Difference between revisions of "Alan Kay Keynote at NATF 2013 Part 2"
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+ | <subtitle id="0:0:7">okay so here's another idea we love news</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:0:10"> and we are very troubled by new I</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:0:13"> can think about it</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:0:16"> news is completely incremental to</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:0:19"> what we already know it</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:0:22">deals entirely in categories that we already have</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:0:25"> so news is oh there's</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:0:28"> been a shooting over here a car crash over</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:0:31"> here somebody did a good deed over here etc</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:0:34"> etc so you can</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:0:37"> get through a whole bunch of news items in 20 minutes or so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:0:40"> new has the problem that if it's really</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:0:43"> new it's like those flies</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:0:46"> or something that your</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:0:49"> your dream and your</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:0:52"> ghost haven't seen before so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:0:55"> it might be truly invisible might be right in front of you</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:0:58"> but you might not even be able to see it</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:1:1">or you might convert it into something you've seen before and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:1:4"> miss what it was and so forth and news</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:1:7"> is about campfires and new</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:1:10"> is about learning</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:1:16">because we have to learn some of the things</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:1:19"> we've learned genetically there's a lot known about what babies</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:1:22"> know when they were born there's a bunch of things that</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:1:25"> we learn very readily as we'll see in a second and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:1:28"> then there's some new stuff that's appeared in the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:1:31">hundred years that is actually rather difficult to learn and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:1:34"> it was only discovered recently in</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:1:37"> large part because it is not at all obvious to</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:1:40"> our nervous system and those kind of things</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:1:43"> were the things that caused schools to be invented</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:1:46"> and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:1:49"> so I'm trying</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:1:52"> to talk about new here but I can't this</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:1:55"> is a campfire right this</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:1:58"> is why Nicholas told a bunch of wonderful</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:2:1"> stories because that is how you communicate in a</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:2:4"> campfire and the problem</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:2:7"> with campfires is we had them for two hundred thousand years</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:2:10"> and didn't accomplish a goddamn thing is</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:2:13"> when we got out of the campfires and started</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:2:16"> trying to deal maybe getting</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:2:19"> around what our senses are even trying to tell</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:2:22"> us that we started making progress so I have to</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:2:25"> talk about the new in terms of something</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:2:28"> that always has to be manifested</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:2:31"> in a news forum and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:2:34"> our built-in learning</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:2:37"> is essentially</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:2:40"> remembering we're actually not very good at</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:2:43"> learning for a variety of reasons and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:2:46"> most of learning throughout most of human</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:2:49"> history is rather like erosion</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:2:52"> anybody have any erosion gullies in there</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:2:55"> we don't have them that</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:2:58"> much in California because in theory it never rains here</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:3:1"> of course outside it's a heavy</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:3:4"> dude today but</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:3:7"> basically what happens is you don't know where</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:3:10"> the rain is going it disturbs something</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:3:13"> there's maybe a pebble that doesn't get</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:3:16"> disturbed and something else does get disturb you get a little gully then</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:3:19"> the cool thing about gullies is because</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:3:22"> they have this slope once you</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:3:25">get the thing started it starts running a lot of water</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:3:28"> into that random thing</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:3:31">and all of a sudden you get one of these guys this</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:3:34"> is our memory system it's</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:3:37">basically always building on what's there it's very hard</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:3:40"> for us to forget one of the things people</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:3:43"> who do talks are told</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:3:46"> by talk advisors is</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:3:49"> the chances that they'll remember anything</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:3:52"> you say are low but they'll absolutely</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:3:55"> remember how you made them feel</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:3:58">because that is</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:4:1"> what is actually going on here I'm just trying</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:4:4"> to get past that a little bit</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:4:7"> yeah so almost all learning and throughout</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:4:10"> history and even a lot of it's still in the United</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:4:13"> States and other countries to do is by rote</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:4:16"> thinking that remembering some pattern</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:4:19"> is good enough for 21st</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:4:22"> century learning turns out that could not</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:4:25"> be farther from the case</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:4:28"> but we even test for it and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:4:31"> when we have we love explanations</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:4:34"> the problem is we're not very critical of the explanations</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:4:37"> so we get one of these guys I'm</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:4:40"> really miss them out here in California</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:4:43"> but the most popular idea</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:4:46"> in history has been there's some guy up there</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:4:49"> with superpowers throwing lightning bolts around</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:4:52"> and would you like to be</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:4:55"> that guy</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:4:58"> and we just hate</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:5:1"> it's things that are better explanations</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:5:4"> if they don't have any punch</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:5:7"> and sizzle to them and now</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:5:10"> Maxwell's equations has beauty but</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:5:13"> it doesn't have a plot it</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:5:16"> doesn't have a hero except Maxwell and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:5:19"> he's not there and so we love</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:5:22"> stories and we're quite</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:5:25"> indifferent as a species to science it's</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:5:28"> actually developed taste and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:5:31"> so vastly more people in the world</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:5:34"> still believe in stories and this is the problem with</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:5:37"> kids kids are incredibly curious as Nicholas</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:5:40"> pointed out the problem is</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:5:43"> is that we humans when we're curious</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:5:46"> and we want an explanation for</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:5:49">something our brains are satisfied with a story</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:5:52"> so every time we express</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:5:55">curiosity as a child unless we're that one child</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:5:58"> in a thousand we will accept the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:6:1"> story and okay that's the that's the reason for</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:6:4"> this and this is the reason for that and so forth this produces</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:6:7">adults that have the same thing and they tell their children stories</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:6:10"> get nowhere</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:6:13"> so we love religion and relief and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:6:16"> thinking is painful</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:6:19"> another thing we are</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:6:22"> social social means a lot</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:6:25"> of things notice I'm using here</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:6:28"> some alliteration here because</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:6:31"> it's our brains are so bad that</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:6:34"> alliterations actually are easier</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:6:37"> to learn everybody</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:6:40">remember if the glove doesn't fit then you must acquit</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:6:46">how dumb was Johnny Cochran no</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:6:49"> no I know I'm changing</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:6:52"> the subject that's</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:6:55"> an alliteration but</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:6:58"> the reason he did that is because our</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:7:1"> brains happen to think things that rhyme are more true and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:7:4"> Johnny Cochran is not a dumb guy</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:7:7"> and he was dealing with jurors who weren't</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:7:10"> sophisticated so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:7:13"> one of the exit interviews in that trial</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:7:16"> was to a juror who was asked well what about the DNA evidence</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:7:19"> and she said well that's just science</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:7:22"> literally I saw that review my that</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:7:25"> interview myself</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:7:28"> so important</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:7:31"> thing here is is there's a trade-off</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:7:34"> between