Difference between revisions of "Delivering the Future (1994)"

Latest revision as of 22:13, 5 December 2017

[Applause]

well thank you for inviting me here I like the title of this session I think

in the first year I was at Xerox PARC I

had an argument with some of the Xerox executives who are worrying about what

might happen and they wanted to defend themselves against the future it was so

wimpy I finally got angry at them and I

said look the best way to predict the future is to invent it don't worry about

what all those other people are going to do this is the century in which if you

have a vision and you don't violate too many of Newton's laws you can actually

build the thing that you have in mind now delivering the future is a more

subtle metaphor so it implies there's something to deliver like a baby and the

reason I like it is that there's all this exciting stuff that has to happen a

little earlier in the process in order to have a baby to deliver we scientists

call that research so I'm going to talk

to you a little bit about how the future

gets invented I think some of the some

of the stories and ideas I think may may help you now I'm not a professional

speaker I'm still a scientist as my

introducer said my title is a fellow we

decided at Apple that the mass noun for know there's a pride of lions we decided

that the mass now and for fellows should be jolly

so we have a jolly of fellows at at Apple we have three of them now twenty

years ago at Xerox PARC we invented six

things and I would not be here talking

to you if Xerox had accepted any one of

these it was in fact what happened after

we invented these six things that I got

interested in talking to people outside

of the computer field the six things were the first thing like a workstation

or a modern PC really the first thing like a Macintosh originally started

working in 1973 the first overlapping window user interface first modern OOP

system first laser printer and the

ethernet and then the the sixth thing I didn't have a really good picture

because I just show another Alto there which was what we call client-server

computing now in today's terms it's actually pierre-pierre computing because

clients see terms get corrupted I made

up the terms personal computer and I made up the term object-oriented and

both of those have gotten corrupted into an almost meaningless terms

client-server has gotten corrupted it's the new way of saying terminal mainframe

I can assure you that was not what we had in mind any more than we thought

that C++ would be called an object-oriented language or that the IBM

PC would be called a personal computer I was more meanings originally or that

windows 3.0 would be called a user interface as far as that goes but that's

the way it goes now what happened is

that around 1975 76 we had about 700 of

these machines both at Palo Alto and in

Rochester and we had I guess eight or

nine Ethernet linked together and then linked by long lines from Rochester to

Palo Alto and you could actually sit down and do something in Rochester that

is very hard to do today you could go to Rochester and sit down at an alto and

work as though that was your alto so

this was a what you what today is called a natural network virtual address space

the computations actually were able to float around the network they were not

bound to specific machines and what

happened was in August 1976 Xerox turned

down all of this technology even though there were hundreds of machines working

software the first desktop publishing system Microsoft Word which was

originally called Bravo was done at Parc it was the word processing system that

we used all of this stuff they turned it down of course that was a great shock

but what did we know we kept on plugging

away at at what we're doing in 1978 I met several of the executives who had

made that decision and was really surprised to discover that they were actually somewhat intelligent even even

for Xerox executives and then that was

when I started worrying because you see when they turned it down we just thought well they're stupid they're dumb what do

they know you know this is hopeless but when I

found out they were intelligent and they still turned it down I realized that something much more serious was going on

and one way of saying it as they were still doing Ptolemaic astronomy in

Connecticut and we had started doing Copernican astronomy out in California

when you get one of those where you get a complete miss between two ways of

looking at the world you have something really serious because there aren't even grounds for conversation and what's

worse the same words get used over again but in different ways in astronomy the

word orbit comes from one of the initial beliefs by the Greeks that the planets

are on transparent spheres you ever wonder why a planar orbit was called orb

in orbit because they thought they were on glass spheres then it got taken over

to mean planar orbits got reused by

Copernicus to me and a heliocentric system got really used by Newton and

Kepler and got reused by Einstein same word we use today the way people have

trouble with science science unfortunately decided to reuse the word

theory and people when they hear about

the theory of relativity they say oh that's just a theory or the theory of

evolution that's just a theory theory and science means something completely

different we separate out the two words

theory and conjecture it's a theory and science is something that has been set

up in such a way and beaten on for years so it is a ball stirred set of arguments

why don't we call it the truth the reason is is that science doesn't

believe that you can find truth it's a

cliche and a myth does science believes

that what you can find are better and better mappings of the world so that's

what I'm going to talk to you today about are because the way you get into

the future is by realizing that the way we look at the world in any given time

is always through our own mappings and we can come up with different mappings

and when we come up with different mappings we can look at the world in a different way now

the big problem with predicting the future is in large part because of the

funny ways that human like to think so here are three ways of getting from A to

B the first one is random walk you start off from place a there on the left and

at every corner you take a random turning and eventually you can prove

that you will get to B I always think of that as a perfect example of hire

management's main way of doing things

now lower in the organization you have a

more rational way of looking at it which is reduce the differences this is what

they teach in business school and in most elementary and high schools and

colleges is problem-solving problem-solving the way you solve a

problem here is that at each step of the way you see if you can get closer to the

gold state and then when you have reduced that difference to zero you've

achieved the goal now it turns out that both of these ways of doing things are

completely have been obsolete for many many years the way really good things

are done is at the bottom there and what

you do is instead of going from A to B randomly or by reducing differences what

you do is you go away from B for a while and find us find a superhighway because

you can go away from B for a while and you find a superhighway you can get very

very close to B be very very rapidly then get off find B now this is very

hard for people to do companies have the hardest time going away from their short

term goals in order to build structures

that will allow them to deal with many

many goals in the future rather than just the ones that they're working with now you could think of this third way of

looking at things as a architecture if you want you could think of it as a

paradigm that's going away from the goal

sometimes called research it's the kind of investment that you

make in order to find large-scale architectures that are going to help you

so if we want to predict the future we have to find some way that is not

extrapolate 'iv something that doesn't

rely on the future being a lot like the present where else we're just going to come up with improved versions of the

present so here is a dream called MMX is

done by Vannevar Bush who is president roosevelt's science advisor who wrote an

article in 1945 and in that article he said not too long from now everybody

will be able to have in their house a device the size of a desk in that desk

stored optically will be the contents of

about a small town library about five to

ten thousand volumes worth of materials and we'll be able to search that we'll

be able to look on look at this material

on various screens and we'll have pointing devices that we can put new

information in and keyboards and etc etc so this is Memex written in 1945 by a

pretty good scientist I had some good reasons to believe that this could

happen because he was aware of things that were going on at the time including

the development of computers and of various kinds of dry photography

microfilm microfiche and so forth we're all being developed then the critical

thing about this for the story today is that a number of the people who invented

the technologies that you're using today saw this Engelbart who was a towering

figure we'll meet him in a minute saw this in 1945 he was in the Navy and

he read it read this version in Life magazine had pictures on it I saw it

when I was 14 years old as a result of reading a science fiction book in 1954

so and other people saw it and when it

came time to actually do it there was already an image of what it would be

really nice to have it didn't look at all like ENIAC a huge

mainframe computer for solving ballistic problems it didn't look like a univac it

didn't look like a any kind of mainframe

computer in IBM 650 this looked like something that a person could use and

actually this became the rallying cry starting around 1960 ok so there are

several different ways of thinking about computing back then one was that the

mainframe was gone of a universal factory that was IBM's way of thinking

about it Engelbert thought of computing

as a kind of a vehicle now Engle Bart

was the guy who invented the mouse and that looks like a fairly modern picture

because let me ask the crowd here how many people have in their office right now a two-page display right not one of

these little guys but one of these guys you can put two two full pages of display okay couple people so there's

one right there that was the first one anybody ever used that picture was taken

in 1966 okay so in 1966 Engelbart had

thought through that computers were not about processing numbers they were

actually there to relate information now he was one of the people who invented

one of the first word processors but he didn't think computers were for word

processing he didn't think they were for outlying processing he thought that they were for

relating information and he realized something very very profound about

computing that is an ordinary physical

space that we live in if we have point a here and we have a point B down here it

isn't the same place

what's been generated in between them is that horrible thing called distance an

angle Bart realized something very interesting about distance and that is

if here's that this is a two dimensional space we have a two dimensional distance

but what's incredible about distance is if you give me one more dimension I can

get rid of the distance right just one

more dimension than the dimension of my information and I can get all of the intervention interesting information in

the same place in hyperspace and I can

do it for any number of them

that's what Engelbart did so he was the guy who invented what we now call

hypertext or hyper media he realized that what people really want is not an

imitation of paper they want something better they don't want to automate old

things what they need is to take all the interesting information about a wide

number of things and exits so that all of those things are in the same place

and Ivan Sutherland around the same time

did something wonderful he was the guy who invented computer graphics it was

invented around 1962 and again he just didn't do it to imitate paper to imitate

drafting he looked at and said what else can it do this is what we should always

ask most important question what else can it do and what it could do is it

could simulate things so on this thing this picture taken in 1962 Sutherland is

sitting in front of a bridge that he's drawn and sketchpad and that bridge is

dynamically sustaining a weight and showing him what the stresses and

strains on the bridge are so here are three completely different metaphors for

computing I think you'll agree that the

dominant metaphor today is still the Universal Factory

American business by and large uses

computers to automate accounting I'm sure that Wells Fargo does really do

they think of it as a vehicle for traversing hyperspace where all of the

stuff of interest to you should be available dynamically and rarely do they think of

it as a simulator for being able to deal with very complex problems and try and

understand what happens next now individuals do about 70% of the use

of spreadsheets on personal computers our what-ifs but IT organizations almost

never do IT organizations run post-mortems on already in bomb de right

by the time they get around to writing an application which is usually 18

months after it was requested the information is not of interest anymore

so the metaphor that we pick for

thinking about what computing is is very very critical now I started thinking

about I started in 1961 and I started thinking about this stuff and it I was

very intrigued with angle Bart's stuff and in 1967 I built this machine in the

center the top Center there it was called the Flex machine so it looks like

a personal computer of today it was a personal computer was a desktop computer

for very special deaths namely those made out of steel so weighed about 400

pounds and had a had a fan that was likened to

a 747 taking off C in those days the

integrated circuit packages integrated circuits were very very small they only

had about 16 or 32 gates on them and so this machine which was quite weak by

today's standards had more than 700 of those little black boxes in it and so it

generated a lot of heat and then I

happened to see some of seymour papert's early work with logo and it got me

thinking all of a sudden that computers were not Veals

computers were like media they were like media and I suddenly remembered

something quite striking I don't know

how many people here have ever been in a medieval library there's one still set

up in Florence and what they look like is there a room about four times this

size there are no shelves why because

most libraries had less than a hundred books one of the largest libraries in

Europe the Vatican Library in the year

1400 only had 392 books each Brook took

about 10 to 15 years to copy by a group of group of monks so when he went into a

medieval library what you saw were tables reading areas each book was

chained to the table table after table

after table about a hundred of them and so they it flashed into my mind that

looks just like a time-sharing bullpen right time sharing terminals using

something so expensive only an institution could own it

individuals accept that unless they were kings couldn't own this stuff and then I

flashed to Gutenberg's Bible which was

printed but it was printed in imitation of this stuff and I suddenly looked at

the Flex machine and said you know that thing looks just like a time-sharing terminal is this am I just imitating the

past what is this thing by the way Guttenberg

buy it the first Gutenberg Bibles were incredibly cheap costs only two years of

a clerks wages to buy one it was about

sixty thousand dollars today and if you think of that if you think of that as

about what a workstation costs expensive

workstation costs compared to the millions of dollars from one of these things it is rather cheap but what

flashes of my mind then was the turning

point in the development of the book which was this third stage and that was

done by a guy by the name of Aldous not Elvis PageMaker that could have been his

name because he was a printer in Venice that's where the company got their name

Aldus Manutius around 1495 decided books

should not be like this so the Gutenberg galaxy I mean the

Gutenberg Bible and manuscripts but he

decided that book should be the size they are today you've ever wondered why

books are the size they are today it could be any size it could be really

small it could be big this size I'll

tell you why because that is the size that saddlebags were in Venice Aldous

went out and measured saddlebags and took the average saddlebag size and

decided to print a library or she called the portable library in 1495 so that

people could take them with now this is a profound idea because Elvis was the

first person who really realized that books were now something that could be

lost it was not a crime against humanity

to lose a book because he could go buy another one okay so that happened around

1495 and suddenly I suddenly realized that a computer should look like this

should be something the size of a book should be something that you always have

with you and I made that cardboard model

in 1968 that's what a computer should

look like now just to give you an idea to try and understand why the the

situation we're in today here is a completely transitional one this is a

much Stabler form than this one you have

to realize that remember printing was invented around 1450 to 1450 for Aldous

was 1495 wasn't until 1516 more than 60

years after the printing press was invented that anybody thought to put page numbers on a book think about that

how could they have meant notice Elvises Brooke here has no page numbers how

could they possibly not have done the reason was is that when you only have 392 books in the world's largest library

and it if you're really rich and you may have at home five or ten books why have

page numbers you know where everything is books are a celebration of what you already know so when we think about

computers today one of the things we have to really understand is that we are

in a transitional phase and that the use of computers by humans is going to be

completely different than it is today just as the use today is completely

different from what it was 20 years ago that's the importance of making sharp

boundaries between these different ways of thinking about things now this all

would have been fantasy and science fiction except for people like Gordon

Moore Gordon Moore was a physicist in 1965 he published the white part of this

diagram which said you know from 1959

whoops sorry from 1959 up to about 1965 things have

been improving at about the rate of factor of two every year in integrated

circuits he said I wonder if that can continue so he started looking at the

physics of integrated circuits that gave him this line

a few years later he said this line is too ambitious I'll predict that it will

grow by a factor of two every two years which gave him this line and just for

your enjoyment here the purple line is

what actually happened right so it's grown slightly better it's grown about a

factor of two every eighteen months since 1965 and Gordon Moore's prediction

was a 30-year prediction now in order to

make this prediction he had to back away he had to do remember my diagram he had

to go away from B because the silicon

that people were using was not a predictable silicon it was not easy to

make predictions about it so he picked a simpler way of doing things which is thought to be too slow and made his

