View source for Alan Kay Talk at Virtual Heidelberg Laureate Forum 2020

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<subtitle id="0:0:38">okay it's</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:0:41"> my pleasure to introduce the next speaker of this</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:0:44">morning whatever depending on your</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:0:47"> time zone it's allen k recipient</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:0:50"> of the acm am touring award in 2003</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:0:54"> for i quote pioneering many of</subtitle>
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<subtitle id="0:1:48"></subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:1:51"></subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:1:53">screen and go to full screen on slides</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:1:56"> and in the upper right hand corner</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:1:59"> is a place for your technicians to put</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:2:2">hey will</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:2:5"> see what it is i hope</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:2:8">did the technicians get this</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:2:17">yes</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:2:20"> they did and andreas</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:2:23"> we're going to have to you're going to be in the way of the slide</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:2:26"> so if the technicians will they can take me out</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:2:29"> i'll be happy yes well</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:2:32">they yes okay</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:2:35"> there we go</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:2:38"> and okay</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:2:41"> um hello everybody</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:2:44"> uh i have a simpler bio than</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:2:47"> the the one that they</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:2:50"> gave you which</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:2:53"> is just that no</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:2:56">his research community than i do</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:2:59"> and that of course</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:3:2"> was the arpa</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:3:5"> information processing techniques office</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:3:8"> uh in the 60s and</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:3:11"> then xerox park which was an outgrowth of it</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:3:14"> in the 70s</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:3:17">and so the simplest</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:3:20"> uh piece of advice</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:3:23"> i can give anybody unless</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:3:26"> you're truly de novo</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:3:29"> is just find a good research community</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:3:32">ours</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:3:35"> benefited tremendously from</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:3:38"> this slogan the goodness of the results correlates</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:3:41"> most strongly with the goodness of the funders</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:3:44"> we had i think the greatest</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:3:47"> funders that computer science research has ever</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:3:50"> had and so</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:3:53"> much of what</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:3:56"> we did and</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:4:2">that is idiosyncratic to</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:4:5"> that particular research community and those</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:4:8"> funders so i'm not going to</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:4:11"> cover that today i've given longer talks trying to</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:4:14">explain this research community today i thought i'd</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:4:17">are maybe more generally applicable</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:4:20"> and that would lead as quickly as</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:4:23"> possible into our question and answer</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:4:29">the direction of this talk from</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:4:32">questions that uh</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:4:35"> some of the junior researchers</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:4:38"> emailed me over the last week so</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:4:41">you to them and some of them will</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:4:44"> see some of their questions answered</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:4:47">the whole talk is really</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:4:50"> about pondering i've divided into two parts</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:4:53"> the first one</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:4:56"> is just dealing with</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:4:59"> the tyranny of</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:5:2"> the present or the tyranny of normal</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:5:5"> and this is an idea from arthur</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:5:8"> kessler book</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:5:11"> act of creation</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:5:14"> and he says imagine our</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:5:17"> mind as being</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:5:20"> like a flat plane and our thought processes as being</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:5:23"> like an ant and the</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:5:26"> ant doesn't know it's pink</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:5:29"> because it's the only uh color that</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:5:32">ever seen it can wander around it can do</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:5:35"> all kinds of things it can find obstacles it can problem</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:5:38"> solve uh</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:5:41"> and every once in a while it will</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:5:44"> have an outlaw idea</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:5:47"> maybe in an unguarded moment</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:5:50"> but the aunt has been to church</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:5:53">gone to school the aunt has</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:5:56"> tried to get funding from a government funding agency</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:5:59"> and so there's a big ker splat</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:6:2"> that wipes out that little outlaw</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:6:5"> idea get back into the pink there</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:6:8"> but maybe the ant is taking</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:6:11"> a shower just waking up and all of a sudden</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:6:14">this</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:6:17"> outlaw idea gets much much bigger</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:6:20"> it's a kerpal and</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:6:23"> when one of those gets big enough</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:6:26">makes you see oh here's a blue</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:6:29"> plane i didn't know that</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:6:32"> my thinking could be more than two-dimensional</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:6:35"> but here's a whole other world i didn't even know about</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:6:38"> maybe i'll start exploring that and</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:6:41">course once you found</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:6:44"> a an exception</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:6:47"> to the world</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:6:50"> that you thought was normal you realize oh there's</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:6:53"> lots of them everywhere</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:6:56"> there is there's a possibility escaping</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:6:59">and getting into a different set of thought processes</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:7:2"> so the slogan i made up for this many years</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:7:5"> ago is point of view is worth</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:7:8"> 80 iq points often</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:7:11">you are the context that you're</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:7:14"> in uh that makes the difference</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:7:17"> and certainly we</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:7:20"> in our era are in</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:7:23"> a context that was laid in the 17th century with</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:7:26">invention of science a lot of</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:7:29"> what we do depended on what happened then and</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:7:32">years or so earlier like</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:7:35"> leonardo was we would lack the context</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:7:38"> to do anything with ideas like he had</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:7:41"> another way of looking at it is from marshall</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:7:44"> mcluhan i don't know who discovered water but it wasn't a fish</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:7:47"> the ant doesn't know that it's</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:7:50"> in a pink