competition and cooperation and there's</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:7:37"> a lot of cheating and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:7:40"> the study cheating has been studied very</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:7:43"> very closely because it's the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:7:46"> most interesting thing why do we</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:7:49"> do it even when it's against our better long-term</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:7:52"> interests we cheat ourselves we cheat other</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:7:55"> people in various ways just</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:7:58"> something to think about and we're tribal</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:8:1"> and the tribes radiate out</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:8:4"> from us we're tribal</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:8:7"> they say in the Middle East</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:8:10"> me against my brother my brother and I against</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:8:13">family our family against the neighbors our</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:8:16"> neighborhood against the city and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:8:19"> spheres going out</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:8:22"> and it's very easy to convert</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:8:25"> people who've never met each other before into</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:8:28"> a tribe done</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:8:31"> all the time touch football</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:8:34"> something that everybody kind of knows how to</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:8:37"> do put one group against another and amazing</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:8:40"> things happen</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:8:43">so here's some esas here</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:8:46"> social stories status and subterfuge</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:8:49"> are characterized us</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:8:52"> as a as a species and in fact anthropologists</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:8:55"> have been studying this for about a hundred years</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:8:58"> and here's a partial list</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:9:1"> because they're about 300</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:9:4"> these are traits</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:9:7"> that when looking</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:9:10"> at 3,000 different societies these</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:9:13"> are traits that are never absent</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:9:16"> okay this is why</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:9:19"> they're called universals most</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:9:22"> of these traits are</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:9:25"> thought to be in born</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:9:28"> these are things</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:9:31"> that so we aren't born with a particular</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:9:34"> language but we're born with the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:9:37"> propensity to pick up the local language</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:9:40"> why do they think that's special</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:9:43"> well we're not born with</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:9:46">propensity to learn how to read and write</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:9:49">so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:9:52"> they've never found a society that didn't have a language but</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:9:55">societies they looked at didn't have a writing system</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:9:58"> in spite of the fact that a writing system</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:10:1"> is really the simplest distance if</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:10:4"> you think of it in one sphere from</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:10:7"> I'm it's just writing down the very things</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:10:10"> that you're saying what</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:10:13">could be a simpler idea than that but in fact it's not occurred</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:10:16"> to most human societies on the planet it's</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:10:19"> actually an invention and a relatively recent one</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:10:22"> and it takes a</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:10:25"> while to learn a lot of these so it takes years</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:10:28"> before you're allowed for instance</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:10:31"> to take communion in the Catholic Church in</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:10:34"> spite of the fact that we're made for religion</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:10:37"> so it's interesting to</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:10:40"> look at all of these things</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:10:43"> that characterize human beings and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:10:46"> you female</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:10:49"> mitochondrial DNA says</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:10:52"> we've been on the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:10:55"> planet for about under ninety three thousand</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:10:58"> years and hunting and gathering</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:11:1"> has been a</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:11:4"> mode that has lasted that entire time and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:11:7"></subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:11:10"> agriculture came in as an invention</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:11:13"> most likely by women one</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:11:16"> of the most important inventions of all time about</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:11:19"> 11,000 years ago so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:11:22"> there's a lot of the same and then</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:11:25"> a major invention that started transforming</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:11:28"> things this is on a scale</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:11:31"> of 1 pixel every 200 years</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:11:34"> okay it's hard these long</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:11:37"> time I hate showing log scale</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:11:40"> things because most people cannot interpret</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:11:43"> the powers of 10 change its</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:11:46"> right so it's nice to</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:11:49"> say pixels 200 years that's</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:11:52"> sort of within our range well</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:11:55"> let's take something like saving</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:11:58"> for the future which is certainly</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:12:1">part of any kind of sustainable theory in fact</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:12:4"> it's one</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:12:7"> of the big deals in agriculture</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:12:10"> don't eat</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:12:13"> your seed corn and yet</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:12:16"> interesting enough in the United States the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:12:19"> on the average we</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:12:22"> are eating our seed corn</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:12:25"> we are actually removing the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:12:28"> margins that we need in order to change our</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:12:31"> mind or to deal with unexpected events so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:12:34"> that is a really interesting thing and it really</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:12:37"> from the time that they've been looking at this the first</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:12:40"> time it actually went negative</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:12:43"> was just a few years ago</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:12:46"> so this is I think quite significant</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:12:49"> and the reason I'm putting it up here</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:12:52"> is to ask you to think about what is the psychological shift</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:12:55"> that could have happened that</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:12:58"> would cause people to actually go back</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:13:1">and do what is essentially a hunting and gathering mode what</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:13:4"> kind of assumption because I'm getting honey hunters</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:13:7"> and gatherers don't</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:13:10"> worry about that</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:13:13"> because what happens when they</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:13:16"> out gather and out hunt the place they are</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:13:19"> they just move on because if you're</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:13:22"> only a tribe of a couple of 100 and there's less</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:13:25">a few hundred thousand of you on the entire planet no</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:13:28"> problem you just keep on moving there's</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:13:31"> just nothing in our genetic makeup</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:13:34">that makes us want</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:13:40">so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:13:43"> once the anthropologists looked at universals they</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:13:46"> got very interested in well what are some of the things</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:13:49"> that we can find in different</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:13:52"> societies that are not in all societies that are actually important</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:13:55"> so the first one of course is writing</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:13:58"></subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:14:1"> some societies have formed</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:14:4"> all societies do something with arithmetic but</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:14:7"> only a few have done something with</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:14:10"> deductive mathematics science</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:14:13"> is only a few hundred years old most</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:14:16"> societies you die in</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:14:19"> the same society you were born into</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:14:22"> some societies have the idea of new in progress</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:14:25"> but what's built into us is coping</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:14:28"> we are great copers this by the way</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:14:31"> this is one of the reasons why computing is in such difficulties</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:14:34"> today how many people here are programmers</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:14:37"> okay here's</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:14:40"> my experience when I started 50 years ago actually on</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:14:43"> one of the machines downstairs they</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:14:46"> got it working again too that's pretty funny</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:14:49"> the 1401 but basically</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:14:52"> it was somebody else's machine somebody else's programming</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:14:55">language somebody else's problem somebody else's</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:14:58"> theory of how to write the program and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:15:1"> it was in order to</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:15:4"> survive in that environment you had to deal with an</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:15:7"> enormous