View source for A Vision of New Age with Alan Kay (1988)

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<subtitle id='00:00:00'> [Applause]</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:00:06'>well when I said the title as a little</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:00:10'>bit concerned because in Kevin's massage</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:00:15'>and channeling I was willing to say</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:00:20'>something about massage therapy but I've never tried channeling I asked me what</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:00:26'>do you do fellow I've never known quite the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:00:30'>cartoon a couple of weeks they had a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:00:34'>bunch of people vaguely dressed as</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:00:38'>standing around and one was another this</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:00:42'>is Alan mr. pure be it's a reality and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:00:48'>transcendent truth in order to make a buck probably the second bit world when</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:01:03'>they just funds you well you know in a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:01:11'>short talk like this try and broad-brush</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:01:16'>to my future and why ocean of G's of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:01:31'>representing things sending message all</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:01:37'>there and why grand collision in the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:01:42'>midst of right now the way with the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:01:46'>medium is going to be at least as important as the way the medium</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:01:50'>communicates with us and by that I mean that what's one of the things that is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:01:55'>happening the media is fairly passive</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:01:59'>stuff and very soon for a lot of us now it's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:02:07'>already a very strong what we call the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:02:11'>media are going to stop that is going to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:02:17'>interact with us directly McLuhan who is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:02:21'>sort of the great early warning system for all of this stuff said that man is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:02:27'>the animal that learned to shape tools and then the tools shaped man and we're</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:02:35'>very aware of the first part of ourselves as being tool shapers but</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:02:39'>we're very unaware of how the tools come back and shape us now when we're looking</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:02:47'>ahead into the future it's fairly easy to predict uninteresting things these</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:02:52'>are the kinds of things that most marketing people predict there's all the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:02:56'>things that actually aren't going to be very important because they're</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:03:00'>extracting from the present past the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:03:06'>most important thing about the future I think for most people are what are those things that aren't easily predictable</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:03:12'>that are going to affect us very deeply for instance 10 years ago most people in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:03:20'>your industry did not think heavily about using computers because where they</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:03:27'>were and where you were we're very far apart now computers are not being just</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:03:33'>being used as word processors but people are doing their advertising on them most</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:03:38'>of the special effects are being done using computers what's next well I think</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:03:44'>part of it part of this grand collision is going to include an enormous</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:03:48'>communications net that is just starting to be set up now very hard to see in the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:03:53'>United States but much easier to see if you go to Europe or Japan that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:03:57'>communications net is going to take us from a situation where we use computers</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:02'>from the outside to a situation where in effect we will be living inside of one</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:07'>vast computer and that sounds awful</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:11'>but in fact we already live inside of a number of grids one of which you have</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:17'>created we live inside a power grid now that we wouldn't know what to do with if</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:22'>it were taken away we live inside of communications grid created by you</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:26'>people and soon we're going to be living inside of an information and knowledge</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:30'>grid such that wherever we go we're always going to be in contact with power</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:36'>to make things happen communication to get people to do things</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:41'>and ways of processing the information that comes around now if we take a look</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:47'>at the normal ways of predicting the future we come up with some very funny</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:51'>predictions one of my favorite ones is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:04:55'>can imagine somebody in 1903 saying you</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:01'>know electric motors are a wonderful thing every home should have one that conjures</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:07'>up visions to me of a vast electric motor up in the attic of a house with belts running down from it all over the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:13'>house to drive the different appliances because electric motors back then we're</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:17'>big and if you wanted to share one you had to do it mechanically whereas today the electric motors in a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:23'>house probably number somewhere between 50 and 100 and none of them are visible</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:28'>so a better prediction for where computers are going to go came from my</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:34'>friend Gordon Bell who was the main designer for Digital Equipment Corporation for many years he said in 15</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:40'>years computers are just going to be bumps and cables we won't see them well</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:47'>they'll be part of this fabric that we're going to be living in another</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:52'>interesting example is a survey the railroads did almost 75 years ago to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:05:58'>predict the future and they decided that in the future of the past 1950s 1980s or</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:07'>so that there are three things that were abundantly clear one was that there</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:11'>would be railroads still by that time that the railroads would run a lot</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:16'>faster than they did back in 1918</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:21'>and that rail transportation would always be less expensive than any other</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:27'>transfer form of transportation including airplanes and in fact all</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:32'>three of those predictions came true there are railroads around today they</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:37'>run faster than they used to and railroad transportation is still less</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:41'>expensive than airplane transportation the only thing they didn't think to ask</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:46'>was whether they were still going to be in business by 1988 and the answer is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:52'>they almost aren't because in fact cost was not the driving thing that put the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:06:58'>the airplane ahead and the railroads</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:02'>behind but value was and we're going to explore that a little bit now we are</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:08'>just in the computer business have</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:12'>witnessed a transition from sort of the first age of computing into the second</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:17'>age of computing and I'm going to talk to you a little bit about the Third Age of computing which is going to come</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:21'>about sort of around 1995 but just to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:25'>give you a feeling the first age of computing the computers existed in big</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:33'>what we used to call the glass houses these are big rooms with glass walls and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:38'>people