Difference between revisions of "Delivering the Future (1994)"

From Viewpoints Intelligent Archive
Jump to: navigation, search
(Created page with "{{#evt: service=youtubeIA |id=W4Zir_5bZt0 |alignment=left |autoresize=false }}")
 
Line 3: Line 3:
 
|id=W4Zir_5bZt0
 
|id=W4Zir_5bZt0
 
|alignment=left
 
|alignment=left
−
|autoresize=false
+
|autoresize=true
 
}}
 
}}
 +
 +
1
 +
00:00:00,370 --> 00:00:04,750
 +
[Applause]
 +
 +
2
 +
00:00:05,990 --> 00:00:12,690
 +
well thank you for inviting me here I
 +
 +
3
 +
00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:16,230
 +
like the title of this session I think
 +
 +
4
 +
00:00:12,690 --> 00:00:19,500
 +
in the first year I was at Xerox PARC I
 +
 +
5
 +
00:00:16,230 --> 00:00:22,920
 +
had an argument with some of the Xerox
 +
 +
6
 +
00:00:19,500 --> 00:00:25,650
 +
executives who are worrying about what
 +
 +
7
 +
00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:27,900
 +
might happen and they wanted to defend
 +
 +
8
 +
00:00:25,650 --> 00:00:31,679
 +
themselves against the future it was so
 +
 +
9
 +
00:00:27,900 --> 00:00:33,000
 +
wimpy I finally got angry at them and I
 +
 +
10
 +
00:00:31,679 --> 00:00:35,190
 +
said look the best way to predict the
 +
 +
11
 +
00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:36,570
 +
future is to invent it don't worry about
 +
 +
12
 +
00:00:35,190 --> 00:00:39,270
 +
what all those other people are going to
 +
 +
13
 +
00:00:36,570 --> 00:00:41,280
 +
do this is the century in which if you
 +
 +
14
 +
00:00:39,270 --> 00:00:43,410
 +
have a vision and you don't violate too
 +
 +
15
 +
00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:45,289
 +
many of Newton's laws you can actually
 +
 +
16
 +
00:00:43,410 --> 00:00:48,270
 +
build the thing that you have in mind
 +
 +
17
 +
00:00:45,289 --> 00:00:50,910
 +
now delivering the future is a more
 +
 +
18
 +
00:00:48,270 --> 00:00:55,199
 +
subtle metaphor so it implies there's
 +
 +
19
 +
00:00:50,910 --> 00:00:56,760
 +
something to deliver like a baby and the
 +
 +
20
 +
00:00:55,199 --> 00:00:59,039
 +
reason I like it is that there's all
 +
 +
21
 +
00:00:56,760 --> 00:01:01,199
 +
this exciting stuff that has to happen a
 +
 +
22
 +
00:00:59,039 --> 00:01:06,750
 +
little earlier in the process in order
 +
 +
23
 +
00:01:01,199 --> 00:01:11,729
 +
to have a baby to deliver we scientists
 +
 +
24
 +
00:01:06,750 --> 00:01:16,439
 +
call that research so I'm going to talk
 +
 +
25
 +
00:01:11,729 --> 00:01:22,140
 +
to you a little bit about how the future
 +
 +
26
 +
00:01:16,439 --> 00:01:24,720
 +
gets invented I think some of the some
 +
 +
27
 +
00:01:22,140 --> 00:01:26,220
 +
of the stories and ideas I think may may
 +
 +
28
 +
00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:31,650
 +
help you now I'm not a professional
 +
 +
29
 +
00:01:26,220 --> 00:01:36,600
 +
speaker I'm still a scientist as my
 +
 +
30
 +
00:01:31,650 --> 00:01:39,869
 +
introducer said my title is a fellow we
 +
 +
31
 +
00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:43,350
 +
decided at Apple that the mass noun for
 +
 +
32
 +
00:01:39,869 --> 00:01:44,790
 +
know there's a pride of lions we decided
 +
 +
33
 +
00:01:43,350 --> 00:01:47,270
 +
that the mass now and for fellows should
 +
 +
34
 +
00:01:44,790 --> 00:01:47,270
 +
be jolly
 +
 +
35
 +
00:01:47,590 --> 00:01:57,850
 +
so we have a jolly of fellows at at
 +
 +
36
 +
00:01:50,140 --> 00:02:02,829
 +
Apple we have three of them now twenty
 +
 +
37
 +
00:01:57,850 --> 00:02:06,610
 +
years ago at Xerox PARC we invented six
 +
 +
38
 +
00:02:02,829 --> 00:02:10,330
 +
things and I would not be here talking
 +
 +
39
 +
00:02:06,610 --> 00:02:17,800
 +
to you if Xerox had accepted any one of
 +
 +
40
 +
00:02:10,330 --> 00:02:22,290
 +
these it was in fact what happened after
 +
 +
41
 +
00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:26,860
 +
we invented these six things that I got
 +
 +
42
 +
00:02:22,290 --> 00:02:29,380
 +
interested in talking to people outside
 +
 +
43
 +
00:02:26,860 --> 00:02:32,290
 +
of the computer field the six things
 +
 +
44
 +
00:02:29,380 --> 00:02:35,410
 +
were the first thing like a workstation
 +
 +
45
 +
00:02:32,290 --> 00:02:38,470
 +
or a modern PC really the first thing
 +
 +
46
 +
00:02:35,410 --> 00:02:40,840
 +
like a Macintosh originally started
 +
 +
47
 +
00:02:38,470 --> 00:02:44,380
 +
working in 1973 the first overlapping
 +
 +
48
 +
00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:52,380
 +
window user interface first modern OOP
 +
 +
49
 +
00:02:44,380 --> 00:02:55,269
 +
system first laser printer and the
 +
 +
50
 +
00:02:52,380 --> 00:02:56,260
 +
ethernet and then the the sixth thing I
 +
 +
51
 +
00:02:55,269 --> 00:02:58,870
 +
didn't have a really good picture
 +
 +
52
 +
00:02:56,260 --> 00:03:01,030
 +
because I just show another Alto there
 +
 +
53
 +
00:02:58,870 --> 00:03:04,959
 +
which was what we call client-server
 +
 +
54
 +
00:03:01,030 --> 00:03:07,510
 +
computing now in today's terms it's
 +
 +
55
 +
00:03:04,959 --> 00:03:11,260
 +
actually pierre-pierre computing because
 +
 +
56
 +
00:03:07,510 --> 00:03:12,730
 +
clients see terms get corrupted I made
 +
 +
57
 +
00:03:11,260 --> 00:03:15,190
 +
up the terms personal computer and I
 +
 +
58
 +
00:03:12,730 --> 00:03:16,720
 +
made up the term object-oriented and
 +
 +
59
 +
00:03:15,190 --> 00:03:19,510
 +
both of those have gotten corrupted into
 +
 +
60
 +
00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:22,239
 +
an almost meaningless terms
 +
 +
61
 +
00:03:19,510 --> 00:03:26,430
 +
client-server has gotten corrupted it's
 +
 +
62
 +
00:03:22,239 --> 00:03:26,430
 +
the new way of saying terminal mainframe
 +
 +
63
 +
00:03:27,630 --> 00:03:33,330
 +
I can assure you that was not what we
 +
 +
64
 +
00:03:30,090 --> 00:03:35,670
 +
had in mind any more than we thought
 +
 +
65
 +
00:03:33,330 --> 00:03:39,000
 +
that C++ would be called an
 +
 +
66
 +
00:03:35,670 --> 00:03:41,720
 +
object-oriented language or that the IBM
 +
 +
67
 +
00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:45,410
 +
PC would be called a personal computer I
 +
 +
68
 +
00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:48,090
 +
was more meanings originally or that
 +
 +
69
 +
00:03:45,410 --> 00:03:53,070
 +
windows 3.0 would be called a user
 +
 +
70
 +
00:03:48,090 --> 00:03:57,600
 +
interface as far as that goes but that's
 +
 +
71
 +
00:03:53,070 --> 00:04:03,870
 +
the way it goes now what happened is
 +
 +
72
 +
00:03:57,600 --> 00:04:07,740
 +
that around 1975 76 we had about 700 of
 +
 +
73
 +
00:04:03,870 --> 00:04:11,730
 +
these machines both at Palo Alto and in
 +
 +
74
 +
00:04:07,740 --> 00:04:14,580
 +
Rochester and we had I guess eight or
 +
 +
75
 +
00:04:11,730 --> 00:04:17,160
 +
nine Ethernet linked together and then
 +
 +
76
 +
00:04:14,580 --> 00:04:19,950
 +
linked by long lines from Rochester to
 +
 +
77
 +
00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:22,650
 +
Palo Alto and you could actually sit
 +
 +
78
 +
00:04:19,950 --> 00:04:25,020
 +
down and do something in Rochester that
 +
 +
79
 +
00:04:22,650 --> 00:04:27,090
 +
is very hard to do today you could go to
 +
 +
80
 +
00:04:25,020 --> 00:04:32,610
 +
Rochester and sit down at an alto and
 +
 +
81
 +
00:04:27,090 --> 00:04:34,920
 +
work as though that was your alto so
 +
 +
82
 +
00:04:32,610 --> 00:04:37,290
 +
this was a what you what today is called
 +
 +
83
 +
00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:39,720
 +
a natural network virtual address space
 +
 +
84
 +
00:04:37,290 --> 00:04:41,670
 +
the computations actually were able to
 +
 +
85
 +
00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:45,750
 +
float around the network they were not
 +
 +
86
 +
00:04:41,670 --> 00:04:49,290
 +
bound to specific machines and what
 +
 +
87
 +
00:04:45,750 --> 00:04:51,750
 +
happened was in August 1976 Xerox turned
 +
 +
88
 +
00:04:49,290 --> 00:04:54,540
 +
down all of this technology even though
 +
 +
89
 +
00:04:51,750 --> 00:04:56,520
 +
there were hundreds of machines working
 +
 +
90
 +
00:04:54,540 --> 00:04:59,760
 +
software the first desktop publishing
 +
 +
91
 +
00:04:56,520 --> 00:05:02,430
 +
system Microsoft Word which was
 +
 +
92
 +
00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:05,580
 +
originally called Bravo was done at Parc
 +
 +
93
 +
00:05:02,430 --> 00:05:07,860
 +
it was the word processing system that
 +
 +
94
 +
00:05:05,580 --> 00:05:10,580
 +
we used all of this stuff they turned it
 +
 +
95
 +
00:05:07,860 --> 00:05:15,090
 +
down of course that was a great shock
 +
 +
96
 +
00:05:10,580 --> 00:05:17,790
 +
but what did we know we kept on plugging
 +
 +
97
 +
00:05:15,090 --> 00:05:20,040
 +
away at at what we're doing in 1978 I
 +
 +
98
 +
00:05:17,790 --> 00:05:22,380
 +
met several of the executives who had
 +
 +
99
 +
00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:23,880
 +
made that decision and was really
 +
 +
100
 +
00:05:22,380 --> 00:05:27,240
 +
surprised to discover that they were
 +
 +
101
 +
00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:32,490
 +
actually somewhat intelligent even even
 +
 +
102
 +
00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:34,200
 +
for Xerox executives and then that was
 +
 +
103
 +
00:05:32,490 --> 00:05:35,490
 +
when I started worrying because you see
 +
 +
104
 +
00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:39,870
 +
when they turned it down we just thought
 +
 +
105
 +
00:05:35,490 --> 00:05:41,340
 +
well they're stupid they're dumb what do
 +
 +
106
 +
00:05:39,870 --> 00:05:44,290
 +
they know
 +
 +
107
 +
00:05:41,340 --> 00:05:45,670
 +
you know this is hopeless but when I
 +
 +
108
 +
00:05:44,290 --> 00:05:47,260
 +
found out they were intelligent and they
 +
 +
109
 +
00:05:45,670 --> 00:05:49,510
 +
still turned it down I realized that
 +
 +
110
 +
00:05:47,260 --> 00:05:52,060
 +
something much more serious was going on
 +
 +
111
 +
00:05:49,510 --> 00:05:54,220
 +
and one way of saying it as they were
 +
 +
112
 +
00:05:52,060 --> 00:05:56,320
 +
still doing Ptolemaic astronomy in
 +
 +
113
 +
00:05:54,220 --> 00:05:58,750
 +
Connecticut and we had started doing
 +
 +
114
 +
00:05:56,320 --> 00:06:01,990
 +
Copernican astronomy out in California
 +
 +
115
 +
00:05:58,750 --> 00:06:05,290
 +
when you get one of those where you get
 +
 +
116
 +
00:06:01,990 --> 00:06:07,300
 +
a complete miss between two ways of
 +
 +
117
 +
00:06:05,290 --> 00:06:08,950
 +
looking at the world you have something
 +
 +
118
 +
00:06:07,300 --> 00:06:11,440
 +
really serious because there aren't even
 +
 +
119
 +
00:06:08,950 --> 00:06:14,650
 +
grounds for conversation and what's
 +
 +
120
 +
00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:17,680
 +
worse the same words get used over again
 +
 +
121
 +
00:06:14,650 --> 00:06:20,650
 +
but in different ways in astronomy the
 +
 +
122
 +
00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:23,350
 +
word orbit comes from one of the initial
 +
 +
123
 +
00:06:20,650 --> 00:06:25,870
 +
beliefs by the Greeks that the planets
 +
 +
124
 +
00:06:23,350 --> 00:06:28,540
 +
are on transparent spheres you ever
 +
 +
125
 +
00:06:25,870 --> 00:06:30,610
 +
wonder why a planar orbit was called orb
 +
 +
126
 +
00:06:28,540 --> 00:06:33,100
 +
in orbit because they thought they were
 +
 +
127
 +
00:06:30,610 --> 00:06:37,450
 +
on glass spheres then it got taken over
 +
 +
128
 +
00:06:33,100 --> 00:06:39,190
 +
to mean planar orbits got reused by
 +
 +
129
 +
00:06:37,450 --> 00:06:41,770
 +
Copernicus to me and a heliocentric
 +
 +
130
 +
00:06:39,190 --> 00:06:44,530
 +
system got really used by Newton and
 +
 +
131
 +
00:06:41,770 --> 00:06:47,080
 +
Kepler and got reused by Einstein same
 +
 +
132
 +
00:06:44,530 --> 00:06:49,090
 +
word we use today the way people have
 +
 +
133
 +
00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:51,280
 +
trouble with science science
 +
 +
134
 +
00:06:49,090 --> 00:06:56,350
 +
unfortunately decided to reuse the word
 +
 +
135
 +
00:06:51,280 --> 00:06:57,820
 +
theory and people when they hear about
 +
 +
136
 +
00:06:56,350 --> 00:07:00,250
 +
the theory of relativity they say oh
 +
 +
137
 +
00:06:57,820 --> 00:07:03,370
 +
that's just a theory or the theory of
 +
 +
138
 +
00:07:00,250 --> 00:07:05,710
 +
evolution that's just a theory theory
 +
 +
139
 +
00:07:03,370 --> 00:07:09,790
 +
and science means something completely
 +
 +
140
 +
00:07:05,710 --> 00:07:12,280
 +
different we separate out the two words
 +
 +
141
 +
00:07:09,790 --> 00:07:14,530
 +
theory and conjecture it's a theory and
 +
 +
142
 +
00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:17,310
 +
science is something that has been set
 +
 +
143
 +
00:07:14,530 --> 00:07:19,960
 +
up in such a way and beaten on for years
 +
 +
144
 +
00:07:17,310 --> 00:07:22,120
 +
so it is a ball stirred set of arguments
 +
 +
145
 +
00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:23,500
 +
why don't we call it the truth the
 +
 +
146
 +
00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:27,250
 +
reason is is that science doesn't
 +
 +
147
 +
00:07:23,500 --> 00:07:31,090
 +
believe that you can find truth it's a
 +
 +
148
 +
00:07:27,250 --> 00:07:32,770
 +
cliche and a myth does science believes
 +
 +
149
 +
00:07:31,090 --> 00:07:35,050
 +
that what you can find are better and
 +
 +
150
 +
00:07:32,770 --> 00:07:36,070
 +
better mappings of the world so that's
 +
 +
151
 +
00:07:35,050 --> 00:07:39,040
 +
what I'm going to talk to you today
 +
 +
152
 +
00:07:36,070 --> 00:07:42,730
 +
about are because the way you get into
 +
 +
153
 +
00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:44,770
 +
the future is by realizing that the way
 +
 +
154
 +
00:07:42,730 --> 00:07:47,290
 +
we look at the world in any given time
 +
 +
155
 +
00:07:44,770 --> 00:07:49,630
 +
is always through our own mappings and
 +
 +
156
 +
00:07:47,290 --> 00:07:50,710
 +
we can come up with different mappings
 +
 +
157
 +
00:07:49,630 --> 00:07:52,240
 +
and when we come up with different
 +
 +
158
 +
00:07:50,710 --> 00:07:55,120
 +
mappings we can look at the world in a
 +
 +
159
 +
00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:56,680
 +
different way now
 +
 +
160
 +
00:07:55,120 --> 00:08:01,030
 +
the big problem with predicting the
 +
 +
161
 +
00:07:56,680 --> 00:08:04,960
 +
future is in large part because of the
 +
 +
162
 +
00:08:01,030 --> 00:08:07,150
 +
funny ways that human like to think so
 +
 +
163
 +
00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:10,810
 +
here are three ways of getting from A to
 +
 +
164
 +
00:08:07,150 --> 00:08:13,990
 +
B the first one is random walk you start
 +
 +
165
 +
00:08:10,810 --> 00:08:15,790
 +
off from place a there on the left and
 +
 +
166
 +
00:08:13,990 --> 00:08:17,560
 +
at every corner you take a random
 +
 +
167
 +
00:08:15,790 --> 00:08:20,290
 +
turning and eventually you can prove
 +
 +
168
 +
00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:22,780
 +
that you will get to B I always think of
 +
 +
169
 +
00:08:20,290 --> 00:08:27,389
 +
that as a perfect example of hire
 +
 +
170
 +
00:08:22,780 --> 00:08:32,950
 +
management's main way of doing things
 +
 +
171
 +
00:08:27,389 --> 00:08:34,779
 +
now lower in the organization you have a
 +
 +
172
 +
00:08:32,950 --> 00:08:37,539
 +
more rational way of looking at it which
 +
 +
173
 +
00:08:34,779 --> 00:08:39,610
 +
is reduce the differences this is what
 +
 +
174
 +
00:08:37,539 --> 00:08:43,089
 +
they teach in business school and in
 +
 +
175
 +
00:08:39,610 --> 00:08:46,140
 +
most elementary and high schools and
 +
 +
176
 +
00:08:43,089 --> 00:08:48,070
 +
colleges is problem-solving
 +
 +
177
 +
00:08:46,140 --> 00:08:50,680
 +
problem-solving the way you solve a
 +
 +
178
 +
00:08:48,070 --> 00:08:53,320
 +
problem here is that at each step of the
 +
 +
179
 +
00:08:50,680 --> 00:08:55,570
 +
way you see if you can get closer to the
 +
 +
180
 +
00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:57,130
 +
gold state and then when you have
 +
 +
181
 +
00:08:55,570 --> 00:08:59,830
 +
reduced that difference to zero you've
 +
 +
182
 +
00:08:57,130 --> 00:09:01,630
 +
achieved the goal now it turns out that
 +
 +
183
 +
00:08:59,830 --> 00:09:03,460
 +
both of these ways of doing things are
 +
 +
184
 +
00:09:01,630 --> 00:09:07,750
 +
completely have been obsolete for many
 +
 +
185
 +
00:09:03,460 --> 00:09:11,680
 +
many years the way really good things
 +
 +
186
 +
00:09:07,750 --> 00:09:14,100
 +
are done is at the bottom there and what
 +
 +
187
 +
00:09:11,680 --> 00:09:18,100
 +
you do is instead of going from A to B
 +
 +
188
 +
00:09:14,100 --> 00:09:21,310
 +
randomly or by reducing differences what
 +
 +
189
 +
00:09:18,100 --> 00:09:25,480
 +
you do is you go away from B for a while
 +
 +
190
 +
00:09:21,310 --> 00:09:26,980
 +
and find us find a superhighway because
 +
 +
191
 +
00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:29,500
 +
you can go away from B for a while and
 +
 +
192
 +
00:09:26,980 --> 00:09:32,290
 +
you find a superhighway you can get very
 +
 +
193
 +
00:09:29,500 --> 00:09:35,350
 +
very close to B be very very rapidly
 +
 +
194
 +
00:09:32,290 --> 00:09:37,930
 +
then get off find B now this is very
 +
 +
195
 +
00:09:35,350 --> 00:09:40,480
 +
hard for people to do companies have the
 +
 +
196
 +
00:09:37,930 --> 00:09:44,050
 +
hardest time going away from their short
 +
 +
197
 +
00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:48,040
 +
term goals in order to build structures
 +
 +
198
 +
00:09:44,050 --> 00:09:50,620
 +
that will allow them to deal with many
 +
 +
199
 +
00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:51,670
 +
many goals in the future rather than
 +
 +
200
 +
00:09:50,620 --> 00:09:55,180
 +
just the ones that they're working with
 +
 +
201
 +
00:09:51,670 --> 00:09:58,959
 +
now you could think of this third way of
 +
 +
202
 +
00:09:55,180 --> 00:10:00,130
 +
looking at things as a architecture if
 +
 +
203
 +
00:09:58,959 --> 00:10:05,700
 +
you want you could think of it as a
 +
 +
204
 +
00:10:00,130 --> 00:10:08,460
 +
paradigm that's going away from the goal
 +
 +
205
 +
00:10:05,700 --> 00:10:11,110
 +
sometimes called research
 +
 +
206
 +
00:10:08,460 --> 00:10:13,420
 +
it's the kind of investment that you
 +
 +
207
 +
00:10:11,110 --> 00:10:15,720
 +
make in order to find large-scale
 +
 +
208
 +
00:10:13,420 --> 00:10:18,700
 +
architectures that are going to help you
 +
 +
209
 +
00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:20,800
 +
so if we want to predict the future we
 +
 +
210
 +
00:10:18,700 --> 00:10:24,310
 +
have to find some way that is not
 +
 +
211
 +
00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:26,230
 +
extrapolate 'iv something that doesn't
 +
 +
212
 +
00:10:24,310 --> 00:10:27,970
 +
rely on the future being a lot like the
 +
 +
213
 +
00:10:26,230 --> 00:10:29,950
 +
present where else we're just going to
 +
 +
214
 +
00:10:27,970 --> 00:10:36,610
 +
come up with improved versions of the
 +
 +
215
 +
00:10:29,950 --> 00:10:38,890
 +
present so here is a dream called MMX is
 +
 +
216
 +
00:10:36,610 --> 00:10:42,220
 +
done by Vannevar Bush who is president
 +
 +
217
 +
00:10:38,890 --> 00:10:44,560
 +
roosevelt's science advisor who wrote an
 +
 +
218
 +
00:10:42,220 --> 00:10:46,990
 +
article in 1945 and in that article he
 +
 +
219
 +
00:10:44,560 --> 00:10:48,880
 +
said not too long from now everybody
 +
 +
220
 +
00:10:46,990 --> 00:10:52,540
 +
will be able to have in their house a
 +
 +
221
 +
00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:56,400
 +
device the size of a desk in that desk
 +
 +
222
 +
00:10:52,540 --> 00:11:00,730
 +
stored optically will be the contents of
 +
 +
223
 +
00:10:56,400 --> 00:11:03,700
 +
about a small town library about five to
 +
 +
224
 +
00:11:00,730 --> 00:11:04,990
 +
ten thousand volumes worth of materials
 +
 +
225
 +
00:11:03,700 --> 00:11:09,880
 +
and we'll be able to search that we'll
 +
 +
226
 +
00:11:04,990 --> 00:11:11,410
 +
be able to look on look at this material
 +
 +
227
 +
00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:14,950
 +
on various screens and we'll have
 +
 +
228
 +
00:11:11,410 --> 00:11:17,440
 +
pointing devices that we can put new
 +
 +
229
 +
00:11:14,950 --> 00:11:22,600
 +
information in and keyboards and etc etc
 +
 +
230
 +
00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:25,600
 +
so this is Memex written in 1945 by a
 +
 +
231
 +
00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:26,860
 +
pretty good scientist I had some good
 +
 +
232
 +
00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:28,840
 +
reasons to believe that this could
 +
 +
233
 +
00:11:26,860 --> 00:11:31,240
 +
happen because he was aware of things
 +
 +
234
 +
00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:33,610
 +
that were going on at the time including
 +
 +
235
 +
00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:35,850
 +
the development of computers and of
 +
 +
236
 +
00:11:33,610 --> 00:11:38,890
 +
various kinds of dry photography
 +
 +
237
 +
00:11:35,850 --> 00:11:41,500
 +
microfilm microfiche and so forth we're
 +
 +
238
 +
00:11:38,890 --> 00:11:44,620
 +
all being developed then the critical
 +
 +
239
 +
00:11:41,500 --> 00:11:46,660
 +
thing about this for the story today is
 +
 +
240
 +
00:11:44,620 --> 00:11:49,000
 +
that a number of the people who invented
 +
 +
241
 +
00:11:46,660 --> 00:11:53,350
 +
the technologies that you're using today
 +
 +
242
 +
00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:54,790
 +
saw this Engelbart who was a towering
 +
 +
243
 +
00:11:53,350 --> 00:11:57,880
 +
figure we'll meet him in a minute
 +
 +
244
 +
00:11:54,790 --> 00:12:00,340
 +
saw this in 1945 he was in the Navy and
 +
 +
245
 +
00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:05,440
 +
he read it read this version in Life
 +
 +
246
 +
00:12:00,340 --> 00:12:08,890
 +
magazine had pictures on it I saw it
 +
 +
247
 +
00:12:05,440 --> 00:12:11,550
 +
when I was 14 years old as a result of
 +
 +
248
 +
00:12:08,890 --> 00:12:15,280
 +
reading a science fiction book in 1954
 +
 +
249
 +
00:12:11,550 --> 00:12:16,900
 +
so and other people saw it and when it
 +
 +
250
 +
00:12:15,280 --> 00:12:20,260
 +
came time to actually do it there was
 +
 +
251
 +
00:12:16,900 --> 00:12:21,580
 +
already an image of what it would be
 +
 +
252
 +
00:12:20,260 --> 00:12:25,720
 +
really nice to have
 +
 +
253
 +
00:12:21,580 --> 00:12:28,030
 +
it didn't look at all like ENIAC a huge
 +
 +
254
 +
00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:31,570
 +
mainframe computer for solving ballistic
 +
 +
255
 +
00:12:28,030 --> 00:12:35,290
 +
problems it didn't look like a univac it
 +
 +
256
 +
00:12:31,570 --> 00:12:37,720
 +
didn't look like a any kind of mainframe
 +
 +
257
 +
00:12:35,290 --> 00:12:40,000
 +
computer in IBM 650 this looked like
 +
 +
258
 +
00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:41,520
 +
something that a person could use and
 +
 +
259
 +
00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:46,450
 +
actually this became the rallying cry
 +
 +
260
 +
00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:49,110
 +
starting around 1960 ok so there are
 +
 +
261
 +
00:12:46,450 --> 00:12:51,910
 +
several different ways of thinking about
 +
 +
262
 +
00:12:49,110 --> 00:12:53,380
 +
computing back then one was that the
 +
 +
263
 +
00:12:51,910 --> 00:12:56,320
 +
mainframe was gone of a universal
 +
 +
264
 +
00:12:53,380 --> 00:13:00,370
 +
factory that was IBM's way of thinking
 +
 +
265
 +
00:12:56,320 --> 00:13:04,530
 +
about it Engelbert thought of computing
 +
 +
266
 +
00:13:00,370 --> 00:13:07,930
 +
as a kind of a vehicle now Engle Bart
 +
 +
267
 +
00:13:04,530 --> 00:13:11,080
 +
was the guy who invented the mouse and
 +
 +
268
 +
00:13:07,930 --> 00:13:12,910
 +
that looks like a fairly modern picture
 +
 +
269
 +
00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:14,980
 +
because let me ask the crowd here how
 +
 +
270
 +
00:13:12,910 --> 00:13:19,240
 +
many people have in their office right
 +
 +
271
 +
00:13:14,980 --> 00:13:20,770
 +
now a two-page display right not one of
 +
 +
272
 +
00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:22,510
 +
these little guys but one of these guys
 +
 +
273
 +
00:13:20,770 --> 00:13:25,510
 +
you can put two two full pages of
 +
 +
274
 +
00:13:22,510 --> 00:13:27,460
 +
display okay couple people so there's
 +
 +
275
 +
00:13:25,510 --> 00:13:29,830
 +
one right there that was the first one
 +
 +
276
 +
00:13:27,460 --> 00:13:36,390
 +
anybody ever used that picture was taken
 +
 +
277
 +
00:13:29,830 --> 00:13:38,740
 +
in 1966 okay so in 1966 Engelbart had
 +
 +
278
 +
00:13:36,390 --> 00:13:41,080
 +
thought through that computers were not
 +
 +
279
 +
00:13:38,740 --> 00:13:44,620
 +
about processing numbers they were
 +
 +
280
 +
00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:45,790
 +
actually there to relate information now
 +
 +
281
 +
00:13:44,620 --> 00:13:47,980
 +
he was one of the people who invented
 +
 +
282
 +
00:13:45,790 --> 00:13:49,210
 +
one of the first word processors but he
 +
 +
283
 +
00:13:47,980 --> 00:13:50,280
 +
didn't think computers were for word
 +
 +
284
 +
00:13:49,210 --> 00:13:52,600
 +
processing
 +
 +
285
 +
00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:54,820
 +
he didn't think they were for outlying
 +
 +
286
 +
00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:57,040
 +
processing he thought that they were for
 +
 +
287
 +
00:13:54,820 --> 00:14:00,340
 +
relating information and he realized
 +
 +
288
 +
00:13:57,040 --> 00:14:09,550
 +
something very very profound about
 +
 +
289
 +
00:14:00,340 --> 00:14:12,790
 +
computing that is an ordinary physical
 +
 +
290
 +
00:14:09,550 --> 00:14:16,720
 +
space that we live in if we have point a
 +
 +
291
 +
00:14:12,790 --> 00:14:19,560
 +
here and we have a point B down here it
 +
 +
292
 +
00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:19,560
 +
isn't the same place
 +
 +
293
 +
00:14:21,100 --> 00:14:27,420
 +
what's been generated in between them is
 +
 +
294
 +
00:14:23,730 --> 00:14:30,910
 +
that horrible thing called distance an
 +
 +
295
 +
00:14:27,420 --> 00:14:32,320
 +
angle Bart realized something very
 +
 +
296
 +
00:14:30,910 --> 00:14:34,890
 +
interesting about distance and that is
 +
 +
297
 +
00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:38,140
 +
if here's that this is a two dimensional
 +
 +
298
 +
00:14:34,890 --> 00:14:41,680
 +
space we have a two dimensional distance
 +
 +
299
 +
00:14:38,140 --> 00:14:44,200
 +
but what's incredible about distance is
 +
 +
300
 +
00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:48,520
 +
if you give me one more dimension I can
 +
 +
301
 +
00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:49,990
 +
get rid of the distance right just one
 +
 +
302
 +
00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:51,700
 +
more dimension than the dimension of my
 +
 +
303
 +
00:14:49,990 --> 00:14:53,500
 +
information and I can get all of the
 +
 +
304
 +
00:14:51,700 --> 00:14:57,160
 +
intervention interesting information in
 +
 +
305
 +
00:14:53,500 --> 00:15:01,110
 +
the same place in hyperspace and I can
 +
 +
306
 +
00:14:57,160 --> 00:15:01,110
 +
do it for any number of them
 +
 +
307
 +
00:15:01,230 --> 00:15:05,650
 +
that's what Engelbart did so he was the
 +
 +
308
 +
00:15:04,390 --> 00:15:08,470
 +
guy who invented what we now call
 +
 +
309
 +
00:15:05,650 --> 00:15:10,780
 +
hypertext or hyper media he realized
 +
 +
310
 +
00:15:08,470 --> 00:15:13,360
 +
that what people really want is not an
 +
 +
311
 +
00:15:10,780 --> 00:15:16,510
 +
imitation of paper they want something
 +
 +
312
 +
00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:18,610
 +
better they don't want to automate old
 +
 +
313
 +
00:15:16,510 --> 00:15:21,370
 +
things what they need is to take all the
 +
 +
314
 +
00:15:18,610 --> 00:15:23,260
 +
interesting information about a wide
 +
 +
315
 +
00:15:21,370 --> 00:15:25,830
 +
number of things and exits so that all
 +
 +
316
 +
00:15:23,260 --> 00:15:30,600
 +
of those things are in the same place
 +
 +
317
 +
00:15:25,830 --> 00:15:32,890
 +
and Ivan Sutherland around the same time
 +
 +
318
 +
00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:34,480
 +
did something wonderful he was the guy
 +
 +
319
 +
00:15:32,890 --> 00:15:37,720
 +
who invented computer graphics it was
 +
 +
320
 +
00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:39,790
 +
invented around 1962 and again he just
 +
 +
321
 +
00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:42,970
 +
didn't do it to imitate paper to imitate
 +
 +
322
 +
00:15:39,790 --> 00:15:44,800
 +
drafting he looked at and said what else
 +
 +
323
 +
00:15:42,970 --> 00:15:47,440
 +
can it do this is what we should always
 +
 +
324
 +
00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:50,050
 +
ask most important question what else
 +
 +
325
 +
00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:52,450
 +
can it do and what it could do is it
 +
 +
326
 +
00:15:50,050 --> 00:15:55,450
 +
could simulate things so on this thing
 +
 +
327
 +
00:15:52,450 --> 00:15:57,010
 +
this picture taken in 1962 Sutherland is
 +
 +
328
 +
00:15:55,450 --> 00:15:59,490
 +
sitting in front of a bridge that he's
 +
 +
329
 +
00:15:57,010 --> 00:16:02,500
 +
drawn and sketchpad and that bridge is
 +
 +
330
 +
00:15:59,490 --> 00:16:04,270
 +
dynamically sustaining a weight and
 +
 +
331
 +
00:16:02,500 --> 00:16:06,940
 +
showing him what the stresses and
 +
 +
332
 +
00:16:04,270 --> 00:16:09,850
 +
strains on the bridge are so here are
 +
 +
333
 +
00:16:06,940 --> 00:16:13,690
 +
three completely different metaphors for
 +
 +
334
 +
00:16:09,850 --> 00:16:15,970
 +
computing I think you'll agree that the
 +
 +
335
 +
00:16:13,690 --> 00:16:17,640
 +
dominant metaphor today is still the
 +
 +
336
 +
00:16:15,970 --> 00:16:21,430
 +
Universal Factory
 +
 +
337
 +
00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:23,640
 +
American business by and large uses
 +
 +
338
 +
00:16:21,430 --> 00:16:28,660
 +
computers to automate accounting I'm
 +
 +
339
 +
00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:30,390
 +
sure that Wells Fargo does really do
 +
 +
340
 +
00:16:28,660 --> 00:16:34,360
 +
they think of it as a vehicle for
 +
 +
341
 +
00:16:30,390 --> 00:16:34,810
 +
traversing hyperspace where all of the
 +
 +
342
 +
00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:36,580
 +
stuff
 +
 +
343
 +
00:16:34,810 --> 00:16:38,830
 +
of interest to you should be available
 +
 +
344
 +
00:16:36,580 --> 00:16:41,380
 +
dynamically and rarely do they think of
 +
 +
345
 +
00:16:38,830 --> 00:16:44,050
 +
it as a simulator for being able to deal
 +
 +
346
 +
00:16:41,380 --> 00:16:45,580
 +
with very complex problems and try and
 +
 +
347
 +
00:16:44,050 --> 00:16:49,810
 +
understand what happens next
 +
 +
348
 +
00:16:45,580 --> 00:16:51,310
 +
now individuals do about 70% of the use
 +
 +
349
 +
00:16:49,810 --> 00:16:56,860
 +
of spreadsheets on personal computers
 +
 +
350
 +
00:16:51,310 --> 00:16:59,850
 +
our what-ifs but IT organizations almost
 +
 +
351
 +
00:16:56,860 --> 00:17:05,650
 +
never do IT organizations run
 +
 +
352
 +
00:16:59,850 --> 00:17:07,030
 +
post-mortems on already in bomb de right
 +
 +
353
 +
00:17:05,650 --> 00:17:09,760
 +
by the time they get around to writing
 +
 +
354
 +
00:17:07,030 --> 00:17:12,430
 +
an application which is usually 18
 +
 +
355
 +
00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:14,939
 +
months after it was requested the
 +
 +
356
 +
00:17:12,430 --> 00:17:18,310
 +
information is not of interest anymore
 +
 +
357
 +
00:17:14,939 --> 00:17:20,050
 +
so the metaphor that we pick for
 +
 +
358
 +
00:17:18,310 --> 00:17:24,730
 +
thinking about what computing is is very
 +
 +
359
 +
00:17:20,050 --> 00:17:27,610
 +
very critical now I started thinking
 +
 +
360
 +
00:17:24,730 --> 00:17:29,440
 +
about I started in 1961 and I started
 +
 +
361
 +
00:17:27,610 --> 00:17:31,720
 +
thinking about this stuff and it I was
 +
 +
362
 +
00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:36,790
 +
very intrigued with angle Bart's stuff
 +
 +
363
 +
00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:39,490
 +
and in 1967 I built this machine in the
 +
 +
364
 +
00:17:36,790 --> 00:17:41,679
 +
center the top Center there it was
 +
 +
365
 +
00:17:39,490 --> 00:17:43,570
 +
called the Flex machine so it looks like
 +
 +
366
 +
00:17:41,679 --> 00:17:46,150
 +
a personal computer of today it was a
 +
 +
367
 +
00:17:43,570 --> 00:17:48,670
 +
personal computer was a desktop computer
 +
 +
368
 +
00:17:46,150 --> 00:17:52,090
 +
for very special deaths namely those
 +
 +
369
 +
00:17:48,670 --> 00:17:53,940
 +
made out of steel so weighed about 400
 +
 +
370
 +
00:17:52,090 --> 00:17:57,060
 +
pounds
 +
 +
371
 +
00:17:53,940 --> 00:18:01,470
 +
and had a had a fan that was likened to
 +
 +
372
 +
00:17:57,060 --> 00:18:04,110
 +
a 747 taking off C in those days the
 +
 +
373
 +
00:18:01,470 --> 00:18:05,520
 +
integrated circuit packages integrated
 +
 +
374
 +
00:18:04,110 --> 00:18:08,760
 +
circuits were very very small they only
 +
 +
375
 +
00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:10,920
 +
had about 16 or 32 gates on them and so
 +
 +
376
 +
00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:13,290
 +
this machine which was quite weak by
 +
 +
377
 +
00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:16,650
 +
today's standards had more than 700 of
 +
 +
378
 +
00:18:13,290 --> 00:18:20,100
 +
those little black boxes in it and so it
 +
 +
379
 +
00:18:16,650 --> 00:18:22,050
 +
generated a lot of heat and then I
 +
 +
380
 +
00:18:20,100 --> 00:18:25,710
 +
happened to see some of seymour papert's
 +
 +
381
 +
00:18:22,050 --> 00:18:27,510
 +
early work with logo and it got me
 +
 +
382
 +
00:18:25,710 --> 00:18:29,600
 +
thinking all of a sudden that computers
 +
 +
383
 +
00:18:27,510 --> 00:18:32,910
 +
were not Veals
 +
 +
384
 +
00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:34,560
 +
computers were like media they were like
 +
 +
385
 +
00:18:32,910 --> 00:18:40,890
 +
media and I suddenly remembered
 +
 +
386
 +
00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:42,270
 +
something quite striking I don't know
 +
 +
387
 +
00:18:40,890 --> 00:18:45,270
 +
how many people here have ever been in a
 +
 +
388
 +
00:18:42,270 --> 00:18:48,450
 +
medieval library there's one still set
 +
 +
389
 +
00:18:45,270 --> 00:18:50,430
 +
up in Florence and what they look like
 +
 +
390
 +
00:18:48,450 --> 00:18:54,210
 +
is there a room about four times this
 +
 +
391
 +
00:18:50,430 --> 00:18:55,770
 +
size there are no shelves why because
 +
 +
392
 +
00:18:54,210 --> 00:18:58,380
 +
most libraries had less than a hundred
 +
 +
393
 +
00:18:55,770 --> 00:19:02,370
 +
books one of the largest libraries in
 +
 +
394
 +
00:18:58,380 --> 00:19:06,570
 +
Europe the Vatican Library in the year
 +
 +
395
 +
00:19:02,370 --> 00:19:09,720
 +
1400 only had 392 books each Brook took
 +
 +
396
 +
00:19:06,570 --> 00:19:13,140
 +
about 10 to 15 years to copy by a group
 +
 +
397
 +
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:14,910
 +
of group of monks so when he went into a
 +
 +
398
 +
00:19:13,140 --> 00:19:19,800
 +
medieval library what you saw were
 +
 +
399
 +
00:19:14,910 --> 00:19:25,110
 +
tables reading areas each book was
 +
 +
400
 +
00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:27,050
 +
chained to the table table after table
 +
 +
401
 +
00:19:25,110 --> 00:19:29,370
 +
after table about a hundred of them and
 +
 +
402
 +
00:19:27,050 --> 00:19:32,480
 +
so they it flashed into my mind that
 +
 +
403
 +
00:19:29,370 --> 00:19:35,340
 +
looks just like a time-sharing bullpen
 +
 +
404
 +
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:38,790
 +
right time sharing terminals using
 +
 +
405
 +
00:19:35,340 --> 00:19:40,730
 +
something so expensive only an
 +
 +
406
 +
00:19:38,790 --> 00:19:42,720
 +
institution could own it
 +
 +
407
 +
00:19:40,730 --> 00:19:47,730
 +
individuals accept that unless they were
 +
 +
408
 +
00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:51,630
 +
kings couldn't own this stuff and then I
 +
 +
409
 +
00:19:47,730 --> 00:19:54,870
 +
flashed to Gutenberg's Bible which was
 +
 +
410
 +
00:19:51,630 --> 00:19:57,660
 +
printed but it was printed in imitation
 +
 +
411
 +
00:19:54,870 --> 00:19:59,400
 +
of this stuff and I suddenly looked at
 +
 +
412
 +
00:19:57,660 --> 00:20:00,780
 +
the Flex machine and said you know that
 +
 +
413
 +
00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:05,700
 +
thing looks just like a time-sharing
 +
 +
414
 +
00:20:00,780 --> 00:20:06,809
 +
terminal is this am I just imitating the
 +
 +
415
 +
00:20:05,700 --> 00:20:09,929
 +
past
 +
 +
416
 +
00:20:06,809 --> 00:20:11,789
 +
what is this thing by the way Guttenberg
 +
 +
417
 +
00:20:09,929 --> 00:20:15,990
 +
buy it the first Gutenberg Bibles were
 +
 +
418
 +
00:20:11,789 --> 00:20:19,200
 +
incredibly cheap costs only two years of
 +
 +
419
 +
00:20:15,990 --> 00:20:21,210
 +
a clerks wages to buy one it was about
 +
 +
420
 +
00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:24,960
 +
sixty thousand dollars today and if you
 +
 +
421
 +
00:20:21,210 --> 00:20:28,559
 +
think of that if you think of that as
 +
 +
422
 +
00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:30,179
 +
about what a workstation costs expensive
 +
 +
423
 +
00:20:28,559 --> 00:20:31,499
 +
workstation costs compared to the
 +
 +
424
 +
00:20:30,179 --> 00:20:33,960
 +
millions of dollars from one of these
 +
 +
425
 +
00:20:31,499 --> 00:20:37,200
 +
things it is rather cheap but what
 +
 +
426
 +
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:38,610
 +
flashes of my mind then was the turning
 +
 +
427
 +
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:41,700
 +
point in the development of the book
 +
 +
428
 +
00:20:38,610 --> 00:20:44,669
 +
which was this third stage and that was
 +
 +
429
 +
00:20:41,700 --> 00:20:48,749
 +
done by a guy by the name of Aldous not
 +
 +
430
 +
00:20:44,669 --> 00:20:50,519
 +
Elvis PageMaker that could have been his
 +
 +
431
 +
00:20:48,749 --> 00:20:53,129
 +
name because he was a printer in Venice
 +
 +
432
 +
00:20:50,519 --> 00:20:58,019
 +
that's where the company got their name
 +
 +
433
 +
00:20:53,129 --> 00:20:59,929
 +
Aldus Manutius around 1495 decided books
 +
 +
434
 +
00:20:58,019 --> 00:21:02,580
 +
should not be like this
 +
 +
435
 +
00:20:59,929 --> 00:21:07,200
 +
so the Gutenberg galaxy I mean the
 +
 +
436
 +
00:21:02,580 --> 00:21:08,970
 +
Gutenberg Bible and manuscripts but he
 +
 +
437
 +
00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:13,470
 +
decided that book should be the size
 +
 +
438
 +
00:21:08,970 --> 00:21:16,350
 +
they are today you've ever wondered why
 +
 +
439
 +
00:21:13,470 --> 00:21:18,389
 +
books are the size they are today it
 +
 +
440
 +
00:21:16,350 --> 00:21:22,799
 +
could be any size it could be really
 +
 +
441
 +
00:21:18,389 --> 00:21:24,720
 +
small it could be big this size I'll
 +
 +
442
 +
00:21:22,799 --> 00:21:29,070
 +
tell you why because that is the size
 +
 +
443
 +
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:31,080
 +
that saddlebags were in Venice Aldous
 +
 +
444
 +
00:21:29,070 --> 00:21:33,049
 +
went out and measured saddlebags and
 +
 +
445
 +
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:35,399
 +
took the average saddlebag size and
 +
 +
446
 +
00:21:33,049 --> 00:21:39,389
 +
decided to print a library or she called
 +
 +
447
 +
00:21:35,399 --> 00:21:40,950
 +
the portable library in 1495 so that
 +
 +
448
 +
00:21:39,389 --> 00:21:43,889
 +
people could take them with now this is
 +
 +
449
 +
00:21:40,950 --> 00:21:45,840
 +
a profound idea because Elvis was the
 +
 +
450
 +
00:21:43,889 --> 00:21:48,720
 +
first person who really realized that
 +
 +
451
 +
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:52,559
 +
books were now something that could be
 +
 +
452
 +
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:54,149
 +
lost it was not a crime against humanity
 +
 +
453
 +
00:21:52,559 --> 00:21:58,940
 +
to lose a book because he could go buy
 +
 +
454
 +
00:21:54,149 --> 00:22:01,919
 +
another one okay so that happened around
 +
 +
455
 +
00:21:58,940 --> 00:22:05,179
 +
1495 and suddenly I suddenly realized
 +
 +
456
 +
00:22:01,919 --> 00:22:08,299
 +
that a computer should look like this
 +
 +
457
 +
00:22:05,179 --> 00:22:10,470
 +
should be something the size of a book
 +
 +
458
 +
00:22:08,299 --> 00:22:14,970
 +
should be something that you always have
 +
 +
459
 +