amount of stuff a lot of it was crap even</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:15:10"> then 50 years ago nothing like the pile of</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:15:13"> crap today that you have to deal with but if you're</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:15:16"> not basically a koper</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:15:19"> you're not going to stay a programmer for long you're</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:15:22">going to go into something to go into management push</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:15:25"> other people around</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:15:28"> so thought</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:15:31"> has changed from remembering</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:15:34"> to</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:15:37"> actually understanding things one</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:15:40"> of the toughest inventions that we know of</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:15:43"> in the human panoply is equal</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:15:46"> rights it's one of the hardest to learn we're</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:15:49"> struggling with it still and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:15:52"> so on</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:15:55"> so learning curves on these guys</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:16:1">and they're all so principled they</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:16:4"> are not generally picked up on the job there</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:16:7"> are things that actually require quite</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:16:10"> a bit of prep and they're</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:16:13"> more or less at odds with the general</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:16:16"> human way of learning by doing</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:16:19"> traditional societies don't have schools because</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:16:22"> the kids watch what the adults are doing they</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:16:25"> hunt squirrels the adults are hunting</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:16:28"> antelope and so it's just a continuity</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:16:31"> what you do as a child is where as Maria Montessori pointed</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:16:34"> out that well that doesn't obtained</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:16:37"> at all in the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:16:40"> 20 20th century because a young girl</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:16:43"></subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:16:46"> dressed in a nurse's uniform playing</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:16:49"> with a stethoscope is only imitating</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:16:52">of what an adult does but not the content in fact</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:16:55"> most adult activities in the 21st century are</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:16:58"> actually formal</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:17:1"> rather than content 'full as they are in</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:17:4"> traditional societies so that is a pretty</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:17:7"> important big deal so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:17:10"> go</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:17:13"> back to the timeline here</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:17:16"> so writing is about 5,500 years ago</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:17:19"> we thought printing</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:17:22"> press 500 science</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:17:25"> US Constitution I put it up there not</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:17:28"> as a governance thing but as one of the first times</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:17:31"> human beings in history that we know</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:17:34"> of actually thought in systems terms that</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:17:37"> is actually a design</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:17:40"> of an operating system for a machine</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:17:43"> full of millions of somewhat uncooperative and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:17:46"> noisy parts namely us and so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:17:49"> it's a very interesting to read about how they thought about what</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:17:52"> it was that they're trying to do because they were trying to put in error</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:17:55"> correction mechanisms into this thing that they wanted</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:17:58"> to be as freewheeling as possible that was one of the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:18:1"> newest ideas in human history germ</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:18:4"> theory of disease modern medicine if you look</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:18:7"> at these in terms of modern human lifetimes</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:18:10"> of about 80 years can see that</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:18:13">printing press is only seven modern human lifetimes</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:18:16"> ago</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:18:19"> and our world is not like the world</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:18:22"> the Middle Ages that the printing press was born</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:18:25"> into our world started happening in the 17th</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:18:28"> century so it's really only</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:18:31"> a few hundred years old as far as what we</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:18:34"> take for granted here</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:18:37"> and not everybody takes it for granted because</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:18:40"> most of the world doesn't actually have that</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:18:43"> as a framework for thinking about what normal</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:18:46"> could be I'm not saying ours is better i'm just</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:18:49"> saying what happened in</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:18:52"> Europe a few hundred years ago was</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:18:55"> cataclysmically different from standard</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:18:58"> human development</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:19:1"> so sustainability Carl</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:19:4"> Sagan oh boy do we miss him</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:19:7"> we treat</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:19:10">his planet as though we had someplace to go after agreement well yeah</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:19:13">what the way hunters and gatherers deal with anything</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:19:16"> they do have some place to go after</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:19:19"> they ruin it the natural tendency</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:19:22"> of humans to strip-mine Einstein</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:19:25"> had a good one we can't solve our problems with the same level</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:19:28">thinking that created them that's scary if you aren't scared</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:19:31"> by that one you you're missing something and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:19:34"> tony hoare a great</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:19:37"> computer scientist who's in the Hall</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:19:40"> of fellows outside the door here</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:19:43"> he pointed out debugging is harder than programming</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:19:46"> so don't use your maximum cleverness when programming this</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:19:49"> is one of them this is one of the biggest bugs</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:19:52"> in computing is people unleash</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:19:55"> every ounce of cleverness they have on making</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:19:58"> the buggy thing and they they they</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:20:1">have the perspective to deal with all of the interactions that</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:20:4"> their cleverness wasn't so this is so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:20:7"> these two I think are quite complementary don't</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:20:10"> you they actually fit together very</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:20:13"> very nicely two different ways of showing</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:20:16"> it this is a maximal human thinking bug</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:20:19"> here so here this is what we are here</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:20:22"> we are basically cave people with briefcases</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:20:28">we</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:20:31"> like to think we're something better but</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:20:34"> in fact this is what we're what we're dealing</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:20:37"> with and the big problem</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:20:40">is that briefcase can hold nuclear weapons</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:20:43"> the old days it only held</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:20:46"> rocks and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:20:49"> we still get</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:20:52"> the same old pachinko machine up there</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:20:55"> and so this is a scaling problem</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:20:58"> we weren't that dangerous even</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:21:1"> when we wanted to be a hundred thousand years ago</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:21:4"> because we just didn't yeah</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:21:7"> we could whack somebody with a stick and but</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:21:10"> you could actually rush somebody who's</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:21:13"> gone nuts and whacking people with a stick</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:21:16">somebody's got an assault weapon or a nuclear weapon</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:21:19"> you can own Russia</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:21:22"> so this puts a qualitative</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:21:25"> disaster on every horizon you</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:21:28"> combine the two you get a yikes and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:21:31"> there's some really great cartoons here I'll read the captions</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:21:34"> for you the one at the top is mr. Oompa</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:21:37"> has simply worked here for ages</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:21:40"> so I'm hoping now your minds are</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:21:43"> thinking about whom business that is a lot</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:21:46"> like hunting and gathering isn't it it's</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:21:49"> not at all like the United States Constitution which</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:21:52"> is all about cooperating it's actually all</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:21:55"> about competition is all about wiping things</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:21:58"> out it's</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:22:1"> about short-term goals rather than long-term planning</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:22:4"> but one on the bottom is even</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:22:7"> better the guys saying AHA for</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:22:10"> precisely how long were you a hunter and gather it</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:22:16">I'm</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:22:19"> trying to make this entertaining but I'm hoping</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:22:22"> you seeing that this is dead serious stuff</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:22:28">and so Carl</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:22:31"> again he says we live in a society exquisitely dependent</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:22:34"> on science and technology in which</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:22:37">knows