predictions based on that that slow silicon happens to be a silicon we used

today MOS silicon this single chart if

well understood explains why IBM and Dec are in such trouble today explains why

we have millions and millions of personal computers today it explains why

people were not able to predict the future in a reasonable way because this

is an exponential curve this is talking about a factor of 10 million change in

20 years so almost everything that we're

doing today is based on this now the

thing is you have to realize about the human nervous system is that factors of

10 and factors of a hundred change our qualitative to us they may look on paper

quantitative but a factor of 10 change in speed is qualitative to us what

happened to IBM because they were aware of this is they couldn't believe that

this meant anything other than they would be able to make cheaper mainframes

and make more profit on them they could not imagine the actual implications of

being able to put an entire computer on a chip and that there would have to be

millions of them so they lost they missed so these three

ways of looking at things I gave names to I called the mainframe

thing institutional computing I called the desktop machine personal computing

and I called this handheld Aldus type computer an intimate computer and in the

late 60s I sat down and tried to write down some of the conclusions that a

person would reach for in each of these belief structures now another word

that's been devalued almost beyond repair is paradigm right paradigm is a

belief structure so you could just as easily say this is the institutional

paradigm the personal computing paradigm or the intimate paradigm doesn't matter

scientists like paradigms because it is

so hard to think about things that aren't already around so we play all

kinds of tricks and mind games and one of the ones that we do is to drive artificial boundaries between things to

see if we can find differentiation so this is one of those things saying these

are three different ways of thinking about the world and what are the implications whoops sorry about that

the

now what types one of the ways of thinking about it is what types of data

do you use institutional uses letters and numbers I discovered just a few

years ago that my Dennis still had those green and white print out sheets needless to say I changed Dennis so I

was wondering what other old technology he might be using there's law by the way

does anybody know who toward more is here who is Gordon Moore who did Moore's

law yeah so Moore got a lot of criticism for

that curve and so he decided to do this

thing well the best way to predict the future is to invent it so he said let's found a company to work on MOS silicon

happened to be Intel he's one of the richest guys in California right now

he's worth more than a billion dollars from that because of course see when the

astronauts got out in space and they look back at the earth you know what they saw they saw something that looked

just like a globe that had been done in the 19th century that's what science is

all about no surprises you get out there and if

you've done your work properly you should see what you expect to see so

Gordon Moore was right and he was able to get profit from it and if you think

about the implications of Moore's law you're going to start using bitmap

screens it's one of the first things we invented at Xerox PARC

because now we could have bits bits weren't just for computation anymore and

then later on all other media was going to have to come along and one of the

implications of this is that when you get into this third stage you're not

going to print printing will go away now people have been saying that for years

and we have more paper than yes yes I know but think of it this way when your

information is related in such a way that all important things are together

you're not going to print it out how

many people here do forecasting by spreadsheets

okay who does anybody print out the spreadsheet template no you know why

because what ones you're going to print out you're going to print out a hundred of them every one of those things you've

done you change a number and the whole spreadsheet changes so the multi is to

think about in multimedia are not combining voice and images the multi is

to think about our multi-dimensional and multi process so as we go more and more

towards multiply multi dimensional representations and simulations printing

will kill both of those things and what

we have now is synthetic paper that comes along just in the nick of time to

save us we can now have all of our dynamic information structures with us

at all times so printing is finally going to go away by my friend Nicolas

Monte thought of it this way thought of the worlds of publishing entertainment

and computing imploding on each other because now every single one of them

could have everything that they do represent it digitally when you have everything represented in

the same form you basically have the same business they use the same

transmission everybody who has access to the Internet is a publisher you can

publish just as well as mcgraw-hill can in fact your if you have access to the

Internet you are actually a miniature FCC I don't know whether you know it but

people send television programs back and forth on the on the internet and radio

there's a constant internet radio between scientists and stuff and there

are no channels were requested from the FCC because the internet does not care

it's just sending bits back and forth and the bits can be anything so this is

one again that the publishers in the entertainment industry only discovered a

couple of years ago and yet it's been true once more

Wrote is liya this is why this stuff is scary to people because it seems like

all this stuff is suddenly happening the reason it's suddenly happening is

people will not believe a disaster until it's actually in front of their eyes

the whole reason we have eyes is so we

don't have to jump off the cliff to see if it's dangerous right

we have long distance sensors and we need the equivalent of long distance

sensors when we're dealing with the future user interface probably the

biggest change when you're over here you

have a few thousand users perhaps using an airlines reservation system or a

banking system you can train a few thousand people there's a factor of a

thousand between these two panels so millions can't train millions of people

over here there's another factor of a thousand because this intimate computer

is a lot like a phone in fact it will have a phone in it so these are billions

of people millions of people it put an enormous pressure on trying to

understand what it would be like to

actually get computers to do things and we realized that the big transition

would have to go from being a command environment like a control panel of a

nuclear reactor that's sort of what a 3270 terminal is like to a learning

environment that's what forced us to invent what is now called the the

Macintosh style interface now what happens in the future here is something

even more cataclysmic because this third panel is energized by pervasive

networking think of the driving forces driving force for mainframe computers

was actually business IBM didn't want to build them they wanted to stay in the

punch card business was it was American

business that forced IBM to become a big company driving force for the second

frame was integrated circuits as we've been talking about in the driving force

for this third frame is pervasive networking which is happening to us now this transition is

going to be complete pretty much by the year 2000 billions of people are going

to have to be there and so one way of thinking about this is here you have to

train the user in this one the user

interface teaches the user that's its main job and in this one the user

interface learns from the user in other words it actively is trying to

understand the user and what it's what it's trying to do so one way of thinking

about this is the two ways that we've had of amplifying our reach have been

tools Macintosh style interface is a

tool based interface it's designed to work with hand and eye and the other way

we're used to amplifying our reach is through agents agents are creatures that

can take on our goal structure and carry out goals in our behalf and what's even

stronger about agencies they can transmit your goals to other agents

imagine how powerful that is some person has a few ideas in the middle-east 2000

years ago gets 12 agents to be interested in it and half the half the

earth is now interested in those same

ideas that's the power of agents over

tools so one of the big transitions that's going to happen in the next five

years will be the transition from tool based interfaces which we've just

transitioned into to this softer more

dynamic way of doing things that that networks are going to force us into

integration of information it's usually done painfully with files using

relational databases it's it's incredible to me that after more than 20

years almost 25 years now the less than

half of the databases in America's fortune 500 companies are relational

I'm sure everybody is aware of that it's

unbelievable most of them are still flat files and cut and paste in the Macintosh

and then to active components and if we have time we can talk a little bit more

about that as you go to more and more complex systems the parts of things have

to take more and more of the initiative for the linking what kind of software

airline reservation system in institutional generic tool like a

spreadsheet or a word processor or desktop publishing system because you

have millions of people buying them the users have to complete the application in order to use it and in the future

most of the applications in business

will be done by the end users now it happens that today in the fortune 500

companies more than half of the applications that are used in Fortune

500 companies today are done by the end users not by the IT organization

spreadsheets are the big culprit IT

organizations hate them because they are and personal computers because they have

to give up control but in fact there is a way of leveraging the productivity of

users and we'll talk about that a little bit later each of these 3 belief systems

has a different way of wanting to be programmed data structures and

procedures are an extremely weak way of

doing things this is COBOL and see one of the problems is if you send a data structure

a thousand miles between point a and point B you pretty much have to matter

transmit a programmer along with it in order for people to use it the reason is

is that the data structures themselves are dumb dead things that don't know how

they should be used so objects particularly at Xerox PARC were invented

so that when you transmit something from A to B you're also transmitting the

knowledge of how to have how to use it so the amount of code you have to write

at the other end is very minimal and networks are going to force a completely

different kind of jamming paradigm that we call agent oriented just to give you an idea of

this is about maybe 50 years old to go

back to Von Neumanns original design this is about 25 plus years old I did my

first language in 67 this one is more

than ten years old they've never heard of this stuff but in fact people have

been working away in research labs because looking ahead we could see that

pervasive network was coming and we realized that classical objects could

not be transmitted willy-nilly around the world and be able to be components

of things without a lot of work that calls for a new way of thinking about

programming and this agent oriented way is the way we think it will work

analogy to architectures the Greeks were really smart but they never invented the

arch so they were constrained to build

rather small but beautiful temples if

you want to build something bigger you have to have a different architectural principle the Gothic arch allowed

cathedrals to be built that were 10 times the size of the Greek temples

interestingly enough there's only slightly more material in Chartres

Cathedral than there was in the Parthenon all right because Gothic cathedrals are

mostly air and windows and then geodesic

domes using a completely different theory can you can make a geodesic dome

that will go over all of the Gothic cathedrals made on earth using a

different architecture the way we improve ourselves is by changing

architectures we have the same IQ we had ten thousand years ago imagine having an

IQ of 250 in the year 10,000 BC what

could you do not a lot all right Leonardo probably had an IQ of

250 he did a lot of drawings but he

could hardly build anything because he wasn't in a place where he could

leverage his IQ you leverage IQ with knowledge and architectures these are

the thing most important things the human race comes up with our different ways of thinking about things that allow

us to appear much smarter than we did years ago so here's a my favorite

metaphor for the future Nicholas Negroponte II said once we'll know it's

the future when my left cufflink communicates with my right cuff link via

satellite this sort of sums it all up

now let me ask you do you think Nicholas was being facetious no in fact by the

year 2000 you will be able to have a cuff link size thing that can go up to a

satellite and come down you ever called

at dinner if you have a cellular phone and your friend has one and you've

talked to each other across the dinner table with your cellular phones do you

have any idea of where the information is going in order to come back okay so

this is a way of thinking about I like

this one because it's so so you tray it's very Nicolas like it's so tray that

it gets people thinking about wow this is not the computing I thought we were

doing so particularly the future is easy

it hasn't changed in 20 years that's the number one thing you have to understand

it takes so long to get this stuff out of labs it takes even longer to convince

venture capitalists and other people to support it every technology that's going

to affect you in the next 10 years is already in somebody's lap so one of

things you have to ask yourself do you pay somebody even half time to go around

and visit the 40 or so labs in the world that count probably not so how do you

know you're gonna wait until Businessweek discovers it they don't understand half of these

technologies most scientists like myself spend part of our time just visiting

other people's research labs because we can't wait for journals to come out

journals are always two years behind and

so most of the stuff virtually everything that is going to affect you

already exists in some demonstratable form and you should know about it

because those are the actual tools that we are going to make it possible for you

to build the future that you want okay now here comes so that was the uplifting

part now the problem with this picture

is that every time a technological advance comes along almost everybody

tries to automate all of their old processes we've already talked about that

that is not the way to do it because often the technology is not even as good

as the old technology when it starts automating ever tried to read a couple

of paragraphs off of CRT I think CRTs

are good at automating what books do they're terrible so what you have to do

is ask Ivan Sutherlands question which is what else can it do you have to

understand how to leverage the new properties of this technology that will

lead to new processes in your business and unfortunately for everybody it's

also going to have to require some learning on your part this is the thing

that humans hate especially Americans schools teach us to treat classes as

vaccinations against dread diseases right remember saying thank God I'm done

with that class I never have to take it again this is like getting a smallpox

shot thank God I'm done with that vaccination now I'm safe I never have to

learn anything yet the problem is it doesn't work like that anymore in order to leverage the new we have to

learn what the new is in order to do that we have to understand how the mind works

my favorite saying in McLuhan's is I don't know who discovered water but it

wasn't a fish this is our number one problem what he meant is that we exist

in a goldfish bowl filled with water that we don't know exists and that water

is called our beliefs to us we are in reality those people

halfway across the world that think differently than we do have to be wrong and therefore we should kill them this

is the way human beings work because we're not conscious that we don't live

in reality we live in beliefs in fact we

can't ever get to reality can't ever get

to reality there is no reality that we can get to yeah beliefs and the beliefs

can be good or bad Maps so this this

image I think is perfect if you always think of yourself as being in a goldfish bowl you have to ask yourself what color

water am i swimming in right now so one

of the things that we do culturally is that we teach people are special

goldfish bowls so we have like a different goldfish bowl and people in

India do or people in Lebanon

okay now take a look at this face upside down face and see if you can see ting

interesting about it who's got what do you think the mouth is

what mouth is upside down see anything

else about the picture okay let's let's

pretend we're in a typical American school or let's say a Wells Fargo training center

okay the dominant belief in school is

that knowledge is a fluid and the way we

teach it is we transfer drop by drop

from the full student full teacher vessel to the empty student vessel okay

that fluid is in terms of a language like English so let me give you a

sentence about this picture what we've done here is we've taken a picture of a young girl extracted her mouth and her

eyes turn both of them upside down put

them back into the picture and then turned the entire picture upside down

okay so now you should be quite prepared

for what it looks like right side up

now I'm going to turn this back because I've discovered nobody will listen to me

when it's on the other way now you have

to realize I didn't give you any more information the second time right what I

described in that sentence was exactly what you saw and yet you had a reaction

on the second picture you didn't have one on the first who knows what that

means who's got a theory don't be shy

why is it worth it why is it worth a thousand words because but why yeah but

why why couldn't you why couldn't you picture what it was

going to look like from my words okay so

lots of different theory the real what

what is actually going on here and it's been confirmed in a particularly striking way as the last four or five

years is that when you're listening to English sentences a part of your brain

over here and a part of your brain over here is active okay and when you're

looking at pictures a part of your brain back here and a part of your brain down here particularly for faces is active so

you're thinking about words completely differently and with a different set of

mechanisms than you're thinking about pictures think about that this is why

McDonald's will never run a print ad saying if you eat a McDonald's hamburger you'll become a better-looking person

right because it's absurd in English but what do they do they run ads with

gorgeous people holding hamburgers and a

different part of your brain a part of your brain that remembers very well but

isn't so good at thinking makes the inference the advertisers want them what

you want you to McLuhan was once asked why don't you read psychology books and

he said well psychologists study white rats he says I look to see what advertisers are doing they're the ones

who are studying humans

this is why the Presidential Debates which were three hours long a hundred

years ago are now two minutes on each point on television right because there

is nothing to think about from what television shows you and none

of the politicians want you to think about any of the issues that's why they

come on television and you don't want to think about the issues which is why you watch them on television itself and I

there's an ni there's no one of us there

are actually lots of us in here thinking

different ways and most of the time we're not aware of it at all

so Brenner was American psychologist who studied this stuff he took a six year

old kid six year old kids when you pour from a squat glass into a tall thin one

we'll say there's more water in the tall thin glass because they're there in

what's called an iconic reasoning stage and this is pretty constant from kid to

kid around age five or six then Brenner

did something interesting he's got a kid who would say there's more water in the tall glass and he covered up the tall

glass with cardboard and asked the question again the kids say oh wait a

minute there can't be more water where were to go where would it come from and

Brenner took the cardboard away and the kid said no look there's more water and Brenda put the cardboard back and the