00:22:10,470 --> 00:22:18,450
 +
with you and I made that cardboard model
 +
 +
460
 +
00:22:14,970 --> 00:22:20,770
 +
in 1968 that's what a computer should
 +
 +
461
 +
00:22:18,450 --> 00:22:23,200
 +
look like now just to give you an idea
 +
 +
462
 +
00:22:20,770 --> 00:22:26,710
 +
to try and understand why the the
 +
 +
463
 +
00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:31,090
 +
situation we're in today here is a
 +
 +
464
 +
00:22:26,710 --> 00:22:36,370
 +
completely transitional one this is a
 +
 +
465
 +
00:22:31,090 --> 00:22:39,850
 +
much Stabler form than this one you have
 +
 +
466
 +
00:22:36,370 --> 00:22:44,710
 +
to realize that remember printing was
 +
 +
467
 +
00:22:39,850 --> 00:22:51,460
 +
invented around 1450 to 1450 for Aldous
 +
 +
468
 +
00:22:44,710 --> 00:22:52,660
 +
was 1495 wasn't until 1516 more than 60
 +
 +
469
 +
00:22:51,460 --> 00:22:54,700
 +
years after the printing press was
 +
 +
470
 +
00:22:52,660 --> 00:23:00,030
 +
invented that anybody thought to put
 +
 +
471
 +
00:22:54,700 --> 00:23:02,740
 +
page numbers on a book think about that
 +
 +
472
 +
00:23:00,030 --> 00:23:06,640
 +
how could they have meant notice Elvises
 +
 +
473
 +
00:23:02,740 --> 00:23:08,680
 +
Brooke here has no page numbers how
 +
 +
474
 +
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,940
 +
could they possibly not have done the
 +
 +
475
 +
00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:12,310
 +
reason was is that when you only have
 +
 +
476
 +
00:23:09,940 --> 00:23:14,200
 +
392 books in the world's largest library
 +
 +
477
 +
00:23:12,310 --> 00:23:18,370
 +
and it if you're really rich and you may
 +
 +
478
 +
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:20,080
 +
have at home five or ten books why have
 +
 +
479
 +
00:23:18,370 --> 00:23:21,760
 +
page numbers you know where everything
 +
 +
480
 +
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:25,240
 +
is books are a celebration of what you
 +
 +
481
 +
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:27,640
 +
already know so when we think about
 +
 +
482
 +
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:29,740
 +
computers today one of the things we
 +
 +
483
 +
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:32,560
 +
have to really understand is that we are
 +
 +
484
 +
00:23:29,740 --> 00:23:35,800
 +
in a transitional phase and that the use
 +
 +
485
 +
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:38,230
 +
of computers by humans is going to be
 +
 +
486
 +
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:40,300
 +
completely different than it is today
 +
 +
487
 +
00:23:38,230 --> 00:23:42,510
 +
just as the use today is completely
 +
 +
488
 +
00:23:40,300 --> 00:23:45,310
 +
different from what it was 20 years ago
 +
 +
489
 +
00:23:42,510 --> 00:23:47,860
 +
that's the importance of making sharp
 +
 +
490
 +
00:23:45,310 --> 00:23:51,670
 +
boundaries between these different ways
 +
 +
491
 +
00:23:47,860 --> 00:23:53,140
 +
of thinking about things now this all
 +
 +
492
 +
00:23:51,670 --> 00:23:57,310
 +
would have been fantasy and science
 +
 +
493
 +
00:23:53,140 --> 00:24:00,630
 +
fiction except for people like Gordon
 +
 +
494
 +
00:23:57,310 --> 00:24:06,730
 +
Moore Gordon Moore was a physicist in
 +
 +
495
 +
00:24:00,630 --> 00:24:11,110
 +
1965 he published the white part of this
 +
 +
496
 +
00:24:06,730 --> 00:24:12,670
 +
diagram which said you know from 1959
 +
 +
497
 +
00:24:11,110 --> 00:24:18,910
 +
whoops sorry
 +
 +
498
 +
00:24:12,670 --> 00:24:20,260
 +
from 1959 up to about 1965 things have
 +
 +
499
 +
00:24:18,910 --> 00:24:22,750
 +
been improving at about the rate of
 +
 +
500
 +
00:24:20,260 --> 00:24:25,840
 +
factor of two every year in integrated
 +
 +
501
 +
00:24:22,750 --> 00:24:27,460
 +
circuits he said I wonder if that can
 +
 +
502
 +
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:30,460
 +
continue so he started looking at the
 +
 +
503
 +
00:24:27,460 --> 00:24:32,060
 +
physics of integrated circuits that gave
 +
 +
504
 +
00:24:30,460 --> 00:24:34,220
 +
him this line
 +
 +
505
 +
00:24:32,060 --> 00:24:36,710
 +
a few years later he said this line is
 +
 +
506
 +
00:24:34,220 --> 00:24:38,900
 +
too ambitious I'll predict that it will
 +
 +
507
 +
00:24:36,710 --> 00:24:41,930
 +
grow by a factor of two every two years
 +
 +
508
 +
00:24:38,900 --> 00:24:45,560
 +
which gave him this line and just for
 +
 +
509
 +
00:24:41,930 --> 00:24:48,470
 +
your enjoyment here the purple line is
 +
 +
510
 +
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:50,210
 +
what actually happened right so it's
 +
 +
511
 +
00:24:48,470 --> 00:24:52,660
 +
grown slightly better it's grown about a
 +
 +
512
 +
00:24:50,210 --> 00:24:56,300
 +
factor of two every eighteen months
 +
 +
513
 +
00:24:52,660 --> 00:25:02,570
 +
since 1965 and Gordon Moore's prediction
 +
 +
514
 +
00:24:56,300 --> 00:25:04,520
 +
was a 30-year prediction now in order to
 +
 +
515
 +
00:25:02,570 --> 00:25:06,860
 +
make this prediction he had to back away
 +
 +
516
 +
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:11,860
 +
he had to do remember my diagram he had
 +
 +
517
 +
00:25:06,860 --> 00:25:14,090
 +
to go away from B because the silicon
 +
 +
518
 +
00:25:11,860 --> 00:25:18,050
 +
that people were using was not a
 +
 +
519
 +
00:25:14,090 --> 00:25:19,400
 +
predictable silicon it was not easy to
 +
 +
520
 +
00:25:18,050 --> 00:25:20,930
 +
make predictions about it so he picked a
 +
 +
521
 +
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:23,600
 +
simpler way of doing things which is
 +
 +
522
 +
00:25:20,930 --> 00:25:25,910
 +
thought to be too slow and made his
 +
 +
523
 +
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:27,980
 +
predictions based on that that slow
 +
 +
524
 +
00:25:25,910 --> 00:25:36,920
 +
silicon happens to be a silicon we used
 +
 +
525
 +
00:25:27,980 --> 00:25:39,920
 +
today MOS silicon this single chart if
 +
 +
526
 +
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:42,860
 +
well understood explains why IBM and Dec
 +
 +
527
 +
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:44,750
 +
are in such trouble today explains why
 +
 +
528
 +
00:25:42,860 --> 00:25:47,360
 +
we have millions and millions of
 +
 +
529
 +
00:25:44,750 --> 00:25:49,160
 +
personal computers today it explains why
 +
 +
530
 +
00:25:47,360 --> 00:25:51,500
 +
people were not able to predict the
 +
 +
531
 +
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:53,180
 +
future in a reasonable way because this
 +
 +
532
 +
00:25:51,500 --> 00:25:56,920
 +
is an exponential curve this is talking
 +
 +
533
 +
00:25:53,180 --> 00:26:01,550
 +
about a factor of 10 million change in
 +
 +
534
 +
00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:06,020
 +
20 years so almost everything that we're
 +
 +
535
 +
00:26:01,550 --> 00:26:07,490
 +
doing today is based on this now the
 +
 +
536
 +
00:26:06,020 --> 00:26:10,760
 +
thing is you have to realize about the
 +
 +
537
 +
00:26:07,490 --> 00:26:13,840
 +
human nervous system is that factors of
 +
 +
538
 +
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:17,260
 +
10 and factors of a hundred change our
 +
 +
539
 +
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:20,780
 +
qualitative to us they may look on paper
 +
 +
540
 +
00:26:17,260 --> 00:26:23,900
 +
quantitative but a factor of 10 change
 +
 +
541
 +
00:26:20,780 --> 00:26:26,180
 +
in speed is qualitative to us what
 +
 +
542
 +
00:26:23,900 --> 00:26:29,360
 +
happened to IBM because they were aware
 +
 +
543
 +
00:26:26,180 --> 00:26:32,210
 +
of this is they couldn't believe that
 +
 +
544
 +
00:26:29,360 --> 00:26:33,890
 +
this meant anything other than they
 +
 +
545
 +
00:26:32,210 --> 00:26:36,350
 +
would be able to make cheaper mainframes
 +
 +
546
 +
00:26:33,890 --> 00:26:39,620
 +
and make more profit on them they could
 +
 +
547
 +
00:26:36,350 --> 00:26:41,660
 +
not imagine the actual implications of
 +
 +
548
 +
00:26:39,620 --> 00:26:44,150
 +
being able to put an entire computer on
 +
 +
549
 +
00:26:41,660 --> 00:26:45,470
 +
a chip and that there would have to be
 +
 +
550
 +
00:26:44,150 --> 00:26:49,940
 +
millions of them
 +
 +
551
 +
00:26:45,470 --> 00:26:51,470
 +
so they lost they missed so these three
 +
 +
552
 +
00:26:49,940 --> 00:26:53,990
 +
ways of looking at things
 +
 +
553
 +
00:26:51,470 --> 00:26:55,850
 +
I gave names to I called the mainframe
 +
 +
554
 +
00:26:53,990 --> 00:26:58,159
 +
thing institutional computing I called
 +
 +
555
 +
00:26:55,850 --> 00:27:01,460
 +
the desktop machine personal computing
 +
 +
556
 +
00:26:58,159 --> 00:27:06,740
 +
and I called this handheld Aldus type
 +
 +
557
 +
00:27:01,460 --> 00:27:09,470
 +
computer an intimate computer and in the
 +
 +
558
 +
00:27:06,740 --> 00:27:12,679
 +
late 60s I sat down and tried to write
 +
 +
559
 +
00:27:09,470 --> 00:27:15,649
 +
down some of the conclusions that a
 +
 +
560
 +
00:27:12,679 --> 00:27:18,049
 +
person would reach for in each of these
 +
 +
561
 +
00:27:15,649 --> 00:27:19,909
 +
belief structures now another word
 +
 +
562
 +
00:27:18,049 --> 00:27:25,580
 +
that's been devalued almost beyond
 +
 +
563
 +
00:27:19,909 --> 00:27:28,220
 +
repair is paradigm right paradigm is a
 +
 +
564
 +
00:27:25,580 --> 00:27:30,230
 +
belief structure so you could just as
 +
 +
565
 +
00:27:28,220 --> 00:27:31,929
 +
easily say this is the institutional
 +
 +
566
 +
00:27:30,230 --> 00:27:35,830
 +
paradigm the personal computing paradigm
 +
 +
567
 +
00:27:31,929 --> 00:27:39,919
 +
or the intimate paradigm doesn't matter
 +
 +
568
 +
00:27:35,830 --> 00:27:41,600
 +
scientists like paradigms because it is
 +
 +
569
 +
00:27:39,919 --> 00:27:44,330
 +
so hard to think about things that
 +
 +
570
 +
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:46,519
 +
aren't already around so we play all
 +
 +
571
 +
00:27:44,330 --> 00:27:47,779
 +
kinds of tricks and mind games and one
 +
 +
572
 +
00:27:46,519 --> 00:27:50,029
 +
of the ones that we do is to drive
 +
 +
573
 +
00:27:47,779 --> 00:27:52,639
 +
artificial boundaries between things to
 +
 +
574
 +
00:27:50,029 --> 00:27:55,100
 +
see if we can find differentiation so
 +
 +
575
 +
00:27:52,639 --> 00:27:56,360
 +
this is one of those things saying these
 +
 +
576
 +
00:27:55,100 --> 00:27:57,590
 +
are three different ways of thinking
 +
 +
577
 +
00:27:56,360 --> 00:28:03,340
 +
about the world and what are the
 +
 +
578
 +
00:27:57,590 --> 00:28:06,340
 +
implications whoops sorry about that
 +
 +
579
 +
00:28:03,340 --> 00:28:06,340
 +
the
 +
 +
580
 +
00:28:08,559 --> 00:28:12,919
 +
now what types one of the ways of
 +
 +
581
 +
00:28:11,270 --> 00:28:15,950
 +
thinking about it is what types of data
 +
 +
582
 +
00:28:12,919 --> 00:28:18,200
 +
do you use institutional uses letters
 +
 +
583
 +
00:28:15,950 --> 00:28:20,000
 +
and numbers I discovered just a few
 +
 +
584
 +
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:21,940
 +
years ago that my Dennis still had those
 +
 +
585
 +
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:26,090
 +
green and white print out sheets
 +
 +
586
 +
00:28:21,940 --> 00:28:27,710
 +
needless to say I changed Dennis so I
 +
 +
587
 +
00:28:26,090 --> 00:28:33,770
 +
was wondering what other old technology
 +
 +
588
 +
00:28:27,710 --> 00:28:35,150
 +
he might be using there's law by the way
 +
 +
589
 +
00:28:33,770 --> 00:28:39,679
 +
does anybody know who toward more is
 +
 +
590
 +
00:28:35,150 --> 00:28:40,660
 +
here who is Gordon Moore who did Moore's
 +
 +
591
 +
00:28:39,679 --> 00:28:45,799
 +
law
 +
 +
592
 +
00:28:40,660 --> 00:28:49,040
 +
yeah so Moore got a lot of criticism for
 +
 +
593
 +
00:28:45,799 --> 00:28:50,360
 +
that curve and so he decided to do this
 +
 +
594
 +
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,400
 +
thing well the best way to predict the
 +
 +
595
 +
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:54,620
 +
future is to invent it so he said let's
 +
 +
596
 +
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:56,780
 +
found a company to work on MOS silicon
 +
 +
597
 +
00:28:54,620 --> 00:28:59,390
 +
happened to be Intel he's one of the
 +
 +
598
 +
00:28:56,780 --> 00:29:01,090
 +
richest guys in California right now
 +
 +
599
 +
00:28:59,390 --> 00:29:04,400
 +
he's worth more than a billion dollars
 +
 +
600
 +
00:29:01,090 --> 00:29:05,870
 +
from that because of course see when the
 +
 +
601
 +
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:06,980
 +
astronauts got out in space and they
 +
 +
602
 +
00:29:05,870 --> 00:29:09,200
 +
look back at the earth you know what
 +
 +
603
 +
00:29:06,980 --> 00:29:11,720
 +
they saw they saw something that looked
 +
 +
604
 +
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:14,900
 +
just like a globe that had been done in
 +
 +
605
 +
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:16,030
 +
the 19th century that's what science is
 +
 +
606
 +
00:29:14,900 --> 00:29:20,299
 +
all about
 +
 +
607
 +
00:29:16,030 --> 00:29:21,740
 +
no surprises you get out there and if
 +
 +
608
 +
00:29:20,299 --> 00:29:25,400
 +
you've done your work properly you
 +
 +
609
 +
00:29:21,740 --> 00:29:27,470
 +
should see what you expect to see so
 +
 +
610
 +
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:30,380
 +
Gordon Moore was right and he was able
 +
 +
611
 +
00:29:27,470 --> 00:29:32,290
 +
to get profit from it and if you think
 +
 +
612
 +
00:29:30,380 --> 00:29:34,940
 +
about the implications of Moore's law
 +
 +
613
 +
00:29:32,290 --> 00:29:37,309
 +
you're going to start using bitmap
 +
 +
614
 +
00:29:34,940 --> 00:29:38,510
 +
screens it's one of the first things we
 +
 +
615
 +
00:29:37,309 --> 00:29:41,690
 +
invented at Xerox PARC
 +
 +
616
 +
00:29:38,510 --> 00:29:44,390
 +
because now we could have bits bits
 +
 +
617
 +
00:29:41,690 --> 00:29:47,600
 +
weren't just for computation anymore and
 +
 +
618
 +
00:29:44,390 --> 00:29:51,530
 +
then later on all other media was going
 +
 +
619
 +
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:53,240
 +
to have to come along and one of the
 +
 +
620
 +
00:29:51,530 --> 00:29:56,660
 +
implications of this is that when you
 +
 +
621
 +
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:59,870
 +
get into this third stage you're not
 +
 +
622
 +
00:29:56,660 --> 00:30:01,100
 +
going to print printing will go away now
 +
 +
623
 +
00:29:59,870 --> 00:30:03,679
 +
people have been saying that for years
 +
 +
624
 +
00:30:01,100 --> 00:30:07,820
 +
and we have more paper than yes yes I
 +
 +
625
 +
00:30:03,679 --> 00:30:10,910
 +
know but think of it this way when your
 +
 +
626
 +
00:30:07,820 --> 00:30:12,530
 +
information is related in such a way
 +
 +
627
 +
00:30:10,910 --> 00:30:16,640
 +
that all important things are together
 +
 +
628
 +
00:30:12,530 --> 00:30:18,290
 +
you're not going to print it out how
 +
 +
629
 +
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:20,230
 +
many people here do forecasting by
 +
 +
630
 +
00:30:18,290 --> 00:30:22,820
 +
spreadsheets
 +
 +
631
 +
00:30:20,230 --> 00:30:27,010
 +
okay who does anybody print out the
 +
 +
632
 +
00:30:22,820 --> 00:30:29,750
 +
spreadsheet template no you know why
 +
 +
633
 +
00:30:27,010 --> 00:30:30,890
 +
because what ones you're going to print
 +
 +
634
 +
00:30:29,750 --> 00:30:34,100
 +
out you're going to print out a hundred
 +
 +
635
 +
00:30:30,890 --> 00:30:35,510
 +
of them every one of those things you've
 +
 +
636
 +
00:30:34,100 --> 00:30:38,690
 +
done you change a number and the whole
 +
 +
637
 +
00:30:35,510 --> 00:30:41,410
 +
spreadsheet changes so the multi is to
 +
 +
638
 +
00:30:38,690 --> 00:30:45,170
 +
think about in multimedia are not
 +
 +
639
 +
00:30:41,410 --> 00:30:48,790
 +
combining voice and images the multi is
 +
 +
640
 +
00:30:45,170 --> 00:30:52,730
 +
to think about our multi-dimensional and
 +
 +
641
 +
00:30:48,790 --> 00:30:54,500
 +
multi process so as we go more and more
 +
 +
642
 +
00:30:52,730 --> 00:30:59,510
 +
towards multiply multi dimensional
 +
 +
643
 +
00:30:54,500 --> 00:31:04,310
 +
representations and simulations printing
 +
 +
644
 +
00:30:59,510 --> 00:31:07,970
 +
will kill both of those things and what
 +
 +
645
 +
00:31:04,310 --> 00:31:10,280
 +
we have now is synthetic paper that
 +
 +
646
 +
00:31:07,970 --> 00:31:11,720
 +
comes along just in the nick of time to
 +
 +
647
 +
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:14,120
 +
save us we can now have all of our
 +
 +
648
 +
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:17,510
 +
dynamic information structures with us
 +
 +
649
 +
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:22,460
 +
at all times so printing is finally
 +
 +
650
 +
00:31:17,510 --> 00:31:25,430
 +
going to go away by my friend Nicolas
 +
 +
651
 +
00:31:22,460 --> 00:31:27,320
 +
Monte thought of it this way thought of
 +
 +
652
 +
00:31:25,430 --> 00:31:30,620
 +
the worlds of publishing entertainment
 +
 +
653
 +
00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:32,540
 +
and computing imploding on each other
 +
 +
654
 +
00:31:30,620 --> 00:31:33,650
 +
because now every single one of them
 +
 +
655
 +
00:31:32,540 --> 00:31:35,030
 +
could have everything that they do
 +
 +
656
 +
00:31:33,650 --> 00:31:36,950
 +
represent it digitally
 +
 +
657
 +
00:31:35,030 --> 00:31:38,960
 +
when you have everything represented in
 +
 +
658
 +
00:31:36,950 --> 00:31:42,230
 +
the same form you basically have the
 +
 +
659
 +
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:45,950
 +
same business they use the same
 +
 +
660
 +
00:31:42,230 --> 00:31:49,310
 +
transmission everybody who has access to
 +
 +
661
 +
00:31:45,950 --> 00:31:52,030
 +
the Internet is a publisher you can
 +
 +
662
 +
00:31:49,310 --> 00:31:55,160
 +
publish just as well as mcgraw-hill can
 +
 +
663
 +
00:31:52,030 --> 00:31:56,870
 +
in fact your if you have access to the
 +
 +
664
 +
00:31:55,160 --> 00:32:00,770
 +
Internet you are actually a miniature
 +
 +
665
 +
00:31:56,870 --> 00:32:02,720
 +
FCC I don't know whether you know it but
 +
 +
666
 +
00:32:00,770 --> 00:32:05,360
 +
people send television programs back and
 +
 +
667
 +
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:08,030
 +
forth on the on the internet and radio
 +
 +
668
 +
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:12,140
 +
there's a constant internet radio
 +
 +
669
 +
00:32:08,030 --> 00:32:14,360
 +
between scientists and stuff and there
 +
 +
670
 +
00:32:12,140 --> 00:32:17,480
 +
are no channels were requested from the
 +
 +
671
 +
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:19,220
 +
FCC because the internet does not care
 +
 +
672
 +
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:21,830
 +
it's just sending bits back and forth
 +
 +
673
 +
00:32:19,220 --> 00:32:24,950
 +
and the bits can be anything so this is
 +
 +
674
 +
00:32:21,830 --> 00:32:27,740
 +
one again that the publishers in the
 +
 +
675
 +
00:32:24,950 --> 00:32:30,050
 +
entertainment industry only discovered a
 +
 +
676
 +
00:32:27,740 --> 00:32:32,320
 +
couple of years ago and yet it's been
 +
 +
677
 +
00:32:30,050 --> 00:32:35,139
 +
true once more
 +
 +
678
 +
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:36,759
 +
Wrote is liya this is why this stuff is
 +
 +
679
 +
00:32:35,139 --> 00:32:38,740
 +
scary to people because it seems like
 +
 +
680
 +
00:32:36,759 --> 00:32:40,870
 +
all this stuff is suddenly happening
 +
 +
681
 +
00:32:38,740 --> 00:32:42,909
 +
the reason it's suddenly happening is
 +
 +
682
 +
00:32:40,870 --> 00:32:45,539
 +
people will not believe a disaster until
 +
 +
683
 +
00:32:42,909 --> 00:32:49,870
 +
it's actually in front of their eyes
 +
 +
684
 +
00:32:45,539 --> 00:32:51,580
 +
the whole reason we have eyes is so we
 +
 +
685
 +
00:32:49,870 --> 00:32:54,340
 +
don't have to jump off the cliff to see
 +
 +
686
 +
00:32:51,580 --> 00:32:57,159
 +
if it's dangerous right
 +
 +
687
 +
00:32:54,340 --> 00:32:58,480
 +
we have long distance sensors and we
 +
 +
688
 +
00:32:57,159 --> 00:33:00,279
 +
need the equivalent of long distance
 +
 +
689
 +
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:04,570
 +
sensors when we're dealing with the
 +
 +
690
 +
00:33:00,279 --> 00:33:10,389
 +
future user interface probably the
 +
 +
691
 +
00:33:04,570 --> 00:33:12,490
 +
biggest change when you're over here you
 +
 +
692
 +
00:33:10,389 --> 00:33:14,200
 +
have a few thousand users perhaps using
 +
 +
693
 +
00:33:12,490 --> 00:33:16,240
 +
an airlines reservation system or a
 +
 +
694
 +
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:20,230
 +
banking system you can train a few
 +
 +
695
 +
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:23,860
 +
thousand people there's a factor of a
 +
 +
696
 +
00:33:20,230 --> 00:33:27,990
 +
thousand between these two panels so
 +
 +
697
 +
00:33:23,860 --> 00:33:30,250
 +
millions can't train millions of people
 +
 +
698
 +
00:33:27,990 --> 00:33:32,889
 +
over here there's another factor of a
 +
 +
699
 +
00:33:30,250 --> 00:33:34,960
 +
thousand because this intimate computer
 +
 +
700
 +
00:33:32,889 --> 00:33:37,629
 +
is a lot like a phone in fact it will
 +
 +
701
 +
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:40,570
 +
have a phone in it so these are billions
 +
 +
702
 +
00:33:37,629 --> 00:33:42,639
 +
of people millions of people it put an
 +
 +
703
 +
00:33:40,570 --> 00:33:46,960
 +
enormous pressure on trying to
 +
 +
704
 +
00:33:42,639 --> 00:33:49,600
 +
understand what it would be like to
 +
 +
705
 +
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:51,309
 +
actually get computers to do things and
 +
 +
706
 +
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:53,470
 +
we realized that the big transition
 +
 +
707
 +
00:33:51,309 --> 00:33:56,110
 +
would have to go from being a command
 +
 +
708
 +
00:33:53,470 --> 00:33:57,549
 +
environment like a control panel of a
 +
 +
709
 +
00:33:56,110 --> 00:34:01,389
 +
nuclear reactor that's sort of what a
 +
 +
710
 +
00:33:57,549 --> 00:34:04,360
 +
3270 terminal is like to a learning
 +
 +
711
 +
00:34:01,389 --> 00:34:06,070
 +
environment that's what forced us to
 +
 +
712
 +
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:09,909
 +
invent what is now called the the
 +
 +
713
 +
00:34:06,070 --> 00:34:14,980
 +
Macintosh style interface now what
 +
 +
714
 +
00:34:09,909 --> 00:34:17,079
 +
happens in the future here is something
 +
 +
715
 +
00:34:14,980 --> 00:34:20,230
 +
even more cataclysmic because this third
 +
 +
716
 +
00:34:17,079 --> 00:34:23,619
 +
panel is energized by pervasive
 +
 +
717
 +
00:34:20,230 --> 00:34:27,010
 +
networking think of the driving forces
 +
 +
718
 +
00:34:23,619 --> 00:34:29,950
 +
driving force for mainframe computers
 +
 +
719
 +
00:34:27,010 --> 00:34:31,089
 +
was actually business IBM didn't want to
 +
 +
720
 +
00:34:29,950 --> 00:34:35,109
 +
build them they wanted to stay in the
 +
 +
721
 +
00:34:31,089 --> 00:34:37,149
 +
punch card business was it was American
 +
 +
722
 +
00:34:35,109 --> 00:34:40,599
 +
business that forced IBM to become a big
 +
 +
723
 +
00:34:37,149 --> 00:34:42,490
 +
company driving force for the second
 +
 +
724
 +
00:34:40,599 --> 00:34:44,109
 +
frame was integrated circuits as we've
 +
 +
725
 +
00:34:42,490 --> 00:34:45,369
 +
been talking about in the driving force
 +
 +
726
 +
00:34:44,109 --> 00:34:47,230
 +
for this third
 +
 +
727
 +
00:34:45,369 --> 00:34:50,710
 +
frame is pervasive networking which is
 +
 +
728
 +
00:34:47,230 --> 00:34:52,329
 +
happening to us now this transition is
 +
 +
729
 +
00:34:50,710 --> 00:34:55,690
 +
going to be complete pretty much by the
 +
 +
730
 +
00:34:52,329 --> 00:34:57,160
 +
year 2000 billions of people are going
 +
 +
731
 +
00:34:55,690 --> 00:35:02,079
 +
to have to be there and so one way of
 +
 +
732
 +
00:34:57,160 --> 00:35:06,279
 +
thinking about this is here you have to
 +
 +
733
 +
00:35:02,079 --> 00:35:08,259
 +
train the user in this one the user
 +
 +
734
 +
00:35:06,279 --> 00:35:10,869
 +
interface teaches the user that's its
 +
 +
735
 +
00:35:08,259 --> 00:35:13,690
 +
main job and in this one the user
 +
 +
736
 +
00:35:10,869 --> 00:35:15,339
 +
interface learns from the user in other
 +
 +
737
 +
00:35:13,690 --> 00:35:17,529
 +
words it actively is trying to
 +
 +
738
 +
00:35:15,339 --> 00:35:21,519
 +
understand the user and what it's what
 +
 +
739
 +
00:35:17,529 --> 00:35:23,470
 +
it's trying to do so one way of thinking
 +
 +
740
 +
00:35:21,519 --> 00:35:25,539
 +
about this is the two ways that we've
 +
 +
741
 +
00:35:23,470 --> 00:35:29,170
 +
had of amplifying our reach have been
 +
 +
742
 +
00:35:25,539 --> 00:35:31,900
 +
tools Macintosh style interface is a
 +
 +
743
 +
00:35:29,170 --> 00:35:34,599
 +
tool based interface it's designed to
 +
 +
744
 +
00:35:31,900 --> 00:35:37,240
 +
work with hand and eye and the other way
 +
 +
745
 +
00:35:34,599 --> 00:35:41,319
 +
we're used to amplifying our reach is
 +
 +
746
 +
00:35:37,240 --> 00:35:44,410
 +
through agents agents are creatures that
 +
 +
747
 +
00:35:41,319 --> 00:35:47,980
 +
can take on our goal structure and carry
 +
 +
748
 +
00:35:44,410 --> 00:35:49,630
 +
out goals in our behalf and what's even
 +
 +
749
 +
00:35:47,980 --> 00:35:53,430
 +
stronger about agencies they can
 +
 +
750
 +
00:35:49,630 --> 00:35:56,980
 +
transmit your goals to other agents
 +
 +
751
 +
00:35:53,430 --> 00:35:59,200
 +
imagine how powerful that is some person
 +
 +
752
 +
00:35:56,980 --> 00:36:01,690
 +
has a few ideas in the middle-east 2000
 +
 +
753
 +
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:04,660
 +
years ago gets 12 agents to be
 +
 +
754
 +
00:36:01,690 --> 00:36:08,680
 +
interested in it and half the half the
 +
 +
755
 +
00:36:04,660 --> 00:36:12,460
 +
earth is now interested in those same
 +
 +
756
 +
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:15,999
 +
ideas that's the power of agents over
 +
 +
757
 +
00:36:12,460 --> 00:36:17,200
 +
tools so one of the big transitions
 +
 +
758
 +
00:36:15,999 --> 00:36:20,230
 +
that's going to happen in the next five
 +
 +
759
 +
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:21,989
 +
years will be the transition from tool
 +
 +
760
 +
00:36:20,230 --> 00:36:28,869
 +
based interfaces which we've just
 +
 +
761
 +
00:36:21,989 --> 00:36:31,599
 +
transitioned into to this softer more
 +
 +
762
 +
00:36:28,869 --> 00:36:34,289
 +
dynamic way of doing things that that
 +
 +
763
 +
00:36:31,599 --> 00:36:37,660
 +
networks are going to force us into
 +
 +
764
 +
00:36:34,289 --> 00:36:43,180
 +
integration of information it's usually
 +
 +
765
 +
00:36:37,660 --> 00:36:45,730
 +
done painfully with files using
 +
 +
766
 +
00:36:43,180 --> 00:36:48,549
 +
relational databases it's it's
 +
 +
767
 +
00:36:45,730 --> 00:36:53,079
 +
incredible to me that after more than 20
 +
 +
768
 +
00:36:48,549 --> 00:36:55,239
 +
years almost 25 years now the less than
 +
 +
769
 +
00:36:53,079 --> 00:36:57,910
 +
half of the databases in America's
 +
 +
770
 +
00:36:55,239 --> 00:37:01,049
 +
fortune 500 companies are relational
 +
 +
771
 +
00:36:57,910 --> 00:37:03,910
 +
I'm sure everybody is aware of that it's
 +
 +
772
 +
00:37:01,049 --> 00:37:08,770
 +
unbelievable most of them are still flat
 +
 +
773
 +
00:37:03,910 --> 00:37:11,319
 +
files and cut and paste in the Macintosh
 +
 +
774
 +
00:37:08,770 --> 00:37:12,789
 +
and then to active components and if we
 +
 +
775
 +
00:37:11,319 --> 00:37:14,890
 +
have time we can talk a little bit more
 +
 +
776
 +
00:37:12,789 --> 00:37:18,400
 +
about that as you go to more and more
 +
 +
777
 +
00:37:14,890 --> 00:37:19,930
 +
complex systems the parts of things have
 +
 +
778
 +
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:24,240
 +
to take more and more of the initiative
 +
 +
779
 +
00:37:19,930 --> 00:37:26,500
 +
for the linking what kind of software
 +
 +
780
 +
00:37:24,240 --> 00:37:28,869
 +
airline reservation system in
 +
 +
781
 +
00:37:26,500 --> 00:37:30,640
 +
institutional generic tool like a
 +
 +
782
 +
00:37:28,869 --> 00:37:33,369
 +
spreadsheet or a word processor or
 +
 +
783
 +
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:35,079
 +
desktop publishing system because you
 +
 +
784
 +
00:37:33,369 --> 00:37:36,970
 +
have millions of people buying them the
 +
 +
785
 +
00:37:35,079 --> 00:37:40,049
 +
users have to complete the application
 +
 +
786
 +
00:37:36,970 --> 00:37:45,539
 +
in order to use it and in the future
 +
 +
787
 +
00:37:40,049 --> 00:37:48,400
 +
most of the applications in business
 +
 +
788
 +
00:37:45,539 --> 00:37:50,890
 +
will be done by the end users now it
 +
 +
789
 +
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:52,480
 +
happens that today in the fortune 500
 +
 +
790
 +
00:37:50,890 --> 00:37:56,020
 +
companies more than half of the
 +
 +
791
 +
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:58,240
 +
applications that are used in Fortune
 +
 +
792
 +
00:37:56,020 --> 00:38:00,690
 +
500 companies today are done by the end
 +
 +
793
 +
00:37:58,240 --> 00:38:04,089
 +
users not by the IT organization
 +
 +
794
 +
00:38:00,690 --> 00:38:07,329
 +
spreadsheets are the big culprit IT
 +
 +
795
 +
00:38:04,089 --> 00:38:09,400
 +
organizations hate them because they are
 +
 +
796
 +
00:38:07,329 --> 00:38:12,309
 +
and personal computers because they have
 +
 +
797
 +
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:14,710
 +
to give up control but in fact there is
 +
 +
798
 +
00:38:12,309 --> 00:38:17,049
 +
a way of leveraging the productivity of
 +
 +
799
 +
00:38:14,710 --> 00:38:21,490
 +
users and we'll talk about that a little
 +
 +
800
 +
00:38:17,049 --> 00:38:23,410
 +
bit later each of these 3 belief systems
 +
 +
801
 +
00:38:21,490 --> 00:38:26,920
 +
has a different way of wanting to be
 +
 +
802
 +
00:38:23,410 --> 00:38:30,039
 +
programmed data structures and
 +
 +
803
 +
00:38:26,920 --> 00:38:30,730
 +
procedures are an extremely weak way of
 +
 +
804
 +
00:38:30,039 --> 00:38:33,910
 +
doing things
 +
 +
805
 +
00:38:30,730 --> 00:38:35,470
 +
this is COBOL and see one of the
 +
 +
806
 +
00:38:33,910 --> 00:38:37,569
 +
problems is if you send a data structure
 +
 +
807
 +
00:38:35,470 --> 00:38:39,760
 +
a thousand miles between point a and
 +
 +
808
 +
00:38:37,569 --> 00:38:42,670
 +
point B you pretty much have to matter
 +
 +
809
 +
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:46,059
 +
transmit a programmer along with it in
 +
 +
810
 +
00:38:42,670 --> 00:38:47,260
 +
order for people to use it the reason is
 +
 +
811
 +
00:38:46,059 --> 00:38:52,029
 +
is that the data structures themselves
 +
 +
812
 +
00:38:47,260 --> 00:38:54,690
 +
are dumb dead things that don't know how
 +
 +
813
 +
00:38:52,029 --> 00:38:57,279
 +
they should be used so objects
 +
 +
814
 +
00:38:54,690 --> 00:38:59,109
 +
particularly at Xerox PARC were invented
 +
 +
815
 +
00:38:57,279 --> 00:39:01,359
 +
so that when you transmit something from
 +
 +
816
 +
00:38:59,109 --> 00:39:03,880
 +
A to B you're also transmitting the
 +
 +
817
 +
00:39:01,359 --> 00:39:06,010
 +
knowledge of how to have how to use it
 +
 +
818
 +
00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:08,430
 +
so the amount of code you have to write
 +
 +
819
 +
00:39:06,010 --> 00:39:10,569
 +
at the other end is very minimal and
 +
 +
820
 +
00:39:08,430 --> 00:39:11,440
 +
networks are going to force a completely
 +
 +
821
 +
00:39:10,569 --> 00:39:12,940
 +
different kind of
 +
 +
822
 +
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:16,650
 +
jamming paradigm that we call agent
 +
 +
823
 +
00:39:12,940 --> 00:39:22,900
 +
oriented just to give you an idea of
 +
 +
824
 +
00:39:16,650 --> 00:39:25,800
 +
this is about maybe 50 years old to go
 +
 +
825
 +
00:39:22,900 --> 00:39:31,720
 +
back to Von Neumanns original design
 +
 +
826
 +
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:37,540
 +
this is about 25 plus years old I did my
 +
 +
827
 +
00:39:31,720 --> 00:39:39,790
 +
first language in 67 this one is more
 +
 +
828
 +
00:39:37,540 --> 00:39:41,980
 +
than ten years old they've never heard
 +
 +
829
 +
00:39:39,790 --> 00:39:44,619
 +
of this stuff but in fact people have
 +
 +
830
 +
00:39:41,980 --> 00:39:46,990
 +
been working away in research labs
 +
 +
831
 +
00:39:44,619 --> 00:39:49,180
 +
because looking ahead we could see that
 +
 +
832
 +
00:39:46,990 --> 00:39:50,980
 +
pervasive network was coming and we
 +
 +
833
 +
00:39:49,180 --> 00:39:52,750
 +
realized that classical objects could
 +
 +
834
 +
00:39:50,980 --> 00:39:55,420
 +
not be transmitted willy-nilly around
 +
 +
835
 +
00:39:52,750 --> 00:39:57,819
 +
the world and be able to be components
 +
 +
836
 +
00:39:55,420 --> 00:39:59,530
 +
of things without a lot of work that
 +
 +
837
 +
00:39:57,819 --> 00:40:01,780
 +
calls for a new way of thinking about
 +
 +
838
 +
00:39:59,530 --> 00:40:05,609
 +
programming and this agent oriented way
 +
 +
839
 +
00:40:01,780 --> 00:40:05,609
 +
is the way we think it will work
 +
 +
840
 +
00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:09,730
 +
analogy to architectures the Greeks were
 +
 +
841
 +
00:40:08,109 --> 00:40:14,740
 +
really smart but they never invented the
 +
 +
842
 +
00:40:09,730 --> 00:40:18,609
 +
arch so they were constrained to build
 +
 +
843
 +
00:40:14,740 --> 00:40:19,750
 +
rather small but beautiful temples if
 +
 +
844
 +
00:40:18,609 --> 00:40:21,460
 +
you want to build something bigger you
 +
 +
845
 +
00:40:19,750 --> 00:40:24,490
 +
have to have a different architectural
 +
 +
846
 +
00:40:21,460 --> 00:40:26,440
 +
principle the Gothic arch allowed
 +
 +
847
 +
00:40:24,490 --> 00:40:28,770
 +
cathedrals to be built that were 10
 +
 +
848
 +
00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:31,030
 +
times the size of the Greek temples
 +
 +
849
 +
00:40:28,770 --> 00:40:33,940
 +
interestingly enough there's only
 +
 +
850
 +
00:40:31,030 --> 00:40:35,140
 +
slightly more material in Chartres
 +
 +
851
 +
00:40:33,940 --> 00:40:36,359
 +
Cathedral than there was in the
 +
 +
852
 +
00:40:35,140 --> 00:40:38,560
 +
Parthenon
 +
 +
853
 +
00:40:36,359 --> 00:40:42,760
 +
all right because Gothic cathedrals are
 +
 +
854
 +
00:40:38,560 --> 00:40:44,770
 +
mostly air and windows and then geodesic
 +
 +
855
 +
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:47,619
 +
domes using a completely different
 +
 +
856
 +
00:40:44,770 --> 00:40:49,180
 +
theory can you can make a geodesic dome
 +
 +
857
 +
00:40:47,619 --> 00:40:51,490
 +
that will go over all of the Gothic
 +
 +
858
 +
00:40:49,180 --> 00:40:53,589
 +
cathedrals made on earth using a
 +
 +
859
 +
00:40:51,490 --> 00:40:55,329
 +
different architecture the way we
 +
 +
860
 +
00:40:53,589 --> 00:40:58,390
 +
improve ourselves is by changing
 +
 +
861
 +
00:40:55,329 --> 00:41:02,980
 +
architectures we have the same IQ we had
 +
 +
862
 +
00:40:58,390 --> 00:41:07,000
 +
ten thousand years ago imagine having an
 +
 +
863
 +
00:41:02,980 --> 00:41:10,070
 +
IQ of 250 in the year 10,000 BC what
 +
 +
864
 +
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:13,880
 +
could you do not a lot
 +
 +
865
 +
00:41:10,070 --> 00:41:17,060
 +
all right Leonardo probably had an IQ of
 +
 +
866
 +
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:19,310
 +
250 he did a lot of drawings but he
 +
 +
867
 +
00:41:17,060 --> 00:41:21,530
 +
could hardly build anything because he
 +
 +
868
 +
00:41:19,310 --> 00:41:23,810
 +
wasn't in a place where he could
 +
 +
869
 +
00:41:21,530 --> 00:41:26,360
 +
leverage his IQ you leverage IQ with
 +
 +
870
 +
00:41:23,810 --> 00:41:27,680
 +
knowledge and architectures these are
 +
 +
871
 +
00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:29,870
 +
the thing most important things the
 +
 +
872
 +
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:32,510
 +
human race comes up with our different
 +
 +
873
 +
00:41:29,870 --> 00:41:34,310
 +
ways of thinking about things that allow
 +
 +
874
 +
00:41:32,510 --> 00:41:38,120
 +
us to appear much smarter than we did
 +
 +
875
 +
00:41:34,310 --> 00:41:39,650
 +
years ago so here's a my favorite
 +
 +
876
 +
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:43,520
 +
metaphor for the future Nicholas
 +
 +
877
 +
00:41:39,650 --> 00:41:45,040
 +
Negroponte II said once we'll know it's
 +
 +
878
 +
00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:47,870
 +
the future when my left cufflink
 +
 +
879
 +
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:53,090
 +
communicates with my right cuff link via
 +
 +
880
 +
00:41:47,870 --> 00:41:56,840
 +
satellite this sort of sums it all up
 +
 +
881
 +
00:41:53,090 --> 00:42:02,060
 +
now let me ask you do you think Nicholas
 +
 +
882
 +
00:41:56,840 --> 00:42:04,430
 +
was being facetious no in fact by the
 +
 +
883
 +
00:42:02,060 --> 00:42:06,710
 +
year 2000 you will be able to have a
 +
 +
884
 +
00:42:04,430 --> 00:42:10,310
 +
cuff link size thing that can go up to a
 +
 +
885
 +
00:42:06,710 --> 00:42:12,320
 +
satellite and come down you ever called
 +
 +
886
 +
00:42:10,310 --> 00:42:15,290
 +
at dinner if you have a cellular phone
 +
 +
887
 +
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:16,730
 +
and your friend has one and you've
 +
 +
888
 +
00:42:15,290 --> 00:42:19,520
 +
talked to each other across the dinner
 +
 +
889
 +
00:42:16,730 --> 00:42:20,960
 +
table with your cellular phones do you
 +
 +
890
 +
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:27,130
 +
have any idea of where the information
 +
 +
891
 +
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:31,400
 +
is going in order to come back okay so
 +
 +
892
 +
00:42:27,130 --> 00:42:33,470
 +
this is a way of thinking about I like
 +
 +
893
 +
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:37,400
 +
this one because it's so so you tray
 +
 +
894
 +
00:42:33,470 --> 00:42:39,440
 +
it's very Nicolas like it's so tray that
 +
 +
895
 +
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:41,840
 +
it gets people thinking about wow this
 +
 +
896
 +
00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:46,910
 +
is not the computing I thought we were
 +
 +
897
 +
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:49,730
 +
doing so particularly the future is easy
 +
 +
898
 +
00:42:46,910 --> 00:42:51,380
 +
it hasn't changed in 20 years that's the
 +
 +
899
 +
00:42:49,730 --> 00:42:53,630
 +
number one thing you have to understand
 +
 +
900
 +
00:42:51,380 --> 00:42:56,000
 +
it takes so long to get this stuff out
 +
 +
901
 +
00:42:53,630 --> 00:42:58,280
 +
of labs it takes even longer to convince
 +
 +
902
 +
00:42:56,000 --> 00:43:00,860
 +
venture capitalists and other people to
 +
 +
903
 +
00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:02,570
 +
support it every technology that's going
 +
 +
904
 +
00:43:00,860 --> 00:43:06,140
 +
to affect you in the next 10 years is
 +
 +
905
 +
00:43:02,570 --> 00:43:07,790
 +
already in somebody's lap so one of
 +
 +
906
 +
00:43:06,140 --> 00:43:10,280
 +
things you have to ask yourself do you
 +
 +
907
 +
00:43:07,790 --> 00:43:12,920
 +
pay somebody even half time to go around
 +
 +
908
 +
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:16,370
 +
and visit the 40 or so labs in the world
 +
 +
909
 +
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:17,060
 +
that count probably not so how do you
 +
 +
910
 +
00:43:16,370 --> 00:43:19,579
 +
know you're gonna wait until
 +
 +
911
 +
00:43:17,060 --> 00:43:21,229
 +
Businessweek discovers it
 +
 +
912
 +
00:43:19,579 --> 00:43:24,079
 +
they don't understand half of these
 +
 +
913
 +
00:43:21,229 --> 00:43:26,630
 +
technologies most scientists like myself
 +
 +
914
 +
00:43:24,079 --> 00:43:28,910
 +
spend part of our time just visiting
 +
 +
915
 +
00:43:26,630 --> 00:43:30,529
 +
other people's research labs because we
 +
 +
916
 +
00:43:28,910 --> 00:43:34,039
 +
can't wait for journals to come out
 +
 +
917
 +
00:43:30,529 --> 00:43:35,930
 +
journals are always two years behind and
 +
 +
918
 +
00:43:34,039 --> 00:43:38,209
 +
so most of the stuff virtually
 +
 +
919
 +
00:43:35,930 --> 00:43:40,609
 +
everything that is going to affect you
 +
 +
920
 +
00:43:38,209 --> 00:43:42,369
 +
already exists in some demonstratable
 +
 +
921
 +
00:43:40,609 --> 00:43:45,739
 +
form and you should know about it
 +
 +
922
 +
00:43:42,369 --> 00:43:47,599
 +
because those are the actual tools that
 +
 +
923
 +
00:43:45,739 --> 00:43:49,869
 +
we are going to make it possible for you
 +
 +
924
 +
00:43:47,599 --> 00:43:52,759
 +
to build the future that you want okay
 +
 +
925
 +
00:43:49,869 --> 00:43:57,650
 +
now here comes so that was the uplifting
 +
 +
926
 +
00:43:52,759 --> 00:43:59,900
 +
