View source for A talk at User Group University (1987)

{{#evt:
service=youtubeIA
|id=LwCOJ4VlkAI
|alignment=left
|autoresize=true
}}

<subtitle id='00:00:00'></subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:00:11'>Apple has finally decided that it's a product company what they mean by that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:00:16'>is that Apple one of the companies that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:00:20'>Apple sees itself as being like is sony Sony is a company that creates many of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:00:26'>the markets it sells in I think Apple came to that realization not so much</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:00:31'>from the Apple two because the Apple two happened in a in a way where was hard</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:00:37'>for them to even see that they had created in some sense a business for IBM</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:00:42'>to move into but I think that the the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:00:48'>success of desktop publishing caught</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:00:52'>their attention where they realized that oh yes Desktop iBM is just setting up a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:00:58'>2,000 person group in Colorado to do</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:01:03'>desktop publishing that's about just about a third of the employees at the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:01:08'>Apple has I think now we realize oh yeah now we what we are is a product company</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:01:14'>we're going to listen to customers but we also are going to try and come up</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:01:19'>with new ideas creating new markets and see if the customers will go along with</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:01:24'>us I like that very much of course because the the idea the the big problem</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:01:32'>in all marketing theories where you go out and ask the customers what they want</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:01:36'>is that customers almost always say oh I want something just like what I have</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:01:41'>right now except with these little things fixed we have to listen to that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:01:46'>but you don't get new products from that a couple of months ago I was reading</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:01:50'>Toynbee and the discussion was how do</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:01:54'>you judge the worth of a civilization is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:01:58'>it by the quality of their art the size of their buildings the social systems</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:02:04'>that they have and I think we 100 years</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:02:09'>from now we will be judged yay by the complexity of the audio-visual</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:02:13'>equipment we need to put on the presentation that's not much of a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:02:24'>picture is it now what I'm gonna try and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:02:29'>do is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:02:37'>instead of talking about future trends because I don't even believe in the word</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:02:41'>trends and instead of just telling you</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:02:45'>what I think the future is going to be I'd like what I'd like to do is to just</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:02:49'>tell you the way I predict the future when people ask me what's going to happen so that you'll be able to do it</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:02:55'>and then I won't have to give these talks anymore so four ways to predict</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:03:02'>the future well the first way came about in the early days of Xerox PARC when we</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:03:08'>had Xerox executives buzzing around like bees after honey saying what's the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:03:13'>future gonna be like what's gonna happen to us what's going to shape us and all</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:03:19'>these things I finally got angry at them I said look the best way to predict the future is to invent it you want a future</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:03:25'>come up with a vision and then build it and you've successfully produced the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:03:30'>future because you've simply made the future come out the way you want it</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:03:34'>that's what research people are for is to invent the future another one very</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:03:47'>sobering thing is it takes at least 10 years to go from a working good idea in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:03:54'>a laboratory to get it out in the outside world this is something I didn't</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:03:58'>believe in for many years when I was younger because it was so depressing an</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:05'>idea but in fact there are many instances of the 10-years story and if</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:11'>it's a really basic technology like transistors it will it may take 20 years</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:15'>does a basic technology has to displace the existing basic technology in order</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:21'>to take hold I'm going to come back to that because one of the implications of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:25'>the 10-year idea is that it means that most things are going to happen to you</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:30'>in the next five to eight years or in somebody's research lab right now so if</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:36'>you want to know what's going to happen all you have to do is go around the country and visit people in their</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:40'>research labs and see what they're doing and then you'll know the answer I</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:45'>brought a satchel full of tapes of various things from people's research</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:50'>labs and I'm going to show you at the end of the talk a lot of these tapes are older</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:55'>than 10 years old and the reason for</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:59'>that I'll explain in the last part of the talk another way of predicting the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:05'>future is to realize that what we're</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:10'>about here is the invent the invention</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:15'>of new kinds of information media there have already been bunches of information</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:20'>media invented over the last several thousands of years so if you take</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:25'>printing as an example there are four</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:29'>phases to how you make money and how you make money pushes these media through</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:34'>their four phases the first one is Hardware intensive when the new hardware</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:40'>is invented you get high margins on the hardware the problem is that's the most</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:44'>transitory phase because hardware is the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:48'>easiest thing for people to learn how to build and once you've learned how to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:52'>build it you are making it much more of a commodity item the margins go down you</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:56'>have competition and so forth and that's really what happened to printing in the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:01'>early days of printing they made most of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:05'>their money actually on paper the margins on paper it wasn't until the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:10'>Industrial Revolution that made paper inexpensive that you started seeing</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:15'>throwaway media throwaway media like the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:19'>novel now the novel have been around for several hundred years as an isolated art</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:23'>form but it didn't take hold until paper became cheap and we had to go into the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:28'>second phase which is the software phase we all know that software is a lousy</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:33'>business to be in alright because it's inherently a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:37'>cottage industry no publishing house has ever been able to sustain itself on</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:43'>having a captive stable of authors they've always had to go out and most</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:48'>people in publishing who have been smart going to distribution the distribution</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:54'>is the first aspect of the third phase which I call service by service I don't</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:59'>mean fixing things so much but in the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:03'>of going from these things which are basically selling items to selling</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:09'>service you address much more closely this quaint idea that there's actually a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:15'>human being at the other end of the transaction and the business that we're</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:19'>in is inescapably a service business even though most companies that are</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:24'>selling computer products right now would think of themselves as either hardware manufacturers or software</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:29'>designers but the urge sort of the the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:38'>medium the the forcing function of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:42'>networking especially forces us to become a service business and then the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:47'>one where you really make the money so if you can hang in there is the fourth</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:51'>phase which is way of life a way of life i define as anything that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:57'>is only noticeable when it's not there so for instance if you walk into ten</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:08:02'>years ago if you walked into somebody's office and you didn't see a telephone you would be really surprised nowadays</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:08:09'>if you walk into a person's office and you don't see a telephone you would say</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:08:13'>oh are you wearing yours now because your phone wired into your t-shirt we're</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:08:23'>big on t-shirts down here now so let's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:08:27'>test this out here let's I like everybody in the room to hold up their</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:08:31'>personal computer where is it okay some</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:08:36'>watches a little calculator okay so I</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:08:40'>rest my case I doubt if there's an Apple computer or anybody else's computer in this room and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:08:46'>that means that oh there's one over there well ignore that one</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:08:52'>it's what physicists call experimental error I think the point is well made</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:03'>that there's something about the computer right now that makes it not</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:07'>it's it's basically not important enough for you to have one with you right now</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:13'>something about it that causes you to leave it behind one of the things about</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:17'>it is it's too big another thing about it is that it</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:21'>doesn't do enough when you make it small so the real personal computer at least</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:26'>the when I envisioned the phrase personal computer many years ago I</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:30'>thought of something that you would never leave behind one of the tests at</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:34'>Xerox PARC we came up with four is it a personal computer which would you be</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:39'>willing to do anything so mundane with your personal computer as to put your</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:44'>grocery list on it if you're willing to carry it into you at the supermarket and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:48'>then out again with two bags of groceries in other words a personal</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:52'>computer is something first it is so portable you can carry something else</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:56'>too because its own not the only thing you're gonna carry and secondly 0.5</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:02'>herniation per block is not portability so this way of life Bayes is very</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:10'>important it's the one that I have been</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:14'>interested in for 20 years of what do you have to do to the damn thing to get</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:18'>it to be a way of life for people and finally human trait amplification this</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:27'>is sort of how you predict the big winners this is something I first</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:32'>pointed out to Xerox many years ago least like to try and do market surveys</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:37'>on things and I have to tell you what Xerox story that Xerox