants to implement their own codec

yeah

but you're you're partly partly there but

I'm talking about letting people

exercise their creativity and

sometimes they're going to need the

most every resource on the machine to be

used but

of course we can't allow them to take

over the machine so what would you do

yeah

so it's closer it's

almost a good idea after 16

years including see Google has some real interest

in this because Google

did v8 because they couldn't

stand to have the normal conception of a slow

JavaScript and they're

doing the thing that you just mentioned because

they realize that

people who have ideas also

so ok

so

this is an interesting thing

so

it really should be like an operating system kernel right

the

operating system kernel controls address

spaces that can confine computations completely

therefore you can actually allow

any binaries to come down and be used you can

completely control what goes in and what goes

out and all of a sudden

your browser is simply something that allows

bitmaps canvases that you give to

these things to write on to be displayed so

this it's there's nothing you have to do because

you don't want it's like the

the the good

idea in UNIX was hey

we don't want a big operating system we want

the tiniest kernel we can have and then we want to use

address spaces in order to protect everybody from everybody

else so this is this is operating

system 101 this is well known

all the way back in 1965 and 1966

it

should be the first thing that occurs to anybody so I figured somebody

young so

this occurred everybody in the 60s and 70s knew

this is the way to do it we're all surprised it wasn't done

this way but I figured somebody in

the current generation would have figured this out

and so I went looking on the net using

Google looking for downloadable binaries and

stuff like that and I

found this grad student in Cornell

in 1997 Oh far Erlich

son who is from Iceland wrote

this paper in this paper if you just type in

the title of that paper you'll find it's an HTML document

that he put on and on the net in

1997 and his problem by

the way was hey I want to run a Kodak I want

Kodak and I don't want to have a system bin worried about

whether it's an executable or not so it's this thing should be like

an operating system so of course I

wrote an email to him he's at the

University of Iceland now but on leave to Microsoft up

in Mountain View and had

a long correspondence with him on the

pathway of these ideas and

he started a company that Google

acquired and

is using a couple of the ideas but interestingly not

all of the ideas in this paper

which actually solved the problem very nicely so

this is an interesting thing where it

wasn't that somebody didn't understand what

he problem was and what the right solution was it's that

the larger mass was

quite happy to plunge into a de facto standard

even though most of the original people to

use the web we're computer scientists they didn't protest that

this was a very bad way non scalable

way of doing it they just plunged in and sixteen

years later Google is and other companies are

struggling to actually use the internet the way it was intended to be

that's pretty interesting to me

now another story is

35 years ago the

kind of personal computing we think of today was

done at Xerox PARC in 1973

and

much

of the paraphernalia we have today was done in about ten

thousand lines of code Smalltalk code

written for this purpose and

so another

question you could ask is well jeez

the browser is a terrible

design but it does have JavaScript in it and

it turns out JavaScript even though it's slow

today's standards it's faster than an Alto was back

in 1973 so hey why doesn't somebody

just do a whole personal computing system in Java

like everything Windows

interface the overlapping

idea is two and a half D graphics like every

damn thing in it and

so basically what you're doing is just drawing a line and saying

this stuff is crap but

it runs and I

should be able to write 10,000

lines of code so

the basic idea take the rubble that's the browser

make an arch out of it get

the guy who did the job originally at Xerox PARC

Dan Ingalls to do

make

stronger classes in JavaScript make a better

graphics system make the

widgets and stuff to make an application development system and

and an interactive

development environment and if you want

to try this out I

don't have time to do

it but this is what it looks like running completely in a

browser took about five people six months to

do could have been done any time but

nobody knew how to do it has

who had done it before in the past because nobody

knows how to do a system like that in

ten thousand lines all

right so this is a craft that was lost because

people have been used to just building on the stuff that's

there so when this new thing came along it wasn't anybody

around who was working on it that could just say okay

we want to have something like the WYSIWYG

interface and authoring tools and everything else that we enjoy

on the our regular personal computers and we want

o be able to do all of the stuff in the browser so

this

is called the lively kernel it was done while dan

was at Sun you can look that up so

here's another way of looking at this is if

you take the

minimum bar I would say the general practice

today is below that minimum and

take a qualitatively better bar

I'd say that the best that was

done by the ARPA park community like the Internet and the

thernet and personal computing and stuff like that was better I

think the

best knowledge of today is better

than that it's not that everything

is back slid absolutely not it's

not that the people are

not as good as they used to be I'm convinced

that there are more people of high

ability available today than there were 40

years ago there's not a complaint about the people

but I'm complaining about the outlook

of the that

produces such poor results

now the problem is that the real bar today

is above the best of what

ime ago and it's above the best knowledge today this

is the problem this is why companies

are writing millions of lines of hard to deal

with code because the ability

to scale is potentially

there yet you have a

question okay the ability to scale is potentially there

but the knowledge of how to do the scaling is not

there by anybody so the

real way of looking at this is we need something like that

today and we

have to think figure out something that's a little bit above the

best knowledge today that has a stair-step built

into it to get up to where we are also

things are just going to get worse than

they are now so this is a very very difficult

problem it's been fomenting for years I

you are aware of it in one way or another I'm just

I'm pointing it out not so that you believe

it but just so you think about it yourself

so

back to a couple of ideas so

here's the printing press appearing in 1450

and whenever

a new idea appears you get two things

you get news

news is stuff that's incremental

to what we already know this

is why you can tell a news in five minutes

hey a train just crashed we

all know what that means so the

reason we want to know is we're excited by changes like that

but we don't have to have it explained

to us there's no epistemological hurdle

we have to go through to understand that and

so the original idea for

printing press was to do what monks do but do it cheaper

and there are a couple of other side

things but when ideas

are really interesting is also do

and knew is

by definition not like

what we already know so

there's no news about new there's

nothing you can tell somebody in five minutes about

what new is and

new

for the printing press was a

huge change in Outlook for our planet

and one of the changes was

believing to arguing in a new and special way and

it took 150

years to go from the Gutenberg Bible to Galileo

two hundred

years to go to Newton and three

hundred plus years to go to the American Constitution

but one was the driving force for

the these other things now interestingly

about 50 years after the printing press there

were people who were writing in Europe like Erasmus

indicated that they understood completely what the printing press

about and what was going to happen from it but

the larger mass of humanity took

150 to 300 years to actually gradually

change their thinking around to start thinking that

way

ok Leonardo had a high IQ but

he couldn't invent a

single engine for any of his vehicles so

if he had an IQ of 500 and you were born in 10,000

BC you're not going to do a lot you

can outwit everybody before they burn

so Henry

Ford was not nearly as smart as

Leonardo but he was born in a better century so

he revolutionized transportation

so knowledge almost always Trump's

IQ and

the

with knowledge is most of us know a lot but it's

not it's not good knowledge

might even never have been good knowledge

but sometimes it was good knowledge and now it's bad knowledge

so knowledge is this double-edged

sword very powerful when

we have it right and the thing that gets it right for us is

when somebody is able

to change the outlook the fancy word

is epistemological stance the way we actually

look at things and Newton was one of these people

so he changed what knowledge actually meant and

he changed what engineers

and more practical people could do and so

the line there is point of view is worth ad

IQ points you go

from a weak way of looking at something to a strong way of looking

at something that's like getting an extra brain and Newton

is a perfect example because before Newton the

smartest people in the world couldn't do things that a high

school calculus student can easily

do so calculus is like getting

an extra brain and it makes you much

much more able than a genius

who doesn't have it

so these outlook changing things are really critical

so I think of knowledge of

silver outlook as gold and IQ as a lead weight

I believe one

of the biggest problems with computing is in

a sense we have too many smart people

it attracts cleverness and

you can do clever hacks

but the clever hacks don't

scale well and it's very hard to build a

into software it just stays around forever and

so what what's actually happening

is kind of something like building a large garbage dump

that makes it the odor of which makes it

very hard to think about other things so

if we take news

or normal we can think

we can solve problems avoid obstacles

beg every once in while we

have an outlaw thought but

we went to school we went to church we

have parents we live in a world of

normal and for most human

beings the world of normal trumps any weird

new kind of idea

try having one when you're going

out for tenure

think of all the different reviewers who

already have an idea of what computer science should be about

it's crazy

and people start winding up gaming the system and

doing lots and lots of little papers that mean nothing at

all in order to get

the approval of these reviewers whose

ideas about computing might be completely

off but every once in a while

maybe

in an unguarded moment like taking a shower

getting up in the morning or something you

get a Kirpal

not that this kerpow is true most

ideas are mediocre down to bad

but at least you've got a new Kirpal

and these career paths

are the things that need to be tested out science needs

as much as art because you have to get ideas from somewhere

so when you have to be in a state to

get these cows and then you have to have the tools to be

able to discard the Kirpal if it turns out to be

a really stupid idea after all

so think about this is

if the pink plane there is reality

then what do people think the blue plane is

like insanity you

are insane

and learning

something that your brain isn't well set up for could

require almost as much creativity as inventing

place because you have to invent it inside your

head and so

you can say that normal is the

greatest enemy with regard to creating

the new in the way of getting around this

is you have to understand normal not as reality but

just the construct and a

way to do that for example is just travel to a lot of different

countries and you'll find a

thousand different ways of thinking the world is real

all of which are just stories inside of people's heads that's

what we are to normal

is just a construct in to the extent that you can see normal

as a construct in yourself you have freed yourself

from the constraints of thinking that this is the way the

world is because it isn't this is the way we are

so

changing people's minds is hard because of this

so I'm going to give you just two simple dimensions

so this is the whole

human race just

5% of us are intrinsically interested

in ideas 95%

of us are interested

in new ideas and tools just

so far as they contribute to our current goals

so once we have a goal we tend to be fastened

on it you can imagine why so

mething new we

immediately evaluated in terms of our existing goal structure it

doesn't fit into our existing goal structure forget

about it 5% of us

though are get interested in whether

this is an interesting idea or tool intrinsically so

let's take a different dimension

this is one that has been

well studied about 85% of us generally

do things for the approval of others who

are social beings after all

people use

the Internet very much for confirming

disconfirming what they should be thinking about by finding

out what their friends think about so

this is completely normal to human beings about

15% of us

have many of our motivations be internal

so if we do something that we like we

don't really care what other people think and

to the extent that these two dimensions

are independent you get

something like this and

so 1% of us

love

things for their merits and we

don't care what people think

you can imagine what do those people

do with their time and the

other extreme is eighty percent of us are

instrumental and

our goals

are primarily determined by whether other

people approve of them so

think about what these one-percenters actually

do and think about

what happens to those ideas

when they try and get society to change

and then

the other extremes are outer

ideas and tools and a very

dangerous group of people who are inner and instrumental

there are a lot of managers and politicians

in this group

dictators of countries and so forth

okay

here's another analogy it was an old one and

has been shown to be a good one that when it

rains it's somewhat random as to where

a little gully starts

but the gullies have the property

of being self optimizing once

you get one started they are more efficient at

getting water through them and so they erode faster

and so pretty soon

you've got something human

memory is rather like this

basically once we get comfortable about something

we are extremely homeostatic

about it we love our gullies

and they take a long time so

a little bit like the Frog in the pot occasionally

our gullies will do us in because

we can get awfully comfortable and then get surprised

by something like AIDS which takes a long time to

really show up and

we humans have a hard

time forgetting things we don't have the men in black stick

for when we have a bad idea

or learn something that isn't actually not good

for us we can't erase it and so

have this interesting this is something that's been noticed in

programmers there very large percentage of programmers

think like their first programming language for

the rest of their life no matter what programming language they

learn afterwards if you look at their code it looks like that you

what first language they had because that was the first

time they got fluent those were their paradigms for thinking

about problems so

human beings are actually quite anti learning

and

in fact most of these things are

built into our genes

for example we are a coping species

not a product not a species that likes to progress we're

basically social we all have language

so more than three thousand cultures have been

studied by anthropologists and every single one of

them has about 300 things in common and so

the determination is that these things are not things

that were invented but are actually

built into the genes a very human so

once you've and by

the way if you look at these things you can realize if you want

to make a lot of money build an amplifier for any of

these using technology and you'll win

see why so

you know when television came out the

movie people didn't think it was going to sell but

they didn't realize it was a fantasy amplifier that was going to go in everybody's