kid changed his mind again so if you have any six-year-olds you'd like to

torment

okay what was Brenner exploring who's got a theory yeah

visual versus language visual versus symbolic so he said you know there are

at least three ways we have of knowing about the world and probably a lot more

how many people here have ever remembered a route better when they were

driving the car versus when they were a passenger why huh yeah we have a

kinesthetic mentality this is the one if

you're a musician you know much a lot about this one this is the one that you have to get it this is the one that

learns how to ride the bike so we have

that's a completely separate one that's why you can't just watch somebody playing a sport and go out and do it

it's in a different part of the brain it's in a different set of symbols we

have a visual mentality one of its great

tricks is how many people here now admit it I'll admit it how many people click

through channels how many people here have ever clicked

into the middle of a movie they haven't seen for 20 years how long did it take

you to recognize that movie a couple of

seconds think about that now compared to

school twenty years ago you were with a

significant other most likely you did not have your mind on the movie

particularly didn't know you're going to be tested 20 years later the test was

random into the center of the thing and yet within about 50 frames your visual

mentality had retrieved that you'd seen it before and about half of the time in

tests that have been done people remember what's going to happen next think about this in the context of your

entire life and think of why there are icons on a user interface if you put

pictures of animals up on the wall you can find the elephant four times faster

than pic then words for the animals and here's a beautiful one if you put boxes

around the words you can find the word elephant twice as fast then if there

isn't a box there why

yeah but basically what happens is the Box icon eise's the word the words are

actually perceived in a different place in your brain then then images that

aren't words see why am I am I telling

you this stuff because the world is not as it seems right we go from day to day

from moment to moment thinking that what's out there is reality it isn't all

it is is interpretations by that three pounds of oatmeal we've got between our

ears and that three pounds of oatmeal

can be taught to perceive things any way the culture chooses let's look at

creativity for a second here we are plotting along in the pink context you

can think of this is a goldfish bowl we're in a goldfish bowl and when

somebody wants us to do something the best thing we can think of is extrapolation or if going from A to B

problem solving so it's very hard to be creative when you stay inside the

goldfish bowl moments of creativity happen when something happens oh yeah

here's a good example is if you take frogs and paralyze their food with a

little chloroform flies the frog will

not eat them the Frog cannot see flies

that aren't moving that's incredible but it will try and eat little oblong

shapes of cardboard that are moving this

cyan't we scientists love this one because we we think of the you know the ideas they're all around us if you think

of the Flies as I did we just can't see them they're just there all the time we

can't see my nervous system won't let us do it we're keep on snapping at pieces

of cardboard but then something great

happens something makes us look at the idea in a different way and bingo we

have an idea this is why I say terrific ideas usually hide behind good ones good

ones are the ones that you get by logic in the same context you're improving

something this is what engineers like to do take something it already exists and

make it better okay you want to get a

completely new idea you have to have a bingo and this bingo operates in

different areas so Arthur Kessler said you know if you're telling a joke this

is a joke isn't it the joke takes you down one path and suddenly reveals

you're in another context so if it's a joke you laugh out loud and sometimes

you do in science as well science it's

in humorous ha-ha and science it's a ha and an art it's aa because each one of

these things is designed and is set up to take you from the context you're in

to another context you ever thought of having art classes at Wells Fargo ever

thought of having art classes for your kids in school after prop 13 ever wonder

why people are dull and boring

yeah aha that's the whole point of this talk so

if we look at Kessler's way of looking at things general education is incredibly important all that stuff that

is non pragmatic is actually what we need to be creative the reason is that

if we know lots of things and we're sort of meandering our way in the pink

context where I can we usually are just our subconscious mind makes little

ripples into these other things that we know it's like a little ripple into the

blue context for a second and then flashing back out because the the pink context said oh no that's not what we're

talking about so these little distractions that are going on people

who are good creative thinkers know how to make those distractions appear they

get them out of their subconscious and can make them explode into these ideas

the more you know the more context you have to change from the way you're

thinking into some new way here's

another problem I love frogs they're just the best example we probably all of us had front

have frog blood in us there's another thing you can do with a frog you can put

it in a pot of water and turn on the heat really low and that frogs nervous

system is not set up to detect absolute temperature so it will never climb out

of the pot you'll just sit there and

gradually boil now the Frog the previous frog with the Flies I think of as

science this one I think of his business [Laughter]

let's be really careful and deliberate

and we'll really think this out and meanwhile okay here's for about a

hundred thousand years ago here are some hand axes so here's here's one of the

earliest tools that humans used you notice it has a flaw in the design when

you pound on it this goes into your palm you pound on it it pounds back into your

palm and later on they made an improvement is they flattened out this

part so when you pound on it it wouldn't pound back into your palm and the thing

I like especially about this is that the interval of time between the picture on

the left and the picture on the right is about two hundred thousand years you can

imagine every once in a while somebody in a village would say you know if we just flattened this thing off and they

take this guy and burn him at the stake going against tradition the way it's

always been done against reality because

the problem is that every time somebody does something like this they're actually violating somebody else's

notion of reality that is why people hang on so much they're willing to do almost anything rather than be pulled

out of what they're comfortable with so basically what we are today are cave

people with briefcases

we're the same genetically as we were a hundred thousand years ago but instead

of being able to learn our culture by age 7 or 8 and then committing to it for

the rest of our life we actually have major changes every three or four years

this is what is screwing us up and when

a crisis comes along how do we do it we use our guts one of my favorite things

in the paper a couple of days ago in the New York Times maybe you saw in the

business section it said the Fed uses

its instinct to set the the interest

rate they said we use our instinct to

set the ants they're talking about an economy with millions and millions of

different parts and they're trying to use their instinct yeah this is like

voodoo another one I saw today and the USA

Today was good there was a spokesman from the tobacco Institute saying they

did a survey that showed that many more people in America knew that cigarette

smoking was dangerous to their health than new who gave the Sermon on the

Mount it's only one in three knew it was Jesus that gave the Sermon on the Mount

but 80 percent of the people in America and almost everybody who smoked knew it

was dangerous so why don't they quit my

cardiologist I talked to a couple of months ago said 300,000 Americans will

die this year from cardiovascular

disease that was easily preventable by just changing that we're told by their

doctors that all I had to do is change their diet and exercise patterns why not

they quit the reason is our nervous system is not set up to be interested in

long-term events it's set up to be wary of saber-tooth Tigers we love short

quick remember Jessica McClure little girl in the well in Texas 58 hours she

was in there and many Americans watch that almost continuously see what happened during those 58 hours a hundred

and five thousand children in the world died from preventable causes every year

in 94 in 93 there's a holocaust worth of

children dying from preventable causes 10 million dying from starvation and

dehydration and so forth we can't even deal with it we can't imagine it and so

we fastened on to one little girl in a well who wasn't even hurt right this is

nuts this is not sane

our mind is tiny we look at an epidemic

when it's starting off through a little

keyhole you see nothing that's what

happened when aids was announced every scientist in this country knew that if

you have a disease that is contagious

fatal and you don't have a cure you have one of these guys but nobody could see

it and so nobody did anything you know many people are going to die in Africa

in the next 12 years 35 million young

Vinney in the Pacific Rim 42 million according to the World Health

Organization they're politicians still don't get it because nobody is dying

like that now we can't use our common

sense to deal with the complexity of the world that are in today we have to use

something beyond common sense we have to use symbolic models of the world because

we have to do something before we just walk off the cliff so the whole whole

problem that I'm talking about here has

to do with dealing with things that are more complex than our common sense was

set up for problem solving which is what these teach in school is a terrible way

of getting ahead mosquitoes solve it with DDT wind up with more

mosquitoes because you're not just working with mosquitoes you're working

with an ecology the DDT kills the fish mosquitoes breed faster than the fish

the mosquitoes breed resistant strains faster than the fish you wind up with

less fish and they were eating most of the larvae of the mosquitoes and all of

a sudden you have more mosquitoes and the DDT doesn't work anymore this is what happens time after time because the

truth is is that we're involved in very complex systems and you should be aware

of this I'm sure being in the banking business it's nonlinear it's not

something that you can sit and turn a couple of dots and know what's going to happen like the Fed tries to do with the

economy

quality doesn't work three recent winners of the Baldrige award General

Motors IBM and Dec why does equality

work because the only way you can get Six Sigma good at something is to have

done it for a long time and in this high-tech world that means you're

obsolete long before you ever get there Bill Gates doesn't want Microsoft to

ever get Six Sigma good at what they do that's not the thing what you have to be

is be fitted to the times as they are not getting really you can only get

really great at something if it's not going to change on you so total quality management is a farce

in high tech arenas so coming back you

have to look at McLuhan again I don't know who discovered water but it wasn't

a fish we have to try and make that work for us this time I'm going to actually

going to skip over the video and just go to this so the trick behind this stuff

is you can only learn to see when you realize you're blind you have to admit

it this is what scientists do in order

to deal with science you have to ignore what your hands tell you about touching

things what your eyes tell you about the world and you have to try and dig deeper

than what your senses and common sense are telling you it is really hard to do

so one of things you can do is you can make a better goldfish ball this is what Wells Fargo should do difference between

four hundred years ago coming out of the Middle Ages and the Renaissance and now

is that we're now self-conscious about these goldfish bowls and we can

structure them when you do something like an programming language you're

making a goldfish bowl for people it's a paradigm it's a collection of beliefs

it's a way of doing things these things are incredibly powerful because of the

way our minds work we can't change the way our minds work in any direct way but

we can change the context in which they do work

we see what we know if you take most

people who did it drawing like this would be thrown out of art class in fact

this person was this is what they did after just a couple of months later a

self-portrait of themselves and this is another portrait done by the person who

did this picture on the top after about three months in fact you can become an

incredibly good artist in almost any area in just a few months our ability to

learn things is much much greater than we think in fact most people are more ignorant

most people think of themselves as stupid but they're actually smarter than

they think they are the problem is that most people know less than they think

they do all right so we're constrained much more by what we know about the

world than what our latent abilities are we can make these multiple mentalities

which are always fighting each other work for us for instance this is this is

sorry this is almost illegible but this is a coherent essay a page long done by

a five-year-old and she'd only been writing for about three months three or

four months of course second and third graders often don't write very coherent

essays so how do how did the teacher get her to write this coherent essays well

it happens that children especially can't sequence symbolically the symbolic

part of their mind isn't set up for sequencing but they can do really good

sequencing iconically so what the teacher had the child do is to draw a

movie of the story she had in mind all children even we've tested children down

to the age of even three and a half and four can draw a coherent storyboards try

this with your children you'll also notice something really

strange and wonderful when they're drawing the storyboard they can draw better than when they draw a regular

drawing there's something about the focusing of it we still don't understand

then having done a coherent story board

over there the teacher then says write one or two sentences about each of the

panels and when the child does that they get a coherent essay that has a

beginning middle and end now is that cheating is it I don't think so I mean

if that's cheating calculus is cheating right the whole idea is we have to cheat

we're not smart enough not to get by

without finding these scaffolds we can

work our buns off in the wrong context

well three mentalities how about a way of grabbing things for user-interface

how about a way of using our ability to remember things in terms of images and

how about a way of dealing with symbolic renderings of those things and if you

put those together you get this machine in this interface

that's how it came about we took a psychological model about the

way people actually seem to think spend a couple of years trying to understand

it in the terms of communication between human and machine and came up with a

much better way of doing a user interface so the whole point here is

that by changing the context in which

you're in which you're thinking about things you can change the results not in

quantitative ways but in qualitative ways so the strongest weapon that you

have for exploring the future is the one

between your ears providing it's loaded thank you

okay now we have time for some some questions

and I love to answer questions so please

don't be shy yes

well I think I think everybody heard that didn't they basically is saying

from experiences that I've had being on

advisory boards and so forth and talking to large companies what mistakes do

people make well mistake is the wrong word because

the it's very it's quite rare for companies to actually make mistakes what

they do is to do things perfectly logically in the wrong place right and

those aren't really mistakes they're ill-chosen paths so the one of the major

things that companies don't do is to even look at this country as a model

this country doesn't have zillions of rules compared to say Germany it has a

constitution the constitution is kind of the DNA and it's designed to provide

maximum diversity and still allow us to

argue with each other right science what happened when science was invented is

people basically started saying this is

coming out of the 15th and 16th centuries was saying when Galileo's

telescope showed the four moons of Jupiter orbiting around a center in the

heavens that wasn't the earth it toppled the church's cosmology because this was

dogma right this was actually the Word of God that there was only one Center of

motion in the universe and that was the earth so that was devastating basically

the the conclusion that people came from that is we can't get involved in dogma

if we're going to get ahead the problem is if you don't get involved in dogma

how can you do anything all right isn't everybody's opinion the same right so

this is misplaced democracy everybody's opinion is say no everybody's opinion

isn't the same so how do you resolve that the way he resolved it is setting up a system for argument science is a

system for argument as Richard Feynman likes to say science means you don't

have to trust the experts right because there's

no scientific claim that you can't test you don't have to believe anybody but if

you want to play in science you have to be tough on the argument so what most

companies don't do is to set up a situation where they can argue well most

companies are terrible at arguing because they take arguing personally

right and that is no case and so what you get is party lines and dogma and all

that the paraphernalia of the past what you need to do is to have a way of

separating out personalities from the

fact that there are very difficult issues that need to be feared long and

hard and they have to be taken down to the essence or else you're just going to

get another wave another five year plan like the Russians used to do yielding

nothing because they refuse to look at the basis of Marxism and ask whether

there was anything there or not right so I think the thing is is to try and

convert from a dogmatic hierarchical system because if you think about

American businesses are distressingly undemocratic fact I think of them as

being like hunting and gathering societies as compared to agriculture my

American businesses try to put their competitors out of business

whereas farmers never do why because a

farmer needs all the other farmers to come help him build his barn so farmers

do limited competition on Saturdays they go out and help each other on Tuesdays

and they spend the rest of the time trying to get their farm going a lot so a lot of agricultural metaphors have

never come into business in any strong way one of the ones I used at lunch is

an agriculture you need to let your fields even in the Bible it says let

your fields lie fallow one year and seven that means you're giving up 14

percent of your return in order to be there 20 years from now right that's a

research budget 14 percent that's what it means American businesses can't

understand they're always top soil stripping and what do you get when you

topsoil strip you get a Dust Bowl and that is what we have got

so the only way these changes can happen is if the reward system has to be

changed by the top-most management to

investing some part in the future in a serious way not in a token nice way and

to I believe that people will not change unless there is some reward for failure

tell you a funny story I was I gave a

talk at the Stanford 25th anniversary of computer science and there 75 Silicon

Valley companies in the room and I was talking about told the story at Xerox

PARC when I when I first did the overlapping window interface I use a demo up to various Xerox executives and