part now the problem with this picture
 +
 +
927
 +
00:43:57,650 --> 00:44:02,359
 +
is that every time a technological
 +
 +
928
 +
00:43:59,900 --> 00:44:03,859
 +
advance comes along almost everybody
 +
 +
929
 +
00:44:02,359 --> 00:44:05,630
 +
tries to automate all of their old
 +
 +
930
 +
00:44:03,859 --> 00:44:06,430
 +
processes we've already talked about
 +
 +
931
 +
00:44:05,630 --> 00:44:08,719
 +
that
 +
 +
932
 +
00:44:06,430 --> 00:44:11,209
 +
that is not the way to do it because
 +
 +
933
 +
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:13,700
 +
often the technology is not even as good
 +
 +
934
 +
00:44:11,209 --> 00:44:15,739
 +
as the old technology when it starts
 +
 +
935
 +
00:44:13,700 --> 00:44:19,759
 +
automating ever tried to read a couple
 +
 +
936
 +
00:44:15,739 --> 00:44:22,069
 +
of paragraphs off of CRT I think CRTs
 +
 +
937
 +
00:44:19,759 --> 00:44:25,670
 +
are good at automating what books do
 +
 +
938
 +
00:44:22,069 --> 00:44:27,559
 +
they're terrible so what you have to do
 +
 +
939
 +
00:44:25,670 --> 00:44:30,499
 +
is ask Ivan Sutherlands question which
 +
 +
940
 +
00:44:27,559 --> 00:44:32,239
 +
is what else can it do you have to
 +
 +
941
 +
00:44:30,499 --> 00:44:34,729
 +
understand how to leverage the new
 +
 +
942
 +
00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:36,469
 +
properties of this technology that will
 +
 +
943
 +
00:44:34,729 --> 00:44:40,190
 +
lead to new processes in your business
 +
 +
944
 +
00:44:36,469 --> 00:44:42,079
 +
and unfortunately for everybody it's
 +
 +
945
 +
00:44:40,190 --> 00:44:44,599
 +
also going to have to require some
 +
 +
946
 +
00:44:42,079 --> 00:44:47,019
 +
learning on your part this is the thing
 +
 +
947
 +
00:44:44,599 --> 00:44:50,059
 +
that humans hate especially Americans
 +
 +
948
 +
00:44:47,019 --> 00:44:52,930
 +
schools teach us to treat classes as
 +
 +
949
 +
00:44:50,059 --> 00:44:56,420
 +
vaccinations against dread diseases
 +
 +
950
 +
00:44:52,930 --> 00:44:58,130
 +
right remember saying thank God I'm done
 +
 +
951
 +
00:44:56,420 --> 00:45:00,349
 +
with that class I never have to take it
 +
 +
952
 +
00:44:58,130 --> 00:45:03,019
 +
again this is like getting a smallpox
 +
 +
953
 +
00:45:00,349 --> 00:45:06,079
 +
shot thank God I'm done with that
 +
 +
954
 +
00:45:03,019 --> 00:45:07,670
 +
vaccination now I'm safe I never have to
 +
 +
955
 +
00:45:06,079 --> 00:45:09,049
 +
learn anything yet the problem is it
 +
 +
956
 +
00:45:07,670 --> 00:45:11,150
 +
doesn't work like that anymore
 +
 +
957
 +
00:45:09,049 --> 00:45:13,219
 +
in order to leverage the new we have to
 +
 +
958
 +
00:45:11,150 --> 00:45:14,449
 +
learn what the new is in order to do
 +
 +
959
 +
00:45:13,219 --> 00:45:15,430
 +
that we have to understand how the mind
 +
 +
960
 +
00:45:14,449 --> 00:45:18,049
 +
works
 +
 +
961
 +
00:45:15,430 --> 00:45:19,489
 +
my favorite saying in McLuhan's is I
 +
 +
962
 +
00:45:18,049 --> 00:45:22,880
 +
don't know who discovered water but it
 +
 +
963
 +
00:45:19,489 --> 00:45:26,690
 +
wasn't a fish this is our number one
 +
 +
964
 +
00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:29,509
 +
problem what he meant is that we exist
 +
 +
965
 +
00:45:26,690 --> 00:45:31,219
 +
in a goldfish bowl filled with water
 +
 +
966
 +
00:45:29,509 --> 00:45:33,320
 +
that we don't know exists and that water
 +
 +
967
 +
00:45:31,219 --> 00:45:38,130
 +
is called our beliefs
 +
 +
968
 +
00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:40,350
 +
to us we are in reality those people
 +
 +
969
 +
00:45:38,130 --> 00:45:41,970
 +
halfway across the world that think
 +
 +
970
 +
00:45:40,350 --> 00:45:45,120
 +
differently than we do have to be wrong
 +
 +
971
 +
00:45:41,970 --> 00:45:47,310
 +
and therefore we should kill them this
 +
 +
972
 +
00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:49,950
 +
is the way human beings work because
 +
 +
973
 +
00:45:47,310 --> 00:45:53,370
 +
we're not conscious that we don't live
 +
 +
974
 +
00:45:49,950 --> 00:45:57,390
 +
in reality we live in beliefs in fact we
 +
 +
975
 +
00:45:53,370 --> 00:45:59,760
 +
can't ever get to reality can't ever get
 +
 +
976
 +
00:45:57,390 --> 00:46:02,610
 +
to reality there is no reality that we
 +
 +
977
 +
00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:06,060
 +
can get to yeah beliefs and the beliefs
 +
 +
978
 +
00:46:02,610 --> 00:46:08,250
 +
can be good or bad Maps so this this
 +
 +
979
 +
00:46:06,060 --> 00:46:09,990
 +
image I think is perfect if you always
 +
 +
980
 +
00:46:08,250 --> 00:46:12,030
 +
think of yourself as being in a goldfish
 +
 +
981
 +
00:46:09,990 --> 00:46:16,740
 +
bowl you have to ask yourself what color
 +
 +
982
 +
00:46:12,030 --> 00:46:18,590
 +
water am i swimming in right now so one
 +
 +
983
 +
00:46:16,740 --> 00:46:22,860
 +
of the things that we do culturally is
 +
 +
984
 +
00:46:18,590 --> 00:46:24,720
 +
that we teach people are special
 +
 +
985
 +
00:46:22,860 --> 00:46:26,370
 +
goldfish bowls so we have like a
 +
 +
986
 +
00:46:24,720 --> 00:46:31,070
 +
different goldfish bowl and people in
 +
 +
987
 +
00:46:26,370 --> 00:46:31,070
 +
India do or people in Lebanon
 +
 +
988
 +
00:46:34,120 --> 00:46:38,380
 +
okay now take a look at this face upside
 +
 +
989
 +
00:46:36,400 --> 00:46:41,070
 +
down face and see if you can see ting
 +
 +
990
 +
00:46:38,380 --> 00:46:45,130
 +
interesting about it
 +
 +
991
 +
00:46:41,070 --> 00:46:49,720
 +
who's got what do you think the mouth is
 +
 +
992
 +
00:46:45,130 --> 00:46:56,080
 +
what mouth is upside down see anything
 +
 +
993
 +
00:46:49,720 --> 00:46:57,520
 +
else about the picture okay let's let's
 +
 +
994
 +
00:46:56,080 --> 00:46:59,620
 +
pretend we're in a typical American
 +
 +
995
 +
00:46:57,520 --> 00:47:02,640
 +
school or let's say a Wells Fargo
 +
 +
996
 +
00:46:59,620 --> 00:47:06,010
 +
training center
 +
 +
997
 +
00:47:02,640 --> 00:47:10,950
 +
okay the dominant belief in school is
 +
 +
998
 +
00:47:06,010 --> 00:47:14,140
 +
that knowledge is a fluid and the way we
 +
 +
999
 +
00:47:10,950 --> 00:47:16,240
 +
teach it is we transfer drop by drop
 +
 +
1000
 +
00:47:14,140 --> 00:47:19,740
 +
from the full student full teacher
 +
 +
1001
 +
00:47:16,240 --> 00:47:22,780
 +
vessel to the empty student vessel okay
 +
 +
1002
 +
00:47:19,740 --> 00:47:24,160
 +
that fluid is in terms of a language
 +
 +
1003
 +
00:47:22,780 --> 00:47:26,530
 +
like English so let me give you a
 +
 +
1004
 +
00:47:24,160 --> 00:47:27,940
 +
sentence about this picture what we've
 +
 +
1005
 +
00:47:26,530 --> 00:47:31,690
 +
done here is we've taken a picture of a
 +
 +
1006
 +
00:47:27,940 --> 00:47:35,470
 +
young girl extracted her mouth and her
 +
 +
1007
 +
00:47:31,690 --> 00:47:36,790
 +
eyes turn both of them upside down put
 +
 +
1008
 +
00:47:35,470 --> 00:47:39,240
 +
them back into the picture and then
 +
 +
1009
 +
00:47:36,790 --> 00:47:43,030
 +
turned the entire picture upside down
 +
 +
1010
 +
00:47:39,240 --> 00:47:46,350
 +
okay so now you should be quite prepared
 +
 +
1011
 +
00:47:43,030 --> 00:47:46,350
 +
for what it looks like right side up
 +
 +
1012
 +
00:47:49,660 --> 00:47:53,720
 +
now I'm going to turn this back because
 +
 +
1013
 +
00:47:52,190 --> 00:48:00,440
 +
I've discovered nobody will listen to me
 +
 +
1014
 +
00:47:53,720 --> 00:48:02,240
 +
when it's on the other way now you have
 +
 +
1015
 +
00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:05,690
 +
to realize I didn't give you any more
 +
 +
1016
 +
00:48:02,240 --> 00:48:07,430
 +
information the second time right what I
 +
 +
1017
 +
00:48:05,690 --> 00:48:09,200
 +
described in that sentence was exactly
 +
 +
1018
 +
00:48:07,430 --> 00:48:11,329
 +
what you saw and yet you had a reaction
 +
 +
1019
 +
00:48:09,200 --> 00:48:13,490
 +
on the second picture you didn't have
 +
 +
1020
 +
00:48:11,329 --> 00:48:21,099
 +
one on the first who knows what that
 +
 +
1021
 +
00:48:13,490 --> 00:48:21,099
 +
means who's got a theory don't be shy
 +
 +
1022
 +
00:48:21,339 --> 00:48:32,930
 +
why is it worth it why is it worth a
 +
 +
1023
 +
00:48:23,569 --> 00:48:35,230
 +
thousand words because but why yeah but
 +
 +
1024
 +
00:48:32,930 --> 00:48:37,460
 +
why why couldn't you
 +
 +
1025
 +
00:48:35,230 --> 00:48:43,000
 +
why couldn't you picture what it was
 +
 +
1026
 +
00:48:37,460 --> 00:48:47,119
 +
going to look like from my words okay so
 +
 +
1027
 +
00:48:43,000 --> 00:48:49,490
 +
lots of different theory the real what
 +
 +
1028
 +
00:48:47,119 --> 00:48:50,780
 +
what is actually going on here and it's
 +
 +
1029
 +
00:48:49,490 --> 00:48:52,339
 +
been confirmed in a particularly
 +
 +
1030
 +
00:48:50,780 --> 00:48:54,559
 +
striking way as the last four or five
 +
 +
1031
 +
00:48:52,339 --> 00:48:57,500
 +
years is that when you're listening to
 +
 +
1032
 +
00:48:54,559 --> 00:48:59,420
 +
English sentences a part of your brain
 +
 +
1033
 +
00:48:57,500 --> 00:49:04,460
 +
over here and a part of your brain over
 +
 +
1034
 +
00:48:59,420 --> 00:49:05,930
 +
here is active okay and when you're
 +
 +
1035
 +
00:49:04,460 --> 00:49:07,760
 +
looking at pictures a part of your brain
 +
 +
1036
 +
00:49:05,930 --> 00:49:12,619
 +
back here and a part of your brain down
 +
 +
1037
 +
00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:15,589
 +
here particularly for faces is active so
 +
 +
1038
 +
00:49:12,619 --> 00:49:17,059
 +
you're thinking about words completely
 +
 +
1039
 +
00:49:15,589 --> 00:49:18,950
 +
differently and with a different set of
 +
 +
1040
 +
00:49:17,059 --> 00:49:23,089
 +
mechanisms than you're thinking about
 +
 +
1041
 +
00:49:18,950 --> 00:49:24,920
 +
pictures think about that this is why
 +
 +
1042
 +
00:49:23,089 --> 00:49:26,930
 +
McDonald's will never run a print ad
 +
 +
1043
 +
00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:29,260
 +
saying if you eat a McDonald's hamburger
 +
 +
1044
 +
00:49:26,930 --> 00:49:32,779
 +
you'll become a better-looking person
 +
 +
1045
 +
00:49:29,260 --> 00:49:35,750
 +
right because it's absurd in English but
 +
 +
1046
 +
00:49:32,779 --> 00:49:40,069
 +
what do they do they run ads with
 +
 +
1047
 +
00:49:35,750 --> 00:49:42,680
 +
gorgeous people holding hamburgers and a
 +
 +
1048
 +
00:49:40,069 --> 00:49:44,690
 +
different part of your brain a part of
 +
 +
1049
 +
00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:46,490
 +
your brain that remembers very well but
 +
 +
1050
 +
00:49:44,690 --> 00:49:48,799
 +
isn't so good at thinking makes the
 +
 +
1051
 +
00:49:46,490 --> 00:49:51,230
 +
inference the advertisers want them what
 +
 +
1052
 +
00:49:48,799 --> 00:49:53,029
 +
you want you to McLuhan was once asked
 +
 +
1053
 +
00:49:51,230 --> 00:49:54,349
 +
why don't you read psychology books and
 +
 +
1054
 +
00:49:53,029 --> 00:49:56,750
 +
he said well psychologists study white
 +
 +
1055
 +
00:49:54,349 --> 00:49:58,279
 +
rats he says I look to see what
 +
 +
1056
 +
00:49:56,750 --> 00:50:01,299
 +
advertisers are doing they're the ones
 +
 +
1057
 +
00:49:58,279 --> 00:50:01,299
 +
who are studying humans
 +
 +
1058
 +
00:50:04,509 --> 00:50:09,769
 +
this is why the Presidential Debates
 +
 +
1059
 +
00:50:07,160 --> 00:50:12,529
 +
which were three hours long a hundred
 +
 +
1060
 +
00:50:09,769 --> 00:50:16,759
 +
years ago are now two minutes on each
 +
 +
1061
 +
00:50:12,529 --> 00:50:17,809
 +
point on television right because there
 +
 +
1062
 +
00:50:16,759 --> 00:50:21,529
 +
is nothing to think about
 +
 +
1063
 +
00:50:17,809 --> 00:50:23,059
 +
from what television shows you and none
 +
 +
1064
 +
00:50:21,529 --> 00:50:26,119
 +
of the politicians want you to think
 +
 +
1065
 +
00:50:23,059 --> 00:50:28,489
 +
about any of the issues that's why they
 +
 +
1066
 +
00:50:26,119 --> 00:50:29,989
 +
come on television and you don't want to
 +
 +
1067
 +
00:50:28,489 --> 00:50:34,900
 +
think about the issues which is why you
 +
 +
1068
 +
00:50:29,989 --> 00:50:39,859
 +
watch them on television itself and I
 +
 +
1069
 +
00:50:34,900 --> 00:50:43,309
 +
there's an ni there's no one of us there
 +
 +
1070
 +
00:50:39,859 --> 00:50:45,589
 +
are actually lots of us in here thinking
 +
 +
1071
 +
00:50:43,309 --> 00:50:47,679
 +
different ways and most of the time
 +
 +
1072
 +
00:50:45,589 --> 00:50:50,630
 +
we're not aware of it at all
 +
 +
1073
 +
00:50:47,679 --> 00:50:52,579
 +
so Brenner was American psychologist who
 +
 +
1074
 +
00:50:50,630 --> 00:50:55,339
 +
studied this stuff he took a six year
 +
 +
1075
 +
00:50:52,579 --> 00:50:57,529
 +
old kid six year old kids when you pour
 +
 +
1076
 +
00:50:55,339 --> 00:50:59,630
 +
from a squat glass into a tall thin one
 +
 +
1077
 +
00:50:57,529 --> 00:51:02,269
 +
we'll say there's more water in the tall
 +
 +
1078
 +
00:50:59,630 --> 00:51:04,309
 +
thin glass because they're there in
 +
 +
1079
 +
00:51:02,269 --> 00:51:07,640
 +
what's called an iconic reasoning stage
 +
 +
1080
 +
00:51:04,309 --> 00:51:11,029
 +
and this is pretty constant from kid to
 +
 +
1081
 +
00:51:07,640 --> 00:51:13,069
 +
kid around age five or six then Brenner
 +
 +
1082
 +
00:51:11,029 --> 00:51:14,359
 +
did something interesting he's got a kid
 +
 +
1083
 +
00:51:13,069 --> 00:51:16,189
 +
who would say there's more water in the
 +
 +
1084
 +
00:51:14,359 --> 00:51:18,739
 +
tall glass and he covered up the tall
 +
 +
1085
 +
00:51:16,189 --> 00:51:20,119
 +
glass with cardboard and asked the
 +
 +
1086
 +
00:51:18,739 --> 00:51:22,069
 +
question again the kids say oh wait a
 +
 +
1087
 +
00:51:20,119 --> 00:51:24,199
 +
minute there can't be more water where
 +
 +
1088
 +
00:51:22,069 --> 00:51:25,699
 +
were to go where would it come from and
 +
 +
1089
 +
00:51:24,199 --> 00:51:27,799
 +
Brenner took the cardboard away and the
 +
 +
1090
 +
00:51:25,699 --> 00:51:29,839
 +
kid said no look there's more water and
 +
 +
1091
 +
00:51:27,799 --> 00:51:31,819
 +
Brenda put the cardboard back and the
 +
 +
1092
 +
00:51:29,839 --> 00:51:33,079
 +
kid changed his mind again so if you
 +
 +
1093
 +
00:51:31,819 --> 00:51:35,529
 +
have any six-year-olds you'd like to
 +
 +
1094
 +
00:51:33,079 --> 00:51:35,529
 +
torment
 +
 +
1095
 +
00:51:39,470 --> 00:51:47,910
 +
okay what was Brenner exploring who's
 +
 +
1096
 +
00:51:42,809 --> 00:51:50,819
 +
got a theory yeah
 +
 +
1097
 +
00:51:47,910 --> 00:51:56,039
 +
visual versus language visual versus
 +
 +
1098
 +
00:51:50,819 --> 00:51:59,700
 +
symbolic so he said you know there are
 +
 +
1099
 +
00:51:56,039 --> 00:52:01,249
 +
at least three ways we have of knowing
 +
 +
1100
 +
00:51:59,700 --> 00:52:03,539
 +
about the world and probably a lot more
 +
 +
1101
 +
00:52:01,249 --> 00:52:05,460
 +
how many people here have ever
 +
 +
1102
 +
00:52:03,539 --> 00:52:07,109
 +
remembered a route better when they were
 +
 +
1103
 +
00:52:05,460 --> 00:52:17,940
 +
driving the car versus when they were a
 +
 +
1104
 +
00:52:07,109 --> 00:52:21,299
 +
passenger why huh yeah we have a
 +
 +
1105
 +
00:52:17,940 --> 00:52:22,829
 +
kinesthetic mentality this is the one if
 +
 +
1106
 +
00:52:21,299 --> 00:52:24,150
 +
you're a musician you know much a lot
 +
 +
1107
 +
00:52:22,829 --> 00:52:25,739
 +
about this one this is the one that you
 +
 +
1108
 +
00:52:24,150 --> 00:52:29,460
 +
have to get it this is the one that
 +
 +
1109
 +
00:52:25,739 --> 00:52:31,470
 +
learns how to ride the bike so we have
 +
 +
1110
 +
00:52:29,460 --> 00:52:32,940
 +
that's a completely separate one that's
 +
 +
1111
 +
00:52:31,470 --> 00:52:35,180
 +
why you can't just watch somebody
 +
 +
1112
 +
00:52:32,940 --> 00:52:37,019
 +
playing a sport and go out and do it
 +
 +
1113
 +
00:52:35,180 --> 00:52:40,470
 +
it's in a different part of the brain
 +
 +
1114
 +
00:52:37,019 --> 00:52:44,160
 +
it's in a different set of symbols we
 +
 +
1115
 +
00:52:40,470 --> 00:52:46,170
 +
have a visual mentality one of its great
 +
 +
1116
 +
00:52:44,160 --> 00:52:48,299
 +
tricks is how many people here now admit
 +
 +
1117
 +
00:52:46,170 --> 00:52:51,079
 +
it I'll admit it how many people click
 +
 +
1118
 +
00:52:48,299 --> 00:52:51,079
 +
through channels
 +
 +
1119
 +
00:52:51,570 --> 00:52:55,720
 +
how many people here have ever clicked
 +
 +
1120
 +
00:52:53,980 --> 00:52:58,990
 +
into the middle of a movie they haven't
 +
 +
1121
 +
00:52:55,720 --> 00:53:03,490
 +
seen for 20 years how long did it take
 +
 +
1122
 +
00:52:58,990 --> 00:53:07,570
 +
you to recognize that movie a couple of
 +
 +
1123
 +
00:53:03,490 --> 00:53:14,080
 +
seconds think about that now compared to
 +
 +
1124
 +
00:53:07,570 --> 00:53:16,690
 +
school twenty years ago you were with a
 +
 +
1125
 +
00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:18,130
 +
significant other most likely you did
 +
 +
1126
 +
00:53:16,690 --> 00:53:20,920
 +
not have your mind on the movie
 +
 +
1127
 +
00:53:18,130 --> 00:53:24,640
 +
particularly didn't know you're going to
 +
 +
1128
 +
00:53:20,920 --> 00:53:26,820
 +
be tested 20 years later the test was
 +
 +
1129
 +
00:53:24,640 --> 00:53:30,570
 +
random into the center of the thing and
 +
 +
1130
 +
00:53:26,820 --> 00:53:32,740
 +
yet within about 50 frames your visual
 +
 +
1131
 +
00:53:30,570 --> 00:53:34,900
 +
mentality had retrieved that you'd seen
 +
 +
1132
 +
00:53:32,740 --> 00:53:36,130
 +
it before and about half of the time in
 +
 +
1133
 +
00:53:34,900 --> 00:53:37,950
 +
tests that have been done people
 +
 +
1134
 +
00:53:36,130 --> 00:53:40,270
 +
remember what's going to happen next
 +
 +
1135
 +
00:53:37,950 --> 00:53:42,730
 +
think about this in the context of your
 +
 +
1136
 +
00:53:40,270 --> 00:53:47,619
 +
entire life and think of why there are
 +
 +
1137
 +
00:53:42,730 --> 00:53:50,080
 +
icons on a user interface if you put
 +
 +
1138
 +
00:53:47,619 --> 00:53:52,030
 +
pictures of animals up on the wall you
 +
 +
1139
 +
00:53:50,080 --> 00:53:55,990
 +
can find the elephant four times faster
 +
 +
1140
 +
00:53:52,030 --> 00:53:58,990
 +
than pic then words for the animals and
 +
 +
1141
 +
00:53:55,990 --> 00:54:01,540
 +
here's a beautiful one if you put boxes
 +
 +
1142
 +
00:53:58,990 --> 00:54:05,020
 +
around the words you can find the word
 +
 +
1143
 +
00:54:01,540 --> 00:54:09,480
 +
elephant twice as fast then if there
 +
 +
1144
 +
00:54:05,020 --> 00:54:09,480
 +
isn't a box there why
 +
 +
1145
 +
00:54:15,710 --> 00:54:22,309
 +
yeah but basically what happens is the
 +
 +
1146
 +
00:54:17,780 --> 00:54:23,930
 +
Box icon eise's the word the words are
 +
 +
1147
 +
00:54:22,309 --> 00:54:26,059
 +
actually perceived in a different place
 +
 +
1148
 +
00:54:23,930 --> 00:54:30,380
 +
in your brain then then images that
 +
 +
1149
 +
00:54:26,059 --> 00:54:33,770
 +
aren't words see why am I am I telling
 +
 +
1150
 +
00:54:30,380 --> 00:54:37,250
 +
you this stuff because the world is not
 +
 +
1151
 +
00:54:33,770 --> 00:54:39,619
 +
as it seems right we go from day to day
 +
 +
1152
 +
00:54:37,250 --> 00:54:43,910
 +
from moment to moment thinking that
 +
 +
1153
 +
00:54:39,619 --> 00:54:46,099
 +
what's out there is reality it isn't all
 +
 +
1154
 +
00:54:43,910 --> 00:54:48,260
 +
it is is interpretations by that three
 +
 +
1155
 +
00:54:46,099 --> 00:54:52,160
 +
pounds of oatmeal we've got between our
 +
 +
1156
 +
00:54:48,260 --> 00:54:55,300
 +
ears and that three pounds of oatmeal
 +
 +
1157
 +
00:54:52,160 --> 00:54:58,849
 +
can be taught to perceive things any way
 +
 +
1158
 +
00:54:55,300 --> 00:55:01,790
 +
the culture chooses let's look at
 +
 +
1159
 +
00:54:58,849 --> 00:55:05,630
 +
creativity for a second here we are
 +
 +
1160
 +
00:55:01,790 --> 00:55:06,940
 +
plotting along in the pink context you
 +
 +
1161
 +
00:55:05,630 --> 00:55:10,579
 +
can think of this is a goldfish bowl
 +
 +
1162
 +
00:55:06,940 --> 00:55:11,930
 +
we're in a goldfish bowl and when
 +
 +
1163
 +
00:55:10,579 --> 00:55:13,119
 +
somebody wants us to do something the
 +
 +
1164
 +
00:55:11,930 --> 00:55:15,349
 +
best thing we can think of is
 +
 +
1165
 +
00:55:13,119 --> 00:55:18,380
 +
extrapolation or if going from A to B
 +
 +
1166
 +
00:55:15,349 --> 00:55:20,660
 +
problem solving so it's very hard to be
 +
 +
1167
 +
00:55:18,380 --> 00:55:23,540
 +
creative when you stay inside the
 +
 +
1168
 +
00:55:20,660 --> 00:55:26,059
 +
goldfish bowl moments of creativity
 +
 +
1169
 +
00:55:23,540 --> 00:55:29,270
 +
happen when something happens oh yeah
 +
 +
1170
 +
00:55:26,059 --> 00:55:33,290
 +
here's a good example is if you take
 +
 +
1171
 +
00:55:29,270 --> 00:55:37,160
 +
frogs and paralyze their food with a
 +
 +
1172
 +
00:55:33,290 --> 00:55:41,240
 +
little chloroform flies the frog will
 +
 +
1173
 +
00:55:37,160 --> 00:55:44,329
 +
not eat them the Frog cannot see flies
 +
 +
1174
 +
00:55:41,240 --> 00:55:46,430
 +
that aren't moving that's incredible
 +
 +
1175
 +
00:55:44,329 --> 00:55:51,140
 +
but it will try and eat little oblong
 +
 +
1176
 +
00:55:46,430 --> 00:55:52,819
 +
shapes of cardboard that are moving this
 +
 +
1177
 +
00:55:51,140 --> 00:55:54,859
 +
cyan't we scientists love this one
 +
 +
1178
 +
00:55:52,819 --> 00:55:56,630
 +
because we we think of the you know the
 +
 +
1179
 +
00:55:54,859 --> 00:55:58,250
 +
ideas they're all around us if you think
 +
 +
1180
 +
00:55:56,630 --> 00:56:02,240
 +
of the Flies as I did we just can't see
 +
 +
1181
 +
00:55:58,250 --> 00:56:03,799
 +
them they're just there all the time we
 +
 +
1182
 +
00:56:02,240 --> 00:56:06,170
 +
can't see my nervous system won't let us
 +
 +
1183
 +
00:56:03,799 --> 00:56:10,970
 +
do it we're keep on snapping at pieces
 +
 +
1184
 +
00:56:06,170 --> 00:56:13,130
 +
of cardboard but then something great
 +
 +
1185
 +
00:56:10,970 --> 00:56:16,700
 +
happens something makes us look at the
 +
 +
1186
 +
00:56:13,130 --> 00:56:19,460
 +
idea in a different way and bingo we
 +
 +
1187
 +
00:56:16,700 --> 00:56:22,490
 +
have an idea this is why I say terrific
 +
 +
1188
 +
00:56:19,460 --> 00:56:24,650
 +
ideas usually hide behind good ones good
 +
 +
1189
 +
00:56:22,490 --> 00:56:26,420
 +
ones are the ones that you get by logic
 +
 +
1190
 +
00:56:24,650 --> 00:56:28,460
 +
in the same context you're improving
 +
 +
1191
 +
00:56:26,420 --> 00:56:29,000
 +
something this is what engineers like to
 +
 +
1192
 +
00:56:28,460 --> 00:56:30,560
 +
do
 +
 +
1193
 +
00:56:29,000 --> 00:56:34,760
 +
take something it already exists and
 +
 +
1194
 +
00:56:30,560 --> 00:56:36,470
 +
make it better okay you want to get a
 +
 +
1195
 +
00:56:34,760 --> 00:56:39,050
 +
completely new idea you have to have a
 +
 +
1196
 +
00:56:36,470 --> 00:56:41,990
 +
bingo and this bingo operates in
 +
 +
1197
 +
00:56:39,050 --> 00:56:44,060
 +
different areas so Arthur Kessler said
 +
 +
1198
 +
00:56:41,990 --> 00:56:46,460
 +
you know if you're telling a joke this
 +
 +
1199
 +
00:56:44,060 --> 00:56:48,410
 +
is a joke isn't it the joke takes you
 +
 +
1200
 +
00:56:46,460 --> 00:56:50,720
 +
down one path and suddenly reveals
 +
 +
1201
 +
00:56:48,410 --> 00:56:52,460
 +
you're in another context so if it's a
 +
 +
1202
 +
00:56:50,720 --> 00:56:56,840
 +
joke you laugh out loud and sometimes
 +
 +
1203
 +
00:56:52,460 --> 00:56:59,210
 +
you do in science as well science it's
 +
 +
1204
 +
00:56:56,840 --> 00:57:02,390
 +
in humorous ha-ha and science it's a ha
 +
 +
1205
 +
00:56:59,210 --> 00:57:05,450
 +
and an art it's aa because each one of
 +
 +
1206
 +
00:57:02,390 --> 00:57:07,130
 +
these things is designed and is set up
 +
 +
1207
 +
00:57:05,450 --> 00:57:10,280
 +
to take you from the context you're in
 +
 +
1208
 +
00:57:07,130 --> 00:57:14,330
 +
to another context you ever thought of
 +
 +
1209
 +
00:57:10,280 --> 00:57:16,070
 +
having art classes at Wells Fargo ever
 +
 +
1210
 +
00:57:14,330 --> 00:57:20,210
 +
thought of having art classes for your
 +
 +
1211
 +
00:57:16,070 --> 00:57:24,190
 +
kids in school after prop 13 ever wonder
 +
 +
1212
 +
00:57:20,210 --> 00:57:24,190
 +
why people are dull and boring
 +
 +
1213
 +
00:57:32,350 --> 00:57:39,800
 +
yeah aha
 +
 +
1214
 +
00:57:35,530 --> 00:57:41,210
 +
that's the whole point of this talk so
 +
 +
1215
 +
00:57:39,800 --> 00:57:42,620
 +
if we look at Kessler's way of looking
 +
 +
1216
 +
00:57:41,210 --> 00:57:45,170
 +
at things general education is
 +
 +
1217
 +
00:57:42,620 --> 00:57:47,810
 +
incredibly important all that stuff that
 +
 +
1218
 +
00:57:45,170 --> 00:57:50,630
 +
is non pragmatic is actually what we
 +
 +
1219
 +
00:57:47,810 --> 00:57:53,630
 +
need to be creative the reason is that
 +
 +
1220
 +
00:57:50,630 --> 00:57:56,120
 +
if we know lots of things and we're sort
 +
 +
1221
 +
00:57:53,630 --> 00:57:57,740
 +
of meandering our way in the pink
 +
 +
1222
 +
00:57:56,120 --> 00:58:01,040
 +
context where I can we usually are just
 +
 +
1223
 +
00:57:57,740 --> 00:58:03,080
 +
our subconscious mind makes little
 +
 +
1224
 +
00:58:01,040 --> 00:58:06,350
 +
ripples into these other things that we
 +
 +
1225
 +
00:58:03,080 --> 00:58:07,850
 +
know it's like a little ripple into the
 +
 +
1226
 +
00:58:06,350 --> 00:58:09,650
 +
blue context for a second and then
 +
 +
1227
 +
00:58:07,850 --> 00:58:11,300
 +
flashing back out because the the pink
 +
 +
1228
 +
00:58:09,650 --> 00:58:12,890
 +
context said oh no that's not what we're
 +
 +
1229
 +
00:58:11,300 --> 00:58:15,170
 +
talking about so these little
 +
 +
1230
 +
00:58:12,890 --> 00:58:17,240
 +
distractions that are going on people
 +
 +
1231
 +
00:58:15,170 --> 00:58:21,680
 +
who are good creative thinkers know how
 +
 +
1232
 +
00:58:17,240 --> 00:58:23,270
 +
to make those distractions appear they
 +
 +
1233
 +
00:58:21,680 --> 00:58:26,410
 +
get them out of their subconscious and
 +
 +
1234
 +
00:58:23,270 --> 00:58:29,810
 +
can make them explode into these ideas
 +
 +
1235
 +
00:58:26,410 --> 00:58:34,310
 +
the more you know the more context you
 +
 +
1236
 +
00:58:29,810 --> 00:58:38,120
 +
have to change from the way you're
 +
 +
1237
 +
00:58:34,310 --> 00:58:38,720
 +
thinking into some new way here's
 +
 +
1238
 +
00:58:38,120 --> 00:58:41,950
 +
another problem
 +
 +
1239
 +
00:58:38,720 --> 00:58:44,210
 +
I love frogs they're just the best
 +
 +
1240
 +
00:58:41,950 --> 00:58:47,990
 +
example we probably all of us had front
 +
 +
1241
 +
00:58:44,210 --> 00:58:50,240
 +
have frog blood in us there's another
 +
 +
1242
 +
00:58:47,990 --> 00:58:51,770
 +
thing you can do with a frog you can put
 +
 +
1243
 +
00:58:50,240 --> 00:58:55,430
 +
it in a pot of water and turn on the
 +
 +
1244
 +
00:58:51,770 --> 00:58:58,010
 +
heat really low and that frogs nervous
 +
 +
1245
 +
00:58:55,430 --> 00:59:00,560
 +
system is not set up to detect absolute
 +
 +
1246
 +
00:58:58,010 --> 00:59:04,070
 +
temperature so it will never climb out
 +
 +
1247
 +
00:59:00,560 --> 00:59:07,880
 +
of the pot you'll just sit there and
 +
 +
1248
 +
00:59:04,070 --> 00:59:09,290
 +
gradually boil now the Frog the previous
 +
 +
1249
 +
00:59:07,880 --> 00:59:12,840
 +
frog with the Flies I think of as
 +
 +
1250
 +
00:59:09,290 --> 00:59:16,869
 +
science this one I think of his business
 +
 +
1251
 +
00:59:12,840 --> 00:59:16,869
 +
[Laughter]
 +
 +
1252
 +
00:59:18,330 --> 00:59:24,610
 +
let's be really careful and deliberate
 +
 +
1253
 +
00:59:22,240 --> 00:59:33,580
 +
and we'll really think this out and
 +
 +
1254
 +
00:59:24,610 --> 00:59:35,830
 +
meanwhile okay here's for about a
 +
 +
1255
 +
00:59:33,580 --> 00:59:42,010
 +
hundred thousand years ago here are some
 +
 +
1256
 +
00:59:35,830 --> 00:59:44,770
 +
hand axes so here's here's one of the
 +
 +
1257
 +
00:59:42,010 --> 00:59:48,700
 +
earliest tools that humans used you
 +
 +
1258
 +
00:59:44,770 --> 00:59:51,250
 +
notice it has a flaw in the design when
 +
 +
1259
 +
00:59:48,700 --> 00:59:54,220
 +
you pound on it this goes into your palm
 +
 +
1260
 +
00:59:51,250 --> 00:59:57,100
 +
you pound on it it pounds back into your
 +
 +
1261
 +
00:59:54,220 --> 00:59:58,750
 +
palm and later on they made an
 +
 +
1262
 +
00:59:57,100 --> 01:00:00,790
 +
improvement is they flattened out this
 +
 +
1263
 +
00:59:58,750 --> 01:00:03,550
 +
part so when you pound on it it wouldn't
 +
 +
1264
 +
01:00:00,790 --> 01:00:05,380
 +
pound back into your palm and the thing
 +
 +
1265
 +
01:00:03,550 --> 01:00:07,570
 +
I like especially about this is that the
 +
 +
1266
 +
01:00:05,380 --> 01:00:08,890
 +
interval of time between the picture on
 +
 +
1267
 +
01:00:07,570 --> 01:00:13,930
 +
the left and the picture on the right is
 +
 +
1268
 +
01:00:08,890 --> 01:00:15,310
 +
about two hundred thousand years you can
 +
 +
1269
 +
01:00:13,930 --> 01:00:16,840
 +
imagine every once in a while somebody
 +
 +
1270
 +
01:00:15,310 --> 01:00:18,160
 +
in a village would say you know if we
 +
 +
1271
 +
01:00:16,840 --> 01:00:21,780
 +
just flattened this thing off and they
 +
 +
1272
 +
01:00:18,160 --> 01:00:21,780
 +
take this guy and burn him at the stake
 +
 +
1273
 +
01:00:21,980 --> 01:00:32,400
 +
going against tradition the way it's
 +
 +
1274
 +
01:00:26,849 --> 01:00:33,750
 +
always been done against reality because
 +
 +
1275
 +
01:00:32,400 --> 01:00:34,680
 +
the problem is that every time somebody
 +
 +
1276
 +
01:00:33,750 --> 01:00:36,119
 +
does something like this they're
 +
 +
1277
 +
01:00:34,680 --> 01:00:38,160
 +
actually violating somebody else's
 +
 +
1278
 +
01:00:36,119 --> 01:00:39,990
 +
notion of reality that is why people
 +
 +
1279
 +
01:00:38,160 --> 01:00:42,089
 +
hang on so much they're willing to do
 +
 +
1280
 +
01:00:39,990 --> 01:00:45,539
 +
almost anything rather than be pulled
 +
 +
1281
 +
01:00:42,089 --> 01:00:48,119
 +
out of what they're comfortable with so
 +
 +
1282
 +
01:00:45,539 --> 01:00:52,190
 +
basically what we are today are cave
 +
 +
1283
 +
01:00:48,119 --> 01:00:52,190
 +
people with briefcases
 +
 +
1284
 +
01:00:53,509 --> 01:00:59,400
 +
we're the same genetically as we were a
 +
 +
1285
 +
01:00:56,099 --> 01:01:01,559
 +
hundred thousand years ago but instead
 +
 +
1286
 +
01:00:59,400 --> 01:01:04,559
 +
of being able to learn our culture by
 +
 +
1287
 +
01:01:01,559 --> 01:01:06,059
 +
age 7 or 8 and then committing to it for
 +
 +
1288
 +
01:01:04,559 --> 01:01:08,039
 +
the rest of our life we actually have
 +
 +
1289
 +
01:01:06,059 --> 01:01:12,569
 +
major changes every three or four years
 +
 +
1290
 +
01:01:08,039 --> 01:01:14,609
 +
this is what is screwing us up and when
 +
 +
1291
 +
01:01:12,569 --> 01:01:18,950
 +
a crisis comes along how do we do it we
 +
 +
1292
 +
01:01:14,609 --> 01:01:21,269
 +
use our guts one of my favorite things
 +
 +
1293
 +
01:01:18,950 --> 01:01:22,559
 +
in the paper a couple of days ago in the
 +
 +
1294
 +
01:01:21,269 --> 01:01:27,990
 +
New York Times maybe you saw in the
 +
 +
1295
 +
01:01:22,559 --> 01:01:31,769
 +
business section it said the Fed uses
 +
 +
1296
 +
01:01:27,990 --> 01:01:35,339
 +
its instinct to set the the interest
 +
 +
1297
 +
01:01:31,769 --> 01:01:37,680
 +
rate they said we use our instinct to
 +
 +
1298
 +
01:01:35,339 --> 01:01:39,750
 +
set the ants they're talking about an
 +
 +
1299
 +
01:01:37,680 --> 01:01:40,920
 +
economy with millions and millions of
 +
 +
1300
 +
01:01:39,750 --> 01:01:45,359
 +
different parts and they're trying to
 +
 +
1301
 +
01:01:40,920 --> 01:01:47,730
 +
use their instinct yeah this is like
 +
 +
1302
 +
01:01:45,359 --> 01:01:50,220
 +
voodoo
 +
 +
1303
 +
01:01:47,730 --> 01:01:51,480
 +
another one I saw today and the USA
 +
 +
1304
 +
01:01:50,220 --> 01:01:54,930
 +
Today was good there was a spokesman
 +
 +
1305
 +
01:01:51,480 --> 01:01:57,150
 +
from the tobacco Institute saying they
 +
 +
1306
 +
01:01:54,930 --> 01:01:59,369
 +
did a survey that showed that many more
 +
 +
1307
 +
01:01:57,150 --> 01:02:01,049
 +
people in America knew that cigarette
 +
 +
1308
 +
01:01:59,369 --> 01:02:03,059
 +
smoking was dangerous to their health
 +
 +
1309
 +
01:02:01,049 --> 01:02:06,180
 +
than new who gave the Sermon on the
 +
 +
1310
 +
01:02:03,059 --> 01:02:07,680
 +
Mount it's only one in three knew it was
 +
 +
1311
 +
01:02:06,180 --> 01:02:10,410
 +
Jesus that gave the Sermon on the Mount
 +
 +
1312
 +
01:02:07,680 --> 01:02:12,450
 +
but 80 percent of the people in America
 +
 +
1313
 +
01:02:10,410 --> 01:02:16,859
 +
and almost everybody who smoked knew it
 +
 +
1314
 +
01:02:12,450 --> 01:02:18,900
 +
was dangerous so why don't they quit my
 +
 +
1315
 +
01:02:16,859 --> 01:02:21,690
 +
cardiologist I talked to a couple of
 +
 +
1316
 +
01:02:18,900 --> 01:02:26,369
 +
months ago said 300,000 Americans will
 +
 +
1317
 +
01:02:21,690 --> 01:02:28,589
 +
die this year from cardiovascular
 +
 +
1318
 +
01:02:26,369 --> 01:02:30,569
 +
disease that was easily preventable by
 +
 +
1319
 +
01:02:28,589 --> 01:02:31,980
 +
just changing that we're told by their
 +
 +
1320
 +
01:02:30,569 --> 01:02:34,680
 +
doctors that all I had to do is change
 +
 +
1321
 +
01:02:31,980 --> 01:02:37,319
 +
their diet and exercise patterns why not
 +
 +
1322
 +
01:02:34,680 --> 01:02:39,089
 +
they quit the reason is our nervous
 +
 +
1323
 +
01:02:37,319 --> 01:02:41,400
 +
system is not set up to be interested in
 +
 +
1324
 +
01:02:39,089 --> 01:02:44,490
 +
long-term events it's set up to be wary
 +
 +
1325
 +
01:02:41,400 --> 01:02:47,490
 +
of saber-tooth Tigers we love short
 +
 +
1326
 +
01:02:44,490 --> 01:02:51,390
 +
quick remember Jessica McClure little
 +
 +
1327
 +
01:02:47,490 --> 01:02:52,980
 +
girl in the well in Texas 58 hours she
 +
 +
1328
 +
01:02:51,390 --> 01:02:54,510
 +
was in there and many Americans watch
 +
 +
1329
 +
01:02:52,980 --> 01:02:56,940
 +
that almost continuously see what
 +
 +
1330
 +
01:02:54,510 --> 01:02:59,040
 +
happened during those 58 hours a hundred
 +
 +
1331
 +
01:02:56,940 --> 01:03:03,079
 +
and five thousand children in the world
 +
 +
1332
 +
01:02:59,040 --> 01:03:09,359
 +
died from preventable causes every year
 +
 +
1333
 +
01:03:03,079 --> 01:03:10,950
 +
in 94 in 93 there's a holocaust worth of
 +
 +
1334
 +
01:03:09,359 --> 01:03:14,970
 +
children dying from preventable causes
 +
 +
1335
 +
01:03:10,950 --> 01:03:17,160
 +
10 million dying from starvation and
 +
 +
1336
 +
01:03:14,970 --> 01:03:19,410
 +
dehydration and so forth we can't even
 +
 +
1337
 +
01:03:17,160 --> 01:03:21,299
 +
deal with it we can't imagine it and so
 +
 +
1338
 +
01:03:19,410 --> 01:03:24,270
 +
we fastened on to one little girl in a
 +
 +
1339
 +
01:03:21,299 --> 01:03:25,579
 +
well who wasn't even hurt right this is
 +
 +
1340
 +
01:03:24,270 --> 01:03:29,270
 +
nuts
 +
 +
1341
 +
01:03:25,579 --> 01:03:29,270
 +
this is not sane
 +
 +
1342
 +
01:03:33,000 --> 01:03:41,490
 +
our mind is tiny we look at an epidemic
 +
 +
1343
 +
01:03:37,470 --> 01:03:46,380
 +
when it's starting off through a little
 +
 +
1344
 +
01:03:41,490 --> 01:03:48,960
 +
keyhole you see nothing that's what
 +
 +
1345
 +
01:03:46,380 --> 01:03:52,530
 +
happened when aids was announced every
 +
 +
1346
 +
01:03:48,960 --> 01:03:56,520
 +
scientist in this country knew that if
 +
 +
1347
 +
01:03:52,530 --> 01:03:59,400
 +
you have a disease that is contagious
 +
 +
1348
 +
01:03:56,520 --> 01:04:02,970
 +
fatal and you don't have a cure you have
 +
 +
1349
 +
01:03:59,400 --> 01:04:05,730
 +
one of these guys but nobody could see
 +
 +
1350
 +
01:04:02,970 --> 01:04:06,840
 +
it and so nobody did anything you know
 +
 +
1351
 +
01:04:05,730 --> 01:04:10,440
 +
many people are going to die in Africa
 +
 +
1352
 +
01:04:06,840 --> 01:04:13,109
 +
in the next 12 years 35 million young
 +
 +
1353
 +
01:04:10,440 --> 01:04:14,130
 +
Vinney in the Pacific Rim 42 million
 +
 +
1354
 +
01:04:13,109 --> 01:04:16,619
 +
according to the World Health
 +
 +
1355
 +
01:04:14,130 --> 01:04:19,950
 +
Organization they're politicians still
 +
 +
1356
 +
01:04:16,619 --> 01:04:24,990
 +
don't get it because nobody is dying
 +
 +
1357
 +
01:04:19,950 --> 01:04:27,599
 +
like that now we can't use our common
 +
 +
1358
 +
01:04:24,990 --> 01:04:29,609
 +
sense to deal with the complexity of the
 +
 +
1359
 +
01:04:27,599 --> 01:04:31,349
 +
world that are in today we have to use
 +
 +
1360
 +
01:04:29,609 --> 01:04:35,340
 +
something beyond common sense we have to
 +
 +
1361
 +
01:04:31,349 --> 01:04:37,320
 +
use symbolic models of the world because
 +
 +
1362
 +
01:04:35,340 --> 01:04:40,950
 +
we have to do something before we just
 +
 +
1363
 +
01:04:37,320 --> 01:04:44,580
 +
walk off the cliff so the whole whole
 +
 +
1364
 +
01:04:40,950 --> 01:04:47,460
 +
problem that I'm talking about here has
 +
 +
1365
 +
01:04:44,580 --> 01:04:50,010
 +
to do with dealing with things that are
 +
 +
1366
 +
01:04:47,460 --> 01:04:53,280
 +
more complex than our common sense was
 +
 +
1367
 +
01:04:50,010 --> 01:04:55,710
 +
set up for problem solving which is what
 +
 +
1368
 +
01:04:53,280 --> 01:04:58,680
 +
these teach in school is a terrible way
 +
 +
1369
 +
01:04:55,710 --> 01:05:00,990
 +
of getting ahead mosquitoes
 +
 +
1370
 +
01:04:58,680 --> 01:05:02,940
 +
solve it with DDT wind up with more
 +
 +
1371
 +
01:05:00,990 --> 01:05:04,170
 +
mosquitoes because you're not just
 +
 +
1372
 +
01:05:02,940 --> 01:05:07,040
 +
working with mosquitoes you're working
 +
 +
1373
 +
01:05:04,170 --> 01:05:09,240
 +
with an ecology the DDT kills the fish
 +
 +
1374
 +
01:05:07,040 --> 01:05:11,130
 +
mosquitoes breed faster than the fish
 +
 +
1375
 +
01:05:09,240 --> 01:05:13,109
 +
the mosquitoes breed resistant strains
 +
 +
1376
 +
01:05:11,130 --> 01:05:15,119
 +
faster than the fish you wind up with
 +
 +
1377
 +
01:05:13,109 --> 01:05:17,339
 +
less fish and they were eating most of
 +
 +
1378
 +
01:05:15,119 --> 01:05:18,630
 +
the larvae of the mosquitoes and all of
 +
 +
1379
 +
01:05:17,339 --> 01:05:20,580
 +
a sudden you have more mosquitoes and
 +
 +
1380
 +
01:05:18,630 --> 01:05:23,220
 +
the DDT doesn't work anymore this is
 +
 +
1381
 +
01:05:20,580 --> 01:05:25,980
 +
what happens time after time because the
 +
 +
1382
 +
01:05:23,220 --> 01:05:27,359
 +
truth is is that we're involved in very
 +
 +
1383
 +
01:05:25,980 --> 01:05:29,250
 +
complex systems and you should be aware
 +
 +
1384
 +
01:05:27,359 --> 01:05:33,690
 +
of this I'm sure being in the banking
 +
 +
1385
 +
01:05:29,250 --> 01:05:34,920
 +
business it's nonlinear it's not
 +
 +
1386
 +
01:05:33,690 --> 01:05:36,510
 +
something that you can sit and turn a
 +
 +
1387
 +
01:05:34,920 --> 01:05:38,849
 +
couple of dots and know what's going to
 +
 +
1388
 +
01:05:36,510 --> 01:05:41,300
 +
happen like the Fed tries to do with the
 +
 +
1389
 +
01:05:38,849 --> 01:05:41,300
 +
economy
 +
 +
1390
 +
01:05:42,160 --> 01:05:47,960
 +
quality doesn't work three recent
 +
 +
1391
 +
01:05:45,830 --> 01:05:53,870
 +
winners of the Baldrige award General
 +
 +
1392
 +
01:05:47,960 --> 01:05:56,360
 +
Motors IBM and Dec why does equality
 +
 +
1393
 +
01:05:53,870 --> 01:05:58,460
 +
work because the only way you can get
 +
 +
1394
 +
01:05:56,360 --> 01:06:00,950
 +
Six Sigma good at something is to have
 +
 +
1395
 +
01:05:58,460 --> 01:06:02,510
 +
done it for a long time and in this
 +
 +
1396
 +
01:06:00,950 --> 01:06:05,570
 +
high-tech world that means you're
 +
 +
1397
 +
01:06:02,510 --> 01:06:07,640
 +
obsolete long before you ever get there
 +
 +
1398
 +
01:06:05,570 --> 01:06:09,850
 +
Bill Gates doesn't want Microsoft to
 +
 +
1399
 +
01:06:07,640 --> 01:06:12,230
 +
ever get Six Sigma good at what they do
 +
 +
1400
 +
01:06:09,850 --> 01:06:15,850
 +
that's not the thing what you have to be
 +
 +
1401
 +
01:06:12,230 --> 01:06:18,110
 +
is be fitted to the times as they are
 +
 +
1402
 +
01:06:15,850 --> 01:06:19,670
 +
not getting really you can only get
 +
 +
1403
 +
01:06:18,110 --> 01:06:20,860
 +
really great at something if it's not
 +
 +
1404
 +
01:06:19,670 --> 01:06:23,630
 +
going to change on you
 +
 +
1405
 +
01:06:20,860 --> 01:06:29,570
 +
so total quality management is a farce
 +
 +
1406
 +
01:06:23,630 --> 01:06:32,330
 +
in high tech arenas so coming back you
 +
 +
1407
 +
01:06:29,570 --> 01:06:33,860
 +
have to look at McLuhan again I don't
 +
 +
1408
 +
01:06:32,330 --> 01:06:36,200
 +
know who discovered water but it wasn't
 +
 +
1409
 +
01:06:33,860 --> 01:06:43,220
 +
a fish we have to try and make that work
 +
 +
1410
 +
01:06:36,200 --> 01:06:46,520
 +
for us this time I'm going to actually
 +
 +
1411
 +
01:06:43,220 --> 01:06:49,760
 +
going to skip over the video and just go
 +
 +
1412
 +
01:06:46,520 --> 01:06:52,730
 +
to this so the trick behind this stuff
 +
 +
1413
 +
01:06:49,760 --> 01:06:54,500
 +
is you can only learn to see when you
 +
 +
1414
 +
01:06:52,730 --> 01:06:58,730
 +
realize you're blind you have to admit
 +
 +
1415
 +
01:06:54,500 --> 01:07:00,370
 +
it this is what scientists do in order
 +
 +
1416
 +