in the 50s was a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:47'>very small company in Rochester and they had developed this obscure technology</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:54'>invented by Chester Carlson into a machine called the 914 and they didn't</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:58'>have enough money to build factories for it so they took it to IBM I think it was</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:11:02'>in 1956 this is all described by the way four</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:11:06'>people are interested in this kind of lore in John des hours book which is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:11:10'>called my years with Xerox the billions nobody wanted this is sort of a perfect</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:11:17'>parable of life in the twentieth century so that's our story goes on to say that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:11:22'>IBM Xerox took this to IBM and they said here take this build factories build it</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:11:28'>and sell it all we want is a small royalty an IBM scratched its collective</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:11:33'>head and said well we don't know about that so they went out and got hired a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:11:38'>consulting firm Arthur D little is Mike</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:11:42'>hammer his definition of a consultant is a person who knows a hundred ways to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:11:46'>make love but doesn't have a girlfriend</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:11:57'>my definition is it's a person who steals from the smart cells to the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:12:01'>stupid sort of a sort of an inverse</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:12:05'>Robin Hood but anyway after 18 months of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:12:12'>carefully doing market surveys and other things consulting firms do Arthur D</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:12:16'>little came back to IBM and said nope it'll never sell there's too great a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:12:21'>disparity between it and the a be dick mimeograph machine and nobody wants</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:12:26'>plain paper copying and there isn't enough copy volume to sustain copying</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:12:33'>and all that stuff and so IBM turned it down and that really pissed Joe Wilson</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:12:40'>off who is the head of Haloid corporation in those days and they bunch</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:12:44'>of the executives got together they used their life insurance as security this is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:12:48'>the same way controlled data got started by the way out of Remington Rand raised</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:12:52'>the money for their first factories and that was about a hundred and twenty</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:12:56'>billion dollars ago it's a perfect example of when the technology is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:02'>actually new it's almost impossible to go out and do a market survey and find</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:07'>that there is a need for it because as we'll see in a minute really great stuff</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:12'>creates a need that's what all the so I</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:16'>pointed out to Xerox that another way of predicting these things was simply to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:21'>look at traits that human beings have</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:25'>that if the trait was taken away we would call a person no longer human like</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:29'>communication humans are not natural Hermits we have to communicate we don't</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:35'>do it just because it's useful we do it because we need to so whenever you make</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:39'>a communication amplifier and no matter</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:43'>sort of case law back then was even if it costs ten times as much as the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:48'>technology is trying to displace if it's really a better amplifier for</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:52'>communication it's going to drive it out perfect example is the railroads in the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:57'>early 1900's thought they were improving their business by making better track</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:14:03'>and faster locomotives they were looking out like this along the tracks what they didn't</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:14:09'>see was their competition starting to buzz overhead because they conclusively</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:14:14'>proved that there is no way that aircraft transportation could be as</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:14:18'>cheap as trains and they were absolutely right and totally irrelevant because</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:14:25'>people were quite happy to pay five six seven ten times as much for being able</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:14:30'>to get there much faster and even getting their Freight there much faster</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:14:34'>so here's another one I pointed out to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:14:39'>Warner's in Atari that fantasy amplifiers are big also and the reason</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:14:44'>for that is that even when we think we're in reality we're dwelling in a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:14:50'>fantasy or in a hallucination that is partly a product of our culture and our</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:14:55'>upbringing as well as what our sentence our senses bring to us and a third one</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:01'>is control one of the biggest traumatic</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:06'>shocks we have as a child growing up is when we start dimly sensing that the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:11'>universe isn't in our control I remember that the guy first realized that when I</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:18'>was about three years old and I've never gotten over it since but in fact this</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:22'>this idea of trying to be able to control things that amplifiers that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:26'>allow us to control various things and so forth it very important also and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:32'>simply you can tell very often whether a new product is going to make it if it</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:36'>really does amplify one of these or other human traits you don't have to go</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:40'>out and ask people they can't tell you that just as Sony did not market tests</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:47'>when they when they went out and tried to do the Walkman nobody wanted to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:53'>walkman until Sony built 5000 of them</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:57'>and gave them to people if you can give something to people and they can hold it</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:01'>in their hand then they know whether they like it or not that's one of the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:06'>reasons the Japanese have been so successful is that they know the way to do market analysis is not to go out and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:13'>ask the questions before you do the product what you do is you do the product and then see what people think</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:17'>about it because then they actually have an aid to their</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:21'>imagination let me just follow up on</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:34'>three ways to invent something this is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:38'>the most popular way take whatever's around shove it together and ask what</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:42'>you've got that's called brainstorming something</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:47'>these these productivity books think is important but in fact it's the worst way</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:52'>to do anything because people are usually lousy at thinking on their feet</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:57'>and they're terrible at thinking inside of a room people need sand under their</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:02'>feet to do good thoughts or maybe a shower or something better way is the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:08'>problem-solving method find a need and fill up but the one that really wins is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:15'>to make something that creates a problem only if can solve that's exactly what</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:25'>the Xerox machine was nobody had a copying problem until the Xerox 914 came</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:30'>along nobody had a calculation problem</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:37'>until the HP 35 came along the HP 35 and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:42'>calculators were predicted against for the simple reason that nobody did</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:46'>calculations up till then there are desk calculators around and people didn't</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:50'>realize that the that the simple access</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:54'>to calculation gratuitously was an important part of it and of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:58'>course the personal computer itself is an example of that nobody had a personal</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:02'>computing problem until pcs came along and now we all do possibly very possibly</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:14'>okay I'll just give you a few more slogans and homilies here</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:23'>another one is about literacy my</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:29'>definition of litter literacy is that literacy is fluency not familiarity I</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:35'>usually show this slides to the educators because educators think if</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:39'>they make a child familiar with the computer then the child is computer</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:43'>literate but in fact it's not true I believe literacy has three parts</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:47'>there's an access part that means</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:52'>somebody else makes up the material and you have the skills to get to whatever</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:57'>that material is we call that reading in the print medium and the Macintosh is a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:19:03'>good example of how to solve the access problem to operating systems and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:19:09'>applications second area we don't do so</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:19:13'>well at which is called creation fluency and the print medium that's writing and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:19:19'>writing is an example of something where we expect somebody who's literate to be</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:19:25'>able to write a 2-page two pages of something advancing a point of view and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:19:29'>substantiating it in order to convince somebody and this two-page thing is very</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:19:35'>important because most people have a very difficult time dealing in large</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:19:39'>number of pages of anything even for people who can write so it's very</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:19:43'>important for English through the use of metaphor to be able to express fairly</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:19:49'>complex ideas in a couple of pages programming languages are terrible for</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:19:55'>that almost all programming languages to do anything interesting in takes you far</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:00'>beyond several pages and one of the things we found out at Xerox PARC years ago is that the if it's a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:06'>trade-off between an easy programming language like say basic or logo that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:11'>requires tens and twenties and hundreds of pages of program to do something and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:16'>a very abstract programming language such as small talk which can do many</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:22'>interesting things in a couple of pages then it's better to teach the abstract</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:26'>language to end users non-programmers</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:30'>than it is to try and teach the so-called easy programming because in fact having the programs be</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:36'>very small allows the person to use their visual field as an augmentation to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:40'>their short-term memory and that is the critical thing in end-user programming</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:44'>and finally the third fluency I call</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:51'>shanwa fluency and by that I mean that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:55'>for anything you can be literate in has a literature and it's a very nature of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:21:00'>literature that the literature is in different styles so it's not just enough</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:21:05'>to be able to read and write but you should be able to access other people's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:21:09'>ideas by being able to absorb other styles of talking about things and again</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:21:17'>this is something that will be more and more