walking around in white coats and lots of air conditioning so that the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:42'>millions of instructions per second that you wanted to use from a computer were</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:46'>existed centrally and the big revolution that just happened put all of those</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:52'>millions of instructions per deck per second on a single person's desk and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:07:58'>seven years from now the millions of instructions for person will be in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:08:03'>people's pockets or here in California woven into our t-shirts</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:08:09'>that change is going to be just as profound as the one we're just going</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:08:14'>through in the 60s and 70s the user was told what to do by the people who owned</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:08:19'>the computer when they could submit their jobs when they could pick them up in the revolution that we're just in now</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:08:26'>the user does it when they want to huge change in the 90s the user is going to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:08:33'>delegate much of what they want to do to computer processes that will carry it</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:08:37'>out for him in the 60s and 70s we were</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:08:41'>unconnected the computers were big standalone things here in the 80s we're</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:08:47'>getting connected up and the big issue in the 90s is going to be transparency</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:08:54'>because you don't want to be able to see the connections you shouldn't have to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:08:58'>feel the telephone system now we we saw</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:02'>that same thing happened with the telephone system as we went from the 50s to the 60s and to the 70s when we went</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:08'>from two automatic dialing and especially automatic long-distance and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:12'>overseas calls where now we may have to dial a few more digits but we don't feel</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:18'>that there's any network there whatsoever we don't have to go through</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:22'>people most of the time we don't have to worry about how far the the distance is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:27'>the way we interacted with computers in the 60s and 70s was remember and type</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:34'>remember in type big thick manuals with all of the different commands in them</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:39'>the revolution now is see end point</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:43'>Macintosh is sort of the most famous example of that and it's being well</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:47'>imitated at this point in fact the joke in Silicon Valley right now is that the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:09:52'>the letters IBM stand for I'm building a Macintosh</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:00'>[Applause] and from seeing point that we're</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:05'>enjoying right now the metaphor in the 90s will be asked and tell so we will be</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:12'>we will be shifting our way of dealing</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:16'>with the machine we had mechanical printing in the 60s</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:21'>and 70s in the 1980s we have laser printing high-resolution laser printing</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:26'>in the 90s the late 90s will have no printing printing is one of the things</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:31'>that is destined to go away and it will go away as soon as everybody has their</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:35'>own little machine that is so portable</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:39'>they can carry other things too in other words 0.5 herniation per block is not</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:44'>portability but as soon as we have that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:48'>thing that can keep the information and knowledge alive structured and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:54'>manipulable it will immediately become more valuable than paper because paper</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:10:58'>after wall is just a way of embalming knowledge in a way that so you can't do</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:11:03'>anything but look at it afterwards it's interesting it's a full circle because</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:11:09'>Socrates complained in one of the Platonic dialogues was he had a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:11:14'>complaint about writing that we often voice against television he said writing</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:11:20'>forces you to follow an argument rather than participate in it so he thought</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:11:26'>writing was incredibly alienating technology and in fact we're just about</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:11:31'>ready to swing back into a form of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:11:35'>communication in which we can participate directly as well as simply</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:11:39'>having to follow the points of others professional professional programmers</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:11:44'>did all of the programming in the 60s and 70s in the era when now lots of the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:11:50'>programming is done by experienced users and the majority of the programming in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:11:55'>the 90s will be done end users that's gonna be an enormous</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:12:01'>change and finally the point of this whole conference I think is that the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:12:06'>stuff we fooled around with in computers in the 60s and 70s were texts and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:12:11'>numbers now we're doing graphical icons</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:12:15'>graphics and icons and in the 90s it's going to be all media the reason for</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:12:22'>this is that all of the media that we've ever invented on earth that can be simulated to a very high degree of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:12:28'>precision on the computer and so for most practical purposes and particularly</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:12:33'>for purposes that don't require great art most of that media is going to be</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:12:39'>replaced sometimes to the detriment of our ability to appreciable is to think</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:12:55'>about the three ways people choose to invent things</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:12:59'>the first two are kind of mundane the first one is the brainstorming approach</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:03'>which is essentially getting everything you know in a single room squishing it</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:08'>together painting it and trying to sell it and you can invent things that way</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:13'>lots of stuff in the broadcast industry</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:17'>I understand is invented that way my favorite example is if you take all of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:21'>the obnoxious things in a 12 year olds room and concatenate them together you</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:27'>wind up with a boombox ghettoblaster which you can sell lots of so you can</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:33'>come up with products that way better way is the way they tell you in the MBA</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:40'>books which is fine to need and fill it go out and see what people want and do</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:47'>something that's kind of a goal-oriented approach and the problem with that is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:51'>when you go out and ask people they usually want something that's 10% faster 10% more features and 10% cheaper than</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:13:59'>what they already have it's very very difficult this is one of the reasons why</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:14:03'>the Japanese are beating our brains in because they don't do market surveys what they do instead is test marketing</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:14:09'>of products that they've thought of them sells then they want to see how people</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:14:13'>like them after they see them which is a much much better way of doing it because</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:14:17'>it leads us to the third way of inventing thing things and that is come</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:14:22'>up with something that creates a need only it can fill all the big hitters in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:14:29'>the twentieth century have been of that kind the Xerox machine the telephone</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:14:33'>itself I have the minutes of an 1895</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:14:37'>Western