home of course it's going to win

but they couldn't understand it for what

it was and

you can take a look at things that have not been found

in every culture and a couple of the interesting

ones are at the top

progress as it was called

18th century is an invention it's an idea was

first articulated not so many hundreds

of years ago because back then was the first time when people realized

that the world that their children are going to die and

to be different than the world that they were going to die in and

so the people who wrote the American Constitution even suggested

that there'd be a new Constitutional Convention every 50

because things are going to change fortunately they didn't

carry that out they were unusual

compared to our current puppet politicians and

the things in

blue they're the non universals are harder to learn the

ones in the pink because they're not as

trongly built into us they all had to be invented and

so an accurate picture of

us is that we're pretty much

cave people with briefcases and

there's actually a group of people who study us

as cave people with briefcases called behavioral

economists so

if you've looked at so one of the books is called nudge

by Richard Taylor another great book is called

predictably irrational by Dan Ariely

these are people who study us as we

are and why we actually make decisions even against

our best interests and

most of these decisions are made because of

things that are built into us and this

would be a humorous picture except that the cave

guy with the briefcase has an ICBM in his briefcase

and a lot of other things that are

too easy to invent for technology and the

wrong kinds of things for K people with briefcases to

be carrying around

so

a lot of what's going on today in technology

in general not just in computing is basically for

marketing reasons we automate the pleistocene

so if you look at what

is being sold and used on computers there's almost nothing

that wouldn't be completely recognizable to a cave kid

right

there's hardly any new media on computers

it's all imitations of old media and most

has to do a storytelling of one kind or another

very

little a little bit has to do with those powerful

ideas in blue okay

here's another thing I think you're all familiar with that in

a short period of time change appears linear

but

often that's just because you're looking

at an exponential curve at two finer grain

so these are big surprises for many

people so

for example with silicon

in round 65 we had Moore's

law and that

allowed us to have a very different look at

what was going to happen and we use the

Gretzky theory of hockey anybody know what that is

yes that's

right so they asked him why are you so much

than everybody else and he said well everybody just goes where

the puck is I go where it's going to be so

this is a good idea because it takes time

to invent things so if you invent things

for where the puck is you're going to be behind by the time you

get done so

what you'd like to do is to know

what that technology is going to be out there

and the wonderful thing about computers

is you can get that

by just spending money

that's all

it is that's the easiest thing for Americans to do we just love

money and we make tons of it

so for example that's what the University

of Illinois did when they did iliac 2 they

wanted to get five or ten years in the future in

computing so they built this supercomputer neuter enabled

probe into the future and it cost millions of dollars so

what if they

built something that was not as a compute supercomputer

at that time all they'd learn is obsolete stuff

there was not going to be usable later

so a park

we looked at about

12 years or so to the late 80s and

said we want a computer in 1973

that will compute like the computers are going to compute somewhere

between 1985 and 1990

those cost

$22,000 for us to make we had to invent them

build them we built about 2,000 of them and

so 22,000

in those days was worth about 80,000 today right

so it costs 80,000 bucks to have a 1989

Mac but if you had in 1973

just think of what you could do

that can convened all the stuff that the 1989

Mac was going to run 1989

Mac would have to wind up being like what you did

because nobody else would have the time to

invent this takes years to invent good things

so when I come to a university

and I see students using current day laptops it

drives me crazy

ou're in the past you're

not even in today and

just think about the scope of the stuff

that's already been done you need a lot more leverage

the way to get leverage is to get a ton

of computer power and write very simple

non-optimized languages

that run very very quickly

and you should be able to do them every couple of days

to get power you should be able to just

hrow them away use them like Kleenex because

it's rather easy to write things like that if you don't have

and the way you don't have to optimize is make hardware that

runs a hundred times faster than what you've got today

so unless you do that you can

only do incremental stuff today

so a lot of the incremental ISM today

is the lure of a

cheap computer when it's actually

standing a lot of people's way okay

and so

I think the last set of ideas here is about

problem solving and one

my best friends who died just a couple of years ago it's

one of the great problem solvers in

fact was awarded the mechanical

engineer of the century award in the 20th century it's

one of greatest awards any engineer

can do it this guy was completely

magic about solving problems

so BAM powered flight is

an idea that's been around for a long time and

so Henry Kramer's idea

was well I'm going to offer a large

prize like $100,000

but people

tried to win this prize for 40

years and couldn't do it

Paul

MacCready his

brother-in-law wound up with

$100,000 debt and Paul

being a nice guy he decided to assume it to

make his wife happy all of a sudden Paul was a hundred

thousand and dead and he was driving across the Arizona

desert with his family one day

and he had been the world sail a sail

plane champion a number of times it was a fantastic pilot

this is driving along looking at a hawk

circling in the sky across the Arizona desert

and he suddenly realized that he had seen the

exchange rate of the British pound that morning

in the paper the current exchange rate the

40,000 pound Kramer prize was

worth exactly a hundred thousand American dollars

so he started thinking boy if I could win that

prize I could play off my brother-in-law's death so

he started thinking about how could you actually do man-powered

flight

he said the problem is

we don't understand what the problem is really good people

have been failing for 40 years so this must be hard

so his idea was forget

about man-powered flight first

thing we have to do is to try and understand what the problem

is you look to see what does why aren't

these people doing this so what happened is people were building very

elaborate complex designs

for man-powered flight and they would take it up and they'd

have a crash it would take them a year to rebuild the thing

so they're getting like one flight every 8 to 14

months and Paul said well we need

to we need to be able to do 12 crashes a day

so his first design was this

contraption here that was literally made out

of baling wire and some plastic tarps

and some aluminum struts

and stuff but you could fix it in a

few minutes so in just a few months

he had flown more had more flights and more crashes

all the rest of the people in this prize put together

they started

getting an idea of what the problem actually was

and

less than six months after Paul took

that drive across the Arizona desert with his family they

won the Cramer prize it was easy

just easy

and

much more impressive than that

was the second Kramer prize which

is flying from London to across

the English Channel and he won that a year later

one of the most thrilling videos you

ever see is called the gossamer albatross you

can order it every child should see it

it's one of the great romantic videos

of our time it's done beautifully

but so this was a

mile-and-a-half on land and this was 22

miles over water

and when asked about it

Paul said well everybody else was

trying to make an airplane

he

said we were trying to do a human

powered flight so

he didn't start off with an airplane as the idea and

started off with the fact that we had a third of a horsepower

at max to

run this thing and we had to do this and that and the

other thing we had to find out what that meant and that wound up

extremely different than all of the other things and

bingo let's

take a look at one

way of looking at this

so here's the effort and

we can think of reward going

up that way and there's

kind of a threshold there

so here's what tenure committees

and NSF loves

they love problems you can do and

you know what they don't care whether the problems are worthwhile or not

because Congress doesn't give a damn and can't

understand the difference between any and Congress oversees NSF

I'm on I can say this because I'm on to several of

the NSF advisory committees but basically if

you want to get an NSF grant you

don't write it for science you write it as an engineering project here is

how we're going to do it here's where we're going to be successful this is

why almost nothing funded by NSF over the last twenty

years has been interesting just hasn't been and

these big inventions that we use today we're not funded

by NSF at all they were funded by our PI

so

the first thing we have to get rid of is this

idea of looking for the keys under the lamppost

which is not where we've lost them

all right

so

you can think of there being a curved

something like this that you put effort

in if you're lucky

it might have a peak like that and

the McCready principle is spend

a lot of time finding

that tiny little place there

it's just above the threshold

of being interesting but

way above the threshold of being interesting so

you're looking for the minimum

thing that you can do that's qualitatively

better and most

good problem solvers are incredible at this they have

a homing instinct McCready would spend a

long time thinking about where he should put 80% of his

effort before he did a darn thing and he

never had a failure and he solved an enormous

number of problems in his lifetime just because he worried about

this because this is where you learn about

what you need to know to do the real deal

and

as soon as you get to that doable thing you've

actually changed this curve and you

brought the thing you wanted to do into

range and all of a sudden you've got

to break through so most of these things are kind of two

stages effects the hardest thing is to get the

funders to pay for that first stage because

it's not cosmic so one of the reasons

AI research has not done very well the last 25

years or so is because the new are

Pro DARPA is not interested in funding actual

progress towards AI they're only interested

in funding the robot combatant of the

future something that nobody knows how

to do but they can sell that to Congress

and nobody can

so

here's a couple of punchlines Susan

Sontag I love this one

all understanding begins with our not accepting

the world as it appears this

is the hardest one this is where

you have to do with this exercise I do

it every day literally not getting

normal considered harmful because

of course we have a zillion mechanisms we don't want

to have to think every time you take a step right

so you can cripple yourself by questioning everything

that you do yet so you but on the other hand every

once in a while you know take

fifteen minutes and instead of doing meditation on a flower

which is also a good thing meditate

on all the assumptions you're making about the

world that you're just taking for granted for efficiency

reasons and try and think of which ones

where the world would be very different if you made different assumptions

the

reason even people who are good at this stuff

have to do it is because we all have the same brains

our brains are defective nature didn't

make those brains for doing great inventions it

made those great brains for survival and coping

so we have to get around our brain

science of course is one of the great ways of getting around human brains that's

what it was designed to do but individually

we have to get around what's wrong with our brains

so it's best if we think of ourselves as

actually being unsane and that we're dynamically

trying to be stable with respect to all

that stuff out there Red Queen said to

Alex to Alice try to understand three

impossible things before breakfast

we have a blind spot in our

eye which if I had many

audiences I do this with I get prove this to the audience

by having them do the experiment where

a dot this big on the paper will

before your eyes and be filled in by your brain

by material gathered from the surrounding stuff

because there's big area in our retina that just doesn't have

any optical

neurons and

it's

the realization that we have that blind spot in our brain is

filling in that helps us be saner

and I guess the one

to leave you with is this idea that if you realize you're in

the pink plane then you have a chance of escaping

it but if you think the pink plane is all there is there

will be no thought of escape because how can you escape all

that there is thank you very much

- any questions

comments yes

well I you

know it's

so you get old they give you

gold medals and the proper response to

getting a gold medal is to thank the funders because

they just gave you gold back before

you turn the gold medal so a good funder

who is willing to back

something without trying to rationalize

it as well as the scientist is going

to do is the most critical

thing in our field because it

takes money like I said in

the old way that Buck Rogers was this guy who lived in

25th century so the old saying was no bucks no Buck

Rogers and so what changed

in the 70s the thing that forces the arc spark to come into

existence was the great ARPA funding of the

60s was put out of business by Congress because of the Vietnam

War it was no longer possible to

do that stuff in universities funded that way so

Taylor decided to take one more shot

at this and convinced Xerox to fund about

two dozen of us to finish

dream of personal computing and pervasive

networks so that's the way that worked and

the funding has not been good since

1980 there's a lot

of money out there but the money is tied to

the perceptions of the funders as to whether you're doing something

worthwhile or not and that is missing the point

the real way ARPA did it was to

say hey we're willing to tolerate 60%

failure if everybody is working on

really important stuff because that 40% is going to

change the world so this is a baseball model

we're not going to fire you if you don't bat a thousand

now if you bat

368 like Ty Cobb did that's good

so that's the way they did it and back

in the Cold War Congress didn't over over C

ARPA the way they do now is the Vietnam

changed every and not

for the better their so that's the simplest explanation and

what but once this thing winds down

getting all of these factors that I was showing it's our tendency

comfortable it's

our tendency to say hey if

I can buy a compiler I'm

not going to make one even though that compiler might

back some thinking I need to do about programming languages because

compiler I get I'm only going to compile the thing kinds of

willing to compile it already has a conception of

what it's trying to do and that's going to

tie me to past conceptions and I might have a good

idea so Park literally built

every bit in every atom of

all of its computing machinery

build all the hardware and all the software and it wasn't

you know it was a lot of work but we realized

it was we thought it would be a better trade off if we could pull

Difference between revisions of "Alan Kay: Normal Considered Harmful (2009)"