one guy I went shoe and showed how the windows came up and this is so much

easier and expands the effective area of the display and this and that blah blah

blah and at the end as I said what's really great about this stuff is it only has a 20% chance of success we're taking

risk just like you asked us to he looked at me and he said boy that's great but

just make sure it works right the American businessman is idea

of risk being that 20 percent 100 percent of the time but it isn't it's

like baseball Ty Cobb's lifetime batting average was 367 two out of three times

he made out right they have to invest

when you're doing things that involve some risk it's not possible to hit a baseball perfectly every time it's a

very hard thing to do it's not possible to be right every time but the thing is

you can assure yourself of being wrong every time if you don't do the investment because then you just wind up

with a dust ball another question yes

first of all I was really delighted to hear you talk about Doug Engelbart oh

yeah me too trite but I'm a fan one of

the things that he's recently been working on is what he calls

bootstrapping corporations into the 21st century yeah and you touched on this you

talked about how businesses can improve themselves and one of the things he was

trying to get across without a key to the long-term vitality of an

organization is to get better and better at improving itself and I was curious

what you thought about his concept of for example most Fargo being a bank

naturally keeps things very private from

Bank of America and other competitors one of the engl Barts positions is that

we should actually be collaborating with one another yeah to improve the process

for everyone so I'd like to hear your thoughts on them yeah well the trick there of course our antitrust laws

so we have a harder time doing caresses than the Japanese do but basically I

mean here is a really you can throw tomatoes if you want but I mean the the

crudest statement I can think of is that in science you want to help your buddy

your competitor because there was a way

of doing it and getting credit for it namely they they get really shat on if

they don't put your name as a source of this part of the idea so in science you

tell everybody everything and there's a way of not losing in the reward system

and science has been one of the fastest

growing things in business the idea is let's screw our buddies because

especially in the short term when we're measuring in the short term we can always see little ways of cheating in

order to make the short term better and if there's no long term theory then I

think there's a there's a super problem I mean the truth is the companies do

collaborate by for instance sending people to standards committees of

various kinds there's a whole layer of company Apple is involved in quite a

number of consortiums there are 50 and 60 companies big and they include people

that are competitors of each other but for instance everybody knows that unless

we get network standards worked out in a reasonable way and we have a theory of

object protocols that work out where it's actually going to hold things up for another decade and so there's this

whole thing about how can we get the state-of-the-art stuff here and not just

try and beat everybody else to market but have some ecological theory now

angle Bart by the way invented the term

bootstrapping and invented it back in the 60s and he was giving that talk back

when I first met him which is a 1966 so he's been constantly trying to do

this and he it's a similar talk affects some of the parts of my talk I've adapted from his great old talk that he

used to to give about these we improve ourselves by improving our tools and the

tools McLuhan like to say we shape the tools and then the tools come around and

reshape us so you have to be very careful about the tools that we make and

how they reshape us know that yes Ian's standards and I was working in

marketplace that you have standards and you also want empower the individual to do their own thing how do you see that

balance being able to give a person freedom but also want to have standards

so everybody can move quickly it sounds like it's different directions but we have to find out it's that's that's a

really good question and it goes back to the Constitution idea I I was one of

about 20 people who worked on the

ARPANET 20 30 people who worked on the ARPANET and it's the thing that became

the Internet and one of the things we problems we had back then was the ARPA

projects had different computers he networks basically and heterogeneous

computer that's just shafted that way

you're going to get different mixes and so you have to sort of face up to it and

that was in 1968 it was just when I was starting to design OOP systems and I

realized that objects by their very nature of having a separate inside and

an outside we're perfect to go from different machines a different machine they could even carry different code

along with them and nobody was the wiser they could carry an interpreter with

them like PostScript does in case there isn't something that knows how to compile them and so when you think about

it just the notion of an object or the

notion of a cell think of how many different cell types we have they all run from the same DNA right so the

compatibility is done by not allowing gratuitous information outside of the

cell right so if you send objects around so people can be infinitely they can do

anything they want put it inside of an object and as long as the object can be

recognized by various protocols and api's that object can run on a wide

variety of different machines and still be completely idiosyncratic to what the

creative person wants to do so you can think of that as you know it's a

biological most of the answers I have to questions like that came out of I used

to be a molecular biologist a long time ago and thing you have to realize is a

biology is so much more complicated than anything computer people do it's by you

know tens of orders of man for instance a bacteriological cell which we have

lots in our but our body is about a hundred gigabytes worth of information

processing machinery and the processing

pattern matches are done in in sub microsecond speed all right so you

happen it's just so typical one of those things is like fifty thousand four

megabyte despot desktop computers that's one bacterium one bacterium is one five

hundredth the size of a typical cell in our body right we have ten trillion

cells in our body now the thing you have

to realize is that what's happening in our body is hundreds and hundreds of

thousands even millions of cells are dying every day

do everybody know that the atoms in our

body don't last for more than seven years even in our bones they're replaced

so we humans biological organisms are patterns moving through time and space

material comes into us and it goes out of us the pattern stays behind right so

there's a constant dynamic organization now why are we still alive the answer is

that more things are going right with us and are going wrong compare that to your

COBOL program where one line of code now let's see it wasn't well as far go but

what Bank was at Chemical Bank one line

of C code right and all of a sudden

people were having every time they took something out it was twice as much as

taken out how can you do that come on we

shouldn't you think of that kind of stuff as I mean if you're gonna use transaction systems can't you imagine

transactions at the code level like it's

like do you really want to program in a procedural language when you should be

programming in terms of constraints that's the way you do that when you do

that you wind up with something that's like a biological it's tolerant of error because the

constraints are gonna make the overall system get to the goal anyway so it's

like all biological systems when they're following a light they don't get perfect

information back and they're not doing things perfectly but the feedback mechanism will get them to the goal

that's the way we should be programming another question yes who makes it yeah

actually I always throw that in I thought you know I've all my

professional career starting from 1968 I've worked with children the Mac was

designed for children not for adults in fact some of the drawbacks in the user

interface are because of that fact we

did that interface so we could teach children some very complicated things and the to me the because of the way our

minds work because as humans we're

inescapably drawn and thank goodness in a way to learn our culture think of the

an arc think if we weren't social they'll be frightening

so we're drawn to learn a big set of beliefs and if we want to change those

beliefs it's much easier to change them in children than in adults and so I you

know I'm sort of the opposite the Roman Catholic Church and you know I want to save the children first and they are the

ones that I can't find any way of blaming them when something is going wrong with them whereas adults I can

find infinite lists of things to blame adults for they should know better etc

etc but for children good grief so the

answer is you just keep on throwing this stuff I think the Chinese water torture

treatment is you just kept people to keep on trying to notice the things are

infinitely more complex than television can ever portray and once people start

thinking in terms other than in television where you're dealing with

individuals and start thinking in these larger abstract terms that's that's when

things start happening anybody can save one child the most

important thing is to realize that if you save one child and somebody else say is another child

and all the children will be saved yes

time to quit I would love to stop on that note okay matter of fact thank you

very much [Applause]

Difference between revisions of "Delivering the Future (1994)"