plain because it's only ever seen pink</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:7:53"> and a question for you to ponder</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:7:56"> while i go on with the talk if</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:7:59"> the pink normal is sanity</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:8:2"> because we equate normal with sanity</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:8:5"> what then is a blue thought or a green thought</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:8:8"> okay here's another way</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:8:11"> to look at it uh from the</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:8:17">generally in school we're at</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:8:20">given a problem b we're supposed to</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:8:23"> go towards it and be successful most</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:8:26"> of the time but</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:8:29">in fact lots</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:8:32"> of real problems also</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:8:35"> exist in more dimensions</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:8:38"> than school problems or most problems</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:8:41">eem to be so in the ant here doesn't</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:8:44"> can feel gravity</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:8:47">can feel things are getting more difficult</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:8:50"> but just feels the difficulty</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:8:53">ant has been taught well</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:8:56"> then it will just keep on trying</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:8:59">it will hold on</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:9:2"> to this particular goal in this particular way to get to</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:9:5">kay here's a</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:9:8"> guy in africa he wants to</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:9:11"> catch a baboon</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:9:14">so he pokes a hole in a termite</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:9:17"> nest here</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:9:20"> here's a young baboon</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:9:23">him do it wondering what's going on because he's curious</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:9:26"> like all us primates are</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:9:29">and the hunter</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:9:32"> puts some seeds in the hole</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:9:35"> and just goes off to the side</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:9:38"> the young baboon is thinking about this</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:9:44">curious</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:9:47"></subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:9:50"> curious</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:9:53"> better go take a look</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:9:56">i can smell</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:9:59"> oh seeds</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:10:2">grab onto those seeds</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:10:5">whoops he's stuck could just let go</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:10:8"> of the seeds but he won't let go the seeds</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:10:11"> he's a primate just like us</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:10:14"> he will just hold on to those seeds until</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:10:17"> a guy comes up and catches him</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:10:26">now this is a cognitive</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:10:32">that is called a loss aversion</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:10:35">it's one of several hundreds of cognitive biases</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:10:38"> that we have this is one we share with</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:10:41">primates this is also how they catch monkeys</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:10:44"> in burma and</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:10:47"> i won't tell you the rest of the story you can find this</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:10:50"> video on youtube uh but i will tell you</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:10:53">hunter does not kill or hurt</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:10:56"> the baboon the reason he caught the baboon was for a completely</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:10:59">different purpose which you'll find interesting</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:11:5">okay but what if we didn't have laws</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:11:8">aversion but one thing explorers</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:11:11"> know they have a heuristic that says boy if things are really getting</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:11:14"> tough we should at least explore around</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:11:17">the hill and the and the gully</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:11:20"> there aren't everywhere</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:11:23">and so we might have to take a longer route around</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:11:26"> but actually we'll get to be faster</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:11:29"> we'll just have to travel a longer distance</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:11:32">and in fact</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:11:35"> away from this goal we might even find a super</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:11:38"> highway one of the super highways we use</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:11:41"> today is called science</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:11:44"> science get off to</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:11:47">can go much much faster</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:11:50"> and in this case you travel longer but you get</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:11:53"> to be much much quicker</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:11:56">but</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:11:59">you could also use</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:12:2"> science to boost engineering and invent an</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:12:5"> airplane and just fly over the whole thing</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:12:8"> that takes a little time but now we've</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:12:11">got something that's generally useful</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:12:14"> and even better once we started</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:12:17"> thinking in this way we might find</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:12:20"> one of these blue planes</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:12:23"> and on the blue plane we might find</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:12:26"> a goal c that is much much better than b</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:12:29"> was and in fact if you think</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:12:32"> about it this is</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:12:35"> a key</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:12:38">to even thinking about your own schooling if you</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:12:41"> went to college trying to</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:12:44"> get to b and college showed you so</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:12:47"> much that you came out with a c that you</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:12:50"> never knew existed before the college has done its</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:12:53">job otherwise it's only</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:12:56"> helped you on your own goals it hasn't helped you expand</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:13:2">now here's a a barn that burned</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:13:5"> down one that burned down in the 17th</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:13:8"> century inspired a japanese</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:13:11"> poet to say oh the barn burned down but now</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:13:17">the moon was more rewarding to him</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:13:20"> than his barn</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:13:23"> that gives us a way to think about</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:13:26"> how do we think about ideas do we think of</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:13:29"> them like matter</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:13:32">they are separate things they collide with each</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:13:35"> other like words or categories that have hard boundaries</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:13:38"> or do we think of them like radiation</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:13:41"> or light or processes or relationships</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:13:44"> and these superpose</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:13:47"> so it can shine all of them on the wall at the</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:13:50"> same time and we can</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:13:53">there we can see interesting combinations</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:13:56">other they might not</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:13:59"> be compatible directly but by</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:14:2"> not fighting each other we can get some ideas</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:14:5"> about what we can do with them</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:14:8">and guess what the the moon might actually</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:14:11"> have been hiding all the time behind our categories</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:14:14"> but in fact in</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:14:17"> the