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@@ Line 3: / Line 3: @@
 |id=FvmTSpJU-Xc
 |alignment=left
-|autoresize=false
+|autoresize=true
 }}
+<subtitle id="0:0:4">this is a kind of a fortress set</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:7">kind of the professor against the  students</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:10"> but the cable is short so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:13"> I  have to duck back there periodically</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:16">  thank</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:19"> you all for coming out I believe  I'm the second prize</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:22"> in the raffle</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:25"> this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:28">  this talk is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:31"> is about some of the ways I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:34">think about our field it's not  particularly technical</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:37"> it asks a lot of  questions</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:40"> it's an attempt to be critical</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:43">  without being a rant and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:46"> it won't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:49"> be  successful unless I can get you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:52"> to  interact periodically there'll</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:55"> be a  couple of opportunities early in the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:0:58">  talk and the title of the talk</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:1"> deals  with two</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:4"> properties of frogs</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:7"> one of them  is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:10"> that their nervous systems like all  nervous systems</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:13"> are mainly interested in  differences</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:16"> but unlike</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:19"> us they are able</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:22">  to habituate very rapidly and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:25"> so it is  amazingly true</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:28"> that if you put a frog in  a pot of water and heat</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:31"> it up very  slowly they will not get out</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:34"> because the  the difference</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:37"> is that their nervous  system are detecting are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:40"> too small over  the unit of time that their nervous  systems work</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:43"> on and they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:46"> will just stay  there until they cook and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:49"> of course we  aren't like that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:52"> and the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:55"> other  interesting property of flies which i  think is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:1:58"> one of the most amazing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:1">  properties and it was first</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:4"> discovered  in a landmark</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:7"> paper called what the  frog's eye tells the frog's brain</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:10"> and  you may or may not know that the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:13"> retina  in your eye is acts</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:16">  part of your brain is actually extended</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:19">  out from your brain and your eye  actually</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:22"> does a little bit of thinking  right</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:25"> in the eye for efficiency reasons</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:28">  for frogs their eyes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:31"> do a lot of  thinking thinking</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:34"> that actually triggers  behavior and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:37"> so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:40"> one of the most  interesting things about a frog</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:43"> this if  you take its natural food which your  flies</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:46"> paralyze them with a little  chloroform</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:49"> but peep them alive and put  them</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:52"> in front of a frog it will starve  itself to death</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:55"> because its conception  of a fly is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:2:58"> not that if you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:1"> take oblong  shaped pieces of cardboard</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:4"> and throw  them at the Frog it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:7"> will eat them until  it's stuffed because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:10"> it's built</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:13"> in  pattern for food is an</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:16"> oblong thing  that's moving and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:19"> there's no limit to  the amount of cardboards</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:22"> that a frog  will try to try to eat</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:25"> so one of the  ways of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:28"> looking at this is that the  frogs both</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:31"> of these conceptions of  normal that the frog</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:34"> has are quite  harmful for it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:37"> under certain conditions  so it considers</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:40"> normal food to be oblong  things that move</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:43"> and it considers a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:46"> non  change in temperature as</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:3:49"> far as it can  detect it to be quite safe for itself</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:1">so this is the famous Pogo cartoon</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:4"> this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:7"> true of so many things about us  humans</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:10"> trace back some problem</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:13"> and very  often the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:16"> trace is back not to physical  nature but to human nature</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:19"> and I think  this is the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:22"> problem in many fields a  little</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:25"> bit later we'll talk about how  the biologists have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:28"> dealt with some of  the same problems that we have in  computing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:31"></subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:34"> so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:37"> first so here's our first  opportunity for interaction</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:43">who's that first guy Newton</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:46"> who's the  second guy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:49"> Darwin and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:52"> the third guy the  most famous face</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:55"> on the planet</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:4:58"></subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:1"> who's  that first guy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:4"></subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:7"> who's the second guy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:10"> nope  who's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:13"> the third guy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:16"> who's the fourth guy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:19">  and who's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:22"> the fifth guy pardon</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:25"> nope so  first</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:28"> guys John McCarthy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:31">  never heard of him</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:34">so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:37"> these guys are all magic</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:40"> people in  our field so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:43"> John did many of the most  seminal things to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:46"> this day in the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:49"> field  of reasoning and programming</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:52"> languages  second guy is Ivan Sutherland</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:55"> he only  invented computer graphics and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:5:58">in a way more interesting than most  computer graphics</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:1"> today probably if</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:4"> you  had to pick the most powerful</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:7">  groundbreaking distance</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:10"> from zero thesis</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:13">that has ever been done in our field  it's his thesis and if</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:16"> you don't know  what he looks like  then</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:19"> I'm sure you don't haven't read  that thesis and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:22"> Engelbart so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:25"> what did  angle Bart do okay</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:28"> what else did he do</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:31">kay so when</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:34"> I was giving talks in 2004  this is the question</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:37"> I asked every  audience at every University</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:40"> everybody  had heard of angle Bart in the mouse but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:43">  most people don't realize that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:46"> Engelbart  was the prime</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:49"> conceived of what we call  personal computing today and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:52"> the prime  conceived er of what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:55"> we think of as  hyper</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:6:58"> linking ideas together over a  network with</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:1"> collaboration between  people and the prime conceived</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:4"> ER of  what collaborative work would be like  and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:7"> by the way he built all of this with  his research group in the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:10"> 60s and it was  demo to 3000</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:13"> people in 1968 41</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:16"> years ago  so an interesting thing here</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:19"> is to just  ponder the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:22"> fact that even though you've  heard of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:25"> Engelbart's name if you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:28"> had  taken the trouble to type e ngle ba</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:31"> RT  into google within the first three</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:34"> hits  some of them you will be doing it right  now you'll</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:37"> find the bootstrap Institute  which have the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:40"> 75 seminal papers that he  and his group wrote</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:43"> and you'll also find  the videos</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:46"> of that what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:49">mother of all demo  in 1968</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:52"> and yet in fact</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:55"> the internet and  personal computing were invented just so  you could</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:7:58"> do that and so now ponder</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:1">fact that you do know the name of a  famous person in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:4"> our field from the past  and yet you didn't have the curiosity</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:7"> or  the energy to do that simple little  typing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:10"> job so if this were physics you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:13">  would all be dismissed from the field</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:16">  because physicists would not tolerate</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:19">somebody being in physics and not  knowing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:22"> quite intimately what the  pioneers</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:25"> and developers of physics  including Newton</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:28"> and Einstein and so  forth actually did it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:31"> not an optional  idea but in computing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:34"> seems to think  that it is so part</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:37"> of my thing to get  you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:40"> to ponder is I don't think computing  is a real field</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:43"> it acts like a pop  culture it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:46"> deals in fads  and it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:49"> doesn't even know its own roots  and worse</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:52"> than that it does not know  about the really good things that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:55">done in the past for instance  Engelbart's conception</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:8:58"> if you were to  look at it you would see far exceeds  what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:1"> Tim berners-lee was thinking about  and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:4"> his demo far exceeds what you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:7"> can  even do on the Met and the web today and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:10">  why can't we do it today because the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:13">  people who set up the web did not know</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:16">about Engelbert and did not take the  trouble to see if</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:19"> anybody had been  thinking about this so this is the mark</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:22">  of a pop culture this guy is the world's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:25">  greatest computer designer</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:28"> designer  among other things of the Burroughs be  5,000</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:31"> and that machine implemented in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:34">  hardware what we would call a byte coded</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:37">interpreter for a higher-level language  today today</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:40"> we can only do it in  software because Intel and Motorola  don't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:43"> know this is a good idea  the bharden</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:46"> knew it was a good idea in  1961 and designed</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:49"> and built with borrows  a computer that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:52"> could do that and a lot  more so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:55"> you can't be in computing and  not know what Barton did and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:9:58"> not know  who he was and this guy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:1">  was part</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:4"> of the for funders</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:7"> at ARPA that  funded the fundamental</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:10"> research in the  60s and he was also the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:13"> guy who set up  Xerox PARC his name is Bob Taylor and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:16"> as  they used to say in the old days</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:19"> no  bucks no Buck Rogers so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:22"> part of the  reason the past</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:25"> actually was quite a bit  more successful</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:28"> in the present is  because the funding was done</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:31"> better and  people who knew how to run research</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:34">  groups like Bob Taylor you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:37"> had to do it  so I knew you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:40"> were going to give that  response because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:43"> okay how about this  picture</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:46"> parted</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:49"></subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:52"> yeah so both of you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:55"> were  right so iliac one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:10:58"> was a johniac</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:1"> the von  neumann princeton</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:4"> computer and was built  here at the university</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:7"> of illinois and  they actually got done before</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:10"> the  Princeton people did so there are  several of these</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:13"> machines built all of  the same plans and the Princeton</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:16"> people  are a little bit late</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:19"></subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:22"> about that I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:25"> just  love this computer</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:28"> so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:31"> this is one of the  first supercomputers to ever be done  happen</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:34"> to be done right on