01:06:58,730 --> 01:07:03,680
 +
to deal with science you have to ignore
 +
 +
1417
 +
01:07:00,370 --> 01:07:05,540
 +
what your hands tell you about touching
 +
 +
1418
 +
01:07:03,680 --> 01:07:08,420
 +
things what your eyes tell you about the
 +
 +
1419
 +
01:07:05,540 --> 01:07:10,820
 +
world and you have to try and dig deeper
 +
 +
1420
 +
01:07:08,420 --> 01:07:14,710
 +
than what your senses and common sense
 +
 +
1421
 +
01:07:10,820 --> 01:07:14,710
 +
are telling you it is really hard to do
 +
 +
1422
 +
01:07:15,220 --> 01:07:18,830
 +
so one of things you can do is you can
 +
 +
1423
 +
01:07:17,210 --> 01:07:23,660
 +
make a better goldfish ball this is what
 +
 +
1424
 +
01:07:18,830 --> 01:07:26,570
 +
Wells Fargo should do difference between
 +
 +
1425
 +
01:07:23,660 --> 01:07:28,100
 +
four hundred years ago coming out of the
 +
 +
1426
 +
01:07:26,570 --> 01:07:30,770
 +
Middle Ages and the Renaissance and now
 +
 +
1427
 +
01:07:28,100 --> 01:07:32,180
 +
is that we're now self-conscious about
 +
 +
1428
 +
01:07:30,770 --> 01:07:35,480
 +
these goldfish bowls and we can
 +
 +
1429
 +
01:07:32,180 --> 01:07:37,820
 +
structure them when you do something
 +
 +
1430
 +
01:07:35,480 --> 01:07:40,640
 +
like an programming language you're
 +
 +
1431
 +
01:07:37,820 --> 01:07:42,050
 +
making a goldfish bowl for people it's a
 +
 +
1432
 +
01:07:40,640 --> 01:07:45,140
 +
paradigm it's a collection of beliefs
 +
 +
1433
 +
01:07:42,050 --> 01:07:47,360
 +
it's a way of doing things these things
 +
 +
1434
 +
01:07:45,140 --> 01:07:48,980
 +
are incredibly powerful because of the
 +
 +
1435
 +
01:07:47,360 --> 01:07:51,350
 +
way our minds work we can't change the
 +
 +
1436
 +
01:07:48,980 --> 01:07:53,690
 +
way our minds work in any direct way but
 +
 +
1437
 +
01:07:51,350 --> 01:07:55,819
 +
we can change the context in which they
 +
 +
1438
 +
01:07:53,690 --> 01:07:59,970
 +
do work
 +
 +
1439
 +
01:07:55,819 --> 01:08:02,240
 +
we see what we know if you take most
 +
 +
1440
 +
01:07:59,970 --> 01:08:04,799
 +
people who did it drawing like this
 +
 +
1441
 +
01:08:02,240 --> 01:08:07,440
 +
would be thrown out of art class in fact
 +
 +
1442
 +
01:08:04,799 --> 01:08:09,299
 +
this person was this is what they did
 +
 +
1443
 +
01:08:07,440 --> 01:08:12,359
 +
after just a couple of months later a
 +
 +
1444
 +
01:08:09,299 --> 01:08:16,889
 +
self-portrait of themselves and this is
 +
 +
1445
 +
01:08:12,359 --> 01:08:19,859
 +
another portrait done by the person who
 +
 +
1446
 +
01:08:16,889 --> 01:08:23,159
 +
did this picture on the top after about
 +
 +
1447
 +
01:08:19,859 --> 01:08:26,790
 +
three months in fact you can become an
 +
 +
1448
 +
01:08:23,159 --> 01:08:30,659
 +
incredibly good artist in almost any
 +
 +
1449
 +
01:08:26,790 --> 01:08:32,370
 +
area in just a few months our ability to
 +
 +
1450
 +
01:08:30,659 --> 01:08:33,920
 +
learn things is much much greater than
 +
 +
1451
 +
01:08:32,370 --> 01:08:38,690
 +
we think
 +
 +
1452
 +
01:08:33,920 --> 01:08:40,679
 +
in fact most people are more ignorant
 +
 +
1453
 +
01:08:38,690 --> 01:08:42,359
 +
most people think of themselves as
 +
 +
1454
 +
01:08:40,679 --> 01:08:44,850
 +
stupid but they're actually smarter than
 +
 +
1455
 +
01:08:42,359 --> 01:08:46,199
 +
they think they are the problem is that
 +
 +
1456
 +
01:08:44,850 --> 01:08:49,500
 +
most people know less than they think
 +
 +
1457
 +
01:08:46,199 --> 01:08:51,210
 +
they do all right so we're constrained
 +
 +
1458
 +
01:08:49,500 --> 01:08:53,790
 +
much more by what we know about the
 +
 +
1459
 +
01:08:51,210 --> 01:08:56,310
 +
world than what our latent abilities are
 +
 +
1460
 +
01:08:53,790 --> 01:08:57,480
 +
we can make these multiple mentalities
 +
 +
1461
 +
01:08:56,310 --> 01:09:01,529
 +
which are always fighting each other
 +
 +
1462
 +
01:08:57,480 --> 01:09:04,259
 +
work for us for instance this is this is
 +
 +
1463
 +
01:09:01,529 --> 01:09:10,500
 +
sorry this is almost illegible but this
 +
 +
1464
 +
01:09:04,259 --> 01:09:11,969
 +
is a coherent essay a page long done by
 +
 +
1465
 +
01:09:10,500 --> 01:09:17,040
 +
a five-year-old and she'd only been
 +
 +
1466
 +
01:09:11,969 --> 01:09:20,730
 +
writing for about three months three or
 +
 +
1467
 +
01:09:17,040 --> 01:09:23,069
 +
four months of course second and third
 +
 +
1468
 +
01:09:20,730 --> 01:09:25,949
 +
graders often don't write very coherent
 +
 +
1469
 +
01:09:23,069 --> 01:09:27,779
 +
essays so how do how did the teacher get
 +
 +
1470
 +
01:09:25,949 --> 01:09:30,179
 +
her to write this coherent essays well
 +
 +
1471
 +
01:09:27,779 --> 01:09:32,969
 +
it happens that children especially
 +
 +
1472
 +
01:09:30,179 --> 01:09:35,370
 +
can't sequence symbolically the symbolic
 +
 +
1473
 +
01:09:32,969 --> 01:09:37,080
 +
part of their mind isn't set up for
 +
 +
1474
 +
01:09:35,370 --> 01:09:39,449
 +
sequencing but they can do really good
 +
 +
1475
 +
01:09:37,080 --> 01:09:41,699
 +
sequencing iconically so what the
 +
 +
1476
 +
01:09:39,449 --> 01:09:44,609
 +
teacher had the child do is to draw a
 +
 +
1477
 +
01:09:41,699 --> 01:09:47,190
 +
movie of the story she had in mind all
 +
 +
1478
 +
01:09:44,609 --> 01:09:48,839
 +
children even we've tested children down
 +
 +
1479
 +
01:09:47,190 --> 01:09:53,310
 +
to the age of even three and a half and
 +
 +
1480
 +
01:09:48,839 --> 01:09:54,860
 +
four can draw a coherent storyboards try
 +
 +
1481
 +
01:09:53,310 --> 01:09:57,060
 +
this with your children
 +
 +
1482
 +
01:09:54,860 --> 01:09:58,830
 +
you'll also notice something really
 +
 +
1483
 +
01:09:57,060 --> 01:10:00,300
 +
strange and wonderful when they're
 +
 +
1484
 +
01:09:58,830 --> 01:10:03,120
 +
drawing the storyboard they can draw
 +
 +
1485
 +
01:10:00,300 --> 01:10:05,489
 +
better than when they draw a regular
 +
 +
1486
 +
01:10:03,120 --> 01:10:07,840
 +
drawing there's something about the
 +
 +
1487
 +
01:10:05,489 --> 01:10:11,180
 +
focusing of it we still don't understand
 +
 +
1488
 +
01:10:07,840 --> 01:10:12,740
 +
then having done a coherent story board
 +
 +
1489
 +
01:10:11,180 --> 01:10:15,140
 +
over there the teacher then says write
 +
 +
1490
 +
01:10:12,740 --> 01:10:17,480
 +
one or two sentences about each of the
 +
 +
1491
 +
01:10:15,140 --> 01:10:19,100
 +
panels and when the child does that they
 +
 +
1492
 +
01:10:17,480 --> 01:10:21,080
 +
get a coherent essay that has a
 +
 +
1493
 +
01:10:19,100 --> 01:10:27,200
 +
beginning middle and end now is that
 +
 +
1494
 +
01:10:21,080 --> 01:10:29,380
 +
cheating is it I don't think so I mean
 +
 +
1495
 +
01:10:27,200 --> 01:10:32,840
 +
if that's cheating calculus is cheating
 +
 +
1496
 +
01:10:29,380 --> 01:10:36,230
 +
right the whole idea is we have to cheat
 +
 +
1497
 +
01:10:32,840 --> 01:10:40,130
 +
we're not smart enough not to get by
 +
 +
1498
 +
01:10:36,230 --> 01:10:47,260
 +
without finding these scaffolds we can
 +
 +
1499
 +
01:10:40,130 --> 01:10:47,260
 +
work our buns off in the wrong context
 +
 +
1500
 +
01:10:48,370 --> 01:10:55,280
 +
well three mentalities how about a way
 +
 +
1501
 +
01:10:51,770 --> 01:10:58,280
 +
of grabbing things for user-interface
 +
 +
1502
 +
01:10:55,280 --> 01:11:00,860
 +
how about a way of using our ability to
 +
 +
1503
 +
01:10:58,280 --> 01:11:03,770
 +
remember things in terms of images and
 +
 +
1504
 +
01:11:00,860 --> 01:11:05,690
 +
how about a way of dealing with symbolic
 +
 +
1505
 +
01:11:03,770 --> 01:11:06,850
 +
renderings of those things and if you
 +
 +
1506
 +
01:11:05,690 --> 01:11:10,670
 +
put those together
 +
 +
1507
 +
01:11:06,850 --> 01:11:12,140
 +
you get this machine in this interface
 +
 +
1508
 +
01:11:10,670 --> 01:11:14,540
 +
that's how it came about
 +
 +
1509
 +
01:11:12,140 --> 01:11:17,180
 +
we took a psychological model about the
 +
 +
1510
 +
01:11:14,540 --> 01:11:18,650
 +
way people actually seem to think spend
 +
 +
1511
 +
01:11:17,180 --> 01:11:21,020
 +
a couple of years trying to understand
 +
 +
1512
 +
01:11:18,650 --> 01:11:23,870
 +
it in the terms of communication between
 +
 +
1513
 +
01:11:21,020 --> 01:11:26,360
 +
human and machine and came up with a
 +
 +
1514
 +
01:11:23,870 --> 01:11:29,540
 +
much better way of doing a user
 +
 +
1515
 +
01:11:26,360 --> 01:11:35,270
 +
interface so the whole point here is
 +
 +
1516
 +
01:11:29,540 --> 01:11:36,710
 +
that by changing the context in which
 +
 +
1517
 +
01:11:35,270 --> 01:11:40,190
 +
you're in which you're thinking about
 +
 +
1518
 +
01:11:36,710 --> 01:11:41,810
 +
things you can change the results not in
 +
 +
1519
 +
01:11:40,190 --> 01:11:44,990
 +
quantitative ways but in qualitative
 +
 +
1520
 +
01:11:41,810 --> 01:11:48,020
 +
ways so the strongest weapon that you
 +
 +
1521
 +
01:11:44,990 --> 01:11:51,280
 +
have for exploring the future is the one
 +
 +
1522
 +
01:11:48,020 --> 01:11:54,400
 +
between your ears providing it's loaded
 +
 +
1523
 +
01:11:51,280 --> 01:11:54,400
 +
thank you
 +
 +
1524
 +
01:12:05,710 --> 01:12:11,260
 +
okay
 +
 +
1525
 +
01:12:07,960 --> 01:12:18,140
 +
now we have time for some some questions
 +
 +
1526
 +
01:12:11,260 --> 01:12:24,130
 +
and I love to answer questions so please
 +
 +
1527
 +
01:12:18,140 --> 01:12:24,130
 +
don't be shy yes
 +
 +
1528
 +
01:12:36,459 --> 01:12:42,519
 +
well I think I think everybody heard
 +
 +
1529
 +
01:12:39,159 --> 01:12:47,349
 +
that didn't they basically is saying
 +
 +
1530
 +
01:12:42,519 --> 01:12:49,570
 +
from experiences that I've had being on
 +
 +
1531
 +
01:12:47,349 --> 01:12:52,539
 +
advisory boards and so forth and talking
 +
 +
1532
 +
01:12:49,570 --> 01:12:53,320
 +
to large companies what mistakes do
 +
 +
1533
 +
01:12:52,539 --> 01:12:56,159
 +
people make
 +
 +
1534
 +
01:12:53,320 --> 01:12:59,880
 +
well mistake is the wrong word because
 +
 +
1535
 +
01:12:56,159 --> 01:13:05,170
 +
the it's very it's quite rare for
 +
 +
1536
 +
01:12:59,880 --> 01:13:07,059
 +
companies to actually make mistakes what
 +
 +
1537
 +
01:13:05,170 --> 01:13:10,599
 +
they do is to do things perfectly
 +
 +
1538
 +
01:13:07,059 --> 01:13:12,130
 +
logically in the wrong place right and
 +
 +
1539
 +
01:13:10,599 --> 01:13:15,939
 +
those aren't really mistakes they're
 +
 +
1540
 +
01:13:12,130 --> 01:13:18,570
 +
ill-chosen paths so the one of the major
 +
 +
1541
 +
01:13:15,939 --> 01:13:22,449
 +
things that companies don't do is to
 +
 +
1542
 +
01:13:18,570 --> 01:13:23,979
 +
even look at this country as a model
 +
 +
1543
 +
01:13:22,449 --> 01:13:28,780
 +
this country doesn't have zillions of
 +
 +
1544
 +
01:13:23,979 --> 01:13:31,300
 +
rules compared to say Germany it has a
 +
 +
1545
 +
01:13:28,780 --> 01:13:35,199
 +
constitution the constitution is kind of
 +
 +
1546
 +
01:13:31,300 --> 01:13:41,469
 +
the DNA and it's designed to provide
 +
 +
1547
 +
01:13:35,199 --> 01:13:44,769
 +
maximum diversity and still allow us to
 +
 +
1548
 +
01:13:41,469 --> 01:13:46,590
 +
argue with each other right science what
 +
 +
1549
 +
01:13:44,769 --> 01:13:50,709
 +
happened when science was invented is
 +
 +
1550
 +
01:13:46,590 --> 01:13:52,900
 +
people basically started saying this is
 +
 +
1551
 +
01:13:50,709 --> 01:13:56,650
 +
coming out of the 15th and 16th
 +
 +
1552
 +
01:13:52,900 --> 01:13:59,289
 +
centuries was saying when Galileo's
 +
 +
1553
 +
01:13:56,650 --> 01:14:02,439
 +
telescope showed the four moons of
 +
 +
1554
 +
01:13:59,289 --> 01:14:05,559
 +
Jupiter orbiting around a center in the
 +
 +
1555
 +
01:14:02,439 --> 01:14:09,969
 +
heavens that wasn't the earth it toppled
 +
 +
1556
 +
01:14:05,559 --> 01:14:12,939
 +
the church's cosmology because this was
 +
 +
1557
 +
01:14:09,969 --> 01:14:18,219
 +
dogma right this was actually the Word
 +
 +
1558
 +
01:14:12,939 --> 01:14:19,689
 +
of God that there was only one Center of
 +
 +
1559
 +
01:14:18,219 --> 01:14:22,119
 +
motion in the universe and that was the
 +
 +
1560
 +
01:14:19,689 --> 01:14:23,889
 +
earth so that was devastating basically
 +
 +
1561
 +
01:14:22,119 --> 01:14:26,139
 +
the the conclusion that people came from
 +
 +
1562
 +
01:14:23,889 --> 01:14:28,689
 +
that is we can't get involved in dogma
 +
 +
1563
 +
01:14:26,139 --> 01:14:30,550
 +
if we're going to get ahead the problem
 +
 +
1564
 +
01:14:28,689 --> 01:14:32,349
 +
is if you don't get involved in dogma
 +
 +
1565
 +
01:14:30,550 --> 01:14:35,229
 +
how can you do anything all right isn't
 +
 +
1566
 +
01:14:32,349 --> 01:14:37,989
 +
everybody's opinion the same right so
 +
 +
1567
 +
01:14:35,229 --> 01:14:39,459
 +
this is misplaced democracy everybody's
 +
 +
1568
 +
01:14:37,989 --> 01:14:41,110
 +
opinion is say no everybody's opinion
 +
 +
1569
 +
01:14:39,459 --> 01:14:42,939
 +
isn't the same so how do you resolve
 +
 +
1570
 +
01:14:41,110 --> 01:14:45,729
 +
that the way he resolved it is setting
 +
 +
1571
 +
01:14:42,939 --> 01:14:48,070
 +
up a system for argument science is a
 +
 +
1572
 +
01:14:45,729 --> 01:14:49,809
 +
system for argument as Richard Feynman
 +
 +
1573
 +
01:14:48,070 --> 01:14:50,230
 +
likes to say science means you don't
 +
 +
1574
 +
01:14:49,809 --> 01:14:53,320
 +
have to
 +
 +
1575
 +
01:14:50,230 --> 01:14:56,310
 +
trust the experts right because there's
 +
 +
1576
 +
01:14:53,320 --> 01:15:00,370
 +
no scientific claim that you can't test
 +
 +
1577
 +
01:14:56,310 --> 01:15:02,680
 +
you don't have to believe anybody but if
 +
 +
1578
 +
01:15:00,370 --> 01:15:05,380
 +
you want to play in science you have to
 +
 +
1579
 +
01:15:02,680 --> 01:15:07,630
 +
be tough on the argument so what most
 +
 +
1580
 +
01:15:05,380 --> 01:15:10,750
 +
companies don't do is to set up a
 +
 +
1581
 +
01:15:07,630 --> 01:15:12,130
 +
situation where they can argue well most
 +
 +
1582
 +
01:15:10,750 --> 01:15:15,600
 +
companies are terrible at arguing
 +
 +
1583
 +
01:15:12,130 --> 01:15:18,100
 +
because they take arguing personally
 +
 +
1584
 +
01:15:15,600 --> 01:15:20,110
 +
right and that is no case and so what
 +
 +
1585
 +
01:15:18,100 --> 01:15:23,350
 +
you get is party lines and dogma and all
 +
 +
1586
 +
01:15:20,110 --> 01:15:24,610
 +
that the paraphernalia of the past what
 +
 +
1587
 +
01:15:23,350 --> 01:15:28,660
 +
you need to do is to have a way of
 +
 +
1588
 +
01:15:24,610 --> 01:15:30,130
 +
separating out personalities from the
 +
 +
1589
 +
01:15:28,660 --> 01:15:32,020
 +
fact that there are very difficult
 +
 +
1590
 +
01:15:30,130 --> 01:15:34,720
 +
issues that need to be feared long and
 +
 +
1591
 +
01:15:32,020 --> 01:15:36,790
 +
hard and they have to be taken down to
 +
 +
1592
 +
01:15:34,720 --> 01:15:38,890
 +
the essence or else you're just going to
 +
 +
1593
 +
01:15:36,790 --> 01:15:41,500
 +
get another wave another five year plan
 +
 +
1594
 +
01:15:38,890 --> 01:15:43,630
 +
like the Russians used to do yielding
 +
 +
1595
 +
01:15:41,500 --> 01:15:45,850
 +
nothing because they refuse to look at
 +
 +
1596
 +
01:15:43,630 --> 01:15:48,640
 +
the basis of Marxism and ask whether
 +
 +
1597
 +
01:15:45,850 --> 01:15:49,930
 +
there was anything there or not right so
 +
 +
1598
 +
01:15:48,640 --> 01:15:52,630
 +
I think the thing is is to try and
 +
 +
1599
 +
01:15:49,930 --> 01:15:54,850
 +
convert from a dogmatic hierarchical
 +
 +
1600
 +
01:15:52,630 --> 01:15:56,940
 +
system because if you think about
 +
 +
1601
 +
01:15:54,850 --> 01:16:00,610
 +
American businesses are distressingly
 +
 +
1602
 +
01:15:56,940 --> 01:16:02,050
 +
undemocratic fact I think of them as
 +
 +
1603
 +
01:16:00,610 --> 01:16:07,600
 +
being like hunting and gathering
 +
 +
1604
 +
01:16:02,050 --> 01:16:09,130
 +
societies as compared to agriculture my
 +
 +
1605
 +
01:16:07,600 --> 01:16:11,100
 +
American businesses try to put their
 +
 +
1606
 +
01:16:09,130 --> 01:16:15,489
 +
competitors out of business
 +
 +
1607
 +
01:16:11,100 --> 01:16:17,170
 +
whereas farmers never do why because a
 +
 +
1608
 +
01:16:15,489 --> 01:16:19,780
 +
farmer needs all the other farmers to
 +
 +
1609
 +
01:16:17,170 --> 01:16:22,060
 +
come help him build his barn so farmers
 +
 +
1610
 +
01:16:19,780 --> 01:16:24,370
 +
do limited competition on Saturdays they
 +
 +
1611
 +
01:16:22,060 --> 01:16:25,510
 +
go out and help each other on Tuesdays
 +
 +
1612
 +
01:16:24,370 --> 01:16:27,940
 +
and they spend the rest of the time
 +
 +
1613
 +
01:16:25,510 --> 01:16:29,560
 +
trying to get their farm going a lot so
 +
 +
1614
 +
01:16:27,940 --> 01:16:31,150
 +
a lot of agricultural metaphors have
 +
 +
1615
 +
01:16:29,560 --> 01:16:33,610
 +
never come into business in any strong
 +
 +
1616
 +
01:16:31,150 --> 01:16:35,200
 +
way one of the ones I used at lunch is
 +
 +
1617
 +
01:16:33,610 --> 01:16:37,120
 +
an agriculture you need to let your
 +
 +
1618
 +
01:16:35,200 --> 01:16:39,130
 +
fields even in the Bible it says let
 +
 +
1619
 +
01:16:37,120 --> 01:16:42,580
 +
your fields lie fallow one year and
 +
 +
1620
 +
01:16:39,130 --> 01:16:45,280
 +
seven that means you're giving up 14
 +
 +
1621
 +
01:16:42,580 --> 01:16:47,920
 +
percent of your return in order to be
 +
 +
1622
 +
01:16:45,280 --> 01:16:50,890
 +
there 20 years from now right that's a
 +
 +
1623
 +
01:16:47,920 --> 01:16:53,500
 +
research budget 14 percent that's what
 +
 +
1624
 +
01:16:50,890 --> 01:16:54,910
 +
it means American businesses can't
 +
 +
1625
 +
01:16:53,500 --> 01:16:57,460
 +
understand they're always top soil
 +
 +
1626
 +
01:16:54,910 --> 01:16:59,440
 +
stripping and what do you get when you
 +
 +
1627
 +
01:16:57,460 --> 01:17:01,770
 +
topsoil strip you get a Dust Bowl and
 +
 +
1628
 +
01:16:59,440 --> 01:17:04,480
 +
that is what we have got
 +
 +
1629
 +
01:17:01,770 --> 01:17:06,880
 +
so the only way these changes can happen
 +
 +
1630
 +
01:17:04,480 --> 01:17:11,110
 +
is if the reward system has to be
 +
 +
1631
 +
01:17:06,880 --> 01:17:14,410
 +
changed by the top-most management to
 +
 +
1632
 +
01:17:11,110 --> 01:17:18,180
 +
investing some part in the future in a
 +
 +
1633
 +
01:17:14,410 --> 01:17:21,719
 +
serious way not in a token nice way and
 +
 +
1634
 +
01:17:18,180 --> 01:17:25,680
 +
to I believe that people will not change
 +
 +
1635
 +
01:17:21,719 --> 01:17:29,199
 +
unless there is some reward for failure
 +
 +
1636
 +
01:17:25,680 --> 01:17:32,920
 +
tell you a funny story I was I gave a
 +
 +
1637
 +
01:17:29,199 --> 01:17:35,590
 +
talk at the Stanford 25th anniversary of
 +
 +
1638
 +
01:17:32,920 --> 01:17:38,980
 +
computer science and there 75 Silicon
 +
 +
1639
 +
01:17:35,590 --> 01:17:43,120
 +
Valley companies in the room and I was
 +
 +
1640
 +
01:17:38,980 --> 01:17:44,350
 +
talking about told the story at Xerox
 +
 +
1641
 +
01:17:43,120 --> 01:17:46,510
 +
PARC when I when I first did the
 +
 +
1642
 +
01:17:44,350 --> 01:17:49,260
 +
overlapping window interface I use a
 +
 +
1643
 +
01:17:46,510 --> 01:17:52,690
 +
demo up to various Xerox executives and
 +
 +
1644
 +
01:17:49,260 --> 01:17:54,219
 +
one guy I went shoe and showed how the
 +
 +
1645
 +
01:17:52,690 --> 01:17:57,340
 +
windows came up and this is so much
 +
 +
1646
 +
01:17:54,219 --> 01:18:00,219
 +
easier and expands the effective area of
 +
 +
1647
 +
01:17:57,340 --> 01:18:01,960
 +
the display and this and that blah blah
 +
 +
1648
 +
01:18:00,219 --> 01:18:03,760
 +
blah and at the end as I said what's
 +
 +
1649
 +
01:18:01,960 --> 01:18:06,760
 +
really great about this stuff is it only
 +
 +
1650
 +
01:18:03,760 --> 01:18:09,760
 +
has a 20% chance of success we're taking
 +
 +
1651
 +
01:18:06,760 --> 01:18:11,110
 +
risk just like you asked us to he looked
 +
 +
1652
 +
01:18:09,760 --> 01:18:13,920
 +
at me and he said boy that's great but
 +
 +
1653
 +
01:18:11,110 --> 01:18:13,920
 +
just make sure it works
 +
 +
1654
 +
01:18:14,169 --> 01:18:19,719
 +
right the American businessman is idea
 +
 +
1655
 +
01:18:16,869 --> 01:18:23,229
 +
of risk being that 20 percent 100
 +
 +
1656
 +
01:18:19,719 --> 01:18:26,139
 +
percent of the time but it isn't it's
 +
 +
1657
 +
01:18:23,229 --> 01:18:29,769
 +
like baseball Ty Cobb's lifetime batting
 +
 +
1658
 +
01:18:26,139 --> 01:18:33,130
 +
average was 367 two out of three times
 +
 +
1659
 +
01:18:29,769 --> 01:18:34,840
 +
he made out right they have to invest
 +
 +
1660
 +
01:18:33,130 --> 01:18:36,639
 +
when you're doing things that involve
 +
 +
1661
 +
01:18:34,840 --> 01:18:38,169
 +
some risk it's not possible to hit a
 +
 +
1662
 +
01:18:36,639 --> 01:18:40,869
 +
baseball perfectly every time it's a
 +
 +
1663
 +
01:18:38,169 --> 01:18:42,999
 +
very hard thing to do it's not possible
 +
 +
1664
 +
01:18:40,869 --> 01:18:44,559
 +
to be right every time but the thing is
 +
 +
1665
 +
01:18:42,999 --> 01:18:45,909
 +
you can assure yourself of being wrong
 +
 +
1666
 +
01:18:44,559 --> 01:18:47,469
 +
every time if you don't do the
 +
 +
1667
 +
01:18:45,909 --> 01:18:52,559
 +
investment because then you just wind up
 +
 +
1668
 +
01:18:47,469 --> 01:18:52,559
 +
with a dust ball another question yes
 +
 +
1669
 +
01:18:54,659 --> 01:18:58,809
 +
first of all I was really delighted to
 +
 +
1670
 +
01:18:56,979 --> 01:19:02,860
 +
hear you talk about Doug Engelbart oh
 +
 +
1671
 +
01:18:58,809 --> 01:19:04,659
 +
yeah me too trite but I'm a fan one of
 +
 +
1672
 +
01:19:02,860 --> 01:19:06,849
 +
the things that he's recently been
 +
 +
1673
 +
01:19:04,659 --> 01:19:09,429
 +
working on is what he calls
 +
 +
1674
 +
01:19:06,849 --> 01:19:12,399
 +
bootstrapping corporations into the 21st
 +
 +
1675
 +
01:19:09,429 --> 01:19:15,729
 +
century yeah and you touched on this you
 +
 +
1676
 +
01:19:12,399 --> 01:19:17,709
 +
talked about how businesses can improve
 +
 +
1677
 +
01:19:15,729 --> 01:19:20,169
 +
themselves and one of the things he was
 +
 +
1678
 +
01:19:17,709 --> 01:19:22,090
 +
trying to get across without a key to
 +
 +
1679
 +
01:19:20,169 --> 01:19:24,280
 +
the long-term vitality of an
 +
 +
1680
 +
01:19:22,090 --> 01:19:27,909
 +
organization is to get better and better
 +
 +
1681
 +
01:19:24,280 --> 01:19:30,300
 +
at improving itself and I was curious
 +
 +
1682
 +
01:19:27,909 --> 01:19:33,840
 +
what you thought about his concept of
 +
 +
1683
 +
01:19:30,300 --> 01:19:37,090
 +
for example most Fargo being a bank
 +
 +
1684
 +
01:19:33,840 --> 01:19:38,949
 +
naturally keeps things very private from
 +
 +
1685
 +
01:19:37,090 --> 01:19:43,149
 +
Bank of America and other competitors
 +
 +
1686
 +
01:19:38,949 --> 01:19:45,189
 +
one of the engl Barts positions is that
 +
 +
1687
 +
01:19:43,149 --> 01:19:47,469
 +
we should actually be collaborating with
 +
 +
1688
 +
01:19:45,189 --> 01:19:49,659
 +
one another yeah to improve the process
 +
 +
1689
 +
01:19:47,469 --> 01:19:50,829
 +
for everyone so I'd like to hear your
 +
 +
1690
 +
01:19:49,659 --> 01:19:54,719
 +
thoughts on them yeah well the trick
 +
 +
1691
 +
01:19:50,829 --> 01:19:54,719
 +
there of course our antitrust laws
 +
 +
1692
 +
01:19:56,130 --> 01:20:04,170
 +
so we have a harder time doing caresses
 +
 +
1693
 +
01:19:58,740 --> 01:20:06,360
 +
than the Japanese do but basically I
 +
 +
1694
 +
01:20:04,170 --> 01:20:09,360
 +
mean here is a really you can throw
 +
 +
1695
 +
01:20:06,360 --> 01:20:10,980
 +
tomatoes if you want but I mean the the
 +
 +
1696
 +
01:20:09,360 --> 01:20:13,850
 +
crudest statement I can think of is that
 +
 +
1697
 +
01:20:10,980 --> 01:20:17,790
 +
in science you want to help your buddy
 +
 +
1698
 +
01:20:13,850 --> 01:20:20,510
 +
your competitor because there was a way
 +
 +
1699
 +
01:20:17,790 --> 01:20:24,120
 +
of doing it and getting credit for it
 +
 +
1700
 +
01:20:20,510 --> 01:20:26,700
 +
namely they they get really shat on if
 +
 +
1701
 +
01:20:24,120 --> 01:20:29,640
 +
they don't put your name as a source of
 +
 +
1702
 +
01:20:26,700 --> 01:20:32,400
 +
this part of the idea so in science you
 +
 +
1703
 +
01:20:29,640 --> 01:20:34,440
 +
tell everybody everything and there's a
 +
 +
1704
 +
01:20:32,400 --> 01:20:38,280
 +
way of not losing in the reward system
 +
 +
1705
 +
01:20:34,440 --> 01:20:41,460
 +
and science has been one of the fastest
 +
 +
1706
 +
01:20:38,280 --> 01:20:45,810
 +
growing things in business the idea is
 +
 +
1707
 +
01:20:41,460 --> 01:20:47,370
 +
let's screw our buddies because
 +
 +
1708
 +
01:20:45,810 --> 01:20:48,780
 +
especially in the short term when we're
 +
 +
1709
 +
01:20:47,370 --> 01:20:51,030
 +
measuring in the short term we can
 +
 +
1710
 +
01:20:48,780 --> 01:20:53,310
 +
always see little ways of cheating in
 +
 +
1711
 +
01:20:51,030 --> 01:20:56,940
 +
order to make the short term better and
 +
 +
1712
 +
01:20:53,310 --> 01:20:59,580
 +
if there's no long term theory then I
 +
 +
1713
 +
01:20:56,940 --> 01:21:01,290
 +
think there's a there's a super problem
 +
 +
1714
 +
01:20:59,580 --> 01:21:03,780
 +
I mean the truth is the companies do
 +
 +
1715
 +
01:21:01,290 --> 01:21:05,910
 +
collaborate by for instance sending
 +
 +
1716
 +
01:21:03,780 --> 01:21:08,300
 +
people to standards committees of
 +
 +
1717
 +
01:21:05,910 --> 01:21:11,970
 +
various kinds there's a whole layer of
 +
 +
1718
 +
01:21:08,300 --> 01:21:14,880
 +
company Apple is involved in quite a
 +
 +
1719
 +
01:21:11,970 --> 01:21:18,570
 +
number of consortiums there are 50 and
 +
 +
1720
 +
01:21:14,880 --> 01:21:21,180
 +
60 companies big and they include people
 +
 +
1721
 +
01:21:18,570 --> 01:21:22,590
 +
that are competitors of each other but
 +
 +
1722
 +
01:21:21,180 --> 01:21:24,840
 +
for instance everybody knows that unless
 +
 +
1723
 +
01:21:22,590 --> 01:21:27,360
 +
we get network standards worked out in a
 +
 +
1724
 +
01:21:24,840 --> 01:21:29,160
 +
reasonable way and we have a theory of
 +
 +
1725
 +
01:21:27,360 --> 01:21:30,360
 +
object protocols that work out where
 +
 +
1726
 +
01:21:29,160 --> 01:21:33,090
 +
it's actually going to hold things up
 +
 +
1727
 +
01:21:30,360 --> 01:21:34,710
 +
for another decade and so there's this
 +
 +
1728
 +
01:21:33,090 --> 01:21:37,860
 +
whole thing about how can we get the
 +
 +
1729
 +
01:21:34,710 --> 01:21:39,660
 +
state-of-the-art stuff here and not just
 +
 +
1730
 +
01:21:37,860 --> 01:21:42,990
 +
try and beat everybody else to market
 +
 +
1731
 +
01:21:39,660 --> 01:21:44,010
 +
but have some ecological theory now
 +
 +
1732
 +
01:21:42,990 --> 01:21:46,650
 +
angle Bart
 +
 +
1733
 +
01:21:44,010 --> 01:21:49,350
 +
by the way invented the term
 +
 +
1734
 +
01:21:46,650 --> 01:21:52,890
 +
bootstrapping and invented it back in
 +
 +
1735
 +
01:21:49,350 --> 01:21:55,500
 +
the 60s and he was giving that talk back
 +
 +
1736
 +
01:21:52,890 --> 01:21:57,180
 +
when I first met him which is a 1966
 +
 +
1737
 +
01:21:55,500 --> 01:21:59,580
 +
so he's been constantly trying to do
 +
 +
1738
 +
01:21:57,180 --> 01:22:00,900
 +
this and he it's a similar talk affects
 +
 +
1739
 +
01:21:59,580 --> 01:22:02,760
 +
some of the parts of my talk I've
 +
 +
1740
 +
01:22:00,900 --> 01:22:05,790
 +
adapted from his great old talk that he
 +
 +
1741
 +
01:22:02,760 --> 01:22:08,670
 +
used to to give about these we improve
 +
 +
1742
 +
01:22:05,790 --> 01:22:09,599
 +
ourselves by improving our tools and the
 +
 +
1743
 +
01:22:08,670 --> 01:22:11,940
 +
tools
 +
 +
1744
 +
01:22:09,599 --> 01:22:13,320
 +
McLuhan like to say we shape the tools
 +
 +
1745
 +
01:22:11,940 --> 01:22:15,780
 +
and then the tools come around and
 +
 +
1746
 +
01:22:13,320 --> 01:22:17,460
 +
reshape us so you have to be very
 +
 +
1747
 +
01:22:15,780 --> 01:22:20,000
 +
careful about the tools that we make and
 +
 +
1748
 +
01:22:17,460 --> 01:22:23,130
 +
how they reshape us know that yes
 +
 +
1749
 +
01:22:20,000 --> 01:22:24,929
 +
Ian's standards and I was working in
 +
 +
1750
 +
01:22:23,130 --> 01:22:26,639
 +
marketplace that you have standards and
 +
 +
1751
 +
01:22:24,929 --> 01:22:28,560
 +
you also want empower the individual to
 +
 +
1752
 +
01:22:26,639 --> 01:22:30,540
 +
do their own thing how do you see that
 +
 +
1753
 +
01:22:28,560 --> 01:22:32,699
 +
balance being able to give a person
 +
 +
1754
 +
01:22:30,540 --> 01:22:34,290
 +
freedom but also want to have standards
 +
 +
1755
 +
01:22:32,699 --> 01:22:35,820
 +
so everybody can move quickly it sounds
 +
 +
1756
 +
01:22:34,290 --> 01:22:38,550
 +
like it's different directions but we
 +
 +
1757
 +
01:22:35,820 --> 01:22:40,679
 +
have to find out it's that's that's a
 +
 +
1758
 +
01:22:38,550 --> 01:22:44,550
 +
really good question and it goes back to
 +
 +
1759
 +
01:22:40,679 --> 01:22:48,150
 +
the Constitution idea I I was one of
 +
 +
1760
 +
01:22:44,550 --> 01:22:51,599
 +
about 20 people who worked on the
 +
 +
1761
 +
01:22:48,150 --> 01:22:53,159
 +
ARPANET 20 30 people who worked on the
 +
 +
1762
 +
01:22:51,599 --> 01:22:56,610
 +
ARPANET and it's the thing that became
 +
 +
1763
 +
01:22:53,159 --> 01:22:58,460
 +
the Internet and one of the things we
 +
 +
1764
 +
01:22:56,610 --> 01:23:01,079
 +
problems we had back then was the ARPA
 +
 +
1765
 +
01:22:58,460 --> 01:23:02,960
 +
projects had different computers he
 +
 +
1766
 +
01:23:01,079 --> 01:23:07,110
 +
networks basically and heterogeneous
 +
 +
1767
 +
01:23:02,960 --> 01:23:09,150
 +
computer that's just shafted that way
 +
 +
1768
 +
01:23:07,110 --> 01:23:11,119
 +
you're going to get different mixes and
 +
 +
1769
 +
01:23:09,150 --> 01:23:13,800
 +
so you have to sort of face up to it and
 +
 +
1770
 +
01:23:11,119 --> 01:23:16,139
 +
that was in 1968 it was just when I was
 +
 +
1771
 +
01:23:13,800 --> 01:23:19,139
 +
starting to design OOP systems and I
 +
 +
1772
 +
01:23:16,139 --> 01:23:21,420
 +
realized that objects by their very
 +
 +
1773
 +
01:23:19,139 --> 01:23:23,099
 +
nature of having a separate inside and
 +
 +
1774
 +
01:23:21,420 --> 01:23:24,679
 +
an outside we're perfect to go from
 +
 +
1775
 +
01:23:23,099 --> 01:23:26,849
 +
different machines a different machine
 +
 +
1776
 +
01:23:24,679 --> 01:23:28,880
 +
they could even carry different code
 +
 +
1777
 +
01:23:26,849 --> 01:23:31,050
 +
along with them and nobody was the wiser
 +
 +
1778
 +
01:23:28,880 --> 01:23:32,670
 +
they could carry an interpreter with
 +
 +
1779
 +
01:23:31,050 --> 01:23:34,050
 +
them like PostScript does in case there
 +
 +
1780
 +
01:23:32,670 --> 01:23:36,599
 +
isn't something that knows how to
 +
 +
1781
 +
01:23:34,050 --> 01:23:40,290
 +
compile them and so when you think about
 +
 +
1782
 +
01:23:36,599 --> 01:23:41,969
 +
it just the notion of an object or the
 +
 +
1783
 +
01:23:40,290 --> 01:23:43,560
 +
notion of a cell think of how many
 +
 +
1784
 +
01:23:41,969 --> 01:23:46,349
 +
different cell types we have they all
 +
 +
1785
 +
01:23:43,560 --> 01:23:49,670
 +
run from the same DNA right so the
 +
 +
1786
 +
01:23:46,349 --> 01:23:53,429
 +
compatibility is done by not allowing
 +
 +
1787
 +
01:23:49,670 --> 01:23:56,820
 +
gratuitous information outside of the
 +
 +
1788
 +
01:23:53,429 --> 01:23:58,920
 +
cell right so if you send objects around
 +
 +
1789
 +
01:23:56,820 --> 01:24:01,380
 +
so people can be infinitely they can do
 +
 +
1790
 +
01:23:58,920 --> 01:24:03,230
 +
anything they want put it inside of an
 +
 +
1791
 +
01:24:01,380 --> 01:24:05,579
 +
object and as long as the object can be
 +
 +
1792
 +
01:24:03,230 --> 01:24:07,860
 +
recognized by various protocols and
 +
 +
1793
 +
01:24:05,579 --> 01:24:09,659
 +
api's that object can run on a wide
 +
 +
1794
 +
01:24:07,860 --> 01:24:12,599
 +
variety of different machines and still
 +
 +
1795
 +
01:24:09,659 --> 01:24:15,090
 +
be completely idiosyncratic to what the
 +
 +
1796
 +
01:24:12,599 --> 01:24:16,530
 +
creative person wants to do so you can
 +
 +
1797
 +
01:24:15,090 --> 01:24:18,780
 +
think of that as you know it's a
 +
 +
1798
 +
01:24:16,530 --> 01:24:20,280
 +
biological most of the answers I have to
 +
 +
1799
 +
01:24:18,780 --> 01:24:21,869
 +
questions like that came out of I used
 +
 +
1800
 +
01:24:20,280 --> 01:24:22,239
 +
to be a molecular biologist a long time
 +
 +
1801
 +
01:24:21,869 --> 01:24:24,250
 +
ago
 +
 +
1802
 +
01:24:22,239 --> 01:24:27,340
 +
and thing you have to realize is a
 +
 +
1803
 +
01:24:24,250 --> 01:24:30,640
 +
biology is so much more complicated than
 +
 +
1804
 +
01:24:27,340 --> 01:24:32,350
 +
anything computer people do it's by you
 +
 +
1805
 +
01:24:30,640 --> 01:24:35,350
 +
know tens of orders of man for instance
 +
 +
1806
 +
01:24:32,350 --> 01:24:37,480
 +
a bacteriological cell which we have
 +
 +
1807
 +
01:24:35,350 --> 01:24:39,250
 +
lots in our but our body is about a
 +
 +
1808
 +
01:24:37,480 --> 01:24:44,230
 +
hundred gigabytes worth of information
 +
 +
1809
 +
01:24:39,250 --> 01:24:47,170
 +
processing machinery and the processing
 +
 +
1810
 +
01:24:44,230 --> 01:24:49,660
 +
pattern matches are done in in sub
 +
 +
1811
 +
01:24:47,170 --> 01:24:51,760
 +
microsecond speed all right so you
 +
 +
1812
 +
01:24:49,660 --> 01:24:54,400
 +
happen it's just so typical one of those
 +
 +
1813
 +
01:24:51,760 --> 01:24:56,440
 +
things is like fifty thousand four
 +
 +
1814
 +
01:24:54,400 --> 01:25:00,010
 +
megabyte despot desktop computers that's
 +
 +
1815
 +
01:24:56,440 --> 01:25:03,190
 +
one bacterium one bacterium is one five
 +
 +
1816
 +
01:25:00,010 --> 01:25:07,500
 +
hundredth the size of a typical cell in
 +
 +
1817
 +
01:25:03,190 --> 01:25:11,560
 +
our body right we have ten trillion
 +
 +
1818
 +
01:25:07,500 --> 01:25:14,080
 +
cells in our body now the thing you have
 +
 +
1819
 +
01:25:11,560 --> 01:25:16,200
 +
to realize is that what's happening in
 +
 +
1820
 +
01:25:14,080 --> 01:25:19,270
 +
our body is hundreds and hundreds of
 +
 +
1821
 +
01:25:16,200 --> 01:25:21,810
 +
thousands even millions of cells are
 +
 +
1822
 +
01:25:19,270 --> 01:25:25,030
 +
dying every day
 +
 +
1823
 +
01:25:21,810 --> 01:25:26,739
 +
do everybody know that the atoms in our
 +
 +
1824
 +
01:25:25,030 --> 01:25:30,239
 +
body don't last for more than seven
 +
 +
1825
 +
01:25:26,739 --> 01:25:33,430
 +
years even in our bones they're replaced
 +
 +
1826
 +
01:25:30,239 --> 01:25:36,120
 +
so we humans biological organisms are
 +
 +
1827
 +
01:25:33,430 --> 01:25:38,410
 +
patterns moving through time and space
 +
 +
1828
 +
01:25:36,120 --> 01:25:42,430
 +
material comes into us and it goes out
 +
 +
1829
 +
01:25:38,410 --> 01:25:44,020
 +
of us the pattern stays behind right so
 +
 +
1830
 +
01:25:42,430 --> 01:25:46,780
 +
there's a constant dynamic organization
 +
 +
1831
 +
01:25:44,020 --> 01:25:48,430
 +
now why are we still alive the answer is
 +
 +
1832
 +
01:25:46,780 --> 01:25:52,300
 +
that more things are going right with us
 +
 +
1833
 +
01:25:48,430 --> 01:25:55,750
 +
and are going wrong compare that to your
 +
 +
1834
 +
01:25:52,300 --> 01:25:57,850
 +
COBOL program where one line of code now
 +
 +
1835
 +
01:25:55,750 --> 01:26:01,090
 +
let's see it wasn't well as far go but
 +
 +
1836
 +
01:25:57,850 --> 01:26:05,770
 +
what Bank was at Chemical Bank one line
 +
 +
1837
 +
01:26:01,090 --> 01:26:07,960
 +
of C code right and all of a sudden
 +
 +
1838
 +
01:26:05,770 --> 01:26:10,120
 +
people were having every time they took
 +
 +
1839
 +
01:26:07,960 --> 01:26:15,700
 +
something out it was twice as much as
 +
 +
1840
 +
01:26:10,120 --> 01:26:17,320
 +
taken out how can you do that come on we
 +
 +
1841
 +
01:26:15,700 --> 01:26:18,880
 +
shouldn't you think of that kind of
 +
 +
1842
 +
01:26:17,320 --> 01:26:20,670
 +
stuff as I mean if you're gonna use
 +
 +
1843
 +
01:26:18,880 --> 01:26:24,850
 +
transaction systems can't you imagine
 +
 +
1844
 +
01:26:20,670 --> 01:26:26,950
 +
transactions at the code level like it's
 +
 +
1845
 +
01:26:24,850 --> 01:26:28,750
 +
like do you really want to program in a
 +
 +
1846
 +
01:26:26,950 --> 01:26:31,350
 +
procedural language when you should be
 +
 +
1847
 +
01:26:28,750 --> 01:26:33,550
 +
programming in terms of constraints
 +
 +
1848
 +
01:26:31,350 --> 01:26:34,900
 +
that's the way you do that when you do
 +
 +
1849
 +
01:26:33,550 --> 01:26:36,290
 +
that you wind up with something that's
 +
 +
1850
 +
01:26:34,900 --> 01:26:39,080
 +
like a biological
 +
 +
1851
 +
01:26:36,290 --> 01:26:40,700
 +
it's tolerant of error because the
 +
 +
1852
 +
01:26:39,080 --> 01:26:43,430
 +
constraints are gonna make the overall
 +
 +
1853
 +
01:26:40,700 --> 01:26:45,710
 +
system get to the goal anyway so it's
 +
 +
1854
 +
01:26:43,430 --> 01:26:47,270
 +
like all biological systems when they're
 +
 +
1855
 +
01:26:45,710 --> 01:26:48,800
 +
following a light they don't get perfect
 +
 +
1856
 +
01:26:47,270 --> 01:26:50,150
 +
information back and they're not doing
 +
 +
1857
 +
01:26:48,800 --> 01:26:51,740
 +
things perfectly but the feedback
 +
 +
1858
 +
01:26:50,150 --> 01:26:54,310
 +
mechanism will get them to the goal
 +
 +
1859
 +
01:26:51,740 --> 01:27:06,530
 +
that's the way we should be programming
 +
 +
1860
 +
01:26:54,310 --> 01:27:08,540
 +
another question yes who makes it yeah
 +
 +
1861
 +
01:27:06,530 --> 01:27:11,030
 +
actually I always throw that in I
 +
 +
1862
 +
01:27:08,540 --> 01:27:13,700
 +
thought you know I've all my
 +
 +
1863
 +
01:27:11,030 --> 01:27:16,220
 +
professional career starting from 1968
 +
 +
1864
 +
01:27:13,700 --> 01:27:19,370
 +
I've worked with children the Mac was
 +
 +
1865
 +
01:27:16,220 --> 01:27:21,140
 +
designed for children not for adults in
 +
 +
1866
 +
01:27:19,370 --> 01:27:25,250
 +
fact some of the drawbacks in the user
 +
 +
1867
 +
01:27:21,140 --> 01:27:26,450
 +
interface are because of that fact we
 +
 +
1868
 +
01:27:25,250 --> 01:27:28,880
 +
did that interface so we could teach
 +
 +
1869
 +
01:27:26,450 --> 01:27:33,620
 +
children some very complicated things
 +
 +
1870
 +
01:27:28,880 --> 01:27:37,370
 +
and the to me the because of the way our
 +
 +
1871
 +
01:27:33,620 --> 01:27:39,470
 +
minds work because as humans we're
 +
 +
1872
 +
01:27:37,370 --> 01:27:44,030
 +
inescapably drawn and thank goodness in
 +
 +
1873
 +
01:27:39,470 --> 01:27:46,900
 +
a way to learn our culture think of the
 +
 +
1874
 +
01:27:44,030 --> 01:27:49,030
 +
an arc think if we weren't social
 +
 +
1875
 +
01:27:46,900 --> 01:27:52,700
 +
they'll be frightening
 +
 +
1876
 +
01:27:49,030 --> 01:27:56,920
 +
so we're drawn to learn a big set of
 +
 +
1877
 +
01:27:52,700 --> 01:27:59,360
 +
beliefs and if we want to change those
 +
 +
1878
 +
01:27:56,920 --> 01:28:02,540
 +
beliefs it's much easier to change them
 +
 +
1879
 +
01:27:59,360 --> 01:28:04,130
 +
in children than in adults and so I you
 +
 +
1880
 +
01:28:02,540 --> 01:28:05,870
 +
know I'm sort of the opposite the Roman
 +
 +
1881
 +
01:28:04,130 --> 01:28:09,050
 +
Catholic Church and you know I want to
 +
 +
1882
 +
01:28:05,870 --> 01:28:10,760
 +
save the children first and they are the
 +
 +
1883
 +
01:28:09,050 --> 01:28:12,800
 +
ones that I can't find any way of
 +
 +
1884
 +
01:28:10,760 --> 01:28:14,210
 +
blaming them when something is going
 +
 +
1885
 +
01:28:12,800 --> 01:28:16,610
 +
wrong with them whereas adults I can
 +
 +
1886
 +
01:28:14,210 --> 01:28:18,980
 +
find infinite lists of things to blame
 +
 +
1887
 +
01:28:16,610 --> 01:28:22,430
 +
adults for they should know better etc
 +
 +
1888
 +
01:28:18,980 --> 01:28:23,780
 +
etc but for children good grief so the
 +
 +
1889
 +
01:28:22,430 --> 01:28:26,020
 +
answer is you just keep on throwing this
 +
 +
1890
 +
01:28:23,780 --> 01:28:28,700
 +
stuff I think the Chinese water torture
 +
 +
1891
 +
01:28:26,020 --> 01:28:30,680
 +
treatment is you just kept people to
 +
 +
1892
 +
01:28:28,700 --> 01:28:32,390
 +
keep on trying to notice the things are
 +
 +
1893
 +
01:28:30,680 --> 01:28:35,210
 +
infinitely more complex than television
 +
 +
1894
 +
01:28:32,390 --> 01:28:36,860
 +
can ever portray and once people start
 +
 +
1895
 +
01:28:35,210 --> 01:28:39,290
 +
thinking in terms other than in
 +
 +
1896
 +
01:28:36,860 --> 01:28:40,700
 +
television where you're dealing with
 +
 +
1897
 +
01:28:39,290 --> 01:28:43,610
 +
individuals and start thinking in these
 +
 +
1898
 +
01:28:40,700 --> 01:28:45,580
 +
larger abstract terms that's that's when
 +
 +
1899
 +
01:28:43,610 --> 01:28:48,800
 +
things start happening
 +
 +
1900
 +
01:28:45,580 --> 01:28:49,790
 +
anybody can save one child the most
 +
 +
1901
 +
01:28:48,800 --> 01:28:51,470
 +
important thing is
 +
 +
1902
 +
01:28:49,790 --> 01:28:53,090
 +
to realize that if you save one child
 +
 +
1903
 +
01:28:51,470 --> 01:28:58,660
 +
and somebody else say is another child
 +
 +
1904
 +
01:28:53,090 --> 01:28:58,660
 +
and all the children will be saved yes
 +
 +
1905
 +
01:28:58,960 --> 01:29:03,530
 +
time to quit I would love to stop on
 +
 +
1906
 +
01:29:01,370 --> 01:29:04,850
 +
that note okay matter of fact thank you
 +
 +
1907
 +
01:29:03,530 --> 01:29:15,789
 +
very much
 +
 +
1908
 +
01:29:04,850 --> 01:29:15,789
 +
[Applause]