Union Telegraph Board meeting there's a fact there's a book of such</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:14:43'>famous you know that the book called famous last words that my favorite one</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:14:49'>from there is the the English explorer in Africa saying nonsense they couldn't</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:14:54'>hit an elephant at this dis</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:00'>and that's what's happened to a lot of corporations in this century Western</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:05'>unions quote that was particularly memorable about when they were thinking about investing in the telephone was no</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:11'>sane person would conduct business through such a contrivance the reason</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:17'>they believe that is that the telegraph in 1895 produced a written record of the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:22'>transaction and they thought that was just the most fantastic way of doing business and they forgot that it was</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:27'>inconvenient and the telephone just blew them out of the water by going back to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:33'>something more primitive and even in some sense less businesslike but much</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:37'>more convenient much more natural to use now when I think about predicting the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:43'>future I have four rules of thumb that I</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:48'>use when I think about it and the first one is very simple and direct and it</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:52'>came about during the early days of the Xerox Palo Alto Research Center which</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:15:58'>was in Palo Alto was as far away from the corporate headquarters in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:02'>Connecticut as you could possibly be and still be on the continental US and for</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:09'>some reason we had lots of executives who would come out and visit us in January in February we can never figure</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:14'>in that out but when we could get these guys off the courts they would come into</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:19'>the lab and look to see what we were</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:23'>doing and pester us about the future they would say what's going to happen to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:28'>us what's the future going to do how can we defend about it and I finally got so</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:32'>pissed off that I said to one of these guys look the best way to predict the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:36'>future is to invent it let's not worry about what the other guys are going to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:40'>do let's come up with a vision this is the century within which if you have a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:44'>vision the technologies are there to realize it if you don't break too many</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:48'>of Newton's laws in the in the process and that took them aback is the idea of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:54'>being proactive about the future was something that never had occurred to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:16:58'>them they were caretakers thinking about defending against all these other people</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:04'>that were going to be doing interesting things in the in the future so the best</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:08'>way to predict it is to invent it the second way</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:12'>to think about the futures to realize that it takes at least 10 years to get</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:17'>something out of a research lab into commercial life and often it takes as</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:21'>long as 20 so almost every technology that's going to affect you in the next</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:25'>five to seven years is in somebody's laboratory right now and simply paying</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:31'>attention to what people at Bell Labs and MIT and Carnegie Mellon and Stanford</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:36'>and so forth are doing will give you a tremendous leap forward on thinking</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:43'>about what's going to happen you have to sort of decide which ones are probably</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:47'>going to make it and which ones aren't but it still gives you the panorama of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:51'>what's going to happen that's not the same as extrapolating from the present because those technologies aren't in the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:17:56'>present but it it's a way of selectively</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:00'>extrapolating from by going to the places where the technology is sourced</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:06'>third way is to ask whether something</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:10'>that couldn't possibly be a factor in the future could be one if you simply</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:15'>change the context and a couple of good</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:21'>lines there McLuhan said I don't know</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:25'>who discovered water but it wasn't a fish so and what he meant by that is if</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:30'>you're embedded in a context or a particular way of thinking for all your life you're not even aware of it you</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:35'>don't know that you have blinders on and simply finding a way of rotating the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:39'>context or getting into some other context can make an enormous difference</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:43'>so for instance when a few years ago some of us predicted that desktop</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:48'>publishing was going to be the next multi-billion dollar business</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:52'>we got an enormous amount of flack from</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:18:56'>the media because they said look at the way electronic publishing is being done</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:19:00'>now as hundreds of people hunched over vt100 terminals with thick manuals and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:19:06'>only being able to get proofs every 30 minutes from this is ridiculous no</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:19:10'>conceivable extrapolation that would</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:19:14'>allow this technology to go on people's desks and the answer is yes that's right</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:19:19'>no conceivable extrapolation but in fact a whole change of context</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:19:24'>like going instead of doing things by remote control going to a user interface</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:19:30'>that shows you what's going to happen as you make each change and throwing in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:19:34'>another few tricks let the Japanese invent cheap laser printing and all of a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:19:41'>sudden desktop publishing this last year in 87 was about a four and a half</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:19:46'>billion dollar business in the US alone and that went from zero just a few years</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:19:52'>before there was there are no revenues from desktop publishing in 1985 so what</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:00'>I'm saying is that these changes happen explosively when something important</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:06'>changes and you can go right back to something that looks completely intractable and just by changing the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:12'>point of view you can make it different just as what happened when we went from</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:16'>Roman numerals to Arabic notation you</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:20'>had to be a genius in 60 BC Rome to multiply two numbers together because</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:25'>only geniuses could remember all the partial products that Roman numerals</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:29'>generated now any of us today although according to USA Today only half of us</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:35'>today can actually multiply that's still better than the Romans</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:42'>you see that question and there's unbelievable apparently 51.5% of American teenagers</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:50'>could not tell that 87% of 10 was less</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:54'>than 10</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:20:58'>that is pretty unbelievable but still changing our representations can help</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:21:04'>and the motto there is point of view is worth ad IQ points you can simply find</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:21:10'>the point of view in which week thinking can produce powerful results you're in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:21:15'>great shape and then finally I think the big driver for this idea of