radiation idea of ideas we can find</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:14:20"> the moon and of course in</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:14:23"> california we like t-shirts</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:14:26">o this is a good t-shirt for researchers and</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:14:29"> other curious people</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:14:32"> and again these categories</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:14:35">have this sense of reality</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:14:38">they're so well defined</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:14:41"> they're so uh set up they've</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:14:44"> been used so often that they actually can get</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:14:47"> in the way about thinking about things</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:14:50"> well here's uh kessler's book</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:14:53"> act of creation written in the mid 60s</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:14:56"> it has many wonderful ideas not</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:14:59"> just this two planes intersecting</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:15:2"> he has a whole theory of creativity</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:15:5"> and humor and science</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:15:8"> and many other interesting things he was</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:15:11"> a very famous writer who later in his life turned</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:15:14"> his hand to the behavioral sciences</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:15:17"> and a more recent book</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:15:20"> which has many things</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:15:23"> to do with the way human brains actually work</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:15:26"> by kahneman who won the nobel</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:15:29">economics also</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:15:32"> with his partner tversky</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:15:35"> uh coined the term cognitive bias</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:15:38"> and i uh</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:15:41"> if you look at the wikipedia article on cognitive biases</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:15:44"> and the cognitive bias codex</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:15:47">find all sorts of interesting things including</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:15:50"> the fact that you'll be able to think of more cognitive</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:15:53"> biases than are listed there we have a</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:15:56">of them now if you think about it if we know what our</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:15:59"> cognitive biases are as human beings</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:16:2"> we should be able to create heuristics</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:16:5"> to deal with them</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:16:8"> think of them as dangers out in the</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:16:11">world we have to make up heuristics to deal with</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:16:14"> these things okay</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:16:17"> the second part of this</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:16:20"> which is really part of the first part</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:16:23"> is that generally</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:16:26"> speaking and certainly</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:16:29"> in my experience almost all the good stuff</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:16:32"> that happened in my research career</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:16:35"> of more than 50 years now</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:16:38"> came from finding problems the problems</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:16:41">that were around the problems</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:16:44">nsf likes computer people to solve</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:16:47"> and so forth are ones that</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:16:50"> can be explained the solutions can be</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:16:53"> explained so they're really more like engineering</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:16:56"> but in this golden age</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:16:59"> of 60s and 70s when a lot of new</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:17:2"> stuff got done a lot of it got done because</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:17:5"> arpa and park were willing to fund researchers</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:17:8"> to poke their noses around</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:17:11">with their own conceptions of the problems</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:17:14"> most worthwhile looking at</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:17:17"> so you can think of it as widening context</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:17:20"> closing your eyes</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:17:23">the perfume that's around</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:17:26"> find the perfume that smells good to you</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:17:29">so</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:17:32"> this context idea is interesting</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:17:35">we still have to explain</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:17:38">people the person is the first word in personal computing</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:17:41"> why do we have to do that because the</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:17:44"> user interfaces they do are so terrible</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:17:47"> so they're much more interested in the computing</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:17:50"> part than the person part but if you think about</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:17:53"> it this is not a great term because</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:17:56"> um humans</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:17:59"> don't exist by themselves</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:18:2"> out of the woods or in a cave</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:18:5"> we most of us view that as punishment</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:18:8">and so what we're what we're actually</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:18:11"> embedded in</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:18:14"> and we can't be human without is from the time</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:18:17"> of birth to be embedded in a</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:18:20"> human culture and that culture</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:18:23"> is where a lot of the</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:18:26">learning and attitudes and worldviews and other kinds of things</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:18:29"> come from if we just pick</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:18:32"> a few things that come out</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:18:35"> of this way we can say well person is</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:18:38">personal computing but in fact in</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:18:41"> a culture we have a duty to our society</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:18:44"> we have a duty to the next generation</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:18:47">it's not just about us</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:18:50"> we have to understand the world views</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:18:56">we have to deal with</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:18:59"> the schooling of the next</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:19:2"> generations and the adults that we have</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:19:5"> today there's this idea of richness</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:19:8"> man does not live</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:19:11"> by bread alone so this</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:19:14"> notion of richness this is a tough one</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:19:17">used to be more embedded in schools than it is now</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:19:20"> it's one of the most important things because</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:19:23"> it deals with things that are outside</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:19:26"> of simple pragmatic</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:19:29"> problems and then there's the</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:19:32"> idea of livelihood</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:19:35">earning a job but it's sort of the least important</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:19:38"> of the six that's around and these</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:19:41"> seven things together are too</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:19:44"> small a number but it just gives you an idea if</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:19:47"> you just pick seven things</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:19:50"> for a context for doing research and computing</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:19:53"> here's seven i picked</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:19:56"> and these are themselves embedded</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:19:59"> in much larger issues</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:20:2"> here are 12 big issues there</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:20:5"> were issues 60 years ago when i started</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:20:8"> their bigger issues today</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:20:11">and</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:20:14"> these issues are actually global</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:20:17"> so