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+<subtitle id='00:00:00'> [Applause]</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:00:05'>well thank you for inviting me here I like the title of this session I think</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:00:12'>in the first year I was at Xerox PARC I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:00:16'>had an argument with some of the Xerox executives who are worrying about what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:00:22'>might happen and they wanted to defend themselves against the future it was so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:00:27'>wimpy I finally got angry at them and I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:00:31'>said look the best way to predict the future is to invent it don't worry about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:00:35'>what all those other people are going to do this is the century in which if you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:00:39'>have a vision and you don't violate too many of Newton's laws you can actually</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:00:43'>build the thing that you have in mind now delivering the future is a more</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:00:48'>subtle metaphor so it implies there's something to deliver like a baby and the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:00:55'>reason I like it is that there's all this exciting stuff that has to happen a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:00:59'>little earlier in the process in order to have a baby to deliver we scientists</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:01:06'>call that research so I'm going to talk</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:01:11'>to you a little bit about how the future</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:01:16'>gets invented I think some of the some</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:01:22'>of the stories and ideas I think may may help you now I'm not a professional</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:01:26'>speaker I'm still a scientist as my</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:01:31'>introducer said my title is a fellow we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:01:36'>decided at Apple that the mass noun for know there's a pride of lions we decided</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:01:43'>that the mass now and for fellows should be jolly</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:01:47'>so we have a jolly of fellows at at Apple we have three of them now twenty</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:01:57'>years ago at Xerox PARC we invented six</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:02'>things and I would not be here talking</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:06'>to you if Xerox had accepted any one of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:10'>these it was in fact what happened after</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:17'>we invented these six things that I got</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:22'>interested in talking to people outside</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:26'>of the computer field the six things were the first thing like a workstation</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:32'>or a modern PC really the first thing like a Macintosh originally started</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:38'>working in 1973 the first overlapping window user interface first modern OOP</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:44'>system first laser printer and the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:52'>ethernet and then the the sixth thing I didn't have a really good picture</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:02:56'>because I just show another Alto there which was what we call client-server</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:03:01'>computing now in today's terms it's actually pierre-pierre computing because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:03:07'>clients see terms get corrupted I made</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:03:11'>up the terms personal computer and I made up the term object-oriented and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:03:15'>both of those have gotten corrupted into an almost meaningless terms</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:03:19'>client-server has gotten corrupted it's the new way of saying terminal mainframe</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:03:27'>I can assure you that was not what we had in mind any more than we thought</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:03:33'>that C++ would be called an object-oriented language or that the IBM</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:03:39'>PC would be called a personal computer I was more meanings originally or that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:03:45'>windows 3.0 would be called a user interface as far as that goes but that's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:03:53'>the way it goes now what happened is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:03:57'>that around 1975 76 we had about 700 of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:03'>these machines both at Palo Alto and in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:07'>Rochester and we had I guess eight or</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:11'>nine Ethernet linked together and then linked by long lines from Rochester to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:17'>Palo Alto and you could actually sit down and do something in Rochester that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:22'>is very hard to do today you could go to Rochester and sit down at an alto and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:27'>work as though that was your alto so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:32'>this was a what you what today is called a natural network virtual address space</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:37'>the computations actually were able to float around the network they were not</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:41'>bound to specific machines and what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:45'>happened was in August 1976 Xerox turned</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:49'>down all of this technology even though there were hundreds of machines working</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:54'>software the first desktop publishing system Microsoft Word which was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:04:59'>originally called Bravo was done at Parc it was the word processing system that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:05:05'>we used all of this stuff they turned it down of course that was a great shock</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:05:10'>but what did we know we kept on plugging</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:05:15'>away at at what we're doing in 1978 I met several of the executives who had</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:05:20'>made that decision and was really surprised to discover that they were actually somewhat intelligent even even</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:05:27'>for Xerox executives and then that was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:05:32'>when I started worrying because you see when they turned it down we just thought well they're stupid they're dumb what do</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:05:39'>they know you know this is hopeless but when I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:05:44'>found out they were intelligent and they still turned it down I realized that something much more serious was going on</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:05:49'>and one way of saying it as they were still doing Ptolemaic astronomy in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:05:54'>Connecticut and we had started doing Copernican astronomy out in California</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:05:58'>when you get one of those where you get a complete miss between two ways of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:06:05'>looking at the world you have something really serious because there aren't even grounds for conversation and what's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:06:11'>worse the same words get used over again but in different ways in astronomy the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:06:17'>word orbit comes from one of the initial beliefs by the Greeks that the planets</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:06:23'>are on transparent spheres you ever wonder why a planar orbit was called orb</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:06:28'>in orbit because they thought they were on glass spheres then it got taken over</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:06:33'>to mean planar orbits got reused by</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:06:37'>Copernicus to me and a heliocentric system got really used by Newton and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:06:41'>Kepler and got reused by Einstein same word we use today the way people have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:06:47'>trouble with science science unfortunately decided to reuse the word</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:06:51'>theory and people when they hear about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:06:56'>the theory of relativity they say oh that's just a theory or the theory of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:00'>evolution that's just a theory theory and science means something completely</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:05'>different we separate out the two words</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:09'>theory and conjecture it's a theory and science is something that has been set</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:14'>up in such a way and beaten on for years so it is a ball stirred set of arguments</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:19'>why don't we call it the truth the reason is is that science doesn't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:23'>believe that you can find truth it's a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:27'>cliche and a myth does science believes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:31'>that what you can find are better and better mappings of the world so that's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:35'>what I'm going to talk to you today about are because the way you get into</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:39'>the future is by realizing that the way we look at the world in any given time</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:44'>is always through our own mappings and we can come up with different mappings</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:49'>and when we come up with different mappings we can look at the world in a different way now</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:07:55'>the big problem with predicting the future is in large part because of the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:01'>funny ways that human like to think so here are three ways of getting from A to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:07'>B the first one is random walk you start off from place a there on the left and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:13'>at every corner you take a random turning and eventually you can prove</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:17'>that you will get to B I always think of that as a perfect example of hire</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:22'>management's main way of doing things</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:27'>now lower in the organization you have a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:32'>more rational way of looking at it which is reduce the differences this is what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:37'>they teach in business school and in most elementary and high schools and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:43'>colleges is problem-solving problem-solving the way you solve a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:48'>problem here is that at each step of the way you see if you can get closer to the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:53'>gold state and then when you have reduced that difference to zero you've</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:08:57'>achieved the goal now it turns out that both of these ways of doing things are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:09:01'>completely have been obsolete for many many years the way really good things</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:09:07'>are done is at the bottom there and what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:09:11'>you do is instead of going from A to B randomly or by reducing differences what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:09:18'>you do is you go away from B for a while and find us find a superhighway because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:09:25'>you can go away from B for a while and you find a superhighway you can get very</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:09:29'>very close to B be very very rapidly then get off find B now this is very</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:09:35'>hard for people to do companies have the hardest time going away from their short</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:09:40'>term goals in order to build structures</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:09:44'>that will allow them to deal with many</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:09:48'>many goals in the future rather than just the ones that they're working with now you could think of this third way of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:09:55'>looking at things as a architecture if you want you could think of it as a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:00'>paradigm that's going away from the goal</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:05'>sometimes called research it's the kind of investment that you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:11'>make in order to find large-scale architectures that are going to help you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:15'>so if we want to predict the future we have to find some way that is not</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:20'>extrapolate 'iv something that doesn't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:24'>rely on the future being a lot like the present where else we're just going to come up with improved versions of the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:29'>present so here is a dream called MMX is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:36'>done by Vannevar Bush who is president roosevelt's science advisor who wrote an</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:42'>article in 1945 and in that article he said not too long from now everybody</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:46'>will be able to have in their house a device the size of a desk in that desk</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:52'>stored optically will be the contents of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:10:56'>about a small town library about five to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:00'>ten thousand volumes worth of materials and we'll be able to search that we'll</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:04'>be able to look on look at this material</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:09'>on various screens and we'll have pointing devices that we can put new</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:14'>information in and keyboards and etc etc so this is Memex written in 1945 by a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:22'>pretty good scientist I had some good reasons to believe that this could</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:26'>happen because he was aware of things that were going on at the time including</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:31'>the development of computers and of various kinds of dry photography</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:35'>microfilm microfiche and so forth we're all being developed then the critical</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:41'>thing about this for the story today is that a number of the people who invented</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:46'>the technologies that you're using today saw this Engelbart who was a towering</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:53'>figure we'll meet him in a minute saw this in 1945 he was in the Navy and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:11:57'>he read it read this version in Life magazine had pictures on it I saw it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:05'>when I was 14 years old as a result of reading a science fiction book in 1954</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:11'>so and other people saw it and when it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:15'>came time to actually do it there was already an image of what it would be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:20'>really nice to have it didn't look at all like ENIAC a huge</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:25'>mainframe computer for solving ballistic problems it didn't look like a univac it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:31'>didn't look like a any kind of mainframe</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:35'>computer in IBM 650 this looked like something that a person could use and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:40'>actually this became the rallying cry starting around 1960 ok so there are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:46'>several different ways of thinking about computing back then one was that the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:51'>mainframe was gone of a universal factory that was IBM's way of thinking</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:12:56'>about it Engelbert thought of computing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:00'>as a kind of a vehicle now Engle Bart</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:04'>was the guy who invented the mouse and that looks like a fairly modern picture</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:11'>because let me ask the crowd here how many people have in their office right now a two-page display right not one of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:19'>these little guys but one of these guys you can put two two full pages of display okay couple people so there's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:25'>one right there that was the first one anybody ever used that picture was taken</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:29'>in 1966 okay so in 1966 Engelbart had</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:36'>thought through that computers were not about processing numbers they were</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:41'>actually there to relate information now he was one of the people who invented</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:45'>one of the first word processors but he didn't think computers were for word</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:49'>processing he didn't think they were for outlying processing he thought that they were for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:13:54'>relating information and he realized something very very profound about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:14:00'>computing that is an ordinary physical</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:14:09'>space that we live in if we have point a here and we have a point B down here it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:14:16'>isn't the same place</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:14:21'>what's been generated in between them is that horrible thing called distance an</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:14:27'>angle Bart realized something very interesting about distance and that is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:14:32'>if here's that this is a two dimensional space we have a two dimensional distance</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:14:38'>but what's incredible about distance is if you give me one more dimension I can</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:14:44'>get rid of the distance right just one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:14:48'>more dimension than the dimension of my information and I can get all of the intervention interesting information in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:14:53'>the same place in hyperspace and I can</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:14:57'>do it for any number of them</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:01'>that's what Engelbart did so he was the guy who invented what we now call</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:05'>hypertext or hyper media he realized that what people really want is not an</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:10'>imitation of paper they want something better they don't want to automate old</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:16'>things what they need is to take all the interesting information about a wide</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:21'>number of things and exits so that all of those things are in the same place</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:25'>and Ivan Sutherland around the same time</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:30'>did something wonderful he was the guy who invented computer graphics it was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:34'>invented around 1962 and again he just didn't do it to imitate paper to imitate</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:39'>drafting he looked at and said what else can it do this is what we should always</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:44'>ask most important question what else can it do and what it could do is it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:50'>could simulate things so on this thing this picture taken in 1962 Sutherland is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:55'>sitting in front of a bridge that he's drawn and sketchpad and that bridge is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:15:59'>dynamically sustaining a weight and showing him what the stresses and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:04'>strains on the bridge are so here are three completely different metaphors for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:09'>computing I think you'll agree that the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:13'>dominant metaphor today is still the Universal Factory</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:17'>American business by and large uses</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:21'>computers to automate accounting I'm sure that Wells Fargo does really do</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:28'>they think of it as a vehicle for traversing hyperspace where all of the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:34'>stuff of interest to you should be available dynamically and rarely do they think of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:38'>it as a simulator for being able to deal with very complex problems and try and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:44'>understand what happens next now individuals do about 70% of the use</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:49'>of spreadsheets on personal computers our what-ifs but IT organizations almost</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:16:56'>never do IT organizations run post-mortems on already in bomb de right</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:17:05'>by the time they get around to writing an application which is usually 18</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:17:09'>months after it was requested the information is not of interest anymore</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:17:14'>so the metaphor that we pick for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:17:18'>thinking about what computing is is very very critical now I started thinking</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:17:24'>about I started in 1961 and I started thinking about this stuff and it I was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:17:29'>very intrigued with angle Bart's stuff and in 1967 I built this machine in the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:17:36'>center the top Center there it was called the Flex machine so it looks like</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:17:41'>a personal computer of today it was a personal computer was a desktop computer</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:17:46'>for very special deaths namely those made out of steel so weighed about 400</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:17:52'>pounds and had a had a fan that was likened to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:17:57'>a 747 taking off C in those days the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:01'>integrated circuit packages integrated circuits were very very small they only</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:05'>had about 16 or 32 gates on them and so this machine which was quite weak by</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:10'>today's standards had more than 700 of those little black boxes in it and so it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:16'>generated a lot of heat and then I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:20'>happened to see some of seymour papert's early work with logo and it got me</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:25'>thinking all of a sudden that computers were not Veals</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:29'>computers were like media they were like media and I suddenly remembered</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:34'>something quite striking I don't know</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:40'>how many people here have ever been in a medieval library there's one still set</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:45'>up in Florence and what they look like is there a room about four times this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:50'>size there are no shelves why because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:54'>most libraries had less than a hundred books one of the largest libraries in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:18:58'>Europe the Vatican Library in the year</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:02'>1400 only had 392 books each Brook took</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:06'>about 10 to 15 years to copy by a group of group of monks so when he went into a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:13'>medieval library what you saw were tables reading areas each book was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:19'>chained to the table table after table</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:25'>after table about a hundred of them and so they it flashed into my mind that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:29'>looks just like a time-sharing bullpen right time sharing terminals using</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:35'>something so expensive only an institution could own it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:40'>individuals accept that unless they were kings couldn't own this stuff and then I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:47'>flashed to Gutenberg's Bible which was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:51'>printed but it was printed in imitation of this stuff and I suddenly looked at</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:19:57'>the Flex machine and said you know that thing looks just like a time-sharing terminal is this am I just imitating the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:05'>past what is this thing by the way Guttenberg</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:09'>buy it the first Gutenberg Bibles were incredibly cheap costs only two years of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:15'>a clerks wages to buy one it was about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:19'>sixty thousand dollars today and if you think of that if you think of that as</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:24'>about what a workstation costs expensive</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:28'>workstation costs compared to the millions of dollars from one of these things it is rather cheap but what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:33'>flashes of my mind then was the turning</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:37'>point in the development of the book which was this third stage and that was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:41'>done by a guy by the name of Aldous not Elvis PageMaker that could have been his</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:48'>name because he was a printer in Venice that's where the company got their name</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:53'>Aldus Manutius around 1495 decided books</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:20:58'>should not be like this so the Gutenberg galaxy I mean the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:02'>Gutenberg Bible and manuscripts but he</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:07'>decided that book should be the size they are today you've ever wondered why</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:13'>books are the size they are today it could be any size it could be really</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:18'>small it could be big this size I'll</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:22'>tell you why because that is the size that saddlebags were in Venice Aldous</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:29'>went out and measured saddlebags and took the average saddlebag size and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:33'>decided to print a library or she called the portable library in 1495 so that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:39'>people could take them with now this is a profound idea because Elvis was the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:43'>first person who really realized that books were now something that could be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:48'>lost it was not a crime against humanity</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:52'>to lose a book because he could go buy another one okay so that happened around</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:21:58'>1495 and suddenly I suddenly realized that a computer should look like this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:22:05'>should be something the size of a book should be something that you always have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:22:10'>with you and I made that cardboard model</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:22:14'>in 1968 that's what a computer should</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:22:18'>look like now just to give you an idea to try and understand why the the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:22:23'>situation we're in today here is a completely transitional one this is