create</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:21:21'>something that creates a need only it can fill comes from out of a story that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:21:28'>was current around Xerox when I first went there in the early 70s and this is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:21:33'>the story told in John destler's book des hour was a hey Lloyd vice-president</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:21:39'>back in the days before it became Xerox and his book was called my years with</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:21:44'>Xerox the billions nobody wanted and it's a great book to read about how</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:21:49'>people almost successfully fight the future every time it's presented to them</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:21:54'>reminds me of McLuhan's great line says innovation for the holders of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:21:59'>conventional wisdom is not novelty but annihilation and the story he tells is a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:06'>perfect example of that the 1956 they had come up with the first practical</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:13'>plain paper copier which was called the 914 many of us in the room are old</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:19'>enough to remember that machine and they didn't have enough money at Haloid to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:25'>develop factories and to market the machine so they took it down the road</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:29'>from Rochester to IBM and set the IBM</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:33'>here take this machine build factories go out and sell it we just wanted a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:37'>modest royalty and IBM did what it most</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:41'>large companies do when they don't know what to do which is to go out and hire</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:45'>some consultants and my friend Mike Hammer is a professor</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:51'>at MIT has a great definition of consultants he says consultant is a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:22:55'>person who knows a hundred ways to make love but doesn't have a girlfriend my</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:23:07'>favorite definition eye consultant jokes ism so what's the difference between a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:23:14'>Boy Scout Troop and the consulting firm the Boy Scout Troop has adult leadership</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:23:18'>[Laughter] my favorite one is the consultant steals</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:23:24'>from the smart and sells to the stupid</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:23:28'>but anyway the consulting firm that IBM was using back then I think this is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:23:32'>their last venture with IBM was Arthur D little in Cambridge Mass and Arthur T</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:23:37'>little did a bang-up study that lasted more than a year that came up with six</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:23:42'>inches thick of paper conclusively proving there was no market for plain</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:23:47'>paper copying and the proof rested on</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:23:51'>two main bases the first was that there was no copy volume people weren't</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:23:56'>copying right so that extrapolation didn't get</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:03'>you anywhere it's people since people weren't copying and the other one was is that plain</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:08'>paper copying it was about ten times as expensive as the a B dick mimeograph</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:13'>process and so that the our thirty</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:17'>little people concluded there was a cost problem and IBM after all of this</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:22'>foot-dragging finally turned down the hey Lloyd people and this got them so</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:27'>angry that they went out and raised the money for their first factory using</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:31'>their life insurance for security and that was about a hundred and ninety billion dollars ago that all that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:36'>happened now that's a perfect example of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:40'>a number of things one of them is that IBM simply couldn't understand that this</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:47'>thing was an amplifier for one of the most important human traits which is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:52'>communications we are communications junkies we don't know how to be Hermits</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:24:58'>every time somebody has come along with the communications amplifier and the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:02'>airplane is one of them people have gone after it even though it has hosted more</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:07'>on almost every case than what has been driven out by it so an amplifier for a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:14'>deep human trait is one of the ways of making something that creates a need</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:19'>only it can fill and there have been many many of them in this century</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:23'>personal computer was one of them people predicted against it the HP pocket</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:29'>calculator was another favorite one that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:33'>HP marketing people said nobody will do it because of course nobody is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:37'>calculating and so forth and fortunately Bill Hewlett the Hewlett and Hewlett</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:43'>Packard wanted one really so badly he could taste it in fact he gave the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:48'>Hewlett Packard engineers one of his shirts because he wanted that calculator</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:53'>to be able to fit in that shirt pocket and I know some of the people who built</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:25:58'>that calculator and there are stories of midnight tailoring sessions [Laughter]</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:07'>and they definitely gave him a calculator that would fit in his shirt</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:11'>pocket so this idea of making something</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:19'>that amplifies a basic human trait is tremendously important your entire</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:24'>industry is based on it that's what I call fantasy amplifier now I have to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:30'>tell people that fantasy is the California word for simulation because</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:36'>fantasy extends beyond just the idea of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:40'>putting ourselves in human situations</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:45'>that are safe and interesting and very</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:49'>intriguing it also has to do with all the other things that we use santé</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:53'>fantasy for science is all about fantasy because it's a way of creating models</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:26:59'>and dealing with those models as though we're dealing with the real world we're</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:04'>just being as fantastic as anybody else and when we think about human traits we</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:11'>have to think about the way people have tried to extend themselves over the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:15'>centuries I think there are two main ways the first way is what I call the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:19'>amplifying tools way amplifying tool</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:23'>being like a lever or a wheel or it could be non-physical it could be like</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:28'>language or mathematics or a new number system all of these things are</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:33'>manipulative they all have the ability</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:37'>to manipulate something better a math sounds very abstract but in fact what</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:42'>math is as a way of making the abstract concrete so it can be manipulated so the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:47'>M word for this first kind of human extension is manipulation then there's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:53'>another way that we have extended</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:27:58'>ourselves over the centuries and that is what Lewis Mumford calls Gould cloning</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:03'>Gould cloning or the sometimes calls at the mega machine the mega machine is a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:08'>machine in which all of its constituent parts are made up of people so every</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:13'>time we form a society or a group or a business or a company or a country</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:17'>we're making a mega machine it's an entity that has fewer goals than it has</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:22'>participants or if it doesn't it doesn't last