anything about science and technology</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:22:43">and so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:22:46"> here's some RS words</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:22:49"> and in spite of the fact that we</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:22:52"> do a little science as far as the general population is</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:22:55">concerned on the entire planet including the u.s. we</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:22:58"> really haven't gotten science into normal thinking</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:23:1"> we haven't gotten scaling into normal thinking we haven't</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:23:4"> gotten systems into normal thinking and we haven't gotten sustainability</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:23:7"> and normal thinking these things are not actually</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:23:10"> on anybody's top 10 list or</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:23:13"> top 100 list most</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:23:16"> people have not built up the background</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:23:19"> for even thinking about these things and so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:23:25">another way of looking at this is here</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:23:28"> are four exquisite</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:23:31"> systems that are all part</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:23:34"> of one system that we actually deal with so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:23:37"> we have basically the system of the natural world</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:23:43">science we have behind the figure</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:23:46"> there we have a crowd our</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:23:49"> culture social systems this</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:23:52"> is a picture of self portrait of the internet</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:23:55"> representing technology all the technology</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:23:58"> the logical systems we're doing and then we</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:24:1">have hundreds of systems that make us ourselves</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:24:4"> up we are a system of systems</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:24:7"> all of these systems are nonlinear</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:24:10">all of them are actually interacting with each other and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:24:13"> so if we don't actually get some systems consciousness</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:24:16"> we aren't going to be able to</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:24:19">talk about sustainability is why I haven't said anything about technological</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:24:22"> solutions to sustainability because</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:24:25"> for</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:24:28"> most people technology is a</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:24:31"> perverse form of inverse vandalism</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:24:34"> any but everybody</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:24:37">what i mean by in what does van vandalism is destroying</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:24:40"> something because you can saying</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:24:43"> i'm here to inverse vandalism is what</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:24:46"> we engineers do we make things</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:24:49"> because we can just because we can</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:24:52"> this museum i went</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:24:55"> through the exhibit hadn't been back</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:24:58"> here for a while and i was struck by how</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:25:1"> much crap there was</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:25:4"> it's actually very confusing because it</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:25:7"> is actually like a flea market where</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:25:10"> there are a hundred thousand different items each one of which</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:25:13"> one or two people thought</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:25:16">important that they went to the probably difficulty of actually</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:25:19"> manufacturing these and yet</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:25:22"> most of them are just complete crap</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:25:25"> because I ideas are cheap</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:25:28"> good ideas are hard the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:25:31"> regular ideas are a dime a dozen most of</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:25:34"> them are mediocre down to bed and so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:25:40">in order</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:25:43">things including what's wrong with our technology</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:25:46"> we</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:25:49"> can't we have to heat Einstein and tony hoare</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:25:52"> is anybody here see the movie spy</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:25:55"> game one of my favorites</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:25:58"> and there's a line in here went</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:26:1"> Robert Redford access his secretary</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:26:4">she's wondering why is he doing this now and he said when</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:26:7"> did Noah build the ark before the flood Gladys before</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:26:10"> the flood and so if you think about</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:26:13"> what that means well our biggest problem</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:26:16">sustainability and all of these things is</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:26:19"> we can't imagine nearly as well as we</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:26:22"> can experience that</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:26:25"> makes sense to</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:26:28">f the most amazing things and I've documented this and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:26:31"> I'm not going to burden you with them but it's</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:26:34"> collected cases of</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:26:37"> people who have</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:26:40"> like dived into</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:26:43"> a raging flood river to save a child</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:26:46"> they've never seen before</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:26:49"> some of these people were</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:26:52"> asked whether they had</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:26:55"> supported building higher</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:26:58"> dams most of them hadn't</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:27:1"> so one of the most interesting</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:27:4"> things about it is how heroic we can be and on</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:27:7"> each other's behalf when there's a disaster but</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:27:10"> how blank we are when it comes to thinking</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:27:13">about the disaster that hasn't happened yet this</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:27:16"> is why this new kind of imagination</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:27:19"> is needed</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:27:22"> another way looking at is because</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:27:25"> we're talking everybody loves change how</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:27:28"> many people here work for a business</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:27:34">o over I don't know 45 years or so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:27:37"> I've done most of my research at businesses and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:27:40"> every six</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:27:43"> months or so there are meetings about</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:27:46"> hey we have to re-engineer the system they there's</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:27:49"> some phrase about and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:27:52"> everybody's enthusiastic about it because yes of course</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:27:55"> we do you know we're fucking up all over the place of</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:27:58"> course we have to fix it the school American</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:28:1"> school system desperately needs to be fixed</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:28:4"> no kidding so everybody</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:28:7"> loves it except</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:28:10">he change part oh</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:28:13"> no</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:28:16"> so we can deal with something intellectually just</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:28:19">we can talk about sustainability but when it comes to actually</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:28:22"> do it these other parts of the pachinko machine</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:28:25"> kick in because almost all</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:28:28"> changes are impugning our own reality</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:28:31"> this is why especially religious</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:28:34"> wars are so terrible because</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:28:37"> once you've identified with a religion you</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:28:40"> can't have a real discussion about it with somebody else</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:28:43"> because at some point either you or they</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:28:46"> are actually attacking your own identity</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:28:49"> because you've tied us so closely to</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:28:52"> this so this is why things rarely happen</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:28:55"> it's sort of the low-pass filter</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:28:58"> that takes every idea down to a dial tone</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:29:1"> and we wind up coping</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:29:4"> and way we cope is by</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:29:7"> making things quote-unquote better</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:29:10"> so here's a we</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:29:13"> can put anything over here I've got 75</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:29:16"> years there put anything could be learning</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:29:19"> could be change anything anything</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:29:22"> we need to get better at</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:29:25"> and here's what we do in America we make this</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:29:28"> graph every time that guy goes up</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:29:31"> there's an article in the paper and people cheer</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:29:34"> and every time it goes down there's an article</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:29:37"> in the paper and people moan let's</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:29:40"> say it's reading these are reading scores</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:29:43"> that look familiar is it may be there</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:29:46"> too going up reading is probably trending</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:29:49"> yeah turns out it's completely irrelevant</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:29:52"> because if you don't read that well you</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:29:55"> aren't reading and the real</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:29:58"> problem in America is almost no children are fluent in reading</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:30:1"> enough to read for purpose</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:30:4"> this whole system has been</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:30:7"> game down to the point where these</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:30:10"> things are deemed to be