they're not tribal</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:20:20"> they're not local cultural</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:20:23"> there affect everybody and</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:20:26"> the global environment is dying</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:20:29">in part because</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:20:32"> many of the people who are the most active</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:20:35"> over the last 150</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:20:38"> years we're not concerned with</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:20:41"> the larger environment</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:20:44">so if you think about a child born</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:20:47">year who is going to be 80</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:20:50">century we wonder well are they even</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:20:53"> going to get there is there any possibility</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:20:56"> 80 years from now</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:20:59"> for that world to be better than the one that we have</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:21:2"> now or is it going to continue this</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:21:5">piral so why do i put</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:21:8">here because this is where</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:21:11"> my community</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:21:14"> in the 60s and 70s took a lot</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:21:17"> of the romance for</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:21:20"> the problems that were chosen they were chosen to deal with</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:21:23"> these large issues not</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:21:26"> just helping engineers</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:21:29">and we can widen this out one more</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:21:32"> level to thinking about humanity</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:21:35"> in general which is recently discovered</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:21:38">a planet many people don't really get that</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:21:41">a hundred years</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:21:45"> ago the</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:21:48"></subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:21:51"></subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:21:54"></subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:21:57"></subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:22:0"></subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:22:2">in communication with each other and our technological infrastructure</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:22:5"> this is a self-portrait of the internet</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:22:8"> uh is enormous and also</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:22:11"> large</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:22:14"> our bodies are very</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:22:17"> complex systems and our brains are even</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:22:20"> more complex so if you look at these we've got</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:22:23">his idea</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:22:26"> of i hope what what that caption</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:22:29"> says there it's blocked on my screen</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:22:32"> it says uh the systems</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:22:35"> we uh live in and the systems</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:22:38"> we are so we have this context</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:22:41"> with which to get these new</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:22:47">and they are connected</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:22:50"> so it's not just just that each one of them is a non-linear</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:22:53"> complex system the whole thing is very</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:22:56"> complicated for most people still these</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:22:59"> are invisible they're not taught</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:23:5">now we can get to this</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:23:8"> much larger view of science which by the way has its 400th</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:23:11"> anniversary this year from francis</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:23:14"> bacon he defined</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:23:17">science that we need is that we</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:23:20"> need to have methods to get around with what's wrong with our</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:23:23"> brains</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:23:26">and we will learn</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:23:29">thereby this is in a book called</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:23:32"> the novum organum scientia you</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:23:35"> can look it up</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:23:38"> so science is about 400 years old</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:23:41">ating from this bacon idea</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:23:44"> systems are less than 100 years</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:23:47"> old and not</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:23:50"> even taught in most k-12</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:23:53"> curricula</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:23:56"> couple of quotes from einstein</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:23:59"> we cannot solve our problems with the same levels</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:24:2"> of thinking that we use to create them</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:24:5"> it says don't stay the big plane has</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:24:8"> more or less ruined the planet you've got to find</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:24:11"> a blue plane or a green plane that</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:24:14"> has stronger thinking methods including</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:24:17"> ways of getting the adult population</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:24:20"> of the world to understand what's going on</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:24:23">and</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:24:26"> insanity is doing the same things over and over and expecting</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:24:29">results that's what's been going on</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:24:32">london watching</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:24:35"> europe and the united states go</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:24:38"> through successive waves of</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:24:41"> a pandemic which as a former biologist</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:24:44">can tell you has nothing interesting or</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:24:47"> new about it from the time</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:24:50"> they started identifying the crucial parameters</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:24:53"> of it a country like new zealand</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:24:56"> went with what it</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:24:59"> actually is and prevented almost</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:25:2">all deaths they've only had 23</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:25:5"> or 24 deaths whereas</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:25:8"> the rest of the world somehow just cannot</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:25:11"> get themselves to deal with</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:25:14">what's actually going on but instead they want to deal</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:25:17">they hope is going on and what</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:25:20"> they hope will happen so this is a tragedy</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:25:26">now in the 60s the arpa community</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:25:29"> was devoted to these</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:25:32"> many of these ideas the climate</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:25:35"> idea by the way goes first big warning</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:25:38"> on the climate was 1963</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:25:41"> by nsf so that was 57</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:25:44"> years ago uh engelbart</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:25:47"> uh</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:25:50"> right here uh</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:25:53"> was a big thinker about this and</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:25:56">known today it's unfortunately just known for</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:25:59"> the mouse which he said hey that's just that's</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:26:2"> just a button on the car radio we invented</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:26:5"> a whole car so that's been a</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:26:8"> real mess and what we're doing right now is absolutely</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:26:11">what they were doing when you see something</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:26:14">like what we're doing now they were actually collaborating</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:26:17"> in groups</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:26:20"> and i can't explain this but</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:26:23"> you can see this demo</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:26:26">idea here though is that</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:26:29"> the demo was the smallest part</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:26:32"> the demo 168 was the smallest