Revision as of 22:12, 5 December 2017

1 00:00:00,370 --> 00:00:04,750 [Applause]

2 00:00:05,990 --> 00:00:12,690 well thank you for inviting me here I

3 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:16,230 like the title of this session I think

4 00:00:12,690 --> 00:00:19,500 in the first year I was at Xerox PARC I

5 00:00:16,230 --> 00:00:22,920 had an argument with some of the Xerox

6 00:00:19,500 --> 00:00:25,650 executives who are worrying about what

7 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:27,900 might happen and they wanted to defend

8 00:00:25,650 --> 00:00:31,679 themselves against the future it was so

9 00:00:27,900 --> 00:00:33,000 wimpy I finally got angry at them and I

10 00:00:31,679 --> 00:00:35,190 said look the best way to predict the

11 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:36,570 future is to invent it don't worry about

12 00:00:35,190 --> 00:00:39,270 what all those other people are going to

13 00:00:36,570 --> 00:00:41,280 do this is the century in which if you

14 00:00:39,270 --> 00:00:43,410 have a vision and you don't violate too

15 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:45,289 many of Newton's laws you can actually

16 00:00:43,410 --> 00:00:48,270 build the thing that you have in mind

17 00:00:45,289 --> 00:00:50,910 now delivering the future is a more

18 00:00:48,270 --> 00:00:55,199 subtle metaphor so it implies there's

19 00:00:50,910 --> 00:00:56,760 something to deliver like a baby and the

20 00:00:55,199 --> 00:00:59,039 reason I like it is that there's all

21 00:00:56,760 --> 00:01:01,199 this exciting stuff that has to happen a

22 00:00:59,039 --> 00:01:06,750 little earlier in the process in order

23 00:01:01,199 --> 00:01:11,729 to have a baby to deliver we scientists

24 00:01:06,750 --> 00:01:16,439 call that research so I'm going to talk

25 00:01:11,729 --> 00:01:22,140 to you a little bit about how the future

26 00:01:16,439 --> 00:01:24,720 gets invented I think some of the some

27 00:01:22,140 --> 00:01:26,220 of the stories and ideas I think may may

28 00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:31,650 help you now I'm not a professional

29 00:01:26,220 --> 00:01:36,600 speaker I'm still a scientist as my

30 00:01:31,650 --> 00:01:39,869 introducer said my title is a fellow we

31 00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:43,350 decided at Apple that the mass noun for

32 00:01:39,869 --> 00:01:44,790 know there's a pride of lions we decided

33 00:01:43,350 --> 00:01:47,270 that the mass now and for fellows should

34 00:01:44,790 --> 00:01:47,270 be jolly

35 00:01:47,590 --> 00:01:57,850 so we have a jolly of fellows at at

36 00:01:50,140 --> 00:02:02,829 Apple we have three of them now twenty

37 00:01:57,850 --> 00:02:06,610 years ago at Xerox PARC we invented six

38 00:02:02,829 --> 00:02:10,330 things and I would not be here talking

39 00:02:06,610 --> 00:02:17,800 to you if Xerox had accepted any one of

40 00:02:10,330 --> 00:02:22,290 these it was in fact what happened after

41 00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:26,860 we invented these six things that I got

42 00:02:22,290 --> 00:02:29,380 interested in talking to people outside

43 00:02:26,860 --> 00:02:32,290 of the computer field the six things

44 00:02:29,380 --> 00:02:35,410 were the first thing like a workstation

45 00:02:32,290 --> 00:02:38,470 or a modern PC really the first thing

46 00:02:35,410 --> 00:02:40,840 like a Macintosh originally started

47 00:02:38,470 --> 00:02:44,380 working in 1973 the first overlapping

48 00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:52,380 window user interface first modern OOP

49 00:02:44,380 --> 00:02:55,269 system first laser printer and the

50 00:02:52,380 --> 00:02:56,260 ethernet and then the the sixth thing I

51 00:02:55,269 --> 00:02:58,870 didn't have a really good picture

52 00:02:56,260 --> 00:03:01,030 because I just show another Alto there

53 00:02:58,870 --> 00:03:04,959 which was what we call client-server

54 00:03:01,030 --> 00:03:07,510 computing now in today's terms it's

55 00:03:04,959 --> 00:03:11,260 actually pierre-pierre computing because

56 00:03:07,510 --> 00:03:12,730 clients see terms get corrupted I made

57 00:03:11,260 --> 00:03:15,190 up the terms personal computer and I

58 00:03:12,730 --> 00:03:16,720 made up the term object-oriented and

59 00:03:15,190 --> 00:03:19,510 both of those have gotten corrupted into

60 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:22,239 an almost meaningless terms

61 00:03:19,510 --> 00:03:26,430 client-server has gotten corrupted it's

62 00:03:22,239 --> 00:03:26,430 the new way of saying terminal mainframe

63 00:03:27,630 --> 00:03:33,330 I can assure you that was not what we

64 00:03:30,090 --> 00:03:35,670 had in mind any more than we thought

65 00:03:33,330 --> 00:03:39,000 that C++ would be called an

66 00:03:35,670 --> 00:03:41,720 object-oriented language or that the IBM

67 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:45,410 PC would be called a personal computer I

68 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:48,090 was more meanings originally or that

69 00:03:45,410 --> 00:03:53,070 windows 3.0 would be called a user

70 00:03:48,090 --> 00:03:57,600 interface as far as that goes but that's

71 00:03:53,070 --> 00:04:03,870 the way it goes now what happened is

72 00:03:57,600 --> 00:04:07,740 that around 1975 76 we had about 700 of

73 00:04:03,870 --> 00:04:11,730 these machines both at Palo Alto and in

74 00:04:07,740 --> 00:04:14,580 Rochester and we had I guess eight or

75 00:04:11,730 --> 00:04:17,160 nine Ethernet linked together and then

76 00:04:14,580 --> 00:04:19,950 linked by long lines from Rochester to

77 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:22,650 Palo Alto and you could actually sit

78 00:04:19,950 --> 00:04:25,020 down and do something in Rochester that

79 00:04:22,650 --> 00:04:27,090 is very hard to do today you could go to

80 00:04:25,020 --> 00:04:32,610 Rochester and sit down at an alto and

81 00:04:27,090 --> 00:04:34,920 work as though that was your alto so

82 00:04:32,610 --> 00:04:37,290 this was a what you what today is called

83 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:39,720 a natural network virtual address space

84 00:04:37,290 --> 00:04:41,670 the computations actually were able to

85 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:45,750 float around the network they were not

86 00:04:41,670 --> 00:04:49,290 bound to specific machines and what

87 00:04:45,750 --> 00:04:51,750 happened was in August 1976 Xerox turned

88 00:04:49,290 --> 00:04:54,540 down all of this technology even though

89 00:04:51,750 --> 00:04:56,520 there were hundreds of machines working

90 00:04:54,540 --> 00:04:59,760 software the first desktop publishing

91 00:04:56,520 --> 00:05:02,430 system Microsoft Word which was

92 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:05,580 originally called Bravo was done at Parc

93 00:05:02,430 --> 00:05:07,860 it was the word processing system that

94 00:05:05,580 --> 00:05:10,580 we used all of this stuff they turned it

95 00:05:07,860 --> 00:05:15,090 down of course that was a great shock

96 00:05:10,580 --> 00:05:17,790 but what did we know we kept on plugging

97 00:05:15,090 --> 00:05:20,040 away at at what we're doing in 1978 I

98 00:05:17,790 --> 00:05:22,380 met several of the executives who had

99 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:23,880 made that decision and was really

100 00:05:22,380 --> 00:05:27,240 surprised to discover that they were

101 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:32,490 actually somewhat intelligent even even

102 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:34,200 for Xerox executives and then that was

103 00:05:32,490 --> 00:05:35,490 when I started worrying because you see

104 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:39,870 when they turned it down we just thought

105 00:05:35,490 --> 00:05:41,340 well they're stupid they're dumb what do

106 00:05:39,870 --> 00:05:44,290 they know

107 00:05:41,340 --> 00:05:45,670 you know this is hopeless but when I

108 00:05:44,290 --> 00:05:47,260 found out they were intelligent and they

109 00:05:45,670 --> 00:05:49,510 still turned it down I realized that

110 00:05:47,260 --> 00:05:52,060 something much more serious was going on

111 00:05:49,510 --> 00:05:54,220 and one way of saying it as they were

112 00:05:52,060 --> 00:05:56,320 still doing Ptolemaic astronomy in

113 00:05:54,220 --> 00:05:58,750 Connecticut and we had started doing

114 00:05:56,320 --> 00:06:01,990 Copernican astronomy out in California

115 00:05:58,750 --> 00:06:05,290 when you get one of those where you get

116 00:06:01,990 --> 00:06:07,300 a complete miss between two ways of

117 00:06:05,290 --> 00:06:08,950 looking at the world you have something

118 00:06:07,300 --> 00:06:11,440 really serious because there aren't even

119 00:06:08,950 --> 00:06:14,650 grounds for conversation and what's

120 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:17,680 worse the same words get used over again

121 00:06:14,650 --> 00:06:20,650 but in different ways in astronomy the

122 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:23,350 word orbit comes from one of the initial

123 00:06:20,650 --> 00:06:25,870 beliefs by the Greeks that the planets

124 00:06:23,350 --> 00:06:28,540 are on transparent spheres you ever

125 00:06:25,870 --> 00:06:30,610 wonder why a planar orbit was called orb

126 00:06:28,540 --> 00:06:33,100 in orbit because they thought they were

127 00:06:30,610 --> 00:06:37,450 on glass spheres then it got taken over

128 00:06:33,100 --> 00:06:39,190 to mean planar orbits got reused by

129 00:06:37,450 --> 00:06:41,770 Copernicus to me and a heliocentric

130 00:06:39,190 --> 00:06:44,530 system got really used by Newton and

131 00:06:41,770 --> 00:06:47,080 Kepler and got reused by Einstein same

132 00:06:44,530 --> 00:06:49,090 word we use today the way people have

133 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:51,280 trouble with science science

134 00:06:49,090 --> 00:06:56,350 unfortunately decided to reuse the word

135 00:06:51,280 --> 00:06:57,820 theory and people when they hear about

136 00:06:56,350 --> 00:07:00,250 the theory of relativity they say oh

137 00:06:57,820 --> 00:07:03,370 that's just a theory or the theory of

138 00:07:00,250 --> 00:07:05,710 evolution that's just a theory theory

139 00:07:03,370 --> 00:07:09,790 and science means something completely

140 00:07:05,710 --> 00:07:12,280 different we separate out the two words

141 00:07:09,790 --> 00:07:14,530 theory and conjecture it's a theory and

142 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:17,310 science is something that has been set

143 00:07:14,530 --> 00:07:19,960 up in such a way and beaten on for years

144 00:07:17,310 --> 00:07:22,120 so it is a ball stirred set of arguments

145 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:23,500 why don't we call it the truth the

146 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:27,250 reason is is that science doesn't

147 00:07:23,500 --> 00:07:31,090 believe that you can find truth it's a

148 00:07:27,250 --> 00:07:32,770 cliche and a myth does science believes

149 00:07:31,090 --> 00:07:35,050 that what you can find are better and

150 00:07:32,770 --> 00:07:36,070 better mappings of the world so that's

151 00:07:35,050 --> 00:07:39,040 what I'm going to talk to you today

152 00:07:36,070 --> 00:07:42,730 about are because the way you get into

153 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:44,770 the future is by realizing that the way

154 00:07:42,730 --> 00:07:47,290 we look at the world in any given time

155 00:07:44,770 --> 00:07:49,630 is always through our own mappings and

156 00:07:47,290 --> 00:07:50,710 we can come up with different mappings

157 00:07:49,630 --> 00:07:52,240 and when we come up with different

158 00:07:50,710 --> 00:07:55,120 mappings we can look at the world in a

159 00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:56,680 different way now

160 00:07:55,120 --> 00:08:01,030 the big problem with predicting the

161 00:07:56,680 --> 00:08:04,960 future is in large part because of the

162 00:08:01,030 --> 00:08:07,150 funny ways that human like to think so

163 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:10,810 here are three ways of getting from A to

164 00:08:07,150 --> 00:08:13,990 B the first one is random walk you start

165 00:08:10,810 --> 00:08:15,790 off from place a there on the left and

166 00:08:13,990 --> 00:08:17,560 at every corner you take a random

167 00:08:15,790 --> 00:08:20,290 turning and eventually you can prove

168 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:22,780 that you will get to B I always think of

169 00:08:20,290 --> 00:08:27,389 that as a perfect example of hire

170 00:08:22,780 --> 00:08:32,950 management's main way of doing things

171 00:08:27,389 --> 00:08:34,779 now lower in the organization you have a

172 00:08:32,950 --> 00:08:37,539 more rational way of looking at it which

173 00:08:34,779 --> 00:08:39,610 is reduce the differences this is what

174 00:08:37,539 --> 00:08:43,089 they teach in business school and in

175 00:08:39,610 --> 00:08:46,140 most elementary and high schools and

176 00:08:43,089 --> 00:08:48,070 colleges is problem-solving

177 00:08:46,140 --> 00:08:50,680 problem-solving the way you solve a

178 00:08:48,070 --> 00:08:53,320 problem here is that at each step of the

179 00:08:50,680 --> 00:08:55,570 way you see if you can get closer to the

180 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:57,130 gold state and then when you have

181 00:08:55,570 --> 00:08:59,830 reduced that difference to zero you've

182 00:08:57,130 --> 00:09:01,630 achieved the goal now it turns out that

183 00:08:59,830 --> 00:09:03,460 both of these ways of doing things are

184 00:09:01,630 --> 00:09:07,750 completely have been obsolete for many

185 00:09:03,460 --> 00:09:11,680 many years the way really good things

186 00:09:07,750 --> 00:09:14,100 are done is at the bottom there and what

187 00:09:11,680 --> 00:09:18,100 you do is instead of going from A to B

188 00:09:14,100 --> 00:09:21,310 randomly or by reducing differences what

189 00:09:18,100 --> 00:09:25,480 you do is you go away from B for a while

190 00:09:21,310 --> 00:09:26,980 and find us find a superhighway because

191 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:29,500 you can go away from B for a while and

192 00:09:26,980 --> 00:09:32,290 you find a superhighway you can get very

193 00:09:29,500 --> 00:09:35,350 very close to B be very very rapidly

194 00:09:32,290 --> 00:09:37,930 then get off find B now this is very

195 00:09:35,350 --> 00:09:40,480 hard for people to do companies have the

196 00:09:37,930 --> 00:09:44,050 hardest time going away from their short

197 00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:48,040 term goals in order to build structures

198 00:09:44,050 --> 00:09:50,620 that will allow them to deal with many

199 00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:51,670 many goals in the future rather than

200 00:09:50,620 --> 00:09:55,180 just the ones that they're working with

201 00:09:51,670 --> 00:09:58,959 now you could think of this third way of

202 00:09:55,180 --> 00:10:00,130 looking at things as a architecture if

203 00:09:58,959 --> 00:10:05,700 you want you could think of it as a

204 00:10:00,130 --> 00:10:08,460 paradigm that's going away from the goal

205 00:10:05,700 --> 00:10:11,110 sometimes called research

206 00:10:08,460 --> 00:10:13,420 it's the kind of investment that you

207 00:10:11,110 --> 00:10:15,720 make in order to find large-scale

208 00:10:13,420 --> 00:10:18,700 architectures that are going to help you

209 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:20,800 so if we want to predict the future we

210 00:10:18,700 --> 00:10:24,310 have to find some way that is not

211 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:26,230 extrapolate 'iv something that doesn't