a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:22:31'>much Stabler form than this one you have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:22:36'>to realize that remember printing was invented around 1450 to 1450 for Aldous</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:22:44'>was 1495 wasn't until 1516 more than 60</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:22:51'>years after the printing press was invented that anybody thought to put page numbers on a book think about that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:23:00'>how could they have meant notice Elvises Brooke here has no page numbers how</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:23:06'>could they possibly not have done the reason was is that when you only have 392 books in the world's largest library</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:23:12'>and it if you're really rich and you may have at home five or ten books why have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:23:18'>page numbers you know where everything is books are a celebration of what you already know so when we think about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:23:25'>computers today one of the things we have to really understand is that we are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:23:29'>in a transitional phase and that the use of computers by humans is going to be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:23:35'>completely different than it is today just as the use today is completely</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:23:40'>different from what it was 20 years ago that's the importance of making sharp</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:23:45'>boundaries between these different ways of thinking about things now this all</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:23:51'>would have been fantasy and science fiction except for people like Gordon</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:23:57'>Moore Gordon Moore was a physicist in 1965 he published the white part of this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:06'>diagram which said you know from 1959</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:11'>whoops sorry from 1959 up to about 1965 things have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:18'>been improving at about the rate of factor of two every year in integrated</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:22'>circuits he said I wonder if that can continue so he started looking at the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:27'>physics of integrated circuits that gave him this line</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:32'>a few years later he said this line is too ambitious I'll predict that it will</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:36'>grow by a factor of two every two years which gave him this line and just for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:41'>your enjoyment here the purple line is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:45'>what actually happened right so it's grown slightly better it's grown about a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:50'>factor of two every eighteen months since 1965 and Gordon Moore's prediction</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:24:56'>was a 30-year prediction now in order to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:02'>make this prediction he had to back away he had to do remember my diagram he had</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:06'>to go away from B because the silicon</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:11'>that people were using was not a predictable silicon it was not easy to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:18'>make predictions about it so he picked a simpler way of doing things which is thought to be too slow and made his</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:23'>predictions based on that that slow silicon happens to be a silicon we used</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:27'>today MOS silicon this single chart if</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:36'>well understood explains why IBM and Dec are in such trouble today explains why</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:42'>we have millions and millions of personal computers today it explains why</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:47'>people were not able to predict the future in a reasonable way because this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:51'>is an exponential curve this is talking about a factor of 10 million change in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:25:56'>20 years so almost everything that we're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:01'>doing today is based on this now the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:06'>thing is you have to realize about the human nervous system is that factors of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:10'>10 and factors of a hundred change our qualitative to us they may look on paper</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:17'>quantitative but a factor of 10 change in speed is qualitative to us what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:23'>happened to IBM because they were aware of this is they couldn't believe that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:29'>this meant anything other than they would be able to make cheaper mainframes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:33'>and make more profit on them they could not imagine the actual implications of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:39'>being able to put an entire computer on a chip and that there would have to be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:44'>millions of them so they lost they missed so these three</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:49'>ways of looking at things I gave names to I called the mainframe</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:53'>thing institutional computing I called the desktop machine personal computing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:26:58'>and I called this handheld Aldus type computer an intimate computer and in the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:06'>late 60s I sat down and tried to write down some of the conclusions that a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:12'>person would reach for in each of these belief structures now another word</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:18'>that's been devalued almost beyond repair is paradigm right paradigm is a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:25'>belief structure so you could just as easily say this is the institutional</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:30'>paradigm the personal computing paradigm or the intimate paradigm doesn't matter</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:35'>scientists like paradigms because it is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:39'>so hard to think about things that aren't already around so we play all</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:44'>kinds of tricks and mind games and one of the ones that we do is to drive artificial boundaries between things to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:50'>see if we can find differentiation so this is one of those things saying these</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:27:55'>are three different ways of thinking about the world and what are the implications whoops sorry about that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:03'>the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:08'>now what types one of the ways of thinking about it is what types of data</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:12'>do you use institutional uses letters and numbers I discovered just a few</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:18'>years ago that my Dennis still had those green and white print out sheets needless to say I changed Dennis so I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:26'>was wondering what other old technology he might be using there's law by the way</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:33'>does anybody know who toward more is here who is Gordon Moore who did Moore's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:39'>law yeah so Moore got a lot of criticism for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:45'>that curve and so he decided to do this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:49'>thing well the best way to predict the future is to invent it so he said let's found a company to work on MOS silicon</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:54'>happened to be Intel he's one of the richest guys in California right now</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:28:59'>he's worth more than a billion dollars from that because of course see when the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:04'>astronauts got out in space and they look back at the earth you know what they saw they saw something that looked</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:09'>just like a globe that had been done in the 19th century that's what science is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:14'>all about no surprises you get out there and if</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:20'>you've done your work properly you should see what you expect to see so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:25'>Gordon Moore was right and he was able to get profit from it and if you think</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:30'>about the implications of Moore's law you're going to start using bitmap</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:34'>screens it's one of the first things we invented at Xerox PARC</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:38'>because now we could have bits bits weren't just for computation anymore and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:44'>then later on all other media was going to have to come along and one of the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:51'>implications of this is that when you get into this third stage you're not</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:29:56'>going to print printing will go away now people have been saying that for years</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:01'>and we have more paper than yes yes I know but think of it this way when your</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:07'>information is related in such a way that all important things are together</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:12'>you're not going to print it out how</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:16'>many people here do forecasting by spreadsheets</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:20'>okay who does anybody print out the spreadsheet template no you know why</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:27'>because what ones you're going to print out you're going to print out a hundred of them every one of those things you've</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:34'>done you change a number and the whole spreadsheet changes so the multi is to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:38'>think about in multimedia are not combining voice and images the multi is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:45'>to think about our multi-dimensional and multi process so as we go more and more</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:52'>towards multiply multi dimensional representations and simulations printing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:30:59'>will kill both of those things and what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:31:04'>we have now is synthetic paper that comes along just in the nick of time to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:31:10'>save us we can now have all of our dynamic information structures with us</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:31:14'>at all times so printing is finally going to go away by my friend Nicolas</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:31:22'>Monte thought of it this way thought of the worlds of publishing entertainment</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:31:27'>and computing imploding on each other because now every single one of them</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:31:32'>could have everything that they do represent it digitally when you have everything represented in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:31:36'>the same form you basically have the same business they use the same</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:31:42'>transmission everybody who has access to the Internet is a publisher you can</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:31:49'>publish just as well as mcgraw-hill can in fact your if you have access to the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:31:55'>Internet you are actually a miniature FCC I don't know whether you know it but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:00'>people send television programs back and forth on the on the internet and radio</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:05'>there's a constant internet radio between scientists and stuff and there</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:12'>are no channels were requested from the FCC because the internet does not care</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:17'>it's just sending bits back and forth and the bits can be anything so this is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:21'>one again that the publishers in the entertainment industry only discovered a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:27'>couple of years ago and yet it's been true once more</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:32'>Wrote is liya this is why this stuff is scary to people because it seems like</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:36'>all this stuff is suddenly happening the reason it's suddenly happening is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:40'>people will not believe a disaster until it's actually in front of their eyes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:45'>the whole reason we have eyes is so we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:49'>don't have to jump off the cliff to see if it's dangerous right</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:54'>we have long distance sensors and we need the equivalent of long distance</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:32:58'>sensors when we're dealing with the future user interface probably the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:33:04'>biggest change when you're over here you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:33:10'>have a few thousand users perhaps using an airlines reservation system or a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:33:14'>banking system you can train a few thousand people there's a factor of a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:33:20'>thousand between these two panels so millions can't train millions of people</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:33:27'>over here there's another factor of a thousand because this intimate computer</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:33:32'>is a lot like a phone in fact it will have a phone in it so these are billions</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:33:37'>of people millions of people it put an enormous pressure on trying to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:33:42'>understand what it would be like to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:33:46'>actually get computers to do things and we realized that the big transition</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:33:51'>would have to go from being a command environment like a control panel of a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:33:56'>nuclear reactor that's sort of what a 3270 terminal is like to a learning</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:34:01'>environment that's what forced us to invent what is now called the the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:34:06'>Macintosh style interface now what happens in the future here is something</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:34:14'>even more cataclysmic because this third panel is energized by pervasive</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:34:20'>networking think of the driving forces driving force for mainframe computers</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:34:27'>was actually business IBM didn't want to build them they wanted to stay in the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:34:31'>punch card business was it was American</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:34:35'>business that forced IBM to become a big company driving force for the second</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:34:40'>frame was integrated circuits as we've been talking about in the driving force</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:34:44'>for this third frame is pervasive networking which is happening to us now this transition is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:34:50'>going to be complete pretty much by the year 2000 billions of people are going</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:34:55'>to have to be there and so one way of thinking about this is here you have to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:02'>train the user in this one the user</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:06'>interface teaches the user that's its main job and in this one the user</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:10'>interface learns from the user in other words it actively is trying to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:15'>understand the user and what it's what it's trying to do so one way of thinking</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:21'>about this is the two ways that we've had of amplifying our reach have been</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:25'>tools Macintosh style interface is a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:29'>tool based interface it's designed to work with hand and eye and the other way</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:34'>we're used to amplifying our reach is through agents agents are creatures that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:41'>can take on our goal structure and carry out goals in our behalf and what's even</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:47'>stronger about agencies they can transmit your goals to other agents</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:53'>imagine how powerful that is some person has a few ideas in the middle-east 2000</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:35:59'>years ago gets 12 agents to be interested in it and half the half the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:04'>earth is now interested in those same</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:08'>ideas that's the power of agents over</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:12'>tools so one of the big transitions that's going to happen in the next five</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:17'>years will be the transition from tool based interfaces which we've just</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:21'>transitioned into to this softer more</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:28'>dynamic way of doing things that that networks are going to force us into</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:34'>integration of information it's usually done painfully with files using</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:43'>relational databases it's it's incredible to me that after more than 20</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:48'>years almost 25 years now the less than</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:53'>half of the databases in America's fortune 500 companies are relational</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:36:57'>I'm sure everybody is aware of that it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:01'>unbelievable most of them are still flat files and cut and paste in the Macintosh</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:08'>and then to active components and if we have time we can talk a little bit more</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:12'>about that as you go to more and more complex systems the parts of things have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:18'>to take more and more of the initiative for the linking what kind of software</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:24'>airline reservation system in institutional generic tool like a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:28'>spreadsheet or a word processor or desktop publishing system because you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:33'>have millions of people buying them the users have to complete the application in order to use it and in the future</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:40'>most of the applications in business</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:45'>will be done by the end users now it happens that today in the fortune 500</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:50'>companies more than half of the applications that are used in Fortune</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:37:56'>500 companies today are done by the end users not by the IT organization</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:00'>spreadsheets are the big culprit IT</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:04'>organizations hate them because they are and personal computers because they have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:09'>to give up control but in fact there is a way of leveraging the productivity of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:14'>users and we'll talk about that a little bit later each of these 3 belief systems</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:21'>has a different way of wanting to be programmed data structures and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:26'>procedures are an extremely weak way of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:30'>doing things this is COBOL and see one of the problems is if you send a data structure</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:35'>a thousand miles between point a and point B you pretty much have to matter</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:39'>transmit a programmer along with it in order for people to use it the reason is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:46'>is that the data structures themselves are dumb dead things that don't know how</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:52'>they should be used so objects particularly at Xerox PARC were invented</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:38:57'>so that when you transmit something from A to B you're also transmitting the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:01'>knowledge of how to have how to use it so the amount of code you have to write</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:06'>at the other end is very minimal and networks are going to force a completely</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:10'>different kind of jamming paradigm that we call agent oriented just to give you an idea of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:16'>this is about maybe 50 years old to go</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:22'>back to Von Neumanns original design this is about 25 plus years old I did my</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:31'>first language in 67 this one is more</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:37'>than ten years old they've never heard of this stuff but in fact people have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:41'>been working away in research labs because looking ahead we could see that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:46'>pervasive network was coming and we realized that classical objects could</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:50'>not be transmitted willy-nilly around the world and be able to be components</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:55'>of things without a lot of work that calls for a new way of thinking about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:39:59'>programming and this agent oriented way is the way we think it will work</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:40:05'>analogy to architectures the Greeks were really smart but they never invented the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:40:09'>arch so they were constrained to build</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:40:14'>rather small but beautiful temples if</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:40:18'>you want to build something bigger you have to have a different architectural principle the Gothic arch allowed</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:40:24'>cathedrals to be built that were 10 times the size of the Greek temples</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:40:28'>interestingly enough there's only slightly more material in Chartres</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:40:33'>Cathedral than there was in the Parthenon all right because Gothic cathedrals are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:40:38'>mostly air and windows and then geodesic</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:40:42'>domes using a completely different theory can you can make a geodesic dome</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:40:47'>that will go over all of the Gothic cathedrals made on earth using a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:40:51'>different architecture the way we improve ourselves is by changing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:40:55'>architectures we have the same IQ we had ten thousand years ago imagine having an</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:02'>IQ of 250 in the year 10,000 BC what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:07'>could you do not a lot all right Leonardo probably had an IQ of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:13'>250 he did a lot of drawings but he</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:17'>could hardly build anything because he wasn't in a place where he could</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:21'>leverage his IQ you leverage IQ with knowledge and architectures these are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:26'>the thing most important things the human race comes up with our different ways of thinking about things that allow</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:32'>us to appear much smarter than we did years ago so here's a my favorite</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:38'>metaphor for the future Nicholas Negroponte II said once we'll know it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:43'>the future when my left cufflink communicates with my right cuff link via</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:47'>satellite this sort of sums it all up</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:41:53'>now let me ask you do you think Nicholas was being facetious no in fact by the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:02'>year 2000 you will be able to have a cuff link size thing that can go up to a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:06'>satellite and come down you ever called</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:10'>at dinner if you have a cellular phone and your friend has one and you've</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:15'>talked to each other across the dinner table with your cellular phones do you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:19'>have any idea of where the information is going in order to come back okay so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:27'>this is a way of thinking about I like</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:31'>this one because it's so so you tray it's very Nicolas like it's so tray that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:37'>it gets people thinking about wow this is not the computing I thought we were</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:41'>doing so particularly the future is easy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:46'>it hasn't changed in 20 years that's the number one thing you have to understand</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:51'>it takes so long to get this stuff out of labs it takes even longer to convince</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:42:56'>venture capitalists and other people to support it every technology that's going</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:00'>to affect you in the next 10 years is already in somebody's lap so one of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:06'>things you have to ask yourself do you pay somebody even half time to go around</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:10'>and visit the 40 or so labs in the world that count probably not so how do you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:16'>know you're gonna wait until Businessweek discovers it they don't understand half of these</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:21'>technologies most scientists like myself spend part of our time just visiting</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:26'>other people's research labs because we can't wait for journals to come out</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:30'>journals are always two years behind and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:34'>so most of the stuff virtually everything that is going to affect you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:38'>already exists in some demonstratable form and you should know about it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:42'>because those are the actual tools that we are going to make it possible for you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:47'>to build the future that you want okay now here comes so that was the uplifting</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:52'>part now the problem with this picture</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:43:57'>is that every time a technological advance comes along almost everybody</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:02'>tries to automate all of their old processes we've already talked about that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:06'>that is not the way to do it because often the technology is not even as good</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:11'>as the old technology when it starts automating ever tried to read a couple</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:15'>of paragraphs off of CRT I think CRTs</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:19'>are good at automating what books do they're terrible so what you have to do</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:25'>is ask Ivan Sutherlands question which is what else can it do you have to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:30'>understand how to leverage the new properties of this technology that will</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:34'>lead to new processes in your business and unfortunately for everybody it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:40'>also going to have to require some learning on your part this is the thing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:44'>that humans hate especially Americans schools teach us to treat classes as</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:50'>vaccinations against dread diseases right