part</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:26:35">1962 engelbart</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:26:38"> wrote a huge program</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:26:41"> right before he was funded by arpa</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:26:44"> and a lot of what he did can sort of</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:26:47">up what the whole community was about</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:26:50"> here's the way he thought about</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:26:53"> what you needed to do he said look</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:26:56"> humans definitely use</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:26:59"> tools but the problem</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:27:2"> with the tool the problem with a hammer is it doesn't teach you</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:27:5"> much except you can hammer things</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:27:8">you'll eventually use a nuclear weapon as a hammer</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:27:11"> when you grow up so hammer learning about</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:27:14"> hammering in a context-free way doesn't really</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:27:17">work and</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:27:20"> what happens with this is that</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:27:23"> why ends up building</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:27:26"> rather poor heuristics</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:27:29"> in our minds so the first thing engelbart</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:27:32"> said look we have to have education and training</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:27:35"> the more powerful the agencies</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:27:38"> that humans get to control</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:27:41"> uh the more different we have to make</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:27:44">reactions to them we can do that through</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:27:47"> education and if we do that then we can use</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:27:50">powerful methods that have been invented over</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:27:53"> the last 400 years and we can invent more</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:27:56">and we can come up with stronger and stronger ways</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:27:59"> to represent our ideas especially now</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:28:2">the computer so to him this</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:28:5"> quintuple here</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:28:8"> was one augmentation unit the</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:28:11"> human merged with these four</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:28:14"> things and then the idea is</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:28:17">humans do that really count are</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:28:20"> done in groups so what we want to do</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:28:23"> is make groups of these augmented</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:28:26"> human beings where the group itself</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:28:29"> is augmented in a similar way so</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:28:32"> that is a really big idea uh</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:28:35"> doug was in despair</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:28:38"> the last 20 years of his life</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:28:41">on saying doug don't worry just stay alive</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:28:44"> they'll eventually get it and</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:28:47"> he died and the world hasn't got it</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:28:50"> so there isn't a system like this</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:28:53">except some a few specialized</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:28:56"> ones for specialized scientists and engineers</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:28:59">but for the general public there's nothing like this</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:29:2">well let's</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:29:5"> take a look at the world's greatest hockey player</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:29:11">why was he so great</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:29:14">hings they complained about was uh</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:29:17"> his percentage of</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:29:20"> getting goals was low but he got</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:29:23">han a thousand goals more than anybody else in history</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:29:26"> and he said well you miss 100 of the shots</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:29:29"> you don't take so you got to shoot on goal</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:29:32">worry about whether it's going to go in or not just have to keep on</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:29:35"> doing it and then the big idea is</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:29:38">where the puck is going to be</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:29:41">don't follow it</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:29:44"> go to where somebody can pass you the puck that gives</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:29:47"> you and you're you've lined up with a clean shot on the goal</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:29:50"> so we can look</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:29:53"> at that as a strategy and here's a</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:29:56"> little piece of history oversimplified</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:29:59"> but in 1968</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:30:2">i was in grad school i was working on this desktop</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:30:5"> computer called the flex machine this is</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:30:8"> a self-portrait of it on its own</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:30:11"> screen from back then</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:30:14"> and around</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:30:17"> october or so september october i met</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:30:20"> seymour pappert who was</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:30:23"> doing computing with children</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:30:26"> and paper and i were both mathematicians</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:30:29">but he had he understood something about children</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:30:32"> that tapped into some</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:30:35">very aware of but i never occurred</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:30:38"> to me that it would really work with children</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:30:41"> i never made the connection at all i was</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:30:44">till on the pink plane and when i saw what paper</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:30:47"> was doing i realized he'd come up with one of the great</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:30:50"> ideas of the 60s maybe of the</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:30:53"> 20th century and that changed</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:30:56"> my idea about what i was doing completely</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:30:59"> to the point where on the plane</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:31:2">utah i drew this</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:31:5"> cartoon a blue plain cartoon</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:31:8"> of what children actually needed</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:31:11"> and it's not so much the tablet</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:31:14"> idea that's what people home in on</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:31:17"> but it was the idea of taking</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:31:20">bart was trying to do with</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:31:23"> human adults and</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:31:26"> understanding what augmenting children</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:31:29"> actually means which means</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:31:32"> to change the quality of what's going on</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:31:35">their ears even as they learn these</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:31:38"> tools so that was huge so</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:31:41"> that was one of those kerpaus</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:31:44">and here's the thing you can do when you have an</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:31:47"> idea you think is good</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:31:50"> look around into the future to</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:31:53"> see if there's a vehicle that's favorable</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:31:56"> like we had moore's law</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:31:59"> a prediction that went</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:32:2"> out towards the end of the century</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:32:5">odd years so take the idea</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:32:8"> out 30 years and look at</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:32:11"> it out there and say</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:32:14"> 30 years from now would it be ridiculous if we</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:32:17"> didn't have this and my answer was well yeah it would be ridiculous</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:32:20"> moore's law says we can have it</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:32:23"> so we should start designing it now because the design</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:32:26">the hard problem well the way you do that is you</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:32:29">this