for long so one of the things that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:27'>we found is a way of extending ourselves is ways of convincing other people to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:31'>take on our goal structure so we can have hundreds and thousands millions all</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:36'>devoted to a single end and the M word</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:40'>for this kind of extension is called management and I want to explore both of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:47'>those and to give you a an example of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:53'>those I'd like to do two things if we can have the lights up for for just a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:28:57'>minute sort of two interesting</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:29:02'>experiments to do these have to do with</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:29:06'>understanding something about the human mind of how different the human mind</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:29:12'>actually is from our common sense</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:29:16'>versions of it so the first thing I what I'd like everybody to do is without</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:29:20'>poking the person in front of you is if you can hold up your arm like this with</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:29:24'>your thumb up and then put your other thumb about half as close to halfway in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:29:29'>between as you can and just compare the sizes of those two thumbs okay yeah one</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:29:39'>smaller now when you when you look at it</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:29:43'>question is how much smaller most people will say that the further one away is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:29:48'>about 80% the size or so right now on</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:29:54'>your retina the image of that far away</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:29:58'>thumb is exactly 1/2 the size of the one</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:03'>that is close to you so when you hold it up like that it should look like a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:07'>pencil I'll try it with a couple of quarters also but doesn't look like a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:13'>pencil and with the court when you do with the quarters the further away quarter doesn't look like a dime and the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:19'>reason is that what you're perceiving when you look with your eyes is not what</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:25'>your eyes see at all but in fact what you're perceiving is a dining</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:29'>a McCree construction a constrained</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:33'>hallucination of the input that you're</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:37'>taking in from the world most people think that seeing is believing but in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:42'>fact it's believing is seeing what you believe is what you see and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:48'>different people on earth believe different things and then they see different things okay we take the lights</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:52'>down so that's the first big idea about</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:30:58'>human mentalities is that we're one step</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:02'>removed from the objective world because we live in a construction this is one of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:07'>the reasons we love movies and so forth</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:11'>because they're just a simpler extension of the fantasies that we already live in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:16'>now the other example I'm going to show you</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:21'>if we can go to the first slide and look</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:27'>at this slide and see if you can see what's wrong with this slide who sees</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:33'>mouth is upside down and what else the eyes are upside down okay so let me give</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:40'>you an English sentence that tells you exactly what has been done to this slide</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:44'>what we've done is we've taken a picture of a young girl extracted her eyes and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:49'>mouth turned them upside down put them back in with an airbrush and then turned</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:31:55'>the entire picture upside down so that's the way you would have this information explained to you in school by an English</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:32:01'>sentence but now let's take a look and see what it looks like writes it up you</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:32:05'>should be completely prepared for it so let's go to the next one</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:32:13'>now I'm gonna I'm gonna let's go to the next one have to do the X I've</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:32:18'>discovered nobody will listen to me when it's on the other way</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:32:28'>now this is the best way I know of illustrating to a large audience how</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:32:34'>different the different channels of information that that we take in and the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:32:39'>different parts of the brain that the information goes to actually are that in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:32:45'>fact not only is believing seeing but the we now can see that there are</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:32:51'>different reactions first to an English sentence and then to a picture of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:32:55'>exactly the same thing and now we want to try and explain what's actually</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:01'>fooling the visual system here the answer is known on this particular</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:06'>effect physiologically that on the under right hand side of the brain where we do</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:11'>face recognition there are two pieces of brain tissue about an inch apart and one</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:17'>of them is an expert at face like things it's a thing that allows you to see</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:21'>faces and Twilight in clouds that scares children with menacing shadows and so</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:27'>forth and here it's reporting an upside-down face like thing about an</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:32'>inch away is another piece of brain tissue that is an expert only on eyes</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:39'>and mouth and what it's reporting is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:43'>that's a good-looking mouth and those are okay eyes and there's no real</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:47'>dissonance between those two reports those pieces of brain tissue are two</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:52'>little separate mentalities going about their business and simply reporting up</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:33:57'>to a higher level and there's no conflict between them when we go to the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:34:02'>next thing though what's what's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:34:06'>happening is that the face recognizer is saying that's a right-side up face like</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:34:10'>thing and the eyes and mouth guy is saying something is terribly wrong here</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:34:15'>[Laughter]</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:34:22'>you can imagine why nature might have</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:34:26'>wanted you to be startled by seeing a face like this up close because it might mean you're going to die in the next 10</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:34:31'>seconds</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:34:37'>in fact this is not a learned response this is built into every mammal by our</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:34:44'>genes so if you try this experiment out on a dog I suggest you pick a small one</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:34:57'>okay so that's the second big idea about</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:01'>human mentalities is that the mentalities aren't unitary so two big</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:05'>ideas are that we basically live in a fantasy world a fantasy world so tenuous</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:12'>that eight hours in an isolation tank will cause us to start hallucinating we</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:16'>use that word as though it's something we aren't doing all the time in fact what we're doing in reality is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:21'>hallucinating but we have unless we're completely paranoid schizophrenic</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:26'>we have evidence from the outside to try</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:30'>and straighten up our hallucination as much as possible as we go through the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:34'>day deprive us of reality for eight hours and the brain goes off in its own</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:39'>because the brain can't