remember saying thank God I'm done</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:44:56'>with that class I never have to take it again this is like getting a smallpox</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:00'>shot thank God I'm done with that vaccination now I'm safe I never have to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:06'>learn anything yet the problem is it doesn't work like that anymore in order to leverage the new we have to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:11'>learn what the new is in order to do that we have to understand how the mind works</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:15'>my favorite saying in McLuhan's is I don't know who discovered water but it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:19'>wasn't a fish this is our number one problem what he meant is that we exist</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:26'>in a goldfish bowl filled with water that we don't know exists and that water</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:31'>is called our beliefs to us we are in reality those people</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:38'>halfway across the world that think differently than we do have to be wrong and therefore we should kill them this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:45'>is the way human beings work because we're not conscious that we don't live</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:49'>in reality we live in beliefs in fact we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:53'>can't ever get to reality can't ever get</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:45:57'>to reality there is no reality that we can get to yeah beliefs and the beliefs</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:46:02'>can be good or bad Maps so this this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:46:06'>image I think is perfect if you always think of yourself as being in a goldfish bowl you have to ask yourself what color</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:46:12'>water am i swimming in right now so one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:46:16'>of the things that we do culturally is that we teach people are special</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:46:22'>goldfish bowls so we have like a different goldfish bowl and people in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:46:26'>India do or people in Lebanon</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:46:34'>okay now take a look at this face upside down face and see if you can see ting</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:46:38'>interesting about it who's got what do you think the mouth is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:46:45'>what mouth is upside down see anything</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:46:49'>else about the picture okay let's let's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:46:56'>pretend we're in a typical American school or let's say a Wells Fargo training center</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:02'>okay the dominant belief in school is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:06'>that knowledge is a fluid and the way we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:10'>teach it is we transfer drop by drop</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:14'>from the full student full teacher vessel to the empty student vessel okay</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:19'>that fluid is in terms of a language like English so let me give you a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:24'>sentence about this picture what we've done here is we've taken a picture of a young girl extracted her mouth and her</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:31'>eyes turn both of them upside down put</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:35'>them back into the picture and then turned the entire picture upside down</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:39'>okay so now you should be quite prepared</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:43'>for what it looks like right side up</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:49'>now I'm going to turn this back because I've discovered nobody will listen to me</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:47:53'>when it's on the other way now you have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:00'>to realize I didn't give you any more information the second time right what I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:05'>described in that sentence was exactly what you saw and yet you had a reaction</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:09'>on the second picture you didn't have one on the first who knows what that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:13'>means who's got a theory don't be shy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:21'>why is it worth it why is it worth a thousand words because but why yeah but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:32'>why why couldn't you why couldn't you picture what it was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:37'>going to look like from my words okay so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:43'>lots of different theory the real what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:47'>what is actually going on here and it's been confirmed in a particularly striking way as the last four or five</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:52'>years is that when you're listening to English sentences a part of your brain</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:48:57'>over here and a part of your brain over here is active okay and when you're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:04'>looking at pictures a part of your brain back here and a part of your brain down here particularly for faces is active so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:12'>you're thinking about words completely differently and with a different set of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:17'>mechanisms than you're thinking about pictures think about that this is why</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:23'>McDonald's will never run a print ad saying if you eat a McDonald's hamburger you'll become a better-looking person</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:29'>right because it's absurd in English but what do they do they run ads with</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:35'>gorgeous people holding hamburgers and a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:40'>different part of your brain a part of your brain that remembers very well but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:44'>isn't so good at thinking makes the inference the advertisers want them what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:48'>you want you to McLuhan was once asked why don't you read psychology books and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:53'>he said well psychologists study white rats he says I look to see what advertisers are doing they're the ones</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:49:58'>who are studying humans</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:50:04'>this is why the Presidential Debates which were three hours long a hundred</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:50:09'>years ago are now two minutes on each point on television right because there</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:50:16'>is nothing to think about from what television shows you and none</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:50:21'>of the politicians want you to think about any of the issues that's why they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:50:26'>come on television and you don't want to think about the issues which is why you watch them on television itself and I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:50:34'>there's an ni there's no one of us there</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:50:39'>are actually lots of us in here thinking</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:50:43'>different ways and most of the time we're not aware of it at all</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:50:47'>so Brenner was American psychologist who studied this stuff he took a six year</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:50:52'>old kid six year old kids when you pour from a squat glass into a tall thin one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:50:57'>we'll say there's more water in the tall thin glass because they're there in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:02'>what's called an iconic reasoning stage and this is pretty constant from kid to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:07'>kid around age five or six then Brenner</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:11'>did something interesting he's got a kid who would say there's more water in the tall glass and he covered up the tall</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:16'>glass with cardboard and asked the question again the kids say oh wait a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:20'>minute there can't be more water where were to go where would it come from and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:24'>Brenner took the cardboard away and the kid said no look there's more water and Brenda put the cardboard back and the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:29'>kid changed his mind again so if you have any six-year-olds you'd like to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:33'>torment</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:39'>okay what was Brenner exploring who's got a theory yeah</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:47'>visual versus language visual versus symbolic so he said you know there are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:51:56'>at least three ways we have of knowing about the world and probably a lot more</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:01'>how many people here have ever remembered a route better when they were</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:05'>driving the car versus when they were a passenger why huh yeah we have a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:17'>kinesthetic mentality this is the one if</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:21'>you're a musician you know much a lot about this one this is the one that you have to get it this is the one that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:25'>learns how to ride the bike so we have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:29'>that's a completely separate one that's why you can't just watch somebody playing a sport and go out and do it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:35'>it's in a different part of the brain it's in a different set of symbols we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:40'>have a visual mentality one of its great</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:44'>tricks is how many people here now admit it I'll admit it how many people click</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:48'>through channels how many people here have ever clicked</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:53'>into the middle of a movie they haven't seen for 20 years how long did it take</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:52:58'>you to recognize that movie a couple of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:03'>seconds think about that now compared to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:07'>school twenty years ago you were with a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:14'>significant other most likely you did not have your mind on the movie</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:18'>particularly didn't know you're going to be tested 20 years later the test was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:24'>random into the center of the thing and yet within about 50 frames your visual</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:30'>mentality had retrieved that you'd seen it before and about half of the time in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:34'>tests that have been done people remember what's going to happen next think about this in the context of your</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:40'>entire life and think of why there are icons on a user interface if you put</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:47'>pictures of animals up on the wall you can find the elephant four times faster</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:52'>than pic then words for the animals and here's a beautiful one if you put boxes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:53:58'>around the words you can find the word elephant twice as fast then if there</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:54:05'>isn't a box there why</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:54:15'>yeah but basically what happens is the Box icon eise's the word the words are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:54:22'>actually perceived in a different place in your brain then then images that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:54:26'>aren't words see why am I am I telling</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:54:30'>you this stuff because the world is not as it seems right we go from day to day</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:54:37'>from moment to moment thinking that what's out there is reality it isn't all</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:54:43'>it is is interpretations by that three pounds of oatmeal we've got between our</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:54:48'>ears and that three pounds of oatmeal</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:54:52'>can be taught to perceive things any way the culture chooses let's look at</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:54:58'>creativity for a second here we are plotting along in the pink context you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:55:05'>can think of this is a goldfish bowl we're in a goldfish bowl and when</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:55:10'>somebody wants us to do something the best thing we can think of is extrapolation or if going from A to B</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:55:15'>problem solving so it's very hard to be creative when you stay inside the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:55:20'>goldfish bowl moments of creativity happen when something happens oh yeah</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:55:26'>here's a good example is if you take frogs and paralyze their food with a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:55:33'>little chloroform flies the frog will</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:55:37'>not eat them the Frog cannot see flies</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:55:41'>that aren't moving that's incredible but it will try and eat little oblong</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:55:46'>shapes of cardboard that are moving this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:55:51'>cyan't we scientists love this one because we we think of the you know the ideas they're all around us if you think</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:55:56'>of the Flies as I did we just can't see them they're just there all the time we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:02'>can't see my nervous system won't let us do it we're keep on snapping at pieces</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:06'>of cardboard but then something great</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:10'>happens something makes us look at the idea in a different way and bingo we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:16'>have an idea this is why I say terrific ideas usually hide behind good ones good</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:22'>ones are the ones that you get by logic in the same context you're improving</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:26'>something this is what engineers like to do take something it already exists and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:30'>make it better okay you want to get a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:34'>completely new idea you have to have a bingo and this bingo operates in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:39'>different areas so Arthur Kessler said you know if you're telling a joke this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:44'>is a joke isn't it the joke takes you down one path and suddenly reveals</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:48'>you're in another context so if it's a joke you laugh out loud and sometimes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:52'>you do in science as well science it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:56:56'>in humorous ha-ha and science it's a ha and an art it's aa because each one of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:57:02'>these things is designed and is set up to take you from the context you're in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:57:07'>to another context you ever thought of having art classes at Wells Fargo ever</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:57:14'>thought of having art classes for your kids in school after prop 13 ever wonder</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:57:20'>why people are dull and boring</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:57:32'>yeah aha that's the whole point of this talk so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:57:39'>if we look at Kessler's way of looking at things general education is incredibly important all that stuff that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:57:45'>is non pragmatic is actually what we need to be creative the reason is that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:57:50'>if we know lots of things and we're sort of meandering our way in the pink</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:57:56'>context where I can we usually are just our subconscious mind makes little</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:01'>ripples into these other things that we know it's like a little ripple into the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:06'>blue context for a second and then flashing back out because the the pink context said oh no that's not what we're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:11'>talking about so these little distractions that are going on people</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:15'>who are good creative thinkers know how to make those distractions appear they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:21'>get them out of their subconscious and can make them explode into these ideas</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:26'>the more you know the more context you have to change from the way you're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:34'>thinking into some new way here's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:38'>another problem I love frogs they're just the best example we probably all of us had front</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:44'>have frog blood in us there's another thing you can do with a frog you can put</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:50'>it in a pot of water and turn on the heat really low and that frogs nervous</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:58:55'>system is not set up to detect absolute temperature so it will never climb out</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:59:00'>of the pot you'll just sit there and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:59:04'>gradually boil now the Frog the previous frog with the Flies I think of as</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:59:09'>science this one I think of his business [Laughter]</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:59:18'>let's be really careful and deliberate</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:59:22'>and we'll really think this out and meanwhile okay here's for about a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:59:33'>hundred thousand years ago here are some hand axes so here's here's one of the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:59:42'>earliest tools that humans used you notice it has a flaw in the design when</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:59:48'>you pound on it this goes into your palm you pound on it it pounds back into your</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:59:54'>palm and later on they made an improvement is they flattened out this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='00:59:58'>part so when you pound on it it wouldn't pound back into your palm and the thing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:03'>I like especially about this is that the interval of time between the picture on</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:07'>the left and the picture on the right is about two hundred thousand years you can</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:13'>imagine every once in a while somebody in a village would say you know if we just flattened this thing off and they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:18'>take this guy and burn him at the stake going against tradition the way it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:26'>always been done against reality because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:32'>the problem is that every time somebody does something like this they're actually violating somebody else's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:36'>notion of reality that is why people hang on so much they're willing to do almost anything rather than be pulled</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:42'>out of what they're comfortable with so basically what we are today are cave</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:48'>people with briefcases</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:53'>we're the same genetically as we were a hundred thousand years ago but instead</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:00:59'>of being able to learn our culture by age 7 or 8 and then committing to it for</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:01:04'>the rest of our life we actually have major changes every three or four years</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:01:08'>this is what is screwing us up and when</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:01:12'>a crisis comes along how do we do it we use our guts one of my favorite things</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:01:18'>in the paper a couple of days ago in the New York Times maybe you saw in the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:01:22'>business section it said the Fed uses</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:01:27'>its instinct to set the the interest</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:01:31'>rate they said we use our instinct to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:01:35'>set the ants they're talking about an economy with millions and millions of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:01:39'>different parts and they're trying to use their instinct yeah this is like</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:01:45'>voodoo another one I saw today and the USA</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:01:50'>Today was good there was a spokesman from the tobacco Institute saying they</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:01:54'>did a survey that showed that many more people in America knew that cigarette</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:01:59'>smoking was dangerous to their health than new who gave the Sermon on the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:02:03'>Mount it's only one in three knew it was Jesus that gave the Sermon on the Mount</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:02:07'>but 80 percent of the people in America and almost everybody who smoked knew it</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:02:12'>was dangerous so why don't they quit my</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:02:16'>cardiologist I talked to a couple of months ago said 300,000 Americans will</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:02:21'>die this year from cardiovascular</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:02:26'>disease that was easily preventable by just changing that we're told by their</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:02:30'>doctors that all I had to do is change their diet and exercise patterns why not</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:02:34'>they quit the reason is our nervous system is not set up to be interested in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:02:39'>long-term events it's set up to be wary of saber-tooth Tigers we love short</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:02:44'>quick remember Jessica McClure little girl in the well in Texas 58 hours she</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:02:51'>was in there and many Americans watch that almost continuously see what happened during those 58 hours a hundred</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:02:56'>and five thousand children in the world died from preventable causes every year</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:03:03'>in 94 in 93 there's a holocaust worth of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:03:09'>children dying from preventable causes 10 million dying from starvation and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:03:14'>dehydration and so forth we can't even deal with it we can't imagine it and so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:03:19'>we fastened on to one little girl in a well who wasn't even hurt right this is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:03:24'>nuts this is not sane</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:03:33'>our mind is tiny we look at an epidemic</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:03:37'>when it's starting off through a little</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:03:41'>keyhole you see nothing that's what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:03:46'>happened when aids was announced every scientist in this country knew that if</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:03:52'>you have a disease that is contagious</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:03:56'>fatal and you don't have a cure you have one of these guys but nobody could see</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:04:02'>it and so nobody did anything you know many people are going to die in Africa</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:04:06'>in the next 12 years 35 million young</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:04:10'>Vinney in the Pacific Rim 42 million according to the World Health</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:04:14'>Organization they're politicians still don't get it because nobody is dying</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:04:19'>like that now we can't use our common</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:04:24'>sense to deal with the complexity of the world that are in today we have to use</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:04:29'>something beyond common sense we have to use symbolic models of the world because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:04:35'>we have to do something before we just walk off the cliff so the whole whole</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:04:40'>problem that I'm talking about here has</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:04:44'>to do with dealing with things that are more complex than our common sense was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:04:50'>set up for problem solving which is what these teach in school is a terrible way</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:04:55'>of getting ahead mosquitoes solve it with DDT wind up with more</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:05:00'>mosquitoes because you're not just working with mosquitoes you're working</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:05:04'>with an ecology the DDT kills the fish mosquitoes breed faster than the fish</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:05:09'>the mosquitoes breed resistant strains faster than the fish you wind up with</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:05:13'>less fish and they were eating most of the larvae of the mosquitoes and all of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:05:17'>a sudden you have more mosquitoes and the DDT doesn't work anymore this is what happens time after time because the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:05:23'>truth is is that we're involved in very complex systems and you should be aware</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:05:27'>of this I'm sure being in the banking business it's nonlinear it's not</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:05:33'>something that you can sit and turn a couple of dots and know what's going to happen like the Fed tries to do with the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:05:38'>economy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:05:42'>quality doesn't work three recent winners of the Baldrige award General</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:05:47'>Motors IBM and Dec why does equality</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:05:53'>work because the only way you can get Six Sigma good at something is to have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:05:58'>done it for a long time and in this high-tech world that means you're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:06:02'>obsolete long before you ever get there Bill Gates doesn't want Microsoft to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:06:07'>ever get Six Sigma good at what they do that's not the thing what you have to be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:06:12'>is be fitted to the times as they are not getting really you can only get</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:06:18'>really great at something if it's not going to change on you so total quality management is a farce</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:06:23'>in high tech arenas so coming back you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:06:29'>have to look at McLuhan again I don't know who discovered water but it wasn't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:06:33'>a fish we have to try and make that work for us this time I'm going to actually</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:06:43'>going to skip over the video and just go to this so the trick behind this stuff</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:06:49'>is you can only learn to see when you realize you're blind you have to admit</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:06:54'>it this is what scientists do in order</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:06:58'>to deal with science you have to ignore what your hands tell you about touching</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:07:03'>things what your eyes tell you about the world and you have to try and dig deeper</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:07:08'>than what your senses and common sense are telling you it is really hard to do</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:07:15'>so one of things you can do is you can make a better goldfish ball this is what Wells Fargo should do difference between</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:07:23'>four hundred years ago coming out of the Middle Ages