significant</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:30:13"> where we're produced the nation that cannot do</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:30:16">anymore and the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:30:19"> conflict is usually between</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:30:22"> this idea of better</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:30:25"> well at least we're improving</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:30:28"> least we're getting better then</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:30:31"> there the other con the other extreme is but it's</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:30:34"> not perfect never been</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:30:37"> in a meeting between the betters and the perfect just</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:30:40"> drives you crazy because they're both</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:30:43"> completely wrong the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:30:46"> better guys are dealing in the news range they're</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:30:49"> never going to get there if something new is needed the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:30:52">guys are dealing in a place where the probability of getting</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:30:55"> it at that level is zero</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:30:58"> they're just too idealistic and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:31:1"> so what's what you need is a</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:31:4"> sense of this above</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:31:7"> threshold region which starts</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:31:10">the category called what is actually needed they</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:31:13"> don't care whether it's better and we aren't going to get perfect</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:31:16"> so we have to aim for what is needed</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:31:19"> and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:31:22"> so this is what we did at Xerox</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:31:25"> PARC so Nicholas gave you a little history</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:31:28"> I'm not going to do that but</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:31:31"> basically Xerox PARC hit the ball out of</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:31:34"> the park maybe</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:31:37"> 15 times in a period of about five years</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:31:40"> so included not just the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:31:43"> alto that the GUI object-oriented</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:31:46"> programming the ethernet the whole laser</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:31:49">printer a whole bunch of other things each one of these things</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:31:52"> were trillion dollar industries and the net</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:31:55"> return from Xerox PARC today has been around</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:31:58"> 31 or 32 trillion dollars that</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:32:1"> was done over a period of about five years by about two</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:32:4"> dozen of us and if we</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:32:7">of those things it would have been actually we had luck</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:32:10"> we were very lucky in</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:32:13"> our manager you let us do what needed</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:32:16"> to be done but when</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:32:19"> you do it 15 times there's some process involved</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:32:22"> there and part of the process is you have to</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:32:25"> pick that little sweet spot there we actually</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:32:28"> call it the McCready speed sweet spot McCready</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:32:31"> is the guy who did man-powered flight so he is</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:32:34"> one of the most amazing problem finders</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:32:37"> and problem solvers to the point that he was in</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:32:40"> the 20th century the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:32:43"> mechanical engineers of the world awarded him the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:32:46"> honor of being considered</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:32:49"> to be the mechanical engineer of the 20th century</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:32:52"> if you think about what things were</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:32:55"> done in mechanical engineering of the 20th century this is an</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:32:58"> almost unimaginable honor but this</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:33:1"> guy deserved it and we</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:33:4"> got a lot out of here's a great guy to to</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:33:7"> talk to and work with and the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:33:10"> neat thing is once you hit that little</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:33:13"> sweet spot you actually widen</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:33:16"> up this area because you've learned something that</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:33:19"> is like the things that you need to do and in</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:33:22"> that range is usually where almost all of</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:33:25">good stuff is going to happen you're still not going to get up to perfection</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:33:28">but it doesn't matter because now you've got this incredibly</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:33:31"> new fertile area and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:33:34">a new way of dealing with this with this area</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:33:40">okay last slide</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:33:46">so it's not that adults are hopeless</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:33:49"> by incredible</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:33:52"> effort for</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:33:55"> most of us we can learn a language starting at</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:33:58"> age 40 we can</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:34:1"> learn to play classical music starting at age 40</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:34:4"> most of us don't have the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:34:7"> time I learned from silent in the classical</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:34:10"> pipe organ starting at age 40 I had been a musician</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:34:12"> before on other instruments</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:34:15"> and I had one of those 40's crises</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:34:18"> and I just</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:34:22"> hated myself for not following this</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:34:25"> felt need for</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:34:28"> learning to play this music I love myself and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:34:31"> so finally when I was 40 my thought</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:34:33">well in five years i'm going to be 45 and i can either be an</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:34:36"> organist or not and so I just grounded</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:34:39"> out got up two and a half</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:34:42"> hours earlier every day for</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:34:45"> six years and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:34:49"> started getting to</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:34:52"> be able to play these big pieces in a nice nice</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:34:55"> way so it can be done but</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:34:57"> it's really unreasonable for instance</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:35:0"> to ask most teachers to learn</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:35:3"> something in the midst of the incredible busy</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:35:6">same with parents parents are already busy so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:35:9"> I believe that the sweet spot for the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:35:12"> problems we've been talking about is not just education but</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:35:15"> it's actually taking early childhood</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:35:18">education seriously because this is where you</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:35:21"> can introduce new epistemological frameworks that are</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:35:24"> not like the ones that we're born with you</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:35:27">can't get rid of the ones that we're born with like you don't want to get rid of stories</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:35:30"> those are neat but you have to help the kids take</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:35:33"> on a framework for thinking about things that's not story</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:35:36">like that has the character of scientific</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:35:39"> explanations and so forth and so I'll</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:35:42"> just leave you with that thought that the if we've</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:35:45"> discovered the enemy and he is us from</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:35:48"> Pogo then we also discovered</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:35:51"> the solution and that's teaching</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:35:54"> children in a much different way than we do now</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:36:3">very much should</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:36:6"> I go over no you're perfect on time you had 32</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:36:9"> seconds left Oh Sarek and that's time for one question</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:36:12"> okay how about a good one</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:36:15"> or comment if</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:36:18"> you're in Italy you never get a question you always get whatever</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:36:21"> they're feeling about that day</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:36:24"> so if ya if our mush</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:36:27"> is not good enough we built the web and we can collaborate</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:36:30"> but collaboration doesn't work so how</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:36:33"> do we think together and make it so well yeah</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:36:36"> so the web to be so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:36:39"> there's some history and if you go down stairs you'll</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:36:42">there's a guy by the name of Douglas Engelbart you may</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:36:45"> have heard of he's mostly famous for inventing the mouse which is</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:36:48"> the least of his contributions but</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:36:51"> his 1962 proposal</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:36:54"> to ARPA who was his funder</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:36:57"> was a basically</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:37:0"> said most of the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:37:3"> important things in the world are done by adults cooperating</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:37:6"> together and if computers are good for anything</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:37:9"> they should be able to help coordinate</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:37:12"> large-scale things in</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:37:15"> the in the human in human good and so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:37:18"> the big problem with the web is its what</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:37:21"> some of us old-timers call reinventing</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:37:24"> the flat tire and if</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:37:27"> you want to see that you can just look at the hour</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:37:30"> and a half demo that angle Bart did in 1968</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:37:33"> in San Francisco