idea back to 10 or 15</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:32:32"> years out and ask is there</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:32:35"> something i can do here and the answer is yes</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:32:38"> and then here's the key thing</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:32:41"> 10 to 15 years out is just</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:32:44"> dollars away from where we are now</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:32:47"> meaning you can</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:32:50"> by spending a lot of money now to make</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:32:53"> a supercomputer you can</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:32:56">make the computing power that's going to exist 10</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:32:59"> or 15 years in the future as a commodity</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:33:2">so you spend that money that's what we did at xerox</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:33:5"> park thanks to butler lamson</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:33:8"> and chuck thacker especially chuck who</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:33:11"> made this super computer</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:33:14"> and now you've</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:33:17">actually invent software</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:33:20"> rather than just piggybacking on</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:33:23"> the software of your day you can</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:33:26"> do many experiments and if you have a super computer</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:33:29"> wow</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:33:32"> you don't even have to optimize a lot of code you can do</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:33:35">experiments to understand</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:33:38"> new ways of doing user interface like the one we have today</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:33:41"> if you do optimize you can do the</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:33:44"> kinds of applications that will exist 10 and 15</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:33:47"> years into the future such as microsoft</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:33:50"> word which was originally done in 1974 at</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:33:53"> parcc and so for computing people</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:33:56"> the simplest heuristic i can think of</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:33:59"> is if you're trying to do</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:34:2">future you have to</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:34:5"> understand</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:34:8">that this</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:34:11"> as nice as it is looks sort of similar to</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:34:14"> something that we were thinking about a long time ago</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:34:17"> it's nice that this is this is the not</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:34:20"> not even the present this is the past</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:34:23"> so when i go into a research lab in a company</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:34:26"> or i go in to graduate school i see students</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:34:29">to do a thesis in the future</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:34:32">today rather than</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:34:35"> using machines that cost probably eighty</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:34:38"> or ninety thousand dollars</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:34:41"> like i see futility</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:34:44"> it's almost impossible</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:34:47">progress when you're mired</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:34:50"> in the entire infrastructure of the day</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:34:53"> we were really lucky at xerox park</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:34:56">because our funders and at arpa our funders</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:34:59"> were willing to fund</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:35:2"> the from scratch development of both hardware and software</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:35:5"> that is a risky business</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:35:8"> so you have to get some chops to</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:35:11"> do it but if you can do it and your funders will fund it</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:35:14"> that is a way of escaping from the pink</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:35:17"> plane okay</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:35:20"> i'll end with dunning krueger i think everybody</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:35:23"> knows what that means it's a</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:35:26"> these are two psychologists who studied</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:35:29"> uh people who were</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:35:32"> too stupid to</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:35:35"> know how stupid they were</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:35:38"> uh here's a nice cartoon</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:35:41">this is about elitism</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:35:44"> the passages said these smug pilots have lost</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:35:47">regular passengers like us who thinks i</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:35:50"> should fly the plane and of course we have a president</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:35:53">he united states who thinks</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:35:56">the plane and the passengers</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:35:59">of them we'll find out</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:36:2"> in a month or two just how this plays</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:36:5"> out but here's the big</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:36:8"> idea the big idea is for all levels</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:36:11"> of ability human beings</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:36:14"> tend to overestimate uh</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:36:17"> uh how good they are</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:36:20"> we all you know it's actually a</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:36:23">heuristic it helps to be overly</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:36:26"> optimistic can't just</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:36:29"> cower in a cave but in fact it's</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:36:32"> deadly and it's something that has</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:36:35"> to be understood and dealt with so</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:36:38"> occasionally there are</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:36:41">people who undervalue themselves occasionally people are more</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:36:44">right on it but generally speaking</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:36:47"> kahneman has it right</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:36:50"> that</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:36:53"> gener generally speaking most people are completely</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:36:56"> unaware of how poorly they think</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:36:59">including people who are professional thinkers like</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:37:5">most of the time i'm not aware of how poorly i think</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:37:8"> but the big difference is i know as</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:37:11">idea that most of my thinking must</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:37:14"> be poor must be poorer than i</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:37:17"> think it is most of the time</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:37:20"> my ideas are mediocre down to bad even</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:37:23"> one of these kerpaus so just</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:37:26"> that as a heuristic really helps</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:37:29">and the other problem with being really</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:37:32">smart and i've known some</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:37:35"> work with some people who are a lot smarter than i am</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:37:38"> some of them were so smart they</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:37:41"> had the extra 80 iq points they were</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:37:44"> so smart that they</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:37:47"> just</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:37:50"> tried to bowl every problem through just from sheer</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:37:53"> intellectual ability and lots of times they were successful</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:37:56"> and</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:37:59"> some of the biggest inventions though came from people who are not quite</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:38:2"> that smart they realized</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:38:5"> they just didn't have the intellectual capacity to deal with this</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:38:8"> this level of complexity and so they'd</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:38:11">invent a new kind of programming language</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:38:14"> that would relieve a lot of the intellectual</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:38:17"> burden</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:38:20"> so the point of view equals 80 iq</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:38:23">it could mean a minus 80 iq points</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:38:26"> not plus