important in the future as</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:21:22'>networking allows us access to more and more potentially useful tools that right</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:21:28'>now we can't use because we can't sit</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:21:32'>down and absorb a different style and here we're talking about more than just</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:21:36'>to use their interface having a uniform user interface like on the macintosh is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:21:40'>important but it's not enough</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:21:51'>and one final set of ideas</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:21:58'>McLuhan pointed out mentioned that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:02'>Whitehead had called the greatest invention of the 19th century being</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:07'>invention itself and Whitehead substantiated that by pointing out that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:12'>the number of crackpot inventions in the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:17'>Patent Office in England had gone up by more than a factor of 30 starting in the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:22'>early 1800s that everybody was inventing people are inventing automatic hat</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:29'>tipping of devices and strangely shaped bicycle seats and every other kind of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:34'>thing amazing anything that could be thought of in some things we'd never</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:38'>think of were patented a huge explosion and the important thing about that was</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:43'>that the number of good things went up by a factor of three that factor of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:48'>three coupled with the Industrial Revolution changed the way we do things</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:53'>McLuhan said if the greatest invention of the 19th century was invented there</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:58'>was invention then the 20th century is the century in which change changed our</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:23:05'>whole notion of what we meant by change over the last 10,000 years has changed</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:23:10'>in the 20th century and so here's an example this is a list compiled by a Jim</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:23:16'>cook who's a corporate thinker on the East Coast is kind of interesting so the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:23:23'>mission of the Industrial Age was to amplify the body and the mission of the Information Age is to amplify the mind</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:23:28'>he says structure of the Industrial Age of the hierarchy the Information Age is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:23:33'>naturally a network the output products and services but the new output is ideas</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:23:38'>and decision decisions advantage economy of scale now it's timeliness and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:23:44'>leverage old gold efficiency new goal effectiveness manages activity now we</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:23:51'>manage communication control with centralized now it's going to be</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:23:55'>decentralized medium is immeasurables new medium is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:00'>concepts so forth evaluation as in reports now we</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:05'>believe sensitivity is to organizational</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:10'>structures now it's the talent cohesion is through discipline nucleation is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:15'>through commitment risk return incremental now it's volatile the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:20'>leaders used to be dogmatic now they're charismatic and the heroes used to be</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:25'>specialists but now they're going to be generalists I subscribe to most of these</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:29'>things that this way of looking at</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:33'>things says that it's more than just incremental changes that are going on in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:37'>this century it's a whole different way of thinking about doing things</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:48'>well it's just that the basically</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:52'>there's a guy by the name of Lewis Mumford used to write interesting books</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:57'>about how civil how civilizations organize themselves to accomplish tasks</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:02'>one of the the terms he made up was</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:06'>called that civilizations he called the mega machine he was very interested in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:11'>what the mega machine was set up to do he thought of offices and businesses as</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:16'>being communications devices when you set up a business it's it's not it's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:22'>ostensibly to sell goods and services perhaps what it really is as a communications device he's very</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:27'>interested in what what the business was</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:32'>as a system and what you can do with a hierarchical organization what you can't</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:37'>do how flexible is a hierarchical organization say to corruption at the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:43'>top versus how flexible is a network</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:47'>organized organization to corruption anywhere he was interested in the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:51'>difference between simple mechanical systems as applied to human sociology</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:56'>versus more biological systems systems that are more tissue-like and so I'm</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:02'>just putting those out there as a as a way of pointing out that the the very</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:08'>structures in which organizations use to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:12'>communicate and move ahead is changing is partly changing simply because the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:18'>information the way we can move information around is different one of the ways of thinking about how humans</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:23'>have gotten ahead over the last 10,000</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:27'>years could be thought of is each stage of civilization has found a way of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:33'>making an abstraction into an object 10,000 years ago words were not objects</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:41'>oral society words are not objects they can't be put down in a way so that you</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:46'>can stand back from them people marveled</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:50'>at st. Augustine because he was one of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:54'>the few people in his time that could read without reading aloud and moving</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:59'>his lips when people read meta evil manuscripts</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:03'>even up to the 1400s they read aloud and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:07'>they read slowly because it was they were essentially an oral culture the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:13'>writing system that they had was a way of capturing oral culture not changing</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:17'>the culture McLuhan tells a really interesting story fascinating story</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:23'>about a tribe in Africa that had just recently achieved literacy via some</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:28'>missionaries that had helped them make</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:32'>up a syllabary like Hindi but a syllabary of some 60 or so signs that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:39'>stood for the syllables in their language and several people in each</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:43'>village had learned to read this syllabary and the story that McLuhan</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:48'>tells is that when a letter came into the village it would go to the person</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:52'>who could read it to the family who would received the letter and if the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:57'>letter wasn't was a personal letter the person who read the letter to the family</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:02'>would put his fingers in his ears as he read the letter so he couldn't hear now</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:09'>think about that think about that because that's what I'm</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:13'>trying to say that McLuhan said I don't know who discovered the wall who</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:18'>discovered water but it wasn't a fish in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:23'>other words it is the stuff that we're embedded in that we take for granted</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:28'>that shapes us there's no reason why human beings have to be the way they are</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:33'>in any particular culture there are many different ways of doing things and the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:37'>thing that we're at least aware of is the way our culture does things so people like Mumford and McLuhan are</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:43'>tremendously useful in that they point out how how different are the ways that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:48'>people have solved their problems and how different it is for instance to read</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:53'>fluently in a print medium in which none</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:57'>of the emotion is expressed in the form of the text the illuminated manuscripts</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:29:03'>were there as a kind of a stage setting to bring forth the emotion that was</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:29:09'>essentially a poetic expression of things</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:29:13'>prose is something that really became possible with the printing press and our</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:29:19'>reaction the way we read prose is totally different the way we get emotion</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:29:23'>from prose is totally different from the way we do when we were in oral culture</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:29:29'>so in fact this is a good good place for this another one of these triads solving</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:29:39'>the problem is all is often futile it definitely is in futurism changing the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:29:45'>problem is what the books tell you to do but in fact changing the context is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:29:52'>almost always the most powerful the reason for this is that logic is basically a weak method we're not any</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:29:58'>smarter than we were thousands of years ago and if we were put back take any</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:04'>person in this room and put them back in 60 AD and try and get them to multiply</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:08'>two numbers using Roman numerals we would see just how smart we looked the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:13'>representation systems are the things that are powerful our ability to do</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:17'>logical thinking has changed about the same so this was a slogan that we liked</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:22'>at Xerox PARC so I made up call point of view is worth ad IQ points and that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:28'>slogan was made up when we were developing the user interface that led to the Macintosh what we're trying to do</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:34'>is instead of trying to change the human</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:38'>species so that they could run ms-dos</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:44'>or for the ms-dos of the day thank</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:48'>goodness it wasn't around when Park was thriving but they were equally bad</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:53'>systems back then what we asked was what is the context that can make people look</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:58'>smart on a computer what is the one that allows them to use</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:02'>the logical operations that they've learned all their life and well that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:07'>will translate into actually controlling the computer and that's what led to the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:11'>familiar Macintosh user interface</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:22'>so</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:27'>so what caught business data processing off-guard in the past decade</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:31'>I think desktop micros certainly</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:35'>surprised them they were out buying IBM mainframes spreadsheets surprised them</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:41'>Universal bitmap graphics such as on the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:45'>Macintosh that is graphics without any modes where you don't have to say ahead</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:49'>of time when you're designing the machine what can go on the screen</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:53'>pointing window interfaces like the Macintosh desktop publishing local area</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:58'>networking all of those things were a big surprise over the last ten years