showing</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:37:36"> his system working back then</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:37:39"> and for that for us that was the embodiment of</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:37:42"> one important part of personal</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:37:45"> computing and you'll see things in there that are not</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:37:48"> even done on the web today so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:37:51"> it's not a question that the that this is a</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:37:54"> quaint old thing from the past and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:37:57"> the mistake that</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:38:0"> Darwinian processes optimize they don't</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:38:3"> Darwinian processings find fits to</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:38:6"> the environment that they're in and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:38:9"> the fifth to the environment is a fit to a pop culture</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:38:12"> which basically developed the web the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:38:15">internet on the other hand is one of the greatest pieces of technology</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:38:18"> ever design it was designed by experts and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:38:21"> there</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:38:24"> could not be a larger contrast between the internet and this</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:38:27"> web system that runs on top</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:38:30"> of it so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:38:33"> so the question of</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:38:36"> cooperation is</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:38:39"> when once once you have trouble with a word</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:38:42"> it's always good to ditch it right</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:38:45"> so so real question is</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:38:48"> not about can we cooperate when we're inclined</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:38:51"> to do so but is there any way on the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:38:54"> internet to build up trust because</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:38:57"> trust is the actual basis of</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:39:0"> cooperation it's the basis</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:39:3"> of so when I put groups together</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:39:6">going to i have my current group is spread out all</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:39:9"> over the world but we</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:39:12"> spend a lot of time together early on in</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:39:15"> order to use all the different</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:39:18"> kinds of communication including things that are quasi</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:39:21"> face-to-face like skype</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:39:24"> but even if you have a high res</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:39:27"> cisco system you don't get</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:39:30"> eye contact so as well so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:39:33">way is that negroponte action is one of the one of the pioneers</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:39:36"> of this so he did a big program that actually</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:39:39"> got a golden police award from</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:39:42"> Proxmire but it was a great program which is called</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:39:45"> transmission of presence so the question</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:39:48"> was what do you have to do to</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:39:51"> be able to talk about this</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:39:54"> talk about this argue about this argue about this would argue</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:39:57"> about this but can you have a marital</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:40:0"> argument over this technology</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:40:3"> and get to the place where at</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:40:6"> some point the key to the thing is whether they</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:40:9"> feel you're sincere just from</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:40:12"> the presents part of it and hardly</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:40:15"> anybody has done this so this is an example what I think the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:40:18"> modern era to me is working on easy</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:40:21"> problems and mostly doing inverse vandalism so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:40:24"> if you think of the real problems it really does have</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:40:27"> to do with not just communicating about things we're</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:40:30"> already more or less an agreement that's news but communicating</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:40:33"> and collaborating about things where we have to establish</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:40:36"> common ground hardly anything has been</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:40:39"> done and so once again</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:40:42">you know looking into the anthropology books is the Axelrod book</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:40:45"> about the evolution of collaboration which</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:40:48"> is a very important one there's a recent</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:40:51"> one by graber that is a fantastic i</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:40:54">fantastic graber he's written a number of books but</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:40:57"> when I'm thinking of is called 5,000 years</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:41:0"> of debt because the idea</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:41:3"> of debt goes back as far as we've</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:41:6"> been able to track any kind of society and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:41:9"> if you think about it that is one of the greatest ideas of all</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:41:12"> time if you don't game it right</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:41:15"> because debt allows you to</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:41:18"> borrow from the future in a sensible way and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:41:21"> to make various kinds of contracts about</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:41:24"> larger plans and you could ever do when</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:41:27"> you're trying to do the balance sheets</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:41:30"> every day and so the real question is</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:41:33"> how can you take this incredible slightly invention of money</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:41:36">it's one of the great inventions of all time if you</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:41:39"> don't game it because it's actually part of the meta system</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:41:42"> gaming meta systems gets people in trouble so</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:41:45"> the gray book if</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:41:48"> you're interested GRA EV er is an american</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:41:51"> anthropologist really</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:41:54"> a very thoughtful book there's conman's</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:41:57"> book some of you might have seen called</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:42:0"> fast thinking and slow thinking Kahneman</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:42:3"> by the way was the guy who first used</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:42:6"> measure measurements of pupil dilation to</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:42:9"> indicate in interest and I would have thought that</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:42:12">have been mentioned this morning because that's one of the things you'd</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:42:15">gauge is suppose you're trying to do online learning</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:42:18"> we want not just eye</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:42:21">tracking but you need to be able to pick up psychological</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:42:24"> signals that indicate with the student</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:42:27"> is interested still and</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:42:30">maybe change things if the student you can sense the student</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:42:33">he kinds of things as a teacher would do face</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:42:36"> reading a student so one</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:42:39">ways of looking at it this is great because hardly</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:42:42"> anything has been done in the last 30 years except</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:42:45"> exploiting Moore's law most of the ideas</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:42:48"> we have today are roughly the ones that the 80 started</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:42:51"> with like we're using the same user interface</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:42:54"> we did it Park we're using the same blah blah blah</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:42:57"> blah blah right using the ethernet the internet</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:43:0"> all of those things so very little of of</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:43:3">import has happened there but it's been spread widely because</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:43:6"> the costs and the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:43:9"> reliabilities have changed so drastically</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:43:12"> so I think we're</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:43:15">place where it's time to go back to some of these fundamental</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:43:18"> issues in large</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:43:21"> part because of that nuclear weapon in in the</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:43:24"> Cape guys briefcase thank</subtitle> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <subtitle id="0:43:27"> you thanks Alan</subtitle> |
Latest revision as of 22:49, 6 December 2017
okay so here's another idea we love news
and we are very troubled by new I
can think about it
news is completely incremental to
what we already know it
deals entirely in categories that we already have
so news is oh there's
been a shooting over here a car crash over
here somebody did a good deed over here etc
etc so you can
get through a whole bunch of news items in 20 minutes or so
new has the problem that if it's really
new it's like those flies
or something that your
your dream and your
ghost haven't seen before so
it might be truly invisible might be right in front of you
but you might not even be able to see it
or you might convert it into something you've seen before and
miss what it was and so forth and news
is about campfires and new
is about learning
because we have to learn some of the things
we've learned genetically there's a lot known about what babies
know when they were born there's a bunch of things that
we learn very readily as we'll see in a second and
then there's some new stuff that's appeared in the
hundred years that is actually rather difficult to learn and
it was only discovered recently in
large part because it is not at all obvious to
our nervous system and those kind of things
were the things that caused schools to be invented
and
so I'm trying
to talk about new here but I can't this
is a campfire right this
is why Nicholas told a bunch of wonderful
stories because that is how you communicate in a
campfire and the problem
with campfires is we had them for two hundred thousand years
and didn't accomplish a goddamn thing is
when we got out of the campfires and started
trying to deal maybe getting
around what our senses are even trying to tell
us that we started making progress so I have to
talk about the new in terms of something
that always has to be manifested
in a news forum and
our built-in learning
is essentially
remembering we're actually not very good at
learning for a variety of reasons and
most of learning throughout most of human
history is rather like erosion
anybody have any erosion gullies in there
we don't have them that
much in California because in theory it never rains here
of course outside it's a heavy
dude today but
basically what happens is you don't know where
the rain is going it disturbs something
there's maybe a pebble that doesn't get
disturbed and something else does get disturb you get a little gully then