and the Renaissance and now</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:07:28'>is that we're now self-conscious about these goldfish bowls and we can</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:07:32'>structure them when you do something like an programming language you're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:07:37'>making a goldfish bowl for people it's a paradigm it's a collection of beliefs</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:07:42'>it's a way of doing things these things are incredibly powerful because of the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:07:47'>way our minds work we can't change the way our minds work in any direct way but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:07:51'>we can change the context in which they do work</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:07:55'>we see what we know if you take most</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:07:59'>people who did it drawing like this would be thrown out of art class in fact</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:08:04'>this person was this is what they did after just a couple of months later a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:08:09'>self-portrait of themselves and this is another portrait done by the person who</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:08:16'>did this picture on the top after about three months in fact you can become an</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:08:23'>incredibly good artist in almost any area in just a few months our ability to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:08:30'>learn things is much much greater than we think in fact most people are more ignorant</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:08:38'>most people think of themselves as stupid but they're actually smarter than</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:08:42'>they think they are the problem is that most people know less than they think</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:08:46'>they do all right so we're constrained much more by what we know about the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:08:51'>world than what our latent abilities are we can make these multiple mentalities</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:08:56'>which are always fighting each other work for us for instance this is this is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:09:01'>sorry this is almost illegible but this is a coherent essay a page long done by</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:09:10'>a five-year-old and she'd only been writing for about three months three or</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:09:17'>four months of course second and third graders often don't write very coherent</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:09:23'>essays so how do how did the teacher get her to write this coherent essays well</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:09:27'>it happens that children especially can't sequence symbolically the symbolic</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:09:32'>part of their mind isn't set up for sequencing but they can do really good</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:09:37'>sequencing iconically so what the teacher had the child do is to draw a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:09:41'>movie of the story she had in mind all children even we've tested children down</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:09:47'>to the age of even three and a half and four can draw a coherent storyboards try</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:09:53'>this with your children you'll also notice something really</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:09:57'>strange and wonderful when they're drawing the storyboard they can draw better than when they draw a regular</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:10:03'>drawing there's something about the focusing of it we still don't understand</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:10:07'>then having done a coherent story board</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:10:11'>over there the teacher then says write one or two sentences about each of the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:10:15'>panels and when the child does that they get a coherent essay that has a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:10:19'>beginning middle and end now is that cheating is it I don't think so I mean</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:10:27'>if that's cheating calculus is cheating right the whole idea is we have to cheat</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:10:32'>we're not smart enough not to get by</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:10:36'>without finding these scaffolds we can</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:10:40'>work our buns off in the wrong context</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:10:48'>well three mentalities how about a way of grabbing things for user-interface</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:10:55'>how about a way of using our ability to remember things in terms of images and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:11:00'>how about a way of dealing with symbolic renderings of those things and if you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:11:05'>put those together you get this machine in this interface</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:11:10'>that's how it came about we took a psychological model about the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:11:14'>way people actually seem to think spend a couple of years trying to understand</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:11:18'>it in the terms of communication between human and machine and came up with a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:11:23'>much better way of doing a user interface so the whole point here is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:11:29'>that by changing the context in which</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:11:35'>you're in which you're thinking about things you can change the results not in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:11:40'>quantitative ways but in qualitative ways so the strongest weapon that you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:11:44'>have for exploring the future is the one</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:11:48'>between your ears providing it's loaded thank you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:12:05'>okay now we have time for some some questions</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:12:11'>and I love to answer questions so please</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:12:18'>don't be shy yes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:12:36'>well I think I think everybody heard that didn't they basically is saying</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:12:42'>from experiences that I've had being on</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:12:47'>advisory boards and so forth and talking to large companies what mistakes do</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:12:52'>people make well mistake is the wrong word because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:12:56'>the it's very it's quite rare for companies to actually make mistakes what</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:13:05'>they do is to do things perfectly logically in the wrong place right and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:13:10'>those aren't really mistakes they're ill-chosen paths so the one of the major</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:13:15'>things that companies don't do is to even look at this country as a model</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:13:22'>this country doesn't have zillions of rules compared to say Germany it has a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:13:28'>constitution the constitution is kind of the DNA and it's designed to provide</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:13:35'>maximum diversity and still allow us to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:13:41'>argue with each other right science what happened when science was invented is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:13:46'>people basically started saying this is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:13:50'>coming out of the 15th and 16th centuries was saying when Galileo's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:13:56'>telescope showed the four moons of Jupiter orbiting around a center in the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:14:02'>heavens that wasn't the earth it toppled the church's cosmology because this was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:14:09'>dogma right this was actually the Word of God that there was only one Center of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:14:18'>motion in the universe and that was the earth so that was devastating basically</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:14:22'>the the conclusion that people came from that is we can't get involved in dogma</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:14:26'>if we're going to get ahead the problem is if you don't get involved in dogma</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:14:30'>how can you do anything all right isn't everybody's opinion the same right so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:14:35'>this is misplaced democracy everybody's opinion is say no everybody's opinion</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:14:39'>isn't the same so how do you resolve that the way he resolved it is setting up a system for argument science is a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:14:45'>system for argument as Richard Feynman likes to say science means you don't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:14:49'>have to trust the experts right because there's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:14:53'>no scientific claim that you can't test you don't have to believe anybody but if</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:15:00'>you want to play in science you have to be tough on the argument so what most</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:15:05'>companies don't do is to set up a situation where they can argue well most</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:15:10'>companies are terrible at arguing because they take arguing personally</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:15:15'>right and that is no case and so what you get is party lines and dogma and all</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:15:20'>that the paraphernalia of the past what you need to do is to have a way of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:15:24'>separating out personalities from the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:15:28'>fact that there are very difficult issues that need to be feared long and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:15:32'>hard and they have to be taken down to the essence or else you're just going to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:15:36'>get another wave another five year plan like the Russians used to do yielding</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:15:41'>nothing because they refuse to look at the basis of Marxism and ask whether</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:15:45'>there was anything there or not right so I think the thing is is to try and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:15:49'>convert from a dogmatic hierarchical system because if you think about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:15:54'>American businesses are distressingly undemocratic fact I think of them as</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:16:00'>being like hunting and gathering societies as compared to agriculture my</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:16:07'>American businesses try to put their competitors out of business</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:16:11'>whereas farmers never do why because a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:16:15'>farmer needs all the other farmers to come help him build his barn so farmers</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:16:19'>do limited competition on Saturdays they go out and help each other on Tuesdays</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:16:24'>and they spend the rest of the time trying to get their farm going a lot so a lot of agricultural metaphors have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:16:29'>never come into business in any strong way one of the ones I used at lunch is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:16:33'>an agriculture you need to let your fields even in the Bible it says let</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:16:37'>your fields lie fallow one year and seven that means you're giving up 14</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:16:42'>percent of your return in order to be there 20 years from now right that's a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:16:47'>research budget 14 percent that's what it means American businesses can't</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:16:53'>understand they're always top soil stripping and what do you get when you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:16:57'>topsoil strip you get a Dust Bowl and that is what we have got</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:17:01'>so the only way these changes can happen is if the reward system has to be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:17:06'>changed by the top-most management to</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:17:11'>investing some part in the future in a serious way not in a token nice way and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:17:18'>to I believe that people will not change unless there is some reward for failure</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:17:25'>tell you a funny story I was I gave a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:17:29'>talk at the Stanford 25th anniversary of computer science and there 75 Silicon</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:17:35'>Valley companies in the room and I was talking about told the story at Xerox</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:17:43'>PARC when I when I first did the overlapping window interface I use a demo up to various Xerox executives and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:17:49'>one guy I went shoe and showed how the windows came up and this is so much</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:17:54'>easier and expands the effective area of the display and this and that blah blah</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:18:00'>blah and at the end as I said what's really great about this stuff is it only has a 20% chance of success we're taking</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:18:06'>risk just like you asked us to he looked at me and he said boy that's great but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:18:11'>just make sure it works right the American businessman is idea</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:18:16'>of risk being that 20 percent 100 percent of the time but it isn't it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:18:23'>like baseball Ty Cobb's lifetime batting average was 367 two out of three times</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:18:29'>he made out right they have to invest</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:18:33'>when you're doing things that involve some risk it's not possible to hit a baseball perfectly every time it's a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:18:38'>very hard thing to do it's not possible to be right every time but the thing is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:18:42'>you can assure yourself of being wrong every time if you don't do the investment because then you just wind up</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:18:47'>with a dust ball another question yes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:18:54'>first of all I was really delighted to hear you talk about Doug Engelbart oh</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:18:58'>yeah me too trite but I'm a fan one of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:19:02'>the things that he's recently been working on is what he calls</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:19:06'>bootstrapping corporations into the 21st century yeah and you touched on this you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:19:12'>talked about how businesses can improve themselves and one of the things he was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:19:17'>trying to get across without a key to the long-term vitality of an</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:19:22'>organization is to get better and better at improving itself and I was curious</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:19:27'>what you thought about his concept of for example most Fargo being a bank</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:19:33'>naturally keeps things very private from</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:19:37'>Bank of America and other competitors one of the engl Barts positions is that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:19:43'>we should actually be collaborating with one another yeah to improve the process</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:19:47'>for everyone so I'd like to hear your thoughts on them yeah well the trick there of course our antitrust laws</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:19:56'>so we have a harder time doing caresses than the Japanese do but basically I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:20:04'>mean here is a really you can throw tomatoes if you want but I mean the the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:20:09'>crudest statement I can think of is that in science you want to help your buddy</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:20:13'>your competitor because there was a way</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:20:17'>of doing it and getting credit for it namely they they get really shat on if</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:20:24'>they don't put your name as a source of this part of the idea so in science you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:20:29'>tell everybody everything and there's a way of not losing in the reward system</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:20:34'>and science has been one of the fastest</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:20:38'>growing things in business the idea is let's screw our buddies because</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:20:45'>especially in the short term when we're measuring in the short term we can always see little ways of cheating in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:20:51'>order to make the short term better and if there's no long term theory then I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:20:56'>think there's a there's a super problem I mean the truth is the companies do</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:21:01'>collaborate by for instance sending people to standards committees of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:21:05'>various kinds there's a whole layer of company Apple is involved in quite a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:21:11'>number of consortiums there are 50 and 60 companies big and they include people</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:21:18'>that are competitors of each other but for instance everybody knows that unless</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:21:22'>we get network standards worked out in a reasonable way and we have a theory of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:21:27'>object protocols that work out where it's actually going to hold things up for another decade and so there's this</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:21:33'>whole thing about how can we get the state-of-the-art stuff here and not just</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:21:37'>try and beat everybody else to market but have some ecological theory now</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:21:42'>angle Bart by the way invented the term</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:21:46'>bootstrapping and invented it back in the 60s and he was giving that talk back</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:21:52'>when I first met him which is a 1966 so he's been constantly trying to do</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:21:57'>this and he it's a similar talk affects some of the parts of my talk I've adapted from his great old talk that he</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:22:02'>used to to give about these we improve ourselves by improving our tools and the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:22:08'>tools McLuhan like to say we shape the tools and then the tools come around and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:22:13'>reshape us so you have to be very careful about the tools that we make and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:22:17'>how they reshape us know that yes Ian's standards and I was working in</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:22:23'>marketplace that you have standards and you also want empower the individual to do their own thing how do you see that</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:22:28'>balance being able to give a person freedom but also want to have standards</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:22:32'>so everybody can move quickly it sounds like it's different directions but we have to find out it's that's that's a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:22:38'>really good question and it goes back to the Constitution idea I I was one of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:22:44'>about 20 people who worked on the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:22:48'>ARPANET 20 30 people who worked on the ARPANET and it's the thing that became</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:22:53'>the Internet and one of the things we problems we had back then was the ARPA</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:22:58'>projects had different computers he networks basically and heterogeneous</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:23:02'>computer that's just shafted that way</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:23:07'>you're going to get different mixes and so you have to sort of face up to it and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:23:11'>that was in 1968 it was just when I was starting to design OOP systems and I</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:23:16'>realized that objects by their very nature of having a separate inside and</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:23:21'>an outside we're perfect to go from different machines a different machine they could even carry different code</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:23:26'>along with them and nobody was the wiser they could carry an interpreter with</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:23:31'>them like PostScript does in case there isn't something that knows how to compile them and so when you think about</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:23:36'>it just the notion of an object or the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:23:40'>notion of a cell think of how many different cell types we have they all run from the same DNA right so the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:23:46'>compatibility is done by not allowing gratuitous information outside of the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:23:53'>cell right so if you send objects around so people can be infinitely they can do</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:23:58'>anything they want put it inside of an object and as long as the object can be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:24:03'>recognized by various protocols and api's that object can run on a wide</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:24:07'>variety of different machines and still be completely idiosyncratic to what the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:24:12'>creative person wants to do so you can think of that as you know it's a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:24:16'>biological most of the answers I have to questions like that came out of I used</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:24:20'>to be a molecular biologist a long time ago and thing you have to realize is a</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:24:24'>biology is so much more complicated than anything computer people do it's by you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:24:30'>know tens of orders of man for instance a bacteriological cell which we have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:24:35'>lots in our but our body is about a hundred gigabytes worth of information</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:24:39'>processing machinery and the processing</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:24:44'>pattern matches are done in in sub microsecond speed all right so you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:24:49'>happen it's just so typical one of those things is like fifty thousand four</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:24:54'>megabyte despot desktop computers that's one bacterium one bacterium is one five</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:25:00'>hundredth the size of a typical cell in our body right we have ten trillion</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:25:07'>cells in our body now the thing you have</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:25:11'>to realize is that what's happening in our body is hundreds and hundreds of</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:25:16'>thousands even millions of cells are dying every day</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:25:21'>do everybody know that the atoms in our</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:25:25'>body don't last for more than seven years even in our bones they're replaced</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:25:30'>so we humans biological organisms are patterns moving through time and space</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:25:36'>material comes into us and it goes out of us the pattern stays behind right so</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:25:42'>there's a constant dynamic organization now why are we still alive the answer is</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:25:46'>that more things are going right with us and are going wrong compare that to your</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:25:52'>COBOL program where one line of code now let's see it wasn't well as far go but</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:25:57'>what Bank was at Chemical Bank one line</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:26:01'>of C code right and all of a sudden</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:26:05'>people were having every time they took something out it was twice as much as</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:26:10'>taken out how can you do that come on we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:26:15'>shouldn't you think of that kind of stuff as I mean if you're gonna use transaction systems can't you imagine</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:26:20'>transactions at the code level like it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:26:24'>like do you really want to program in a procedural language when you should be</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:26:28'>programming in terms of constraints that's the way you do that when you do</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:26:33'>that you wind up with something that's like a biological it's tolerant of error because the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:26:39'>constraints are gonna make the overall system get to the goal anyway so it's</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:26:43'>like all biological systems when they're following a light they don't get perfect</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:26:47'>information back and they're not doing things perfectly but the feedback mechanism will get them to the goal</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:26:51'>that's the way we should be programming another question yes who makes it yeah</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:27:06'>actually I always throw that in I thought you know I've all my</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:27:11'>professional career starting from 1968 I've worked with children the Mac was</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:27:16'>designed for children not for adults in fact some of the drawbacks in the user</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:27:21'>interface are because of that fact we</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:27:25'>did that interface so we could teach children some very complicated things and the to me the because of the way our</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:27:33'>minds work because as humans we're</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:27:37'>inescapably drawn and thank goodness in a way to learn our culture think of the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:27:44'>an arc think if we weren't social they'll be frightening</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:27:49'>so we're drawn to learn a big set of beliefs and if we want to change those</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:27:56'>beliefs it's much easier to change them in children than in adults and so I you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:28:02'>know I'm sort of the opposite the Roman Catholic Church and you know I want to save the children first and they are the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:28:09'>ones that I can't find any way of blaming them when something is going wrong with them whereas adults I can</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:28:14'>find infinite lists of things to blame adults for they should know better etc</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:28:18'>etc but for children good grief so the</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:28:22'>answer is you just keep on throwing this stuff I think the Chinese water torture</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:28:26'>treatment is you just kept people to keep on trying to notice the things are</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:28:30'>infinitely more complex than television can ever portray and once people start</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:28:35'>thinking in terms other than in television where you're dealing with</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:28:39'>individuals and start thinking in these larger abstract terms that's that's when</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:28:43'>things start happening anybody can save one child the most</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:28:48'>important thing is to realize that if you save one child and somebody else say is another child</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:28:53'>and all the children will be saved yes</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='01:28:58'>time to quit I would love to stop on that note okay matter of fact thank you</subtitle>
+<subtitle id='5343'>very much [Applause] </subtitle>