and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:32:03'>the business data processing people are still scrambling to try and figure out</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:32:07'>what it all means they want to play it safe but they suspect now that sort of like a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:32:13'>Christian Scientist with appendicitis you know it's sort of one of those</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:32:20'>ultimate conflicts that you don't quite know what to do I'm not going to talk</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:32:30'>about I just want to go through a list that obvious changes the next five years</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:32:35'>I'm not even going to talk about many of the changes in the next few years you can see by going over the Apple World</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:32:42'>Expo multi megabyte Ram faster CPUs for</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:32:49'>user pervasive networking three-pound computers application kits and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:32:55'>generators higher-level language programming very high level language</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:01'>expert system prototyping fast deductive reasoning and some more attempt at</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:08'>standards particularly at the network level those are all obvious things I</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:13'>don't think they deserve too much comment here</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:19'>so less obvious changes in the next five years now machines we did it park first</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:32'>machine we did it park if you were to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:36'>bench market today was about as fast as</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:40'>the Mac two which is wonderful wonderful</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:46'>at the Mac to all of us that some of our</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:50'>the old systems we used to do like small talk run beautifully on the Mac too and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:54'>we just love it and but what's been happening in the industry is something</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:58'>is that's pretty good pretty annoying and it has to do a lot with the physical</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:34:04'>form of RAM memory and that is the band the bandwidth per bit in memories has</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:34:12'>been going down what do I mean by that well I mean that the you know you in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:34:18'>order to get bandwidth in memory you have to configure the memory you know in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:34:22'>a certain width if you make a 16-bit wide memory and you have to buy a one</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:34:28'>megabit chip then 16 of those one megabyte megabit chips will give you 2</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:34:34'>megabytes of memory 16 bits wide that's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:34:38'>not very fast these days so if you want</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:34:42'>to go faster you can go to a 32-bit wide memory that says you have to buy 16 more</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:34:48'>of those chips that get says that in order to have a single 32-bit wide</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:34:52'>memory you have to have 4 megabytes of memory and it's still only 32 bits wide</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:34:58'>what I mean because the memories get longer you have to configure enormous</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:03'>memories in order to have a reasonable bandwidth per bit in memories and that's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:08'>not so good and what what that means is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:12'>that the MIPS per megabyte ratio has</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:16'>been going down so the Macintosh for</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:20'>instance has about is about a 1 MIT processor and it has about 1 megabyte of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:24'>storage and that we think is pretty bad because the machines we built at Parc</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:30'>had three MIPS let's see let me work it</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:34'>out it had about a myth per hundred</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:38'>kilobytes so every hundred kilobytes of memory we built had a park we had 1</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:43'>million instruction per second of processor and was we built a very big</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:49'>machine we actually built in 1978 a machine that had 40 million instructions</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:54'>per second for doing all that stock and no that is really important so today's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:00'>micros in my opinion are underpowered in processor speed for the amount of memory</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:05'>they have on them that's going to change this is going to be this change of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:10'>having many many more millions of instructions per second for the size</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:15'>memory you have on your machine is going to be a big surprise to people over the next few years would not surprise me at</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:22'>all before 1990 to have 75 or even 100</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:27'>nips on a desktop no</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:37'>well show you why you need it say I told</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:41'>you these weren't so obvious part of the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:46'>part of the way we're going to get that is we're going to have many more CPUs per user I'll give you an example there</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:52'>are lots of different ways of trading off these two but in a good example of a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:57'>new kind of architecture is the system called the connection machine at</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:37:03'>Thinking Machines Corporation ok this machine is is a machine that has 65,000</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:37:10'>processors each processor is a one myth processor and each processor is attached</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:37:18'>to four kilobytes of memory ok so this is a one MIT processor for four</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:37:23'>kilobytes of memory and that's the machine so in fact there is no separate</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:37:29'>Ram we have a one myth processor on four</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:37:33'>kilobytes of memory you have 65,000 of them and that is now what can you do</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:37:40'>with the machine like that well an example is inductive reasoning I'll give</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:37:45'>you two examples that you find it hard</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:37:49'>pressed to do on any other machine one of them is doing information retrieval</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:37:54'>over large document spaces one of the hardest things to do is to get a set of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:00'>indexes that represent some theory you</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:04'>have about a set of documents ok because</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:09'>people have a hard time assigning keywords and full-text retrieval tends</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:14'>to retrieve too much if you've ever used a good full-text system like Nexus so</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:19'>the process on this machine is you start off like Nexus you come up with a couple</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:23'>of keywords and it retrieves a bunch of documents and you look at these</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:27'>documents and you see you score them you say oh this is just the kind of document</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:31'>I want this one is way off and then what</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:35'>it does is it takes all the documents you like and intersects every</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:39'>non-trivial word in the document with</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:43'>each other and when it comes back with is another set of keywords gotten out of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:49'>this massive intersection does this intersection in about one</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:53'>second and then what it does it then it</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:57'>retrieves from the entire database all the documents that matched those guys and you get to score again okay and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:04'>what's amazing about this and there are several papers you can get from Thinking</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:08'>Machines Corporation if this intrigues you is that after you do this two or</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:12'>three times the keywords stabilize and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:16'>you get a keyword set that will retrieve just the kinds of documents that you want and almost always exclude the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:22'>documents you don't want just a couple of passes and this whole process to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:27'>establish that it takes just a few minutes now this is just simply isn't</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:32'>possible to do I'll give you one more example one of the problems in expert</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:37'>systems is that expert systems know a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:42'>lot about a narrow domain but because</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:46'>they're basically deductive there has to be a rule in the expert system to cover</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:50'>every case so let's take a case where we're describing some symptoms to a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:57'>medical system and at some point the system needs to know the common-sense</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:02'>fact that women that men don't get pregnant and somebody forgot to put that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:09'>in there and the typical expert system will just bolt that's the end of it</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:14'>because the problem is is that the there we figure there are somewhere between</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:19'>200,000 and 500,000 common-sense rules that we all learn over the first 20</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:25'>years of our life that we used from getting from one expert island to another and it's very hard to codify</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:31'>those and people are trying to codify them now because that's what's one of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:35'>the things that's holding back expert systems now in the connection machine</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:39'>when it comes up to something like that it doesn't stop back it doesn't even</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:44'>have a common-sense rule base what it actually looks at is the last six months</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:48'>of reuters dispatches</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:52'>they just got the last six months of Reuters fashion this is about 15</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:56'>gigabytes of information and in a second</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:02'>literally a second it is able to come up with a 99% probability that men don't</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:07'>get pregnant because it has not found any mention of that in this general</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:12'>corpus that has to do with human life and so it uses this inductive assumption</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:18'>to carry on in the the the deductive</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:22'>process of trying to figure out what disease has so there are many others I'm</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:29'>gonna mention some of the the graphical needs for densely parallel processors in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:34'>a bit but I guess the point is that the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:40'>almost everything that has to do with the economics of building computers has</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:44'>to do with what it costs you to package the components and most of the things</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:49'>are going to surprise us in the next five years are going to be when certain</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:53'>packaging thresholds change abruptly and surprisingly one of them as we see is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:58'>going to be 3d graphics 3d graphics that will in done in real-time has been</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:04'>incredibly expensive for the last twenty</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:08'>years or so I was in the original group at Utah that invented 3d graphics and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:12'>none of us had any idea it was going to take so long but it's completely</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:17'>dictated by the economics of building systems that have 2,000 multipliers in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:22'>them and that's what it takes to do 3d graphics I'll get to that in a minute</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:29'>another example is what you might call</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:33'>ultra high level language end-user programming and tailoring this is this</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:39'>again is sort of a prediction and I</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:43'>believe it's going to come true not because it's easy but because it almost</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:47'>has to become true if we're