this campus  called iliac 2</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:37"> and it had the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:40"> register  pipelining</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:43"> idea even before the IBM  stretch did</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:46"> so this was a really serious  computing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:49"> machine done on this campus by  the professors and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:52"> the students kick ass</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:11:58">how about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:1"> this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:4"> play-doh what was played  up</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:7"> yeah</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:10"> then</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:13"> it wasn't exactly the first  graphical interface</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:16"> but so this is a  system that was built</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:19"> by dom Bitzer and  colleagues</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:22"> here at the university of  illinois is one of the largest</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:25"> funded  computer-aided</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:28"> education projects in  history</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:31"> there are a lot of people worked  on this and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:34"> give you the scope of it  2000 terminals</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:37"> connected to large  control</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:40"> data mainframes and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:43"> the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:46">  flatscreen displays on these terminals</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:49">were actually invented here at the  universe of Illinois so they could</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:52"> make  flat screen display terminals and why  did dom</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:55"> Bitzer want to do it because he  wanted to back project colored</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:12:58"> slides  they wanted to have something that could</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:1">  do multimedia education so when you use  one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:4"> of these terminals in the top of  these things</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:7"> was a Kodak slide carousel  and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:10"> so when you went to learn something  you get a slide</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:13"> carousel that would have  the high resolution images that were  going to be part</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:16"> of it put it in there  and then you had a 512 by 512</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:19"> plasma  panel display this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:22"> is the first flat  panel display in the world</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:25"> that was  actually practical done right here at</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:28">he University of Illinois and with  cooperation from Owens</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:31"> Corning</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:34"> shouldn't  this makes you proud to be in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:37">University of Illinois computer science  department right you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:40"> should be because  this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:43"> place is one of the leaders of the  world but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:46"> guess what you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:49"> guys haven't  done a supercomputer for a long time</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:52"> you  haven't done a project like this for a  long time</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:55"> you're using vendors computers</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:13:58">  and vendors software and guess what you  can't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:1"> invent the future by using vendor  stuff it's all</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:4"> looks back in the past  the best of it and most</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:7"> of it is  exactly the wrong way of looking at the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:10">  future so Illinois like</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:13"> most places like  UCLA where I'm on the faculty</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:16">  most of the major universities</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:19">country have given up the future in  favor</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:22"> of something else most places in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:25">this country when it was really hard to  design and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:28"> build computers built around  yes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:43">well no I don't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:46"> think so because this  assumes that there's something good</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:49">  about what you can buy from vendors and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:52">  I think</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:55"> when that's the case it's  worthwhile buying</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:14:58"> from them but in fact  the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:1"> vendors are struggling like mad  themselves because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:4"> Moore's law marches  on and they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:7"> don't know the first thing  about doing parallel computing for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:10">example somebody needed to be doing that  a university</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:13"> is the right place to do it  so not</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:16"> enough has been done and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:19">most of the great inventions come out of  a kind of a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:22"> something as more like a  university culture and by</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:25"> the way there  is a technology called fuel programmable</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:28">gate arrays in which regular students  like</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:31"> you and me can sit down and make</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:34"> a  thousand processor</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:37"> supercomputer by</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:40">  writing not a lot of pages of code  because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:43"> the state of FPGA is of in the  last year</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:46"> and a half or so has gone  through a knee of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:49"> the curve and is now a  serious contender for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:52"> allowing people to  do huge multi processing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:55"> projects by  themselves if you're interested</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:15:58"> we can  talk about that a little bit later</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:1"></subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:4"> so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:7">me years ago my wife who's a writer  and an</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:10"> actress and an artist and so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:13"> she  had one of these huge Mac cinema</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:16">displays on her desk and she showed me  this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:19"> display and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:22"> was kind of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:25"> odd over  here</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:28"> she had all the applications</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:31"> that  she used that were WYSIWYG she</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:34"> really  liked them and here all the app the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:37">stuff that she does on the web and none  of it was WYSIWYG</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:40"> at that time and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:46">so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:49"> she said in these apps I can see and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:52">  do full WYSIWYG opera authoring and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:55"> the  web browser has all these modes and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:16:58"> I  have to type through a keyhole and I  have to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:1"> wait to see whether what I did  was ok and all these</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:4"> stuff and and why  is that she</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:7"> asked me and I said well  it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:10"> because the stuff you like was  invented in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:13"> the 70s and the stuff you  don't like was invented 20 years later</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:16">  what do you think</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:19"> about that how</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:22"> could  that happen it's not that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:25"> people don't  make mistakes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:28"> but you like mistakes to  go away</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:31"> yes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:34"> yes and it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:37"> quite  interesting</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:40"> of course where was this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:43">  invented</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:46"> web browser was done</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:49"> by  University of Illinois students a little  bit after</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:52"> that age of people that made  playdough terminals</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:17:55"> and supercomputers</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:4">o in 1993</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:7">  here's mosaic and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:10"> one of the interesting  things about mosaic</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:13"> was was it remotely  is nice at what angle</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:16"> Bart had done in  68 and it was full</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:19">course they didn't know anything about  it Tim</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:22"> berners-lee who did do the web</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:25"> at  CERN was quite chagrined</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:28"> when it was  pointed out to him just</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:31"> the sweep of  Engelbart's ideas he was very</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:34"> upset that  they did what they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:37"> did the way they did  it and even</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:40"> more interesting</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:43"> five years  six years before the web</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:46">was HyperCard  at Apple which</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:49"> is the perfect model if  you think those of you are familiar with  HyperCard</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:52"> it's the perfect model for  what a web browser should actually</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:55"> be it  had full WYSIWYG editing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:18:58">  right in the thing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:1"> and anybody who  understand this at</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:4"> all would have  realized oh yeah this is the perfect  thing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:7"> it already has hyperlinking in it  there's an editing model</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:10"> it's been  tested on four million users we know it  works</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:13">  nope a bunch of hackers</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:16"> got together and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:19">one of the ways to think about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:22"> this is  Engle Bart invented the wheel and Bill</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:25">Atkinson with HyperCard invented a  better wheel</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:28"> that's really great and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:31"> and  unfortunately</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:34"> I can't even give the web  browser</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:37"> the flat tire award and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:40"> or even  the square wheel</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:43"> because you can imagine  improving both of those to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:46">good but you know when you invent a  broken wheel</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:49"> there is it isn't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:52"> obvious  what the wheel is or</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:55"> it doesn't even  work at all flat tire you can you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:19:58"> can  run it at the expense of the tire</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:1">figure out what the tire should be in a  square wheel you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:4"> can run it and figure  out it should be rounder but a broken</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:7">wheel won't work  and so attempts to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:10"> fix a broken wheel  produce more variations</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:13"> of a broken  wheel and we've</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:16"> had 16 years of them</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:19"></subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:22"> ok  so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:25"> let's a man here you are today</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:28"> let's  suppose you're at a computer</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:31"> science  those you had an undergraduate degree in  computing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:34"> from back then and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:37"> you're  faced with this idea</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:40"> that yeah there's  this internet that's going all</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:43"> over the  world and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:46"> it's going to be not just</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:49">consumption mechanism for stuff that's  already there but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:52"> everybody is going to  be an author and a publisher and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:55"> so how  would you solve that problem</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:20:58">an idea  what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:1"> would your approach be to it  knowing what you know today or</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:4"> even what  you would have known back</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:7">this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:10"> is a complicated problem right  there six billion</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:13"> people in the world  there now a couple</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:16"> of billion nodes in  the internet there</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:19"> is zillion everybody  wants to do something yes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:22"> the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:25">is how much work do you want it you want  to solve this problem really</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:28"> well but  how</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:31"> much work do you want how much do  you think your browser should actually</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:34">  know in order to solve this problem  really</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:37"> well because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:40"> think of everybody  has a different interest in the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:43"> web  there's many</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:46"> kinds of media you don't  even know what kind</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:49"> of media is going to  be invented and for any given kind of  media</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:52"> there  like video there are dozens of different</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:55">  codecs and just think of the what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:21:58">problem is so how would you approach  this problem</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:1"> yes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:10">well but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:13"> suppose they want to write  machine code because they know how</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:16"> to do  something really really fast</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:19"> like</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:22">suppose somebody wants to implement  their own codec</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:25"> yeah</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:28"> but you're you're  partly partly there but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:31"> I'm talking  about letting people</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:34"> exercise their  creativity and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:37"> sometimes they're going  to need the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:40"> most every resource on the  machine to be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:43"> used but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:46"> of course we  can't allow them to take</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:22:49"> over the  machine so what would you do</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:7">yeah</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:10"> so it's closer it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:13"> almost a good  idea after 16</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:16"> years including see Google  has some real interest</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:19"> in this because  Google</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:22"> did v8 because they couldn't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:25">  stand to have the normal conception of a  slow</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:28"> JavaScript