the cool thing about gullies is because
they have this slope once you
get the thing started it starts running a lot of water
into that random thing
and all of a sudden you get one of these guys this
is our memory system it's
basically always building on what's there it's very hard
for us to forget one of the things people
who do talks are told
by talk advisors is
the chances that they'll remember anything
you say are low but they'll absolutely
remember how you made them feel
because that is
what is actually going on here I'm just trying
to get past that a little bit
yeah so almost all learning and throughout
history and even a lot of it's still in the United
States and other countries to do is by rote
thinking that remembering some pattern
is good enough for 21st
century learning turns out that could not
be farther from the case
but we even test for it and
when we have we love explanations
the problem is we're not very critical of the explanations
so we get one of these guys I'm
really miss them out here in California
but the most popular idea
in history has been there's some guy up there
with superpowers throwing lightning bolts around
and would you like to be
that guy
and we just hate
it's things that are better explanations
if they don't have any punch
and sizzle to them and now
Maxwell's equations has beauty but
it doesn't have a plot it
doesn't have a hero except Maxwell and
he's not there and so we love
stories and we're quite
indifferent as a species to science it's
actually developed taste and
so vastly more people in the world
still believe in stories and this is the problem with
kids kids are incredibly curious as Nicholas
pointed out the problem is
is that we humans when we're curious
and we want an explanation for
something our brains are satisfied with a story
so every time we express
curiosity as a child unless we're that one child
in a thousand we will accept the
story and okay that's the that's the reason for
this and this is the reason for that and so forth this produces
adults that have the same thing and they tell their children stories
get nowhere
so we love religion and relief and
thinking is painful
another thing we are
social social means a lot
of things notice I'm using here
some alliteration here because
it's our brains are so bad that
alliterations actually are easier
to learn everybody
remember if the glove doesn't fit then you must acquit
how dumb was Johnny Cochran no
no I know I'm changing
the subject that's
an alliteration but
the reason he did that is because our
brains happen to think things that rhyme are more true and
Johnny Cochran is not a dumb guy
and he was dealing with jurors who weren't
sophisticated so
one of the exit interviews in that trial
was to a juror who was asked well what about the DNA evidence
and she said well that's just science
literally I saw that review my that
interview myself
so important
thing here is is there's a trade-off
between competition and cooperation and there's
a lot of cheating and
the study cheating has been studied very
very closely because it's the
most interesting thing why do we
do it even when it's against our better long-term
interests we cheat ourselves we cheat other
people in various ways just
something to think about and we're tribal
and the tribes radiate out
from us we're tribal
they say in the Middle East
me against my brother my brother and I against
family our family against the neighbors our
neighborhood against the city and
spheres going out
and it's very easy to convert
people who've never met each other before into
a tribe done
all the time touch football
something that everybody kind of knows how to
do put one group against another and amazing
things happen
so here's some esas here
social stories status and subterfuge
are characterized us
as a as a species and in fact anthropologists
have been studying this for about a hundred years
and here's a partial list
because they're about 300
these are traits
that when looking
at 3,000 different societies these
are traits that are never absent
okay this is why
they're called universals most
of these traits are
thought to be in born
these are things
that so we aren't born with a particular
language but we're born with the
propensity to pick up the local language
why do they think that's special
well we're not born with
propensity to learn how to read and write
so
they've never found a society that didn't have a language but
societies they looked at didn't have a writing system
in spite of the fact that a writing system
is really the simplest distance if
you think of it in one sphere from
I'm it's just writing down the very things
that you're saying what
could be a simpler idea than that but in fact it's not occurred
to most human societies on the planet it's
actually an invention and a relatively recent one
and it takes a
while to learn a lot of these so it takes years
before you're allowed for instance
to take communion in the Catholic Church in
spite of the fact that we're made for religion
so it's interesting to
look at all of these things
that characterize human beings and
you female
mitochondrial DNA says
we've been on the
planet for about under ninety three thousand
years and hunting and gathering
has been a
mode that has lasted that entire time and
agriculture came in as an invention
most likely by women one
of the most important inventions of all time about
11,000 years ago so
there's a lot of the same and then
a major invention that started transforming
things this is on a scale
of 1 pixel every 200 years
okay it's hard these long
time I hate showing log scale
things because most people cannot interpret
the powers of 10 change its
right so it's nice to
say pixels 200 years that's
sort of within our range well
let's take something like saving
for the future which is certainly
part of any kind of sustainable theory in fact
it's one
of the big deals in agriculture
don't eat
your seed corn and yet
interesting enough in the United States the
on the average we
are eating our seed corn
we are actually removing the
margins that we need in order to change our
mind or to deal with unexpected events so
that is a really interesting thing and it really
from the time that they've been looking at this the first
time it actually went negative
was just a few years ago
so this is I think quite significant
and the reason I'm putting it up here
is to ask you to think about what is the psychological shift
that could have happened that
would cause people to actually go back
and do what is essentially a hunting and gathering mode what
kind of assumption because I'm getting honey hunters
and gatherers don't
worry about that
because what happens when they
out gather and out hunt the place they are
they just move on because if you're
only a tribe of a couple of 100 and there's less
a few hundred thousand of you on the entire planet no
problem you just keep on moving there's
just nothing in our genetic makeup
that makes us want
so
once the anthropologists looked at universals they
got very interested in well what are some of the things
that we can find in different
societies that are not in all societies that are actually important
so the first one of course is writing
some societies have formed
all societies do something with arithmetic but
only a few have done something with
deductive mathematics science
is only a few hundred years old most
societies you die in
the same society you were born into
some societies have the idea of new in progress
but what's built into us is coping
we are great copers this by the way
this is one of the reasons why computing is in such difficulties
today how many people here are programmers
okay here's
my experience when I started 50 years ago actually on
one of the machines downstairs they
got it working again too that's pretty funny
the 1401 but basically
it was somebody else's machine somebody else's programming
language somebody else's problem somebody else's
theory of how to write the program and
it was in order to
survive in that environment you had to deal with an
enormous amount of stuff a lot of it was crap even
then 50 years ago nothing like the pile of
crap today that you have to deal with but if you're
not basically a koper
you're not going to stay a programmer for long you're
going to go into something to go into management push
other people around
so thought
has changed from remembering
to
actually understanding things one
of the toughest inventions that we know of
in the human panoply is equal
rights it's one of the hardest to learn we're
struggling with it still and
so on
so learning curves on these guys
and they're all so principled they
are not generally picked up on the job there
are things that actually require quite
a bit of prep and they're
more or less at odds with the general
human way of learning by doing
traditional societies don't have schools because
the kids watch what the adults are doing they
hunt squirrels the adults are hunting
antelope and so it's just a continuity
what you do as a child is where as Maria Montessori pointed
out that well that doesn't obtained
at all in the
20 20th century because a young girl
dressed in a nurse's uniform playing
with a stethoscope is only imitating
of what an adult does but not the content in fact
most adult activities in the 21st century are
actually formal
rather than content 'full as they are in
traditional societies so that is a pretty
important big deal so
go
back to the timeline here
so writing is about 5,500 years ago
we thought printing
press 500 science
US Constitution I put it up there not
as a governance thing but as one of the first times
human beings in history that we know
of actually thought in systems terms that
is actually a design
of an operating system for a machine
full of millions of somewhat uncooperative and
noisy parts namely us and so
it's a very interesting to read about how they thought about what
it was that they're trying to do because they were trying to put in error
correction mechanisms into this thing that they wanted
to be as freewheeling as possible that was one of the
newest ideas in human history germ
theory of disease modern medicine if you look
at these in terms of modern human lifetimes
of about 80 years can see that
printing press is only seven modern human lifetimes
ago
and our world is not like the world
the Middle Ages that the printing press was born
into our world started happening in the 17th
century so it's really only
a few hundred years old as far as what we
take for granted here
and not everybody takes it for granted because
most of the world doesn't actually have that
as a framework for thinking about what normal
could be I'm not saying ours is better i'm just
saying what happened in
Europe a few hundred years ago was
cataclysmically different from standard
human development
so sustainability Carl
Sagan oh boy do we miss him
we treat
his planet as though we had someplace to go after agreement well yeah
what the way hunters and gatherers deal with anything
they do have some place to go after
they ruin it the natural tendency
of humans to strip-mine Einstein
had a good one we can't solve our problems with the same level
thinking that created them that's scary if you aren't scared
by that one you you're missing something and
tony hoare a great
computer scientist who's in the Hall
of fellows outside the door here
he pointed out debugging is harder than programming
so don't use your maximum cleverness when programming this
is one of them this is one of the biggest bugs
in computing is people unleash
every ounce of cleverness they have on making
the buggy thing and they they they
have the perspective to deal with all of the interactions that
their cleverness wasn't so this is so
these two I think are quite complementary don't
you they actually fit together very
very nicely two different ways of showing
it this is a maximal human thinking bug
here so here this is what we are here
we are basically cave people with briefcases
we
like to think we're something better but
in fact this is what we're what we're dealing
with and the big problem
is that briefcase can hold nuclear weapons
the old days it only held
rocks and
we still get
the same old pachinko machine up there
and so this is a scaling problem
we weren't that dangerous even
when we wanted to be a hundred thousand years ago
because we just didn't yeah
we could whack somebody with a stick and but
you could actually rush somebody who's
gone nuts and whacking people with a stick
somebody's got an assault weapon or a nuclear weapon
you can own Russia
so this puts a qualitative
disaster on every horizon you
combine the two you get a yikes and
there's some really great cartoons here I'll read the captions
for you the one at the top is mr. Oompa
has simply worked here for ages
so I'm hoping now your minds are
thinking about whom business that is a lot
like hunting and gathering isn't it it's
not at all like the United States Constitution which
is all about cooperating it's actually all
about competition is all about wiping things
out it's
about short-term goals rather than long-term planning
but one on the bottom is even
better the guys saying AHA for
precisely how long were you a hunter and gather it
I'm
trying to make this entertaining but I'm hoping
you seeing that this is dead serious stuff
and so Carl
again he says we live in a society exquisitely dependent
on science and technology in which
knows anything about science and technology
and so
here's some RS words
and in spite of the fact that we
do a little science as far as the general population is
concerned on the entire planet including the u.s. we
really haven't gotten science into normal thinking
we haven't gotten scaling into normal thinking we haven't
gotten systems into normal thinking and we haven't gotten sustainability
and normal thinking these things are not actually
on anybody's top 10 list or
top 100 list most
people have not built up the background
for even thinking about these things and so
another way of looking at this is here
are four exquisite
systems that are all part
of one system that we actually deal with so
we have basically the system of the natural world
science we have behind the figure
there we have a crowd our
culture social systems this
is a picture of self portrait of the internet
representing technology all the technology
the logical systems we're doing and then we
have hundreds of systems that make us ourselves