going to have a hundred million computers in the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:51'>United States instead of something like 20 million that there's no way</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:56'>applications packages are going to be able to anticipate all of the needs</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:43:00'>without getting much more patchwork quilt II than they are and there has to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:43:04'>be some way for users to tailor the end results of the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:43:09'>system and even build some from scratch it's not going to be in any programming</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:43:13'>language that we know now common sense</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:43:18'>database I've already talked about a bit this means the difference between</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:43:24'>specific ways experts do things and those 200,000 facts that everybody knows</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:43:31'>but are harder to write down there's a wonderful research project in Texas at</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:43:37'>MCC right now done by Doug Glennon that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:43:41'>is using an ingenious set of techniques for coming up with a common sense</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:43:45'>database interesting thing about how big is this database he's done enough</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:43:52'>already he's been doing it for four years now he's done enough already to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:43:56'>establish that the database is somewhere between 8 megabytes and 100 megabytes in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:44:02'>size for all of the common-sense facts that people in our civilization know if</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:44:08'>you think about it sounds large but in fact it's only 1/5 of a compact disk</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:44:15'>only 1/5 of a compact this to have this and you can think of this common sense</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:44:20'>database in many ways as being the quick-draw of expert systems in the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:44:25'>future it's that set of stuff you want to have an e ROM that every expert</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:44:30'>system builder can rely on being there in a general inference engine in fact</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:44:35'>this next point speaks to that fact the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:44:40'>next several points do that it's going to be the integration of expert systems</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:44:45'>that will make expert systems as useful as the tools that you now enjoy on the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:44:50'>Macintosh expert systems right now are</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:44:54'>completely isolated and they've partly isolated just because they're done in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:44:59'>different languages but a lot of it is that they're isolated that there's no way for the inferencing mechanism to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:45:05'>move from one place to the other another non-obvious technology this is a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:45:11'>technology that has been chugging along pretty nicely for 10 years but nobody</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:45:15'>has noticed it in the micro world is what's called explanation generation</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:45:22'>and a explanation generator is a program</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:45:26'>that can look at a data structure knowing what the data structures are</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:45:30'>generally attempting to represent and generate perfect English prose at any</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:45:36'>level of detail about what that data structure is this is the exact opposite</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:45:42'>of a system that understands English input which is a very hard problem but</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:45:47'>systems that will be able to generate beautiful English output from</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:45:51'>representational structures will burst</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:45:55'>on the scene in the next five years there'll be an overnight sensation because it's only they've been worked on</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:46:01'>for the last 20 years or so just a technic technology that there's no hint</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:46:06'>of in the micro world right now I mentioned inductive reasoning another</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:46:15'>less obvious change is that I believe that user interfaces are going to change</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:46:19'>completely over the next five and ten years and the reason for that change is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:46:24'>going to be networking one of things you</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:46:28'>probably noticed when you put a hard disk on the Macintosh is that the nice</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:46:33'>browsing techniques of the finder don't work so well anymore you have to make</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:46:37'>things real small and some people go back to lists and stuff and all of a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:46:41'>sudden being able to browse a hundred items changes completely when you have</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:46:46'>to browse upwards of 2,000 items and this is something we found out at Xerox</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:46:51'>PARC in the mid 70s we started thinking about what that meant especially when</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:46:56'>you get hooked up to networks that are also hooked up to networks and you have</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:47:00'>hundreds of thousands of resources and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:47:05'>we thought that was rather like what happens when you wander into the Library of Congress in Washington and you</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:47:10'>discover to your dismay that the card catalog room is much larger than your</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:47:15'>hometown library and what do you do at the Library of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:47:20'>Congress well the first thing you do is find a person who is an expert in where</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:47:25'>things are that person will act as your agent during the time you're in the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:47:31'>Library of Congress the person does not know the answer to your question but the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:47:35'>person is an expert at the resources and pathways for finding the answer so this</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:47:40'>notion of agent is an old the idea in computer science it goes back actually</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:47:44'>to the early 50s McCarthy I mean late 50s McCarthy thought it up but there</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:47:49'>hasn't been enough pressure from the technology to develop agent based</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:47:53'>interfaces until now and finally one of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:03'>the things that we just absolutely need a factor of 100 more cycles for is what</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:10'>I called remember we talked about the one of the messages of the Mac is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:14'>Universal bitmap graphics that means Universal just means you don't have to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:19'>know ahead of time of what's going to be shown on the screen and the big change</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:23'>in the next five and 10 years is going to be extending that to 3d real-time the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:28'>animated graphics and simulation now let me give you some examples I'm sort of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:32'>going to be popping back and forth here</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:36'>they're a clicker up here yes there is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:44'>it's always nice when every Apple celebrates their invention of the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:49'>personal computer I always like to show the actual first personal computer</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:53'>because this is the machine called the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:58'>link and it was invented at Lincoln labs by Wesley Clark in 1962 near about 3000</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:49:05'>of these built in the in the 60s and a lot of their architecture were adopted</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:49:11'>by deck when deck invented the mini is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:49:16'>really kind of a shame because I sort of believe when deck look at this machine</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:49:20'>they thought oh what a great idea but people don't understand displays so</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:49:25'>we'll take that off and make it an option</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:49:29'>and these tapes that look like deck tapes are actually invented for this</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:49:33'>machine they actually held the pages of the virtual memory this first personal</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:49:37'>computer had so it had a swapping virtual memory run off these tapes and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:49:42'>Dex said oh but people don't understand virtual memory we've got it we'll put</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:49:46'>files on these tapes so they took this technology and made them back into</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:49:51'>something like computer tapes so this was a great idea that was way ahead of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:49:55'>its time now this is the invention of computer</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:50:00'>graphics Ivan Sutherlands sketch pad and sketch pad was not just a graphics</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:50:06'>system but in fact a it was a system</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:50:10'>that could do general-purpose simulations the graphics had meaning and in fact the system was called sketch pad</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:50:16'>because it would actually complete the drawings for you the drawings you just</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:50:20'>put it in roughly and then you told the system what the drawings should be and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:50:24'>sketchpad would complete the drawings all this in the very first graphic</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:50:28'>system and I'll show you an example of that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:50:39'>some over 1962 you see the familiar rubberband technique Ivan and someone</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:50:43'>actually invented it you something as easy for links to the edges and says I</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:50:50'>want these to be all mutually perpendicular and sketchpad figures out how to do that so you're seeing a real</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:50:57'>time expert system in action notice gets bad as the first system to ever have a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:01'>window here's another example</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:05'>draws a couple of lines he points to them he says make them parallel and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:11'>mutually perpendicular to the edge and sketchpad straightens up the drawing a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:16'>sketch pad is also the first non procedural programming system and it's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:21'>far far more capable than visicalc</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:26'>or Lotus 1-2-3 because it can solve nonlinear problems in many unknowns so</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:34'>now he's making the guidelines invisible</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:38'>you'll see this display jump around a lot because the tx2 computer that this</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:44'>is running on is many times larger than this room and it's putting up every dot</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:49'>on the screen by brute force that goes</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:53'>the last computer to ever have its own roof so here's another example he wants</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:52:01'>to draw a rivet he uses that cross place there as the center for the arc and now</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:52:07'>by simply pointing to the edges and telling sketch pad to straighten it up</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:52:12'>that will drag the cross pieces which will Center the rivet and sketchpad</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:52:18'>completes the drawing</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:52:23'>reason I'm showing you this stuff is because the Macintosh to here he's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:52:30'>showing it no matter how you distort it the same general rules or follow</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:52:34'>Macintosh to is the first micro computer fast enough to be able to do this kind</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:52:40'>of computer graphics and I predict that we'll see sketchpad what are called</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:52:44'>constraint oriented graphics systems popping up in the next several years</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:52:50'>have to have enormous computing power to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:52:54'>do this in real time now he's showing</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:53:00'>that anything that you can make a drawing of you can get instances of the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:53:08'>instances can be dynamically again you see the contrast