and they're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:31"> doing the  thing that you just mentioned because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:34">  they realize that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:37"> people who have ideas  also</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:40"> so ok</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:43"> so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:46"> this is an interesting  thing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:49"> so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:52"> it really should be like an  operating system kernel right</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:55"> the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:23:58">  operating system kernel controls address</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:1">  spaces that can confine computations  completely</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:4"> therefore you can actually  allow</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:7"> any binaries to come down and be  used you can</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:10"> completely control what  goes in and what goes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:13"> out and all of a  sudden</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:16"> your browser is simply something  that allows</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:19"> bitmaps canvases that you  give to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:22"> these things to write on to be  displayed so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:25"> this it's there's nothing  you have to do because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:28"> you don't want  it's like the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:31"> the the good</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:34"> idea in UNIX  was hey</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:37"> we don't want a big operating  system we want</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:40"> the tiniest kernel we can  have and then we want to use</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:43"> address  spaces in order to protect everybody  from everybody</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:46"> else so this is this is  operating</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:49"> system 101 this is well known</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:52">  all the way back in 1965 and 1966</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:55"> it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:24:58">should be the first thing that occurs to  anybody so I figured somebody</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:1"> young so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:4">  this occurred everybody in the 60s and  70s knew</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:7"> this is the way to do it we're  all surprised it wasn't done</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:10"> this way  but I figured somebody in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:13"> the current  generation would have figured this out</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:16">  and so I went looking on the net using</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:19">  Google looking for downloadable binaries  and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:22"> stuff like that  and I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:25"> found this grad student in Cornell</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:28">  in 1997 Oh far Erlich</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:31"> son who is from  Iceland wrote</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:34"> this paper in this paper  if you just type in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:37"> the title of that  paper you'll find it's an HTML document</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:40">  that he put on and on the net in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:43"> 1997  and his problem by</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:46"> the way was hey I  want to run a Kodak I want</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:49">Kodak and I don't want to have a system  bin worried about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:52"> whether it's an  executable or not so it's this thing  should be like</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:55"> an operating system so of  course I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:25:58"> wrote an email to him he's at  the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:1"> University of Iceland now but on  leave to Microsoft up</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:4"> in Mountain View  and had</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:7"> a long correspondence with him  on the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:10"> pathway of these ideas and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:13"> he  started a company that Google</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:16"> acquired  and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:19"> is using a couple of the ideas but  interestingly not</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:22"> all of the ideas in  this paper</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:25"> which actually solved the  problem very nicely so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:28"> this is an  interesting thing where it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:31"> wasn't that  somebody didn't understand what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:34">he problem was and what the right  solution was it's that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:37"> the larger mass  was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:40"> quite happy to plunge into a de  facto standard</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:43"> even though most of the  original people to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:46"> use the web we're  computer scientists they didn't protest  that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:49"> this was a very bad way non  scalable</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:52"> way of doing it  they just plunged in and sixteen</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:55"> years  later Google is and other companies are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:26:58">struggling to actually use the internet  the way it was intended to be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:1"> that's  pretty interesting to me</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:4"> now another  story is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:7"> 35 years ago the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:10"> kind of  personal computing we think of today was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:13">  done at Xerox PARC in 1973</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:16"> and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:19">much</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:22"> of the paraphernalia we have today  was done in about ten</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:25"> thousand lines of  code Smalltalk code</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:28"> written for this  purpose and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:31"> so another</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:34"> question you  could ask is well jeez</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:37"> the browser is a  terrible</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:40"> design but it does have  JavaScript in it and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:43"> it turns out  JavaScript even though it's slow</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:46">today's standards it's faster than an  Alto was back</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:49"> in 1973 so hey why doesn't  somebody</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:52"> just do a whole personal  computing system in Java</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:55">  like everything Windows</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:27:58"> interface the  overlapping</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:1"> idea is two and a half D  graphics like every</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:4"> damn thing in it and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:7">so basically what you're doing is just  drawing a line and saying</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:10"> this stuff is  crap but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:13"> it runs and I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:16"> should be able to  write 10,000</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:19"> lines of code so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:22"> the basic  idea take the rubble that's the browser</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:25">  make an arch out of it get</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:28"> the guy who  did the job originally at Xerox PARC</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:31"> Dan  Ingalls to do</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:37">make</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:40"> stronger classes in JavaScript make  a better</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:43"> graphics system make the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:46">widgets and stuff to make an application  development system and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:49"> and an  interactive</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:52"> development environment and  if you want</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:55"> to try this out I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:28:58"></subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:1"> don't have  time to do</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:4"> it but this is what it looks  like running completely in a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:7"> browser  took about five people six months to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:10"> do  could have been done any time but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:13"> nobody  knew how to do it has</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:16">who had done it before in the past  because nobody</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:19"> knows how to do a system  like that in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:22"> ten thousand lines all</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:25">right so this is a craft that was lost  because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:28"> people have been used to just  building on the stuff that's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:31">there so when this new thing came along  it wasn't anybody</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:34"> around who was working  on it that could just say okay</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:37"> we want  to have something like the WYSIWYG</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:40">interface and authoring tools and  everything else that we enjoy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:43"> on the our  regular personal computers and we want</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:46">o be able to do all of the stuff in the  browser so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:49"> this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:52"> is called the lively  kernel it was done while dan</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:55"> was at Sun  you can look that up so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:29:58"> here's another  way of looking at this is if</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:1"> you take  the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:4"> minimum bar I would say the general  practice</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:7"> today is below that minimum and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:10">  take a qualitatively better bar</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:13"> I'd say  that the best that was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:16"> done by the ARPA  park community like the Internet and the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:19">thernet and personal computing and  stuff like that was better I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:22"> think the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:25">  best knowledge of today is better</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:28"> than  that it's not that everything</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:31"> is back  slid absolutely not it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:34"> not that the  people are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:37"> not as good as they used to  be I'm convinced</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:40"> that there are more  people of high</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:43"> ability available today  than there were 40</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:46"> years ago there's not  a complaint about the people</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:49"> but I'm  complaining about the outlook</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:52"> of the  that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:55"> produces such poor results</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:30:58"> now the  problem is that the real bar today</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:1"> is  above the best of what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:4">ime ago and it's above the best  knowledge today this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:7"> is the problem this  is why companies</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:10"> are writing millions of  lines of hard to deal</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:13"> with code because  the ability</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:16"> to scale is potentially</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:19">  there yet you have a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:22"> question okay the  ability to scale is potentially there</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:25">but the knowledge of how to do the  scaling is not</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:28"> there by anybody so the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:31">real way of looking at this is we need  something like that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:34"> today  and we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:37"> have to think figure out  something that's a little bit above the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:40">best knowledge today that has a  stair-step built</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:43"> into it to get up to  where we are also</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:46"> things are just going  to get worse than</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:49"> they are now so this  is a very very difficult</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:52"> problem it's  been fomenting for years I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:55">you are aware of it in one way or  another I'm just</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:31:58"> I'm pointing it out not  so that you believe</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:1">it but just so you think about it  yourself</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:4"></subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:7"> so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:10"> back to a couple of ideas so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:13">  here's the printing press appearing in  1450</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:16"> and whenever</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:19"> a new idea appears you  get two things</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:22"> you get news</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:25"> news is  stuff that's incremental</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:28"> to what we  already know this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:31"> is why you can tell a  news in five minutes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:34"> hey a train just  crashed we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:37"> all know what that means so  the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:40"> reason we want to know is we're  excited by changes like that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:43"> but we  don't have to have it explained</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:46"> to us  there's no epistemological hurdle</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:49"> we  have to go through to understand that  and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:52"> so the original idea for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:55">printing press was to do what monks do  but do it cheaper</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:32:58"> and there are a couple  of other side</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:1"> things but when ideas</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:4"> are  really interesting is also do</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:7">  and knew is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:10"> by definition not like</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:13"> what  we already know so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:16"> there's no news about  new there's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:19"> nothing you can tell  somebody in five minutes about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:22"> what new  is and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:25"> new</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:28"> for the printing press was a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:31">  huge change in Outlook for our planet</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:34">  and one of the changes was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:37">believing to arguing in a new and  special way and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:40"> it took 150</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:43"> years to go  from the Gutenberg Bible to Galileo</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:46"> two  hundred</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:49"> years to go to Newton and three</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:52">hundred plus years to go to the American  Constitution</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:55"></subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:33:58"> but one was the driving  force for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:1"> the these other things now  interestingly</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:4"> about 50 years after the  printing press there</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:7"> were people who  were writing in Europe like Erasmus</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:10">indicated that they understood  completely what the printing press</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:13">about and what was going to happen from  it but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:16"> the larger mass of humanity took</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:19">  150 to 300 years to actually gradually</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:22">  change their thinking around to start  thinking that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:25"> way</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:28"></subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:31"> ok Leonardo had a high  IQ but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:34"> he couldn't invent a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:37"> single  