up we are a system of systems
all of these systems are nonlinear
all of them are actually interacting with each other and
so if we don't actually get some systems consciousness
we aren't going to be able to
talk about sustainability is why I haven't said anything about technological
solutions to sustainability because
for
most people technology is a
perverse form of inverse vandalism
any but everybody
what i mean by in what does van vandalism is destroying
something because you can saying
i'm here to inverse vandalism is what
we engineers do we make things
because we can just because we can
this museum i went
through the exhibit hadn't been back
here for a while and i was struck by how
much crap there was
it's actually very confusing because it
is actually like a flea market where
there are a hundred thousand different items each one of which
one or two people thought
important that they went to the probably difficulty of actually
manufacturing these and yet
most of them are just complete crap
because I ideas are cheap
good ideas are hard the
regular ideas are a dime a dozen most of
them are mediocre down to bed and so
in order
things including what's wrong with our technology
we
can't we have to heat Einstein and tony hoare
is anybody here see the movie spy
game one of my favorites
and there's a line in here went
Robert Redford access his secretary
she's wondering why is he doing this now and he said when
did Noah build the ark before the flood Gladys before
the flood and so if you think about
what that means well our biggest problem
sustainability and all of these things is
we can't imagine nearly as well as we
can experience that
makes sense to
f the most amazing things and I've documented this and
I'm not going to burden you with them but it's
collected cases of
people who have
like dived into
a raging flood river to save a child
they've never seen before
some of these people were
asked whether they had
supported building higher
dams most of them hadn't
so one of the most interesting
things about it is how heroic we can be and on
each other's behalf when there's a disaster but
how blank we are when it comes to thinking
about the disaster that hasn't happened yet this
is why this new kind of imagination
is needed
another way looking at is because
we're talking everybody loves change how
many people here work for a business
o over I don't know 45 years or so
I've done most of my research at businesses and
every six
months or so there are meetings about
hey we have to re-engineer the system they there's
some phrase about and
everybody's enthusiastic about it because yes of course
we do you know we're fucking up all over the place of
course we have to fix it the school American
school system desperately needs to be fixed
no kidding so everybody
loves it except
he change part oh
no
so we can deal with something intellectually just
we can talk about sustainability but when it comes to actually
do it these other parts of the pachinko machine
kick in because almost all
changes are impugning our own reality
this is why especially religious
wars are so terrible because
once you've identified with a religion you
can't have a real discussion about it with somebody else
because at some point either you or they
are actually attacking your own identity
because you've tied us so closely to
this so this is why things rarely happen
it's sort of the low-pass filter
that takes every idea down to a dial tone
and we wind up coping
and way we cope is by
making things quote-unquote better
so here's a we
can put anything over here I've got 75
years there put anything could be learning
could be change anything anything
we need to get better at
and here's what we do in America we make this
graph every time that guy goes up
there's an article in the paper and people cheer
and every time it goes down there's an article
in the paper and people moan let's
say it's reading these are reading scores
that look familiar is it may be there
too going up reading is probably trending
yeah turns out it's completely irrelevant
because if you don't read that well you
aren't reading and the real
problem in America is almost no children are fluent in reading
enough to read for purpose
this whole system has been
game down to the point where these
things are deemed to be significant
where we're produced the nation that cannot do
anymore and the
conflict is usually between
this idea of better
well at least we're improving
least we're getting better then
there the other con the other extreme is but it's
not perfect never been
in a meeting between the betters and the perfect just
drives you crazy because they're both
completely wrong the
better guys are dealing in the news range they're
never going to get there if something new is needed the
guys are dealing in a place where the probability of getting
it at that level is zero
they're just too idealistic and
so what's what you need is a
sense of this above
threshold region which starts
the category called what is actually needed they
don't care whether it's better and we aren't going to get perfect
so we have to aim for what is needed
and
so this is what we did at Xerox
PARC so Nicholas gave you a little history
I'm not going to do that but
basically Xerox PARC hit the ball out of
the park maybe
15 times in a period of about five years
so included not just the
alto that the GUI object-oriented
programming the ethernet the whole laser
printer a whole bunch of other things each one of these things
were trillion dollar industries and the net
return from Xerox PARC today has been around
31 or 32 trillion dollars that
was done over a period of about five years by about two
dozen of us and if we
of those things it would have been actually we had luck
we were very lucky in
our manager you let us do what needed
to be done but when
you do it 15 times there's some process involved
there and part of the process is you have to
pick that little sweet spot there we actually
call it the McCready speed sweet spot McCready
is the guy who did man-powered flight so he is
one of the most amazing problem finders
and problem solvers to the point that he was in
the 20th century the
mechanical engineers of the world awarded him the
honor of being considered
to be the mechanical engineer of the 20th century
if you think about what things were
done in mechanical engineering of the 20th century this is an
almost unimaginable honor but this
guy deserved it and we
got a lot out of here's a great guy to to
talk to and work with and the
neat thing is once you hit that little
sweet spot you actually widen
up this area because you've learned something that
is like the things that you need to do and in
that range is usually where almost all of
good stuff is going to happen you're still not going to get up to perfection
but it doesn't matter because now you've got this incredibly
new fertile area and
a new way of dealing with this with this area
okay last slide
so it's not that adults are hopeless
by incredible
effort for
most of us we can learn a language starting at
age 40 we can
learn to play classical music starting at age 40
most of us don't have the
time I learned from silent in the classical
pipe organ starting at age 40 I had been a musician
before on other instruments
and I had one of those 40's crises
and I just
hated myself for not following this
felt need for
learning to play this music I love myself and
so finally when I was 40 my thought
well in five years i'm going to be 45 and i can either be an
organist or not and so I just grounded
out got up two and a half
hours earlier every day for
six years and
started getting to
be able to play these big pieces in a nice nice
way so it can be done but
it's really unreasonable for instance
to ask most teachers to learn
something in the midst of the incredible busy
same with parents parents are already busy so
I believe that the sweet spot for the
problems we've been talking about is not just education but
it's actually taking early childhood
education seriously because this is where you
can introduce new epistemological frameworks that are
not like the ones that we're born with you
can't get rid of the ones that we're born with like you don't want to get rid of stories
those are neat but you have to help the kids take
on a framework for thinking about things that's not story
like that has the character of scientific
explanations and so forth and so I'll
just leave you with that thought that the if we've
discovered the enemy and he is us from
Pogo then we also discovered
the solution and that's teaching
children in a much different way than we do now
very much should
I go over no you're perfect on time you had 32
seconds left Oh Sarek and that's time for one question
okay how about a good one
or comment if
you're in Italy you never get a question you always get whatever
they're feeling about that day
so if ya if our mush
is not good enough we built the web and we can collaborate
but collaboration doesn't work so how
do we think together and make it so well yeah
so the web to be so
there's some history and if you go down stairs you'll
there's a guy by the name of Douglas Engelbart you may
have heard of he's mostly famous for inventing the mouse which is
the least of his contributions but
his 1962 proposal
to ARPA who was his funder
was a basically
said most of the
important things in the world are done by adults cooperating
together and if computers are good for anything
they should be able to help coordinate
large-scale things in
the in the human in human good and so
the big problem with the web is its what
some of us old-timers call reinventing
the flat tire and if
you want to see that you can just look at the hour
and a half demo that angle Bart did in 1968
in San Francisco showing
his system working back then
and for that for us that was the embodiment of
one important part of personal
computing and you'll see things in there that are not
even done on the web today so
it's not a question that the that this is a
quaint old thing from the past and
the mistake that
Darwinian processes optimize they don't
Darwinian processings find fits to
the environment that they're in and
the fifth to the environment is a fit to a pop culture
which basically developed the web the
internet on the other hand is one of the greatest pieces of technology
ever design it was designed by experts and
there
could not be a larger contrast between the internet and this
web system that runs on top
of it so
so the question of
cooperation is
when once once you have trouble with a word
it's always good to ditch it right
so so real question is
not about can we cooperate when we're inclined
to do so but is there any way on the
internet to build up trust because
trust is the actual basis of
cooperation it's the basis
of so when I put groups together
going to i have my current group is spread out all
over the world but we
spend a lot of time together early on in
order to use all the different
kinds of communication including things that are quasi
face-to-face like skype
but even if you have a high res
cisco system you don't get
eye contact so as well so
way is that negroponte action is one of the one of the pioneers
of this so he did a big program that actually
got a golden police award from
Proxmire but it was a great program which is called
transmission of presence so the question
was what do you have to do to
be able to talk about this
talk about this argue about this argue about this would argue
about this but can you have a marital
argument over this technology
and get to the place where at
some point the key to the thing is whether they
feel you're sincere just from
the presents part of it and hardly
anybody has done this so this is an example what I think the
modern era to me is working on easy
problems and mostly doing inverse vandalism so
if you think of the real problems it really does have
to do with not just communicating about things we're
already more or less an agreement that's news but communicating
and collaborating about things where we have to establish
common ground hardly anything has been
done and so once again
you know looking into the anthropology books is the Axelrod book
about the evolution of collaboration which
is a very important one there's a recent
one by graber that is a fantastic i
fantastic graber he's written a number of books but
when I'm thinking of is called 5,000 years
of debt because the idea
of debt goes back as far as we've
been able to track any kind of society and
if you think about it that is one of the greatest ideas of all
time if you don't game it right
because debt allows you to
borrow from the future in a sensible way and
to make various kinds of contracts about
larger plans and you could ever do when
you're trying to do the balance sheets
every day and so the real question is
how can you take this incredible slightly invention of money
it's one of the great inventions of all time if you
don't game it because it's actually part of the meta system
gaming meta systems gets people in trouble so
the gray book if
you're interested GRA EV er is an american
anthropologist really
a very thoughtful book there's conman's
book some of you might have seen called
fast thinking and slow thinking Kahneman
by the way was the guy who first used
measure measurements of pupil dilation to
indicate in interest and I would have thought that
have been mentioned this morning because that's one of the things you'd
gauge is suppose you're trying to do online learning
we want not just eye
tracking but you need to be able to pick up psychological
signals that indicate with the student
is interested still and
maybe change things if the student you can sense the student
he kinds of things as a teacher would do face
reading a student so one
ways of looking at it this is great because hardly
anything has been done in the last 30 years except
exploiting Moore's law most of the ideas
we have today are roughly the ones that the 80 started
with like we're using the same user interface
we did it Park we're using the same blah blah blah
blah blah right using the ethernet the internet
all of those things so very little of of
import has happened there but it's been spread widely because
the costs and the
reliabilities have changed so drastically
so I think we're
place where it's time to go back to some of these fundamental
issues in large
part because of that nuclear weapon in in the
Cape guys briefcase thank
you thanks Alan