know from birth what the world is actually like there</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:45'>isn't enough information in human DNA then the second idea is because it's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:49'>very complicated the mentalities actually broken up into something much</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:53'>more like a patchwork quilt and there are mechanisms that very cleverly jump</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:35:58'>us from one patch to another without seeing the seams most of the time until</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:02'>I show a demonstration like this that actually exposes the seams and there are</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:06'>many others so with those two ideas in a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:11'>way of thinking about human mentality is possible to design some very powerful</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:15'>ways of communicating with computers we take all of the ideas that I mentioned</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:20'>up to now let's take a look at two way</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:24'>these two ways of extending the first of doing a manipulative tool and let's take</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:29'>a look at the first videotape so this is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:35'>a 22-month year-old young girl two months shy of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:40'>her second birthday her mother is my accountant and both of her mother and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:45'>father work at home</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:49'>each of her parents has a Macintosh so she has never lived in a world that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:53'>wasn't densely populated by Macintosh's when I found she was interested in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:36:58'>computers I gave her an Apple to which she</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:37:02'>rejected</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:37:07'>she wanted a Mac just like her folks remember technology is all that stuff</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:37:13'>that wasn't around when you were born when we grew up we didn't think pencils</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:37:17'>and watches and so forth were technology she doesn't think the Mac is technology</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:37:21'>she thinks it's just material and in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:37:25'>fact we discovered that she vastly prefers personal computers with installed hard disks</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:37:34'>so given all that it's not too surprising that because she's in a very</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:37:41'>muscular manipulative stage of life it's not too surprising that she can hit</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:37:47'>visible come in menu commands here in macpaint so when I saw this I was</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:37:51'>intrigued by it but I wasn't till too amazed till I saw what happened next she</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:37:56'>wants a clean sheet of paper so she goes to the clothes box on the window saves</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:02'>her old drawing with a pop-up and goes</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:06'>to the pulldown to get a new one and she's off and rolling again okay that's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:15'>enough of that and that user interface that we designed</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:25'>at Xerox PARC was designed for children but not this not this young and we since</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:32'>have taken many hours of video tape of her using the Mac and discovered she's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:36'>about 70% literate in the entire Macintosh user interface that means she</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:42'>can start up any application including a complicated one like page maker make</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:47'>some marks print out stuff save her work</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:51'>get multiple windows and all of those things about 70% of the standard</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:38:56'>repertoire on any any Mac application so</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:00'>here's an example of point of view is worth ad IQ points by simply coming up</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:05'>with a user interface that is much more directed directly connected to the human</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:10'>psyche not only she but people of all</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:14'>ages all of a sudden find themselves acting like computer experts where they</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:18'>didn't think they could do it at all before simple change of representation</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:23'>does that now let's look at the other side the management side and think about</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:29'>what that might mean what does goal cloning mean in the context of a computer well it means</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:34'>something like having an entity maybe</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:41'>not totally intelligent I mean the simplest agent a person could have at</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:45'>home I a puppy that's trained to go get the newspaper every morning and nine times</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:50'>out of ten is able to do it and you feel good about it and because because you</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:54'>don't expect the puppy to do relativistic physics you're quite happy</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:39:59'>with the puppy just getting the newspaper so this idea of agents of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:03'>having computer processes that can help you in a number of ways especially when</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:08'>there is an enormous number of information such as we have now in the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:13'>Library of Congress and such as we will have with the networking of the all of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:18'>the media over the next few years we're going to start to need agents so this</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:23'>next tape I'm going to show is set</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:27'>starts in 1988 with a hyper card information system that we did for ABC</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:32'>TV for the Winter Olympics and they use this for all of their facts and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:37'>information in Calgary and then what we</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:42'>do is we take a jump from 1988 to the 1992 Winter Olympics and see what this</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:50'>fusion of media new user interface techniques and so forth might might</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:55'>bring for it so this is a four year ahead look in the future we did it for</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:40:59'>John Sculley the CEO of Apple and he's the one who narrates it so let's run that number two</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:05'>actually we created this hyper card stack as a guide to the 1988 Winter</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:11'>Olympics ABC television used to let their guests call up information about</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:16'>the various events it begins with this animation here running in real-time on a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:22'>Macintosh - as soon as someone clicks the mouse it dissolves to a map of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:28'>Calgary if you click on any Olympic site</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:32'>you see a list of the events scheduled for that site you can get more</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:37'>information about any event by clicking on the name let's say Ski Jumping you</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:43'>can get background information about that sport you can branch back to the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:48'>list of events or the main map and then</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:52'>continue exploring here at the University of Calgary I see</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:41:56'>the figure skating events are running now that's a sport my family's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:00'>interested in so I'd like to learn more about it the previous Winter Olympics</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:05'>took place at Sarajevo in 1984 when Macintosh was barely a month old</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:12'>imagine what Macintosh together with hypercard will allow us to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:16'>do in another four years by the time of the next Olympics</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:23'>we will require powerful techniques to help us find and manipulate volumes of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:27'>images text music video and applications</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:32'>we might by that time see the beginnings of intelligent agents or perhaps by then</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:37'>there'll be only semi-intelligent Phil</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:42'>today is March 3rd 1992 you have several</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:46'>data