engine for any of his vehicles so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:40"> if he  had an IQ of 500 and you were born in  10,000</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:43"> BC you're not going to do a lot  you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:46"> can outwit everybody before they  burn</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:52">so Henry</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:55"> Ford was not nearly as smart as</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:34:58">Leonardo but he was born in a better  century so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:1"> he revolutionized  transportation</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:4"> so knowledge almost  always Trump's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:7"> IQ and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:10"> the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:13">with knowledge is most of us know a lot  but it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:16"> not it's not good knowledge</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:19">  might even never have been good  knowledge</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:22"> but sometimes it was good  knowledge and now it's bad knowledge</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:25"> so  knowledge is this double-edged</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:28"> sword  very powerful when</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:31"> we have it right and  the thing that gets it right for us is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:34">  when somebody is able</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:37"> to change the  outlook the fancy word</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:40"> is  epistemological stance the way we  actually</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:43"> look at things and Newton was  one of these people</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:46"> so he changed what  knowledge actually meant and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:49"> he changed  what engineers</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:52"> and more practical people  could do and so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:55"> the line there is point  of view is worth ad</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:35:58"> IQ points you go</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:1">from a weak way of looking at something  to a strong way of looking</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:4"> at something  that's like getting an extra brain and  Newton</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:7"> is a perfect example because  before Newton the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:10"> smartest people in the  world couldn't do things that a high</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:13">  school calculus student can easily</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:16"> do so  calculus is like getting</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:19"> an extra brain  and it makes you much</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:22"> much more able  than a genius</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:25"> who doesn't have it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:28">so these outlook changing things are  really critical</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:31"> so I think of knowledge  of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:34"> silver outlook as gold and IQ as a  lead weight</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:37"> I believe one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:40"> of the biggest  problems with computing is in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:43"> a sense we  have too many smart people</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:46"> it attracts  cleverness and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:49"> you can do clever hacks</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:52">but the clever hacks don't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:55"> scale well  and it's very hard to build a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:36:58">into software it just stays around  forever and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:1"> so what what's actually  happening</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:4"> is kind of something like  building a large garbage dump</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:7"> that makes  it the odor of which makes it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:10"> very hard  to think about other things so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:13"> if we  take news</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:16"> or normal we can think</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:19"> we can  solve problems avoid obstacles</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:22"> beg every  once in while we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:25"> have an outlaw thought  but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:28"> we went to school we went to church  we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:31"> have parents we live in a world of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:34">  normal and for most human</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:37"> beings the  world of normal trumps any weird</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:40"> new  kind of idea</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:43"> try having one when you're  going</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:46"> out for tenure</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:49"> think of all the  different reviewers who</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:52"> already have an  idea of what computer science should be  about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:55"> it's crazy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:37:58"> and people start  winding up gaming the system and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:1"> doing  lots and lots of little papers that mean  nothing at</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:4"> all in order to get</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:7"> the  approval of these reviewers whose</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:10"> ideas  about computing might be completely</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:13"> off  but every once in a while</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:16"> maybe</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:19"> in an  unguarded moment like taking a shower</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:22">getting up in the morning or something  you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:25"> get a Kirpal</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:28"> not that this kerpow is  true most</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:31"> ideas are mediocre down to bad</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:34">  but at least you've got a new Kirpal</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:37"> and  these career paths</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:40"> are the things that  need to be tested out science needs</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:43">as much as art because you have to get  ideas from somewhere</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:46"> so when you have to  be in a state to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:49"> get these cows and then  you have to have the tools to be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:52"> able to  discard the Kirpal if it turns out to be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:55">  a really stupid idea after all</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:38:58">  so think about this is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:1"> if the pink plane  there is reality</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:4"> then what do people  think the blue plane is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:7"> like insanity  you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:10"> are insane</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:13"> and learning</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:19">something that your brain isn't well set  up for could</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:22"> require almost as much  creativity as inventing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:25">place because you have to invent it  inside your</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:28"> head and so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:31"> you can say that  normal is the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:34"> greatest enemy with regard  to creating</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:37"> the new in the way of  getting around this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:40"> is you have to  understand normal not as reality but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:43">  just the construct and a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:46"> way to do that  for example is just travel to a lot of  different</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:49"> countries and you'll find a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:52">thousand different ways of thinking the  world is real</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:55"> all of which are just  stories inside of people's heads that's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:39:58">  what we are to normal</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:1"> is just a  construct in to the extent that you can  see normal</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:4"> as a construct in yourself  you have freed yourself</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:7"> from the  constraints of thinking that this is the  way the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:10"> world is because it isn't this  is the way we are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:16">so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:19"> changing people's minds is hard  because of this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:22"> so I'm going to give you  just two simple dimensions</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:25"> so this is  the whole</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:28"> human race just</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:31"> 5% of us are  intrinsically interested</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:34"> in ideas 95%</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:37"> of  us are interested</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:40"> in new ideas and tools  just</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:43"> so far as they contribute to our  current goals</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:46"> so once we have a goal we  tend to be fastened</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:49"> on it you can  imagine why so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:52">mething new  we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:55"> immediately evaluated in terms of our  existing goal structure it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:40:58"> doesn't fit  into our existing goal structure forget</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:1">  about it 5% of us</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:4"> though are get  interested in whether</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:7"> this is an  interesting idea or tool intrinsically  so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:10"> let's take a different dimension</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:13"> this  is one that has been</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:16"> well studied about  85% of us generally</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:19"> do things for the  approval of others who</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:22"> are social beings  after all</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:25"> people use</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:28"> the Internet  very much for confirming</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:31">disconfirming what they should be  thinking about by finding</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:34"> out what their  friends think about so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:37"> this is  completely normal to human beings about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:40">  15% of us</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:43"> have many of our motivations  be internal</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:46"> so if we do something that  we like we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:49"> don't really care what other  people think and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:52"> to the extent that  these two dimensions</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:55"> are independent you  get</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:41:58"> something like this and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:1"> so 1% of us</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:4">  love</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:7"> things for their merits and we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:10">  don't care what people think</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:13"> you can  imagine what do those people</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:16"> do with  their time and the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:19"> other extreme is  eighty percent of us are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:22"> instrumental  and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:25"> our goals</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:28"> are primarily determined  by whether other</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:31"> people approve of them  so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:34"> think about what these one-percenters  actually</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:37"> do and think about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:40"> what happens  to those ideas</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:43"> when they try and get  society to change</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:46"></subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:49"> and then</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:52"> the other  extremes are outer</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:55"> ideas and tools and a  very</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:42:58"> dangerous group of people who are  inner and instrumental</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:1"> there are a lot  of managers and politicians</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:4"> in this  group</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:7"></subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:10"> dictators of countries and so  forth</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:13">okay</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:16"> here's another analogy it was an  old one and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:19"> has been shown to be a good  one that when it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:22"> rains it's somewhat  random as to where</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:25"> a little gully starts</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:28">  but the gullies have the property</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:31"> of  being self optimizing once</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:34"> you get one  started they are more efficient at</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:37">getting water through them and so they  erode faster</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:40"> and so pretty soon</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:43"> you've  got something human</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:46"> memory is rather  like this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:49"> basically once we get  comfortable about something</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:52">  we are extremely homeostatic</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:55"> about it we  love our gullies</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:43:58"> and they take a long  time so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:44:1"> a little bit like the Frog in  the pot occasionally</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:44:4"> our gullies will do  us in because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:44:7"> we can get awfully  comfortable and then get surprised</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:44:10"> by  something like AIDS which takes a long  time to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:44:13"> really show up and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:44:16">we humans have a hard</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:44:19"> time forgetting  things we don't have the men in black  stick</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:44:22"> for when we have a bad idea</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:44:25"> or  learn something that isn't actually not  good</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:44:28"> for us we can't erase it and so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:44:31">have this interesting this is something  that's been noticed in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:44:34"> programmers there  very large percentage of programmers</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:44:37">  think like their first programming  language for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:44:40"> the rest of their life no  matter what programming language they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:44:43">learn afterwards if you look at their  code it looks like that you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:44:46">what first language they had because  that was the first</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:44:49"> time they got fluent  those were their paradigms for thinking</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:44:52">  about problems so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:44:55"> human beings are  actually quite anti learning</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:44:58"> and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:45:1"> in fact  most of these things are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:45:4"> built into our  genes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:45:7"> for example we are a coping  species</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:45:10"> not a product not a species that  likes to progress we're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:45:13"> basically social  we all have language</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:45:16"> so more than three  thousand cultures have been</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:45:19"> studied by  anthropologists and every single one of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:45:22">them has about 300 things in common and  so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:45:25"> the determination is that these  things are not things</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:45:28"> that were invented  but are actually</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:45:31"> built into the genes a  very human  so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:45:34"> once you've and by</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:45:37"> the way if you  look at these things you can realize if  you want</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:45:40"> to make a lot of money build an  amplifier for any of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:45:43"> these using  technology