here between this and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:53:12'>Mac draw which doesn't allow you to dynamically drag complex things it makes</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:53:20'>up a simplification of the complex thing</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:53:24'>for dragging purposes and here are some more instances of the rivet the reason I</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:53:30'>call them instances and not copies you'll see in a minute because he</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:53:34'>doesn't like the cross piece on the rivet so he goes back to the master</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:53:38'>drawing and makes the cross pieces transparent and we now see that the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:53:44'>rivet has the rivets have felt that change dynamically so sketchpad is also</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:53:50'>the first true object-oriented programming system and this again we</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:53:57'>will see on the Mac 2 in the next few years I asked Ivan once I said Ivan how could</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:54:04'>you possibly have done the world's first graphics system the first non procedural</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:54:08'>programming language and the first object-oriented programming system all</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:54:12'>in one year all by yourself and he said well I didn't know it was hard</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:54:19'>so this year is the 25th anniversary of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:54:24'>this system this is the 25th anniversary of computer graphics this year okay</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:54:36'>yes here's another something that we're</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:54:40'>going to see in the next few years I'm moving up in time this is Douglas</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:54:44'>Engelbart in this is about 1968 or so</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:54:49'>and Doug Lingle bar was the guy who invented hypertext systems and he also</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:54:56'>invented the mouse as you see black on</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:00'>white graphics view specs for windows</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:05'>and he had this interesting idea that people shouldn't have to hunched over</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:10'>their desk so the way you ran this system was this was a lap board that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:14'>went over your office chair so you could tilt put your feet up on your desk like</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:19'>you're used to or scooted around the room it's an idea whose time is yet not yet</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:24'>come in the microcomputer industry here's an example of that system what</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:29'>I'm showing you here was taken live from the demonstration of the system done in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:34'>1968 so this is 19 years old and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:39'>something that I predict will be able to write you as an intellectual worker were</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:46'>supplied with a computer display backed</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:50'>up by a computer that was alive for you all day and was instantly responsible responsive</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:57'>Anthony responsive every action you have how much value could you drive from that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:56:02'>well this basically characterizes what we've been pursuing for many years in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:56:07'>what we call the Augmented human intellect Research Center at Stanford Research Institute</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:56:12'>so look what else we can do in here I've got this file is structured if I want to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:56:16'>see what's in there I can walk down</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:56:23'>Cinci return but there's another thing I</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:56:28'>can do does remove dice that I have here</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:56:35'>so here I'm afraid I'll need different pictures of you so here's what I do with</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:56:41'>a picture drawing capability here's this light map if I start from work and here's the route I seem to have to go to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:56:46'>to pick up all the materials and that's my plan for getting home tonight but if</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:56:51'>I want to I can say the library what am I supposed to pick up there I can just</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:56:55'>point to that you know I see overdue books and all while there was a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:56:59'>statement there with that name wanna go back what if I once my supposed to pick</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:57:04'>up the drugstore mmm-hmm I see you've everything all right oh I've already</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:57:11'>seen that J that's too much anyway so we</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:57:18'>have this feature the structuring our material hierarchically being able to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:57:24'>move around it very well when we get a hierarchy</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:57:30'>such as I can show you here</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:57:34'>I can do things if I want to just say I'd like to interchange the Protestant</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:57:40'>camp materials bingo know if I care to look</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:57:46'>interchanging them very quickly cans are going to get interchanged with products</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:57:51'>they do it and all gets me numbered so</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:57:55'>I've ways of studying over making different views moving around going to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:57:59'>specified points okay well there's lots</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:58:03'>more but you might have been surprised by the speed of that system all right</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:58:08'>I've got a I'm sorry I have to show you a couple more things I have at the lab</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:58:14'>of the love this this is one of the great inspirations of the stuff you did at the same time I've seen that I have a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:58:19'>repertoire of different entities my character knock off a character replace</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:58:25'>the character make that P so I have</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:58:29'>entities of all sorts that I can say I want to do operations on and this basic</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:58:33'>structure that I can move over and study and get about very quickly so that is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:58:38'>the essence No</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:58:43'>that's the essence of the tool we have a lot of details your character if I hit W</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:58:54'>it'll say delete word the arrow moves back and forth to give me feedback my</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:59:00'>tracking spot changes that gives me feedback now tells me since it's an</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:59:06'>arrow that it's armed I can do something we get a lot of feedback let me restore</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:59:12'>if you like this to show you this is more normally the way we work with</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:59:16'>feedback up here okay now the thing to notice here is this is actually a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:59:21'>multiple multiple window system and each of the views had a view specs</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:59:26'>he's going to be talking about those the view specs are much more than just that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:59:30'>mucis specs to control the level of detail he sees how things are presented</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:59:36'>whether they're presented in an outline form or so forth it's something that has</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:59:41'>never been done on a micro up till now I'm shown not working that's an echo</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:59:49'>register that normally gives you the last six characters that you use the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:00:00'>last six characters and let shifts continuously so you can look up to any time and see what have I just struck and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:00:06'>that's for a good feedback here are characters that show me the different</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:00:10'>viewing parameters few specs single</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:00:19'>strokes I change those parameters now</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:00:25'>notice here that the theory of interaction here is different ankle Bart</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:00:30'>understood very early that the thing you don't want to do is go moving constantly</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:00:35'>back and forth between the pointing device and the keyboard and so there's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:00:40'>five finger keyboard he has for the left hand allows him when he moves his hands</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:00:46'>out to the outside he can do anything with a five finger keyboard that you can do with the regular keyboard just a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:00:50'>little bit slower and so when he's zooming through the system he'll just keep his hands constantly in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:00:55'>navigation mode it's only when he's typing paragraphs that he uses the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:00:59'>regular keyboard in the center it's a more efficient way of doing things than</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:01:03'>we do things today and each of those</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:01:07'>means something to me and they're being larger particular times tells me I can</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:01:11'>have very quick abbreviation for changing the view so I can say I'd like</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:01:16'>to go to produce but I'd like to go to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:01:21'>produce they get big I'd like to say one branch only and let me look just that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:01:26'>little can I see it oh I can say I'd</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:01:30'>like to see one line only I can see so</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:01:35'>these ways I move around the way I get feedback up here the way I use both</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:01:39'>hands to coordinate to tell the computer what command and what's short literals I</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:01:44'>want all perfectly designed to go together to make the repertoire I'd like</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:01:52'>to link to bill and I don't know what his terminal is right now</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:01:56'>so I have to ask for somebody connect me to him audibly audio so bro will you</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:02:02'>come in through this intercom oh I I need to know what terminal you're on</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:02:07'>though 13 okay I'd like to have him see</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:02:11'>my text and so the special thing if I label 13 we'll switch switch over so I</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:02:18'>just display he sees my text so I'll execute it and sure enough it does but</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:02:23'>what's that running around well he's looking at my text he'd like to have</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:02:27'>something to say about it so we put on a marker a tracking spot that he controls</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:02:32'>so he's sitting at Menlo Park looking at this text and he can point to it but</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:02:36'>we've carefully reserved from either right to control and operate on this somebody so what's going on here is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:02:43'>teleconferencing because this system is organized angle Bart is in San Francisco</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:02:47'>and the rest of his group is in Menlo</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:02:51'>Park but they're sharing the same screen and every time a person joins the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:02:56'>conferencing system they get a new cursor so that they can point to things</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:03:01'>too now the system becomes a shared blackboard it's more powerful in yours</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:03:07'>but we can have an argument yeah</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:03:14'>so alright so in case you haven't been</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:03:18'>listening bill we've been back to lots of examples and setting up in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:03:23'>collaboration here so that we can go on into information retrieval and we set up</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:03:30'>now audio coupling and we're both looking at the same display and that'd be very handy to work we could talk to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:03:34'>each other in point and maybe later I could hand you the chalk on this</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:03:38'>blackboard like saying here you control it but let's status mode now and add another feature that hardware-wise is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:03:43'>available to the kind of display we have I'd like to see you while I'm working on</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:03:47'>it so before I can do that I have to