it's</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:38:29"> whatever context you choose you can choose a really terrible</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:38:32"> context okay</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:38:35"> let's do the q and a and</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:38:38"> um i more or less used up my</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:38:41">think yeah but we started</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:38:44">thank you thank you alan so</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:38:47"> we will see how many questions from the</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:38:50"> queue we can accommodate</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:38:53"> um i start my video thank</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:38:56"> you so the first question is which cognitive biases</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:38:59">most actively working to counter</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:39:2"> in your own life decisions</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:39:5">well i</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:39:11">the one that has always dogged</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:39:14"> me is uh</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:39:17">not feeling</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:39:20">of my results is</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:39:26">o i've always been down on uh</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:39:29"> my efforts and a heuristic</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:39:32"> that i came up with uh that</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:39:35"> works some of the time is whenever</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:39:38">feel like</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:39:41"> i'm not doing well</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:39:44"> enough i asked myself uh</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:39:47"> well uh what's what's the quality of your effort</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:39:50">and</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:39:53"> if the quality of my effort</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:39:56"> if i couldn't be putting more effort in</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:39:59"> to the thing i start feeling better</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:40:2"> because</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:40:5"> quality of effort is something you can control by willpower</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:40:8"> but the complexity of the universe</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:40:11"> means that you can't control your ideas</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:40:14"> to be as good as</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:40:20">okay that really leads to</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:40:23">question what approaches do you recommend</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:40:26">prove that an abstract idea actually works</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:40:29"> i guess that to prove something to the research community</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:40:32"> we end up categorizing ideas like matter</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:40:35"> rather than light well</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:40:38"> so my research community uh</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:40:41">was</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:40:44"> first it was made up of former</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:40:47">scientists uh in</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:40:50"> the mathematical physical scientists sciences</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:40:53"> and from [Music]</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:40:56"> you know established deep engineering</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:40:59">so there were no undergraduate</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:41:2"> degrees in computing</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:41:5"> back then and this helped a lot because</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:41:8"> all of us had been through the rigors</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:41:11"> of dealing with highly developed fields</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:41:14"> uh with complex</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:41:17"> theories and complex ways of trying to</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:41:20"> understand the theories and vet the theories and</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:41:23"> and of course in engineering uh</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:41:26"> one of the ways you vet things is by building models</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:41:29"> and then you build actual bridges and</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:41:32"> the hippocratic oath in engineering</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:41:35"> is the the plane must not crash the bridge</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:41:38"> nut must not fall</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:41:41"> so the arpa and park research communities</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:41:44"> basically</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:41:47"> didn't spend any time arguing with anybody that</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:41:50"> was what was nice with the funding that we had</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:41:53"> and our view was there</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:41:56">that was hugely</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:41:59"> interesting about what we were trying to do</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:42:2"> that you could prove mathematically</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:42:5"> although we used math in a variety of</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:42:8">ways and that the only way you could</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:42:11"> vet your ideas was to actually build the artifacts</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:42:14"> so that little</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:42:17"> personal supercomputer the alto that we built we actually</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:42:20"> built 2 000 of them and in today's</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:42:23"> money they would each one of them would have been about</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:42:26"> 120 000</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:42:29"> uh xerox uh paid for those</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:42:32"> uh ivan sutherland did his thesis</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:42:35"> of inventing computer graphics and</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:42:38"> much of personal computing</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:42:41"> in the early 60s on a</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:42:44"> sage air defense computer that costs</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:42:47"> uh probably 20 or 30 million dollars</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:42:50"> and arpa gave him time on that</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:42:53"> computer so</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:42:56"> so in the world i came from</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:42:59"> uh you basically built anything that</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:43:2"> uh you uh thought was interesting</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:43:5"> and particularly</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:43:8"> uh for the personal computing aspect which really was</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:43:11">arpa was about and networking</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:43:17">you had to build personal computing</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:43:20">means user interface no matter</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:43:23"> what else people think it is in</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:43:26"> order and user interface is something where we do</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:43:29"> not know enough about human beings</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:43:32"> to be able to design abstractly and</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:43:35"> have uh the interface</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:43:38"> work and i can tell you that i</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:43:41"> think it is justifiably the case</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:43:44"> that several of us knew quite a bit more about</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:43:47"> human beings back then</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:43:50"> just because we had studied</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:43:53"> them we knew</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:43:56"> more i think than most people who do user interfaces today</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:43:59">but in fact we had to do hundreds of experiments</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:44:2">okay</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:44:5"> thank you uh maybe we can get one more question</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:44:8">the answer a bit short</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:44:11"> in order not to over stretch schedule</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:44:14"> too much the question is is the</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:44:17">innovation culture quote unquote something that</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:44:20">engineered or is it something that</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:44:23">from the right incentive structure within a community</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:44:26">i'm particularly interested in transdisciplinary</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:44:29">collaboration yeah so</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:44:32"> the first thing is uh you know we're</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:44:35"> using these hard category words innovation</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:44:38"> is a terrible word for what we