212 00:10:24,310 --> 00:10:27,970 rely on the future being a lot like the

213 00:10:26,230 --> 00:10:29,950 present where else we're just going to

214 00:10:27,970 --> 00:10:36,610 come up with improved versions of the

215 00:10:29,950 --> 00:10:38,890 present so here is a dream called MMX is

216 00:10:36,610 --> 00:10:42,220 done by Vannevar Bush who is president

217 00:10:38,890 --> 00:10:44,560 roosevelt's science advisor who wrote an

218 00:10:42,220 --> 00:10:46,990 article in 1945 and in that article he

219 00:10:44,560 --> 00:10:48,880 said not too long from now everybody

220 00:10:46,990 --> 00:10:52,540 will be able to have in their house a

221 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:56,400 device the size of a desk in that desk

222 00:10:52,540 --> 00:11:00,730 stored optically will be the contents of

223 00:10:56,400 --> 00:11:03,700 about a small town library about five to

224 00:11:00,730 --> 00:11:04,990 ten thousand volumes worth of materials

225 00:11:03,700 --> 00:11:09,880 and we'll be able to search that we'll

226 00:11:04,990 --> 00:11:11,410 be able to look on look at this material

227 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:14,950 on various screens and we'll have

228 00:11:11,410 --> 00:11:17,440 pointing devices that we can put new

229 00:11:14,950 --> 00:11:22,600 information in and keyboards and etc etc

230 00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:25,600 so this is Memex written in 1945 by a

231 00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:26,860 pretty good scientist I had some good

232 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:28,840 reasons to believe that this could

233 00:11:26,860 --> 00:11:31,240 happen because he was aware of things

234 00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:33,610 that were going on at the time including

235 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:35,850 the development of computers and of

236 00:11:33,610 --> 00:11:38,890 various kinds of dry photography

237 00:11:35,850 --> 00:11:41,500 microfilm microfiche and so forth we're

238 00:11:38,890 --> 00:11:44,620 all being developed then the critical

239 00:11:41,500 --> 00:11:46,660 thing about this for the story today is

240 00:11:44,620 --> 00:11:49,000 that a number of the people who invented

241 00:11:46,660 --> 00:11:53,350 the technologies that you're using today

242 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:54,790 saw this Engelbart who was a towering

243 00:11:53,350 --> 00:11:57,880 figure we'll meet him in a minute

244 00:11:54,790 --> 00:12:00,340 saw this in 1945 he was in the Navy and

245 00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:05,440 he read it read this version in Life

246 00:12:00,340 --> 00:12:08,890 magazine had pictures on it I saw it

247 00:12:05,440 --> 00:12:11,550 when I was 14 years old as a result of

248 00:12:08,890 --> 00:12:15,280 reading a science fiction book in 1954

249 00:12:11,550 --> 00:12:16,900 so and other people saw it and when it

250 00:12:15,280 --> 00:12:20,260 came time to actually do it there was

251 00:12:16,900 --> 00:12:21,580 already an image of what it would be

252 00:12:20,260 --> 00:12:25,720 really nice to have

253 00:12:21,580 --> 00:12:28,030 it didn't look at all like ENIAC a huge

254 00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:31,570 mainframe computer for solving ballistic

255 00:12:28,030 --> 00:12:35,290 problems it didn't look like a univac it

256 00:12:31,570 --> 00:12:37,720 didn't look like a any kind of mainframe

257 00:12:35,290 --> 00:12:40,000 computer in IBM 650 this looked like

258 00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:41,520 something that a person could use and

259 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:46,450 actually this became the rallying cry

260 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:49,110 starting around 1960 ok so there are

261 00:12:46,450 --> 00:12:51,910 several different ways of thinking about

262 00:12:49,110 --> 00:12:53,380 computing back then one was that the

263 00:12:51,910 --> 00:12:56,320 mainframe was gone of a universal

264 00:12:53,380 --> 00:13:00,370 factory that was IBM's way of thinking

265 00:12:56,320 --> 00:13:04,530 about it Engelbert thought of computing

266 00:13:00,370 --> 00:13:07,930 as a kind of a vehicle now Engle Bart

267 00:13:04,530 --> 00:13:11,080 was the guy who invented the mouse and

268 00:13:07,930 --> 00:13:12,910 that looks like a fairly modern picture

269 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:14,980 because let me ask the crowd here how

270 00:13:12,910 --> 00:13:19,240 many people have in their office right

271 00:13:14,980 --> 00:13:20,770 now a two-page display right not one of

272 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:22,510 these little guys but one of these guys

273 00:13:20,770 --> 00:13:25,510 you can put two two full pages of

274 00:13:22,510 --> 00:13:27,460 display okay couple people so there's

275 00:13:25,510 --> 00:13:29,830 one right there that was the first one

276 00:13:27,460 --> 00:13:36,390 anybody ever used that picture was taken

277 00:13:29,830 --> 00:13:38,740 in 1966 okay so in 1966 Engelbart had

278 00:13:36,390 --> 00:13:41,080 thought through that computers were not

279 00:13:38,740 --> 00:13:44,620 about processing numbers they were

280 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:45,790 actually there to relate information now

281 00:13:44,620 --> 00:13:47,980 he was one of the people who invented

282 00:13:45,790 --> 00:13:49,210 one of the first word processors but he

283 00:13:47,980 --> 00:13:50,280 didn't think computers were for word

284 00:13:49,210 --> 00:13:52,600 processing

285 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:54,820 he didn't think they were for outlying

286 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:57,040 processing he thought that they were for

287 00:13:54,820 --> 00:14:00,340 relating information and he realized

288 00:13:57,040 --> 00:14:09,550 something very very profound about

289 00:14:00,340 --> 00:14:12,790 computing that is an ordinary physical

290 00:14:09,550 --> 00:14:16,720 space that we live in if we have point a

291 00:14:12,790 --> 00:14:19,560 here and we have a point B down here it

292 00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:19,560 isn't the same place

293 00:14:21,100 --> 00:14:27,420 what's been generated in between them is

294 00:14:23,730 --> 00:14:30,910 that horrible thing called distance an

295 00:14:27,420 --> 00:14:32,320 angle Bart realized something very

296 00:14:30,910 --> 00:14:34,890 interesting about distance and that is

297 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:38,140 if here's that this is a two dimensional

298 00:14:34,890 --> 00:14:41,680 space we have a two dimensional distance

299 00:14:38,140 --> 00:14:44,200 but what's incredible about distance is

300 00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:48,520 if you give me one more dimension I can

301 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:49,990 get rid of the distance right just one

302 00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:51,700 more dimension than the dimension of my

303 00:14:49,990 --> 00:14:53,500 information and I can get all of the

304 00:14:51,700 --> 00:14:57,160 intervention interesting information in

305 00:14:53,500 --> 00:15:01,110 the same place in hyperspace and I can

306 00:14:57,160 --> 00:15:01,110 do it for any number of them

307 00:15:01,230 --> 00:15:05,650 that's what Engelbart did so he was the

308 00:15:04,390 --> 00:15:08,470 guy who invented what we now call

309 00:15:05,650 --> 00:15:10,780 hypertext or hyper media he realized

310 00:15:08,470 --> 00:15:13,360 that what people really want is not an

311 00:15:10,780 --> 00:15:16,510 imitation of paper they want something

312 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:18,610 better they don't want to automate old

313 00:15:16,510 --> 00:15:21,370 things what they need is to take all the

314 00:15:18,610 --> 00:15:23,260 interesting information about a wide

315 00:15:21,370 --> 00:15:25,830 number of things and exits so that all

316 00:15:23,260 --> 00:15:30,600 of those things are in the same place

317 00:15:25,830 --> 00:15:32,890 and Ivan Sutherland around the same time

318 00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:34,480 did something wonderful he was the guy

319 00:15:32,890 --> 00:15:37,720 who invented computer graphics it was

320 00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:39,790 invented around 1962 and again he just

321 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:42,970 didn't do it to imitate paper to imitate

322 00:15:39,790 --> 00:15:44,800 drafting he looked at and said what else

323 00:15:42,970 --> 00:15:47,440 can it do this is what we should always

324 00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:50,050 ask most important question what else

325 00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:52,450 can it do and what it could do is it

326 00:15:50,050 --> 00:15:55,450 could simulate things so on this thing

327 00:15:52,450 --> 00:15:57,010 this picture taken in 1962 Sutherland is

328 00:15:55,450 --> 00:15:59,490 sitting in front of a bridge that he's

329 00:15:57,010 --> 00:16:02,500 drawn and sketchpad and that bridge is

330 00:15:59,490 --> 00:16:04,270 dynamically sustaining a weight and

331 00:16:02,500 --> 00:16:06,940 showing him what the stresses and

332 00:16:04,270 --> 00:16:09,850 strains on the bridge are so here are

333 00:16:06,940 --> 00:16:13,690 three completely different metaphors for

334 00:16:09,850 --> 00:16:15,970 computing I think you'll agree that the

335 00:16:13,690 --> 00:16:17,640 dominant metaphor today is still the

336 00:16:15,970 --> 00:16:21,430 Universal Factory

337 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:23,640 American business by and large uses

338 00:16:21,430 --> 00:16:28,660 computers to automate accounting I'm

339 00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:30,390 sure that Wells Fargo does really do

340 00:16:28,660 --> 00:16:34,360 they think of it as a vehicle for

341 00:16:30,390 --> 00:16:34,810 traversing hyperspace where all of the

342 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:36,580 stuff

343 00:16:34,810 --> 00:16:38,830 of interest to you should be available

344 00:16:36,580 --> 00:16:41,380 dynamically and rarely do they think of

345 00:16:38,830 --> 00:16:44,050 it as a simulator for being able to deal

346 00:16:41,380 --> 00:16:45,580 with very complex problems and try and

347 00:16:44,050 --> 00:16:49,810 understand what happens next

348 00:16:45,580 --> 00:16:51,310 now individuals do about 70% of the use

349 00:16:49,810 --> 00:16:56,860 of spreadsheets on personal computers

350 00:16:51,310 --> 00:16:59,850 our what-ifs but IT organizations almost

351 00:16:56,860 --> 00:17:05,650 never do IT organizations run

352 00:16:59,850 --> 00:17:07,030 post-mortems on already in bomb de right

353 00:17:05,650 --> 00:17:09,760 by the time they get around to writing

354 00:17:07,030 --> 00:17:12,430 an application which is usually 18

355 00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:14,939 months after it was requested the

356 00:17:12,430 --> 00:17:18,310 information is not of interest anymore

357 00:17:14,939 --> 00:17:20,050 so the metaphor that we pick for

358 00:17:18,310 --> 00:17:24,730 thinking about what computing is is very

359 00:17:20,050 --> 00:17:27,610 very critical now I started thinking

360 00:17:24,730 --> 00:17:29,440 about I started in 1961 and I started

361 00:17:27,610 --> 00:17:31,720 thinking about this stuff and it I was

362 00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:36,790 very intrigued with angle Bart's stuff

363 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:39,490 and in 1967 I built this machine in the

364 00:17:36,790 --> 00:17:41,679 center the top Center there it was

365 00:17:39,490 --> 00:17:43,570 called the Flex machine so it looks like

366 00:17:41,679 --> 00:17:46,150 a personal computer of today it was a

367 00:17:43,570 --> 00:17:48,670 personal computer was a desktop computer

368 00:17:46,150 --> 00:17:52,090 for very special deaths namely those

369 00:17:48,670 --> 00:17:53,940 made out of steel so weighed about 400

370 00:17:52,090 --> 00:17:57,060 pounds

371 00:17:53,940 --> 00:18:01,470 and had a had a fan that was likened to

372 00:17:57,060 --> 00:18:04,110 a 747 taking off C in those days the

373 00:18:01,470 --> 00:18:05,520 integrated circuit packages integrated

374 00:18:04,110 --> 00:18:08,760 circuits were very very small they only

375 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:10,920 had about 16 or 32 gates on them and so

376 00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:13,290 this machine which was quite weak by

377 00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:16,650 today's standards had more than 700 of

378 00:18:13,290 --> 00:18:20,100 those little black boxes in it and so it

379 00:18:16,650 --> 00:18:22,050 generated a lot of heat and then I

380 00:18:20,100 --> 00:18:25,710 happened to see some of seymour papert's

381 00:18:22,050 --> 00:18:27,510 early work with logo and it got me

382 00:18:25,710 --> 00:18:29,600 thinking all of a sudden that computers

383 00:18:27,510 --> 00:18:32,910 were not Veals

384 00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:34,560 computers were like media they were like

385 00:18:32,910 --> 00:18:40,890 media and I suddenly remembered

386 00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:42,270 something quite striking I don't know

387 00:18:40,890 --> 00:18:45,270 how many people here have ever been in a

388 00:18:42,270 --> 00:18:48,450 medieval library there's one still set

389 00:18:45,270 --> 00:18:50,430 up in Florence and what they look like

390 00:18:48,450 --> 00:18:54,210 is there a room about four times this

391 00:18:50,430 --> 00:18:55,770 size there are no shelves why because

392 00:18:54,210 --> 00:18:58,380 most libraries had less than a hundred

393 00:18:55,770 --> 00:19:02,370 books one of the largest libraries in

394 00:18:58,380 --> 00:19:06,570 Europe the Vatican Library in the year

395 00:19:02,370 --> 00:19:09,720 1400 only had 392 books each Brook took

396 00:19:06,570 --> 00:19:13,140 about 10 to 15 years to copy by a group

397 00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:14,910 of group of monks so when he went into a

398 00:19:13,140 --> 00:19:19,800 medieval library what you saw were

399 00:19:14,910 --> 00:19:25,110 tables reading areas each book was

400 00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:27,050 chained to the table table after table

401 00:19:25,110 --> 00:19:29,370 after table about a hundred of them and

402 00:19:27,050 --> 00:19:32,480 so they it flashed into my mind that

403 00:19:29,370 --> 00:19:35,340 looks just like a time-sharing bullpen

404 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:38,790 right time sharing terminals using

405 00:19:35,340 --> 00:19:40,730 something so expensive only an

406 00:19:38,790 --> 00:19:42,720 institution could own it

407 00:19:40,730 --> 00:19:47,730 individuals accept that unless they were

408 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:51,630 kings couldn't own this stuff and then I

409 00:19:47,730 --> 00:19:54,870 flashed to Gutenberg's Bible which was

410 00:19:51,630 --> 00:19:57,660 printed but it was printed in imitation

411 00:19:54,870 --> 00:19:59,400 of this stuff and I suddenly looked at

412 00:19:57,660 --> 00:20:00,780 the Flex machine and said you know that

413 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:05,700 thing looks just like a time-sharing

414 00:20:00,780 --> 00:20:06,809 terminal is this am I just imitating the

415 00:20:05,700 --> 00:20:09,929 past

416 00:20:06,809 --> 00:20:11,789 what is this thing by the way Guttenberg

417 00:20:09,929 --> 00:20:15,990 buy it the first Gutenberg Bibles were

418 00:20:11,789 --> 00:20:19,200 incredibly cheap costs only two years of

419 00:20:15,990 --> 00:20:21,210 a clerks wages to buy one it was about

420 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:24,960 sixty thousand dollars today and if you

421 00:20:21,210 --> 00:20:28,559 think of that if you think of that as

422 00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:30,179 about what a workstation costs expensive

423 00:20:28,559 --> 00:20:31,499 workstation costs compared to the

424 00:20:30,179 --> 00:20:33,960 millions of dollars from one of these

425 00:20:31,499 --> 00:20:37,200 things it is rather cheap but what

426 00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:38,610 flashes of my mind then was the turning

427 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:41,700 point in the development of the book

428 00:20:38,610 --> 00:20:44,669 which was this third stage and that was

429 00:20:41,700 --> 00:20:48,749 done by a guy by the name of Aldous not

430 00:20:44,669 --> 00:20:50,519 Elvis PageMaker that could have been his

431 00:20:48,749 --> 00:20:53,129 name because he was a printer in Venice

432 00:20:50,519 --> 00:20:58,019 that's where the company got their name

433 00:20:53,129 --> 00:20:59,929 Aldus Manutius around 1495 decided books

434 00:20:58,019 --> 00:21:02,580 should not be like this

435 00:20:59,929 --> 00:21:07,200 so the Gutenberg galaxy I mean the

436 00:21:02,580 --> 00:21:08,970 Gutenberg Bible and manuscripts but he

437 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:13,470 decided that book should be the size

438 00:21:08,970 --> 00:21:16,350 they are today you've ever wondered why

439 00:21:13,470 --> 00:21:18,389 books are the size they are today it

440 00:21:16,350 --> 00:21:22,799 could be any size it could be really

441 00:21:18,389 --> 00:21:24,720 small it could be big this size I'll

442 00:21:22,799 --> 00:21:29,070 tell you why because that is the size

443 00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:31,080 that saddlebags were in Venice Aldous

444 00:21:29,070 --> 00:21:33,049 went out and measured saddlebags and

445 00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:35,399 took the average saddlebag size and

446 00:21:33,049 --> 00:21:39,389 decided to print a library or she called

447 00:21:35,399 --> 00:21:40,950 the portable library in 1495 so that

448 00:21:39,389 --> 00:21:43,889 people could take them with now this is

449 00:21:40,950 --> 00:21:45,840 a profound idea because Elvis was the

450 00:21:43,889 --> 00:21:48,720 first person who really realized that

451 00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:52,559 books were now something that could be

452 00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:54,149 lost it was not a crime against humanity

453 00:21:52,559 --> 00:21:58,940 to lose a book because he could go buy

454 00:21:54,149 --> 00:22:01,919 another one okay so that happened around

455 00:21:58,940 --> 00:22:05,179 1495 and suddenly I suddenly realized

456 00:22:01,919 --> 00:22:08,299 that a computer should look like this

457 00:22:05,179 --> 00:22:10,470 should be something the size of a book

458 00:22:08,299 --> 00:22:14,970 should be something that you always have

459 00:22:10,470 --> 00:22:18,450 with you and I made that cardboard model

460 00:22:14,970 --> 00:22:20,770 in 1968 that's what a computer should

461 00:22:18,450 --> 00:22:23,200 look like now just to give you an idea

462 00:22:20,770 --> 00:22:26,710 to try and understand why the the

463 00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:31,090 situation we're in today here is a

464 00:22:26,710 --> 00:22:36,370 completely transitional one this is a

465 00:22:31,090 --> 00:22:39,850 much Stabler form than this one you have

466 00:22:36,370 --> 00:22:44,710 to realize that remember printing was

467 00:22:39,850 --> 00:22:51,460 invented around 1450 to 1450 for Aldous

468 00:22:44,710 --> 00:22:52,660 was 1495 wasn't until 1516 more than 60

469 00:22:51,460 --> 00:22:54,700 years after the printing press was

470 00:22:52,660 --> 00:23:00,030 invented that anybody thought to put

471 00:22:54,700 --> 00:23:02,740 page numbers on a book think about that

472 00:23:00,030 --> 00:23:06,640 how could they have meant notice Elvises

473 00:23:02,740 --> 00:23:08,680 Brooke here has no page numbers how

474 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,940 could they possibly not have done the

475 00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:12,310 reason was is that when you only have

476 00:23:09,940 --> 00:23:14,200 392 books in the world's largest library

477 00:23:12,310 --> 00:23:18,370 and it if you're really rich and you may

478 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:20,080 have at home five or ten books why have

479 00:23:18,370 --> 00:23:21,760 page numbers you know where everything

480 00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:25,240 is books are a celebration of what you

481 00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:27,640 already know so when we think about

482 00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:29,740 computers today one of the things we

483 00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:32,560 have to really understand is that we are

484 00:23:29,740 --> 00:23:35,800 in a transitional phase and that the use

485 00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:38,230 of computers by humans is going to be

486 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:40,300 completely different than it is today

487 00:23:38,230 --> 00:23:42,510 just as the use today is completely

488 00:23:40,300 --> 00:23:45,310 different from what it was 20 years ago

489 00:23:42,510 --> 00:23:47,860 that's the importance of making sharp

490 00:23:45,310 --> 00:23:51,670 boundaries between these different ways

491 00:23:47,860 --> 00:23:53,140 of thinking about things now this all

492 00:23:51,670 --> 00:23:57,310 would have been fantasy and science

493 00:23:53,140 --> 00:24:00,630 fiction except for people like Gordon

494 00:23:57,310 --> 00:24:06,730 Moore Gordon Moore was a physicist in

495 00:24:00,630 --> 00:24:11,110 1965 he published the white part of this

496 00:24:06,730 --> 00:24:12,670 diagram which said you know from 1959

497 00:24:11,110 --> 00:24:18,910 whoops sorry

498 00:24:12,670 --> 00:24:20,260 from 1959 up to about 1965 things have

499 00:24:18,910 --> 00:24:22,750 been improving at about the rate of

500 00:24:20,260 --> 00:24:25,840 factor of two every year in integrated

501 00:24:22,750 --> 00:24:27,460 circuits he said I wonder if that can

502 00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:30,460 continue so he started looking at the

503 00:24:27,460 --> 00:24:32,060 physics of integrated circuits that gave

504 00:24:30,460 --> 00:24:34,220 him this line

505 00:24:32,060 --> 00:24:36,710 a few years later he said this line is

506 00:24:34,220 --> 00:24:38,900 too ambitious I'll predict that it will

507 00:24:36,710 --> 00:24:41,930 grow by a factor of two every two years

508 00:24:38,900 --> 00:24:45,560 which gave him this line and just for

509 00:24:41,930 --> 00:24:48,470 your enjoyment here the purple line is

510 00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:50,210 what actually happened right so it's

511 00:24:48,470 --> 00:24:52,660 grown slightly better it's grown about a

512 00:24:50,210 --> 00:24:56,300 factor of two every eighteen months

513 00:24:52,660 --> 00:25:02,570 since 1965 and Gordon Moore's prediction

514 00:24:56,300 --> 00:25:04,520 was a 30-year prediction now in order to

515 00:25:02,570 --> 00:25:06,860 make this prediction he had to back away

516 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:11,860 he had to do remember my diagram he had

517 00:25:06,860 --> 00:25:14,090 to go away from B because the silicon

518 00:25:11,860 --> 00:25:18,050 that people were using was not a

519 00:25:14,090 --> 00:25:19,400 predictable silicon it was not easy to

520 00:25:18,050 --> 00:25:20,930 make predictions about it so he picked a

521 00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:23,600 simpler way of doing things which is

522 00:25:20,930 --> 00:25:25,910 thought to be too slow and made his

523 00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:27,980 predictions based on that that slow

524 00:25:25,910 --> 00:25:36,920 silicon happens to be a silicon we used

525 00:25:27,980 --> 00:25:39,920 today MOS silicon this single chart if

526 00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:42,860 well understood explains why IBM and Dec

527 00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:44,750 are in such trouble today explains why

528 00:25:42,860 --> 00:25:47,360 we have millions and millions of

529 00:25:44,750 --> 00:25:49,160 personal computers today it explains why

530 00:25:47,360 --> 00:25:51,500 people were not able to predict the

531 00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:53,180 future in a reasonable way because this

532 00:25:51,500 --> 00:25:56,920 is an exponential curve this is talking

533 00:25:53,180 --> 00:26:01,550 about a factor of 10 million change in

534 00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:06,020 20 years so almost everything that we're

535 00:26:01,550 --> 00:26:07,490 doing today is based on this now the

536 00:26:06,020 --> 00:26:10,760 thing is you have to realize about the

537 00:26:07,490 --> 00:26:13,840 human nervous system is that factors of

538 00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:17,260 10 and factors of a hundred change our

539 00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:20,780 qualitative to us they may look on paper

540 00:26:17,260 --> 00:26:23,900 quantitative but a factor of 10 change

541 00:26:20,780 --> 00:26:26,180 in speed is qualitative to us what

542 00:26:23,900 --> 00:26:29,360 happened to IBM because they were aware

543 00:26:26,180 --> 00:26:32,210 of this is they couldn't believe that

544 00:26:29,360 --> 00:26:33,890 this meant anything other than they

545 00:26:32,210 --> 00:26:36,350 would be able to make cheaper mainframes

546 00:26:33,890 --> 00:26:39,620 and make more profit on them they could

547 00:26:36,350 --> 00:26:41,660 not imagine the actual implications of

548 00:26:39,620 --> 00:26:44,150 being able to put an entire computer on

549 00:26:41,660 --> 00:26:45,470 a chip and that there would have to be

550 00:26:44,150 --> 00:26:49,940 millions of them

551 00:26:45,470 --> 00:26:51,470 so they lost they missed so these three

552 00:26:49,940 --> 00:26:53,990 ways of looking at things

553 00:26:51,470 --> 00:26:55,850 I gave names to I called the mainframe

554 00:26:53,990 --> 00:26:58,159 thing institutional computing I called

555 00:26:55,850 --> 00:27:01,460 the desktop machine personal computing

556 00:26:58,159 --> 00:27:06,740 and I called this handheld Aldus type

557 00:27:01,460 --> 00:27:09,470 computer an intimate computer and in the

558 00:27:06,740 --> 00:27:12,679 late 60s I sat down and tried to write

559 00:27:09,470 --> 00:27:15,649 down some of the conclusions that a

560 00:27:12,679 --> 00:27:18,049 person would reach for in each of these

561 00:27:15,649 --> 00:27:19,909 belief structures now another word

562 00:27:18,049 --> 00:27:25,580 that's been devalued almost beyond

563 00:27:19,909 --> 00:27:28,220 repair is paradigm right paradigm is a

564 00:27:25,580 --> 00:27:30,230 belief structure so you could just as

565 00:27:28,220 --> 00:27:31,929 easily say this is the institutional

566 00:27:30,230 --> 00:27:35,830 paradigm the personal computing paradigm

567 00:27:31,929 --> 00:27:39,919 or the intimate paradigm doesn't matter

568 00:27:35,830 --> 00:27:41,600 scientists like paradigms because it is

569 00:27:39,919 --> 00:27:44,330 so hard to think about things that

570 00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:46,519 aren't already around so we play all

571 00:27:44,330 --> 00:27:47,779 kinds of tricks and mind games and one

572 00:27:46,519 --> 00:27:50,029 of the ones that we do is to drive

573 00:27:47,779 --> 00:27:52,639 artificial boundaries between things to

574 00:27:50,029 --> 00:27:55,100 see if we can find differentiation so

575 00:27:52,639 --> 00:27:56,360 this is one of those things saying these

576 00:27:55,100 --> 00:27:57,590 are three different ways of thinking

577 00:27:56,360 --> 00:28:03,340 about the world and what are the

578 00:27:57,590 --> 00:28:06,340 implications whoops sorry about that

579 00:28:03,340 --> 00:28:06,340 the

580 00:28:08,559 --> 00:28:12,919 now what types one of the ways of

581 00:28:11,270 --> 00:28:15,950 thinking about it is what types of data

582 00:28:12,919 --> 00:28:18,200 do you use institutional uses letters

583 00:28:15,950 --> 00:28:20,000 and numbers I discovered just a few

584 00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:21,940 years ago that my Dennis still had those

585 00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:26,090 green and white print out sheets

586 00:28:21,940 --> 00:28:27,710 needless to say I changed Dennis so I

587 00:28:26,090 --> 00:28:33,770 was wondering what other old technology

588 00:28:27,710 --> 00:28:35,150 he might be using there's law by the way

589 00:28:33,770 --> 00:28:39,679 does anybody know who toward more is

590 00:28:35,150 --> 00:28:40,660 here who is Gordon Moore who did Moore's

591 00:28:39,679 --> 00:28:45,799 law

592 00:28:40,660 --> 00:28:49,040 yeah so Moore got a lot of criticism for

593 00:28:45,799 --> 00:28:50,360 that curve and so he decided to do this

594 00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,400 thing well the best way to predict the

595 00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:54,620 future is to invent it so he said let's

596 00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:56,780 found a company to work on MOS silicon

597 00:28:54,620 --> 00:28:59,390 happened to be Intel he's one of the

598 00:28:56,780 --> 00:29:01,090 richest guys in California right now

599 00:28:59,390 --> 00:29:04,400 he's worth more than a billion dollars

600 00:29:01,090 --> 00:29:05,870 from that because of course see when the

601 00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:06,980 astronauts got out in space and they

602 00:29:05,870 --> 00:29:09,200 look back at the earth you know what

603 00:29:06,980 --> 00:29:11,720 they saw they saw something that looked

604 00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:14,900 just like a globe that had been done in

605 00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:16,030 the 19th century that's what science is

606 00:29:14,900 --> 00:29:20,299 all about

607 00:29:16,030 --> 00:29:21,740 no surprises you get out there and if

608 00:29:20,299 --> 00:29:25,400 you've done your work properly you

609 00:29:21,740 --> 00:29:27,470 should see what you expect to see so

610 00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:30,380 Gordon Moore was right and he was able

611 00:29:27,470 --> 00:29:32,290 to get profit from it and if you think

612 00:29:30,380 --> 00:29:34,940 about the implications of Moore's law

613 00:29:32,290 --> 00:29:37,309 you're going to start using bitmap

614 00:29:34,940 --> 00:29:38,510 screens it's one of the first things we

615 00:29:37,309 --> 00:29:41,690 invented at Xerox PARC

616 00:29:38,510 --> 00:29:44,390 because now we could have bits bits

617 00:29:41,690 --> 00:29:47,600 weren't just for computation anymore and

618 00:29:44,390 --> 00:29:51,530 then later on all other media was going

619 00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:53,240 to have to come along and one of the

620 00:29:51,530 --> 00:29:56,660 implications of this is that when you

621 00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:59,870 get into this third stage you're not

622 00:29:56,660 --> 00:30:01,100 going to print printing will go away now

623 00:29:59,870 --> 00:30:03,679 people have been saying that for years

624 00:30:01,100 --> 00:30:07,820 and we have more paper than yes yes I

625 00:30:03,679 --> 00:30:10,910 know but think of it this way when your

626 00:30:07,820 --> 00:30:12,530 information is related in such a way

627 00:30:10,910 --> 00:30:16,640 that all important things are together

628 00:30:12,530 --> 00:30:18,290 you're not going to print it out how

629 00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:20,230 many people here do forecasting by

630 00:30:18,290 --> 00:30:22,820 spreadsheets

631 00:30:20,230 --> 00:30:27,010 okay who does anybody print out the

632 00:30:22,820 --> 00:30:29,750 spreadsheet template no you know why

633 00:30:27,010 --> 00:30:30,890 because what ones you're going to print

634 00:30:29,750 --> 00:30:34,100 out you're going to print out a hundred

635 00:30:30,890 --> 00:30:35,510 of them every one of those things you've

636 00:30:34,100 --> 00:30:38,690 done you change a number and the whole

637 00:30:35,510 --> 00:30:41,410 spreadsheet changes so the multi is to

638 00:30:38,690 --> 00:30:45,170 think about in multimedia are not

639 00:30:41,410 --> 00:30:48,790 combining voice and images the multi is

640 00:30:45,170 --> 00:30:52,730 to think about our multi-dimensional and

641 00:30:48,790 --> 00:30:54,500 multi process so as we go more and more

642 00:30:52,730 --> 00:30:59,510 towards multiply multi dimensional

643 00:30:54,500 --> 00:31:04,310 representations and simulations printing

644 00:30:59,510 --> 00:31:07,970 will kill both of those things and what

645 00:31:04,310 --> 00:31:10,280 we have now is synthetic paper that

646 00:31:07,970 --> 00:31:11,720 comes along just in the nick of time to

647 00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:14,120 save us we can now have all of our

648 00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:17,510 dynamic information structures with us

649 00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:22,460 at all times so printing is finally

650 00:31:17,510 --> 00:31:25,430 going to go away by my friend Nicolas

651 00:31:22,460 --> 00:31:27,320 Monte thought of it this way thought of

652 00:31:25,430 --> 00:31:30,620 the worlds of publishing entertainment

653 00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:32,540 and computing imploding on each other

654 00:31:30,620 --> 00:31:33,650 because now every single one of them

655 00:31:32,540 --> 00:31:35,030 could have everything that they do

656 00:31:33,650 --> 00:31:36,950 represent it digitally

657 00:31:35,030 --> 00:31:38,960 when you have everything represented in

658 00:31:36,950 --> 00:31:42,230 the same form you basically have the

659 00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:45,950 same business they use the same

660 00:31:42,230 --> 00:31:49,310 transmission everybody who has access to

661 00:31:45,950 --> 00:31:52,030 the Internet is a publisher you can

662 00:31:49,310 --> 00:31:55,160 publish just as well as mcgraw-hill can

663 00:31:52,030 --> 00:31:56,870 in fact your if you have access to the

664 00:31:55,160 --> 00:32:00,770 Internet you are actually a miniature

665 00:31:56,870 --> 00:32:02,720 FCC I don't know whether you know it but

666 00:32:00,770 --> 00:32:05,360 people send television programs back and

667 00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:08,030 forth on the on the internet and radio

668 00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:12,140 there's a constant internet radio

669 00:32:08,030 --> 00:32:14,360 between scientists and stuff and there

670 00:32:12,140 --> 00:32:17,480 are no channels were requested from the

671 00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:19,220 FCC because the internet does not care

672 00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:21,830 it's just sending bits back and forth

673 00:32:19,220 --> 00:32:24,950 and the bits can be anything so this is

674 00:32:21,830 --> 00:32:27,740 one again that the publishers in the

675 00:32:24,950 --> 00:32:30,050 entertainment industry only discovered a

676 00:32:27,740 --> 00:32:32,320 couple of years ago and yet it's been

677 00:32:30,050 --> 00:32:35,139 true once more

678 00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:36,759 Wrote is liya this is why this stuff is

679 00:32:35,139 --> 00:32:38,740 scary to people because it seems like

680 00:32:36,759 --> 00:32:40,870 all this stuff is suddenly happening

681 00:32:38,740 --> 00:32:42,909 the reason it's suddenly happening is

682 00:32:40,870 --> 00:32:45,539 people will not believe a disaster until

683 00:32:42,909 --> 00:32:49,870 it's actually in front of their eyes

684 00:32:45,539 --> 00:32:51,580 the whole reason we have eyes is so we

685 00:32:49,870 --> 00:32:54,340 don't have to jump off the cliff to see

686 00:32:51,580 --> 00:32:57,159 if it's dangerous right

687 00:32:54,340 --> 00:32:58,480 we have long distance sensors and we

688 00:32:57,159 --> 00:33:00,279 need the equivalent of long distance

689 00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:04,570 sensors when we're dealing with the

690 00:33:00,279 --> 00:33:10,389 future user interface probably the

691 00:33:04,570 --> 00:33:12,490 biggest change when you're over here you

692 00:33:10,389 --> 00:33:14,200 have a few thousand users perhaps using

693 00:33:12,490 --> 00:33:16,240 an airlines reservation system or a

694 00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:20,230 banking system you can train a few

695 00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:23,860 thousand people there's a factor of a

696 00:33:20,230 --> 00:33:27,990 thousand between these two panels so

697 00:33:23,860 --> 00:33:30,250 millions can't train millions of people

698 00:33:27,990 --> 00:33:32,889 over here there's another factor of a

699 00:33:30,250 --> 00:33:34,960 thousand because this intimate computer

700 00:33:32,889 --> 00:33:37,629 is a lot like a phone in fact it will

701 00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:40,570 have a phone in it so these are billions

702 00:33:37,629 --> 00:33:42,639 of people millions of people it put an

703 00:33:40,570 --> 00:33:46,960 enormous pressure on trying to

704 00:33:42,639 --> 00:33:49,600 understand what it would be like to

705 00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:51,309 actually get computers to do things and

706 00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:53,470 we realized that the big transition

707 00:33:51,309 --> 00:33:56,110 would have to go from being a command

708 00:33:53,470 --> 00:33:57,549 environment like a control panel of a

709 00:33:56,110 --> 00:34:01,389 nuclear reactor that's sort of what a

710 00:33:57,549 --> 00:34:04,360 3270 terminal is like to a learning

711 00:34:01,389 --> 00:34:06,070 environment that's what forced us to

712 00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:09,909 invent what is now called the the

713 00:34:06,070 --> 00:34:14,980 Macintosh style interface now what

714 00:34:09,909 --> 00:34:17,079 happens in the future here is something

715 00:34:14,980 --> 00:34:20,230 even more cataclysmic because this third

716 00:34:17,079 --> 00:34:23,619 panel is energized by pervasive

717 00:34:20,230 --> 00:34:27,010 networking think of the driving forces

718 00:34:23,619 --> 00:34:29,950 driving force for mainframe computers

719 00:34:27,010 --> 00:34:31,089 was actually business IBM didn't want to

720 00:34:29,950 --> 00:34:35,109 build them they wanted to stay in the

721 00:34:31,089 --> 00:34:37,149 punch card business was it was American

722 00:34:35,109 --> 00:34:40,599 business that forced IBM to become a big

723 00:34:37,149 --> 00:34:42,490 company driving force for the second

724 00:34:40,599 --> 00:34:44,109 frame was integrated circuits as we've

725 00:34:42,490 --> 00:34:45,369 been talking about in the driving force

726 00:34:44,109 --> 00:34:47,230 for this third

727 00:34:45,369 --> 00:34:50,710 frame is pervasive networking which is

728 00:34:47,230 --> 00:34:52,329 happening to us now this transition is

729 00:34:50,710 --> 00:34:55,690 going to be complete pretty much by the

730 00:34:52,329 --> 00:34:57,160 year 2000 billions of people are going

731 00:34:55,690 --> 00:35:02,079 to have to be there and so one way of

732 00:34:57,160 --> 00:35:06,279 thinking about this is here you have to

733 00:35:02,079 --> 00:35:08,259 train the user in this one the user

734 00:35:06,279 --> 00:35:10,869 interface teaches the user that's its

735 00:35:08,259 --> 00:35:13,690 main job and in this one the user

736 00:35:10,869 --> 00:35:15,339 interface learns from the user in other

737 00:35:13,690 --> 00:35:17,529 words it actively is trying to

738 00:35:15,339 --> 00:35:21,519 understand the user and what it's what

739 00:35:17,529 --> 00:35:23,470 it's trying to do so one way of thinking

740 00:35:21,519 --> 00:35:25,539 about this is the two ways that we've

741 00:35:23,470 --> 00:35:29,170 had of amplifying our reach have been

742 00:35:25,539 --> 00:35:31,900 tools Macintosh style interface is a

743 00:35:29,170 --> 00:35:34,599 tool based interface it's designed to

744 00:35:31,900 --> 00:35:37,240 work with hand and eye and the other way

745 00:35:34,599 --> 00:35:41,319 we're used to amplifying our reach is

746 00:35:37,240 --> 00:35:44,410 through agents agents are creatures that

747 00:35:41,319 --> 00:35:47,980 can take on our goal structure and carry

748 00:35:44,410 --> 00:35:49,630 out goals in our behalf and what's even

749 00:35:47,980 --> 00:35:53,430 stronger about agencies they can

750 00:35:49,630 --> 00:35:56,980 transmit your goals to other agents

751 00:35:53,430 --> 00:35:59,200 imagine how powerful that is some person

752 00:35:56,980 --> 00:36:01,690 has a few ideas in the middle-east 2000

753 00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:04,660 years ago gets 12 agents to be

754 00:36:01,690 --> 00:36:08,680 interested in it and half the half the

755 00:36:04,660 --> 00:36:12,460 earth is now interested in those same

756 00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:15,999 ideas that's the power of agents over

757 00:36:12,460 --> 00:36:17,200 tools so one of the big transitions

758 00:36:15,999 --> 00:36:20,230 that's going to happen in the next five

759 00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:21,989 years will be the transition from tool

760 00:36:20,230 --> 00:36:28,869 based interfaces which we've just

761 00:36:21,989 --> 00:36:31,599 transitioned into to this softer more

762 00:36:28,869 --> 00:36:34,289 dynamic way of doing things that that

763 00:36:31,599 --> 00:36:37,660 networks are going to force us into

764 00:36:34,289 --> 00:36:43,180 integration of information it's usually

765 00:36:37,660 --> 00:36:45,730 done painfully with files using

766 00:36:43,180 --> 00:36:48,549 relational databases it's it's

767 00:36:45,730 --> 00:36:53,079 incredible to me that after more than 20

768 00:36:48,549 --> 00:36:55,239 years almost 25 years now the less than

769 00:36:53,079 --> 00:36:57,910 half of the databases in America's

770 00:36:55,239 --> 00:37:01,049 fortune 500 companies are relational

771 00:36:57,910 --> 00:37:03,910 I'm sure everybody is aware of that it's

772 00:37:01,049 --> 00:37:08,770 unbelievable most of them are still flat

773 00:37:03,910 --> 00:37:11,319 files and cut and paste in the Macintosh

774 00:37:08,770 --> 00:37:12,789 and then to active components and if we

775 00:37:11,319 --> 00:37:14,890 have time we can talk a little bit more

776 00:37:12,789 --> 00:37:18,400 about that as you go to more and more

777 00:37:14,890 --> 00:37:19,930 complex systems the parts of things have

778 00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:24,240 to take more and more of the initiative

779 00:37:19,930 --> 00:37:26,500 for the linking what kind of software

780 00:37:24,240 --> 00:37:28,869 airline reservation system in

781 00:37:26,500 --> 00:37:30,640 institutional generic tool like a

782 00:37:28,869 --> 00:37:33,369 spreadsheet or a word processor or

783 00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:35,079 desktop publishing system because you

784 00:37:33,369 --> 00:37:36,970 have millions of people buying them the

785 00:37:35,079 --> 00:37:40,049 users have to complete the application

786 00:37:36,970 --> 00:37:45,539 in order to use it and in the future

787 00:37:40,049 --> 00:37:48,400 most of the applications in business

788 00:37:45,539 --> 00:37:50,890 will be done by the end users now it

789 00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:52,480 happens that today in the fortune 500

790 00:37:50,890 --> 00:37:56,020 companies more than half of the

791 00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:58,240 applications that are used in Fortune

792 00:37:56,020 --> 00:38:00,690 500 companies today are done by the end

793 00:37:58,240 --> 00:38:04,089 users not by the IT organization

794 00:38:00,690 --> 00:38:07,329 spreadsheets are the big culprit IT

795 00:38:04,089 --> 00:38:09,400 organizations hate them because they are

796 00:38:07,329 --> 00:38:12,309 and personal computers because they have

797 00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:14,710 to give up control but in fact there is

798 00:38:12,309 --> 00:38:17,049 a way of leveraging the productivity of

799 00:38:14,710 --> 00:38:21,490 users and we'll talk about that a little

800 00:38:17,049 --> 00:38:23,410 bit later each of these 3 belief systems

801 00:38:21,490 --> 00:38:26,920 has a different way of wanting to be

802 00:38:23,410 --> 00:38:30,039 programmed data structures and

803 00:38:26,920 --> 00:38:30,730 procedures are an extremely weak way of

804 00:38:30,039 --> 00:38:33,910 doing things

805 00:38:30,730 --> 00:38:35,470 this is COBOL and see one of the

806 00:38:33,910 --> 00:38:37,569 problems is if you send a data structure

807 00:38:35,470 --> 00:38:39,760 a thousand miles between point a and

808 00:38:37,569 --> 00:38:42,670 point B you pretty much have to matter

809 00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:46,059 transmit a programmer along with it in

810 00:38:42,670 --> 00:38:47,260 order for people to use it the reason is

811 00:38:46,059 --> 00:38:52,029 is that the data structures themselves

812 00:38:47,260 --> 00:38:54,690 are dumb dead things that don't know how

813 00:38:52,029 --> 00:38:57,279 they should be used so objects

814 00:38:54,690 --> 00:38:59,109 particularly at Xerox PARC were invented

815 00:38:57,279 --> 00:39:01,359 so that when you transmit something from

816 00:38:59,109 --> 00:39:03,880 A to B you're also transmitting the

817 00:39:01,359 --> 00:39:06,010 knowledge of how to have how to use it

818 00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:08,430 so the amount of code you have to write