and you'll win</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:45:46"> see why so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:45:49"> you  know when television came out the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:45:52"> movie  people didn't think it was going to sell  but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:45:55"> they didn't realize it was a fantasy  amplifier that was going to go in  everybody's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:45:58"> home of course it's going to  win</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:46:1"> but they couldn't understand it for  what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:46:4"> it was and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:46:13">you can take a look at things that have  not been found</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:46:16"> in every culture and a  couple of the interesting</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:46:19"> ones are at  the top</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:46:22"> progress as it was called</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:46:25">18th century is an invention  it's an idea was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:46:28"> first articulated not  so many hundreds</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:46:31"> of years ago because  back then was the first time when people  realized</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:46:34"> that the world that their  children are going to die and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:46:37">to be different than the world that they  were going to die in and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:46:40"> so the people  who wrote the American Constitution even  suggested</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:46:43"> that there'd be a new  Constitutional Convention every 50</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:46:46">because things are going to change  fortunately they didn't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:46:49"> carry that out  they were unusual</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:46:52"> compared to our  current puppet politicians and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:46:55"> the  things in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:46:58"> blue they're the non  universals are harder to learn the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:47:1"> ones  in the pink because they're not as</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:47:4">trongly built into us they all had to  be invented and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:47:7"> so an accurate picture  of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:47:10"> us is that we're pretty much</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:47:13"> cave  people with briefcases and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:47:16"> there's  actually a group of people who study us</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:47:19">  as cave people with briefcases called  behavioral</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:47:22"> economists so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:47:25"> if you've  looked at so one of the books is called  nudge</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:47:28"> by Richard Taylor another great  book is called</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:47:31"> predictably irrational by  Dan Ariely</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:47:34"> these are people who study us  as we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:47:37"> are and why we actually make  decisions even against</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:47:40"> our best  interests and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:47:43"> most of these decisions  are made because of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:47:46"> things that are  built into us and this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:47:49"> would be a  humorous picture except that the cave</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:47:52">guy with the briefcase has an ICBM in  his briefcase</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:47:55"> and a lot of other things  that are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:47:58"> too easy to invent for  technology and the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:48:1"> wrong kinds of things  for K people with briefcases to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:48:4"> be  carrying around</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:48:7"> so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:48:10"></subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:48:13"> a lot of what's going on today in  technology</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:48:16"> in general not just in  computing is basically for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:48:19"> marketing  reasons we automate the pleistocene</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:48:22"> so  if you look at what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:48:25"> is being sold and  used on computers there's almost nothing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:48:28">that wouldn't be completely recognizable  to a cave kid</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:48:31"> right</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:48:34"> there's hardly any  new media on computers</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:48:37"> it's all  imitations of old media and most</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:48:40">has to do a storytelling of one kind or  another</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:48:43"> very</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:48:46"> little a little bit has to  do with those powerful</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:48:49"> ideas in blue  okay</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:48:52"> here's another thing I think you're  all familiar with that in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:48:55"> a short period  of time change appears linear</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:48:58"> but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:49:1"> often  that's just because you're looking</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:49:4"> at an  exponential curve at two finer grain</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:49:7"> so  these are big surprises for many</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:49:10"> people  so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:49:13"> for example with silicon</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:49:16"> in round 65  we had Moore's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:49:19"> law and that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:49:22"> allowed us  to have a very different look at</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:49:25"> what  was going to happen and we use the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:49:28">Gretzky theory of hockey anybody know  what that is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:49:31"> yes that's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:49:34"> right so they  asked him why are you so much</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:49:37">than everybody else and he said well  everybody just goes where</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:49:40"> the puck is I  go where it's going to be so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:49:43"> this is a  good idea because it takes time</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:49:46"> to  invent things so if you invent things</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:49:49">for where the puck is you're going to be  behind by the time you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:49:52"> get done so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:49:55"></subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:49:58"> what  you'd like to do is to know</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:50:1"> what that  technology is going to be out there</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:50:4"> and  the wonderful thing about computers</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:50:7"> is  you can get that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:50:10"> by just spending money</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:50:13">that's all</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:50:16"> it is that's the easiest  thing for Americans to do we just love</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:50:19">  money and we make tons of it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:50:22"> so for  example that's what the University</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:50:25"> of  Illinois did when they did iliac 2 they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:50:28">  wanted to get five or ten years in the  future in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:50:31"> computing so they built this  supercomputer neuter enabled</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:50:34">probe into the future and it cost  millions of dollars so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:50:37"> what if they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:50:40">built something that was not as a  compute supercomputer</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:50:43"> at that time all  they'd learn is obsolete stuff</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:50:46"> there was  not going to be usable later</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:50:49"> so a park</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:50:52">  we looked at about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:50:55"> 12 years or so to the  late 80s and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:50:58"> said we want a computer in  1973</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:51:1"> that will compute like the  computers are going to compute somewhere</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:51:4">  between 1985 and 1990</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:51:7"> those cost</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:51:10"> $22,000  for us to make we had to invent them</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:51:13">build them we built about 2,000 of them  and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:51:16"> so 22,000</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:51:19"> in those days was worth  about 80,000 today right</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:51:22"> so it costs  80,000 bucks to have a 1989</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:51:25"> Mac but if  you had in 1973</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:51:28"> just think of what you  could do</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:51:31"> that can convened all the stuff  that the 1989</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:51:34"> Mac was going to run 1989</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:51:37">Mac would have to wind up being like  what you did</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:51:40"> because nobody else would  have the time to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:51:43"> invent this takes years  to invent good things</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:51:46"> so when I come to  a university</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:51:49"> and I see students using  current day laptops it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:51:52"> drives me crazy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:51:55">ou're in the past  you're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:51:58"> not even in today and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:52:1"> just think  about the scope of the stuff</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:52:4"> that's  already been done you need a lot more  leverage</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:52:7"> the way to get leverage is to  get a ton</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:52:10"> of computer power and write  very simple</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:52:13"> non-optimized languages</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:52:16"> that  run very very quickly</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:52:19"> and you should be  able to do them every couple of days</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:52:22">  to get power you should be able to just</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:52:25">hrow them away use them like Kleenex  because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:52:28"> it's rather easy to write things  like that if you don't have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:52:31">and the way you don't have to optimize  is make hardware that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:52:34"> runs a hundred  times faster than what you've got today</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:52:37">  so unless you do that you can</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:52:40"> only do  incremental stuff today</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:52:43"> so a lot of the  incremental ISM today</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:52:46"> is the lure of a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:52:49">  cheap computer when it's actually</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:52:52">  standing a lot of people's way okay</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:52:55">  and so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:52:58"> I think the last set of ideas  here is about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:53:1"> problem solving and one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:53:4">my best friends who died just a couple  of years ago it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:53:7"> one of the great  problem solvers in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:53:10"> fact was awarded the  mechanical</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:53:13"> engineer of the century award  in the 20th century  it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:53:16"> one of greatest awards any engineer</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:53:19">  can do it this guy was completely</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:53:22"> magic  about solving problems</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:53:25"> so BAM powered  flight is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:53:28"> an idea that's been around for  a long time and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:53:31"> so Henry Kramer's idea</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:53:34">  was well I'm going to offer a large</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:53:37">  prize like $100,000</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:53:40"> but people</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:53:43"> tried to  win this prize for 40</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:53:46"> years and couldn't  do it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:53:49"></subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:53:52"> Paul</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:53:55"> MacCready his</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:53:58"> brother-in-law  wound up with</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:54:1"> $100,000 debt and Paul</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:54:4">  being a nice guy he decided to assume it  to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:54:7"> make his wife happy all of a sudden  Paul was a hundred</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:54:10"> thousand and dead and  he was driving across the Arizona</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:54:13"> desert  with his family one day</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:54:16"> and he had been  the world sail a sail</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:54:19"> plane champion a  number of times it was a fantastic pilot</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:54:22">  this is driving along looking at a hawk</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:54:25">  circling in the sky across the Arizona  desert</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:54:28"> and he suddenly realized that he  had seen the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:54:31"> exchange rate of the  British pound that morning</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:54:34"> in the paper  the current exchange rate the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:54:37"> 40,000  pound Kramer prize was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:54:40"> worth exactly a  hundred thousand American dollars</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:54:43"> so he  started thinking boy if I could win that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:54:46">prize I could play off my  brother-in-law's death so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:54:49"> he started  thinking about how could you actually do  man-powered</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:54:52"> flight</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:54:55"></subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:54:58"> he said the problem  is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:55:1"> we don't understand what the problem  is really good people</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:55:4"> have been failing  for 40 years so this must be hard</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:55:7"> so his  idea was forget</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:55:10"> about man-powered flight  first</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:55:13"> thing we have to do is to try and  understand what the problem</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:55:16"> is you look  to see what does why aren't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:55:19"> these people  doing this so what happened is people  were building very</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:55:22"> elaborate complex  designs</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:55:25"> for man-powered flight and they  would take it up and they'd</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:55:28"> have a crash  it would take them a year to rebuild the  thing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:55:31"> so they're getting like one flight  every 8 to 14</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:55:34"> months and Paul said well  we need</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:55:37"> to we need to be able to do 12  crashes a day</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:55:40"> so his first design was  this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:55:43"> contraption here that was literally  made out</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:55:46"> of baling wire and some plastic  tarps</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:55:49"> and some aluminum struts</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:55:52"> and stuff  but you could fix it in a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:55:55"> few minutes so  in just a few months</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:55:58"> he had flown more  had more flights and more crashes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:56:1">all the rest of the people in this prize  put together</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:56:4"> they started</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:56:7"> getting an  idea of what the problem actually was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:56:10">and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:56:13"> less than six months after Paul took</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:56:16">that drive across the Arizona desert  with his family they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:56:19"> won the Cramer  prize it was easy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:56:22"> just