set</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:03:51'>up my display in a certain way</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:03:56'>set it up so I see it over like that that leaves a corner up there and I say</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:04:01'>now computer do the automatic switching that will bring in a camera picture from</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:04:06'>the camera mounted on his console such as the camera mounted on - I built</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:04:10'>that's great now we're connected audio you can see my work you can point out it</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:04:15'>and I can see your face and we can talk so let's do some collaborate I had this</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:04:21'>immensely intuitive feeling that humans are going to be able to drive a great deal of capability from this and along</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:04:27'>without it coming with very real images of my mind is sitting at a display</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:04:31'>console interacting with the computers seeing all sorts of strange symbology</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:04:35'>coming up that we could invent and develop to facilitate our thinking since</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:04:40'>we would no longer be limited to working with paper and laborious means like that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:04:44'>and other people could be sitting at similar consoles tied to the machine and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:04:48'>you could be collaborating and brand new exciting ways and that you could be just</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:04:52'>doing all sorts of things to control a computer so I've enough engineering background even though I didn't at that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:04:57'>time know how the innards of a computer work but I certainly knew that if they can read a card they can sense keys and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:05:04'>any other action you want to do and if they could drive a printer or a card punch I knew plenty electronics to know</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:05:10'>that they could put whatever you want or not display okay well that was one of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:05:15'>the great pioneers and a lot of what he predicted is going to come to pass</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:05:19'>because what he predicted was what we need and the difference between these</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:05:25'>guys in the 60s and much of what's been going on in the micro industry is that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:05:30'>these guys in the 60s seem to have these complete visions so Ivan Sutherland</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:05:35'>didn't just invent computer graphics he realized that the graphics wanted to simulate something with meaning and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:05:41'>Engelbart didn't just invent the mouse and a few things he realized that the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:05:46'>whole idea was that for people not just one person but for multiple people to be</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:05:50'>able to work together in a shared way now this is the first personal computer</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:05:56'>I designed it's called the Flex machine in 1967 a habit</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:06:00'>it was influenced a lot by Engelbart stuff turned out to be very hard to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:06:07'>in user interface like Engelbart's was actually a fairly hard one for people to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:06:11'>learn and a little bit later we saw a seymour papert's work with logo in 1968</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:06:18'>and also this system done it RAND</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:06:24'>Corporation this is about 1968 also</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:06:28'>again on a multi-million dollar machine larger than this room for a bunch of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:06:35'>Randy Kannamma that complained that they couldn't type this list of processes</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:06:41'>takes us back to the topmost level so they got really smart edit the flow</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:06:46'>diagram first we erase a flow arrow then</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:06:50'>move the connector toddled away so that we may draw a box in its place</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:06:57'>recognising his handwriting here the printing in the box is being used as</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:07:01'>commentary only in this case the box is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:07:05'>slightly too large so we may change its size we're back window control came from</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:07:09'>literally then dry flow from the connector to the box attached a decision</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:07:17'>element to the box and joy flow from it to scan we then erased the floor arrows</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:07:24'>attached to the process post new area and move the box to a new position this</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:07:34'>allows us to draw a new box</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:07:39'>then chop off its corner and label it sub scan now notice it this is the end</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:07:49'>here he goes up he sees it he has two dates but it's modeless draw flow so he</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:07:55'>can just change it goes to sub scan correct the label add a decision on sub</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:08:01'>scan so that control may flow to the connector a zero then complete the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:08:07'>diagram from scan to post well that was</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:08:11'>that this system was the one that actually changed my way of thinking about computers because this is a system</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:08:16'>life felt to me intimate I had a chance to use it for a half an hour in 1968 and I was not</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:08:22'>notice that the command there's you didn't even see a pulldown menu there</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:08:26'>every command was analogical if you want a box you drew a box itta made the box of that size if you</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:08:31'>wanted a character on the screen you drew a character you want to get rid of something you scrubbed it out the text</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:08:36'>editor in it took normal proofreading symbols so this is one of the great</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:08:42'>systems of all time that nobody has ever heard of these days called Grail</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:08:47'>graphical input language so that led to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:08:52'>this notion that the pencil was the best</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:08:56'>metaphor that thing we'd never withhold from children and that the information</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:09:01'>vehicle that Engelbart liked wasn't as powerful as this notion of giving</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:09:05'>everybody a pencil and also in 1968 the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:09:10'>first plasma panel flat screen display was done and so we realized that one of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:09:14'>the destinies of all of this stuff had to be something that looked like this we call this the Dynabook and remember that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:09:20'>it can't be just like a lap computer of today because lap computers of today</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:09:24'>don't allow you to carry other things easily it has to be really slim it has</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:09:28'>to be really light has to be really good</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:09:32'>it has to be really fast to test those ideas we do this is the forerunner of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:09:37'>the Macintosh it's a photograph about 1973 you can see the screen is about the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:09:42'>size fact is exactly the same number of pixels as the radius screen has 808 by</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:09:48'>606 and this machine was about this the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:09:53'>the computing power of the Macintosh -</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:09:57'>it's about three times or four times the computing power of the Macintosh Plus</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:10:03'>Windows you're all familiar with invented on that machine small talk was</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:10:09'>how we tried to work with creative literacy and get people to do their own</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:10:14'>applications programs especially children here's a quick example so</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:10:19'>here's a pro this is a wonderful crowd to explain this - because this is a an</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:10:23'>applications program like Mac draw</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:10:27'>so it's an object-oriented graphic system you just saw some selection</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:10:31'>handles there here's a color change you</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:10:37'>see the menu down at the bottom of the screen here's a size change now the only</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:10:45'>thing interesting about this program is it wasn't bought in a store it was done</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:10:50'>in 1975 and it was designed and implemented by a 12 year old girl after</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:10:56'>just three months of programming in small talk 72 this is an example of a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:11:02'>real live tool done by a novice programmer a child and one of the nicest</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:11:11'>things about the Macintosh - is it is the first micro computer fast enough to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:11:17'>be able to run a language like small talk so this is the kind of stuff we'll</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:11:21'>be able to do with schoolchildren now for real and in fact Apple has a an</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:11:27'>extensive project here in Los Angeles that uses powerful Macintosh's in a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:11:34'>grade one through six school so end-user</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:11:38'>programming is something that's going to happen in the next few years</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:11:43'>that's the vivarium project I'll say a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:11:47'>few words about it if I can hold your</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:11:51'>interest for another few minutes so one of the questions you might ask is how</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:11:56'>young a child can actually use these</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:12:00'>techniques and here's a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:12:05'>here's a tape that I got about five months ago from the woman who's my my</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:12:12'>accountant this little girl is the daughter of my</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:12:17'>accountant and her parents both work at</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:12:21'>home each of her parents has a Macintosh and when I found out the little girl was</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:12:26'>interested in computers I gave her an Apple to which she rejected he wanted a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:12:34'>Macintosh just like her folks and in fact we actually did I did go against my</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:12:40'>belief in market sir we tried a market survey on this 22 month old and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:12:45'>discovered that she vastly preferred Macintosh's with hard disks fact this is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:13:00'>this is what we used to call in the in the bad old days to years ago Mac pause</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:13:10'>actually it's a little surprising to child psychologists that she can watch</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:13:15'>the screen and use the mouse perform this displacement at such an early age</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:13:19'>given that it's not too surprising that she can hit visible menu items in Mac</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:13:24'>Paint here so when I saw this I wasn't</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:13:28'>you know I was intrigued but I wasn't too surprised that she could do it but</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:13:34'>what happened next really surprised me she wants a fresh sheet so she goes up</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:13:40'>to the clothes box on the window saves</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:13:45'>your file with the pop up wizard the pulldown</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:13:49'>to get a new one and she's off and rolling again</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:13:59'>that's spray painting and here's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:14:08'>something that Pia Jet Ian's say she shouldn't be able to do yet which is a reversible operation of erasing and she</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:14:16'>she thinks of the hand as animation and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:14:21'>the fact we're starting to do some animation things with her now she was in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:14:31'>this she was 22 months old when this is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:14:35'>taking course kids have this compare she's not twenty-two months now unfortunately when something like this</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:14:40'>happens you like to freeze them in stasis you