819 00:39:06,010 --> 00:39:10,569 at the other end is very minimal and

820 00:39:08,430 --> 00:39:11,440 networks are going to force a completely

821 00:39:10,569 --> 00:39:12,940 different kind of

822 00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:16,650 jamming paradigm that we call agent

823 00:39:12,940 --> 00:39:22,900 oriented just to give you an idea of

824 00:39:16,650 --> 00:39:25,800 this is about maybe 50 years old to go

825 00:39:22,900 --> 00:39:31,720 back to Von Neumanns original design

826 00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:37,540 this is about 25 plus years old I did my

827 00:39:31,720 --> 00:39:39,790 first language in 67 this one is more

828 00:39:37,540 --> 00:39:41,980 than ten years old they've never heard

829 00:39:39,790 --> 00:39:44,619 of this stuff but in fact people have

830 00:39:41,980 --> 00:39:46,990 been working away in research labs

831 00:39:44,619 --> 00:39:49,180 because looking ahead we could see that

832 00:39:46,990 --> 00:39:50,980 pervasive network was coming and we

833 00:39:49,180 --> 00:39:52,750 realized that classical objects could

834 00:39:50,980 --> 00:39:55,420 not be transmitted willy-nilly around

835 00:39:52,750 --> 00:39:57,819 the world and be able to be components

836 00:39:55,420 --> 00:39:59,530 of things without a lot of work that

837 00:39:57,819 --> 00:40:01,780 calls for a new way of thinking about

838 00:39:59,530 --> 00:40:05,609 programming and this agent oriented way

839 00:40:01,780 --> 00:40:05,609 is the way we think it will work

840 00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:09,730 analogy to architectures the Greeks were

841 00:40:08,109 --> 00:40:14,740 really smart but they never invented the

842 00:40:09,730 --> 00:40:18,609 arch so they were constrained to build

843 00:40:14,740 --> 00:40:19,750 rather small but beautiful temples if

844 00:40:18,609 --> 00:40:21,460 you want to build something bigger you

845 00:40:19,750 --> 00:40:24,490 have to have a different architectural

846 00:40:21,460 --> 00:40:26,440 principle the Gothic arch allowed

847 00:40:24,490 --> 00:40:28,770 cathedrals to be built that were 10

848 00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:31,030 times the size of the Greek temples

849 00:40:28,770 --> 00:40:33,940 interestingly enough there's only

850 00:40:31,030 --> 00:40:35,140 slightly more material in Chartres

851 00:40:33,940 --> 00:40:36,359 Cathedral than there was in the

852 00:40:35,140 --> 00:40:38,560 Parthenon

853 00:40:36,359 --> 00:40:42,760 all right because Gothic cathedrals are

854 00:40:38,560 --> 00:40:44,770 mostly air and windows and then geodesic

855 00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:47,619 domes using a completely different

856 00:40:44,770 --> 00:40:49,180 theory can you can make a geodesic dome

857 00:40:47,619 --> 00:40:51,490 that will go over all of the Gothic

858 00:40:49,180 --> 00:40:53,589 cathedrals made on earth using a

859 00:40:51,490 --> 00:40:55,329 different architecture the way we

860 00:40:53,589 --> 00:40:58,390 improve ourselves is by changing

861 00:40:55,329 --> 00:41:02,980 architectures we have the same IQ we had

862 00:40:58,390 --> 00:41:07,000 ten thousand years ago imagine having an

863 00:41:02,980 --> 00:41:10,070 IQ of 250 in the year 10,000 BC what

864 00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:13,880 could you do not a lot

865 00:41:10,070 --> 00:41:17,060 all right Leonardo probably had an IQ of

866 00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:19,310 250 he did a lot of drawings but he

867 00:41:17,060 --> 00:41:21,530 could hardly build anything because he

868 00:41:19,310 --> 00:41:23,810 wasn't in a place where he could

869 00:41:21,530 --> 00:41:26,360 leverage his IQ you leverage IQ with

870 00:41:23,810 --> 00:41:27,680 knowledge and architectures these are

871 00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:29,870 the thing most important things the

872 00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:32,510 human race comes up with our different

873 00:41:29,870 --> 00:41:34,310 ways of thinking about things that allow

874 00:41:32,510 --> 00:41:38,120 us to appear much smarter than we did

875 00:41:34,310 --> 00:41:39,650 years ago so here's a my favorite

876 00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:43,520 metaphor for the future Nicholas

877 00:41:39,650 --> 00:41:45,040 Negroponte II said once we'll know it's

878 00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:47,870 the future when my left cufflink

879 00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:53,090 communicates with my right cuff link via

880 00:41:47,870 --> 00:41:56,840 satellite this sort of sums it all up

881 00:41:53,090 --> 00:42:02,060 now let me ask you do you think Nicholas

882 00:41:56,840 --> 00:42:04,430 was being facetious no in fact by the

883 00:42:02,060 --> 00:42:06,710 year 2000 you will be able to have a

884 00:42:04,430 --> 00:42:10,310 cuff link size thing that can go up to a

885 00:42:06,710 --> 00:42:12,320 satellite and come down you ever called

886 00:42:10,310 --> 00:42:15,290 at dinner if you have a cellular phone

887 00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:16,730 and your friend has one and you've

888 00:42:15,290 --> 00:42:19,520 talked to each other across the dinner

889 00:42:16,730 --> 00:42:20,960 table with your cellular phones do you

890 00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:27,130 have any idea of where the information

891 00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:31,400 is going in order to come back okay so

892 00:42:27,130 --> 00:42:33,470 this is a way of thinking about I like

893 00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:37,400 this one because it's so so you tray

894 00:42:33,470 --> 00:42:39,440 it's very Nicolas like it's so tray that

895 00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:41,840 it gets people thinking about wow this

896 00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:46,910 is not the computing I thought we were

897 00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:49,730 doing so particularly the future is easy

898 00:42:46,910 --> 00:42:51,380 it hasn't changed in 20 years that's the

899 00:42:49,730 --> 00:42:53,630 number one thing you have to understand

900 00:42:51,380 --> 00:42:56,000 it takes so long to get this stuff out

901 00:42:53,630 --> 00:42:58,280 of labs it takes even longer to convince

902 00:42:56,000 --> 00:43:00,860 venture capitalists and other people to

903 00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:02,570 support it every technology that's going

904 00:43:00,860 --> 00:43:06,140 to affect you in the next 10 years is

905 00:43:02,570 --> 00:43:07,790 already in somebody's lap so one of

906 00:43:06,140 --> 00:43:10,280 things you have to ask yourself do you

907 00:43:07,790 --> 00:43:12,920 pay somebody even half time to go around

908 00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:16,370 and visit the 40 or so labs in the world

909 00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:17,060 that count probably not so how do you

910 00:43:16,370 --> 00:43:19,579 know you're gonna wait until

911 00:43:17,060 --> 00:43:21,229 Businessweek discovers it

912 00:43:19,579 --> 00:43:24,079 they don't understand half of these

913 00:43:21,229 --> 00:43:26,630 technologies most scientists like myself

914 00:43:24,079 --> 00:43:28,910 spend part of our time just visiting

915 00:43:26,630 --> 00:43:30,529 other people's research labs because we

916 00:43:28,910 --> 00:43:34,039 can't wait for journals to come out

917 00:43:30,529 --> 00:43:35,930 journals are always two years behind and

918 00:43:34,039 --> 00:43:38,209 so most of the stuff virtually

919 00:43:35,930 --> 00:43:40,609 everything that is going to affect you

920 00:43:38,209 --> 00:43:42,369 already exists in some demonstratable

921 00:43:40,609 --> 00:43:45,739 form and you should know about it

922 00:43:42,369 --> 00:43:47,599 because those are the actual tools that

923 00:43:45,739 --> 00:43:49,869 we are going to make it possible for you

924 00:43:47,599 --> 00:43:52,759 to build the future that you want okay

925 00:43:49,869 --> 00:43:57,650 now here comes so that was the uplifting

926 00:43:52,759 --> 00:43:59,900 part now the problem with this picture

927 00:43:57,650 --> 00:44:02,359 is that every time a technological

928 00:43:59,900 --> 00:44:03,859 advance comes along almost everybody

929 00:44:02,359 --> 00:44:05,630 tries to automate all of their old

930 00:44:03,859 --> 00:44:06,430 processes we've already talked about

931 00:44:05,630 --> 00:44:08,719 that

932 00:44:06,430 --> 00:44:11,209 that is not the way to do it because

933 00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:13,700 often the technology is not even as good

934 00:44:11,209 --> 00:44:15,739 as the old technology when it starts

935 00:44:13,700 --> 00:44:19,759 automating ever tried to read a couple

936 00:44:15,739 --> 00:44:22,069 of paragraphs off of CRT I think CRTs

937 00:44:19,759 --> 00:44:25,670 are good at automating what books do

938 00:44:22,069 --> 00:44:27,559 they're terrible so what you have to do

939 00:44:25,670 --> 00:44:30,499 is ask Ivan Sutherlands question which

940 00:44:27,559 --> 00:44:32,239 is what else can it do you have to

941 00:44:30,499 --> 00:44:34,729 understand how to leverage the new

942 00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:36,469 properties of this technology that will

943 00:44:34,729 --> 00:44:40,190 lead to new processes in your business

944 00:44:36,469 --> 00:44:42,079 and unfortunately for everybody it's

945 00:44:40,190 --> 00:44:44,599 also going to have to require some

946 00:44:42,079 --> 00:44:47,019 learning on your part this is the thing

947 00:44:44,599 --> 00:44:50,059 that humans hate especially Americans

948 00:44:47,019 --> 00:44:52,930 schools teach us to treat classes as

949 00:44:50,059 --> 00:44:56,420 vaccinations against dread diseases

950 00:44:52,930 --> 00:44:58,130 right remember saying thank God I'm done

951 00:44:56,420 --> 00:45:00,349 with that class I never have to take it

952 00:44:58,130 --> 00:45:03,019 again this is like getting a smallpox

953 00:45:00,349 --> 00:45:06,079 shot thank God I'm done with that

954 00:45:03,019 --> 00:45:07,670 vaccination now I'm safe I never have to

955 00:45:06,079 --> 00:45:09,049 learn anything yet the problem is it

956 00:45:07,670 --> 00:45:11,150 doesn't work like that anymore

957 00:45:09,049 --> 00:45:13,219 in order to leverage the new we have to

958 00:45:11,150 --> 00:45:14,449 learn what the new is in order to do

959 00:45:13,219 --> 00:45:15,430 that we have to understand how the mind

960 00:45:14,449 --> 00:45:18,049 works

961 00:45:15,430 --> 00:45:19,489 my favorite saying in McLuhan's is I

962 00:45:18,049 --> 00:45:22,880 don't know who discovered water but it

963 00:45:19,489 --> 00:45:26,690 wasn't a fish this is our number one

964 00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:29,509 problem what he meant is that we exist

965 00:45:26,690 --> 00:45:31,219 in a goldfish bowl filled with water

966 00:45:29,509 --> 00:45:33,320 that we don't know exists and that water

967 00:45:31,219 --> 00:45:38,130 is called our beliefs

968 00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:40,350 to us we are in reality those people

969 00:45:38,130 --> 00:45:41,970 halfway across the world that think

970 00:45:40,350 --> 00:45:45,120 differently than we do have to be wrong

971 00:45:41,970 --> 00:45:47,310 and therefore we should kill them this

972 00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:49,950 is the way human beings work because

973 00:45:47,310 --> 00:45:53,370 we're not conscious that we don't live

974 00:45:49,950 --> 00:45:57,390 in reality we live in beliefs in fact we

975 00:45:53,370 --> 00:45:59,760 can't ever get to reality can't ever get

976 00:45:57,390 --> 00:46:02,610 to reality there is no reality that we

977 00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:06,060 can get to yeah beliefs and the beliefs

978 00:46:02,610 --> 00:46:08,250 can be good or bad Maps so this this

979 00:46:06,060 --> 00:46:09,990 image I think is perfect if you always

980 00:46:08,250 --> 00:46:12,030 think of yourself as being in a goldfish

981 00:46:09,990 --> 00:46:16,740 bowl you have to ask yourself what color

982 00:46:12,030 --> 00:46:18,590 water am i swimming in right now so one

983 00:46:16,740 --> 00:46:22,860 of the things that we do culturally is

984 00:46:18,590 --> 00:46:24,720 that we teach people are special

985 00:46:22,860 --> 00:46:26,370 goldfish bowls so we have like a

986 00:46:24,720 --> 00:46:31,070 different goldfish bowl and people in

987 00:46:26,370 --> 00:46:31,070 India do or people in Lebanon

988 00:46:34,120 --> 00:46:38,380 okay now take a look at this face upside

989 00:46:36,400 --> 00:46:41,070 down face and see if you can see ting

990 00:46:38,380 --> 00:46:45,130 interesting about it

991 00:46:41,070 --> 00:46:49,720 who's got what do you think the mouth is

992 00:46:45,130 --> 00:46:56,080 what mouth is upside down see anything

993 00:46:49,720 --> 00:46:57,520 else about the picture okay let's let's

994 00:46:56,080 --> 00:46:59,620 pretend we're in a typical American

995 00:46:57,520 --> 00:47:02,640 school or let's say a Wells Fargo

996 00:46:59,620 --> 00:47:06,010 training center

997 00:47:02,640 --> 00:47:10,950 okay the dominant belief in school is

998 00:47:06,010 --> 00:47:14,140 that knowledge is a fluid and the way we

999 00:47:10,950 --> 00:47:16,240 teach it is we transfer drop by drop

1000 00:47:14,140 --> 00:47:19,740 from the full student full teacher

1001 00:47:16,240 --> 00:47:22,780 vessel to the empty student vessel okay

1002 00:47:19,740 --> 00:47:24,160 that fluid is in terms of a language

1003 00:47:22,780 --> 00:47:26,530 like English so let me give you a

1004 00:47:24,160 --> 00:47:27,940 sentence about this picture what we've

1005 00:47:26,530 --> 00:47:31,690 done here is we've taken a picture of a

1006 00:47:27,940 --> 00:47:35,470 young girl extracted her mouth and her

1007 00:47:31,690 --> 00:47:36,790 eyes turn both of them upside down put

1008 00:47:35,470 --> 00:47:39,240 them back into the picture and then

1009 00:47:36,790 --> 00:47:43,030 turned the entire picture upside down

1010 00:47:39,240 --> 00:47:46,350 okay so now you should be quite prepared

1011 00:47:43,030 --> 00:47:46,350 for what it looks like right side up

1012 00:47:49,660 --> 00:47:53,720 now I'm going to turn this back because

1013 00:47:52,190 --> 00:48:00,440 I've discovered nobody will listen to me

1014 00:47:53,720 --> 00:48:02,240 when it's on the other way now you have

1015 00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:05,690 to realize I didn't give you any more

1016 00:48:02,240 --> 00:48:07,430 information the second time right what I

1017 00:48:05,690 --> 00:48:09,200 described in that sentence was exactly

1018 00:48:07,430 --> 00:48:11,329 what you saw and yet you had a reaction

1019 00:48:09,200 --> 00:48:13,490 on the second picture you didn't have

1020 00:48:11,329 --> 00:48:21,099 one on the first who knows what that

1021 00:48:13,490 --> 00:48:21,099 means who's got a theory don't be shy

1022 00:48:21,339 --> 00:48:32,930 why is it worth it why is it worth a

1023 00:48:23,569 --> 00:48:35,230 thousand words because but why yeah but

1024 00:48:32,930 --> 00:48:37,460 why why couldn't you

1025 00:48:35,230 --> 00:48:43,000 why couldn't you picture what it was

1026 00:48:37,460 --> 00:48:47,119 going to look like from my words okay so

1027 00:48:43,000 --> 00:48:49,490 lots of different theory the real what

1028 00:48:47,119 --> 00:48:50,780 what is actually going on here and it's

1029 00:48:49,490 --> 00:48:52,339 been confirmed in a particularly

1030 00:48:50,780 --> 00:48:54,559 striking way as the last four or five

1031 00:48:52,339 --> 00:48:57,500 years is that when you're listening to

1032 00:48:54,559 --> 00:48:59,420 English sentences a part of your brain

1033 00:48:57,500 --> 00:49:04,460 over here and a part of your brain over

1034 00:48:59,420 --> 00:49:05,930 here is active okay and when you're

1035 00:49:04,460 --> 00:49:07,760 looking at pictures a part of your brain

1036 00:49:05,930 --> 00:49:12,619 back here and a part of your brain down

1037 00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:15,589 here particularly for faces is active so

1038 00:49:12,619 --> 00:49:17,059 you're thinking about words completely

1039 00:49:15,589 --> 00:49:18,950 differently and with a different set of

1040 00:49:17,059 --> 00:49:23,089 mechanisms than you're thinking about

1041 00:49:18,950 --> 00:49:24,920 pictures think about that this is why

1042 00:49:23,089 --> 00:49:26,930 McDonald's will never run a print ad

1043 00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:29,260 saying if you eat a McDonald's hamburger

1044 00:49:26,930 --> 00:49:32,779 you'll become a better-looking person

1045 00:49:29,260 --> 00:49:35,750 right because it's absurd in English but

1046 00:49:32,779 --> 00:49:40,069 what do they do they run ads with

1047 00:49:35,750 --> 00:49:42,680 gorgeous people holding hamburgers and a

1048 00:49:40,069 --> 00:49:44,690 different part of your brain a part of

1049 00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:46,490 your brain that remembers very well but

1050 00:49:44,690 --> 00:49:48,799 isn't so good at thinking makes the

1051 00:49:46,490 --> 00:49:51,230 inference the advertisers want them what

1052 00:49:48,799 --> 00:49:53,029 you want you to McLuhan was once asked

1053 00:49:51,230 --> 00:49:54,349 why don't you read psychology books and

1054 00:49:53,029 --> 00:49:56,750 he said well psychologists study white

1055 00:49:54,349 --> 00:49:58,279 rats he says I look to see what

1056 00:49:56,750 --> 00:50:01,299 advertisers are doing they're the ones

1057 00:49:58,279 --> 00:50:01,299 who are studying humans

1058 00:50:04,509 --> 00:50:09,769 this is why the Presidential Debates

1059 00:50:07,160 --> 00:50:12,529 which were three hours long a hundred

1060 00:50:09,769 --> 00:50:16,759 years ago are now two minutes on each

1061 00:50:12,529 --> 00:50:17,809 point on television right because there

1062 00:50:16,759 --> 00:50:21,529 is nothing to think about

1063 00:50:17,809 --> 00:50:23,059 from what television shows you and none

1064 00:50:21,529 --> 00:50:26,119 of the politicians want you to think

1065 00:50:23,059 --> 00:50:28,489 about any of the issues that's why they

1066 00:50:26,119 --> 00:50:29,989 come on television and you don't want to

1067 00:50:28,489 --> 00:50:34,900 think about the issues which is why you

1068 00:50:29,989 --> 00:50:39,859 watch them on television itself and I

1069 00:50:34,900 --> 00:50:43,309 there's an ni there's no one of us there

1070 00:50:39,859 --> 00:50:45,589 are actually lots of us in here thinking

1071 00:50:43,309 --> 00:50:47,679 different ways and most of the time

1072 00:50:45,589 --> 00:50:50,630 we're not aware of it at all

1073 00:50:47,679 --> 00:50:52,579 so Brenner was American psychologist who

1074 00:50:50,630 --> 00:50:55,339 studied this stuff he took a six year

1075 00:50:52,579 --> 00:50:57,529 old kid six year old kids when you pour

1076 00:50:55,339 --> 00:50:59,630 from a squat glass into a tall thin one

1077 00:50:57,529 --> 00:51:02,269 we'll say there's more water in the tall

1078 00:50:59,630 --> 00:51:04,309 thin glass because they're there in

1079 00:51:02,269 --> 00:51:07,640 what's called an iconic reasoning stage

1080 00:51:04,309 --> 00:51:11,029 and this is pretty constant from kid to

1081 00:51:07,640 --> 00:51:13,069 kid around age five or six then Brenner

1082 00:51:11,029 --> 00:51:14,359 did something interesting he's got a kid

1083 00:51:13,069 --> 00:51:16,189 who would say there's more water in the

1084 00:51:14,359 --> 00:51:18,739 tall glass and he covered up the tall

1085 00:51:16,189 --> 00:51:20,119 glass with cardboard and asked the

1086 00:51:18,739 --> 00:51:22,069 question again the kids say oh wait a

1087 00:51:20,119 --> 00:51:24,199 minute there can't be more water where

1088 00:51:22,069 --> 00:51:25,699 were to go where would it come from and

1089 00:51:24,199 --> 00:51:27,799 Brenner took the cardboard away and the

1090 00:51:25,699 --> 00:51:29,839 kid said no look there's more water and

1091 00:51:27,799 --> 00:51:31,819 Brenda put the cardboard back and the

1092 00:51:29,839 --> 00:51:33,079 kid changed his mind again so if you

1093 00:51:31,819 --> 00:51:35,529 have any six-year-olds you'd like to

1094 00:51:33,079 --> 00:51:35,529 torment

1095 00:51:39,470 --> 00:51:47,910 okay what was Brenner exploring who's

1096 00:51:42,809 --> 00:51:50,819 got a theory yeah

1097 00:51:47,910 --> 00:51:56,039 visual versus language visual versus

1098 00:51:50,819 --> 00:51:59,700 symbolic so he said you know there are

1099 00:51:56,039 --> 00:52:01,249 at least three ways we have of knowing

1100 00:51:59,700 --> 00:52:03,539 about the world and probably a lot more

1101 00:52:01,249 --> 00:52:05,460 how many people here have ever

1102 00:52:03,539 --> 00:52:07,109 remembered a route better when they were

1103 00:52:05,460 --> 00:52:17,940 driving the car versus when they were a

1104 00:52:07,109 --> 00:52:21,299 passenger why huh yeah we have a

1105 00:52:17,940 --> 00:52:22,829 kinesthetic mentality this is the one if

1106 00:52:21,299 --> 00:52:24,150 you're a musician you know much a lot

1107 00:52:22,829 --> 00:52:25,739 about this one this is the one that you

1108 00:52:24,150 --> 00:52:29,460 have to get it this is the one that

1109 00:52:25,739 --> 00:52:31,470 learns how to ride the bike so we have

1110 00:52:29,460 --> 00:52:32,940 that's a completely separate one that's

1111 00:52:31,470 --> 00:52:35,180 why you can't just watch somebody

1112 00:52:32,940 --> 00:52:37,019 playing a sport and go out and do it

1113 00:52:35,180 --> 00:52:40,470 it's in a different part of the brain

1114 00:52:37,019 --> 00:52:44,160 it's in a different set of symbols we

1115 00:52:40,470 --> 00:52:46,170 have a visual mentality one of its great

1116 00:52:44,160 --> 00:52:48,299 tricks is how many people here now admit

1117 00:52:46,170 --> 00:52:51,079 it I'll admit it how many people click

1118 00:52:48,299 --> 00:52:51,079 through channels

1119 00:52:51,570 --> 00:52:55,720 how many people here have ever clicked

1120 00:52:53,980 --> 00:52:58,990 into the middle of a movie they haven't

1121 00:52:55,720 --> 00:53:03,490 seen for 20 years how long did it take

1122 00:52:58,990 --> 00:53:07,570 you to recognize that movie a couple of

1123 00:53:03,490 --> 00:53:14,080 seconds think about that now compared to

1124 00:53:07,570 --> 00:53:16,690 school twenty years ago you were with a

1125 00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:18,130 significant other most likely you did

1126 00:53:16,690 --> 00:53:20,920 not have your mind on the movie

1127 00:53:18,130 --> 00:53:24,640 particularly didn't know you're going to

1128 00:53:20,920 --> 00:53:26,820 be tested 20 years later the test was

1129 00:53:24,640 --> 00:53:30,570 random into the center of the thing and

1130 00:53:26,820 --> 00:53:32,740 yet within about 50 frames your visual

1131 00:53:30,570 --> 00:53:34,900 mentality had retrieved that you'd seen

1132 00:53:32,740 --> 00:53:36,130 it before and about half of the time in

1133 00:53:34,900 --> 00:53:37,950 tests that have been done people

1134 00:53:36,130 --> 00:53:40,270 remember what's going to happen next

1135 00:53:37,950 --> 00:53:42,730 think about this in the context of your

1136 00:53:40,270 --> 00:53:47,619 entire life and think of why there are

1137 00:53:42,730 --> 00:53:50,080 icons on a user interface if you put

1138 00:53:47,619 --> 00:53:52,030 pictures of animals up on the wall you

1139 00:53:50,080 --> 00:53:55,990 can find the elephant four times faster

1140 00:53:52,030 --> 00:53:58,990 than pic then words for the animals and

1141 00:53:55,990 --> 00:54:01,540 here's a beautiful one if you put boxes

1142 00:53:58,990 --> 00:54:05,020 around the words you can find the word

1143 00:54:01,540 --> 00:54:09,480 elephant twice as fast then if there

1144 00:54:05,020 --> 00:54:09,480 isn't a box there why

1145 00:54:15,710 --> 00:54:22,309 yeah but basically what happens is the

1146 00:54:17,780 --> 00:54:23,930 Box icon eise's the word the words are

1147 00:54:22,309 --> 00:54:26,059 actually perceived in a different place

1148 00:54:23,930 --> 00:54:30,380 in your brain then then images that

1149 00:54:26,059 --> 00:54:33,770 aren't words see why am I am I telling

1150 00:54:30,380 --> 00:54:37,250 you this stuff because the world is not

1151 00:54:33,770 --> 00:54:39,619 as it seems right we go from day to day

1152 00:54:37,250 --> 00:54:43,910 from moment to moment thinking that

1153 00:54:39,619 --> 00:54:46,099 what's out there is reality it isn't all

1154 00:54:43,910 --> 00:54:48,260 it is is interpretations by that three

1155 00:54:46,099 --> 00:54:52,160 pounds of oatmeal we've got between our

1156 00:54:48,260 --> 00:54:55,300 ears and that three pounds of oatmeal

1157 00:54:52,160 --> 00:54:58,849 can be taught to perceive things any way

1158 00:54:55,300 --> 00:55:01,790 the culture chooses let's look at

1159 00:54:58,849 --> 00:55:05,630 creativity for a second here we are

1160 00:55:01,790 --> 00:55:06,940 plotting along in the pink context you

1161 00:55:05,630 --> 00:55:10,579 can think of this is a goldfish bowl

1162 00:55:06,940 --> 00:55:11,930 we're in a goldfish bowl and when

1163 00:55:10,579 --> 00:55:13,119 somebody wants us to do something the

1164 00:55:11,930 --> 00:55:15,349 best thing we can think of is

1165 00:55:13,119 --> 00:55:18,380 extrapolation or if going from A to B

1166 00:55:15,349 --> 00:55:20,660 problem solving so it's very hard to be

1167 00:55:18,380 --> 00:55:23,540 creative when you stay inside the

1168 00:55:20,660 --> 00:55:26,059 goldfish bowl moments of creativity

1169 00:55:23,540 --> 00:55:29,270 happen when something happens oh yeah

1170 00:55:26,059 --> 00:55:33,290 here's a good example is if you take

1171 00:55:29,270 --> 00:55:37,160 frogs and paralyze their food with a

1172 00:55:33,290 --> 00:55:41,240 little chloroform flies the frog will

1173 00:55:37,160 --> 00:55:44,329 not eat them the Frog cannot see flies

1174 00:55:41,240 --> 00:55:46,430 that aren't moving that's incredible

1175 00:55:44,329 --> 00:55:51,140 but it will try and eat little oblong

1176 00:55:46,430 --> 00:55:52,819 shapes of cardboard that are moving this

1177 00:55:51,140 --> 00:55:54,859 cyan't we scientists love this one

1178 00:55:52,819 --> 00:55:56,630 because we we think of the you know the

1179 00:55:54,859 --> 00:55:58,250 ideas they're all around us if you think

1180 00:55:56,630 --> 00:56:02,240 of the Flies as I did we just can't see

1181 00:55:58,250 --> 00:56:03,799 them they're just there all the time we

1182 00:56:02,240 --> 00:56:06,170 can't see my nervous system won't let us

1183 00:56:03,799 --> 00:56:10,970 do it we're keep on snapping at pieces

1184 00:56:06,170 --> 00:56:13,130 of cardboard but then something great

1185 00:56:10,970 --> 00:56:16,700 happens something makes us look at the

1186 00:56:13,130 --> 00:56:19,460 idea in a different way and bingo we

1187 00:56:16,700 --> 00:56:22,490 have an idea this is why I say terrific

1188 00:56:19,460 --> 00:56:24,650 ideas usually hide behind good ones good

1189 00:56:22,490 --> 00:56:26,420 ones are the ones that you get by logic

1190 00:56:24,650 --> 00:56:28,460 in the same context you're improving

1191 00:56:26,420 --> 00:56:29,000 something this is what engineers like to

1192 00:56:28,460 --> 00:56:30,560 do

1193 00:56:29,000 --> 00:56:34,760 take something it already exists and

1194 00:56:30,560 --> 00:56:36,470 make it better okay you want to get a

1195 00:56:34,760 --> 00:56:39,050 completely new idea you have to have a

1196 00:56:36,470 --> 00:56:41,990 bingo and this bingo operates in

1197 00:56:39,050 --> 00:56:44,060 different areas so Arthur Kessler said

1198 00:56:41,990 --> 00:56:46,460 you know if you're telling a joke this

1199 00:56:44,060 --> 00:56:48,410 is a joke isn't it the joke takes you

1200 00:56:46,460 --> 00:56:50,720 down one path and suddenly reveals

1201 00:56:48,410 --> 00:56:52,460 you're in another context so if it's a

1202 00:56:50,720 --> 00:56:56,840 joke you laugh out loud and sometimes

1203 00:56:52,460 --> 00:56:59,210 you do in science as well science it's

1204 00:56:56,840 --> 00:57:02,390 in humorous ha-ha and science it's a ha

1205 00:56:59,210 --> 00:57:05,450 and an art it's aa because each one of

1206 00:57:02,390 --> 00:57:07,130 these things is designed and is set up

1207 00:57:05,450 --> 00:57:10,280 to take you from the context you're in

1208 00:57:07,130 --> 00:57:14,330 to another context you ever thought of

1209 00:57:10,280 --> 00:57:16,070 having art classes at Wells Fargo ever

1210 00:57:14,330 --> 00:57:20,210 thought of having art classes for your

1211 00:57:16,070 --> 00:57:24,190 kids in school after prop 13 ever wonder

1212 00:57:20,210 --> 00:57:24,190 why people are dull and boring

1213 00:57:32,350 --> 00:57:39,800 yeah aha

1214 00:57:35,530 --> 00:57:41,210 that's the whole point of this talk so

1215 00:57:39,800 --> 00:57:42,620 if we look at Kessler's way of looking

1216 00:57:41,210 --> 00:57:45,170 at things general education is

1217 00:57:42,620 --> 00:57:47,810 incredibly important all that stuff that

1218 00:57:45,170 --> 00:57:50,630 is non pragmatic is actually what we

1219 00:57:47,810 --> 00:57:53,630 need to be creative the reason is that

1220 00:57:50,630 --> 00:57:56,120 if we know lots of things and we're sort

1221 00:57:53,630 --> 00:57:57,740 of meandering our way in the pink

1222 00:57:56,120 --> 00:58:01,040 context where I can we usually are just

1223 00:57:57,740 --> 00:58:03,080 our subconscious mind makes little

1224 00:58:01,040 --> 00:58:06,350 ripples into these other things that we

1225 00:58:03,080 --> 00:58:07,850 know it's like a little ripple into the

1226 00:58:06,350 --> 00:58:09,650 blue context for a second and then

1227 00:58:07,850 --> 00:58:11,300 flashing back out because the the pink

1228 00:58:09,650 --> 00:58:12,890 context said oh no that's not what we're

1229 00:58:11,300 --> 00:58:15,170 talking about so these little

1230 00:58:12,890 --> 00:58:17,240 distractions that are going on people

1231 00:58:15,170 --> 00:58:21,680 who are good creative thinkers know how

1232 00:58:17,240 --> 00:58:23,270 to make those distractions appear they

1233 00:58:21,680 --> 00:58:26,410 get them out of their subconscious and

1234 00:58:23,270 --> 00:58:29,810 can make them explode into these ideas

1235 00:58:26,410 --> 00:58:34,310 the more you know the more context you

1236 00:58:29,810 --> 00:58:38,120 have to change from the way you're

1237 00:58:34,310 --> 00:58:38,720 thinking into some new way here's

1238 00:58:38,120 --> 00:58:41,950 another problem

1239 00:58:38,720 --> 00:58:44,210 I love frogs they're just the best

1240 00:58:41,950 --> 00:58:47,990 example we probably all of us had front

1241 00:58:44,210 --> 00:58:50,240 have frog blood in us there's another

1242 00:58:47,990 --> 00:58:51,770 thing you can do with a frog you can put

1243 00:58:50,240 --> 00:58:55,430 it in a pot of water and turn on the

1244 00:58:51,770 --> 00:58:58,010 heat really low and that frogs nervous

1245 00:58:55,430 --> 00:59:00,560 system is not set up to detect absolute

1246 00:58:58,010 --> 00:59:04,070 temperature so it will never climb out

1247 00:59:00,560 --> 00:59:07,880 of the pot you'll just sit there and

1248 00:59:04,070 --> 00:59:09,290 gradually boil now the Frog the previous

1249 00:59:07,880 --> 00:59:12,840 frog with the Flies I think of as

1250 00:59:09,290 --> 00:59:16,869 science this one I think of his business

1251 00:59:12,840 --> 00:59:16,869 [Laughter]