easy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:56:25">and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:56:28"> much more impressive than that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:56:31">  was the second Kramer prize which</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:56:34"> is  flying from London to across</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:56:37"> the English  Channel and he won that a year later</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:56:40"> one  of the most thrilling videos you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:56:43">ever see is called the gossamer  albatross you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:56:46"> can order it every child  should see it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:56:49"> it's one of the great  romantic videos</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:56:52"> of our time it's done  beautifully</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:56:55"> but so this was a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:56:58">mile-and-a-half  on land and this was 22</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:57:1"> miles over water</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:57:4">and when asked about it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:57:7">  Paul said well everybody else was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:57:10"> trying  to make an airplane</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:57:13"> he</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:57:16"> said we were  trying to do a human</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:57:19"> powered flight so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:57:22">he didn't start off with an airplane as  the idea and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:57:25"> started off with the fact  that we had a third of a horsepower</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:57:28"> at  max to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:57:31"> run this thing and we had to do  this and that and the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:57:34"> other thing we had  to find out what that meant and that  wound up</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:57:37">extremely different than all of the  other things and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:57:40"> bingo let's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:57:43"> take a look  at one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:57:46"> way of looking at this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:57:49"> so here's  the effort and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:57:52"> we can think of reward  going</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:57:55"> up that way and there's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:57:58"> kind of a  threshold there</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:58:4">so here's what tenure committees</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:58:7"> and NSF  loves</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:58:10"> they love problems you can do and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:58:13">you know what they don't care whether  the problems are worthwhile or not</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:58:16">  because Congress doesn't give a damn and  can't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:58:19"> understand the difference between  any and Congress oversees NSF</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:58:22"> I'm on I  can say this because I'm on to several  of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:58:25"> the NSF advisory committees but  basically if</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:58:28"> you want to get an NSF  grant you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:58:31"> don't write it for science you  write it as an engineering project here  is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:58:34"> how we're going to do it here's where  we're going to be successful this is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:58:37"> why  almost nothing funded by NSF over the  last twenty</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:58:40"> years has been interesting  just hasn't been and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:58:43"> these big  inventions that we use today we're not  funded</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:58:46"> by NSF at all they were funded by  our PI</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:58:49"> so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:58:52"> the first thing we have to get  rid of is this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:58:55"> idea of looking for the  keys under the lamppost</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:58:58"> which is not  where we've lost them</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:59:1"> all right</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:59:4">  so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:59:7"></subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:59:10"> you can think of there being a curved</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:59:13">  something like this that you put effort</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:59:16">  in if you're lucky</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:59:19"> it might have a peak  like that and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:59:22"> the McCready principle is  spend</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:59:25"> a lot of time finding</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:59:28"> that tiny  little place there</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:59:31"> it's just above the  threshold</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:59:34"> of being interesting but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:59:37">way above the threshold of being  interesting so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:59:40"> you're looking for the  minimum</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:59:43"> thing that you can do that's  qualitatively</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:59:46"> better and most</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:59:49"> good  problem solvers are incredible at this  they have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:59:52"> a homing instinct McCready  would spend a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:59:55"> long time thinking about  where he should put 80% of his</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="0:59:58"> effort  before he did a darn thing and he</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:0:1"> never  had a failure and he solved an enormous</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:0:4">number of problems in his lifetime just  because he worried about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:0:7"> this because  this is where you learn about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:0:10"> what you  need to know to do the real deal</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:0:13">and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:0:16"> as soon as you get to that doable  thing you've</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:0:19"> actually changed this curve  and you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:0:22"> brought the thing you wanted to  do into</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:0:25"> range and all of a sudden you've  got</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:0:28"> to break through so most of these  things are kind of two</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:0:31"> stages effects  the hardest thing is to get the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:0:34"> funders  to pay for that first stage because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:0:37"> it's  not cosmic so one of the reasons</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:0:40"> AI  research has not done very well the last  25</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:0:43"> years or so is because the new are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:0:46">  Pro DARPA is not interested in funding  actual</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:0:49"> progress towards AI they're only  interested</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:0:52"> in funding the robot  combatant of the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:0:55"> future something that  nobody knows how</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:0:58"> to do but they can sell  that to Congress</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:1:1"> and nobody can</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:1:7">so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:1:10"> here's a couple of punchlines Susan</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:1:13">  Sontag I love this one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:1:16"> all understanding  begins with our not accepting</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:1:19"> the world  as it appears this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:1:22"> is the hardest one  this is where</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:1:25"> you have to do with this  exercise I do</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:1:28"> it every day literally not  getting</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:1:31"> normal considered harmful  because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:1:34"> of course we have a zillion  mechanisms we don't want</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:1:37"> to have to  think every time you take a step right</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:1:40">so you can cripple yourself by  questioning everything</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:1:43"> that you do yet  so you but on the other hand every</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:1:46"> once  in a while you know take</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:1:49"> fifteen minutes  and instead of doing meditation on a  flower</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:1:52"> which is also a good thing  meditate</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:1:55"> on all the assumptions you're  making about the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:1:58"> world that you're just  taking for granted for efficiency</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:2:1">  reasons and try and think of which ones</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:2:4">where the world would be very different  if you made different assumptions</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:2:7"> the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:2:10">  reason even people who are good at this  stuff</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:2:13"> have to do it is because we all  have the same brains</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:2:16"> our brains are  defective nature didn't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:2:19"> make those  brains for doing great inventions it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:2:22">made those great brains for survival and  coping</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:2:25"> so we have to get around our  brain</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:2:28"> science of course is one of the  great ways of getting around human  brains that's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:2:31"> what it was designed to do  but individually</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:2:34"> we have to get around  what's wrong with our brains</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:2:37"> so it's  best if we think of ourselves as</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:2:40">actually being unsane and that we're  dynamically</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:2:43"> trying to be stable with  respect to all</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:2:46"> that stuff out there Red  Queen said to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:2:49"> Alex to Alice  try to understand three</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:2:52"> impossible  things before breakfast</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:2:55"> we have a blind  spot in our</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:2:58"> eye which if I had many</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:3:1">audiences I do this with I get prove  this to the audience</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:3:4"> by having them do  the experiment where</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:3:7"> a dot this big on  the paper will</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:3:10">before your eyes and be filled in by  your brain</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:3:13"> by material gathered from the  surrounding stuff</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:3:16"> because there's big  area in our retina that just doesn't  have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:3:19"> any  optical</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:3:22"> neurons and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:3:25"> it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:3:28"> the realization  that we have that blind spot in our  brain is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:3:31"> filling in that helps us be  saner</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:3:34"> and I guess the one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:3:37"> to leave you  with is this idea that if you realize  you're in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:3:40"> the pink plane then you have a  chance of escaping</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:3:43"> it but if you think  the pink plane is all there is there</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:3:46">will be no thought of escape because how  can you escape all</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:3:49"> that there is thank  you very much</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:3:58">- any questions</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:4:1"> comments yes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:4:25">well I you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:4:28"> know it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:4:31"> so you get old they  give you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:4:34"> gold medals and the proper  response to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:4:37"> getting a gold medal is to  thank the funders because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:4:40"> they just gave  you gold back before</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:4:43"> you turn the gold  medal so a good funder</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:4:46"> who is willing to  back</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:4:49"> something without trying to  rationalize</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:4:52"> it as well as the scientist  is going</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:4:55"> to do is the most critical</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:4:58">  thing in our field because it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:5:1"> takes  money like I said in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:5:4"> the old way that  Buck Rogers was this guy who lived in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:5:7">25th century so the old saying was no  bucks no Buck</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:5:10"> Rogers and so what changed</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:5:13">in the 70s the thing that forces the arc  spark to come into</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:5:16"> existence was the  great ARPA funding of the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:5:19"> 60s was put  out of business by Congress because of  the Vietnam</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:5:22"> War it was no longer  possible to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:5:25"> do that stuff in  universities funded that way so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:5:28"> Taylor  decided to take one more shot</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:5:31"> at this  and convinced Xerox to fund about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:5:34"> two  dozen of us to finish</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:5:37">dream of personal computing and  pervasive</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:5:40"> networks so that's the way  that worked and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:5:43"> the funding has not been  good since</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:5:46"> 1980 there's a lot</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:5:49"> of money  out there but the money is tied to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:5:52"> the  perceptions of the funders as to whether  you're doing something</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:5:55"> worthwhile or not  and that is missing the point</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:5:58">  the real way ARPA did it was to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:6:1"> say hey  we're willing to tolerate 60%</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:6:4"> failure if  everybody is working on</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:6:7"> really important  stuff because that 40% is going to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:6:10">  change the world so this is a baseball  model</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:6:13"> we're not going to fire you if you  don't bat a thousand</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:6:16"> now if you bat</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:6:19"> 368  like Ty Cobb did that's good</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:6:22"> so that's  the way they did it and back</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:6:25"> in the Cold  War Congress didn't over over C</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:6:28"> ARPA the  way they do now is the Vietnam</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:6:31">changed every  and not</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:6:34"> for the better their so that's  the simplest explanation and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:6:37"> what but  once this thing winds down</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:6:40">getting all of these factors that I was  showing it's our tendency</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:6:43">comfortable  it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:6:46"> our tendency to say hey if</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:6:49"> I can  buy a compiler I'm</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:6:52"> not going to make one  even though that compiler might</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:6:55">back some thinking I need to do about  programming languages because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:6:58">compiler I get I'm only going to compile  the thing kinds of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:7:1">willing to compile it already has a  conception of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:7:4"> what it's trying to do and  that's going to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:7:7"> tie me to past  conceptions and I might have a good</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:7:10"> idea  so Park literally built</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:7:13"> every bit in  every atom of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:7:16"> all of its computing  machinery</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:7:19"> build all the hardware and all  the software and it wasn't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:7:22"> you know it  was a lot of work but we realized</subtitle>
+<subtitle id="1:7:25">it was we thought it would be a better  trade off if we could pull</subtitle>