know so great but after we</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:14:47'>saw that her father had taken the picture what we got as a Mac with a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:14:52'>video out and we ran a line to a monitor in a bedroom and set up another camera</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:14:56'>and then we got many hours of her interacting with the Machine and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:15:00'>determined that she was able to handle about 75% of the commands and the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:15:04'>pull-downs consistently and not just a Mac paint</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:15:08'>but in several systems and in her</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:15:13'>obvious interest in animation is something that we're planning on doing something about another thing that's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:15:18'>interesting is the intriguing possibility that if the Macintosh</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:15:23'>interface is the first interface that reaches she was actually able to use the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:15:27'>mouse more jointly than she can use a crayon at this age and it raises the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:15:33'>possibility of building an ant question-answering system for a child</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:15:37'>aged 3 to 6 they have lots of questions</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:15:41'>then to allow them to ask and questions and get answers without having to use an</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:15:45'>adult as an intermediary and that's something that I'm very interested in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:15:49'>but I fear it may change the sociology of the home</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:15:56'>maybe for the better so very quickly</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:16:00'>here's this this project that we're doing in Los Angeles very similar to the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:16:06'>one we did at Parc except at Parc we're asking the question what would it be</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:16:10'>like for novice programmers especially children to do their own applications</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:16:14'>programs and here in the vivarium project we're asking the question what</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:16:19'>would it be like for novice programmers especially children to do their own</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:16:23'>artificial intelligence programming so we want to know something fundamentally</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:16:28'>new about what it means to program up mentalities and the way we're asking</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:16:34'>that question is to set up a forcing function so we have this wonderful</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:16:39'>School in Los Angeles called the open magnet school all 226 children and this</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:16:46'>is actually an inner-city school though it doesn't look like it because this is part of their asphalt playground that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:16:52'>they tore up to make a garden where the 2nd and 3rd graders learn about biology</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:16:56'>by actually growing things this is sort of the saran-wrap free system of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:17:01'>education food doesn't come in packaged</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:17:05'>in saran wrap here's a typical thing that we do in the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:17:10'>vivarium is the children might study an ocean ecology like a tide pool lots of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:17:15'>different animals and plants interacting they might get interested in fish and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:17:20'>besides this drawing fish we would like to give them some magic computer stuff</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:17:26'>like mac draw stuff that they can mold</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:17:30'>use distortions like Darcy Thompson showed at the turn of the century that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:17:34'>related species are have related body plans conformal mappings can be made</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:17:40'>from one end to the other animate the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:17:44'>fish and most importantly give the fish behavior actually program up a mentality</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:17:49'>of the fish based on their observations of what fish do and for that we have to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:17:55'>invent lots of things we want to have multiple points of view like here's one</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:17:59'>from the fish's point of view who want to see the world from the frogs point of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:18:03'>view from the herons point of view and from all the points of view simultaneously</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:18:07'>because it's multiple points of view member points of view are worth ad IQ</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:18:12'>points multiple points of view are how you actually learn and we want the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:18:18'>graphics to look something like this this is a scene from Bambi and we're</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:18:24'>privileged to have with us the person who did Bambi Frank Thomas the old</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:18:28'>Disney animator who is one of the advisers on this project and is in the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:18:32'>process of teaching every child in the school how to animate here's another</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:18:37'>example a scene from Fantasia in which every frame was airbrushed by hand okay</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:18:43'>only computers this this kind of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:18:47'>animation will never again be done by hand only computers can bring this level</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:18:52'>of aesthetics and here's an example and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:18:56'>this to be able to do this in real time takes about ten times the power of the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:19:00'>of the Macintosh - so about 10 -</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:19:08'>somewhere between 10 and 30 myths and you notice it's sort of hard to see</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:19:12'>what's going on now to turn the Sun on like this the very same scene takes on</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:19:20'>the order of a hundred nips now this is done by Bob Abel and it's done very</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:19:26'>slowly this is done on a backs about the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:19:33'>about the same power to do this on a macintosh ii would take about twenty or</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:19:38'>thirty minutes a frame but it's a very nice metaphor to make something alive</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:19:44'>out of just raw material so the problem</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:19:49'>with waiting twenty and thirty minutes a frame is they probably notice that children are very real-time devices</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:19:58'>and so in order to to actually get</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:20:03'>something that's closer to their rates of speed we use this Evans & Sutherland</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:20:07'>flight simulator this is real-time computer graphics 60 frames a second and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:20:12'>there's a human pilot flying this plane the system does not know where he is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:20:17'>going to go wherever he goes it has to show him this planetoid size database</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:20:24'>you get an idea of what the state-of-the-art this is the state-of-the-art in real-time computer</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:20:29'>graphics you can get an idea of look at</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:20:33'>the sky look at the leaves in the trees so the modeling is at a very high level</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:20:39'>of detail and this system is able to show these simulations from multiple</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:20:46'>points of view simultaneously</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:20:52'>this is a Harrier Jump Jet</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:21:02'>so this is the this is the equivalent so</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:21:06'>we're seeing this from about a hundred feet off the ground and simultaneously</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:21:11'>here's a ground level view</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:21:26'>now think of it this is the equivalent of those million-dollar computers in the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:21:30'>60s that sketchpad and Grail we're done on and here's a third simultaneous view</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:21:38'>from the cockpit of the second plane so</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:21:42'>of course we weren't that interested in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:21:46'>marine jump jets as we've been talking</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:21:52'>about fish so we took our Disney animators and a couple of Apple people</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:21:56'>and we went off to Evans & Sutherland in Salt Lake City to see if we could do a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:22:00'>thousand miles of Australian Barrier Reef and some swimming things and Disney</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:22:06'>animators have this way of turning everything into a character and one of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:22:15'>the things that's not been done successfully in real time graphics is sinuous motion so we got very interested</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:22:21'>in how fish moved their tails and skull</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:22:26'>their way through the water so we did lots of drawings of that and of course</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:22:33'>sharks have a sort of a evil scanning eye which we put in so the result of one</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:22:39'>long weekend with lots of cold pizza and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:22:45'>this several million dollar machine is this</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:24:31'>so what you saw there was would be is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:24:36'>about somewhere between 100 and 150 million instructions per second to do</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:24:41'>that in real time or about 50 McIntosh</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:24:45'>two equivalents of computing now 50 is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:24:50'>an interesting number because that first machine I showed you at Xerox the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:24:55'>forerunner of the Macintosh was exactly 50 times as fast as a console on a PDP</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:25:01'>10 time sharing system we forget what it</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:25:05'>was like so many years ago it was incredibly slow to do computation</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:25:10'>interactive computation back in the late 60s and early 70s and the real</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:25:16'>breakthrough at Xerox PARC was that factor of 50 that made everything</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:25:22'>different the breakthrough that we have today in the Macintosh 2 was a factor of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:25:28'>50 over the way people did things 20 years ago and another factor of 50 is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:25:33'>yet to come in the next few years the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:25:37'>most important thing about the 3d graphic stuff is that it has not been</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:25:42'>possible to make a real-time system like this and anything smaller than a couple</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:25:47'>of full racks of equipment because of the way packaging of chips has gone this</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:25:53'>is one of these things that's going to go through an immense step function of several orders of magnitude change in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:25:59'>cost performance just in the next few years because the level of integration</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:26:04'>of chips is quivering on the edge for being able to package a system like that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:26:08'>on a one or two cards that would fit inside a Macintosh to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:26:17'>don't need 50 slots so a lot of them a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:26:22'>lot of it I guess I should close this off with my favorite way of thinking</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:26:27'>about this is that the Greeks held that the visual arts were the imitation of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:26:32'>life but the computer arts in which we're all interested are the imitation</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:26:36'>of creation itself and Purvi see the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:26:40'>Italian philosopher said to know the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:26:44'>world one must construct it and it's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:26:48'>this through this constructive process the children actually learn computers</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:26:52'>are the best construction material that we've ever come up with outside of our</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:26:56'>own brains I see them as an amplifier to the things that we bring when we sit</subtitle>
<subtitle id='01:27:02'>down in front of the machine an amplifier not a prosthetic thank you</subtitle>
<subtitle id='5226'>very much </subtitle>