service articles ready and you have men this is my agent I call him Phil</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:42:51'>Phil open the 1992 Olympic stacked</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:43:08'>the 1992 Winter Games are being held in ALP RV France let's get a closer look at</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:43:14'>the town let's look at ski jumping again</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:43:19'>we can play the video [Music]</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:43:27'>we could learn more about the sport or go back to the map let's look at figure</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:43:32'>skating I'd like to see who's on the USA</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:43:37'>team and I'd like to see Debbie Thomas</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:43:42'>I'm looking for a spin like that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:43:50'>[Music]</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:43:54'>let's go back alan kay was explaining</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:43:58'>why skaters go faster as they tuck their arms in he showed me a simulation to illustrate</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:44:03'>the underlying principles let me call that up Phil add the physics draw</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:44:10'>toolbox which tool box physics draw</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:44:15'>let's see I'll need a counter we can</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:44:21'>make the window translucent let's step</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:44:25'>through the spin and count the frames</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:44:30'>okay that's one complete rotation now</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:44:35'>I'll draw a model representing a skater with her arms extended select the center</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:44:44'>axis and rotate to rotate this speed</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:44:55'>and here's an overhead view of the figure let's hold onto that earlier</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:45:01'>Allen and I created a similar model where the skater has tucked her arms in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:45:06'>and appears to be spinning faster Phil displayed skater a model one let's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:45:13'>compare these two models</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:45:20'>a small one the one with the shorter radius seems to run faster but let's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:45:28'>check that I'll set them both to run for three tenths of a second the small one</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:45:37'>turns farther around the circle but let's see how much distance is actually</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:45:41'>covered I'll straighten out the curb paths to measure them both paths are the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:45:47'>same length even though spin increases the distance</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:45:51'>traveled is the same the luge event is about to begin</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:45:55'>show it live or record it no I'm not interested in luge I don't understand</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:46:01'>I like skating I don't understand don't</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:46:06'>show luge don't record it I understand</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:46:11'>I'd like to say this simulation Phil start a link Phil show the stack map</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:46:27'>too far okay show recent link to this</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:46:36'>background now anytime I'm on a skating</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:46:40'>card I can link to my physics simulation by the time the Winter Olympics come to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:46:45'>a BIR V in 1992 CD media will be well</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:46:49'>established each of us will be able to choose our own path through Worlds of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:46:53'>entertainment and information the tools like those that we've been seen will</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:46:58'>allow us to integrate the full range of sound video and text information this</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:47:03'>demo ends here John should I show the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:47:07'>pre-recorded speech or will you give it live [Music]</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:47:24'>so the basic idea here is that the computer isn't a box it's actually a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:47:30'>little world they were just starting to learn how to enter the user interfaces</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:47:36'>that we've done so far are a lot like experiments and radioactive chemistry</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:47:42'>it's like there's three feet of lead between you and the good stuff we've got</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:47:46'>a few little tongs and a few little television camera ways of seeing all</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:47:50'>that all that stuff that's in there and we still worry about something awful</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:47:54'>happening if we make a mistake but we think of the computer as a world then we</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:47:58'>eventually start thinking about gee what would it be like to get into that world</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:03'>instead of just probing at the world we want to get into it because of our</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:08'>natural tendency to explore so here's a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:12'>here's one way that people are starting to do that now and I want to go to the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:16'>tape marked five skip the next couple go to the tape mark five and here's a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:23'>system being developed by one of my former colleagues who wasn't he was now</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:28'>at NASA in which you can actually get inside the computer to a considerable</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:35'>extent so roll that tape marked five so</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:42'>he's wearing a helmet on his head and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:46'>the computer knows where he's looking</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:50'>and he has a glove on his hand and you</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:54'>can and you can see his glove in the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:48:59'>computer graphics display so what we're seeing there is what he's seeing</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:49:04'>simultaneously was seeing him physically and he can interact with the things that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:49:08'>are in there as he puts his finger inside the underneath the box they're</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:49:12'>sure to get a lift on the synthesizer that's the way</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:49:16'>I walk over to the escalator</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:49:20'>and stand on it as I would a real escalator</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:49:29'>and it takes me up to the second floor [Music]</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:49:46'>and then walk over to down escalator that takes me back to him</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:49:53'>[Music] and using a special glove and speech</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:49:57'>input and a person can interact with a synthesized environment</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:50:01'>the system also recognizes gestures in this case if I have ten fingers it's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:50:08'>recognized as a gesture to fly through the database flying out the doors</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:50:14'>[Music]</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:50:20'>[Music]</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:50:26'>[Music]</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:50:30'>so how do you interact well you can interact by calling up menus that just</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:50:35'>float in space a gesture brings up the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:50:40'>menu and then you can just point to the item that you want so the display here</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:50:45'>is a virtual display the display is as large as your field of view as you can</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:50:50'>swing your head around here they're</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:50:56'>doing sort of spacestation kinds of things one of the things you can do with</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:00'>this is to superimpose the help assist</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:06'>help manual for the help manual for</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:11'>electronic components you open the drawer it knows you're looking into the drawer and it can superimpose right over</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:16'>the surface of the thing what you're supposed to do with it so put you into</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:21'>one-to-one correspondence with the world</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:25'>so let's let's stop that one now of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:30'>course