1252 00:59:18,330 --> 00:59:24,610 let's be really careful and deliberate

1253 00:59:22,240 --> 00:59:33,580 and we'll really think this out and

1254 00:59:24,610 --> 00:59:35,830 meanwhile okay here's for about a

1255 00:59:33,580 --> 00:59:42,010 hundred thousand years ago here are some

1256 00:59:35,830 --> 00:59:44,770 hand axes so here's here's one of the

1257 00:59:42,010 --> 00:59:48,700 earliest tools that humans used you

1258 00:59:44,770 --> 00:59:51,250 notice it has a flaw in the design when

1259 00:59:48,700 --> 00:59:54,220 you pound on it this goes into your palm

1260 00:59:51,250 --> 00:59:57,100 you pound on it it pounds back into your

1261 00:59:54,220 --> 00:59:58,750 palm and later on they made an

1262 00:59:57,100 --> 01:00:00,790 improvement is they flattened out this

1263 00:59:58,750 --> 01:00:03,550 part so when you pound on it it wouldn't

1264 01:00:00,790 --> 01:00:05,380 pound back into your palm and the thing

1265 01:00:03,550 --> 01:00:07,570 I like especially about this is that the

1266 01:00:05,380 --> 01:00:08,890 interval of time between the picture on

1267 01:00:07,570 --> 01:00:13,930 the left and the picture on the right is

1268 01:00:08,890 --> 01:00:15,310 about two hundred thousand years you can

1269 01:00:13,930 --> 01:00:16,840 imagine every once in a while somebody

1270 01:00:15,310 --> 01:00:18,160 in a village would say you know if we

1271 01:00:16,840 --> 01:00:21,780 just flattened this thing off and they

1272 01:00:18,160 --> 01:00:21,780 take this guy and burn him at the stake

1273 01:00:21,980 --> 01:00:32,400 going against tradition the way it's

1274 01:00:26,849 --> 01:00:33,750 always been done against reality because

1275 01:00:32,400 --> 01:00:34,680 the problem is that every time somebody

1276 01:00:33,750 --> 01:00:36,119 does something like this they're

1277 01:00:34,680 --> 01:00:38,160 actually violating somebody else's

1278 01:00:36,119 --> 01:00:39,990 notion of reality that is why people

1279 01:00:38,160 --> 01:00:42,089 hang on so much they're willing to do

1280 01:00:39,990 --> 01:00:45,539 almost anything rather than be pulled

1281 01:00:42,089 --> 01:00:48,119 out of what they're comfortable with so

1282 01:00:45,539 --> 01:00:52,190 basically what we are today are cave

1283 01:00:48,119 --> 01:00:52,190 people with briefcases

1284 01:00:53,509 --> 01:00:59,400 we're the same genetically as we were a

1285 01:00:56,099 --> 01:01:01,559 hundred thousand years ago but instead

1286 01:00:59,400 --> 01:01:04,559 of being able to learn our culture by

1287 01:01:01,559 --> 01:01:06,059 age 7 or 8 and then committing to it for

1288 01:01:04,559 --> 01:01:08,039 the rest of our life we actually have

1289 01:01:06,059 --> 01:01:12,569 major changes every three or four years

1290 01:01:08,039 --> 01:01:14,609 this is what is screwing us up and when

1291 01:01:12,569 --> 01:01:18,950 a crisis comes along how do we do it we

1292 01:01:14,609 --> 01:01:21,269 use our guts one of my favorite things

1293 01:01:18,950 --> 01:01:22,559 in the paper a couple of days ago in the

1294 01:01:21,269 --> 01:01:27,990 New York Times maybe you saw in the

1295 01:01:22,559 --> 01:01:31,769 business section it said the Fed uses

1296 01:01:27,990 --> 01:01:35,339 its instinct to set the the interest

1297 01:01:31,769 --> 01:01:37,680 rate they said we use our instinct to

1298 01:01:35,339 --> 01:01:39,750 set the ants they're talking about an

1299 01:01:37,680 --> 01:01:40,920 economy with millions and millions of

1300 01:01:39,750 --> 01:01:45,359 different parts and they're trying to

1301 01:01:40,920 --> 01:01:47,730 use their instinct yeah this is like

1302 01:01:45,359 --> 01:01:50,220 voodoo

1303 01:01:47,730 --> 01:01:51,480 another one I saw today and the USA

1304 01:01:50,220 --> 01:01:54,930 Today was good there was a spokesman

1305 01:01:51,480 --> 01:01:57,150 from the tobacco Institute saying they

1306 01:01:54,930 --> 01:01:59,369 did a survey that showed that many more

1307 01:01:57,150 --> 01:02:01,049 people in America knew that cigarette

1308 01:01:59,369 --> 01:02:03,059 smoking was dangerous to their health

1309 01:02:01,049 --> 01:02:06,180 than new who gave the Sermon on the

1310 01:02:03,059 --> 01:02:07,680 Mount it's only one in three knew it was

1311 01:02:06,180 --> 01:02:10,410 Jesus that gave the Sermon on the Mount

1312 01:02:07,680 --> 01:02:12,450 but 80 percent of the people in America

1313 01:02:10,410 --> 01:02:16,859 and almost everybody who smoked knew it

1314 01:02:12,450 --> 01:02:18,900 was dangerous so why don't they quit my

1315 01:02:16,859 --> 01:02:21,690 cardiologist I talked to a couple of

1316 01:02:18,900 --> 01:02:26,369 months ago said 300,000 Americans will

1317 01:02:21,690 --> 01:02:28,589 die this year from cardiovascular

1318 01:02:26,369 --> 01:02:30,569 disease that was easily preventable by

1319 01:02:28,589 --> 01:02:31,980 just changing that we're told by their

1320 01:02:30,569 --> 01:02:34,680 doctors that all I had to do is change

1321 01:02:31,980 --> 01:02:37,319 their diet and exercise patterns why not

1322 01:02:34,680 --> 01:02:39,089 they quit the reason is our nervous

1323 01:02:37,319 --> 01:02:41,400 system is not set up to be interested in

1324 01:02:39,089 --> 01:02:44,490 long-term events it's set up to be wary

1325 01:02:41,400 --> 01:02:47,490 of saber-tooth Tigers we love short

1326 01:02:44,490 --> 01:02:51,390 quick remember Jessica McClure little

1327 01:02:47,490 --> 01:02:52,980 girl in the well in Texas 58 hours she

1328 01:02:51,390 --> 01:02:54,510 was in there and many Americans watch

1329 01:02:52,980 --> 01:02:56,940 that almost continuously see what

1330 01:02:54,510 --> 01:02:59,040 happened during those 58 hours a hundred

1331 01:02:56,940 --> 01:03:03,079 and five thousand children in the world

1332 01:02:59,040 --> 01:03:09,359 died from preventable causes every year

1333 01:03:03,079 --> 01:03:10,950 in 94 in 93 there's a holocaust worth of

1334 01:03:09,359 --> 01:03:14,970 children dying from preventable causes

1335 01:03:10,950 --> 01:03:17,160 10 million dying from starvation and

1336 01:03:14,970 --> 01:03:19,410 dehydration and so forth we can't even

1337 01:03:17,160 --> 01:03:21,299 deal with it we can't imagine it and so

1338 01:03:19,410 --> 01:03:24,270 we fastened on to one little girl in a

1339 01:03:21,299 --> 01:03:25,579 well who wasn't even hurt right this is

1340 01:03:24,270 --> 01:03:29,270 nuts

1341 01:03:25,579 --> 01:03:29,270 this is not sane

1342 01:03:33,000 --> 01:03:41,490 our mind is tiny we look at an epidemic

1343 01:03:37,470 --> 01:03:46,380 when it's starting off through a little

1344 01:03:41,490 --> 01:03:48,960 keyhole you see nothing that's what

1345 01:03:46,380 --> 01:03:52,530 happened when aids was announced every

1346 01:03:48,960 --> 01:03:56,520 scientist in this country knew that if

1347 01:03:52,530 --> 01:03:59,400 you have a disease that is contagious

1348 01:03:56,520 --> 01:04:02,970 fatal and you don't have a cure you have

1349 01:03:59,400 --> 01:04:05,730 one of these guys but nobody could see

1350 01:04:02,970 --> 01:04:06,840 it and so nobody did anything you know

1351 01:04:05,730 --> 01:04:10,440 many people are going to die in Africa

1352 01:04:06,840 --> 01:04:13,109 in the next 12 years 35 million young

1353 01:04:10,440 --> 01:04:14,130 Vinney in the Pacific Rim 42 million

1354 01:04:13,109 --> 01:04:16,619 according to the World Health

1355 01:04:14,130 --> 01:04:19,950 Organization they're politicians still

1356 01:04:16,619 --> 01:04:24,990 don't get it because nobody is dying

1357 01:04:19,950 --> 01:04:27,599 like that now we can't use our common

1358 01:04:24,990 --> 01:04:29,609 sense to deal with the complexity of the

1359 01:04:27,599 --> 01:04:31,349 world that are in today we have to use

1360 01:04:29,609 --> 01:04:35,340 something beyond common sense we have to

1361 01:04:31,349 --> 01:04:37,320 use symbolic models of the world because

1362 01:04:35,340 --> 01:04:40,950 we have to do something before we just

1363 01:04:37,320 --> 01:04:44,580 walk off the cliff so the whole whole

1364 01:04:40,950 --> 01:04:47,460 problem that I'm talking about here has

1365 01:04:44,580 --> 01:04:50,010 to do with dealing with things that are

1366 01:04:47,460 --> 01:04:53,280 more complex than our common sense was

1367 01:04:50,010 --> 01:04:55,710 set up for problem solving which is what

1368 01:04:53,280 --> 01:04:58,680 these teach in school is a terrible way

1369 01:04:55,710 --> 01:05:00,990 of getting ahead mosquitoes

1370 01:04:58,680 --> 01:05:02,940 solve it with DDT wind up with more

1371 01:05:00,990 --> 01:05:04,170 mosquitoes because you're not just

1372 01:05:02,940 --> 01:05:07,040 working with mosquitoes you're working

1373 01:05:04,170 --> 01:05:09,240 with an ecology the DDT kills the fish

1374 01:05:07,040 --> 01:05:11,130 mosquitoes breed faster than the fish

1375 01:05:09,240 --> 01:05:13,109 the mosquitoes breed resistant strains

1376 01:05:11,130 --> 01:05:15,119 faster than the fish you wind up with

1377 01:05:13,109 --> 01:05:17,339 less fish and they were eating most of

1378 01:05:15,119 --> 01:05:18,630 the larvae of the mosquitoes and all of

1379 01:05:17,339 --> 01:05:20,580 a sudden you have more mosquitoes and

1380 01:05:18,630 --> 01:05:23,220 the DDT doesn't work anymore this is

1381 01:05:20,580 --> 01:05:25,980 what happens time after time because the

1382 01:05:23,220 --> 01:05:27,359 truth is is that we're involved in very

1383 01:05:25,980 --> 01:05:29,250 complex systems and you should be aware

1384 01:05:27,359 --> 01:05:33,690 of this I'm sure being in the banking

1385 01:05:29,250 --> 01:05:34,920 business it's nonlinear it's not

1386 01:05:33,690 --> 01:05:36,510 something that you can sit and turn a

1387 01:05:34,920 --> 01:05:38,849 couple of dots and know what's going to

1388 01:05:36,510 --> 01:05:41,300 happen like the Fed tries to do with the

1389 01:05:38,849 --> 01:05:41,300 economy

1390 01:05:42,160 --> 01:05:47,960 quality doesn't work three recent

1391 01:05:45,830 --> 01:05:53,870 winners of the Baldrige award General

1392 01:05:47,960 --> 01:05:56,360 Motors IBM and Dec why does equality

1393 01:05:53,870 --> 01:05:58,460 work because the only way you can get

1394 01:05:56,360 --> 01:06:00,950 Six Sigma good at something is to have

1395 01:05:58,460 --> 01:06:02,510 done it for a long time and in this

1396 01:06:00,950 --> 01:06:05,570 high-tech world that means you're

1397 01:06:02,510 --> 01:06:07,640 obsolete long before you ever get there

1398 01:06:05,570 --> 01:06:09,850 Bill Gates doesn't want Microsoft to

1399 01:06:07,640 --> 01:06:12,230 ever get Six Sigma good at what they do

1400 01:06:09,850 --> 01:06:15,850 that's not the thing what you have to be

1401 01:06:12,230 --> 01:06:18,110 is be fitted to the times as they are

1402 01:06:15,850 --> 01:06:19,670 not getting really you can only get

1403 01:06:18,110 --> 01:06:20,860 really great at something if it's not

1404 01:06:19,670 --> 01:06:23,630 going to change on you

1405 01:06:20,860 --> 01:06:29,570 so total quality management is a farce

1406 01:06:23,630 --> 01:06:32,330 in high tech arenas so coming back you

1407 01:06:29,570 --> 01:06:33,860 have to look at McLuhan again I don't

1408 01:06:32,330 --> 01:06:36,200 know who discovered water but it wasn't

1409 01:06:33,860 --> 01:06:43,220 a fish we have to try and make that work

1410 01:06:36,200 --> 01:06:46,520 for us this time I'm going to actually

1411 01:06:43,220 --> 01:06:49,760 going to skip over the video and just go

1412 01:06:46,520 --> 01:06:52,730 to this so the trick behind this stuff

1413 01:06:49,760 --> 01:06:54,500 is you can only learn to see when you

1414 01:06:52,730 --> 01:06:58,730 realize you're blind you have to admit

1415 01:06:54,500 --> 01:07:00,370 it this is what scientists do in order

1416 01:06:58,730 --> 01:07:03,680 to deal with science you have to ignore

1417 01:07:00,370 --> 01:07:05,540 what your hands tell you about touching

1418 01:07:03,680 --> 01:07:08,420 things what your eyes tell you about the

1419 01:07:05,540 --> 01:07:10,820 world and you have to try and dig deeper

1420 01:07:08,420 --> 01:07:14,710 than what your senses and common sense

1421 01:07:10,820 --> 01:07:14,710 are telling you it is really hard to do

1422 01:07:15,220 --> 01:07:18,830 so one of things you can do is you can

1423 01:07:17,210 --> 01:07:23,660 make a better goldfish ball this is what

1424 01:07:18,830 --> 01:07:26,570 Wells Fargo should do difference between

1425 01:07:23,660 --> 01:07:28,100 four hundred years ago coming out of the

1426 01:07:26,570 --> 01:07:30,770 Middle Ages and the Renaissance and now

1427 01:07:28,100 --> 01:07:32,180 is that we're now self-conscious about

1428 01:07:30,770 --> 01:07:35,480 these goldfish bowls and we can

1429 01:07:32,180 --> 01:07:37,820 structure them when you do something

1430 01:07:35,480 --> 01:07:40,640 like an programming language you're

1431 01:07:37,820 --> 01:07:42,050 making a goldfish bowl for people it's a

1432 01:07:40,640 --> 01:07:45,140 paradigm it's a collection of beliefs

1433 01:07:42,050 --> 01:07:47,360 it's a way of doing things these things

1434 01:07:45,140 --> 01:07:48,980 are incredibly powerful because of the

1435 01:07:47,360 --> 01:07:51,350 way our minds work we can't change the

1436 01:07:48,980 --> 01:07:53,690 way our minds work in any direct way but

1437 01:07:51,350 --> 01:07:55,819 we can change the context in which they

1438 01:07:53,690 --> 01:07:59,970 do work

1439 01:07:55,819 --> 01:08:02,240 we see what we know if you take most

1440 01:07:59,970 --> 01:08:04,799 people who did it drawing like this

1441 01:08:02,240 --> 01:08:07,440 would be thrown out of art class in fact

1442 01:08:04,799 --> 01:08:09,299 this person was this is what they did

1443 01:08:07,440 --> 01:08:12,359 after just a couple of months later a

1444 01:08:09,299 --> 01:08:16,889 self-portrait of themselves and this is

1445 01:08:12,359 --> 01:08:19,859 another portrait done by the person who

1446 01:08:16,889 --> 01:08:23,159 did this picture on the top after about

1447 01:08:19,859 --> 01:08:26,790 three months in fact you can become an

1448 01:08:23,159 --> 01:08:30,659 incredibly good artist in almost any

1449 01:08:26,790 --> 01:08:32,370 area in just a few months our ability to

1450 01:08:30,659 --> 01:08:33,920 learn things is much much greater than

1451 01:08:32,370 --> 01:08:38,690 we think

1452 01:08:33,920 --> 01:08:40,679 in fact most people are more ignorant

1453 01:08:38,690 --> 01:08:42,359 most people think of themselves as

1454 01:08:40,679 --> 01:08:44,850 stupid but they're actually smarter than

1455 01:08:42,359 --> 01:08:46,199 they think they are the problem is that

1456 01:08:44,850 --> 01:08:49,500 most people know less than they think

1457 01:08:46,199 --> 01:08:51,210 they do all right so we're constrained

1458 01:08:49,500 --> 01:08:53,790 much more by what we know about the

1459 01:08:51,210 --> 01:08:56,310 world than what our latent abilities are

1460 01:08:53,790 --> 01:08:57,480 we can make these multiple mentalities

1461 01:08:56,310 --> 01:09:01,529 which are always fighting each other

1462 01:08:57,480 --> 01:09:04,259 work for us for instance this is this is

1463 01:09:01,529 --> 01:09:10,500 sorry this is almost illegible but this

1464 01:09:04,259 --> 01:09:11,969 is a coherent essay a page long done by

1465 01:09:10,500 --> 01:09:17,040 a five-year-old and she'd only been

1466 01:09:11,969 --> 01:09:20,730 writing for about three months three or

1467 01:09:17,040 --> 01:09:23,069 four months of course second and third

1468 01:09:20,730 --> 01:09:25,949 graders often don't write very coherent

1469 01:09:23,069 --> 01:09:27,779 essays so how do how did the teacher get

1470 01:09:25,949 --> 01:09:30,179 her to write this coherent essays well

1471 01:09:27,779 --> 01:09:32,969 it happens that children especially

1472 01:09:30,179 --> 01:09:35,370 can't sequence symbolically the symbolic

1473 01:09:32,969 --> 01:09:37,080 part of their mind isn't set up for

1474 01:09:35,370 --> 01:09:39,449 sequencing but they can do really good

1475 01:09:37,080 --> 01:09:41,699 sequencing iconically so what the

1476 01:09:39,449 --> 01:09:44,609 teacher had the child do is to draw a

1477 01:09:41,699 --> 01:09:47,190 movie of the story she had in mind all

1478 01:09:44,609 --> 01:09:48,839 children even we've tested children down

1479 01:09:47,190 --> 01:09:53,310 to the age of even three and a half and

1480 01:09:48,839 --> 01:09:54,860 four can draw a coherent storyboards try

1481 01:09:53,310 --> 01:09:57,060 this with your children

1482 01:09:54,860 --> 01:09:58,830 you'll also notice something really

1483 01:09:57,060 --> 01:10:00,300 strange and wonderful when they're

1484 01:09:58,830 --> 01:10:03,120 drawing the storyboard they can draw

1485 01:10:00,300 --> 01:10:05,489 better than when they draw a regular

1486 01:10:03,120 --> 01:10:07,840 drawing there's something about the

1487 01:10:05,489 --> 01:10:11,180 focusing of it we still don't understand

1488 01:10:07,840 --> 01:10:12,740 then having done a coherent story board

1489 01:10:11,180 --> 01:10:15,140 over there the teacher then says write

1490 01:10:12,740 --> 01:10:17,480 one or two sentences about each of the

1491 01:10:15,140 --> 01:10:19,100 panels and when the child does that they

1492 01:10:17,480 --> 01:10:21,080 get a coherent essay that has a

1493 01:10:19,100 --> 01:10:27,200 beginning middle and end now is that

1494 01:10:21,080 --> 01:10:29,380 cheating is it I don't think so I mean

1495 01:10:27,200 --> 01:10:32,840 if that's cheating calculus is cheating

1496 01:10:29,380 --> 01:10:36,230 right the whole idea is we have to cheat

1497 01:10:32,840 --> 01:10:40,130 we're not smart enough not to get by

1498 01:10:36,230 --> 01:10:47,260 without finding these scaffolds we can

1499 01:10:40,130 --> 01:10:47,260 work our buns off in the wrong context

1500 01:10:48,370 --> 01:10:55,280 well three mentalities how about a way

1501 01:10:51,770 --> 01:10:58,280 of grabbing things for user-interface

1502 01:10:55,280 --> 01:11:00,860 how about a way of using our ability to

1503 01:10:58,280 --> 01:11:03,770 remember things in terms of images and

1504 01:11:00,860 --> 01:11:05,690 how about a way of dealing with symbolic

1505 01:11:03,770 --> 01:11:06,850 renderings of those things and if you

1506 01:11:05,690 --> 01:11:10,670 put those together

1507 01:11:06,850 --> 01:11:12,140 you get this machine in this interface

1508 01:11:10,670 --> 01:11:14,540 that's how it came about

1509 01:11:12,140 --> 01:11:17,180 we took a psychological model about the

1510 01:11:14,540 --> 01:11:18,650 way people actually seem to think spend

1511 01:11:17,180 --> 01:11:21,020 a couple of years trying to understand

1512 01:11:18,650 --> 01:11:23,870 it in the terms of communication between

1513 01:11:21,020 --> 01:11:26,360 human and machine and came up with a

1514 01:11:23,870 --> 01:11:29,540 much better way of doing a user

1515 01:11:26,360 --> 01:11:35,270 interface so the whole point here is

1516 01:11:29,540 --> 01:11:36,710 that by changing the context in which

1517 01:11:35,270 --> 01:11:40,190 you're in which you're thinking about

1518 01:11:36,710 --> 01:11:41,810 things you can change the results not in

1519 01:11:40,190 --> 01:11:44,990 quantitative ways but in qualitative

1520 01:11:41,810 --> 01:11:48,020 ways so the strongest weapon that you

1521 01:11:44,990 --> 01:11:51,280 have for exploring the future is the one

1522 01:11:48,020 --> 01:11:54,400 between your ears providing it's loaded

1523 01:11:51,280 --> 01:11:54,400 thank you

1524 01:12:05,710 --> 01:12:11,260 okay

1525 01:12:07,960 --> 01:12:18,140 now we have time for some some questions

1526 01:12:11,260 --> 01:12:24,130 and I love to answer questions so please

1527 01:12:18,140 --> 01:12:24,130 don't be shy yes

1528 01:12:36,459 --> 01:12:42,519 well I think I think everybody heard

1529 01:12:39,159 --> 01:12:47,349 that didn't they basically is saying

1530 01:12:42,519 --> 01:12:49,570 from experiences that I've had being on

1531 01:12:47,349 --> 01:12:52,539 advisory boards and so forth and talking

1532 01:12:49,570 --> 01:12:53,320 to large companies what mistakes do

1533 01:12:52,539 --> 01:12:56,159 people make

1534 01:12:53,320 --> 01:12:59,880 well mistake is the wrong word because

1535 01:12:56,159 --> 01:13:05,170 the it's very it's quite rare for

1536 01:12:59,880 --> 01:13:07,059 companies to actually make mistakes what

1537 01:13:05,170 --> 01:13:10,599 they do is to do things perfectly

1538 01:13:07,059 --> 01:13:12,130 logically in the wrong place right and

1539 01:13:10,599 --> 01:13:15,939 those aren't really mistakes they're

1540 01:13:12,130 --> 01:13:18,570 ill-chosen paths so the one of the major

1541 01:13:15,939 --> 01:13:22,449 things that companies don't do is to

1542 01:13:18,570 --> 01:13:23,979 even look at this country as a model

1543 01:13:22,449 --> 01:13:28,780 this country doesn't have zillions of

1544 01:13:23,979 --> 01:13:31,300 rules compared to say Germany it has a

1545 01:13:28,780 --> 01:13:35,199 constitution the constitution is kind of

1546 01:13:31,300 --> 01:13:41,469 the DNA and it's designed to provide

1547 01:13:35,199 --> 01:13:44,769 maximum diversity and still allow us to

1548 01:13:41,469 --> 01:13:46,590 argue with each other right science what

1549 01:13:44,769 --> 01:13:50,709 happened when science was invented is

1550 01:13:46,590 --> 01:13:52,900 people basically started saying this is

1551 01:13:50,709 --> 01:13:56,650 coming out of the 15th and 16th

1552 01:13:52,900 --> 01:13:59,289 centuries was saying when Galileo's

1553 01:13:56,650 --> 01:14:02,439 telescope showed the four moons of

1554 01:13:59,289 --> 01:14:05,559 Jupiter orbiting around a center in the

1555 01:14:02,439 --> 01:14:09,969 heavens that wasn't the earth it toppled

1556 01:14:05,559 --> 01:14:12,939 the church's cosmology because this was

1557 01:14:09,969 --> 01:14:18,219 dogma right this was actually the Word

1558 01:14:12,939 --> 01:14:19,689 of God that there was only one Center of

1559 01:14:18,219 --> 01:14:22,119 motion in the universe and that was the

1560 01:14:19,689 --> 01:14:23,889 earth so that was devastating basically

1561 01:14:22,119 --> 01:14:26,139 the the conclusion that people came from

1562 01:14:23,889 --> 01:14:28,689 that is we can't get involved in dogma

1563 01:14:26,139 --> 01:14:30,550 if we're going to get ahead the problem

1564 01:14:28,689 --> 01:14:32,349 is if you don't get involved in dogma

1565 01:14:30,550 --> 01:14:35,229 how can you do anything all right isn't

1566 01:14:32,349 --> 01:14:37,989 everybody's opinion the same right so

1567 01:14:35,229 --> 01:14:39,459 this is misplaced democracy everybody's

1568 01:14:37,989 --> 01:14:41,110 opinion is say no everybody's opinion

1569 01:14:39,459 --> 01:14:42,939 isn't the same so how do you resolve

1570 01:14:41,110 --> 01:14:45,729 that the way he resolved it is setting

1571 01:14:42,939 --> 01:14:48,070 up a system for argument science is a

1572 01:14:45,729 --> 01:14:49,809 system for argument as Richard Feynman

1573 01:14:48,070 --> 01:14:50,230 likes to say science means you don't

1574 01:14:49,809 --> 01:14:53,320 have to

1575 01:14:50,230 --> 01:14:56,310 trust the experts right because there's

1576 01:14:53,320 --> 01:15:00,370 no scientific claim that you can't test

1577 01:14:56,310 --> 01:15:02,680 you don't have to believe anybody but if

1578 01:15:00,370 --> 01:15:05,380 you want to play in science you have to

1579 01:15:02,680 --> 01:15:07,630 be tough on the argument so what most

1580 01:15:05,380 --> 01:15:10,750 companies don't do is to set up a

1581 01:15:07,630 --> 01:15:12,130 situation where they can argue well most

1582 01:15:10,750 --> 01:15:15,600 companies are terrible at arguing

1583 01:15:12,130 --> 01:15:18,100 because they take arguing personally

1584 01:15:15,600 --> 01:15:20,110 right and that is no case and so what

1585 01:15:18,100 --> 01:15:23,350 you get is party lines and dogma and all

1586 01:15:20,110 --> 01:15:24,610 that the paraphernalia of the past what

1587 01:15:23,350 --> 01:15:28,660 you need to do is to have a way of

1588 01:15:24,610 --> 01:15:30,130 separating out personalities from the

1589 01:15:28,660 --> 01:15:32,020 fact that there are very difficult

1590 01:15:30,130 --> 01:15:34,720 issues that need to be feared long and

1591 01:15:32,020 --> 01:15:36,790 hard and they have to be taken down to

1592 01:15:34,720 --> 01:15:38,890 the essence or else you're just going to

1593 01:15:36,790 --> 01:15:41,500 get another wave another five year plan

1594 01:15:38,890 --> 01:15:43,630 like the Russians used to do yielding

1595 01:15:41,500 --> 01:15:45,850 nothing because they refuse to look at

1596 01:15:43,630 --> 01:15:48,640 the basis of Marxism and ask whether

1597 01:15:45,850 --> 01:15:49,930 there was anything there or not right so

1598 01:15:48,640 --> 01:15:52,630 I think the thing is is to try and

1599 01:15:49,930 --> 01:15:54,850 convert from a dogmatic hierarchical

1600 01:15:52,630 --> 01:15:56,940 system because if you think about

1601 01:15:54,850 --> 01:16:00,610 American businesses are distressingly

1602 01:15:56,940 --> 01:16:02,050 undemocratic fact I think of them as

1603 01:16:00,610 --> 01:16:07,600 being like hunting and gathering

1604 01:16:02,050 --> 01:16:09,130 societies as compared to agriculture my

1605 01:16:07,600 --> 01:16:11,100 American businesses try to put their

1606 01:16:09,130 --> 01:16:15,489 competitors out of business

1607 01:16:11,100 --> 01:16:17,170 whereas farmers never do why because a

1608 01:16:15,489 --> 01:16:19,780 farmer needs all the other farmers to

1609 01:16:17,170 --> 01:16:22,060 come help him build his barn so farmers

1610 01:16:19,780 --> 01:16:24,370 do limited competition on Saturdays they

1611 01:16:22,060 --> 01:16:25,510 go out and help each other on Tuesdays

1612 01:16:24,370 --> 01:16:27,940 and they spend the rest of the time

1613 01:16:25,510 --> 01:16:29,560 trying to get their farm going a lot so

1614 01:16:27,940 --> 01:16:31,150 a lot of agricultural metaphors have

1615 01:16:29,560 --> 01:16:33,610 never come into business in any strong

1616 01:16:31,150 --> 01:16:35,200 way one of the ones I used at lunch is

1617 01:16:33,610 --> 01:16:37,120 an agriculture you need to let your

1618 01:16:35,200 --> 01:16:39,130 fields even in the Bible it says let

1619 01:16:37,120 --> 01:16:42,580 your fields lie fallow one year and

1620 01:16:39,130 --> 01:16:45,280 seven that means you're giving up 14

1621 01:16:42,580 --> 01:16:47,920 percent of your return in order to be

1622 01:16:45,280 --> 01:16:50,890 there 20 years from now right that's a

1623 01:16:47,920 --> 01:16:53,500 research budget 14 percent that's what

1624 01:16:50,890 --> 01:16:54,910 it means American businesses can't

1625 01:16:53,500 --> 01:16:57,460 understand they're always top soil

1626 01:16:54,910 --> 01:16:59,440 stripping and what do you get when you

1627 01:16:57,460 --> 01:17:01,770 topsoil strip you get a Dust Bowl and

1628 01:16:59,440 --> 01:17:04,480 that is what we have got

1629 01:17:01,770 --> 01:17:06,880 so the only way these changes can happen

1630 01:17:04,480 --> 01:17:11,110 is if the reward system has to be

1631 01:17:06,880 --> 01:17:14,410 changed by the top-most management to

1632 01:17:11,110 --> 01:17:18,180 investing some part in the future in a

1633 01:17:14,410 --> 01:17:21,719 serious way not in a token nice way and

1634 01:17:18,180 --> 01:17:25,680 to I believe that people will not change

1635 01:17:21,719 --> 01:17:29,199 unless there is some reward for failure

1636 01:17:25,680 --> 01:17:32,920 tell you a funny story I was I gave a

1637 01:17:29,199 --> 01:17:35,590 talk at the Stanford 25th anniversary of

1638 01:17:32,920 --> 01:17:38,980 computer science and there 75 Silicon

1639 01:17:35,590 --> 01:17:43,120 Valley companies in the room and I was

1640 01:17:38,980 --> 01:17:44,350 talking about told the story at Xerox

1641 01:17:43,120 --> 01:17:46,510 PARC when I when I first did the

1642 01:17:44,350 --> 01:17:49,260 overlapping window interface I use a

1643 01:17:46,510 --> 01:17:52,690 demo up to various Xerox executives and

1644 01:17:49,260 --> 01:17:54,219 one guy I went shoe and showed how the

1645 01:17:52,690 --> 01:17:57,340 windows came up and this is so much

1646 01:17:54,219 --> 01:18:00,219 easier and expands the effective area of

1647 01:17:57,340 --> 01:18:01,960 the display and this and that blah blah

1648 01:18:00,219 --> 01:18:03,760 blah and at the end as I said what's

1649 01:18:01,960 --> 01:18:06,760 really great about this stuff is it only

1650 01:18:03,760 --> 01:18:09,760 has a 20% chance of success we're taking

1651 01:18:06,760 --> 01:18:11,110 risk just like you asked us to he looked

1652 01:18:09,760 --> 01:18:13,920 at me and he said boy that's great but

1653 01:18:11,110 --> 01:18:13,920 just make sure it works

1654 01:18:14,169 --> 01:18:19,719 right the American businessman is idea

1655 01:18:16,869 --> 01:18:23,229 of risk being that 20 percent 100

1656 01:18:19,719 --> 01:18:26,139 percent of the time but it isn't it's

1657 01:18:23,229 --> 01:18:29,769 like baseball Ty Cobb's lifetime batting

1658 01:18:26,139 --> 01:18:33,130 average was 367 two out of three times

1659 01:18:29,769 --> 01:18:34,840 he made out right they have to invest

1660 01:18:33,130 --> 01:18:36,639 when you're doing things that involve

1661 01:18:34,840 --> 01:18:38,169 some risk it's not possible to hit a

1662 01:18:36,639 --> 01:18:40,869 baseball perfectly every time it's a

1663 01:18:38,169 --> 01:18:42,999 very hard thing to do it's not possible

1664 01:18:40,869 --> 01:18:44,559 to be right every time but the thing is

1665 01:18:42,999 --> 01:18:45,909 you can assure yourself of being wrong

1666 01:18:44,559 --> 01:18:47,469 every time if you don't do the

1667 01:18:45,909 --> 01:18:52,559 investment because then you just wind up

1668 01:18:47,469 --> 01:18:52,559 with a dust ball another question yes

1669 01:18:54,659 --> 01:18:58,809 first of all I was really delighted to

1670 01:18:56,979 --> 01:19:02,860 hear you talk about Doug Engelbart oh

1671 01:18:58,809 --> 01:19:04,659 yeah me too trite but I'm a fan one of

1672 01:19:02,860 --> 01:19:06,849 the things that he's recently been

1673 01:19:04,659 --> 01:19:09,429 working on is what he calls

1674 01:19:06,849 --> 01:19:12,399 bootstrapping corporations into the 21st

1675 01:19:09,429 --> 01:19:15,729 century yeah and you touched on this you

1676 01:19:12,399 --> 01:19:17,709 talked about how businesses can improve

1677 01:19:15,729 --> 01:19:20,169 themselves and one of the things he was

1678 01:19:17,709 --> 01:19:22,090 trying to get across without a key to

1679 01:19:20,169 --> 01:19:24,280 the long-term vitality of an

1680 01:19:22,090 --> 01:19:27,909 organization is to get better and better

1681 01:19:24,280 --> 01:19:30,300 at improving itself and I was curious

1682 01:19:27,909 --> 01:19:33,840 what you thought about his concept of

1683 01:19:30,300 --> 01:19:37,090 for example most Fargo being a bank

1684 01:19:33,840 --> 01:19:38,949 naturally keeps things very private from

1685 01:19:37,090 --> 01:19:43,149 Bank of America and other competitors

1686 01:19:38,949 --> 01:19:45,189 one of the engl Barts positions is that

1687 01:19:43,149 --> 01:19:47,469 we should actually be collaborating with

1688 01:19:45,189 --> 01:19:49,659 one another yeah to improve the process

1689 01:19:47,469 --> 01:19:50,829 for everyone so I'd like to hear your

1690 01:19:49,659 --> 01:19:54,719 thoughts on them yeah well the trick

1691 01:19:50,829 --> 01:19:54,719 there of course our antitrust laws

1692 01:19:56,130 --> 01:20:04,170 so we have a harder time doing caresses

1693 01:19:58,740 --> 01:20:06,360 than the Japanese do but basically I

1694 01:20:04,170 --> 01:20:09,360 mean here is a really you can throw

1695 01:20:06,360 --> 01:20:10,980 tomatoes if you want but I mean the the

1696 01:20:09,360 --> 01:20:13,850 crudest statement I can think of is that

1697 01:20:10,980 --> 01:20:17,790 in science you want to help your buddy

1698 01:20:13,850 --> 01:20:20,510 your competitor because there was a way

1699 01:20:17,790 --> 01:20:24,120 of doing it and getting credit for it

1700 01:20:20,510 --> 01:20:26,700 namely they they get really shat on if

1701 01:20:24,120 --> 01:20:29,640 they don't put your name as a source of

1702 01:20:26,700 --> 01:20:32,400 this part of the idea so in science you

1703 01:20:29,640 --> 01:20:34,440 tell everybody everything and there's a

1704 01:20:32,400 --> 01:20:38,280 way of not losing in the reward system

1705 01:20:34,440 --> 01:20:41,460 and science has been one of the fastest

1706 01:20:38,280 --> 01:20:45,810 growing things in business the idea is

1707 01:20:41,460 --> 01:20:47,370 let's screw our buddies because

1708 01:20:45,810 --> 01:20:48,780 especially in the short term when we're

1709 01:20:47,370 --> 01:20:51,030 measuring in the short term we can

1710 01:20:48,780 --> 01:20:53,310 always see little ways of cheating in

1711 01:20:51,030 --> 01:20:56,940 order to make the short term better and

1712 01:20:53,310 --> 01:20:59,580 if there's no long term theory then I

1713 01:20:56,940 --> 01:21:01,290 think there's a there's a super problem

1714 01:20:59,580 --> 01:21:03,780 I mean the truth is the companies do

1715 01:21:01,290 --> 01:21:05,910 collaborate by for instance sending

1716 01:21:03,780 --> 01:21:08,300 people to standards committees of

1717 01:21:05,910 --> 01:21:11,970 various kinds there's a whole layer of

1718 01:21:08,300 --> 01:21:14,880 company Apple is involved in quite a

1719 01:21:11,970 --> 01:21:18,570 number of consortiums there are 50 and

1720 01:21:14,880 --> 01:21:21,180 60 companies big and they include people

1721 01:21:18,570 --> 01:21:22,590 that are competitors of each other but

1722 01:21:21,180 --> 01:21:24,840 for instance everybody knows that unless

1723 01:21:22,590 --> 01:21:27,360 we get network standards worked out in a

1724 01:21:24,840 --> 01:21:29,160 reasonable way and we have a theory of

1725 01:21:27,360 --> 01:21:30,360 object protocols that work out where

1726 01:21:29,160 --> 01:21:33,090 it's actually going to hold things up

1727 01:21:30,360 --> 01:21:34,710 for another decade and so there's this

1728 01:21:33,090 --> 01:21:37,860 whole thing about how can we get the

1729 01:21:34,710 --> 01:21:39,660 state-of-the-art stuff here and not just

1730 01:21:37,860 --> 01:21:42,990 try and beat everybody else to market

1731 01:21:39,660 --> 01:21:44,010 but have some ecological theory now

1732 01:21:42,990 --> 01:21:46,650 angle Bart

1733 01:21:44,010 --> 01:21:49,350 by the way invented the term

1734 01:21:46,650 --> 01:21:52,890 bootstrapping and invented it back in

1735 01:21:49,350 --> 01:21:55,500 the 60s and he was giving that talk back

1736 01:21:52,890 --> 01:21:57,180 when I first met him which is a 1966

1737 01:21:55,500 --> 01:21:59,580 so he's been constantly trying to do

1738 01:21:57,180 --> 01:22:00,900 this and he it's a similar talk affects

1739 01:21:59,580 --> 01:22:02,760 some of the parts of my talk I've

1740 01:22:00,900 --> 01:22:05,790 adapted from his great old talk that he

1741 01:22:02,760 --> 01:22:08,670 used to to give about these we improve

1742 01:22:05,790 --> 01:22:09,599 ourselves by improving our tools and the

1743 01:22:08,670 --> 01:22:11,940 tools

1744 01:22:09,599 --> 01:22:13,320 McLuhan like to say we shape the tools

1745 01:22:11,940 --> 01:22:15,780 and then the tools come around and

1746 01:22:13,320 --> 01:22:17,460 reshape us so you have to be very

1747 01:22:15,780 --> 01:22:20,000 careful about the tools that we make and

1748 01:22:17,460 --> 01:22:23,130 how they reshape us know that yes

1749 01:22:20,000 --> 01:22:24,929 Ian's standards and I was working in

1750 01:22:23,130 --> 01:22:26,639 marketplace that you have standards and

1751 01:22:24,929 --> 01:22:28,560 you also want empower the individual to

1752 01:22:26,639 --> 01:22:30,540 do their own thing how do you see that

1753 01:22:28,560 --> 01:22:32,699 balance being able to give a person

1754 01:22:30,540 --> 01:22:34,290 freedom but also want to have standards

1755 01:22:32,699 --> 01:22:35,820 so everybody can move quickly it sounds

1756 01:22:34,290 --> 01:22:38,550 like it's different directions but we

1757 01:22:35,820 --> 01:22:40,679 have to find out it's that's that's a

1758 01:22:38,550 --> 01:22:44,550 really good question and it goes back to

1759 01:22:40,679 --> 01:22:48,150 the Constitution idea I I was one of

1760 01:22:44,550 --> 01:22:51,599 about 20 people who worked on the

1761 01:22:48,150 --> 01:22:53,159 ARPANET 20 30 people who worked on the

1762 01:22:51,599 --> 01:22:56,610 ARPANET and it's the thing that became

1763 01:22:53,159 --> 01:22:58,460 the Internet and one of the things we

1764 01:22:56,610 --> 01:23:01,079 problems we had back then was the ARPA

1765 01:22:58,460 --> 01:23:02,960 projects had different computers he

1766 01:23:01,079 --> 01:23:07,110 networks basically and heterogeneous

1767 01:23:02,960 --> 01:23:09,150 computer that's just shafted that way

1768 01:23:07,110 --> 01:23:11,119 you're going to get different mixes and

1769 01:23:09,150 --> 01:23:13,800 so you have to sort of face up to it and

1770 01:23:11,119 --> 01:23:16,139 that was in 1968 it was just when I was

1771 01:23:13,800 --> 01:23:19,139 starting to design OOP systems and I

1772 01:23:16,139 --> 01:23:21,420 realized that objects by their very

1773 01:23:19,139 --> 01:23:23,099 nature of having a separate inside and

1774 01:23:21,420 --> 01:23:24,679 an outside we're perfect to go from

1775 01:23:23,099 --> 01:23:26,849 different machines a different machine

1776 01:23:24,679 --> 01:23:28,880 they could even carry different code

1777 01:23:26,849 --> 01:23:31,050 along with them and nobody was the wiser

1778 01:23:28,880 --> 01:23:32,670 they could carry an interpreter with

1779 01:23:31,050 --> 01:23:34,050 them like PostScript does in case there

1780 01:23:32,670 --> 01:23:36,599 isn't something that knows how to

1781 01:23:34,050 --> 01:23:40,290 compile them and so when you think about

1782 01:23:36,599 --> 01:23:41,969 it just the notion of an object or the

1783 01:23:40,290 --> 01:23:43,560 notion of a cell think of how many

1784 01:23:41,969 --> 01:23:46,349 different cell types we have they all

1785 01:23:43,560 --> 01:23:49,670 run from the same DNA right so the

1786 01:23:46,349 --> 01:23:53,429 compatibility is done by not allowing

1787 01:23:49,670 --> 01:23:56,820 gratuitous information outside of the

1788 01:23:53,429 --> 01:23:58,920 cell right so if you send objects around

1789 01:23:56,820 --> 01:24:01,380 so people can be infinitely they can do

1790 01:23:58,920 --> 01:24:03,230 anything they want put it inside of an

1791 01:24:01,380 --> 01:24:05,579 object and as long as the object can be

1792 01:24:03,230 --> 01:24:07,860 recognized by various protocols and

1793 01:24:05,579 --> 01:24:09,659 api's that object can run on a wide

1794 01:24:07,860 --> 01:24:12,599 variety of different machines and still

1795 01:24:09,659 --> 01:24:15,090 be completely idiosyncratic to what the

1796 01:24:12,599 --> 01:24:16,530 creative person wants to do so you can

1797 01:24:15,090 --> 01:24:18,780 think of that as you know it's a

1798 01:24:16,530 --> 01:24:20,280 biological most of the answers I have to

1799 01:24:18,780 --> 01:24:21,869 questions like that came out of I used

1800 01:24:20,280 --> 01:24:22,239 to be a molecular biologist a long time

1801 01:24:21,869 --> 01:24:24,250 ago

1802 01:24:22,239 --> 01:24:27,340 and thing you have to realize is a

1803 01:24:24,250 --> 01:24:30,640 biology is so much more complicated than

1804 01:24:27,340 --> 01:24:32,350 anything computer people do it's by you

1805 01:24:30,640 --> 01:24:35,350 know tens of orders of man for instance

1806 01:24:32,350 --> 01:24:37,480 a bacteriological cell which we have

1807 01:24:35,350 --> 01:24:39,250 lots in our but our body is about a

1808 01:24:37,480 --> 01:24:44,230 hundred gigabytes worth of information

1809 01:24:39,250 --> 01:24:47,170 processing machinery and the processing

1810 01:24:44,230 --> 01:24:49,660 pattern matches are done in in sub

1811 01:24:47,170 --> 01:24:51,760 microsecond speed all right so you

1812 01:24:49,660 --> 01:24:54,400 happen it's just so typical one of those

1813 01:24:51,760 --> 01:24:56,440 things is like fifty thousand four

1814 01:24:54,400 --> 01:25:00,010 megabyte despot desktop computers that's

1815 01:24:56,440 --> 01:25:03,190 one bacterium one bacterium is one five

1816 01:25:00,010 --> 01:25:07,500 hundredth the size of a typical cell in

1817 01:25:03,190 --> 01:25:11,560 our body right we have ten trillion

1818 01:25:07,500 --> 01:25:14,080 cells in our body now the thing you have

1819 01:25:11,560 --> 01:25:16,200 to realize is that what's happening in

1820 01:25:14,080 --> 01:25:19,270 our body is hundreds and hundreds of

1821 01:25:16,200 --> 01:25:21,810 thousands even millions of cells are

1822 01:25:19,270 --> 01:25:25,030 dying every day

1823 01:25:21,810 --> 01:25:26,739 do everybody know that the atoms in our

1824 01:25:25,030 --> 01:25:30,239 body don't last for more than seven

1825 01:25:26,739 --> 01:25:33,430 years even in our bones they're replaced

1826 01:25:30,239 --> 01:25:36,120 so we humans biological organisms are

1827 01:25:33,430 --> 01:25:38,410 patterns moving through time and space

1828 01:25:36,120 --> 01:25:42,430 material comes into us and it goes out

1829 01:25:38,410 --> 01:25:44,020 of us the pattern stays behind right so

1830 01:25:42,430 --> 01:25:46,780 there's a constant dynamic organization

1831 01:25:44,020 --> 01:25:48,430 now why are we still alive the answer is

1832 01:25:46,780 --> 01:25:52,300 that more things are going right with us

1833 01:25:48,430 --> 01:25:55,750 and are going wrong compare that to your

1834 01:25:52,300 --> 01:25:57,850 COBOL program where one line of code now

1835 01:25:55,750 --> 01:26:01,090 let's see it wasn't well as far go but

1836 01:25:57,850 --> 01:26:05,770 what Bank was at Chemical Bank one line

1837 01:26:01,090 --> 01:26:07,960 of C code right and all of a sudden

1838 01:26:05,770 --> 01:26:10,120 people were having every time they took

1839 01:26:07,960 --> 01:26:15,700 something out it was twice as much as

1840 01:26:10,120 --> 01:26:17,320 taken out how can you do that come on we

1841 01:26:15,700 --> 01:26:18,880 shouldn't you think of that kind of

1842 01:26:17,320 --> 01:26:20,670 stuff as I mean if you're gonna use

1843 01:26:18,880 --> 01:26:24,850 transaction systems can't you imagine

1844 01:26:20,670 --> 01:26:26,950 transactions at the code level like it's

1845 01:26:24,850 --> 01:26:28,750 like do you really want to program in a

1846 01:26:26,950 --> 01:26:31,350 procedural language when you should be

1847 01:26:28,750 --> 01:26:33,550 programming in terms of constraints

1848 01:26:31,350 --> 01:26:34,900 that's the way you do that when you do

1849 01:26:33,550 --> 01:26:36,290 that you wind up with something that's

1850 01:26:34,900 --> 01:26:39,080 like a biological

1851 01:26:36,290 --> 01:26:40,700 it's tolerant of error because the

1852 01:26:39,080 --> 01:26:43,430 constraints are gonna make the overall

1853 01:26:40,700 --> 01:26:45,710 system get to the goal anyway so it's

1854 01:26:43,430 --> 01:26:47,270 like all biological systems when they're

1855 01:26:45,710 --> 01:26:48,800 following a light they don't get perfect

1856 01:26:47,270 --> 01:26:50,150 information back and they're not doing

1857 01:26:48,800 --> 01:26:51,740 things perfectly but the feedback

1858 01:26:50,150 --> 01:26:54,310 mechanism will get them to the goal

1859 01:26:51,740 --> 01:27:06,530 that's the way we should be programming

1860 01:26:54,310 --> 01:27:08,540 another question yes who makes it yeah

1861 01:27:06,530 --> 01:27:11,030 actually I always throw that in I

1862 01:27:08,540 --> 01:27:13,700 thought you know I've all my

1863 01:27:11,030 --> 01:27:16,220 professional career starting from 1968

1864 01:27:13,700 --> 01:27:19,370 I've worked with children the Mac was

1865 01:27:16,220 --> 01:27:21,140 designed for children not for adults in

1866 01:27:19,370 --> 01:27:25,250 fact some of the drawbacks in the user

1867 01:27:21,140 --> 01:27:26,450 interface are because of that fact we

1868 01:27:25,250 --> 01:27:28,880 did that interface so we could teach

1869 01:27:26,450 --> 01:27:33,620 children some very complicated things

1870 01:27:28,880 --> 01:27:37,370 and the to me the because of the way our

1871 01:27:33,620 --> 01:27:39,470 minds work because as humans we're

1872 01:27:37,370 --> 01:27:44,030 inescapably drawn and thank goodness in

1873 01:27:39,470 --> 01:27:46,900 a way to learn our culture think of the

1874 01:27:44,030 --> 01:27:49,030 an arc think if we weren't social

1875 01:27:46,900 --> 01:27:52,700 they'll be frightening

1876 01:27:49,030 --> 01:27:56,920 so we're drawn to learn a big set of

1877 01:27:52,700 --> 01:27:59,360 beliefs and if we want to change those

1878 01:27:56,920 --> 01:28:02,540 beliefs it's much easier to change them

1879 01:27:59,360 --> 01:28:04,130 in children than in adults and so I you

1880 01:28:02,540 --> 01:28:05,870 know I'm sort of the opposite the Roman

1881 01:28:04,130 --> 01:28:09,050 Catholic Church and you know I want to

1882 01:28:05,870 --> 01:28:10,760 save the children first and they are the

1883 01:28:09,050 --> 01:28:12,800 ones that I can't find any way of

1884 01:28:10,760 --> 01:28:14,210 blaming them when something is going

1885 01:28:12,800 --> 01:28:16,610 wrong with them whereas adults I can

1886 01:28:14,210 --> 01:28:18,980 find infinite lists of things to blame

1887 01:28:16,610 --> 01:28:22,430 adults for they should know better etc

1888 01:28:18,980 --> 01:28:23,780 etc but for children good grief so the

1889 01:28:22,430 --> 01:28:26,020 answer is you just keep on throwing this

1890 01:28:23,780 --> 01:28:28,700 stuff I think the Chinese water torture

1891 01:28:26,020 --> 01:28:30,680 treatment is you just kept people to

1892 01:28:28,700 --> 01:28:32,390 keep on trying to notice the things are

1893 01:28:30,680 --> 01:28:35,210 infinitely more complex than television

1894 01:28:32,390 --> 01:28:36,860 can ever portray and once people start

1895 01:28:35,210 --> 01:28:39,290 thinking in terms other than in

1896 01:28:36,860 --> 01:28:40,700 television where you're dealing with

1897 01:28:39,290 --> 01:28:43,610 individuals and start thinking in these

1898 01:28:40,700 --> 01:28:45,580 larger abstract terms that's that's when

1899 01:28:43,610 --> 01:28:48,800 things start happening

1900 01:28:45,580 --> 01:28:49,790 anybody can save one child the most

1901 01:28:48,800 --> 01:28:51,470 important thing is

1902 01:28:49,790 --> 01:28:53,090 to realize that if you save one child

1903 01:28:51,470 --> 01:28:58,660 and somebody else say is another child

1904 01:28:53,090 --> 01:28:58,660 and all the children will be saved yes

1905 01:28:58,960 --> 01:29:03,530 time to quit I would love to stop on

1906 01:29:01,370 --> 01:29:04,850 that note okay matter of fact thank you

1907 01:29:03,530 --> 01:29:15,789 very much

1908 01:29:04,850 --> 01:29:15,789 [Applause]

Retrieved from "https://tinlizzie.org/IA/IA/index.php?title=Delivering_the_Future_(1994)&oldid=760"