did</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:44:41"> at arpa and park</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:44:44"> and this was pointed out in the 80s by regis</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:44:47"> mckenna who was a silicon valley</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:44:50"> figure he said apple is innovation</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:44:53"> xerox park is invention</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:44:56">innovation</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:44:59"> is complex it's difficult</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:45:2"> it's expensive it has</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:45:5">things but it is uh taking an</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:45:8"> idea and doing the packaging</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:45:11"> it's basically incremental</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:45:14"> to a sea of ideas that already exists</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:45:17"> otherwise you put it trying to load too much</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:45:20"> into innovation which is what has happened today</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:45:23"> you're much better off saying</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:45:26"> yeah there's this idea of invention</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:45:29"> where even inventions come from previous</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:45:32"> things but they're much more startling</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:45:35"> than most of the things we call innovations</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:45:38"> today and yes and you</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:45:41"> can do an innovation culture</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:45:44"> that is precisely what arpa did</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:45:47"> and uh there's a great book</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:45:50"> called the dream machine by mitchell raldrip which is</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:45:53"> the history of both arpa and xerox</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:45:56"> park it's the only really good one i know of</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:45:59"> i've written you can find some papers</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:46:2">i've written about why i think the culture</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:46:5"> worked i just did one</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:46:8"> for the ellen macarthur</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:46:11"> foundation over here last year which</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:46:14"> looked at these large efforts that</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:46:17"> required a lot of invention and had</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:46:20"> to be done relatively rapidly by top</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:46:23"> people with unlimited funding and i picked five</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:46:26"> or six of them you know the radar effort</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:46:29"> the atomic bomb effort the code breaking</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:46:32"> effort the</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:46:35"> sage air defense system and then i</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:46:38"> use these as a background to look at</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:46:41"> the principles that came out of the</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:46:44">park thing and you know</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:46:47">community and invented so many things</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:46:50"> that it's impossible</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:46:53"> to say well this is just a fluke</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:46:56"> right there's actually principle</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:46:59"> in there particularly at park where taylor</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:47:2"> who had been an arpa funder put</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:47:5"> into work at park what he thought</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:47:8"> made arpa successful and he would tell you about</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:47:11"> it if you asked him so yeah</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:47:14">can do it the problem is funders today</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:47:17"> confuse being responsible</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:47:20">with</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:47:23"> the feeling that they should be controlling</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:47:26"> things and in</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:47:29"> edge of the art research that's a disaster because</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:47:32">funders have not been doing edge of the art research all</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:47:35"> their life they've been accumulating money in one</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:47:38">way or another they're the worst people to try and do problem</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:47:41"> finding so every time that somebody</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:47:44"> has tried to do a park-like place</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:47:47">since then some silicon valley billionaires have tried</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:47:50"> and some seattle billionaires have tried</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:47:53"> it's always been a disaster because</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:47:56">want to play and they forget</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:47:59"> well hey you never did any of this stuff</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:48:2"> why do you you know you don't want to</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:48:5">a wannabe you made billions of dollars but you just</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:48:8"> don't have the skills to do this far</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:48:11">out stuff you don't know how to think about it just</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:48:14"> put the money in and go away</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:48:17"> and the people who can do</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:48:20">found and they will think of new things</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:48:23"> that nobody else ever thought of and maybe</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:48:26"> 30 or 40 percent of them will be successful</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:48:29">and if they're working on a big enough problem like</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:48:32"> we were that 30 or 40 percent that</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:48:35">successful will change the entire world</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:48:38"> and in the case of arpa and park it brought</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:48:41">close to 50 trillion dollars of new wealth</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:48:44">so it's actually a good investment it's the largest return</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:48:47"> on investment on research and history</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:48:50"> but the funders today will</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:48:53">it because they can't deal</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:48:56"> with spending five or ten years of</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:48:59"> learning curve just to get a factor of</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:49:2">more money they only want millions</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:49:5"> and billions they they can't stand the idea of trillions</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:49:8"> so if you look at the look at the comp</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:49:11">anies on the uh in</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:49:14"> the stock market that have trillion dollar evaluations</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:49:17"> today every single one of them you</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:49:20">t of the technologies that were invented</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:49:23">by the stuff that no funder will fund today</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:49:26"> thank you alan i think this was a very</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:49:29"> important and very deep insight</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:49:32">o summarize your talk thank you very much</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:49:35"> for the inspirational talk uh we enjoyed it very much</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:49:38">sorry that we can't handle more questions</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:49:41"> i would like to invite you to join some of the other activities</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:49:44">the week of the heidelberg laureate forum</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:49:47">look into the vr space and meet some people</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:49:50">whatever but for the time</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:49:53">much for joining us and uh hope</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:49:56"> to see you in person sometime in the</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:49:59"> future bye-bye</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:50:2">uh we will now switch to the next</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:50:5">which is a completely recorded uh event</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:50:8"> uh it will be given by david silver</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:50:11"> but i shouldn't get ahead of myself because i will</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:50:14">introduction in this pre-recording anyway</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:50:17"> no pause here we just continue</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:50:23">[Music]</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:50:26"> stay</subtitle>
<subtitle id="0:50:29"> [Music]</subtitle>