the the graphics they are kind of crude this is a system that's just</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:35'>starting to work and what we want to do is to go to a world that doesn't look</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:39'>like green wireframe graphics we want a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:43'>world that is created dynamically in 3d</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:49'>and most of you are familiar with the use of 3d graphics to do special effects</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:55'>for television and occasionally movies but the problem with those graphics is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:51:59'>it takes sometimes hours to compute each frame so it's it doesn't have the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:52:04'>immediacy it's a little bit like playing a flute concerto and coming back two</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:52:08'>hours later to hear what you sounded like doesn't have the same feeling but</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:52:12'>there are a class of 3d graphics engines</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:52:16'>that do everything in real time and these are the flight simulators I</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:52:21'>actually worked on the very first 3d graphics project where 3d graphics was</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:52:27'>invented and the guy who is the head of the department Dave Evans formed the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:52:31'>company called Evans & Sutherland they make the best flight simulators the world let's take a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:52:36'>look at one of those looks like so if we go to the the next tape mark six here's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:52:43'>a real pilot is flying this plane and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:52:49'>the job of this thing is wherever you go at Mach 2 or Mach 3 wherever you steer</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:52:55'>the plane it instantly has to create the world that you would see if you're going that way so the database here is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:53:00'>hundreds and even thousands of miles and extent and the scene detail can be</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:53:06'>rather large if you notice the individual leaves on the trees this is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:53:11'>just one part of a database that is hundreds and hundreds of miles in extent</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:53:17'>you see some Harrier Jump Jets coming in these jump Jets are actually being flown</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:53:22'>by real pilots and we're looking into this simulated world from a point of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:53:27'>view about a hundred feet above the ground the pilots are looking out their</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:53:33'>windows at their own points of view simultaneously</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:53:42'>[Music]</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:53:48'>now we take a look at the same very same thing going on simultaneously from about</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:53:53'>ten feet above the ground [Music]</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:53:57'>you see the shadow being computed there's actually a real son</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:54:03'>this would be actually easy if God hadn't put so many photons into the</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:54:07'>universe so this takes okay so let's stop that</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:54:13'>and buy here's the is the final point of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:54:19'>view okay so let's quit that tape</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:54:25'>and the computing power of about eight</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:54:29'>Cray supercomputers is used to do this and this would be very uninteresting and</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:54:37'>interesting to show you this except that in the next five to seven years this</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:54:42'>kind of graphics dynamic graphics is going to come to the desktop and it's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:54:47'>going to be a big surprise to everybody because it's been so long away because</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:54:52'>of these immense computational problems but the the change in packaging that's</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:54:57'>coming about the the cliche of being able to double the number of transistors</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:01'>on a chip every year is finally catching up with problems like this and the an</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:07'>enormous computing engine like this will be reduced down to the size of a couple</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:11'>of cards in about five years and it will change the way we do computer graphics</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:17'>everywhere including in broadcasting because it's going to be have the same</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:21'>impact as desktop publishing no longer will you be going out to special effects</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:26'>houses for most of your special effects you can actually manufacture them in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:30'>real time and even do things with them on the air now we use these in our</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:37'>educational project that we're doing at Apple which is called the vivarium to</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:42'>create a simulated world for simulated</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:47'>animals around under their own power and under their own thought so these this is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:53'>a completely simulated world where we took the animal behavior patterns from</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:55:57'>books written by ethologists made little animal mentalities put in the animal</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:56:03'>bodies created a huge environment for them to go around in and we can take a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:56:08'>look at the the result of the kind of future you'll be able to deal in in the next five to seven years this next tape</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:56:20'>there's actually some sound on this you might try the other channel</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:56:28'>so this is a decorator crab and it has a</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:56:33'>symbiotic relationship with some of several of the animals</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:56:40'>you know it's in the simulation you can see the changing light patterns coming</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:56:45'>from the surface above so this this is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:56:53'>not something that took hours to do this two minutes of tape I'm showing you took</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:56:57'>exactly two minutes to compute in fact</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:57:01'>it computes twice as many frames as no ordinary television does so this computes 60 full frame and the animals</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:57:11'>here are not directly under our control they're sensing each other and reacting</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:57:18'>appropriately but we didn't script them to do that what we did was we put in</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:57:23'>general behavior patterns such as the animals have and we under around vast</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:57:31'>aquarium like structure this is what is called self-motivated</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:57:37'>animation which is going to be the next big thing in computer graphics which</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:57:44'>amazingly has exactly this coloration I couldn't believe it when I first saw one</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:57:48'>is it look so artificial fact steel</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:57:57'>venomous spines from the cien enemies that they absorb without hurting</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:58:01'>themselves to use on other animals</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:58:05'>as they wander around the bottom now we get an idea as to the size of</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:58:11'>this simulation here</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:58:19'>[Music]</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:58:55'>to wind up the our future really lies</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:59:01'>and being able to rotate our contexts so</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:59:05'>that even when things look impossible now we very few possible the next few</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:59:13'>years way of God and that the computer</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:59:21'>but we're going to actually get inside of it's going to be in a respondents</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:59:27'>with our cellular telephone is starting</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:59:31'>to be that our power in using it is</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:59:35'>going to be in our ability to simulate and connect the transcendent is you have</subtitle>
<subtitle id='00:59:43'>to do that is the one between our ears providing it's loaded thank you very</subtitle>
<subtitle id='3587'>much [Applause] </subtitle>